Category: Daniel Serwer
Four more bad reasons to vote Trump
I somehow managed yesterday in citing ten reasons to vote for Trump to skip an obvious one: immigration. It merited mention, not least because it a very bad reason to be voting for Trump.
We need the labor
The United States needs more immigrants, not fewer. The tight labor market is driving up wages and productivity. That is welcome after many years that they lagged the increase in returns to capital. Incomes have been rising faster than prices since the epidemic. But there are limits. The US fertility rate (average number of children per woman over a lifetime) is down to 1.6. This is insufficient to sustain a stable population size. The resulting aging of the population increases the demands on Social Security and Medicare while decreasing their revenue streams.
Immigration can help to alleviate these problems. Immigrants to the US are younger on average and have more children than people born in the US. They help to pay the bills of those reaching retirement age, also relieving labor market pressure.
We need the entrepreneurs and executives
Immigrants are also disproportionately entrepreneurs. They do not on the whole take jobs from native-born Americans but create jobs for everyone:
…immigrants act more as “job creators” than “job takers” and play outsized roles in US high-growth entrepreneurship.
This is important, as US economic growth depends heavily on new, small companies. And small companies grow. Immigrants founded nearly 45% of the Fortune 500.
It is of course also true that immigrants play important roles in managing major corporations. The tech sector is rife with immigrant executives. Eighty per cent of privately held billion dollar companies have immigrants in a senior role. The American economy today depends on immigrant managers.
Getting rid of them isn’t possible
The Obama and Biden Administrations focused deportation on people who posed security risks. The Trump Administration did not have clear priorities. Biden has removed (often by expulsion rather than deportation) many more immigrants than Trump did.
That doesn’t mean Trump isn’t going to try to do what he said he would do. He has pledged to round up and expel millions. Trump’s effort would cost many billions and involve hiring ten thousand new immigration officials.
Even beginning that process will unleash chaos in the American economy, further tighten the labor market. It will also discourage immigration that we need for the purposes cited above. Trump’s election will slam down an economy that is landing softly.
There is a bipartisan solution already drafted that Trump won’t support
Republicans and Democrats have already agreed to a bipartisan immigration bill. Trump blocked its approval in the Congress. But the new Congress can revive the plan and pass it. Harris has pledged to sign it.
If elected, Trump will need to insist on something “better.” He is unlikely to get it if the Democrats control one of the Houses. Only Harris guarantees that immigration will be dealt with quickly on a bipartisan basis in the new Congress.
I could go on. World population growth is also slowing markedly. There soon won’t be as many people wanting to immigrate anywhere than there once were. Trump’s anti-immigrant efforts will encourage people to go elsewhere. That will not be good for a country that depends heavily on immigrant labor, entrepreneurs, and executives. We’d be well-advised to forget Trump’s grandiose plans and grab the bipartisan solution.
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Ten reasons to vote for Trump, nine refuted
Meidas+ has saved me the trouble. It lists 200 reasons not to vote for Donald Trump. I suppose it wouldn’t be all that hard to get to 300. It is hard for me to understand why any patriotic American–or even a non-patriotic one–would vote him.
Ten reasons to vote for Trump
So let’s consider the options:
- You are a diehard Republican who has never voted for a Democrat.
- Trump will be better for the economy than Harris.
- Trump will keep the US out of war.
- You want the Federal government cut back.
- You want abortion restricted.
- LGBTQ and trans people are not your thing. Or you don’t want your children learning about such things in school.
- You don’t like what the Israelis are doing in Gaza and Lebanon.
- The US should stop supporting Ukraine and start getting friendly with Putin.
- The US should stand up to China.
- You don’t want a Black, Asian woman as President.
Even diehards are voting for Harris
Harris can’t please diehard Republicans on the policy issues, but they are voting for her anyway. Liz Cheney and her father are not alone. Many Republicans see that Trump is not planning to sustain American democracy but to dismantle it. His former White House chief of staff and his Chair of the Joint Chiefs have both labeled him an autocrat. Actually, they said “fascist.” You don’t have to be a never Trumper to vote against someone who does not accept election results unless he wins.
Pulling the Democratic lever is not all that hard. I pull Republican levers whenever I am unhappy with the Democratic candidate. You can do the right thing too.
It’s the economy, stupid
It is, and America’s economy is bigger and better than ever. The Economist calls it “the envy of the world.” Growth has recovered faster from the epidemic downturn than other developed economies. Manufacturing is up sharply. The Biden Administration has presided over the creation of a record number of jobs. The stock market has continued its rise.
