Category: Daniel Serwer
Step aside, please
I signed on yesterday to this appeal to President Biden to step aside with colleagues from the national security/foreign policy community:
Dear Mr. President:
We write as former U.S. officials who have strongly supported your presidency and your
initiatives to strengthen U.S. foreign and national security policy. We have welcomed the
measures you have taken to promote U.S. alliances in Europe, Asia, and the Americas; to
manage relations with great powers; and to address global issues such as climate change. These
initiatives have been built on your decades-long record of support for responsible U.S.
international engagement.
We also strongly endorse your urgent call for civility in the public debate, the critical importance
of which was underscored by the recent assassination attempt on former President Trump and the
tragic loss of life in Butler, Pennsylvania. Reasoned debate is essential to America’s democracy
and global leadership, which you have long championed.
With the deepest appreciation for your many decades of inspired leadership, we strongly believe
that ongoing concerns surrounding your continued candidacy and the growing likelihood of an
electoral college victory for Donald Trump put your national security accomplishments – and our
country and your legacy – at an unacceptable level of risk. Donald Trump’s vision, approach,
and expressed intentions concerning our nation’s security are in fundamental conflict with the
values and principles for which you have stood. We also are keenly aware of the comments you
made in March 2020, in which you indicated that you viewed yourself as “a bridge” to “an entire
generation of leaders” who represent the country’s future.
We strongly believe that now is the time to pass the mantle of leadership, and we respectfully
urge you to do so.
With deepest appreciation,
Gordan Adams
Former Associate Director for National Security Programs, Office of Management and Budget,
1993-1998
J. Brian Atwood
Former Under Secretary of State, former Administrator, USAID
Rick Barton
Former Assistant Secretary of State
James Keough Bishop
U.S Ambassador (Ret)
Robert Boorstin
Former NSC Senior Director
Ralph L. Boyce, Jr.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia (2001-2004) and Thailand (2004-2008)
Peter Bradford
Former Commissioner, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Kenneth Brill
Former U.S. Ambassador
Rosa Brooks
Former Counselor to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy
Scott Busby
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and former Director, National Security Council staff
Piper Campbell
Former U.S. Ambassador
Wendy J. Chamberlin
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Richard Christenson
Former Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassies in South Korea and Japan
Richard A Clarke
Former National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism
Steven Coffey
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights, Democracy, and Labor
Geoffrey Cowan
Former Director, Voice of America
Chester A. Crocker
Former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Peter Eicher
Former Deputy U.S. Representative to the UN Human Rights Commission.
Mark Fitzpatrick,
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-Proliferation (Acting)
Bennett Freeman
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor
Peter W Galbraith
Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia
Anthony W. Gambino
Former USAID Mission Director to the DR Congo
Larry Garber
Former Deputy Assistant Administrator, USAID
Jonathan S. Gration
Former U.S. Ambassador to Kenya
Holly Hammonds
Former Senior Director for International Economic Affairs, National Security and National
Economic Councils
William C Harrop
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Robert Herman
Former Member, U.S. State Department Policy Planning Staff
Paul Hughes
Former Deputy Director, Humanitarian Assistance and Anti-Landmine Policy, OASD (SOLIC),
Office of Secretary of Defense, and retired US Army Colonel
Karl F. Inderfurth
former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs (1997-2001)
Thomas C. Krajeski
Former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen and to Bahrain
Anthony Lake
Former National Security Advisor
David Lambertson
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Claudio A. Lilienfeld
Former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative
Frank Loy
Former Undersecretary of State
Jamie Metzl
Former National Security Council staff, 1997-1999, Senior Coordinator for International Public
Information, U.S. State Department, 1999-2001
Diane Orentlicher
Former Deputy for War Crimes Issues, U.S. Department of State
Susan W. O’Sullivan
Former Asia Director, State Department Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
Maria Otero
Former Undersecretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights
Ted Piccone
Former Associate Director, Policy Planning, U.S. Department of State, and former Director,
National Security Council staff
Charles L. Pritchard, Sr.
