Category: Daniel Serwer

Stevenson’s army, June 28

US air strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iranian-linked militias. NYT backgroundOfficial release.
UN told Russian mercenaries commit war crimes in Africa.
Bruce Riedel remembers the Khobar Towers bombing 25 years ago. He notes how US retaliated against Iran. The incident also led to a civ-mil clash when SecDef Cohen wanted to punish senior officers and USAF Chief of Staff wanted to punish only those immediately responsible. The chief retired early in quiet protest. For me it was a clash between the Navy and Air Force approaches to command responsibility.
Fred Kaplan reviews West Point’s long history of teaching about race.
Tucker Carlson attacks Gen.Milley.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , , , , ,

Stevenson’s army, June 26 late edition

Charlie Stevenson writes:

[I try to keep my political opinions in my pocket, but this was too much.]

One of the indicators of how tribal America’s political parties have become is that large numbers of people say they would object if their child wanted to marry someone from the different party. In the 1960s, the figure was about 5%. Now it’s around 30%.

What’s even more troubling is that similar numbers now believe that the other party is a danger to the country. A CBS News poll last January, after the insurrection at the Capitol, found that  more than half of Republicans and more than 40 percent of Democrats tend to think of the other party as “enemies,” rather than “political opponents.”

As a Republican who converted to Democrat, I guess I have been more rational and calculating than ideological and emotional about party allegiance, but I understand how strong partisan feelings have become. And partisanship now embraces more than politics: co-partisans like the same beverages, cars, entertainment, and so forth.

But there should be limits. And some Republican members of Congress are going far beyond legitimate partisanship.

It’s one thing for an opposition party to fight the other side on everything, whether petty or significant. It’s undemocratic, however, for the opposition to reject and undermine legitimate processes and outcomes. When Congress counted the electoral votes for president, 147 Republicans voted against one of more slates, thus overruling a certified election. That’s not consistent with supporting and defending the Constitution.

I agree with the Tom Mann/Norm Ornstein analysis that the GOP moved earlier and much further to the right than Democrats have moved to the left. I also believe that Donald Trump won a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and that the bulk of its leadership has turned it into a cult, wedded to his whims and outrages.

Some of its members are not only spreading falsehoods, but they are fomenting civil disorder. I was especially outraged by Pennsylvania congressman Scott Perry, a retired brigadier general in the Army national guard [!],calling all Democrats dangerous Nazi-like fascists.

“They are not the loyal opposition. They are the opposition to everything you love and believe in,” Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Scott Perry said of Democrats as he concluded a speech to the conservative Pennsylvania Leadership Conference on June 11. “Go fight them.”

“Ladies and gentlemen, there’s a plan,” he said ominously after accusing Democrats of trying to intentionally destroy America’s economy by causing runaway inflation and oil scarcity. “They’ll tell you they’re patriots. But the patriots like the patriots in this room must acknowledge that things are different now. They want to destroy the country that you grew up in. They want to destroy the country that the founders made. That is their plan. That is their goal. That’s why they’re doing these things.”

When elected members of Congress resort to this kind of language, it does change minds. I now fear that the GOP is a real danger to the country.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Stevenson’s army, June 26

Not good news. Tucker Carlson.Trump.Stephen Miller.
US will keep 650 [or more] troops in Afghanistan after “withdrawal.”
EU rejects Macron-Merkel call for summit with Putin
Biden-Ghani meeting

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , ,

Stevenson’s army, June 24

WSJ says new intelligence assessment says Afghan government could collapse as soon as 6 months after US withdrawal.
In testimony Wednesday, Gen. Milley was less pessimistic. Austin and Milley told a Senate hearing last week they believe there is a “medium” risk of terrorist groups regaining strength in Afghanistan, saying it could happen in two years. Presumably President Biden considers these risks acceptable. This reminds me of the Nixon & Kissinger view that they needed a “decent interval” between the end of US combat in Vietnam and the collapse of Saigon. Here’s some of the evidence: Wikipedia;  the Nixon tapes; and Kissinger’s handwritten notes. Here’s another summary.
In other news, the debt ceiling looms with no clear plan.
Earmarks are popular.
And SAIS prof Vali Nasr says an Iran deal is possible.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , ,

Stevenson’s army, June 23

– In keeping with their commitment to give Congress their personal & professional views when asked, the JCS have expressed concerns about military justice reform, though CJCS Milley says he has an “open mind” on changing the process for sexual harassment complaints.  Meanwhile, SecDef Austin endorsed the change.
-On Lawfare, writers say China is more likely to subvert Taiwan than to invade.
-US has seized and shut down some Iranian-linked websites.
CFIUS is blocking Chinese purchase of a South Korean chip company.
– NYT says some Saudis involved in Khashoggi killing got prior military training in US.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , , ,

The Western Balkans the day after Covid-19 won’t be better

Alexandros P. Mallias, former Ambassador of Greece to the US and member of the International Advisory Council of the Greek House Davos, said in remarks to the Greek House Davos/Thessaloniki Forum June 10:

The Balkan region will not look much different after Covid-19 unless there develops a genuine sense of political accountability. Politics is meant to serve, not the other way around. Political egotism, nepotism and corruption adversely affect citizen expectations throughout the region. The region’s politicians –some at least—appear failing their countries, their peoples, and themselves.

This can change. The remedies include:

  • Enhanced involvement of the younger generations, which need opportunities to participate. Politics should not be the privilege of self-styled elites.
  • Independent judiciaries, which are needed to hold politicians accountable. In much of the Balkans the courts are subject to political influence.

In addition, change will require the region to rid itself of other endemic infections, especially unreliable, aggressive, and authoritarian politics. The processes of NATO and EU accession offer appropriate and calibrated sticks and carrots. Aristotle put it well in The Nicomachean Ethics: “impose punishments and penalties upon malefactors and bestow honors on those doing fine actions.”

Proposed changes in borders, and associated forced exodus of populations, could renew conflict in the Balkans once Covid-19 is gone. Such proposals are now circulated without names attached, as no one wants to own their paternity. But behind closed doors key political figures in Western Balkan countries have contemplated the idea. International players even appeared to be backing it, though denying authorship.

Such proposals would open Pandora’s box, which cannot be easily close. They will be used as alibis for malfeasance in the Caucasus, Crimea, and elsewhere. Border changes start with a known beginning but risk a hazardous end. The EU, US, and states of the region should rule out land and population swaps in the Western Balkans, lest the end of Covid-19 initiate an even less controllable contagion.

Tags : , ,
Tweet