The spoiler is inflation, which peaked in the first two years of the Biden Administration. Since then, it has been declining. It is now approaching the Fed’s 2% goal. No one is happy paying more for food and housing, but wages have more than kept up with inflation. Most people, on average, are not worse off.
Trump’s proposed tariffs will resuscitate inflation and tank growth. They do not need Congressional approval. Affected industries will challenge them in court, but in the meanwhile they will be collected. American consumers will pay for them. Other countries will retaliate. The tariffs spell disaster for the American and world economies.
War no more?
The Trump campaign claims to have suffered no terrorist attacks and kept the US out of war 2016/20. But that isn’t true. Trump ordered strikes in Syria and Iraq, killed Iran’s Qassem Suleimani, and presided during several terrorist attacks inside the US. He also rightly provided lethal assistance to Ukraine that the Obama Administration had denied.
Trump negotiated the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan but left too few soldiers to cover the evacuation of Afghans. He promised total withdrawal of US troops from Syria, but then he left some there.
Bloated government?
The Federal government grew more under Biden (6%) than under Trump (3.7%). But Trump claims now that he can fire many thousands of Federal employees and increase efficiency. He certainly didn’t prove that in 2016/20. The notion that Elon Musk will help him do it is laughable. Musk eviscerated Twitter and is still losing lots of money. Recovering rocket bodies and improving efficiency are not the same thing.
Trump’s intention is to fire civil servants and replace them with servile Trumpkins who do his will, despite the law. He has made no secret of this. Do you really want decades of experience to be replaced with loyalty to a 79-year-old fascist?
Abortion is the Republicans’ Achilles heel
I am not pro-abortion. I don’t know anyone who is. Nor do you need be if you vote for Harris. But banning abortion, as many Republican states have done, gives government responsibility for a decision that belongs with individual women.
Trump is right that the Supreme Court has sent the issue back to the states. There the Democrats are repeatedly winning the argument whenever it is posed in a referendum. Any Republican who wants to see her/his party in power should be wondering whether the issue is politically toxic.
Dislike of LGBTQ and trans people
You don’t want your kids to learn about these things? Guess what: you won’t be capable of stopping them. There is nothing new under the sun. The Ancient Greeks knew all about non-heterosexual preferences. Sure, you might “protect” your children for a few years. But sooner or later they will know what you know, and maybe more.
Anyway, decisions on what schools teach are mostly made at the local level. Keep it there. Why vote for a candidate who claims kids are getting operated on at school without parental consent? Is that the untruth you want your children learning?
Gaza and Lebanon: blank check for Netanyahu
I don’t like what the Israeli government is doing in Gaza and Lebanon either. This is something on which American Jews, American Arabs, Israeli Jews, Lebanese, and Palestinians all agree. At least two-thirds of all these groups want a ceasefire and exchange of hostages/prisoners in Gaza. That would bring with it a ceasefire on the Israel/Lebanon border.
Things will get much worse in the Middle East if Trump is elected. He gave the Israelis everything they asked for when he was President. He’ll do it again if re-elected. I’m not sure what Harris will do, but it won’t be a blank check.
Ukraine won’t be the end of it
Trump has made it clear he will give Putin whatever he wants in Ukraine. That, he thinks, will end the war. If that is what you want, please do vote Republican.
But it won’t end the war. Putin will go after whatever part of Ukraine he doesn’t get, and then Moldova. Poland and the Baltic states will be at risk. He won’t stop until he is stopped. Trump won’t do it. Harris will.
Xi cleaned Trump’s clock
The same is true for China. Trump doesn’t want to defend American allies in Asia. That’s why he has suggested Japan and South Korea get their own nuclear weapons. Why not Taiwan and Philippines as well? Do you really think the world would be better off with another four nuclear powers? America would be safer?
As for trade, Trump negotiated an agreement with China. Beijing did not implement it. The result has been massive agricultural subsidies to American farmers, to compensate them for lost markets due to Chinese retaliation. The Trump tariffs will bring more retaliation and more subsidies to injured industries.
You don’t want a Black, Asian, woman as President
I’m not going to quarrel with this one. If you don’t want a smart, well-educated Black and Asian woman as President, vote for the crude grifter and felon. You are the company you keep.
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It will end when Israel wants it to
Israel continues to enjoy military successes in both Gaza and Lebanon, but its adversaries fight on. The death of Yahya Sinwar leaves Hamas without clear leadership. The death of Hassan Nasallah likewise left Hezbollah without clear leadership. But both Islamist movements continue to attack. Their cadres seek “martyrdom.”
