Category: Daniel Serwer
The agreement they didn’t sign
I wrote most of this piece before today’s meeting. The analysis of the agreement is I think correct, even if OBE.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal were supposed to sign today has one great virtue. There are no obvious no-no’s, like limits on its territorial extent or obligations Ukraine will find onerous. It really doesn’t constitute what President Trump said he wanted, which was payback for US assistance. It does make Ukraine devote half its future natural resource revenue to the joint fund the agreement promises. But that is no loss since the fund is devoted exclusively to investments in Ukraine.
But if there are no glaring errors, it still doesn’t constitute a “devastating blow” to Putin. The devil is in the details, which haven’t been negotiated yet. Does this agreement apply to all of Ukraine’s sovereign territory as of 2014, before the first Russian intervention? Can the US turn around and negotiate a similar agreement with Russia that applies to territory Moscow now controls? It just isn’t clear.
This is essentially an agreement to negotiate an agreement. No harm yet in that.
No security guarantees
The big omission from Ukraine’s perspective is the lack of security guarantees. The agreement says this:
The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.
That is a backhanded way of saying the US won’t give guarantees but will support Ukraine’s effort to get them. The implied source is Europe, including the United Kingdom and Turkey as well as the European Union. No one else is available. The Europeans should bear this burden. Russian guarantees aren’t worth the paper they are written on.
The problem is that the US saying that the US will not guarantee the guarantors. That is, if NATO European member states guarantee Ukraine’s security, NATO’s Article 5 will not apply to their forces. If the Europeans get into trouble, for example with the Russians, the US will not help them out.
That is important. The obligation to protect European forces in Bosnia led to the Dayton peace agreement. Dick Holbrooke convinced President Clinton it would be better to deploy Americans to end the war rather than conduct an evacuation of the Europeans.
Production isn’t going to be easy or quick
Ukraine is a big country and may have lots of resources of interest to the US.
Here are the more “critical” deposits, rare earths and others (the pinkish area in the southeast is Russian-occupied territory):
But none of this is going to be easy or quick to exploit. Yesterday’s NPR interview on the subject suggested it will 18 years from the required up-to-date mapping to mineral production from a mine:
That would be 18 years in peacetime, or in a peaceful area of the country. I’m not holding my breath.
So why did it blow up?
Signing this agreement, which is no more than an agreement to negotiate, would have been much better than a pissing match. But Vance and Trump seem to me determined to sandbag Zelensky, who wasn’t humble enough for their tastes:
Zelensky should not have taken the bait. Who knows what comes next!
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Who should decide Bosnia’s fate?
I am delighted to see Milorad Dodik, president of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska (RS), held accountable. A Bosnian court convicted him Wednesday for his refusal to implement decisions of the international community’s High Representative.
But let’s not celebrate too much. Some of us remember how war criminal Radovan Karadzic behaved after the war in Bosnia. He continued to govern in the RS even though barred from office. Only when he went underground to escape capture did he lose control.
Dodik can pay a fine to escape the one-year prison sentence. The six-year ban on holding office will prove meaningless unless his loyalists are removed from power.
Is the bear a paper tiger?
That said, Dodik, known as the “Bosnian bear,” has so far been unable to rouse his supporters to outright rebellion. His threats of secession are proving hollow.
Serbian President Vucic will make a show of backing Dodik, but Belgrade doesn’t want the RS to secede. That would put Vucic in a tight spot. If he recognizes an independent RS, the European Union will be unhappy. If he doesn’t, his own ethnic nationalist constituency will be unhappy. Better for him if Dodik remains non grata and unable to compete politically. Vucic isn’t the first Serbian president to fear competition in Belgrade from a Bosnian Serb nationalist.
Only time will tell, but Dodik could be a paper tiger.