Former Ambassador and Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea;
Former Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Senior Director,
Asian Affairs, NSC
Susan Reichle
Senior Foreign Service officer (Ret), Counselor USAID (Ret)
Peter F. Romero
Former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of State
Barnett R. Rubin
Former Senior Advisor to the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (2009-2013)
David Sandalow
Former Under Secretary of Energy, former Assistant Secretary of State and former Senior
Director, National Security Council
Teresita C. Schaffer
Former U.S. Ambassador to Sri Lanka, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Near
East and South Asia
Eric Schwartz
Former Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration and former NSC
Senior Director
Tod Sedgwick
Former U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia
Daniel Serwer
Former Special Envoy, U.S. Department of State
John Shattuck
Former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Rights, and Labor and former Ambassador
to the Czech Republic
David B. Shear
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense
Derek Shearer
Former U.S. Ambassador to Finland
Tara Sonenshine
Former Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs
Daniel Spiegel
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva
Richard W. Teare
Former Ambassador to Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu
Richard Wilcox
Former Director, Multilateral and Humanitarian Affairs, National Security Council
E. Ashley Wills
Former Ambassador to Sri Lanka and The Maldives
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How the Democrats will win
How the Democrats will win
I am a registered Democrat. Unlike most of the media and virtually all Republicans, I believe the Democrats can and will win. This is how they will do it:
- Biden will withdraw as a candidate. Campaign contributions will balloon.
- The convention will enthusiastically select a new candidate, most likely Kamala Harris.
- She will choose as her vice president one of the younger Dems with a national security track record.
- Both will run on Biden’s economic and political record and against Trump’s unpopular platform. Or if you want the official version.
- Biden will campaign for her energetically in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
- She campaign nationally but focus extra attention on Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
- The Democratic Party will produce a first-rate get-out-the-vote campaign drawing on younger voters.
Every step will be fraught with peril, but it is doable. Ukraine and Gaza may haunt the candidate, but rarely does foreign policy decide an American election.
Biden has succeeded…
Ultimately the merits weigh heavily in favor of the Democrats. The economy is doing at least as well as under Trump. Energy production and exports are way up. Consumption and imports are happily down.
The only real demerit is persistent inflation, which is slowing. It could still reach the 2% target sometime in the fall. Unemployment is up from historic lows due to the Fed’s anti-inflation rate increases, but employment growth is still healthy. Despite Trump’s opposition, Congress is providing ample assistance to American science and industry, green technology, and Ukraine. Contrary to Trump’s assertions, violent crime is declining. So too is illegal immigration, due to Biden Administration action that may not hold up in court.
…Trump will not
Biden took action because the Republicans blocked legislation to better control the border. Many of them want to ban abortion and in vitro fertilization countrywide. Trump has said he intends to deport tens of millions of immigrants and fire tens of thousands of civil servants. Neither is feasible or desirable. Republicans defend the January 6 rioters. Two-thirds even want them pardoned. Trump is intending to give more tax breaks to rich Americans while raising taxes (via across-the-board tariffs) on people who spend rather than invest. That’s why some rich Silicon Valley types are supporting him:
Day Two
Trump has vowed to be a dictator on Day One. You don’t have to ask how he will govern on Day Two if he allowed that opportunity. Only someone prepared to ignore the will of the people would run on the Republican platform. Even after the disastrous debate and the controversy surrounding his competence since, Biden is no more than a couple of points behind Trump. Once the Biden cloud has passed, the sun will shine.
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Biden is toast, but don’t burn him
I expect President Biden will soon announce the withdrawal of his candidacy. That’s good. His decline since I saw him up close last winter is obvious. While I would still far prefer him to Trump, he is wise to throw in the towel. He has a fantastic record of restoring the country to sanity and steady economic growth, reknitting its alliances, appointing capable and diverse officials, getting a lot done on climate change, meeting the Russian challenge in Ukraine, shoring up defenses against China, and I could go on. Bowing out now ensures a positive legacy.
Challenges ahead
The rumor mill suggests the convention will be an “open” one with several candidates to replace Biden on top of the ticket. That seems to me a bad idea. It ensures a floor fight that will necessarily be divisive. It could also stimulate street demonstrations, which could get out of hand. I favor handing the baton to Kamala Harris. Biden has repeatedly avowed that she is ready to take over. He should let her do so.
