Category: Daniel Serwer
Restore humanitarian access in Ethiopia!
Michael Thomas Knaak, a first-year Conflict Management master’s student at Johns Hopkins/SAIS, writes:
CSIS February 22 convened a discussion of restoring humanitarian access in Ethiopia’s Tigray province, the scene of recent fighting between local forces and the Federal government. Panelists included:
Judd Devermont, Director of the CSIS Africa Program
Daniel Bekele – Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, Chief Commissioner
Catherine Wiesner – Head of External Engagement at the UNHCR Regional Bureau for East Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes
Jan Egeland – Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council
Jacob Kurtzer – Director of the Humanitarian Agenda at CSIS, who moderated
Key Points
- The humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia is substantial, chaotic, and unlikely to improve without increased access for humanitarian personnel.
- There is a general dearth of detailed information on the situation in Tigray, as access to humanitarian personnel and journalists is severely restricted.
- Such access is currently being denied due to a lack of political will in the Ethiopian government and in international state-level or higher actors.
- Significant civil-military and Federal-regional governance coordination problems are further hindering access by humanitarian assistance personnel.
Judd Devermont
The humanitarian crises is one of many problems afflicting Ethiopia, but is the most acute flashpoint at this time. Other sources of conflict include the significant governance reforms ongoing within the Federal government, the government’s apparent mistreatment of dissidents, the contentious redrawing of political borders, and the formation and growth of unregulated militias. The continuation of the humanitarian crises complicates the overall political landscape within Tigray and across states.
In addressing the crises, the main difficulty is political will, rather than technical issues or capacity. Rectifying the limited accessibility to the region by humanitarian aid workers is critical. One idea towards this end might be appointment of a US special envoy. The envoy would need to have a close relationship with the State Department and have access to real power and resources, enabling her or him to own the process and act as a main driver for US action in the region.
Daniel Bekele
There are three key points that need immediate attention. First, local governance and administration must be reestablished to secure the restoration of critical services within the region. Second, restrictions on media access must be removed to allow for a free flow of valuable information reported in a timely manner. Third, the bureaucratic and political hurdles delaying humanitarian assistance must be overcome.
On this third point there is at least engagement between the Ethiopian government and aid organizations on the need for civilian protection and the applicability of international humanitarian law. However, they disagree on implementation of civilian-military coordination. The government lacks the will to permit regional access to assistance personnel.
Increased United Nations access and involvement through a special rapporteur has been floated as an idea for addressing the crisis. While such a step might be viewed positively, it would be important for the international community to recognize that the international process should complement rather than displace existing national processes, institutions, and efforts. A “fly-in and fly-out” type effort could fail to be coherent with the domestic Ethiopian led response.
Catherine Wiesner
Scattered reports and satellite imagery confirm that two refugee camps were assaulted by armed militants, and many thousands of refugees and IDPs are now unaccounted for. Migration from the destroyed camps to new ones has strained capacity in safe spaces. Other priority needs are unaccompanied children, restoration of basic services, and food aid.
Civil-military coordination is lacking, and the threat of violence against aid workers limits their efforts. Sudan and Djibouti have helped ease the crisis by keeping their borders open to refugees, though particularly in Sudan the border area is remote and suffers from poor infrastructure, complicating the process of moving aid staff and materiel.
Early financial appeals to address the crisis were 70% funded, but the original plan was limited in size and scope. The revised plan addresses the whole of Ethiopia in 2021 rather than just the Tigray region, and is 50% funded ($150 million), which is enough to continue operations through June. But aid efforts will have limited effectiveness without access to the areas worst hit by the crisis.
Jan Egeland
Impeding the humanitarian response is surprising coming from Ethiopia, which has a long history of generosity towards refugees. With the sudden restriction of access, agencies lost contact with numerous staff members. The trickle of information coming out of the region describes massacres and populations fleeing for their lives. Additional information remains scarce, but firsthand accounts remain horrific.