The self-licking ice cream cone
That won’t solve Bosnia’s problems. They are rooted in a stubbornly unreformed constitution the US and EU imposed at Dayton in 1995. It ended the war at the cost of functional governance. Changing that will require a new configuration of Bosnian politicians willing to risk the disapproval of ethnic nationalists. That configuration is difficult to produce because the constitution favors the election of ethnic nationalists. It’s a self-licking ice cream cone.
Dodik is only one mainstay of this self-perpetuating system. Croat nationalist Dragan Covic is another. He is still in place. Dodik’s plight will frighten Covic and make him an even harder line ethnic nationalist. He wants a “third entity” in Bosnia and is currying Moscow’s favor to get it.
Bosniak politicians also play the ethnic nationalist game. But they are more divided than either the Serbs or the Croats. They are also less fearful of a one-person/one-vote system. Their numerical majority gives them more confidence they can defend their vital interests.
The reforms needed
The needed reforms are no secret. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly said what Bosnia needs to do for EU membership. Jasmin Mujanovic has analyzed the options. Ismet Fatih Cancar has has outlined a route to Dayton 2.0, including NATO membership. But political leadership in these directions has been lacking.
Also lacking is international pressure in the right directions. The Biden Administration chose to appease Vucic and allowed the HiRep to coddle Covic. Jared Kushner’s business interests in Belgrade compromise the new Trump Administration from the start. Trump himself is an ethnic nationalist. If he agrees to partition of Ukraine, even temporarily, all bets are off for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So the fate of Bosnia is where it should be: with its citizens. The conviction of Dodik can help, but far more is needed.
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Deal, no deal, ceasefire, peace agreement?
Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet Friday with President Trump to sign a minerals agreement the Americans have been insisting on. The Financial Times reports:
The final version of the agreement, dated February 25 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine.
The $500 billion demand has disappeared. No security guarantees are included. The US stake in the fund is unspecified.
Deal, or no deal?
It is hard to know what to think about this, as it all depends on the details and on implementation. It is certainly not common practice for countries providing support to insist on repayment. But Trump is Trump. Personally, I wouldn’t sign anything he offers, but Zelensky is in a difficult spot. I hope he knows what he is doing.
The bigger question is whether this will bring Trump around to supporting Ukraine rather than Russia. I doubt it. Moscow will offer to match any terms Zelensky signs for minerals at least in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Trump won’t resist. Two deals of this sort will solidify partition.
What now?
Trump will continue to insist on peace talks. He desperately wants credit for ending the war. He has already given President Putin most of what Moscow wants. Trump is ready to accept Russian occupation of the territory it controls inside Ukraine. He has blamed Ukraine for the war. And he no doubt wants to end the shipment of arms to what he regards as the losing side.
Ukraine can do without the arms, at least for the next year or so. President Biden shipped ample supplies. The more important question is whether the US is prepared to continue providing intelligence. That is vital to Ukraine’s targeting. Also important to Ukraine is the use of Elon Musk’s StarLink satellite network, which it uses for military communications.
Trump’s reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine makes the Europeans more important than ever. If they step up their military supplies, Ukraine has a chance to outlast Russia in the current war of attrition. If they don’t, Kyiv’s manpower shortage will become ever more visible and relevant. Ukraine needs both Europe’s arms and its economic and financial support.
What about peace?
If Trump continues to insist, a ceasefire is a real possibility. Both Ukraine and Russia need a respite, during which they will resupply and reorganize for renewed fighting. The Europeans are saying they are prepared to observe a ceasefire. But the confrontation line is 600 miles long, with forces on both sides stronger than any the Europeans will deploy. The experience of monitoring a much shorter confrontation line in southern Lebanon does not bode well.
Neither Kyiv nor Moscow seems to me prepared to compromise on their basic war aims. Russia wants to limit Ukraine’s sovereign choices, like joining NATO. Ukraine wants Russia out of all of its territory, including Crimea. There may be a mutually hurting stalemate, but there is no mutually enticing way out. A ceasefire will give both sides time to contemplate whether one exists, but they certainly haven’t defined one yet.
