Category: Daniel Serwer
Breaking up Bosnia is not the thing to do
Ismet Fatih Čančar is an independent researcher, a former Partnership for Peace Fellow at NATO Defence College, and a former advisor to the Minister of Security of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He writes:
On August 30, The Spectator published an article by Swansea law professor Andrew Tettenborn in which the author exults in the break up of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He believes this is a natural course of events, the inevitable ending of “the pantomime horse democracy.”
He is wrong. The break up of Bosnia is not a safe roadmap to sustainable peace in the Balkans. His argument is consistent with nationalist Serb and Croat actors who claim Bosnia is an aberration with no future, due to its ethnic differences and diversity.
Ignoring the law…
The complexities of the constitutional and political system of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the power-sharing structure under the Dayton Agreement, and the division of the society along ethno-national groups are well-known. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled against this system August 29 in Kovačević vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Court identified a series of systemic, institutional discriminations that need to be amended if Bosnia wants to progress on the Euro-Atlantic path.
Critics oppose implementation of this verdict, stating that any implementation, or even the mere thought of reforming or upgrading the Dayton Agreement, will lead to conflict and Bosnia’s break up. Discarding such a landmark decision is a brazen attempt to undermine the significance of the verdicts of an international court, in this case the highest legal and judicial institution in Europe in charge of implementation and protection of basic human rights.
The opinion of the ECHR in the case of Kovačević vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a lethal blow to the foundations of the discriminatory, ethno-national, backward oriented, immoral social contract embodied in the Dayton Agreement, which deprives a large number of Bosnian citizens of their basic civic rights. This is the greatest strength of the verdict: it directs Bosnia and Herzegovina to reject a system that subordinates individual citizens’ rights to the priorities of the country’s three major ethnic groups.
The argument that Bosnia cannot exist if it is not strictly an ethnic electoral system is a lazy, watered down excuse of anti-Bosnian actors who receive support from Moscow and wish to keep the country trapped in the chains of ethno-national politics. The alternative, a citizen-based civic model for Bosnia and Herzegovina, requires more political will and resources, but it is the best path towards a functional constitutional democracy like those other European citizens enjoy across the continent.
…and the facts
In an attempt to make the idea of Bosnian break up more digestible, domestic actors and international observers often display ignorance towards basic historical facts. Contrary to the statement that Bosnia and Herzegovina is “an entity set up following Bill Clinton’s brokering of the Dayton Accords in 1995,” Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina derives its continuity from the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina accepted into the United Nations three years earlier, in 1992. Before that it was for centuries a stable European state with borders defined by natural geographical features and state structures. It was the Bosnian Kingdom in the Middle Ages, Bosnia during Ottoman rule, a Corpus separatum during the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, and one of six republics within Socialist Yugoslavia. The claim that Bosnia’s diversity has produced animosity of “historical memories” lacks substance. Its civilizational space and international subjectivity are historic constants. Diverse religions and beliefs have coexisted in Bosnia and Herzegovina for centuries in peace and harmony.
The problems come from Serbia and Croatia, not Bosnia
The constant effort to break Bosnia up comes mainly from Serbia and Croatia, which have throughout history sought to annex parts of its territory. The source of the problem in the Balkans is not the allegedly irreconcilable religious, ethnic and national differences among people, but rather the “Greater-state” ambitions of Serbia and Croatia.
A series of judgments of international courts have unequivocally established the fact that the war pillage and destruction in Bosnia and Herzegovina resulted from the political projects of Belgrade and Zagreb to ethnically clean territories. They used both ethnic and religious factors to inflame interethnic hatred, mistrust, and instability, culminating in mass war crimes, ethnic cleansing and genocide.
These ambitions continue to serve as the political focus of Serb and Croat nationalist and secessionist actors, thus slowing nationbuilding in Bosnia. To save peace in the Balkans, the US and EU should raise their voices against the ethnonationalists, who deny genocide and glorify war crimes and their perpetrators.
Bosnia and Ukraine
The main reasons to reject the idea of breaking up Bosnia are not historical, but moral and political. Accepting Bosnia’s breakup would legitimize genocide and ethnic cleansing, posing a dangerous precedent for similar campaigns of killing and persecution. Such a precedent could also serve as a potent initiator of militant ethnocracy on European soil, which can easily consume other hotspots across the continent in pursuit of ethno-national exclusivity. The logic of blood and soil would return Europe to the 1930s.
It would be hypocritical for the democratic world to insist on defending democratic ideals under attack in Ukraine, while permitting the break up of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Ukrainian struggle is also the Bosnian struggle. The secessionist leader of the Bosnian Serbs has openly praised and publicly awarded Putin for the atrocities he has committed against Ukrainians. The recent visit of members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Kiev conveyed the right message. The campaign of Russian “denazification” of Ukraine is a campaign that Bosnia and Herzegovina also went through in its struggle towards freedom and international affirmation.
