Category: Daniel Serwer
The sad fact is we are still going down hill
Intense focus this weekend is on resignation, the 25th Amendment, and impeachment as means of removing President Trump from office. The first is unlikely, the second just doesn’t seem to be happening, and the third will happen in the House but with dim prospects of conviction in the Senate. Accountability is going to be difficult.
The President is not the only miscreant in an official position. Here are some other thoughts about what to do.
Brother Jeremy reminds:
There’s always Section 3 of the 14th Amendment:
“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”
All we’d need for the next Presidential election cycle is an RNC, and if necessary a Supreme Court, that will invoke it. Certainly, an impeachment and conviction by the Senate would make this stronger, though by itself 14-3 could suffice – of course, provided the Republican Party steps to the plate. Which I guess it would.
I’m less sure than he is about the RNC, which Friday reconfirmed Trump’s control. But it is a suggestion I haven’t seen elsewhere that could be applied not only to the President but also to others.
That is important, especially for Senators Cruz and Hawley. Here is Senator Hawley greeting the demonstrators before the sacking:
He and Cruz not only encouraged the demonstrators but also questioning of the election results. They have continued even after the sacking of the Capitol to lie about the election outcome. Five other Republican senators joined them in voting to overturn Biden’s election, as did 147 Republican members of the House. It would require two-thirds of the Senate or House to expel them, so that is not going to happen.
For the lawyers among the other miscreants, there is disbarment. Here‘s a petition already signed by 1300 lawyers and law students. Essentially they are saying that Senators Cruz and Hawley are guilty of “repeating dangerous and unsubstantiated statements regarding the election and abetting the lawless behavior of President Trump.” This behavior helped to inspire insurrection against the democratic institutions lawyers are sworn to protect. I’m not sure why Rudy Giuliani is omitted from this petition, but he is certainly as guilty of the allegations as Cruz and Hawley.
As for the small fry who actually participated in the putsch, the list of those being charged in Federal and District courts is getting longer. I’ll hope it reaches at least into the hundreds, which is what the acting US attorney for the District of Columbia is projecting. The coddling of white rioters was apparent to all on January 6. The prosecutors and courts are going to have to exert themselves more than usual to erase the impression that if you are white you can do as you please in a public building.
If Trump is not quickly deprived of his executive powers, he will soon be pardoning anyone he sees as a supporter, including the rioters. It would be a final disgrace among so many, but I have my doubts that he will try to pardon himself. Doing so would invite an indictment to test to the validity of such a pardon. The last thing this president needs is one more court case after leaving office.
He is more likely to resign in the hour before Joe Biden’s inauguration, to give Vice President Pence just enough time to sign the pardon. Apart from resisting Trump’s instruction to overturn the election results–a move that would not have withstood the inevitable challenge in the Congress–Pence has shown no sign of resisting Trump. I don’t put him below doing the pardon, if only to ensure his own standing with Trump’s supporters.
The sad fact is we are still going down hill. The insurrectionists and their encouragers need far more punishment than they have so far suffered. Only a sound defeat in court, at the polls, and in public opinion will prevent their resurgence.
Here, if you haven’t had enough, are our patriots trying to interfere with the press during their attempt to stop the counting of Electoral College votes:
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Stevenson’s army, January 9
I was dubious of the legality of an impeachment trial after Trump leaves office, but it turns out there is a precedent — an 1876 trial of the just-resigned Secretary of War.
A GOP congressman argued for it — against former Pres. Obama.
NBC’s Pete Williams summarizes the different schools of thought.
If it happens, Leader McConnell says the trial would begin an hour after Biden’s inauguration.
Meanwhile, FBI says no evidence of antifa at the Capitol attack.
Politico analyzes Capitol Police failures.
DNI IG says officials politicized intelligence about foreign election interference.
Biden announces NSC staff.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 8
– They organized in plain sight.
– It wasn’t just “protesters.” Some were out for blood.
– They stormed the Capitol.
– Neither the National Guard nor the Capitol Police wanted to use the Guard, which complicated the effort to get reinforcements.
– Cong. Clyburn is unhappy that cabinet officers are resigning instead of voting to remove Trump under the 25th amendment.
– Meanwhile, Ben Wittes explains why a self pardon by Trump is likely to be rejected.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Trump won’t resign, so make him a pariah
America’s immediate problem is to prevent Donald Trump from doing more damage, both domestically and internationally. The longer-term challenge is to make sure he can never hold office again and to disgrace him even among his erstwhile supporters.
They are already having doubts, as Trump encouraged them to attack the Capitol and even promised to walk there with them but has now disavowed the mob he incited. Those are not the kind of doubts likely to have a positive impact on American politics. The diehards could become more violent in their disillusion rather than less. The white supremacist swamp from which they emerged is the greatest terrorist threat to America today.
The two constitutional means of preventing Trump from doing evil are both time-consuming and require bipartisan approval.
