Category: Daniel Serwer
Deal, no deal, ceasefire, peace agreement?
Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet Friday with President Trump to sign a minerals agreement the Americans have been insisting on. The Financial Times reports:
The final version of the agreement, dated February 25 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine.
The $500 billion demand has disappeared. No security guarantees are included. The US stake in the fund is unspecified.
Deal, or no deal?
It is hard to know what to think about this, as it all depends on the details and on implementation. It is certainly not common practice for countries providing support to insist on repayment. But Trump is Trump. Personally, I wouldn’t sign anything he offers, but Zelensky is in a difficult spot. I hope he knows what he is doing.
The bigger question is whether this will bring Trump around to supporting Ukraine rather than Russia. I doubt it. Moscow will offer to match any terms Zelensky signs for minerals at least in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Trump won’t resist. Two deals of this sort will solidify partition.
What now?
Trump will continue to insist on peace talks. He desperately wants credit for ending the war. He has already given President Putin most of what Moscow wants. Trump is ready to accept Russian occupation of the territory it controls inside Ukraine. He has blamed Ukraine for the war. And he no doubt wants to end the shipment of arms to what he regards as the losing side.
Ukraine can do without the arms, at least for the next year or so. President Biden shipped ample supplies. The more important question is whether the US is prepared to continue providing intelligence. That is vital to Ukraine’s targeting. Also important to Ukraine is the use of Elon Musk’s StarLink satellite network, which it uses for military communications.
Trump’s reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine makes the Europeans more important than ever. If they step up their military supplies, Ukraine has a chance to outlast Russia in the current war of attrition. If they don’t, Kyiv’s manpower shortage will become ever more visible and relevant. Ukraine needs both Europe’s arms and its economic and financial support.
What about peace?
If Trump continues to insist, a ceasefire is a real possibility. Both Ukraine and Russia need a respite, during which they will resupply and reorganize for renewed fighting. The Europeans are saying they are prepared to observe a ceasefire. But the confrontation line is 600 miles long, with forces on both sides stronger than any the Europeans will deploy. The experience of monitoring a much shorter confrontation line in southern Lebanon does not bode well.
Neither Kyiv nor Moscow seems to me prepared to compromise on their basic war aims. Russia wants to limit Ukraine’s sovereign choices, like joining NATO. Ukraine wants Russia out of all of its territory, including Crimea. There may be a mutually hurting stalemate, but there is no mutually enticing way out. A ceasefire will give both sides time to contemplate whether one exists, but they certainly haven’t defined one yet.
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The hour of Europe really has arrived
The three-year anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has come and gone, with lots of fanfare. But nothing more discordant than the US vote in the General Assembly. Washington voted with Moscow and its friends against a resolution condemning the invasion. For the Trump Administration, calling an invasion aggression was just too much.
The real estate mogul views war
Trump has upended US policy on Ukraine. He has blamed Kyiv for the Russian invasion and asked for repayment of US aid. The Americans are talking with Russia about an end to the war without Ukrainians or Europeans in the room.
But none of that is the worst. The core problem is not procedural or rhetorical. It is the solution Trump will favor. He sees the war as a fight over territory, which he will propose to divide. Russia will keep whatever it has conquered and Ukraine will get the rest. This is a real estate mogul’s view of war. He takes a similar view of Gaza. It’s about territory for him. Get rid of the people and rebuild to Israel’s specifications, which means no Palestinians.
I need hardly mention that he is treating Panama, Canada, and Greenland with the same territorial eye.
It’s about sovereignty, not territory
But Ukraine is not about territory. Nor are Panama, Canada, and Greenland. Or even Gaza. In all these places the real issue is sovereignty, not territory. The Canada proposition is an obvious bad joke. It has already caused Canadians to look more to the UK and Europe for their future security. They are correct to do so.
But Panama and Greenland have good reason to fear Trump’s intentions. Neither is strong enough on its own to resist. The 1989 American invasion of Panama is forgotten in America, but it is living memory in Panama. Greenland has no military, and Denmark has a tiny one (16,000 total). Pituffik Space Base, until recently Thule Air Base, has fewer than 1000 Americans and contractors. If the US wanted to expand it, Denmark would no doubt have tried to cooperate. The Danes would also welcome US investment in mineral exploration and exploitation in Greenland. But Trump’s insistence on buying the island, and threatening that otherwise he’ll take it by force, will generate resistance. Denmark is small, but sovereign.