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The hour of Europe really has arrived
The three-year anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has come and gone, with lots of fanfare. But nothing more discordant than the US vote in the General Assembly. Washington voted with Moscow and its friends against a resolution condemning the invasion. For the Trump Administration, calling an invasion aggression was just too much.
The real estate mogul views war
Trump has upended US policy on Ukraine. He has blamed Kyiv for the Russian invasion and asked for repayment of US aid. The Americans are talking with Russia about an end to the war without Ukrainians or Europeans in the room.
But none of that is the worst. The core problem is not procedural or rhetorical. It is the solution Trump will favor. He sees the war as a fight over territory, which he will propose to divide. Russia will keep whatever it has conquered and Ukraine will get the rest. This is a real estate mogul’s view of war. He takes a similar view of Gaza. It’s about territory for him. Get rid of the people and rebuild to Israel’s specifications, which means no Palestinians.
I need hardly mention that he is treating Panama, Canada, and Greenland with the same territorial eye.
It’s about sovereignty, not territory
But Ukraine is not about territory. Nor are Panama, Canada, and Greenland. Or even Gaza. In all these places the real issue is sovereignty, not territory. The Canada proposition is an obvious bad joke. It has already caused Canadians to look more to the UK and Europe for their future security. They are correct to do so.
But Panama and Greenland have good reason to fear Trump’s intentions. Neither is strong enough on its own to resist. The 1989 American invasion of Panama is forgotten in America, but it is living memory in Panama. Greenland has no military, and Denmark has a tiny one (16,000 total). Pituffik Space Base, until recently Thule Air Base, has fewer than 1000 Americans and contractors. If the US wanted to expand it, Denmark would no doubt have tried to cooperate. The Danes would also welcome US investment in mineral exploration and exploitation in Greenland. But Trump’s insistence on buying the island, and threatening that otherwise he’ll take it by force, will generate resistance. Denmark is small, but sovereign.
Sovereignty isn’t divisible, but it is shareable
The problem with sovereignty is that it isn’t divisible. But it is shareable. The European Union is a case of shared sovereignty. Its currency, the euro, belongs to no single member state. Likewise its common market and its rules for the circulation of people, capital, and services.
The Minsk I and II agreements that Moscow and Kyiv negotiated, but never implemented, entailed shared sovereignty. Let’s leave aside who would have benefited most and who was responsible for their non-implementation. They would have required Kyiv to devolve authority. That would have given Moscow a good deal of say in the governance of Russian speakers in Donbas. But it would have left the rest of Ukraine unconstrained.
Putin wants it all
For Putin, Ukraine is not about territory. He will accept a ceasefire. But he will not respect a serious solution that leaves even part of Ukraine as a sovereign state. That would mean Kyiv can make its own choices, like joining NATO, or developing nuclear weapons. Russia wouldn’t like that.
I still have some hope that Europe will step into the gap the US is leaving. The Europeans have more at risk. They have also paid more to date:
If Europe comes up with the $700 billion rumored, that would give Ukraine the means to outlast Putin. It would also give Europe the clout to counterbalance the US. Those are two desirable outcomes, under current circumstances.
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Ukraine doesn’t like Trump’s surrender
Ukrainian President Zelensky is understandably an unhappy man. President Trump organized a meeting to discuss Ukraine behind his back. Trump also conceded most of what the Russians were seeking in advance. Besides the continued Russian occupation of 20% of Ukraine, Trump is prepared to meet other Russian demands. They include no NATO membership for Ukraine, no US forces in Ukraine, and sanctions relief for Russia. It is rumored Trump has also agreed to withdrawal of US forces from other Russian neighbors.
Why?
The US interests the Administration has cited are economic and geopolitical. That is bogus. Russia’s economy at this point is smaller than Spain’s. Alienating Europe, a wealthy market of over 500 million people (EU+UK), to curry economic favor with Russia is absurd. Its population is less than 145 million and its GDP smaller than California’s or Texas’. Russia’s giant Eurasian land mass is of little interest to the US. America has greater oil and gas reserves and produces much more of both. We bought the most important part Russian territory in 1867. It is now called Alaska.
