Category: Daniel Serwer
Wrong and wrong, maybe wrong again?
I could of course be wrong again. But that’s the gloomy picture I am seeing on the day after an election gone wrong.
I was 100% wrong about the outcome of this election. I expected Harris to win the battleground states. She lost them. I expected her to win the popular vote by a wide margin. It’s not yet clear, but it appears she lost it.
I should have known better
I spent the last week in deep red Hall County, Georgia, doing “voter protection” for the Georgia Democratic Party. That entails monitoring paper ballot processing as well as helping adjudicate ambiguously marked ballots. I also duplicated a few dozen so that the scanner can read them. This is done in cooperation with Republicans and County election officials. Yesterday I was a poll watcher in a precinct whose voters include both a retirement community and mostly Mexican immigrants. The electoral mechanism both in the county government center and at the polling place was professional, efficient, and thus boring.
The demographics were more interesting. Hall is a county of more than 42,000 people that depends heavily on two industries. Chickens are first. Medicine is second. Both industries use large numbers of Mexican immigrants. There are not many native-born Americans feeding and slaughtering the chickens or tending the bed pans. Nor I imagine would you get on well doing construction, another thriving sector, if you didn’t speak Spanish.
By the time I got to the polling center yesterday about 11 am the early rush was over. Mid-day belonged mainly to the retirees, many of whom looked like they were patrons of the medical center. The late afternoon saw a rush of mostly younger Mexican Americans. A young US-born Mexican American poll worker provided translation whenever needed. I observed no tension of any sort between the two demographics. The mostly retired poll workers were impeccably correct and helpful to the immigrants, all of whom were US citizens. I hope they all recognized the symbiosis between the two communities.
My precinct voted more than 60% for Trump. Symbiosis doesn’t extend to the ballot box. I have no doubt about where most of the Trump and Harris votes came from.
It’s identity politics
Trump has found a way to make voting for him a question of identity. His racist dog whistles were vital to his first election. His macho man displays are vital to this second, as they shifted male votes in his direction. I find both difficult to understand, as I don’t regard white, male identity as anything more than an arbitrary classification. You could just as well call me short and old, with much more physical evidence to back the claim. I’m not proud of being white, male, short, or old.
I am proud of being an American. To me, that means having lots of individual rights and collective responsibilities. During my lifetime, I have seen the rights expanded. Younger people, Blacks, Latinos, women, and LGBTQ Americans now enjoy far more freedom than they did in my 1950s childhood. It seems to me the responsibility of white males to adjust to those changes. “All men are created equal” is not ambiguous (even if it should now read “all people”). “Make America Great Again” is a slogan that appeals to those who want to return to segregated, male-dominated, heterosexual America. I don’t share that aspiration.
I expect Trump to try to fulfill many of his promises. He made them to cater to interest groups that own him. He will try to deport large numbers of undocumented immigrants and end asylum. As President, Trump will impose more tariffs, raising the cost of living and inducing retaliation by other countries. He will fire large numbers of civil servants. His allies in Congress will try to end abortion country-wide and repeal Obamacare. They will give more tax relief to the rich and burden the middle class. Trump will welcome cryptocurrencies and try to manipulate the Federal Reserve, undermining monetary stability. His Supreme Court nominees will be people prepared to adjust their jurisprudence to his policy preferences.
I could be wrong again
As bad as I think the re-election of Trump is for America, I fear it is worse for the world. Trump will do at least some of what he has promised. We will see an end to American support for Ukraine and surrender of part of it to Putin. That will encourage Russia to try again in Moldova or the Baltics. He will withdraw American troops from South Korea and Japan, encouraging them to get their own nuclear weapons.
The Balkans, which concern many of my readers, will not be top priority. But Trump’s re-election will encourage ethnonationalists throughout the region. If Ukraine is partitioned, why shouldn’t Serbia to try to capture northern Kosovo and Republika Srpska? Why shouldn’t Kosovo join Albania? Washington might even help. War will be a real possibility. Ethnic cleansing and state collapse will follow. All the while, the Trump family will be benefiting financially from Jared Kushner’s Saudi-financed investments in Serbia and Albania.