Sovereignty isn’t divisible, but it is shareable
The problem with sovereignty is that it isn’t divisible. But it is shareable. The European Union is a case of shared sovereignty. Its currency, the euro, belongs to no single member state. Likewise its common market and its rules for the circulation of people, capital, and services.
The Minsk I and II agreements that Moscow and Kyiv negotiated, but never implemented, entailed shared sovereignty. Let’s leave aside who would have benefited most and who was responsible for their non-implementation. They would have required Kyiv to devolve authority. That would have given Moscow a good deal of say in the governance of Russian speakers in Donbas. But it would have left the rest of Ukraine unconstrained.
Putin wants it all
For Putin, Ukraine is not about territory. He will accept a ceasefire. But he will not respect a serious solution that leaves even part of Ukraine as a sovereign state. That would mean Kyiv can make its own choices, like joining NATO, or developing nuclear weapons. Russia wouldn’t like that.
I still have some hope that Europe will step into the gap the US is leaving. The Europeans have more at risk. They have also paid more to date:
If Europe comes up with the $700 billion rumored, that would give Ukraine the means to outlast Putin. It would also give Europe the clout to counterbalance the US. Those are two desirable outcomes, under current circumstances.
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Ukraine doesn’t like Trump’s surrender
Ukrainian President Zelensky is understandably an unhappy man. President Trump organized a meeting to discuss Ukraine behind his back. Trump also conceded most of what the Russians were seeking in advance. Besides the continued Russian occupation of 20% of Ukraine, Trump is prepared to meet other Russian demands. They include no NATO membership for Ukraine, no US forces in Ukraine, and sanctions relief for Russia. It is rumored Trump has also agreed to withdrawal of US forces from other Russian neighbors.
Why?
The US interests the Administration has cited are economic and geopolitical. That is bogus. Russia’s economy at this point is smaller than Spain’s. Alienating Europe, a wealthy market of over 500 million people (EU+UK), to curry economic favor with Russia is absurd. Its population is less than 145 million and its GDP smaller than California’s or Texas’. Russia’s giant Eurasian land mass is of little interest to the US. America has greater oil and gas reserves and produces much more of both. We bought the most important part Russian territory in 1867. It is now called Alaska.
Besides, Russia is now firmly aligned, as a vassal state, with China. Putin couldn’t get out of that relationship if he wanted to. But he doesn’t want to.
One reason for Trump’s capitulation was seated at the negotiating table. Dmitry Rybolovlev, one of Putin’s favorite billionaires, bought a house in Palm Beach from Trump in 2008 for $95 million. Trump had paid less than $42 million for it four years earlier. Even in Palm Beach, that’s wild. Dmitry must have had very good reasons making his money disappear. Trump collaborated in the laundering. If this were a mafia movie, you would know what having him sit in the negotiations yesterday means.
US interests
This is not even appeasement. It is capitulation. There is no reason for Ukraine or the US to give in at this point. Russia has been making very slow progress in attacking Ukraine at very high cost. The war has eliminated Russia as a peer military competitor to the US, if it ever was one. That alone is worth the aid we’ve given Kyiv.
Ukraine is also bleeding, but that is Zelensky’s problem, not Trump’s. Zelensky wants a decent negotiated solution, not the capitulation Trump is offering. Yesterday Turkiye President Erdogan backed Ukraine’s “indisputable” sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Fortunately, the Europeans are said to be assembling a 700 billion euro package for Ukraine. That far exceeds all US assistance to Ukraine, which totals $183 billion. It is a good thing for the US. If Trump’s supporters want to claim credit for getting the Europeans to do it, I’ll gladly applaud with one hand. But the Europeans need to move as quickly as possible after the German election this weekend. Derailing a bad settlement is vital.
