Category: Daniel Serwer
Stevenson’s army, January 18, late edition
I’ve now found data reinforcing my longstanding belief that Newt Gingrich, more than any other person, is responsible for the rise of toxic partisanship. [There are other factors, of course, but Gingrich was at the leading edge.]
Princeton Prof Julian Zelizer ably described how Gingrich used the theme of corruption to destroy public trust in Congress and vault the GOP into control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. The Georgia congressman openly said, “We have to destroy the House in order to save it.” He certainly achieved the destruction, but we have never seen the salvation.
Last week Kevin Drum posted a chart based on Pew surveys showing the decline in trust of government among Republicans and Democrats. [I can’t seem to be able to copy and paste the chart, so please look.] It shows a sharp drop in the early 1990s, in both parties, offset by a post-9/11 resurgence of trust, followed by the declines linked to the forever wars and the Democratic distrust of Bush and then GOP distrust of Obama.
It didn’t have to be this way. Politics cold have been about policy rather than personality. But Gingrich and his acolytes weaponized peccadilloes [the House bank, postage allowances] and found that it worked politically. How ironic that Donald Trump convinced his supporters that he had “drained the swamp” when he appointed lobbyists in charge of agencies they had lobbied for private clients.
Gingrich is also responsible for hyperpartisanship in another way: many of his Young Turks later became Senators, bringing their House majoritarianism and take-no-prisoners style into the upper chamber.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 18
AP says FBI is vetting National Guard troops in DC to prevent insider threat.
Several cabinet nominees have Senate hearings Tuesday, Hill has as story on the Austin hearing before SASC.
Politico has a long story on the inside fights that undermined Operation Warp Speed.
Maggie Haberman & colleague analyze the role of words in the Trump presidency.
CRS has new report with historical data on congressional careers.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Build a world in which Trump will not thrive
Donald Trump could hardly have done a worse job as president. He inherited a growing economy, a healthy population, and a country that had begun to heal race relations under a two-term black president. He is leaving office with the economy going into the second dip of a deep recession, after having failed to respond effectively to Covid-19. He has praised violent white supremacists, alienated all but small contingents of minorities, and inspired a seditious insurrection targeting The Capitol and the constitutionally mandated counting of electoral votes. He was only impeached twice. He gave cause for many more indictments.
Trump still has substantial support in the Republican Party, a significant portion of which supported his effort to overturn election results and even the January 6 rioting. Only 10 Republicans joined the Democrats in voting for his second impeachment. If we are to believe one of the Republicans, there was serious discussion among them of the validity of state legislatures availing themselves of the opportunity to change the popular vote outcomes and choose a state’s electors, regardless of claims of fraud. That possibility is left open by current laws and the constitution, but it is hard to imagine a more anti-democratic notion.
The Republican Party now finds itself weakened, split, and tied to a defeated president who won’t even extend the standard courtesies of a concession speech and attendance at his successor’s inauguration. Not that he would be welcomed, as President-elect Biden has made clear. Even the most moderate, mild-mannered, and bipartisan leaning politicians has his limits. Trump will instead no doubt try to steal the limelight with some stunt between now and noon on January 20. Pardons for his family, friends, rioters, himself? An attack on Iran? An appearance at a demonstration the day of Biden’s inauguration? Who knows: in this he is clever and malicious. He’ll find something.
Suspension of his Twitter account will handicap Trump a bit. I confess to mixed feelings about that. He unquestionably used it to incite violence, so Twitter should long ago have blocked him. The history of the last four years might have been far more salubrious had it done so. But limits on free speech have a way of expanding to people who are far less culpable. Belarusian President Lukashenko no doubt feels his democracy-advocating opponents should have their social media access cut off. How about Iran’s Supreme Leader, its President, and its Foreign Minister? I don’t like their regime and think they are guilty of massive human rights abuses, but are we going to cut off all foreign leaders who commit them?
Those issues are for another day. Today we can bask in the notion that Trump will soon be out of office, his Congressional supporters are in disarray, companies are cutting off contributions to those who voted against certifying the electoral results, and Trump’s base is sorely disappointed if not yet disillusioned. We can also relish the rise to power of a calm, empathetic, capable President Biden, who is busy appointing a diverse administration of serious people and developing plans for meeting the health and economic crises that besiege us.
Nothing is guaranteed. Trump will retreat and regroup, along with the bankrupt National Rifle Association, his hypocritical evangelical supporters, his sons and daughter-in-law, the soon to be disbarred Rudy Giuliani, and those Republicans more interested in regaining power than in standing for conservatives principles, which were largely anathema to Trump.