In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will get Trump’s full support. The new Trump Administration will not restrain Israel in Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon. Trump will likely encourage military confrontation with Iran. That is the only option left to deter Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Trump will try to get the Saudis to recognize Israel. They will string him along. It remains to be seen whether they will accept Netanyahu’s “less than a state” for Palestine. That proposition is essentially the continuation of the status quo: one state with unequal rights. It is what many call “apartheid.”
I could of course be wrong again. But this is the gloomy picture I am seeing on the day after an election gone wrong.
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The horse race Harris will win
Yesterday’s final Atlanta rally for Kamala Harris was as expected: enthusiastic, loud, and crowded. We couldn’t get to the section designated for voter protection workers. But we had a decent spot that we lost when Ms S fainted. If you are out in the sun for a couple of hours, drink water!
The impression she makes
I don’t know who the celebrities were who preceded the Vice President. Not my world. But Senators Ossoff and Warnock both spoke well. They know how to slice and dice thoughts into little bits that allow time for absorption and applause. And they both have good reason to hope that Georgia will go blue, as it did for them.
Harris is different. She adopts a more conversational tone. No shouting long vowels into the microphone. Her sentence structure is more elaborate. She leaves less time for the crowd to react. Harris is amiable and approachable more than authoritative. She wants your vote and lets you know it.
The horse race is still close
The press is emphasizing the closeness of the race. “Battle to the Wire in Swing States” headlines the New York Times. The Economist polling averages show a narrowing race.
But Harris has clearly improved on Biden’s odds. The Economist still shows her in the lead in the popular vote, though not in the Electoral College. Late deciders are mostly going to Harris. Women, who favor Harris by double digits, are voting early in higher numbers than men. The Democrats have a much more extensive get out the vote campaign than the Republicans. A reputed Iowa pollster shows Harris in the lead there. No one had thought it would go blue.
That’s encouraging, but I am appalled that it is still this close. Trump, as the New York Times made clear in 110 words today, is unqualified. He will be a disaster in a second term. Harris will certainly not be a disaster. She is steady, sensible, and serious. I like that.
Out on a limb
I am going to out on a limb here. Harris will certainly win the popular vote. California and New York, where Trump is anathema with many voters, guarantee that. In the Electoral College, I think Harris has a chance to win most of the known “swing” or “battleground” states. In the Times/Siena polling, she is already leading (within the margin of error) in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied while in Arizona Trump leads.
But all the polling depends on estimate of who will actually vote. That doesn’t take into account the enthusiasm factor that gets people to the polls. Will more Americans in the swing states bother voting for a candidate who behaves like Trump? Will religious people who say they share Trump’s values vote for rapist Jeffrey Epstein’s BFF?
It’s all about turnout now
The problem is that Trump voters won’t hear any bad news about him. That includes the tapes describing their hero’s sexual exploits, which include underage girls and his best friends’ wives. Fox News isn’t going to cover that. The New York Times hasn’t yet either. The video above isn’t running on network TV. I’m not even sure it would be permitted.
Trump will of course contest any election he doesn’t win. That is a story for another day. But the best antidote to his “rigged” election claims is a landslide victory in the Electoral College. That would make the post-election quarreling easier for Harris.
Now it’s all about turnout. Persuading time is over. The campaign that gets its voters to the poll wins. I think Harris has the edge there. But we’ll have to wait and see.
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Mushroom clouds over the Middle East
Former IAEA inspector Pantelis Ikonomou writes:
After Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nuclear deterrence became the strongest parameter in projecting geopolitical power. Nuclear weapons could eventually be decisive in the Middle East.
Israel and Iran are now in direct confrontation
Safeguarding state security and regional dominance are the fundamental aims of the main protagonists, Israel and Iran. Since spring, they have been confronting each other directly. Two exchanges of missiles have resulted. Further escalation seems irreversible.
