Category: Daniel Serwer

Stevenson’s army, March 4

The US government makes few Big Statements on foreign policy. Most common is the National Security Strategy Report, which previous administrations have issued just once in 4 years, usually in the second year. The language is anodyne; it’s hard to find anything to disagree with. But once issued, the documents become gospel, regularly quoted in interagency meetings as “proof” of what the President wants.
The Biden Administration is off to a fast start. Yesterday the WH issued  “Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.”  Defense News has a good summary.
SecState Blinken also made a major policy speech. WaPo notes the highlights.
NYT reports secret order on drone strikes, said to be temporary pending review, reversing Trump policy delegating authority to operational levels. [Readers here may know that I have long favored the Hughes-Ryan model of presidential decision and congressional notification of drone strikes and offensive cyber operations.]
In other news, Germany is conducting FONOP in South China Sea.
FP says Biden is giving Turkey a “silent treatment.”

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, March 3

– The Hill  says FBI Director Wray hinted at forthcoming sanctions for the Solar Winds hack, saying they would be joint, public-private, and sequenced.
-The administration and EU announced sanctions on Russia in the Navalny case.
-David Ignatius is unhappy with the Khashoggi sanctions. The administration’s fallback position is planned sanctions against people who punish journalists or dissidents.
– David Von Drehle says Biden should accept defeat in Afghanistan and pull out.
– Dan Drezner says economic statecraft is changing.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Competence and reality will win over ineptitude and lies

Today’s news is full of contrasts. The Administration has managed to ensure sufficient vaccines for the entire American population will arrive a couple of months earlier than previously programmed. The Texas Governor is lifting all COVID-19 restrictions, without any scientific basis and in the midst of a modest rise in cases in his state. Neera Tanden is withdrawing her nomination because she offended some Republican senators, who weren’t nearly as offended by Donald Trump’s grossly inappropriate tweets that got him banned from Twitter. The FBI director testified that the January 6 insurrection at The Capitol was domestic terrorism committed by Trump supporters and rightwing extremists, several hundred of whom have now been charged, while some Republicans are continuing to spout the lie that it was the work of leftists associated with the non-existent organization Antifa and maybe Black Lives Matter.

In short, we are living in an America where there are people in good touch with reality who are able to get difficult things done and others who prefer their own fantasies. Damn the consequences, even if that means shutting down the country’s second largest state for a week because it didn’t require electric utilities to prepare for the cold or connect the state’s grid to the rest of the country. Republicans in a way are proving their point: government really can be a menace, but mainly if it is incompetent, capricious, and ignorant. They are accusing and convicting themselves, not President Biden and his still new Administration.

The country is responding well to Biden, whose calm and restrained demeanor and popular proposals for reviving the economy are gaining approval ratings Trump never even came close to. Trump is still thundering, but like a storm that has passed. His speech at CPAC got little reverberation. He will nevertheless be able to keep control of most of the Republican party, as he is amassing a lot of money that can ensure primaries against those who want to turn the party back to its true, and desirable, conservative vocation. Trump will ensure that some of the worst candidates ever nominated win Republican primaries, people who make the QAnon fantasist and racist Marjorie Taylor Greene look reasonable. That’s fine by me: they’ll win some elections in safe Republican districts, but wherever there is serious political competition they will go down to defeat as true conservatives and independents flock to more reasonable Democratic candidates.

The party in the White House usually suffers losses in the mid-term elections. 2022 will therefore be a test of my proposition: Biden stands a good chance of doing better than usual and maintaining control of both the House and Senate, which both have narrow Democratic majorities. That would be the kind of electoral defeat for Trumpism that is needed to end Republican infatuation with racism and flirtation with violent extremism. It will be a fine November when competence and reality again win over ineptitude and lies.

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Stevenson’s army, March 2

Although the new USTR has not yet been confirmed, the administration released a trade agenda, stressing more challenges to China.
WSJ says allies aren’t all aligned with US on China.
Brazilian prof says Latin American governments are caught between US & Chinese tech war.
Lawfare previews CFR report on preventing war over Taiwan.
Politico discusses Democratic challengers to Biden foreign policy.
Just so you know: AP notes that Democrats dislike GOP use of “Democrat” as an adjective. [In my case, it’s fingernails-on-a-blackboard cringeworthy.]

