Category: Daniel Serwer

Stevenson’s army, December 28

Looking back, New Yorker has huge story reviewing The Plague Year.

Former CIA official says we’re in a permanent cyber conflict; US has been doing it, too; US needs better defenses.
Brookings has key pub: Vital Statistics on Congress.

Looking forward: House votes today on NDAA veto override. If it passes, on to the Senate.
All sides gear up for redistricting fights.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , ,

Lawless rogue in hissy fit undermines security and law

The “lawless rogue” characterization I’ve lifted from Barry MacCaffrey, a retired American four-star who isn’t mincing words. They are appropriate for a president who has been issuing pardons outside the usual vetting process mostly for people who in no way merit them, including mass murderers and corrupt former members of Congress. Not to mention Jared Kushner’s father, whose hiring of a prostitute to embarrass his brother-in-law and prevent his sister from testifying against him is a crime for the morally depraved record books.

But it’s the hissy fit part that counts for most Americans. Trump has vetoed the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which has for 58 years expressed the Congress’ views on current and future defense issues. The President’s motives are unclear: he has variously cited its elimination of Confederate names from military bases, what he alleges is its softness on China (it isn’t), and its failure to deprive social media companies of legal protection from lawsuits, a completely unrelated issue arising from the warnings Twitter posts on his lies. If the protection were abolished, Twitter would be likely to banish Trump altogether, so how this would help the President isn’t clear. Among many other things, the veto will delay combat pay for some American troops serving abroad. Add that to the President’s failure so far to respond appropriately to Russia’s cyber hack of government and company computer networks.

Trump is also refusing to sign the latest corona virus relief legislation. It is not clear whether he will veto it, but if he does many tens of millions of Americans will see delays in payments already approved by Congress and millions more will be subject to eviction from their homes. The President objects to the $900 billion bill because he wants higher relief payments, but he failed to instruct his negotiators accordingly during the 7 months or so it took to reach agreement. He also objects to some annual appropriations attached to the legislation, including items proposed in his own budget message to Congress. The Democrats, who from the first wanted higher payments, offered to approve the President’s preference by unanimous consent (the only way to amend a bill already approved by both houses), but Republicans objected.

Trump has now retired to Mar-a-Lago to play golf and presumably issue more pardons focused mainly on supporters, potential supporters, and family members. The most disgraceful so far are the pardons issued to four Blackwater security guards who gunned down unarmed civilians in Iraq. I suppose more of that variety are possible, but more likely he will now concentrate clemency on his children, their spouses, and himself.

Whether accepting pardons legally implies guilt is still debated, despite a 1915 Supreme Court decision, but the implication is strong. Blanket pardons from possible future prosecution, like the one President Ford gave resigned President Nixon, leave uncertain precisely what the recipient was guilty of and essentially put individuals above the law (at least at the Federal level–they could still be prosecuted at the state level). It is inconceivable to me that the courts will uphold a pardon of that sort given by Trump to Trump. That would constitute the definition of corruption: abuse of public office for private gain.

One thing is clear: such vague pardons undermine the rule of law, just as veto of the defense authorization undermines national security and failure to sign the corona virus bill will undermine public order by making desperate people even more desperate. Trump is trying to sink the ship of state before his successor can take over. He won’t succeed, but he is doing a lot of damage, not least to the Republicans who are mostly still trying to stay loyal as he twists and turns in ever more outrageous directions. Bah, humbug, is Trump’s Christmas greeting, to them and to the rest of the country.

Tags :

Stevenson’s army, December 24

The president has vetoed the NDAA [message here]; the House will try to override on Monday.
RollCall reports that the first State Dept authorization bill in two decades was dropped from inclusion in the NDAA because of WH demands from Ivanka Trump.

The omnibus appropriations and covid relief bill faces an uncertain future. If sent to WH today,  Congress could avoid a pocket veto with override votes by the morning of Jan 3.Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi promises a unanimous consent motion today to have $2000 stimulus checks, as requested by Trump. GOP leader McCarthy may offer his own UC to strip the foreign aid money from the bill.
In other news, the administration considers closing the Baghdad embassy after the recent attacks from uncertain sources.
Administration wants $500 million arms sale to Saudis.
How to respond to Russian cyber hack. Fred Kaplan has measured response.

Just Security writer calls for legal agreements drawing the line between espionage and attacks.

Tags : , , , , , ,

Stevenson’s army, December 23

Today the president must veto the NDAA or it will become law without his signature. WIll he carry through on his threat? [He is supposed to fly to Florida at 4pm.]