Serious questions need serious answers. Where is this dynamic leading? What is next? Is there hope for an end to the escalation after next week’s presidential elections in the US? Is the global superpower willing or even capable of rerouting the war dynamics towards a peaceful direction?
The next American President
Candidate Donald Trump in 2018 withdrew the US unilaterally from the Iran nuclear deal. A few days ago Trump urged Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Doing that would force Iran to end its doctrine of strategic patience. Iran would exit the NPT, develop the military dimension of its nuclear program, and construct nuclear warheads. Iranian parliamentarians are already proposing this course of action.
The other candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, was an important voice in Washington as the current Middle East crisis developed. President Biden has struggled to prevent the escalatory spiral. His effort slowed but not stopped it.
The consequences are dire
Continuation of this situation could force Israel to abandon its doctrine of nuclear opacity. It neither confirms nor denies its nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Meir considered using nuclear weapons during the 1973 Yom Kippur war to respond to Egyptian army advances. Prime Minister Netanyahu could also be forced to consider or threaten their use.
An Iranian decision to pursue nuclear weapons or Israeli confirmation of its nuclear capability would change the situation dramatically. Either or both would challenge the credibility of the Non Proliferation Treaty, the IAEA, and the UN Security Council. Adding Iran to the non-NPT states (India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel) could undermine the global security architecture. Mushroom clouds would loom over the Middle East.
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Georgia in contrast: red and blue
I spent yesterday afternoon monitoring opening and scanning of paper absentee, overseas, and military ballots in Hall County, Georgia. Hall is just north of Fulton (Atlanta), where I spent the last two weeks as a roving (outside) poll watcher. Hall is a deep red county, whereas Fulton is deep blue.
The process is good
I did not get to talk with many voters in Hall. The process I observed there started with slitting open the envelopes containing paper ballots, their removal from the “secrecy” sleeves, tearing off of the tabs that contain inventory numbers connected to particular voters, shuffling so that ballots cannot be traced to individuals, and scanning into the election system computer. Some ballots can’t be scanned and are separated out for later human scrutiny. Friday I’ll be on a panel adjudicating what to do those. Some ballots are not clearly marked, contain write-ins, or are printed on plain paper. Military units can send in the those on plain paper. The last are received from military units.
Throughout, the election workers keep careful track of the number of ballots and envelopes. Discrepancies happen. Sometimes two ballots arrive in the same envelope, or none. They don’t open the envelopes until the day they process them. Three workers oversee the scanning. They process all the ballots from opened envelopes the same day.
It would be hard to find fault with the process. Or with the attitude of the election workers. They seek to make cheating impossible.
So why is Hall County red?
Of course I don’t really know why Hall County is red. My few interactions with people there were entirely friendly. The folks at the Waffle House made me a fine steak and bacon sandwich. There were a few very large Trump signs and American flags. Some signs promised a Trump victory would lower taxes. I doubt anyone in Hall County is rich enough to gain from the tax cuts Trump will try to make. The main industry in Hall is chickens. Many of the workers are immigrants.
I asked one Harris-supporting resident about why people in Hall County support Trump. She thought it was crime. A few spectacular murders, especially the first at the University of Georgia since 1983, have generated fear. An undocumented immigrant is on trial for that one.
There is little a President can do about crime. Local authorities run most police forces, courts, and prisons. But Trump’s conflation of crime with immigration has gained traction. Never mind that immigrants don’t commit more crimes than native born Americans. Or that Hall County was red well before the February University of Georgia murder.
It’s about identity
My own conclusion is that people vote Trump more because of identity than policy. Hall County will gain little if Trump wins and deports immigrants. To the contrary, it will wreck the county’s chicken industry. The fear of immigrant crime is not based in the facts. It is based in the feeling that immigrants are not like us. They speak a different language, have different customs, and likely vote for Harris. That’s enough to make white men like a four-flushing liar. Go figure.
