Category: Daniel Serwer
Proving the opposite of what he intends
President Dodik is trying to assert de facto independence of Republika Srpska (RS). That is the 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina he controls. He is doing this to escape arrest and removal from office after his conviction by a Bosnian court last month. Dodik was found guilty of defying both the Bosnian Constitutional Court and decisions of the international community’s High Representative. He compounded that violation Friday with new laws. They nullify the powers of the country’s judiciary, police, and intelligence services in Republika Srpska.
So far so good
NATO, the EU, and the Americans have reacted appropriately. NATO Secretary General Rutte is in Sarajevo today reasserting the Alliance commitment to the Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Europeans are sending 400 more peacekeepers, bringing the total to 1100. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tweeted:
The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.
All this is good.
More needs doing
But more could easily be done. I would like the peacekeepers to go to Brcko. It is the northeastern Bosnian town that was the center of gravity of the 1990s war. It will be the center of gravity of any new conflict as well. Without it, the RS cannot secede.
I also hope the NATO troops can, once the Constitutional Court nullifies his new laws, provide support to arrest Dodik. It would be a mistake to allow him to escape accountability. If he flees to Moscow or Hungary, that would be second best.
Dodik’s support
The Russians are supporting Dodik, as is Hungary’s russophile Prime Minister Orban. Moscow finances Dodik and objects to High Representative decisions. It sees RS as akin to the Russian-occupied oblasts of Ukraine. Orban has reportedly sent special forces to extract Dodik from RS if need be.
Serbian President Vucic has met with Dodik and provided rhetorical support, but he won’t want to RS independence. That would put him in a difficult position. The EU would want him not to recognize. His own electorate would want him not only to recognize but then also to annex the RS. If he does, Dodik will become a rival in Belgrade.
It is unclear how much support Dodik has within Bosnia. Even in RS, many people think he is going too far to protect himself, not its majority Serb population. His opposition will not enthusiastically welcome his arrest, but they won’t complain too much. He has dominated RS politics for almost two decades. Is “dovoljno” the right word?
The future of the RS
Dodik’s defiance is making it clear Bosnia can’t progress if RS continues to defy its courts, laws, and police. The ultimate solution lies in constitutional reform, which is difficult. In the meanwhile, progress on security, human rights, and political reform is possible. The right direction for the country as a whole is more individual rights and less group rights. That is what the European Court of Human Rights has ordered. Group rights to identify candidates as well as veto legislative and executive action empower ethnic nationalist politicians like Dodik. They make serious preparation for European Union membership impossible.
Dodik is, ironically, proving the opposite of what he intends. He is trying to show that the RS should be unconstrained by law and order. What he is really showing is that an unconstrained RS is a barrier to Bosnia’s functionality and EU future. It is time Dodik pays the price of his own criminal acts.
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All that glitters is not gold
President Trump is promising a golden era. Let’s have a look.
What’s he doing now?
Tariffs, immigration restrictions, refusal to help democracies in Europe: this reminds me of the 1930s. So too does withdrawal from international institutions and stock market jitters. We know how that ended. Will it be better this time?
The campaign against woke as well as diversity, equity, inclusion is racial and gender prejudice incognito. Racism without the white sheet and pointy hat.
Firing of government workers and canceling of government grants and contracts is how both Trump and Elon Musk conduct business. These are the people you never want to do business with. They don’t keep commitments. They lie about accomplishments. The savings are going to be minimal. Firing all government employees would save 4% of the Federal budget. Firing IRS agents is going to increase the deficit.
The dismantling of USAID is already killing non-Americans who suffer from HIV, malaria, and other diseases. It is also hurting American agriculture and the American contractors who implement most of the work done abroad. At less than .5% of the budget, the savings are minimal. Once the court cases clear, I doubt there will be any savings at all.
What’s he aiming for?
Trump isn’t hiding his goals. He wants to extend a tax cut from his first term that will cost the US government $4.5 trillion. We know what that did the first time around: it was expensive and skewed to the rich. It did not deliver promised benefits. There is no way to compensate for the full $4.5 trillion, but the Republican House proposal is to take $880 million from Medicaid, depriving one-fifth of Americans of health insurance:
Trump will claim the savings come from waste, fraud, and mismanagement (WFM), but that is flim flam. There isn’t anywhere near enough WFM.