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, March 1

NYT discusses Biden’s balancing act over Saudi Arabia.
China may have been responsible for Indian outages.
Iran says no, sorta, to nuclear talks.
New Yorker says email is making us miserable.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Restore humanitarian access in Ethiopia!

Michael Thomas Knaak, a first-year Conflict Management master’s student at Johns Hopkins/SAIS, writes:

CSIS February 22 convened a discussion of restoring humanitarian access in Ethiopia’s Tigray province, the scene of recent fighting between local forces and the Federal government. Panelists included:

Judd Devermont, Director of the CSIS Africa Program

Daniel Bekele – Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, Chief Commissioner

Catherine Wiesner – Head of External Engagement at the UNHCR Regional Bureau for East Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes

Jan Egeland – Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council

Jacob Kurtzer – Director of the Humanitarian Agenda at CSIS, who moderated

Key Points

  • The humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia is substantial, chaotic, and unlikely to improve without increased access for humanitarian personnel.
  • There is a general dearth of detailed information on the situation in Tigray, as access to humanitarian personnel and journalists is severely restricted.
  • Such access is currently being denied due to a lack of political will in the Ethiopian government and in international state-level or higher actors.
  • Significant civil-military and Federal-regional governance coordination problems are further hindering access by humanitarian assistance personnel.     

Judd Devermont

The humanitarian crises is one of many problems afflicting Ethiopia, but is the most acute flashpoint at this time. Other sources of conflict include the significant governance reforms ongoing within the Federal government, the government’s apparent mistreatment of dissidents, the contentious redrawing of political borders, and the formation and growth of unregulated militias. The continuation of the humanitarian crises complicates the overall political landscape within Tigray and across states.

In addressing the crises, the main difficulty is political will, rather than technical issues or capacity. Rectifying the limited accessibility to the region by humanitarian aid workers is critical. One idea towards this end might be appointment of a US special envoy. The envoy would need to have a close relationship with the State Department and have access to real power and resources, enabling her or him to own the process and act as a main driver for US action in the region.

Daniel Bekele

There are three key points that need immediate attention. First, local governance and administration must be reestablished to secure the restoration of critical services within the region. Second, restrictions on media access must be removed to allow for a free flow of valuable information reported in a timely manner. Third, the bureaucratic and political hurdles delaying humanitarian assistance must be overcome.

On this third point there is at least engagement between the Ethiopian government and aid organizations on the need for civilian protection and the applicability of international humanitarian law. However, they disagree on implementation of civilian-military coordination. The government lacks the will to permit regional access to assistance personnel.

Increased United Nations access and involvement through a special rapporteur has been floated as an idea for addressing the crisis. While such a step might be viewed positively, it would be important for the international community to recognize that the international process should complement rather than displace existing national processes, institutions, and efforts. A “fly-in and fly-out” type effort could fail to be coherent with the domestic Ethiopian led response.

Catherine Wiesner

Scattered reports and satellite imagery confirm that two refugee camps were assaulted by armed militants, and many thousands of refugees and IDPs are now unaccounted for. Migration from the destroyed camps to new ones has strained capacity in safe spaces. Other priority needs are unaccompanied children, restoration of basic services, and food aid.

Civil-military coordination is lacking, and the threat of violence against aid workers limits their efforts. Sudan and Djibouti have helped ease the crisis by keeping their borders open to refugees, though particularly in Sudan the border area is remote and suffers from poor infrastructure, complicating the process of moving aid staff and materiel.

Early financial appeals to address the crisis were 70% funded, but the original plan was limited in size and scope. The revised plan addresses the whole of Ethiopia in 2021 rather than just the Tigray region, and is 50% funded ($150 million), which is enough to continue operations through June. But aid efforts will have limited effectiveness without access to the areas worst hit by the crisis.

Jan Egeland

Impeding the humanitarian response is surprising coming from Ethiopia, which has a long history of generosity towards refugees. With the sudden restriction of access, agencies lost contact with numerous staff members. The trickle of information coming out of the region describes massacres and populations fleeing for their lives. Additional information remains scarce, but firsthand accounts remain horrific.

More international pressure is required to convince the Federal government to allow humanitarian workers access to the restricted areas. There are hundreds of volunteer workers prepared, with significant quantities of resources warehoused and ready for deployment. It would be helpful if the UN, US, or the African Union could secure the needed access to get aid where it is needed most, including to opposition-held areas. Federal and regional governance coordination needs improvement, as aid organizations find permission to intervene from Federal authorities can be blocked by local authorities, and vice versa.

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