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What happens if Trump wins?
In many parts of the world, the answer is obvious. Trump has said he would strike a deal with Putin on Ukraine. That means surrender of at least Ukrainian territory Russia already controls. In the Middle East, Trump backs Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu 100%. That means Palestinians will be restricted to even smaller areas of the West Bank and Gaza. The prospects for a Palestinian state will be reduced to nil. In Asia, Trump has encouraged Japan and South Korea to get their own nuclear weapons. That, he hopes, will enable US withdrawal. Taiwan will be surrendered, sooner or later, to China.
But what about the Balkans? The region won’t be a priority for either a President Trump or a President Harris. She has said nothing so far as I know about the Balkans. But she is a vigorous rule of law defender of human rights. Trump has also said little about the Balkans, but we know what he did last time. We should expect more of the same.
President Harris: human rights and rule of law
Balkan policy under Harris will hopefully be consistent with her commitment to human rights and rule of law.
That implies keeping NATO and EU membership open, protecting individual rights, and fighting corruption. Consistency would require that American diplomacy return to opposing ethnic nationalism and promoting liberal democracy. Appeasement of President Vucic should decline, as should tolerance for the current Bosnia HiRep. He has backed ethnonationalists and opposed the pending European Court of Human Rights decision that undermines their hold on Bosnia. Interest in extending Kosovo’s sovereignty and countering corruption in Serbia and Albania should increase.
President Trump: partition and profits
In Trump’s first term, his Balkan envoy Ric Grenell favored partition of Kosovo. I am not among those who believe that he can become Secretary of State. But he could take Jim O’Brien’s place as Assistant Secretary for Europe. As soon as the partition option is opened again, it will spread. First to southern Serbia but then to Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and southwestern Serbia (Sandjak). Populations will start moving. Violence will result.
Trump/Grenell will also favor the Balkan fortunes of son-in-law Jared Kushner. That means more appeasement of Serbia’s President Vucic and Albania’s Prime Minister Rama. Both of them have sought to line Trump’s pockets with real estate deals. No doubt they stand to gain as well, politically if not financially.
Sooner rather than later
I don’t think any of this will respect the diplomatic clock. If Trump wins, the changes will start quickly. Europeans will assume NATO is dead. Russia will too. In the Balkans, Vucic and Republika Srpska President Dodik will try to produce facts on the ground. They’ll leave the conference rooms for later. With NATO immobilized, Serbia could try to grab northern Kosovo and the RS can secede from Bosnia. This could all happen during the lame duck presidency, before the January 20 inauguration, or very soon thereafter.
The Biden Administration needs to prevent disaster on its own watch, if Trump is elected. The State and Defense Departments should be preparing now and forewarning the Balkanites, even before the election. EUFOR and KFOR should be prepared to counter partition moves in Kosovo and Bosnia. Plans for reinforcement should be ready. Even now, it would be a good idea to move more troops to Brcko, in northeastern Bosnia. Without Brcko, RS secession is improbable.
Later rather than sooner
If Harris wins, all of the above could still happen. But later rather than sooner, if she fails to correct the mistakes of the Biden Administration. A thorough review of Balkans policy is long overdue. It won’t be hard to discern why Biden couldn’t get anything more than ammunition for Ukraine from appeasing Serbia. Vucic is not embracing the West and won’t. Russia has infested his security services. His own ambition for a Serbian world is analogous to Putin’s Russian world.
The harder part will be correcting course. The EU and US need to lower ambitions for the Dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. They need to raise the pressure on Belgrade and counter Russia’s malign influence there and in Montenegro. And Washington and Brussels need to strengthen the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both Bosnia and Kosovo.
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Complaint department, North Macedonia
I received today this letter from Ali Ahmeti, the President of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI). It is the leading Albanian opposition party in North Macedonia. The letter’s aim is to generate action by the US and EU:
I am writing to you today with deep concern about recent political and constitutional developments in North Macedonia that threaten the historic achievements of the Ohrid Agreement, as well as the fundamental principles of equality and peace in our multiethnic state, particularly for the Albanian community in North Macedonia.