Trump has already suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while asking nothing of Russia. Moscow continues its bombardment of civilians and its push for more territory. Trump’s goal is to get Ukraine to agree to give up land in exchange for Russian security guarantees. Putin has repeatedly proved those worthless. Trump expects the Europeans to provide peacekeepers, but that is entirely dependent on US backup through NATO’s Article 5. Trump is saying he won’t commit to that. The push to end the war in Ukraine is again flim flam. Dangerous flim flam as it is encouraging Putin to do whatever he feels like doing.
In the Middle East, Trump is still bragging on Gaza-lago, his scheme for rebuilding Gaza into a Mediterranean resort. No one things that is happening. If he were successful at moving the Palestinians out, it would make Americans targets of terrorism worldwide.
Dross is what you get
I underestimated Trump. To me, he is an obvious fraud. But he fools a lot of Americans. They think Musk is doing something that will balance the budget. They believe Trump will somehow make peace in Ukraine. His supporters don’t care that his Gaza ideas are bogus. It’s not just that all that glitters is not gold. It’s that anything Trump touches turns to dross.
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Dark times, but the worst is yet to come
@blisterpearl tweeted:
The Trump Administration is moving to cut off military supplies to Ukraine. Europe is trying to step up its game. But it can’t substitute all of the American weapons and intelligence on which Ukraine relies. Secretary of Defense Hegseth has ordered a halt to offensive cyber operations against Russia. Moscow is still conducting cyber operations against the US.
Tariffs go into effect on Canada, Mexico, and China today. They are 25% for Canada and Mexico, and an added 10% for China. Americans consumers will pay them. The stock market knew what to think: it dropped 2% yesterday and is no doubt headed down further.
Elon Musk continues to weaken the US Government, including agencies that regulate his businesses. The courts continue to issue orders to stop his blockage of government funds, but the Administration is mostly ignoring those. Trump hopes “his” Supreme Court will back his authority to make the cuts.
The US Congress remains in Republican hands. Tonight their half will stand and applaud wildly during the State of the Union. Trump meanwhile is denuding the Congress of its most important responsibility: the power of the purse. He is not expending appropriated funds.
No cure in Congress before November 2026
The American people don’t support this. Many managed to forget the disasters of Trump’s first term and too many didn’t turn out for last November’s election. But most now think Trump is doing too much too quickly. That is what Presidents try to do early in their term, knowing that resistance will build later.
The first available cure is in by elections. Two will be held April 1 to replace members of Congress appointed to the Trump Administration. They are both in deep red districts in Florida. It would be a minor miracle if the Democrats were to win one, never mind both. Another will be in upstate New York at a date still to be decided. It, too, is a Republican safe seat, more or less. If I’ve got this right, even winning all three would not flip the House. Marco Rubio’s Florida Senate seat will be up for grabs only in November 2026.
So essentially we’ve got a Republican majority in both houses until then. The damage Trump will have done is enormous. But it will be much worse if the Congress remains in Republican hands thereafter.
Can the popular will change Trump’s course before the next election?
Polls won’t deter Trump, who can’t run again anyway. I’d like to see the Democrats walk out on the State of the Union address tomorrow night. Or maybe not show up at all. Or hold up photos of Ukrainian President Zelensky as soon as Trump mentions Ukraine.
I wonder whether dramatic manifestations of popular opposition can do what is needed. A statement from the ex-presidents would help. So too would a national day of protest, say on May 25, the day before Memorial Day. Each major city should organize its own demonstration, with a monster one in DC.
Some Republican defections would help. Republican Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, has criticized what Trump is doing on Ukraine. But she failed to mention his name. If she were to caucus with the Democrats, even as an independent, it would make a big difference. Better yet if she brings a friend or two. So far though, we’ve seen little indication of courage on her side of the aisle.
The worst is yet to come
We live in dark times. But the worst is yet to come.
