Category: Daniel Serwer
Stevenson’s army, February 19
Stay current with NYT’s Ukraine updates.
WSJ reportsRussian missile tests.
I strongly recommend signing up for Politico’s Nat Sec Daily. It has a lot of original reporting and nuggets not widely seen. Such as this: Leaders in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, known as the DNR and LNR, urged an immediate evacuation of potentially more than 3 million people to Russia over unproven claims that Ukrainian forces planned to attack, an accusation Kyiv firmly denies. Savvy journalists, however, found the metadata attached to the videos ordering civilians to urgently flee to the safety of Mother Russia were recorded two days ago.
WSJsays DOD intelligence hampered by workplace harassment problems.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Putin’s ugly war of choice
Today the de facto authorities in the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine are ordering the mass evacuation of civilians to Russia. Supposedly in response to the threat of a Ukrainian attack, this is classic self-cleansing. Its purpose is to create a free-fire zone without a friendly civilian population and to cast the adversary as an ethnic cleanser.
Putin is determined
President Putin appears determined to use force once again in Ukraine. He succeeded eight years ago in the occupation and annexation of Crimea as well as his use of Russian and proxy forces to establish rebel zones in Donbas. Why not try again? With luck, Ukrainian resistance might collapse altogether and allow Moscow to set up a puppet government in Kyiv. More likely, Russian forces will succeed in extending their area of control along the Sea of Azov, perhaps going as far as Crimea.
In the meanwhile, NATO will be reinforcing its forces in the eastern-most member states, something Russia says it doesn’t want. They will also be trying to decide on the sanctions required to respond to Russian aggression. Putin is betting the Alliance will split on that issue and reduce the sanctions to the lowest common denominator. Net result: a NATO military presence that doesn’t really threaten Russia and a falling out among Russia’s adversaries.
Europe whole and free in smithereens
Once the smoke clears, the idea of “Europe whole and free” will be in smithereens. A new curtain will have descended. It won’t be made of iron. On one side will be Lukashenko, the Russian proxies in Moldova and Georgia, Armenia and the central Asian ‘stans. On the other side will be NATO and EU members. Others will either need to choose which sphere of influence they wish to align with or reinvigorate the idea of non-alignment that Serbia and others already champion.
NATO expansion is still possible
It is anyone’s guess how many people will be killed in Putin’s effort to convince the Americans that Ukraine can’t be allowed to decide whether it wants to join NATO. Putin already knows that Ukrainian membership is impossible now and for the foreseeable future, because all of NATO’s 30 member states would need to approve. I doubt even a majority would favor Ukraine’s accession at this point.
But that doesn’t mean NATO won’t expand. Russian behavior in the Baltic and aggression in Ukraine is already well on the way to convincing Sweden and Finland that NATO membership would be a good idea. Both are well-equipped and trained. But neither has the means to defend itself on its own. The NATO door may well be open to both well-ordered and consolidated democracies.
Net results
Putin has succeeded in getting America’s attention and reasserting Russia’s claim to superpower status. The invasion may well split the Alliance on the issue of sanctions. Ukraine will be divided at best and subjugated at worst. But NATO forces will be far stronger and closer to Russia after this war than before it. Moscow will be saddled with an enormous reconstruction burden as well as sanctions.
The biggest known unknown is how Russians will react. This war will belie Putin’s claim of brotherhood with Ukrainians and undermine the Russian economy. Moscow has tried hard to hide the body bags coming back from its military ventures in Syria and Libya. But Russians are not supportive of war in Ukraine and hiding the body bags may be much harder in a ground war of these dimensions. A Russian told me long ago: “We support our czars until we don’t. Then we get rid of them quickly.” Putin’s ugly war of choice could be ugly not only for Ukraine and NATO, but also for him.
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Stevenson’s army, February 18
– Reuters has details on emerging Iran nuclear deal.
-WaPo has background on French withdrawals from Africa.
– GAO assesses DOD competition with China.
– Politico says Congress deferred to Biden on sanctions.
– CISA reports Russian hacking of defense contractors.
– UVA study finds more proof of Big Sort — people forming like-minded political communities.
– NYT reports pressure in Senate to shorten roll calls.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 17
– Dan Drezner discusses loss of trust in US military.
– Reuters says Biden wants big increase in defense spending.
– WaPo says Bolsonaro moves closer to Putin.
–US & Russian planes come too close in Med.
– FredKaplan notes tradeoffs in possible Russian recognition of Donbas.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Putin still has dirty tricks up his sleeve
Russian President Putin has suggested he is withdrawing some forces from around Ukraine. No Westerner has yet confirmed this. President Biden yesterday cited a new, higher number: 150,000 troops. That is 20,000 more than previously reported in the media. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has said there was no evidence of troop withdrawal yet.
Russian plans
But even if true, Putin’s hint at troop withdrawal may betoken little. He never had enough troops surrounding Ukraine to invade and occupy the entire country. More than likely the Russian plan is to take a relatively small portion. My bet has been on a push in the south to extend the Russian area of control along the Sea of Azov as far as Ukrainian forces permit. The troops in Belarus to the north and Transnistria in the west would do just enough to prevent Ukraine from redeploying forces to counter the real offensive in the south.
It is also possible Russia will not use overt military force but rely instead, as it did in Donbas in 2014, on proxy forces backed by Russians with no overt insignia. Or Putin could use “private” security forces like the Wagner Group. This would be risky militarily, as Ukrainian forces have improved a good deal. But the domestic political backwash from losses would be lessened. It is also possible NATO member states would turn a blind eye, or at least reduce their reaction, to the use of proxy forces.
Military action is not Russia’s only option. Just keeping enhanced forces on Ukraine’s border will create uncertainty, which discourages investors and raises insurance rates. Disinformation does likewise. Moscow presumably has enough minimally credible intelligence on Ukrainian malfeasance to launch innumerable attacks on its ruling elite. Where the Russians lack information, they are good at inventing it. Moscow can also rent crowds to create disorder and sponsor terrorist attacks mounted to look like attacks on ethnic Russians. Russian hackers have penetrated Ukraine’s cyberspace, raising the likelihood of continuing attacks on critical computer capabilities.
The Western reaction
The White House has been revealing Moscow’s plans in order to preempt them. This has been an effective tactic. The National Security Council has reportedly prepared an extensive playbook on how to react to various scenarios. We should hope this includes non-military ones. Putin is good at using all the elements of national power to undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia’s neighbors. The West has to be at least as agile, and punishing, in response. Washington has repeated ad infinitum the mantra “Europe whole and free.” It was an attractive proposition in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse.
But Europe whole and free isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Putin has made his choice: Russia is now an autocracy with imperial aspirations in its neighborhood. He will need to defend those aspirations as well as his own hold on power with whatever means he has available, because many Russians and most Europeans and Americans won’t be interested in helping him. Putin still has lots of dirty tricks up his sleeve.
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Stevenson’s army, February 16
– USTR report says China has failed to live up to trade commitments.
– FP lists new US economic restrictions on China.
– Lawfare analyzes DOD report on China’s Military Power.
– NYT says US intel on Russia has improved, especially regarding military. But CFR sees dilemmas in what to reveal.
– NYT says Russia is courting Latin America
-WaPo says Russian hackers have penetrated deeply in Ukraine.
–Senators can’t agree on Russia sanctions, divided over NordStream2
– GAO notes high level of congressional report requirements on DOD – 1,429 in 2020.
In class I mentioned how presidents can increase their legal authorities by signing statements refusing to enforce laws passed by Congress. Biden did that in approving NDAA.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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