Besides, Russia is now firmly aligned, as a vassal state, with China. Putin couldn’t get out of that relationship if he wanted to. But he doesn’t want to.
One reason for Trump’s capitulation was seated at the negotiating table. Dmitry Rybolovlev, one of Putin’s favorite billionaires, bought a house in Palm Beach from Trump in 2008 for $95 million. Trump had paid less than $42 million for it four years earlier. Even in Palm Beach, that’s wild. Dmitry must have had very good reasons making his money disappear. Trump collaborated in the laundering. If this were a mafia movie, you would know what having him sit in the negotiations yesterday means.
US interests
This is not even appeasement. It is capitulation. There is no reason for Ukraine or the US to give in at this point. Russia has been making very slow progress in attacking Ukraine at very high cost. The war has eliminated Russia as a peer military competitor to the US, if it ever was one. That alone is worth the aid we’ve given Kyiv.
Ukraine is also bleeding, but that is Zelensky’s problem, not Trump’s. Zelensky wants a decent negotiated solution, not the capitulation Trump is offering. Yesterday Turkiye President Erdogan backed Ukraine’s “indisputable” sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Fortunately, the Europeans are said to be assembling a 700 billion euro package for Ukraine. That far exceeds all US assistance to Ukraine, which totals $183 billion. It is a good thing for the US. If Trump’s supporters want to claim credit for getting the Europeans to do it, I’ll gladly applaud with one hand. But the Europeans need to move as quickly as possible after the German election this weekend. Derailing a bad settlement is vital.
Perfidy unlimited
Trump has also tried to shake down Ukraine for $500 billion in mineral deposits, or maybe more. Zelensky has made it clear that deal isn’t going anywhere. He is correct to do so. If anyone should pay for the US aid to Ukraine, it is Russia, which invaded. Asking the victim to pay is a new level of perfidy for Trump, though consistent with past behavior.
The United States should be offering the full support that Erdogan is voicing. Instead, a president who is dismantling the US government is doing the same to its alliances and interests abroad. These will be days that live in infamy.
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Part 1: Is this what you voted for?
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, writes:
Dear Fellow Americans,
It is time to wake up from your slumber and face the truth. Our nation is in peril. Trump’s selection of Hegseth as SecDef and Gabbard as DNI, as well as VP Vance’s statements in Munich in support of the Alternative für Deutschland neofacists, reflect a dramatic change of direction. The President is conceding to Putin’s expansionism and betraying basic American principles. The credibility, rules-based order, national sovereignty, and freedom that have brought prosperity for the past 80 years are at risk.
Putin’s savior
Trump has thrown President Putin a lifeline. The Russian economy and military are exhausted. Ukraine would have prevailed, but Trump blinked. He is the 21st century version of Neville Chamberlain, who surrendered the Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland to Hitler.
Likewise, Trump is yielding the national security of Ukraine and its citizens to Russia. Secretary of State Rubio will meet Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a deal. This will be done without consulting Ukraine or the European Union. It will weaken NATO, which stands on the front line with Russia. That makes the US much more vulnerable.
The broader implications
Trump is signaling both Putin and President Xi. They now understand that they can do as they want, even if it means giving up Europe and Taiwan. Trump is also adding fuel to the fire in the Middle East. His pandering to Prime Minister Netanyahu will fuel Arab hatred of the US and inspire ISIS attacks on the US.
There are ongoing discussions of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. We can expect a catastrophic response. Trump is creating the conditions for igniting WWIII, or complete Western capitulation. We can only pray that a new Churchill or Roosevelt will sound the clarion call to reason and freedom.