Principles of justice and legality, inviolability of sovereignty and territorial integrity, respect for human rights, and the promotion of peace and security are of crucial importance for the European continent. They need to be defended in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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Stevenson’s army, October 12
–None for Scalise right now; no full House session set.
[ I agree with Vox article that Congress is becoming too much like a parliament.]
– US said to be working with Egypt to get humanitarian corridor for Gaza.
-NYT says intelligence shows Iran surprised by Hamas attack.
– Administration notes Trump also allowed Iran to tap frozen assets.
– Amy Zegart examines Israeli intelligence failure.
– NYT describes the tactical failures.
– CBO says US military personnel are well paid compared to civilians.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Appeasement is as appeasement does
It is difficult to write about the Balkans when something far more serious is happening in the Middle East, not to mention Ukraine. But Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina still merit some attention. The European Union and the US have de facto reversed their positions and now are favoring de facto ethnic partition of both entities.
Clearer in Kosovo
This is clearer in Kosovo. The EU is insisting that Kosovo reduce its overwhelmingly Albanian police presence in the north, which on September 24 responded professionally and effectively to a terrorist attack. The threat of a repeat performance is clear and present. The EU is explicitly ignoring the attempted insurrection on September 24:
This insistence on ignoring the September 24 terrorist insurrection is difficult to fathom. But it jibes with EU insistence on the immediate formation of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, which Belgrade explicitly proposes be a vehicle for separate governance of Serbs in Kosovo. Hungary and the five member states that have not recognized Kosovo have become the bottom line of Europe’s position on Kosovo: no recognition and ethnic partition.
Same story in Bosnia and Herzegovina
In Bosnia, the situation is almost as bad. The West is supporting governments at both the state and entity levels that are under the control of ethnic separatists. Serb nationlist Milorad Dodik and Croat nationalist Dragan Covic are busy plotting the takeover of the Central Electoral Commission as well as the Constitutional Court. While they generally oppose the authority of the High Represenative, they naturally supported his post-electoral decisions that favored ethnic nationalists.
Dodik and Covic of course oppose implementation of several European Court of Human Rights decisions that would reverse the ethnic nationalist stranglehold on governance in Bosnia. The EU is ignoring those decisions and proceeding as if they don’t exist. The US has done nothing for years to encourage their implementation.
No priority has consequences
Why are the US and EU supporting, or at least not opposing, efforts to ethnically segregate populations in Bosnia and Kosovo? In part, the explanation is lack of horsepower. The Balkans have fallen off the priority list in Washington. It is hard to get any attention for the region. Secretary Blinken is not interested in doing any heavy lifting on Balkan issues while war rages in Ukraine as well as Israel and Gaza.
In Brussels, the main responsible officials come from Spain, Slovakia, and Hungary. Madrid and Bratislava have not recognized Kosovo. Budapest has, but its current leadership is explicitly ethnic nationalist. Prime Minister Orban is besties with Dodik and Serbian President Vucic, who can rely on his support. The EU higher ups are leaving the Balkans to people who have their own interests.
Appeasement is the policy
But there is more to it than that. Key officials in both Washington and Brussels have deluded themselves that they can attract Serbia into the West. President Vucic, they allege, is only concerned with getting a good deal for Serbs in neighboring countries. He is not serious about partitioning Kosovo or Bosnia. Buttering him up is easier and will work better than the alternative, tough love.
Labeling their current approach “appeasement” offends my colleagues at the State Department. But the US has done nothing more than a few talking points in response to Vucic’s sponsorship of the September 24 terrorist insurrection. The EU has done likewise. They are hoping the incident will give them leverage on Vucic in private but all blow over in public.
Of course that is not possible for Kosovo Albanians or for supporters to liberal democracy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the former lack an international backer willing to press the case for serious sanctions against Vucic. The latter lack not only international backing but also political traction in their own country.
The West has abandoned its friends. It is supporting opponents of liberal democracy in both Kosovo and Bosnia. Appeasement is as appeasement does.
#Serbia’s 33 acquis chapters, level of preparedness for membership, as assessed by the European Commission since 2015. https://esiweb.org/publications/scoreboard-true-state-accession-what-commission-assessments-reveal…
That was tweeted in response to this, from the EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement:
Open discussion w/ Serbian Minister of European Integration Tanja Miscevic I encourage #Serbia to continue show its dedication to deliver on outstanding rule of law issues & to ensure implementation of recent laws Our meeting confirms that Reform agenda is a top priority for Serbia.
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Stevenson’s army, October 10 and 11
I was traveling yesterday, so here is a double edition:
October 11:
– WaPo explains what a siege in Gaza looks like and how Hamas breached the wall
– NYT assesses Israel’s failures
– WSJ says Hamas got money through crypto financing
– Atlantic reminds what Hamas believes
-Kenya force to Haiti blocked
– Polish generals resign over politicization
– US may send another carrier toward Israel
– Analyst summarizes US failures in Afghanistan
-Op-ed writer says Space Force needs own lobbyist on Hill
October 10:
– At the Atlantic Andrew Exum questions the quality of the IDF conscript soldiers.