The budget ax will fall on Medicaid this year, which provides health insurance to twenty per cent of Americans. Trump will need to increase agricultural subsidies to compensate for the retaliation his tariffs will generate. Tariffs and the roundup of immigrants will raise prices, which are already headed in the wrong direction. Trump’s first-term tax cuts for the rich, which he wants extended, will boost the deficit.
If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, Moldova will be next. And after that the Baltics. The dominoes will fall, unless Europe finds the wherewithal to back a Ukrainian victory.
But the biggest threat looming is the Supreme Court. If it upholds Trump’s egregious behavior in eviscerating the US government, American democracy is doomed. Already the Washington Post and other media outlets are bending to Trump’s will. With the Supreme Court backing him, no opposition will stand a chance.
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America needs to right itself
Unlike her compatriots on MSNBC, Rachel does real digging and finds things others haven’t reported on. This segment on the realignment with Russia was a fine example.
Why Russia?
Still, why is Trump abandoning Europe in favor of a country with an economy smaller than Canada’s? Russia has a few things going for it. It is the largest country on earth. Its giant land mass has good odds of containing lots of minerals as well as oil and gas. It borders both Europe and China, making it strategically vital to both.
Russia has also proven capable of upending order in Europe and in the US. In Europe it has used cyber attacks, disinformation, covert action against infrastructure, corruption, and military aggression. In the US it uses all but the last of these. The purpose is to show democracy as dysfunctional. It works, as we saw in the UK withdrawal from Brexit and in the rise of the neo-Nazis in Germany.
Why Trump?
Trump has been laundering Russian assets through real estate deals for decades. One of his buyers was present for the US/Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia last month. He has also sought to invest in Moscow. Trump boasts about his close relationship with Russian President Putin. He is not hiding it. He openly sought Russian assistance during his first presidential campaign.
Friday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky went well until minute 40. Then it went awry because Vance realized Moscow would not be pleased. Trump piled on. His alignment with Russia might not have survived a successful signing of the minerals agreement. Even though that is nothing more than an agreement to negotiate.
US interests
Americans are not with Trump on Russia. They don’t trust Putin. Opinion on support for Ukraine is more divided. But most Trump supporters back Ukraine. There really is no question about who started the war. The question is whether Russia or Ukraine will emerge the winner either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
The alliance with Europe kept the peace during the Cold War and thereafter. The Alliance triggered its mutual defense obligation only once, in response to the 9/11 attack on the US. Anyone who endangers NATO is not acting in the interest of the United States. Trump has endangered it repeatedly. He has also neglected to recognize that Europe is doing more for its own defense, as he himself has urged.
We’ve elected a president who serves Russia’s interests better than he serves American interests. He is also dismantling the US government Those are serious problems. Fixing them will be hard. We need what used to be termed an “intervention.” Here is one idea: get the ex-presidents to intervene.
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Americans deserve better but may not get it
Trump and Zelensky were doing fine yesterday:
Zelensky had several times challenged Trump. Europeans, Zelensky said, had provided more aid than the US and it did not have to be paid back. He noted Putin’s record of violating agreements, as well as his torture of prisoners and theft of Ukrainian children. Trump was taking it, even though it made him visiblyu uncomfortable.
The culprit was Vance
Things went south about 39:50, when JD Vance chimed in about the virtues of diplomacy rather than force. Zelensky responded “what kind of diplomacy?” But things only went off the rails when Vance then called Zelensky disrespectful. He had not been disrespectful, though he was clearly annoyed that the VP was chiming in. It was Vance who was being disrespectful.
Quarreling at that point was unwise. Zelensky should have said “we’ll have to disagree about the prospects for successful diplomacy.” Or “I agree about diplomacy, but it has to be backed by strength.” Or “diplomacy with security guarantees makes sense to me.” But give the man a break: he was exhausted and tired of these Russian dupes.
Why did Vance do it?
There are several possible explanations for why Vance made the false claim that Zelensky was disrespectful:
- They had met privately in advance of this public session. I had the sense there was already bad blood between them. Maybe it just flowed out.
- Trump and Vance may have agreed that the President would play good cop while the VP played bad cop.