But on Martin Luther King Day, we can be thankful for all those–black, white, male and female, and everything in between–who voted for the kind of America that King wanted: “a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.” If we build that kind of world, the likes of Trump will not thrive.
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Stevenson’s army, January 16
DOJ backtracks on “capture and assassinate” charge.
Scientists doubt hypersonic weapons will work as hoped.
Officials waited months to approve vaccine distribution plan.
Fred Kaplan calls Pompeo worst SecState ever. I think Tillerson is also in the running.
I have a piece in The Hill calling for Biden to name a lot of temporary officials.
Jonathan Swan details Haspel threat to quit over political appointee.
Jamelle Bouie chronicles the 2-decade campaign against “voter fraud.”
Warning ignored: Capitol Police warned 3 days before attack. Attackers included trained military.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 14, late edition
Instead of waiting until tomorrow morning, I wanted to share these additional items today.
Pew has two new reports on how people get their news and the increased use of social media.
Heritage analyst has some good points about how to think about defense spending.
DOD has a new report on where the defense money goes.
TPM says DHS intelligence failed before Jan. 6.
Just Security notes parallels to Benghazi attack. [And remember, Congress held almost as many hearings into Benghazi as into the 9/11 attacks.]
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Stevenson’s army, January 14
Loyalty test? Army loyalty test.
UCMJ can be used against rioters.
Algorithms have consequences.
CNN explains why the JCS spoke out.
Note the leadership gaps.
Administration touts new Taiwan policy — and declassifies its major policy paper.
WSJ says Iran is working on nuclear weapons materials.
CNAS has new report on countering China’s technology policy.
Thinking like a politician: Punchbowl News suggests motives of the ten GOP who voted for impeachment.
Ten Republicans voted for Trump’s impeachment. Here’s how to think of them:
Rep. John Katko of New York is an upstate Republican who always has a tough general election race. His defection is notable because he’s the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee — a chair if Republicans win the House back — so a break like this with the president is something.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a harsh Trump critic for quite awhile. So, no surprise here, and no internal dynamics to note. He’s picked a lane — institutional hawk with an independent, anti-Trump streak — and he’s sticking to it.
Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, of course, is the most notable yes vote. Her decision to support impeachment likely gave political cover to the rest of the nine who joined her. Cheney’s internal image has been cemented: If you’re aligned with Trump, she’s a turncoat. If you’re part of the party that wants to move on from the 45th president, she did well by you. More about her in a minute.
Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan is a veteran Republican who doesn’t get hurt by standing up for what he believes in. Upton has been in the House for 35 years — he probably has 100 percent name ID at home. His district went narrowly for Trump in 2020 — 51-47 — and Upton won by nearly 16 points.
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington State also has a district that voted narrowly for Trump. She typically wins her seat handily. She has no leadership position at risk by taking this vote.
Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington State was on everyone’s watch list. Newhouse said before the vote he was undecided and then dropped a statement right as he got to the floor saying he’d vote to oust Trump. Newhouse’s district is solidly for Trump, so we’ll see how this plays out for him politically.
Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan continues a trend of really interesting Republicans from the Grand Rapids area — Meijer’s predecessor was Justin Amash. This district seems to reward people who don’t fall in line with the party. Also, Meijer’s family owns the massive Meijer supermarket chain in the Midwest, so he has the personal resources and name ID to withstand attacks.
Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina was a shocker that the Hill press corps and GOP leadership didn’t see coming. His district is conservative — Trump won by 20 points — and many people thought his yes vote was a mistake. It wasn’t. He said this in a statement Wednesday evening:
It has been a week since so many were injured, the United States Capitol was ransacked, and six people were killed, including two police officers. Yet, the President has not addressed the nation to ask for calm. He has not visited the injured and grieving. He has not offered condolences. Yesterday in a press briefing at the border, he said his comments were ‘perfectly appropriate.’ I have backed this President through thick and thin for four years. I campaigned for him and voted for him twice. But, this utter failure is inexcusable.
Rep. Anthony Gonzales of Ohio was a bit of a surprise to some onlookers. The former NFL wide receiver and Ohio State grad cuts his own image in the House.
Rep. David Valadao of California is perpetually one of the most endangered lawmakers in Congress. The Central Valley Republican was first elected in 2012, lost in 2018 and just won the House seat back. His district voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in November, so politically, this is a good move.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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