It is troubling that plans, surprisingly announced by the government itself, indicate that the Constitutional Court intends to annul key provisions of the Law on the Use of Languages, which established the Albanian language as an equal official language under Amendment 5 of the Constitution. This poses a severe blow to the Ohrid Agreement, interethnic harmony, and stability in the country, potentially taking us back to the pre-2001 conditions that led to crisis and conflict.
Furthermore, the Constitutional Court’s decision to prohibit the identification of citizens’ ethnic affiliation within state institutions undermines the principle of collective rights of ethnic communities and nullifies the core balancing mechanisms and the Badinter principle, which are central to the Ohrid Agreement.
These mechanisms were established to guarantee the collective rights of ethnic communities based on demographic reality, thereby providing essential protection against any form of domination. By eliminating the declaration of ethnic affiliation, the Constitutional Court is breaching the Constitution itself, whose fundamental value is fair and adequate representation, effectively reverting us to pre-Ohrid conditions.
Lastly, following the recent elections, the fundamental principle of the Ohrid Agreement, which requires the formation of a political majority based on fair representation of ethnic communities, has been severely violated.
This action is not merely an issue for the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), but affects the principle of fair representation guaranteed by Amendment 6 of North Macedonia’s Constitution, serving as a safeguard against majority dominance over minorities.
These three significant setbacks to the foundations of the Ohrid Agreement pose a serious threat to peace, stability, interethnic harmony, and multiethnic democracy in North Macedonia.
These are not merely internal political matters but carry severe regional implications for overall stability. These interventions threaten to dismantle the key elements of peace and equality, taking us back to a period of crisis and conflict.
At this critical juncture, I urge for joint and decisive action to protect the achievements of the Ohrid Agreement and the guaranteed rights of the Albanian community. Your engagement in raising international awareness and mobilizing relevant institutions regarding this constitutional and political crisis is essential.
Thank you for your tireless efforts to promote peace, stability, and European integration in the Western Balkans.
Regular readers may imagine that I have ambivalent feelings about some of the issues raised in this letter.
Language
Not, however, about the language question. The Ohrid agreement is crystal clear on this subject. It requires that any language spoken by more than 20% of the population should be co-official with Macedonian.
I don’t see how you bring that obligation into question without creating more problems than North Macedonia already has. It was an important part of the 2001 peace settlement. Maintaining it is important.
Ethnic identification of government employees
The second issue concerns ethnic identification of government employees. Of course I prefer a system that is color blind and based on merit. But not specifying ethnic identification of government employees will not make government employment color blind. Names pretty much tell you who is Albanian and who is Macedonian. I suspect the intention of this proposition is to continue the current predominance of Macedonians in senior government positions.
Faking color blindness won’t work. Macedonia needs to diversify its public sector employees to more fully reflect the population’s diversity. I’m not a fan of quotas. But affirmative action with priority given to qualifications is a process that can yield reasonable results. Many Albanians have a qualification most Macedonians lack: they speak both languages. Government hiring should take that into account.
Fair representation in government
The third issue of fair representation is not fully specified. I imagine it refers to the positions given to ethnic Albanians in the current government. That is is more a political complaint than a juridical or constitutional one. One of the main Macedonian complaints about the previous government was the preponderance of Albanians in key positions. The winners of the last election sought to weaken the Albanian presence because they won the election.
DUI’s Albanian rivals negotiated the current coalition deal. If they did it badly, that is an issue for the next election. American and European diplomats can point that out to the Prime Minister, but it is not really an international issue.
Bottom lines
So my responses are
- Yes to Ali Ahmeti on the language issue,
- No to the government on the ethnic identification issue, and
- Let the voters decide on the fair representation issue.
But what difference does it make what I think? Fundamentally, these are issues that Macedonia’s citizens need to decide.
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