The campaign against Trump will still be an uphill battle, no matter the candidate. The Democrats need not only to unify. They need to present a clear and compelling alternative to Trump’s lying, criminality, and immorality. He is a terrible candidate. That Biden in his weakened condition is still running neck and neck with him in the polls suggests the Democrats can recover from the last few weeks to win.
Biden can help
Biden can be a useful surrogate in the effort. He still has strong Democratic support and could help to get voters to the polls. He is a formidable fundraiser and a savvy political operative. His sterling record contrasts dramatically with the chaos and decline of Trump’s presidency. Biden may be toast, but it would be a mistake for any successor candidate not to use his record and his savvy.
Whoever the Democratic candidate, s/he should rely a good deal on Biden, whether or not he remains in the presidency. The mistake Al Gore made–not to rely on President Clinton’s record–should not be repeated. Biden has been a successful president. Running away from him would be a big mistake.
Trump is worse than too many think
I’m hearing wishful thinking about a second Trump term. To the contrary, it will be far worse than his first. Just listen to what he says. He wants to weaponize the Justice Department, claiming falsely that Biden has done it. He wants to cut taxes for the rich again and raise them on middle class people who (necessarily) spend most of their income. Trump will give Ukraine to Putin and won’t protect Taiwan. And he’ll support extremists in Israel who want to expel Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. If you think the world is problematic now, just wait until a new Trump presidency.
Trump will also use a return to the White House to deliver retribution to those who oppose him. Take it from the Australians:
Part II isn’t out yet.
And remember this: Trump deployed unidentifiable law enforcement personnel on the streets of Washington (and wanted them to fire on demonstrators), he has praised the January 6 rioters, he is a committed racist, and he has appointed Supreme Court Justices who think a woman shouldn’t be allowed to decide on her own health care. That’s in addition to being a rapist, a tax cheat, and a Russian asset. Trump is far worse than too many think.
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Trump will be tragic for Israel-Palestine
J Street sent this yesterday. I can’t do better:
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Justice demands the truth
Claudio Gatti, an Italian and American journalist, has updated the results of his decades-long inquiries into an incident known often in Italy simply as “Ustica” (or the strage di Ustica). That refers both to a small Italian island about 49 miles north of Palermo and the crash nearby of an Itavia DC-9 on June 27, 1980. The crash killed all 81 people aboard.
Forty-four years later, the cause of the Ustica crash is still unknown. The crew had no warning. There is no evidence of mechanical failure. Experts have (mostly) discarded the hypothesis of a bomb on board. Gatti examines other hypotheses involving a American, French, Italian, or Libyan missile. Justice demands the truth.
What didn’t happen
He concludes that none of these hypotheses is valid.
There is technical evidence favoring a missile. The downing of the aircraft might have been a mistake. I often noted while Deputy Chief of Mission in Rome 1990-93, and still believe, the Americans could not have kept such a mistake secret. The French or Italians, who some imagine to have mistaken the plane for one in which Qaddafi was traveling, had other, better options for killing him. Qaddafi himself claimed to be the target, but the Libyans have never provided evidence that he was flying (or planned to fly) in the area that night. The Libyans had no motive, even if the later crash in Sicily of a Libyan MIG raised questions about their possible involvement.
The decades since the incident are replete with suspicious behavior, missing data, allegations of coverups, military and technical incompetence, and conspiracy theories. These are standard in Italy. The judiciary, sometimes more serious than the journalism, has failed to elucidate the cause.
What might have happened
Gatti, whom I have known for decades (caveat emptor), thinks he knows the answer: Israel. His theory is that Prime Minister Begin, worried (literally) sick about Iraq’s acquisition of nuclear technology from France and Italy, authorized the downing of a plane carrying weapons-grade enriched uranium fuel for the Osiraq reactor. The Israelis destroyed that in an air raid a year later. Gatti thinks the Israeli pilots, operating in low-visibility conditions at the outer limits of their capabilities, mistook the Itavia plane for one that was supposed to be traveling a similar route.