The options
Americans, official and unofficial, are urging Israel to take the win and embark on the day after. Israel has done enormous damage to both Hamas and Hezbollah. The Israel Defense Force has decimated, but not eliminated, their underground facilities, drones, rockets, and missiles, leadership, and personnel. Ending the fighting in Gaza as well as Lebanon would open the possibility of a prisoner/hostage swap in Gaza. It would also put pressure on the UN Security Council to move Hezbollah north of the Litani River. UNSC resolution 1701 requires that. It is the declared Israel war objective in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t buying. He wants to go after Iran, which is a state sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli retaliation for Iran’s massive military attack on October 1, which did little damage, is still pending. His Defense Minister has promised it will be “lethal” and “surprising.” But it has also been delayed. The Americans want the Israelis not to target Iran’s nuclear program or its oil production facilities. The former will trigger an Iranian decision to develop nuclear weapons. The latter would bump up world oil prices.
The politics
The wars in Gaza and Lebanon are not going to end before November 5. That would give Kamala Harris a big boost at the polls. Netanyahu doesn’t want that. He wants Donald Trump back in the White House. President Biden is threatening to withhold military assistance to Israel unless humanitarian assistance starts flowing again to Gaza. Trump would not do that. Judging from past experience, he would not seek to restrain Israel at all.
No matter whom the US elects, Netanyahu has his own political calculus. His only hope for remaining in power is a military victory so overwhelming Israelis will forget his faults. They include his personal malfeasance and his government’s failure on October 7. A dramatic blow to Iran would do the trick.
The civilians
In the meanwhile, civilians are suffering the brunt of war. The situation in Gaza is unprecedented. Virtually its entire population is displaced. Most of its housing stock, its educational and health systems, as well as its economy are destroyed. People are desperate. Some are starving. There is ample evidence the Israeli army has targeted civilians and children.
In Lebanon, the destruction is less extensive so far, but Netanyahu has threatened to make it like Gaza. The Israelis have obliterated some border communities. They have also hit Beirut, including areas that are not Hezbollah strongholds. Many Lebanese are displaced. Several thousand are dead.
How does this end?
Most Israelis want a ceasefire and prisoner/hostage exchange. Most American Jews and Arabs have wanted that too. But Netanyahu wants to continue to fight Hamas and Hezbollah. He would also like to hit Iran hard. President Biden will to try to restrain him. A President Harris would do likewise. Trump would not.
Netanyahu has repeatedly demonstrated that he does what he wants. The Middle East wars won’t end until the Israeli government wants them to. That isn’t going to happen while Netanyahu is in office.
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Calm in the eye of the storm
I’m in Atlanta, poll-watching for the Georgia Democratic Party. I’ve done it in Egypt, Libya, Albania, and elsewhere, but never before in the US. We own a house in Atlanta down the street from elder son Jared and his family. But no, we are not moving here. We are only trying to view the election from a more interesting angle than DC. There more than 90% of the population will vote Harris.
Roving
I am an “outside” poll watcher for Fulton County (Atlanta) early voting. The county is deep blue, not red. “Inside” poll watchers need to be credentialed for a specific polling place and can do it only there. That means six or seven hours per day for two weeks inside the same place. I don’t envy them. Credentials are not needed for outside poll watchers, who don’t enter the polling place except to visit the toilets.
I’m being used as what the State Department would call a “rover.” I go wherever the county Voter Protection chief, Melissa, sends me. That is mostly to places where the Democrats lack coverage. Fulton County is big–I’ve had to drive as much as 25 miles from my house. Traffic is horrendous, but patience and Googlemaps get me there in my 18-year-old Honda Fit.
What I do
My task is to look for issues and incidents. I do this mainly by approaching voters as they leave the polling place to ask how things went. Did they need to wait in line? For how long? Were things running smoothly?
So far, the answers have all been cheery and positive. People here are really happy after voting. Only one of the six polling places I’ve visited had a line. That one was less than a half hour wait. That line was gone an hour later. Everywhere else, people have been voting in less than five minutes or so.
Near some polling places, police sit discreetly in patrol cars, away from the main entrance. None of those I encountered had seen any problems. The few election workers I’ve run into likewise report no difficulties. I haven’t even had a complaint about a misspelled name or one missing from the voter roll. Georgia allows open carry of long guns. I haven’t seen any.
I also haven’t run into any Republican poll watchers. Maybe some are inside the polling places I’ve visited. It would be interesting to hear their impressions.