Trump surprised his own staff by disparaging the omnibus bill and hinting at a veto, though his complaints were more about the foreign aid in the appropriations measures combined with covid relief. If he vetoes that, government will have to shut down next week.
Among his pardons, Trump included the 4 Blackwater contractors convicted of killing Iraqi civilians.
The Senate can’t organize itself and begin nomination hearings until the Georgia results are clear.

AP has numbers for the Trump legacy.
David Ignatius also believes that the Russia hack was espionage, not an act of war. Fred Kaplan has more background.

NYT says US Navy has a secret mission against Venezuela but off the coast of Africa.
Sweden considers joining NATO.
Trump wants to politicize 88% of OMB personnel.
FP details how China used stolen data to catch US spies.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , , , , , ,

Stevenson’s army, December 22

In the Taiwan Strait and in Strait of Hormuz.
FP says China exposed US agents in Africa.
Politico mentions some of the extra items included in the Covid Relief & Omnibus appropriations bill Congress passed Monday night: Among the other items included: a hard-fought bipartisan agreement to protect patients from receiving “surprise” medical bills, a compromise version of an annual authorization for the intelligence community, the creation of two new Smithsonian museums, tax extenders, a Tibet human rights bill, and a ban on race-day horse doping, just to name a few.

Congress will come back to vote on NDAA veto overrride.
And here’s the 2021 Senate calendar.

Prof Brands has nuanced ideas for responding to Russian hack.

Mexican military gains in power and role in society.
Report says DOD needs to look out for extremists in the ranks.
Other signers reaffirm commitment to JCPOA.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , , , , ,

A disgraceful president distracts, lies, and fails, as always

Just a short list of the things Donald Trump has threatened or rumint says he might do before leaving office:

  1. Declare martial law and use the military to rerun the election in states he lost by narrow margins.
  2. Appoint a special prosecutor to investigate election fraud who has failed to come up with a single instance.
  3. Attack Iran.
  4. Declare Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman immune from a lawsuit accusing him of targeting for assassination a former top intel officer who could disclose damaging secrets about MBS’ ascent to power.
  5. Pardon himself, family members, and cronies.
  6. Veto the annual National Defense Authorization Act to prevent military bases from removing their Confederate names.
  7. Open more Arctic protected areas to oil and gas drilling.
  8. Encourage Republicans in the House and Senate to object to the Electoral College votes by their states when Congress convenes to count the votes January 5.

All these things are in the wacko category. That they would be considered, or even rumored, is unprecedented.

All this is intended mainly to keep the media spotlight on the President, who resents any attention to others even in his own administration, never mind to President-elect Biden. He may do none of the above, or do milder versions. He may just be testing how much he can get away with. Or he may be imitating a good magician, who attracts your attention to one thing while he does something else. Trump’s failure to respond appropriately to the Russian intelligence cyberhack and his funneling of political donations into a fund that can be used for almost any purpose would be attracting far more attention without the spotlight on 1-7.

If there is something Trump is good at, it’s flim flam. Infrastructure week never came. He never published his tax returns, documented that Melania didn’t work in the US illegally, or proposed a health care plan. The virus never disappeared. Kim Jung-un never gave up his nuclear weapons. Iran never came back to the negotiating table. Nicolas Maduro never left the presidency of Venezuela. The forever wars are still ongoing. US troops are still deployed, in ever larger numbers, in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Foreigners long ago figured Trump out. American international prestige hasn’t been lower since the end of the Vietnam war. Most Americans also figured him out. He lost by 7 million popular votes. But a shift of just 40,000 votes in the closest states would have tipped the Electoral College and handed a second term to a president who had presided over a failed response to the Covid-19 pandemic, an economy not much more than halfway recovered from the sharpest decline since the Great Depression, and profound social cleavages aggravated by presidential statements leading to disorder in major cities.

Trump’s base and 90% of the Republicans in Congress still haven’t wavered. Two-thirds of the base thinks the election was lost due to fraud, no evidence of which has been found after 7 weeks of trying and the loss of more than 50 court cases alleging malfeasance. Meanwhile, Trump is exploiting distraction by executing more Federal prisoners, turning back more immigrants, installing more Trumpians in government jobs, and reversing more environmental regulations.

I suppose the air may go out of the Trump balloon eventually. Will the Republicans really stick with him if after leaving office he is convicted of tax fraud or if his real estate enterprise is shown to be involved in laundering Russian crime money? I suppose so, because they already know the allegations are likely more true than false.

Inauguration day is only a month off. But we can expect Trump to distract, lie, and fail every single day, as always.

Tweet