The 25th Amendment requires a majority of the cabinet to agree and both houses of Congress to vote by 2/3 majority. During the process however the President’s powers are delegated to the Vice President, which means Trump in the near term would be prevented from doing anything harmful. Use of the 25th Amendment would also label Trump permanently as unqualified.
Impeachment can be done quickly in the House, but the Senate is still majority Republican (the two new Georgia Senators likely won’t be seated until after Inauguration Day, due to election law requirements). Some think Trump could be impeached before then but tried in the Senate thereafter. Conviction would make him unable to run again in 2024, as he has indicated he wants to do.
House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are threatening impeachment if Vice President Pence does not proceed with the 25th Amendment. That is a reasonable tactic under the circumstances. The Trump who yesterday read what his handlers wanted disowning the riot and pledging a peaceful transition sounded tamer. But Trump is also fabulously erratic and could easily burst the constraints and do something tragic, either domestically or internationally.
The right thing for Trump to do is resign. He is uninterested in doing the job of the President, was at least partly responsible for the insurrectionary attack on the Capitol, and has said that he will not attend Biden’s Inauguration. That was predictable, but it is also one of the well-established responsibilities of an outgoing President. If he doesn’t want to do it, he should let Vice President Pence fulfill the role.
The ultimate solution will be in court and at the polls. It will take the better part of the next decade. The rioters need to be arrested, prosecuted, and convicted. Their enablers in the Republican party–Senators Hawley and Cruz first among them, but also the 140 or so Representatives who voted to ignore the Electoral College results–need to be defeated at the polls. Trump and his supporters should be made pariahs, so that no one ever plays his game again.
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Georgia points the way, DC, Puerto Rico, and Mississippi next
It is hard to think past yesterday’s attempted putsch at the Capitol, but I really do think the victory of two Democrats in Georgia’s Senate run-off elections is far more significant. The imbalance in the Senate in favor of the Republicans has been a major factor in the radicalization of that party and the rise of Trumpism.
Once the Georgia Democrats are seated, Mitch McConnell, the Grim Reaper, will go into opposition and Chuck Schumer will control the agenda of the upper house. That in itself is important, as it will enable a new corona virus relief bill to be passed, including $2000 relief checks. They may not be the best economic stimulus idea, but the Democrats will still want to deliver them, along with aid to states and small business. I imagine some Republicans will vote in favor in both houses.
But on many things, legislation in the Senate faces what Americans call “the filibuster.” In its current form, this is a rule that requires 60 votes (out of 100) to close debate on a proposal and proceed to vote on it. The filibuster presumably encourages moderation and bipartisanship, though I’d be glad if someone could point me to research that demonstrates that effect. There are already some exceptions to the filibuster, the rules for which are incredibly arcane: budget “reconciliation” and nominations to high office. Eliminating the filibuster entirely is something both parties have hesitated to do when they are in the majority, because they know full well they may some day be in the minority.
I wouldn’t suggest eliminating the filibuster altogether. But I do think another exception should be carved out for admitting states to the Union. It is simply undemocratic to deprive the citizens resident in the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico of representation and power equivalent to that of states that are less populous. Both have held referenda in favor of statehood, The District (which would become the (Frederick) Douglas Commonwealth, thus still DC) would get two senators and a voting representative. It already has the equivalent number (3) of electoral votes. Puerto Rico, whose citizens are already entitled to vote when they are resident in one of the 50 states, would get two senators and five representatives.
These additions to the Congress and the Electoral College would go some distance to eliminating deviations from one person one vote that prevail in the Senate and Electoral College today. The Democratic members of the Senate currently represent more than 40 million more people than the equal number of Republican members. Due to the distribution of Electoral College votes, Trump won the presidency in 2016 with almost 3 million fewer popular votes than Hillary Clinton.
Joe Biden, who spent most of his adult life in the Senate, will not be convinced easily to modify the filibuster. But he might be forced to it by Republican intransigence in the Senate. Admitting DC and Puerto Rico as states would give the Republican party strong incentives to abandon Trumpism and turn back towards a more moderate political course. That is precisely what is needed: a Yougov quick poll yesterday showed 45% of Republicans supported the storming of the Congress. Only defeat at the polls and in Congress will lower that number.
More Democratic senators are also possible without admitting new states. Mississippi, which recently erased a Confederate symbol from its state flag, is close to 38% black. If they turn out to vote, as Georgia’s black population did, Mississippi too could become a purple or even blue state. Louisiana and South Carolina also have higher black populations than Georgia. One of the big fights in the next few years will therefore be over voting rights and procedures. The epidemic enabled a lot of people to vote by mail in states that otherwise discourage their participation, including Georgia. That is the right direction.
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Stevenson’s army, January 7
Say a prayer for American democracy. It has been badly wounded.
NYT has the trail of incitements to treason.
Former APSA Congressional Fellow Paul Musgrave explains why it can be called an attempted coup.
Politico reporters describe the scary events.
The rioters justified themselves.
The Capitol Police underestimated the threat and responded incompetently. Heads will roll.
General Mattis finally speaks out
Ezra Klein has a fine first column at NYT..
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