Value added
I report my lack of incidents and issues dutifully on an app as well as by text to Melissa. She reminds me that a good day in voter protection is a boring one. My value added is providing notice that things are okay at and near polling places where her coverage is spotty.
I’ll continue my roving for the next two weeks or so. I don’t imagine it will all be as uneventful as the last two days. But there is no way of knowing. The press is reporting record early voting turnout so far. That bodes well for the Democrats, who have encouraged people to vote early. But of course I have no idea how the people I talk to vote. And no real sense of how the rest of Georgia will tilt.
I’m in the eye of the storm. It’s calm here, until it’s not.
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A true conservative would vote Harris
I don’t have a lot of Republican friends. That’s true. But for those Republicans I know identity is the reason for their attachment to that party. One was born into a family in Arizona in which no one had ever voted for a Democrat. Another, an otherwise first-rate political analyst, simply believes what Republicans say and doubts what Democrats say. He puts the burden of proof on his opponents.
Neither of these colleagues has ever before supported across-the-board tariffs or deportation of immigrants. They both pride themselves on not being racists. Yet they will vote for a candidate who wants to impose broad tariffs and deport millions. Trump is also a confirmed white supremacist and has promised to restrict minorities from moving to the suburbs. Republican identity trumps [pun intended] their policy preferences. It shifts the burden of proof, so here are some proofs.
The domestic issues
To be fair, traditional Republicans are in a difficult spot. The Republican party they knew and loved favored lower taxes and high defense expenditures. It has evaporated. Trump’s Republican party favors lower taxes only for the truly wealthy and abandonment of defense obligations.
Presidents Reagan and George W. Bush welcomed immigrants. Trump blames them for crimes they haven’t committed, as he did for the Central Park five. He wanted them executed, which is what he wants for immigrants who kill “Americans.” The five, all Black, were innocent.
Traditional Republicans do have reason to dislike Kamala Harris’ policy proposals. They fear extra spending for her housing, healthcare, education, and other “social” programs would explode the deficit. But they should be aware that the data is clear. Trump did that, even before the COVID-19 epidemic. Her spending proposals will have to pass in Congress. Trump’s promise of tariffs he can levy without Congressional approval
There is a decades-long history of lower percentage debt increases under Democratic than Republican presidents:
This is at least in part due to Republican control of one or both Houses of Congress. That’s a good reason for a Republican debt hawk to vote for some down-ballot Republicans. But it is not a good reason to vote for Trump.
Foreign policy
On foreign policy, the situation is even clearer. Both Trump and Harris are hawkish on China and protective of Israel. But Trump reached a trade agreement with China that Beijing didn’t implement. He did nothing to respond. The trade agreement also cost the US budget a great deal due to related agricultural subsidies. They continue. Trump would back Israel to the hilt. Harris wants to rein it in, provide humanitarian assistance to Palestinians, and prevent a wider war.
Trump has threatened to abandon allies in Europe and to end support for Ukraine. Harris backs the NATO allies and Kyiv. Most NATO members are now fulfilling their 2024 NATO commitment to spend 2% of GNP on defense. The big jumps came under Biden, after the Russian expansion of the Ukraine invasion. They did not come under Trump. Allied solidarity in supplying Ukraine has helped to counter Russia’s expansionist impulse and reduce the threat to other “frontline” states.
Putin’s Russia is an expansionist, imperial power trying to correct what it regards as history’s mistakes. If Moscow wins in Ukraine, it will try again in Moldova and eventually Poland and other former Soviet satellites. It is not exaggerating to say Ukrainians are dying to prevent Americans and Europeans from fighting.
Trump has encouraged South Korea and Japan to think about getting their own nuclear weapons. That he thinks would reduce US commitments in Asia. It is a truly bad idea, as it would leave Asian security at risk of a nuclear confrontation. The US would not control the outcome.
Trump has signaled he would not help defend Taiwan. China will take advantage of that signal. Biden’s expressed willingness to support Taiwan has arguably forestalled a Chinese effort to take it over.
If you are a true Republican, vote Harris
Half of Trump’s former cabinet secretaries are not supporting his re-election bid. Nor is his Vice President, about whose safety during the January 6 riot Trump was unconcerned. Former Vice President Cheney, a staunch conservative, and his also conservative daughter Liz are voting for Harris. So too is Mark Milley, Trump’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, along with hundreds of other retired generals. Milley regards Trump as “fascist to the core.”
Preventing Trump from doing what he has pledged to do should outweigh any remaining identity issues. A true Republican would vote Harris.
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