- Vance may have decided the meeting was going too well and that his minders in Moscow would not be pleased.
- Trump and Vance may have (rightly) decided the agreement Zelensky was about to sign was a nothing burger.
Whatever the cause, it was, as Tom Nichols put it in The Atlantic, an ambush. Zelensky was not at fault.
Humpty dumpty
The question now is whether Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again. I doubt it. It was not just this meeting that went badly. Trump’s entire initiative for peace in Ukraine is cockeyed. He is trying to wean Russia from China and make Moscow a friend of the US. That isn’t going to happen. Putin knows his country is nothing without Chinese backing. He certainly won’t trade it for the uncertainties of US support.
But there is no telling with Trump. He is a bad negotiator. He concedes things up front that he needn’t concede. Trump holds back on things that need to be clear up front. He reverses himself even on issues he has said are vital. The European backing for Zelensky should make an honest US president wonder if he has got this right. But of course Trump despises the Euros. And he isn’t honest
America will shrink
That leaves us with a giant split in the NATO Alliance. Trump is aligned with Russia. The Europeans align with Ukraine. But will the Euros get their act together to fill in for the US aid Trump will cancel? If they don’t Putin will win this war. Then after a few years of rearmament he will start a new one in Moldova, then Poland or the Baltics.
America will have shrunk to a Western Hemisphere power pining after Panama and Greenland. And complaining to Mexico and Canada about the drugs Americans are abusing. Washington will be unable and unwilling to defend its allies in either Europe or Asia. Our economy will be noncompetitive due to tariff protection. The society will return to its tradition of white robber baron supremacy. Americans deserve better but may not get it.
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The agreement they didn’t sign
I wrote most of this piece before today’s meeting. The analysis of the agreement is I think correct, even if OBE.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal were supposed to sign today has one great virtue. There are no obvious no-no’s, like limits on its territorial extent or obligations Ukraine will find onerous. It really doesn’t constitute what President Trump said he wanted, which was payback for US assistance. It does make Ukraine devote half its future natural resource revenue to the joint fund the agreement promises. But that is no loss since the fund is devoted exclusively to investments in Ukraine.
But if there are no glaring errors, it still doesn’t constitute a “devastating blow” to Putin. The devil is in the details, which haven’t been negotiated yet. Does this agreement apply to all of Ukraine’s sovereign territory as of 2014, before the first Russian intervention? Can the US turn around and negotiate a similar agreement with Russia that applies to territory Moscow now controls? It just isn’t clear.
This is essentially an agreement to negotiate an agreement. No harm yet in that.
No security guarantees
The big omission from Ukraine’s perspective is the lack of security guarantees. The agreement says this:
The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.
That is a backhanded way of saying the US won’t give guarantees but will support Ukraine’s effort to get them. The implied source is Europe, including the United Kingdom and Turkey as well as the European Union. No one else is available. The Europeans should bear this burden. Russian guarantees aren’t worth the paper they are written on.
The problem is that the US saying that the US will not guarantee the guarantors. That is, if NATO European member states guarantee Ukraine’s security, NATO’s Article 5 will not apply to their forces. If the Europeans get into trouble, for example with the Russians, the US will not help them out.
That is important. The obligation to protect European forces in Bosnia led to the Dayton peace agreement. Dick Holbrooke convinced President Clinton it would be better to deploy Americans to end the war rather than conduct an evacuation of the Europeans.
Production isn’t going to be easy or quick
Ukraine is a big country and may have lots of resources of interest to the US.
Here are the more “critical” deposits, rare earths and others (the pinkish area in the southeast is Russian-occupied territory):
But none of this is going to be easy or quick to exploit. Yesterday’s NPR interview on the subject suggested it will 18 years from the required up-to-date mapping to mineral production from a mine:
That would be 18 years in peacetime, or in a peaceful area of the country. I’m not holding my breath.
So why did it blow up?
Signing this agreement, which is no more than an agreement to negotiate, would have been much better than a pissing match. But Vance and Trump seem to me determined to sandbag Zelensky, who wasn’t humble enough for their tastes:
Zelensky should not have taken the bait. Who knows what comes next!
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