Category: Daniel Serwer
We know for sure there will be surprises
The New Year doesn’t look all that happy: Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine, China is threatening Taiwan, Iran is progressing toward nuclear weapons, the Taliban are retrogressing, and ongoing conflicts in many parts of the world remain unresolved (Syria, Somalia, Yemen, Israel/Palestine…). COVID-19 is appearing in its most virulent version yet. Flights are being cancelled worldwide, school openings after the holidays are at risk, recovering economies are teetering, democracies are faltering, and autocracies are proclaiming victory.
I am still optimistic, partly because it is far easier to improve from a lousy situation than from a good one. This applies in particular to COVID. The Omicron version is far more in infectious than even its Delta predecessor, but it also appears to be less deadly. Evolution favors a mutant virus that spreads easily, not one that kills its host. That’s good news. COVID is on its way to becoming endemic and far less acute. Not quite the common cold, but closer to it than the disease we have seen ravage the world over the past two years, at least for those who get vaccinated and don’t have pre-existing conditions.
The Russian threat to Ukraine is looking like a negotiating ploy, albeit a dangerous one that could still lead to military action. Moscow wants Washington to agree that Ukraine and other former Soviet states will never join NATO but become instead Russian fiefdoms. It also wants NATO to withdraw forces from member states that border the Russian “near abroad.” The former is a non-starter. The latter is conceivable. Remember that Kennedy withdrew (obsolete) missiles from Turkey to get Soviet missiles out of Cuba. A full-scale invasion of Ukraine seems unlikely at this point, but President Putin could still opt to expand the area controlled by the insurgents he backs or to seize critical infrastructure he envies, if Washington is uncompromising.
A full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan is also unlikely. Cross-strait trade is enormous: $150 billion or so. Millions of Taiwanese visit China each year and millions more Chinese visit Taiwan. Taiwanese are big investors in China and Chinese are big investors in Taiwan. These economic relations do not preclude political tension, in particular over Taiwan’s status, but they will make Beijing hesitate to try to seize Taiwan by force. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US, Japan, and South Korea all have interests in ensuring its independence (not its sovereignty). China can make life hard for Taiwan and squeeze it for political concessions, but violating its air space is a long way from an amphibious assault on its coasts.
Iran’s nuclear progress is looking unstoppable. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are no doubt trying to match it, quietly so as not to arouse the US. A Middle East nuclear arms race is an ugly prospect, but it is not one that in the first instance threatens the US. We are going to have to learn to live with it, hoping that the Iranians decide not to go all the way but rather remain a “threshold” nuclear state. Actually making and deploying nuclear weapons would put all of Iran at risk of an Israeli nuclear strike, a scenario bad enough to make even hardliners in Tehran hesitate.
It is hard to be as sanguine about some of the other conflicts. Syrian President Bashar al Assad is not going anywhere, but the conflict there is no longer killing as many people as once it did. Nor are the Houthis and Taliban likely to stop oppressing Yemenis and Afghans, though there too the killing has likely passed its peak. Arab/Israeli relations have generally improved with the Abrahamic accords, but that has made peace with the Palestinians look even more distant. Why should Israel concede a state to Ramallah if the Gulf Arabs are willing to recognize Israel (either de facto or de jure) without insisting on it? In Somalia, DRC, Myanmar and some other states conflict and instability are now endemic. Like COVID-19, it is hard to see how they could get rid of its entirely.
So the world isn’t pretty on the first day of 2022. But like the domestic situation, I think it marginally more likely to improve than to deteriorate. Of course that assumes no surprises. The one thing we know for sure is that there will be surprises, which usually don’t bode well.
Happy New Year!
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 1
Best wishes for a happy one!
– WSJ says big winners in Afghanistan were private contractors.
– NYT says Kabul airport suicide bomber had recently been released from prison.
Many sites have “best of year” collections. Here’s WOTR’s. Here’s one from the Economist. FP has a future cast.
And here’s a search engine that doesn’t have ads in your results.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 31
– WaPo reports the Taliban are behaving like the Taliban.
– NYT reports what’s being said about Biden-Putin call.
– SAIS Prof Frank Gavin assesses Biden’s first year.
– Here’s the 2022 congressional calendar.
The NDAA is now public law 117-81. The 910 page measure is here.Three sections, totaling 68 pages, cover “Matters relating to other nations” — foreign policy in the defense policy bill. The law also contains 19 pages of what’s called a State Department Authorization Bill, but it’s pretty skinny. The Department of Homeland Security gets 24 pages of new laws. And cyber matters take up 52 pages. As I’ve often said in class, the NDAA is now the everything bill, and it gives the defense committee people a key role in all foreign policy legislation.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
A blue future, but there’s a big if
I’ve written little in recent days, mainly because I spent the Christmas holiday plus in San Antonio Texas, where my younger son, his wife, and their daughter live. It’s difficult to focus on the Russian threat to Ukraine while enjoying your only grand daughter in a city far not just from the maddening crowd but from the even more maddening international policy community.