I won’t rehearse all the details. This RAI documentary by Luca Chianca deals with some of them. I play a minor role there saying no more than intended here. I don’t believe the Americans did it. The Israelis had the technical means to do it. But I have no idea whether they did.
Caveat emptor here as well. I was involved in the late 1970s in American diplomatic efforts to prevent the Italians from transferring nuclear technology to Iraq. I now wonder whether preventing Israel from taking military action motivated my vigorous State Department instructions.
Gatti offers much more in his Il Quinto Scenario: Atto Secondo, but that is available only in Italian. The evidence for an Israeli missile downing the DC-9 is compelling. But not quite a smoking gun. It passes what the experts term a “hoop test.” As in jumping through a hoop. The facts, as best he thinks them determined, are consistent with Israeli culpability. The hypothesis thus fulfills a necessary but not sufficient criterion.
More investigation is needed
In the absence of competitive hypotheses, more investigation is warranted. It is appalling to think any state would down a passenger plane. But of course it has happened in the past. The Israelis downed a Libyan Arab Airlines Boeing 727 in 1973 when it unintentionally flew over Israeli-occupied Sinai. And it could happen again.
The Ustica mystery needs a solution. The families of 81 people should not have to live with uncertainty about what happened. Justice demands the truth, whatever it may be.
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Democracy matters, but so does the candidate
2024 is a year replete with elections. The most important, not only for the US but also for much of the rest of the world, is not until November 5. We are already more than halfway there. How are things going?
The good news
Pretty well. In India, France, the United Kingdom, South Africa, Pakistan, Macedonia, Mexico, and Taiwan electorates have demonstrated reduced support for regimes in power while either maintaining the incumbents or installing reasonable moderates.
Even in Iran, where elections are unfair due to prior regime selection of candidates and unfree due to regime control of the media, voters chose a relative moderate.
The European Parliament has likewise remained mainly in the hands of relative moderates, despite gains by right-wing nationalists:
These are by my lights good outcomes.
The bad news
Unfree and unfair elections elsewhere did what elections do in autocracies. They confirmed the autocrats. Vladimir Putin and Bashar al Assad enjoy that, but it convinces no one but themselves of their legitimacy.
In the US, we are in the midst of a chaotic campaign. Joe Biden’s poor debate performance has shaken some of his Democratic supporters, hurt his fundraising, and reduced his odds against Donald Trump:
The situation is even worse in battleground states that will decide the outcome in the Electoral College. Both candidates are unpopular, but Biden is more unpopular:
This is strange. The former president gave tax breaks to the rich, responded with confusion to the COVID-19 epidemic, hired many officials who have been indicted for felonies, failed to fulfill many promises, and diminished American prestige and influence abroad. The current president has presided over a dramatic economic recovery, provided relief to the middle class, mobilized against climate change, and made America the envy of much of the world.
However much I may disagree with the prevailing judgment about the candidates, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Biden is in serious trouble.
That could change
That could change of course. Americans could wake up and realize that Trump is more cognitively impaired than Biden. He rarely completes an intelligible sentence. No one really knows what he wants. Voters could start wondering about someone whose supporters aim to eviscerate the civil service, ban abortion and then birth control countrywide, and impose more tariffs American consumers will pay on imported goods. Or my fellow-citizens could develop a sudden aversion to someone convicted of 34 felonies and indicted on dozens of other felony counts in multiple jurisdictions. Not to mention his decades of partying with Jeffrey Epstein and underage girls.
Americans could also wake up to President Biden’s virtues. The economy has more than fully recovered from the COVID-19 recession, taxes, medical expenses, and student loan payments for middle and lower income Americans are down, and inflation is cruising to a soft landing. Pete Buttigieg gets it right:
Not many Transportation Secretaries can do this.
But the odds aren’t good
All that said, Biden is in trouble. Kamala Harris is a viable candidate. Rob Reiner has echoed George Clooney well:
We love and respect Joe Biden. We acknowledge all he has done for our country. But Democracy is facing an existential threat. We need someone younger to fight back. Joe Biden must step aside.
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