Perfidy unlimited
Trump has also tried to shake down Ukraine for $500 billion in mineral deposits, or maybe more. Zelensky has made it clear that deal isn’t going anywhere. He is correct to do so. If anyone should pay for the US aid to Ukraine, it is Russia, which invaded. Asking the victim to pay is a new level of perfidy for Trump, though consistent with past behavior.
The United States should be offering the full support that Erdogan is voicing. Instead, a president who is dismantling the US government is doing the same to its alliances and interests abroad. These will be days that live in infamy.
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Part 1: Is this what you voted for?
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, writes:
Dear Fellow Americans,
It is time to wake up from your slumber and face the truth. Our nation is in peril. Trump’s selection of Hegseth as SecDef and Gabbard as DNI, as well as VP Vance’s statements in Munich in support of the Alternative für Deutschland neofacists, reflect a dramatic change of direction. The President is conceding to Putin’s expansionism and betraying basic American principles. The credibility, rules-based order, national sovereignty, and freedom that have brought prosperity for the past 80 years are at risk.
Putin’s savior
Trump has thrown President Putin a lifeline. The Russian economy and military are exhausted. Ukraine would have prevailed, but Trump blinked. He is the 21st century version of Neville Chamberlain, who surrendered the Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland to Hitler.
Likewise, Trump is yielding the national security of Ukraine and its citizens to Russia. Secretary of State Rubio will meet Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a deal. This will be done without consulting Ukraine or the European Union. It will weaken NATO, which stands on the front line with Russia. That makes the US much more vulnerable.
The broader implications
Trump is signaling both Putin and President Xi. They now understand that they can do as they want, even if it means giving up Europe and Taiwan. Trump is also adding fuel to the fire in the Middle East. His pandering to Prime Minister Netanyahu will fuel Arab hatred of the US and inspire ISIS attacks on the US.
There are ongoing discussions of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. We can expect a catastrophic response. Trump is creating the conditions for igniting WWIII, or complete Western capitulation. We can only pray that a new Churchill or Roosevelt will sound the clarion call to reason and freedom.
Gutting American security and economy
To further undercut US security, Trump has gutted USAID and its soft power diplomacy. He and Musk are purging the FBI, CIA and the national intelligence community, as well as our world class military. He will install compliant loyalists. This is akin to Stalin’s purge of the military in the 1930s, which weakened the Soviet defense against Hitler’s army. Perhaps Trump thinks he can make a deal with Putin as Stalin did with Hitler in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. That effort to buy peace between the two totalitarian nations led to catastrophe for both.
Not content with undermining our national standing and security, Trump is also undermining the economy. Tariffs, mass deportations, budget cuts, and gutting of the regulatory and oversight bodies will kill the Biden expansion. The Trump-Musk team fired 300 National Nuclear Security Administration employees and had to hire them back. It has fired 350 EPA and 1000 Veteran Affairs staff, as well as threatening to fire 90,000 IRS staff. How will that help to collect the millions of dollars needed to address the national debt?
Farmers will be particularly hard hit with the loss of markets that will never return. Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and some Asian nations will seek other trading partners. The EU, Russia, and China will benefit. US exports of oil, gas, steel, autos, and agricultural products will be replaced by less mercurial sources.
The budget
Will the average citizen be more financially secure with the MAGA Project 2025 budget proposals? It promises 4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and austerity for the rest of us. To partly compensate, $2 trillion in budget cuts are anticipated. These include Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Affairs, supplementary nutrition and aid to 40 million low income families.
The result will be more interest to be paid on the national debt, something traditional Republicans decry. Also a weaker dollar, weaker purchasing power, and much higher inflation. Republican President Lincoln warned:
It is the same old serpent that says work and I will eat. You toil and I will enjoy the fruits thereof.
The rule of law
Trump’s vindictive attacks against our system of jurisprudence and rule of law will further undermine US security. He released the convicted January 6 insurrectionists into society. What example does that set for law enforcement?
Are we now ruled by a mafia oligarchy like Russia? Trump has unleashed an unelected and uncleared citizen, Elon Musk, to access private data in the name of efficiency. This is in exchange for his $225 million donation to the Trump campaign and free unlimited X endorsements. The Trump Administration also tried to award Tesla a $400 million contract for its armored Cybertruck. Only publicity undid the deal. The Age of the Robber Baron is back!
