Category: Daniel Serwer
Stevenson’s army, May 31
[In memory of my ancestor, Captain Levi Ely of the Massachusetts militia, killed at the battle of Stone Arabia, October 19, 1780.]
– LTG [Ret.] Mike Flynn calls for a coup.
– Politico says the Danes helped NSA spy on Merkel.
– North Korea criticizes US decision on South Korea.
– Susan Glasser of the New Yorker wonders about threats to American democracy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 30
We really need to be careful about distinguishing between cyber thefts and cyber attacks as well as between criminal and governmental cyber attacks. NYT makes clear that ransomware is a criminal enterprise.
Politico says US is monitoring Iranian ships heading toward Venezuela.
Matt Yglesias has good explanation of how the Wuhan lab culpability got caught up in the media’s search for a Vovid narrative and blinded reporters to important questions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 29
– WaPo notes that John Warner served when chairmen ruled. Now party leadership has taken control, undermining what I favor as the regular order.
-As the US tries to sort out the role of the Space Force, Jeff Shesol reminds us how Eisenhower and Kennedy fought to keep the US space program civilianized.
– WSJ notes that “hijacking” was originally coined to describe thefts of bootleg liquor.
– Quincy Institute has an interesting report on reforming think tanks.
– Just Security says junior officers are more likely to resist civilian orders.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Republican disrespect for America is a big win for Democrats
Memorial Day Monday commemorates those lost defending America in its too many wars. Yesterday the Republicans in the Senate, using the filibuster, blocked creation of a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6 attack on The Capitol. The irony should be lost on no one: while commemorating those who defend America, elected representatives are preventing investigation of the most successful physical attack on its institutions, and on them, since 1812. Why?
It’s not because they don’t want to know why January 6 happened. It’s because they know perfectly well. Supporters of then-President Trump were attempting to disrupt the constitutionally mandated tabulation in Congress of the Electoral College results. Trump himself encouraged them to do so, claiming fraud during the November election that did not occur and urging his supporters to march on The Capitol. The January 6 rioters, hundreds of whom are now charged in court, included white supremacists and others who wanted to prevent the votes of Black and Brown minorities from deciding the outcome of the election.
Creation of the bipartisan commission would have been an excellent opportunity for the Republican Party to separate itself from the racist miscreants who led the January 6 insurrection. The party leadership–which includes not only Trump himself but notably also Senate Minority Leader McConnell–passed on that opportunity, despite McConnell’s speech after the second impeachment blaming Trump for the assualt. The result is all too apparent: the GOP is now fully committed to racism and white supremacy, not only in Congress but also through the dozens of bills introduced in state legislatures to limit voting by non-whites.
The main question now is whether this racist political program will thrive or not. The six Republican senators who voted in favor of the January 6 commission will soon have to decide whether they can continue to inhabit the GOP or need to break definitively from it. That kind of formal split would doom the Republicans to serious losses in the 2022 election. Even without a formal split, racist strength among GOP loyalists, who are the main participants in primaries, guarantees that it will nominate for the House and Senate more candidates who back Trump than the six defectors. The 2022 election will be a referendum not only on Biden’s performance, which is garnering solid approval so far, but also on Trump Republicanism, which retains something like 30% support.
That’s why the voting rights issue is so important. The electorate that put Biden in office would unquestionably inflict a massive defeat on the racist version of the GOP. But mid-term elections like 2022 do not bring out the same electorate as a presidential contest. Fewer people, and fewer minorities in particular, vote. If Republicans at the state level suppress the vote by making it more difficult for people to register, cast absentee ballots, get to the polls, and cast their votes, Trumpism has a far better chance, even though he will not be on the ballot.
He won’t be in 2024 either, despite his effort to suggest that he might run again. There are indications prosecutors in New York will be charging Trump within the next few months with financial crimes, including tax fraud and election campaign violations as well as other associated felonies. Conviction could take a long time, so he will be wrapped up in court for years to come, if his health holds up. It is hard for me to imagine that Trump will continue to be a fundraising paladin once indicted, but if he is donors will be throwing good money down a rat hole. The notion of a Republican presidential nominee who is under indictment or convicted is beyond my imagination, though of course it is possible.
Speaker Pelosi will now appoint a select commission, including a quotient of non-Trumpist Republican-affiliated big shots. If it manages to report truthfully before the end of the year or early next, the impact could be close to that of a bipartisan commission. By defeating that proposition, Trump has guaranteed he will be blamed for January 6. The Republicans are defeating themselves. Democrats should not be too unhappy.
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Stevenson’s army, May 28
Microsoft reported a new Solar Winds hack. NYT links it to Russians using AID computers.
Administration confirms end of Open Skies treaty.
WaPo says Russia is cooperating with Huawei.
SecState Blinken, just back from arctic, Europe, and Middle East. now heads to Central America.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 27
– The Endless Frontier Act to counter Chinese technology has been re-branded as the Innovation and Competition Act and expanded to 1,445 pages — even before Senate amendments this week.
Several committees contributed sections. The markup in the Commerce Committee was criticized by an advocate of the original version. But to me that’s just the regular order, with the usual parochialism included.
OMB will release more detailed budget figures later today. DHS isn’t getting more, but military cyber is.
– WaPo has a good description of the interagency fight over the origins of the Covid19 virus.
It’s rare for a dispute between intelligence agencies is admitted.
– FDD calls for greater limits on Chinese technological investments in US.
– Australia is reviewing a Chinese port lease.
– My former colleague at the National War College, Dave Auerswald, has good ideas for an Arctic strategy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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