More international pressure is required to convince the Federal government to allow humanitarian workers access to the restricted areas. There are hundreds of volunteer workers prepared, with significant quantities of resources warehoused and ready for deployment. It would be helpful if the UN, US, or the African Union could secure the needed access to get aid where it is needed most, including to opposition-held areas. Federal and regional governance coordination needs improvement, as aid organizations find permission to intervene from Federal authorities can be blocked by local authorities, and vice versa.
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New Postdoc Opportunities for 2021-2022 at JHU SAIS
Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellowships
The Paul H. Nitze School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) is pleased to announce two postdoctoral opportunities for outstanding scholars to conduct research under the auspices of its Foreign Policy Institute. During the academic year 2021-2022 two post-doctoral fellowships will be awarded for a twelve-month period from September 1, 2021 to August 31, 2022.
A division of Johns Hopkins University, SAIS is a global institution that provides interdisciplinary professional education to prepare a diverse student body for internationally related positions of responsibility; to foster research, scholarship and cross-cultural exchange; and to contribute knowledge, expertise, and leadership to the global community.
The SAIS Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) unites the worlds of scholarship and policy in the search for realistic answers to international issues facing the United States and the world. To this end, it organizes research initiatives and study groups, and hosts leaders from around the world as resident or non-resident fellows in fields including international policy, business, journalism, and academia.
To recognize Dr. Brzezinski’s legacy, Johns Hopkins SAIS and its Foreign Policy Institute have established the Brzezinski Initiative, a unique set of academic programs that build on the school’s strengths as a leading center for training graduate students in international policy and relevant academic research. This recognition comprises both immediate programming and longer-term plans, which together will equip a new generation of policy experts capable of the authoritative analysis, strategic vision, and active diplomacy that were hallmarks of Dr. Brzezinski’s role as a scholar, policy advisor, and statesman.
The inaugural Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellowships enables two exceptionally promising scholars working in the field of American foreign policy or foreign and international security policy to spend a year affiliated with the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute. Fellows are expected to contribute to the intellectual life of FPI and SAIS more broadly.
The Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellowship in American Foreign Policy
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski taught American Foreign Policy at SAIS from 1989 to 1998. Thanks to the generosity of SAIS alumni, this postdoctoral fellowship recognizes his critical contribution to intellectually significant policy relevant research in the area of American Foreign Policy.
Selected post-doctoral fellows should be within seven years of having completed their doctorate at the time they submit their application and will be expected to be at the stage when they are preparing their dissertation for publication as a book.
The Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellow in American Foreign Policy will receive an annual stipend of $62,000 and $4,000 in research funding during the appointment (budget submissions required to account for funds). Fellowship recipients are eligible for Johns Hopkins University health benefits.
The Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellowship in Foreign and Security Policy honors the legacy of Dr. Brzezinski’s farsighted analysis of trends shaping the international policy environment.
Selected post-doctoral fellows should be within seven years of having completed their doctorate at the time they submit their application and will be expected to be at the stage when they are preparing their dissertation for publication as a book.
The Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellow in American Foreign Policy will receive an annual stipend of $62,000 and $4,000 in research funding during the appointment (budget submissions required to account for funds). Fellowship recipients are eligible for Johns Hopkins University health benefits.
Please contact Carla Freeman , cfreeman5@jhu.edu or Virginia Rosell, vrosell1@jhu.edu if you have any questions.
Qualifications
To qualify for consideration, candidates must have completed all requirements of their doctoral degree no earlier than March 15, 2014 and no later than March 12, 2021. If a successful applicant has not earned a Ph.D. at the time of application, the applicant’s advisers must submit a formal letter confirming that the applicant has completed all the requirements for the Ph.D. by May 21, 2021.
Fellows must be prepared to devote themselves full-time to their research during the period of their fellowship and therefore must agree they will not hold other employment during their fellowship.
Application Instructions
- The deadline to submit applications is 11:59p.m. (EST) Monday, March 15, 2021.
- Applications must be submitted via Interfolio: https://apply.interfolio.com/83965.