Some readers will think I might have been politically uncomfortable in Texas, whose state leadership is leading the extremist right on voting rights, abortion, and lots of other issues. But that would be wrong. San Antonio, while not as blue as DC (slmost nowhere is), is still cerulean. At least in Alamo Heights, a mostly privileged part of town, lawn signs declare black lives matter more often than they tout Donald Trump. In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump in San Antonio 58/40. The city is majority minority, with a 64% LatinX population, more often still referred to there as Hispanic. Even among the inhabitants of the mansions of Terrell Hills, Biden won 2/1.
Atlanta, Georgia, where I spent Thanksgiving, is likewise blue, though to my surprise its population is only 1/3 black. I’m surprised because the inner city districts I frequent, though gentrifying apace, seem heavily populated by young, up-and-coming black professionals, in addition to some older long-time black residents. As in San Antonio, outlying areas are more white, and red, but the recent in-migrants are mostly white. Biden won in the center city (Fulton County) by an astounding 83/16, but he also won in surrounding counties by lesser margins.
Both cities have a good vibe. The commercial districts I witnessed were thriving, if not always bustling. The contrast with downtown and Chevy Chase DC is striking. Both of these former upscale shopping districts are now a wasteland of empty storefronts. It will take the better part of a decade to recover, if not longer. In Atlanta, the commercial areas adjacent to the Beltline are hopping. In San Antonio, the Lincoln Heights and Quarry shopping centers are not quite as hip, but their parking lots are full.
I can’t say much about the people in Atlanta and San Antonio, as epidemic conditions kept older people like us mostly isolated. In San Antonio, it is striking how many people walking on the street greet you with “how are you doing,” without expecting an answer. In Atlanta, a wave is all you usually get, which is true in DC too. In Atlanta and San Antonio, the driving is respectful of pedestrians on the side streets, but on the main drags pedestrians are not much better than stray dogs. In DC, the driving on side streets is a bit less respectful but on the main drags isn’t quite as fast and careless.
City infrastructure in Atlanta and San Antonio leaves a lot to be desired compared to DC, where the city has used the two years of epidemic to repave and re-sidewalk a good part of at least the affluent Northwest. I got a pot hole filled within a few days in front of my house just by reporting it on line. Atlanta and San Antonio have sidewalks, where they exist, that are often decrepit and streets that are worse. I don’t know about San Antonio, but local taxes in DC and Atlanta are comparable–perhaps even a bit higher in Atlanta. There and in San Antonio high school football stadiums seem preferred to decent cityscape.
The cars available in these three cities are the same, but the local preferences are different. In San Antonio, the availability of hybrids and all-electric cars seems to have encouraged the purchase of upscale behemoths. There are also many more large pickup trucks and SUVs in Texas, where size really does seem to matter. Or perhaps vehicle size compensates for the anatomical. Size seems to matter less in DC and Atlanta, though the latter sports a striking number of people who believe driving without a muffler is manly.
I can’t say anything about culture in these three cities, as it has now been a long time since I’ve enjoyed a major performance or museum. DC has a pair of fabulous small opera companies–the In Series and Bel Cantanti–that I’m pretty sure aren’t matched in San Antonio or Atlanta. San Antonio is hosting a road version of Hamilton, which has also been seen in Atlanta and DC. It’s a good thing they called it a rap musical. Had it been labelled what it is–an opera–I doubt many would have seen it. I look forward to the day it appears at the Met.
We are all worried these days about Omicron, even if Atlanta and San Antonio are noticeably less masked than DC. Masked, I got chastised for getting too close to someone (also masked) on the check-out line at Walgreens in San Antonio. But the virus is in its last, less sickening but more contagious, phase. This makes sense, as evolution favors contagion, not deadliness. There is a lot of doom and gloom among those who worry about hospital capacity, anti-vaxxers, flight cancellations, and people who try to get on aircraft unmasked.
I’m preferring to think that we can look forward to increasingly blue cities that get the less deadly Omicron under control and can hope for economic revival as well as declining political strife. The only real question is whether urban votes will be allowed to count equally with those in less populated areas. The future is blue, if everyone’s vote counts equally. That’s a big if.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 30
– NYT reports what US officials expect from today’s Biden-Putin call.
– AEI’s Kori Schake says Russia is being deterred.
– Other analysts think naval action more likely.
– WSJ says Biden’s trade policy conflicts with alliance repair.
– I agree with WOTR article that unmanned systems often have unrecognized costs.
– NYT has best obit on Harry Reid. I still regret his ending of filibuster on nominations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 28
– WSJ reports on decline of civility in Congress because of Jan. 6 insurrection.
– NYT reports power struggle in Somalia.
– Biden signs NDAA, which allows $25 Billion increase for defense over current CR. But remember, this is a policy bill, not a money bill.
– WSJ sees Hispanic shift toward GOP.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