Minorities and opposition
Trump’s people attack minorities, immigrants, non binary peoples, females, free choice, and books not sanctioned by them. Anything other than what their orthodoxy declares legitimate is fair game. Anyone different becomes a target for hatred and vitriol. It is the same scenario that Hitler used against communists, socialists, Jews and non whites. Divide and Rule! Us Against Them! The Soviets, Khmer Rouge and ethnonationalists in Yugoslavia all used these tactics. I personally witnessed it in Cambodia and Yugoslavia.
Hungarian PM Orban, Turkish PM Erdogan, Slovak PM Fico, the German AfD party, and Putin are all in with Trump! They suppress the media and fee speech. They call any opposition the “enemy of the people.” The White House even denied access to the Associated Press because it refused to rename the Gulf of Mexico.
Education and religion
Trump is trying to re-educate and dumb down the public by abolishing the Education Department. His followers are instituting their own curriculum, banning books, and endorsing the Bible in public schools. This violates the First Amendment provision of separation of church and state. The new Secretary of Health and Human Services, RFK Jr., symbolizes the current anti-science trend.
Are these people Christians as exemplified in the New Testament? Where is their compassion, love of fellow man or even sense of humor?
Questions we need to answer
What can explain Trump/MAGA actions that weaken the US and our allies? Why are they empowering Russia, China and other authoritarians? Have we become so ill educated that we elect inept clowns to entertain us? Where are the competent leaders to set the example of pride, dignity, courage, real strength, and placing country before self?
A small time bully and wanna be mafioso who bends to Al Capone-Putin is leading us to destruction. Are we Rome under Caligula or Nero, awaiting the fall of the Empire? What dirt does Putin have on Trump? Or is he and his ilk fascist at heart? Do they support the German AfD, Orban, and Putin to bring on chaos from which they will profit?
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Europe needs to unify and toughen up, fast
Yes, the US is trying to exclude Europe from an issue of vital European interest. No, it is not the first time.
Why Washington excludes Europe
My personal familiarity with this apparently undiplomatic behavior dates from the Dayton agreements that end the Bosnian war. The Europeans were present, but excluded from the key decisions. Holbooke was convinced that they would only complicate things and slow the negotiations. So he ordered Bob Gallucci to get them involved in an endless discussion of the international police force. Should it have executive authority, as the Americans wanted, or not, as the European insisted?
The tactic worked. Only the Germans, who worked bilaterally with the Americans without EU cover, had any impact at Dayton. Holbrooke encouraged Bonn, to prevent a united European consensus against him. The other Europeans had no significant role. The British and French complained bitterly without effect. But they and the rest of the EU were left holding the bag–they paid for much of the reconstruction.
Something similar had happened a few years earlier in the reunification of Germany. The Americans agreed to a 2+4 (two Germanies plus the four occupying powers) format for the diplomacy. But Washington then prevented most important issues from getting on the 2+4 agenda. The format was a fig leaf for US and (West) German decisions.
I’m sure there are many other examples.
The Ukraine negotiations
The Americans are trying the same trick now in the Ukraine negotiations. They intend to work directly with the Russians, excluding not only the UK and EU but also Ukraine. Washington wants to avoid the complications and delays dealing with them would cause. It again intends to leave the Europeans holding the bag. They will be expected not only to pay for the reconstruction but also to field peacekeepers.
The Americans have already made one big mistake. They have telegraphed what they are up to. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s scolded the Europeans at NATO. President Trump’s undertook his talk with Russian President Putin without consultation with allies. The Russian and American Foreign Ministers are meeting this week in Riyadh. Vice President Vance’s offensive talk at the Munich Security Conference told the Europeans all they needed to know.
The US is moving to conclude the Ukraine war on Moscow’s terms. That means surrendering Ukrainian territory for peace. The Americans want, as they have for several presidencies, to pivot away from the defense of Europe. They are also playing to their domestic audience, some of which is Russophilic and anti-European.