- Candidates may not apply for both fellowships.
- Required application documents: A one-page cover letter describing your interest in the selected fellowship, your background, a brief description of your research project, and what you will accomplish during the period of your postdoctoral fellowship; a current CV; two examples of your scholarly writing; graduate-level transcripts (unofficial are acceptable); two letters of reference; other relevant documents, such as evidence of English proficiency.
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Stevenson’s army, February 27
– Earmarks are returning. More background from CRS.
– Administration releases ODNI report on Khashoggi killing but stops short of punishing MBS.
– WSJ reports new US rules to fight China technology threat.
– Pentagon releases materials for countering extremism in the ranks.
– VP Harris more active in foreign policy.
– New push on war power rules.
– Lawfare on how new cyber director is supposed to work.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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One more problem in Lebanon, but now may not be the time to solve it
Samin Mirfakhrai, a first-year Conflict Management student at SAIS, writes:
The Carnegie Middle East Center February 19 held a discussion of inequality in Lebanon. Panelists were:
- Lydia Assouad, El-Erian Fellow, Carnegie Middle East Center; PhD Candidate, Paris School of Economics
- Haneen Sayed, Human Development Specialist, World Bank Group
- Toufic Gaspard, Former Senior Economic Advisor to the Lebanese Minister of Finance; Advisor, IMF
- Gregg Carlstrom as moderator, Middle East Correspondent, The Economist
Key Points
Income and wealth inequality have been a cornerstone of the Lebanese economy for decades; the existing disparity has grown more extreme since 2005. The political elite have long upheld a system rooted in clientelist institutions and policies. The political culture has exacerbated economic inequalities to benefit the ruling elite and forego creating opportunities in upward mobility for the middle and lower classes.
The state of the political economy is dire. Without the proper reforms, financial collapse is imminent. Within the scope of fiscal policy, implementing a general and progressive income tax, increasing top marginal tax rates, and instituting an annual wealth tax are recommended to increase the national revenue.
Economic reform must be coupled with political form. Long-term programs that increase human development, continue economic subsidies, and offer cash assistance can lower inequality rates, yet the financing needed for such measures is unavailable. Panelists agree that real change cannot be achieved without political reform.
Figures
The richest 10 percent of the population hold approximately 70 percent of total wealth in the country.
Extreme poverty in Lebanon has nearly doubled since 2012.
The lower poverty line, classified as anyone who cannot provide their daily caloric needs, is at 22 percent.
The Human Capital Index in 2018 was 0.52, meaning a child born in Lebanon can expect to be 52 percent as productive as he/she could be upon reaching the age of 18.
Summary
This event was organized around Lydia Assouad’s research on economic equality in Lebanon. Her recent paper for the Carnegie Middle East Center entitled “Lebanon’s Political Economy: From Predatory to Self-Devouring” focuses on assessing income and wealth inequality at the apex of several converging crises. Income inequality has been a ubiquitous aspect of Lebanon’s socioeconomic sphere since the state was formally established in 1943. While it isrecognized that inequality has persisted since the decades before Lebanon’s civil war erupted in 1975, data is lacking.
Inequality has grown more severe as the country faces various crises that have combined to beget a serious humanitarian crisis. In 2019, a massive protest movement responded to decades of policies that have sustained and exacerbated levels of economic inequality that are considered some of the highest in the world. Since then, a number of events, including a protracted banking crisis, coronavirus, and the Beirut port explosion, have compounded on a dire situation.
Assouad’s research first tackled the dearth of data on economic inequality in Lebanon. There is little data available on the phenomena prior to 2005, the year Syrian forces left Lebanon after nearly three decades of occupation. The data since then is incomplete. Her novel methods of collecting micro-fiscal data allowed Assouad to delve into the nature of inequality in the country and deliver a sober message that economic amelioration must be coupled with political reform. The political elite are often the country’s wealthiest individuals, who continue to take part in kleptocratic and corrupt practices lacking in political accountability and integrity.