– NSC calls for Israel to make “proportionate” response.
– Politico sees a “high tech failure”
– US now calls Niger coup a coup
– DOD seems to run the best schools in US
– Susan Glasser examines Jake Sullivan’s actions on Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 9
Of the many commentaries about the conflict, these so far stood out to me:
Tom Friedman in NYT
David Ignatius in WaPo
Reuters report on Hamas deceptions
Although Iran denies it and the US can’t confirm it, Hamas bragged to WSJ that Iran had helped plot the Gaza attacks.
In other news, the House Appropriations chairman says the cuts promised by McCarthy are off the table now that he has been deposed.
And note the strength of AfD in the German elections.
Better late than never,I wanted to note that USGLC put out a good comparison of House & Senate versions of the State-Foreign Ops bill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The politics of Hamas’ flood
I don’t often comment on Israel and Palestine. There are many others, including Shibley, who know more about it but have not been able to find solutions. I join most of them in denouncing the heinous Hamas attack, clearly focused in part on civilians, and any retaliatory abuses by the Israelis against Palestinians. But looking beyond current events it is hard not to wonder how current events will work out politically inside Israel, in the Occupied Territories (West Bank and Gaza), in the region, and in the United States.
Inside Israel
In my ultra-rational world, those responsible for Israel’s obvious intelligence and military failures would be held responsible. Either the current government would fall. Or Prime Minister Netanyahu, in an effort to save himself, would accept Yair Lapid’s offer to bring the opposition into a national unity government. That would presumably eject the ultranationalist like Ben Gvir, the current national security miniister, and finance minister Smotrich.
The national unity government would still seek to devastate Hamas in Gaza. But it could also end Netanyahu’s attack on Israel’s judiciary and democracy. And it could end the settler violence and seek an accommodation with the Palestinian Authority (PA) that would give it more effective governing authority over a larger part of the West Bank.
But that isn’t likely. Already some Israelis are blaming Iran. Some are also urging further crackdowns on the Palestinians, not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank. If the extremists survive, they will get worse in the future. Their ultimate aim is to rid the West Bank of Palestinians and to subjugate Gaza. Hamas will use its civilian and military hostages as levers against Israel. That will further strengthen the extremists.
Jerusalem as the focus
Extremist Israelis have for years been challenging the status quo on the Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif. Jews are not allowed to pray by their own traditional law. The Israelis have also conducted police operations even inside the Dome of the Rock mosque. This is in addition to extension of Jewish presence in East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians want as the capital of their future state, and a big upswing in settler violence agaianst Palestinians in the West Bank.
Hamas is clever. Not only did it invent new ways to assault Israel. It also keyed that assault to Jerusalem, naming its offensive “Al Aqsa Flood” (Al Aqsa refers both to one of the mosques on the Haram al Sharif/Temple Mount as well as to the compound as a awhole). Framing its assault as a response to Israeli misbehavior in Jerusalem enables Hamas to appeal not only to Palestinians in Gaza but also to Palestinians in the West Bank and beyond, as well as the Muslim world more generally. All Muslims, like Jews and Christians, pray in the direction of Al Quds (“the Holiness”), Jerusalem.
In the Occupied Territories
By posing as the defender of Jerusalem, Hamas makes the failures of the secular PA in the West Bank strikingly evident. Palestinians have long been dissatisfied with its unaccountable and poor governance as well as its willingness to cooperate with the Israeli security forces. If current events lead to more settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, a rebellion there that could collapse the PA.
In Gaza, Palestinians are unlikely to rebel no matter how much damage the Israelis do. I won’t say they are used to it. But they haven’t rebelled in the past in the aftermath of several Hamas defeats. They aren’t likely to rebel after a war that will be regarded as a Hamas success.
In the region
The obvious impact in the region is to make Saudi/Israeli mutual recognition, unlikely anyway, more unlikely. The Saudis won’t want to buck public sentiment, which is pro-Palestinian. Nor will they want to reward Israel in the aftermath of the destruction it will wreck in Gaza. The Arab countries that have already recognized Israel (UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan) will speak up about abuses against Palestinians and destruction in Gaza. But I would expect them to try to maintain their relations with Israel.
Both the Israelis and Americans are saying Iran did not play a direct role in the Hamas attack. It will nevertheless be strengthened. It has supplied Hamas for decades. Tehran sponsors Hizbollah in Lebanon and its own forces as well as proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. Thus Iran now all but surrounds Israel and can hope to discomfort the Israelis at will.
In America
The Iran angle will be important in the U.S. Republicans have already blamed President Biden’s agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets in South Korea, even though they have not yet been drawn down. No doubt there will be assertions that the Administration hasn’t done enough to support Israel, though the facts belie that claim. Biden has been as stalwart as any of his predessors in supporting Israeli security and has mobilized U.S. forces in the region.
Nevertheless, those in power get blamed when bad things happen. Trump will no doubt send a few unfounded blasts at Biden. It would be truly tragic if Hamas helps Trump to return to power. But that, too, is possible.
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