What the Europeans need to do now
Amply alerted, the Europeans are reacting quicker than usual. Key states are meeting in Paris today to plan what to do. Here is what I would suggest:
- They agree to monitor a peace settlement only if it in principle preserves Ukraine’s pre-2014 sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- They supply Ukraine with all the weapons and intelligence it needs to win, substituting for any shortfalls from the US.
- Europeans should examine any agreement reached without their presence on its merits, but with prejudice.
- They deploy trainers and technicians to Ukraine to help with both military and civilian tasks.
The Americans won’t like this. They may even try something like what Holbrooke did: convince a big country like Germany or Poland to cooperate bilaterally. That would block a European consensus. But so long as Europe continues to insist on point 1 above, they won’t be stuck with a bad deal.
Trump is different
The difference between Holbrooke’s exclusion of the Europeans and Trump’s is significant. President Clinton, Holbrooke’s boss, backed the NATO alliance and was sympathetic to the EU, which then included the UK. After Dayton, there was no need for a continuing rift between Europe and the US. The agreements reached accorded with European preferences. The rift ended quickly and Europe carried a big burden post-war.
The same won’t happen with Trump. He is unsympathetic to alliances in general, NATO in particular, and the EU most of all. The Americans are pushing for an agreement that will encourage future Russian aggression. If Europe is going to punch at least its weight in future trans-Atlantic issues, it needs to unify and toughen up, fast.
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The America Trump wants is not democratic
NPR broadcast a piece this morning on the dismantling of US democratization efforts abroad.
The Trumpkins/Muskites are cutting the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI). NPR doesn’t say, but I assume the International Republican Institute (IRI) is also bleeding out. It gets much of its funding through NED, as does NDI. State Department and USAID funding for democratization is also frozen.
Trump is an authoritarian
This is not surprising. Trump has made it clear he thinks he is above the law:
Vice President Vance in Munich this week lectured the Europeans for their alleged intolerance of authoritarian politics. He also preferred meeting with the head of the neo-Nazi Alternative für Deutschland(AfD) rather than Germany’s chancellor.
They are not hiding their own identity or their preferences.
It is not just a preference
At home, Trump is doing authoritarian as well as talking it. The Trump-backed Musk cuts are hitting institutions and programs Congress has authorized and to which it has appropriated funds. The President has a sworn obligation to execute those instructions. The House impeached Trump in 2019 for failing to do so with Ukraine assistance. But that can’t happen again so long as Republicans have the majority. Trump is unleashed.
Some Federal courts have begun to order unfreezing of funds and halts or reversal of firings. Trump is not complying. He is defying and pushing back to force escalation of the cases to the Supreme Court. There he hopes the 6-3 majority he created will back his moves. Even if he loses there, the delay will have destroyed most of what Trump and Musk wanted destroyed.
What’s next?
I expect Trump to go after the courts. He will order up impeachments in Congress of a few Federal judges. If he picks weak and vulnerable ones, they will resign to protect themselves. This will precipitate many more resignations, giving him the possibility of filling them with his own, young, yes-people.
I suppose at some point there will be massive demonstrations around the country to object to the authoritarian drift. Trump will order violent police action in response. That’s what he wanted to do in his first term. This time around, he won’t hesitate.
He also won’t hesitate to cut taxes for the rich, as he did in his first term. Some of those big cuts expire at the end of 2025. The Republicans in Congress are lining up to do the deed. They’ll give the working class voters who backed Trump a pittance.
The economy is headed into stagflation. Inflation is already up a tad. The new tariffs and shortage of labor due to deportations will contribute more pressure on prices. Meanwhile the government firings and the added costs of the tariffs to consumers will slow the economy. The stock market, which has experienced a glorious 16 years of rise, will implode. That’s not really a prediction, as I haven’t attached a date to it. But I find it hard to believe we’ll get through the next four years without a bust.
Stopping the craziness
I see little immediate prospect for stopping this craziness. A few Republican defections in the House and Senate would help. But Trump’s threat to primary defectors has worked so far. The only real dissenters among Republicans have been people who aren’t running again.
The first big opportunity will be the November 2026 Congressional elections. All of the House and one third of the Senate will then be up for grabs. But only a handful of seats will be competitive. Winning enough of those to gain a majority in one of the Houses will be existential for the Democrats. And for democracy in America and the world.
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