Assouad’s recommendations emphasize the need for tax reform in order to generate government revenue. Specifically, she advocates a progressive income tax that would combine all sources of income as one, instead of considering them separately. Additionally, an exceptional wealth tax of 10% on billionaires would collect approximately 2-3% of the national income.
Panelist Gaspard criticized Assouad’s focus on tax reform, suggesting that a progressive tax would not be feasible for a developing economy like Lebanon’s because fiscal management and administrative systems are underdeveloped. He further expanded that while fiscal policy has caused the collapse of the exchange rate, it is monetary policy that brought the collapse of the banking system. Attendees also questioned the ability to tax a wider base when public trust in institutions is so low.
All panelists agreed that economic reform would need to be coupled with massive political change in order to reverse Lebanon’s collapse, but major reforms are difficult during stability, let alone during the country’s current crisis. Such changes require strong leadership, political consensus, public engagement, and tough measures—a combination not to be found in Lebanon today.
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Stevenson’s army, February 26
– Biden administration strikes Iranian-backed militias in Syria.
– Biden talks to Saudi king
– Axios says administration in no rush to change Western Sahara policy..
– Pew reports public opinion on Biden foreign policy challenges.
– David Ignatius comments on Egypt policy.
– Josh Rogin urges action on North Korea policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No tightrope between reality and conspiracy, only a chasm
NPR this morning described Republicans as walking a tightrope between the reality of Trump’s election loss and dangerous conspiracy theories about a stolen election. This weekend’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is anchored on the conspiracy side. A relatively few national Republican leaders like Mitch McConnell and Meghan McCain have tried to anchor themselves in the hard reality of an election loss. They won’t be at CPAC.
There is not “tightrope” between these two perspectives, only a yawning chasm. The Republican Party is split between them. Most of its committed supporters, the “base,” are on the conspiracy theory side. No more than 30% or so of regular Republican voters think the election wasn’t stolen and that Donald Trump incited the riot at The Capitol January 6.
This is good. If it persists, it will ensure the nomination of nut-jobs like Marjorie Taylor-Green, the Georgia QAnon star, in 2022, for both the House and Senate. Senators like Cruz and Hawley are not much better. Their votes against accepting the Electoral College votes from key states, despite the many court decisions upholding the election results, will haunt them as verdicts are delivered against the rioters over the next two years.
An incumbent president normally suffers a setback in the midterms, but if Biden gets his $1.9 trillion Covid relief package the odds are good for a decent economic recovery by November 2022. The risk will be on the inflation side, which the Federal Reserve knows how to counter. Trump never really took full credit for the vaccines. Even he found it difficult to do so while claiming the pandemic was a hoax. As it happens, they are arriving for most Americans on Biden’s watch, so he will garner the political benefits.
Trump will try to make a come back with his speech Sunday at CPAC. His audience will cheer and he will try to “primary” any Republican candidates who don’t toe his line about the election “steal.” But the country has moved on. Biden has come in for precious little criticism and projects an image of solid thoughtfulness. Even the non-Trumpian Republicans are not signing up to the Covid relief bill, but it is what most of the country wants, including the gradual increase of the minimum wage to $15/hour.
What Trump still has going for him is what he always represented: the anxiety of white people, especially less educated males, about America’s demographic and social changes. People who still believe the election was stolen blame it exclusively on cities with large Black and LatinX populations. Trump and his followers find it hard to accept that those votes count as much as their own. The only solution for them is to block Blacks and LatinX from voting, which is precisely what they are trying to do in many states with legislation aimed to suppress voting.
That is a looming battle for Biden. The Administration and Democrats in Congress need to ensure that the ways in which voting was eased in 2020 because of the epidemic are preserved for 2022. A new voting rights act should include statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Once it is clear to Republicans that they can’t regain power without appealing across racial and ethnic lines, those who stand on the wrong side of the chasm will fade and those Republicans who believe in democracy, no matter the race or national origins of those voting, will prevail. That would be a happy day.
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