Gutting American security and economy
To further undercut US security, Trump has gutted USAID and its soft power diplomacy. He and Musk are purging the FBI, CIA and the national intelligence community, as well as our world class military. He will install compliant loyalists. This is akin to Stalin’s purge of the military in the 1930s, which weakened the Soviet defense against Hitler’s army. Perhaps Trump thinks he can make a deal with Putin as Stalin did with Hitler in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. That effort to buy peace between the two totalitarian nations led to catastrophe for both.
Not content with undermining our national standing and security, Trump is also undermining the economy. Tariffs, mass deportations, budget cuts, and gutting of the regulatory and oversight bodies will kill the Biden expansion. The Trump-Musk team fired 300 National Nuclear Security Administration employees and had to hire them back. It has fired 350 EPA and 1000 Veteran Affairs staff, as well as threatening to fire 90,000 IRS staff. How will that help to collect the millions of dollars needed to address the national debt?
Farmers will be particularly hard hit with the loss of markets that will never return. Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and some Asian nations will seek other trading partners. The EU, Russia, and China will benefit. US exports of oil, gas, steel, autos, and agricultural products will be replaced by less mercurial sources.
The budget
Will the average citizen be more financially secure with the MAGA Project 2025 budget proposals? It promises 4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and austerity for the rest of us. To partly compensate, $2 trillion in budget cuts are anticipated. These include Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Affairs, supplementary nutrition and aid to 40 million low income families.
The result will be more interest to be paid on the national debt, something traditional Republicans decry. Also a weaker dollar, weaker purchasing power, and much higher inflation. Republican President Lincoln warned:
It is the same old serpent that says work and I will eat. You toil and I will enjoy the fruits thereof.
The rule of law
Trump’s vindictive attacks against our system of jurisprudence and rule of law will further undermine US security. He released the convicted January 6 insurrectionists into society. What example does that set for law enforcement?
Are we now ruled by a mafia oligarchy like Russia? Trump has unleashed an unelected and uncleared citizen, Elon Musk, to access private data in the name of efficiency. This is in exchange for his $225 million donation to the Trump campaign and free unlimited X endorsements. The Trump Administration also tried to award Tesla a $400 million contract for its armored Cybertruck. Only publicity undid the deal. The Age of the Robber Baron is back!
Minorities and opposition
Trump’s people attack minorities, immigrants, non binary peoples, females, free choice, and books not sanctioned by them. Anything other than what their orthodoxy declares legitimate is fair game. Anyone different becomes a target for hatred and vitriol. It is the same scenario that Hitler used against communists, socialists, Jews and non whites. Divide and Rule! Us Against Them! The Soviets, Khmer Rouge and ethnonationalists in Yugoslavia all used these tactics. I personally witnessed it in Cambodia and Yugoslavia.
Hungarian PM Orban, Turkish PM Erdogan, Slovak PM Fico, the German AfD party, and Putin are all in with Trump! They suppress the media and fee speech. They call any opposition the “enemy of the people.” The White House even denied access to the Associated Press because it refused to rename the Gulf of Mexico.
Education and religion
Trump is trying to re-educate and dumb down the public by abolishing the Education Department. His followers are instituting their own curriculum, banning books, and endorsing the Bible in public schools. This violates the First Amendment provision of separation of church and state. The new Secretary of Health and Human Services, RFK Jr., symbolizes the current anti-science trend.
Are these people Christians as exemplified in the New Testament? Where is their compassion, love of fellow man or even sense of humor?
Questions we need to answer
What can explain Trump/MAGA actions that weaken the US and our allies? Why are they empowering Russia, China and other authoritarians? Have we become so ill educated that we elect inept clowns to entertain us? Where are the competent leaders to set the example of pride, dignity, courage, real strength, and placing country before self?
A small time bully and wanna be mafioso who bends to Al Capone-Putin is leading us to destruction. Are we Rome under Caligula or Nero, awaiting the fall of the Empire? What dirt does Putin have on Trump? Or is he and his ilk fascist at heart? Do they support the German AfD, Orban, and Putin to bring on chaos from which they will profit?
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