Category: Daniel Serwer
Stevenson’s army, February 6
All you really need today is the NYT:
– It reveals Ukraine briefing to Congress, emphasizing Russian capabilities despite uncertain intentions.
– It reminds how Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.
– It surveys US options, noting defense of Ukraine is off the table.
– And it details the strange recent career of former LtGen Mike Flynn.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 4
– WaPo has the best tick-tock on the raid that killed the ISIS leader.
– Fed Kaplan assesses how the war on terror is going.
– NYT reveals how Putin has sanctions-proofed Russia.
– US reveals more Russian planning for pretexts for Ukraine war.
-WSJ says even renewed Iran nuclear deal will leave it within 12 months of a bomb.
-State Dept approves new Mideast arms sales.
-Documents show Trump WH considered using NSA to gather election info.
– Wired says an independent US hacker took down North Korea’s internet.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 3
In class on Monday we talked about non-papers, the documents used in interagency meetings and international diplomacy to allow ideas to be offered as suggestions rather than demands or promises. They are useful because they don’t create a paper trail of concessions if the end result is a compromise. [Congress has a similar approach, saying “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”]
Now we have an actual example. The US response to Russia’s demands on Ukraine was in the form of a non-paper. A Spanish newspaper got a copy and has the story and a downloadable copy here. BEWARE: if you have a security clearance, you are not supposed to access or copy a classified document [Confidential in this case] on an unclassified device.
In other news…
– US special forces conducted a raid in Syria overnight. Biden says it killed a terrorist leader.
– NYT’s David Sanger suggests US may be pushing Putin too far over Ukraine.
– SFRC ranking member Risch is releasing a report critical of the US witrhdrawal from Afghanistan, due to be posted on his SFRC website.
Today is the day Austin & Blinken will be giving classified briefings to House & Senate on Ukraine. Watch for comments/leaks afterward.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Dialogue will work when people support it
Koha today published an interview I gave yesterday to Besjana Bajrami:
Q: Do you think that this year will bring the final recognition between Kosovo and Serbia?
A: No, I don’t. I don’t see any sign the leadership in either country is preparing for a final recognition agreement.
Why is it stuck?
Q: Where do you think the dialogue is stuck?
A: It’s stuck in the domestic politics of both countries. Neither President Vucic nor Prime Minister Kurti sees the benefit of agreements, especially a comprehensive one.
Mutual benefit is the way forward
Q: Emissaries from the US and the EU are staying in Kosovo for dialogue. The same after the meetings with Prime Minister Kurti and President Osmani have stated that a solution must be found for dialogue. Where do you think the solution should be sought in Kosovo or Serbia?
A: I think the way forward now is what worked in the past: focus on issues with real benefits to citizens in both countries. That worked before 2013. I also think there is a big need for monitoring of implementation of past agreements. The EU and US should do that together.
Q: Do you think that Kosovo is being pressured regarding the dialogue?
A: Of course. Serbia will also be pressured. But I don’t think pressure is the key. Mutual benefit is the key.
Missing persons should not be stalled
Q: The topic of missing persons has somehow stalled in dialogue. Should Kosovo continue the dialogue if the issue of missing persons is not resolved?
A: I do not understand why the issue of missing persons has not been resolved. It is standard procedure to resolve such issues after war. It is best done promptly. Twenty years is not prompt.
The Association depends on context
Q: Should the Association of Serb Municipalities in Kosovo be allowed? The answer to this question depends on context. If Serbia were prepared to recognize Kosovo and advocate its UN membership, an association consistent with the Kosovo constitution would not, I think, look as troubling as it does today.
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Stevenson’s army, February 2
– Senate Democrats have lost their majority for the time being. Sen. Lujan [D-NM] is hospitalized following a stroke. Since the Senate, unlike the House, does not allow remote voting, at most 49 Democrats can vote on any measure. This complicates passage of appropriations packages [Feb 18 deadline] as well as other Biden proposals.
-China weighs in — supporting Russia over Ukraine and seeking to gain influence in the Middle East.
– Stimson Center has a report on US military aid to Ukraine.
– The scathing George Packer article on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Betrayal, is mainly a story about the botched efforts to arrange evacuation of former Afghan employees. Axios has a leaked memo of a last-minute Deputies Committee meeting on the topic, showing how far behind the curve the USG was as Kabul fell.
-Lawfare has interesting legal analyses: how Congress has limited the use of special envoys for diplomacy and how the US can still assert legal principles in the South China Sea despite failure to ratify UNCLOS.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 1
– Summits lead to deals. Qatar’s leader met with Biden and won “Major Non-NATO Ally status” CNN has background. Qatar promised help with the Taliban.
– Archives confirmed what Politico and others reported previously: President Trump often shredded documents which by law should have been preserved; so they’ve been taped together.
– There’s also more evidence that Trump sought DOD or DHS to seize voting machines.
– North Korea is bragging about its missile tests.
– NYT looks for patterns in recent African coups.
– [This came up in class Monday] FT analyzes German internal debates over Russia and Ukraine.
– Location matters.Both Boeing and Airbus promise to build new tankers in US.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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