Category: Daniel Serwer
You aim too high and tilt too far.
I sometimes daydream. Here is my daydream for what I would say to the US and EU negotiators with Kosovo and Serbia:
Gentlemen: The current crisis in Kosovo creates daunting challenges. I wish you well in managing those.
But you also face challenges in the broader normalization process you have embarked on.
Failure is an option
There I think you are failing.
I don’t mean with Prime Minister Kurti. You are obviously failing with him.
But you are also failing with President Vucic.
I don’t see any evidence that he has moved one centimeter closer to the West in recent years, either domestically or internationally.
He is governing Serbia in increasingly autocratic ways and seeks to control Serb populations in neighboring countries.
He has continued to build a web of military and security relations with Moscow as well security and economic relations with Beijing.
He sits now on three stools.
Leverage wasted
Yes, Serbia is still vastly more dependent on the EU than on Russia or China for trade and investment, but the EU has done little to exploit its leverage.
It is hamstrung by its consensual structure and the five member states that don’t recognize Kosovo.
The U.S. has fed Vucic mainly carrots. We praise him as a partner, rarely mention his media manipulation or corruption close to him, refrain from asserting what we know about his control of thugs who dominate northern Kosovo and attacked KFOR, fail to criticize him for mobilizing military forces, and revivify National Guard cooperation.
We also pay him the honor of a visit from the USAID Administrator, a devotee of democracy and expert on war crimes and crimes against humanity, but he subsequently dines with a convicted war criminal.
Washington understandably appreciates Vucic’s allowing arms to go to Ukraine. That is hardly a sacrifice on his part.
The EU and US are pursuing Vucic’s main priority, the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASMM) inside Kosovo, with missionary fervor. But they offer little in return but a promise of renewing already failed efforts at gaining international recognition for Pristina.
The EU claims there are 16 arrangements like the ASMM in Europe. Each and every one of them, however, is in a country recognized by its neighbors.
With recognition by Serbia, Kosovo should be glad to arrange an ASMM like those others.
Re-assessement needed
Your current approach to normalization will not work: it aims too high and tilts too far.
Vucic is not ready to accept Kosovo’s territorial integrity, much less its sovereignty. You need to lower your sights and adjust your strategy.
What will work with Serbia is fewer carrots and more sticks.
What will work with Kosovo is fewer sticks and more carrots.
Continuing with your current approach risks undermining normalization and causing serious regional instability. Bosnia is inching towards de facto partition. Montenegro is drifting towards subordination to Serbia.
So my question is this: are you prepared, before the failure is complete, to do a thorough re-evaluation of your current strategy? Will you consult broadly about how to press forward before you are pressed backwards? Are you willing to rethink before you cause more problems in the Balkans than you solve?
PS: I did this interview for N1/BiH earlier last Wednesday.
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Stevenson’s army, June 20
-WaPo summarizes the Blinken visit. Note what he said to the news media, echoing the traditional US position on Taiwan.
-A CFR panel has its report on Taiwan policy.
– New reports say China and Cuba are negotiating a military base.
– FT says the Chinese exam for college is full of XI ideas.
– NYT investigation concludes Russia blew up the Khakhovka dam.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Road to nowhere in Montenegro
Miodrag Vlahović, former Montengrin Minister of Foreign Affairs and former ambassador to US, is now president of the Montengrin Helsinki Committee. He writes:
Early parliamentary elections in Montenegro attracted the lowest turnout ever (56%). They have not brought major surprises. The populist movement “Europe Now!” gained seats in parliament, as expected. It won only a thin majority (24 MPs to 21) over the “Together” coalition led by former President Djukanović’s DPS. That creates additional uncertainities and confusion in an already compromised and disrupted political situation.
Government formation faces challenges
One thing seems clear: no coalition is possible between the two largest parliamentary groups. Milojko Spajić will almost certainly be given the mandate to form the the next government. He excludes any possibility of forming a cabinet with DPS.
Spajić also rejects a coalition with incumbent “technical” Prime Minister Abazović’s URA Movement, which won 12.5% and 11 seats (together with “Democratic Montenegro”). The bitter feud between the two is based on still unproven accusations of illegal election funding by a South Korean crypto-currency trader, now under investigation. The outcome of that proceeding may be harmful both for Spajić and Abazović. It has already become an important – if not the most important – feature of post-election Montenegro.
The pro-Serbian, pro-Russian For the Future of Montenegro coalition won 14.7% and 13, which puts them in a vital position despite a big decline from the previous election.
The country is not in good shape
Parliamentary elections in August 2020 expelled DPS from the majority. Despite much pro-EU rhetoric, the results since have been poor. Two annual EU Commission reports on Montenegrin progress have shown regression, despite EU Commissioner for Enlargement Varhelyi’s effort to support the populists who took power. In the meantime, the two anti-DPS governments have caused dissaray in all segments of social, economic, and political life, with clear signs of influence coming from Belgrade and Moscow.
The last barrier against collapse remains Montenegro’s NATO membership. Even that was significantly compromised by intentional disruption of important activities of Agency for National Security against the Serbian/Russian spy network in the country. Abazović has overseen constant, debilitating purges there.
Spajić promotes a wishful thinking economic program, “Europe Now 2.0.” But even he acknowledges the country is on the brink of financial implosion. “No salaries for public servants after September,” he has stated bluntly. But that has not prevented him from promising increases in salaries and pensions while announcing elimination of the state Pension Fund! Those voters who supported Spajić as well as two other coalitions close to Serbian President Vučić ignore the risk of economic crisis. They count on promises of miraculous progress by a new government empowered soon.
They may find themselves utterly surprised. Neither Spajić nor Jakov Milatović, the vice-president of “Europe Now!” and newly elected President, can guarantee political harmony even within their own political ranks. Milatović remains close not only to Serbian President Vučić, but also to Abazović. That complicates Spajić’sposition.
The internationals
The Western diplomatic community in Podgorica prefers stability underwritten by a stable qualified majority in the Parliament. They ignore the perils of participation by pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties, despite their anti-NATO and de facto anti-EU standings. The problem will be how to include the ethnic minority parties (Bosniak, Albanian, and Croatian) in the new government. Western diplomats may intend to politely order them to join.
Both Abazović and Milatović, together with other leaders of the projected majority, support the Serbian proposal for “Open Balkans,” which the US backs. Spajić is unlike to oppose it if he wants to become prime minister.
So, the proverb has been confirmed: “once you enter the wrong train – all the stations are the wrong ones.” Montenegro entered the wrong train in August 2020. Insisting on continuing the journey does not ensure but rather endangers Montenegrin political stability and economic viability. It is a destructive and detrimental project. The next station may have the name “Grave Consequences.” The names of other “stations” would not be good even to mention here…
The return from the road to nowhere will be long and painful. The later it comes, the worse it will be.
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Stevenson’s army, June 17
– Biden was talked out of calling Xi during spy balloon incident
– US is pushing hard for Saudi-Israeli agreement
– Russian troops are getting better
– Northcom and Space Force are fighting
-Politico explains Biden”s “radical trade agenda”
– Axios notes increased US manufacturing
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– FP says China is rewriting the Law of the Sea
-Yale prof says we don’t know much about Chinese decision-making
– FT’s always intriguing economist Tim Harford says we should study low tech
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Stevenson’s army, June 16, 2023
Dan Ellsberg, who had a distinguished career in national security before leaking the Pentagon Papers, has died at 92. Fred Kaplan offers an appreciation. [I’ve pasted below a long excerpt from his memoir about advice he gave to Henry Kissinger about having access to government secrets.
Read the indictment of Jack Teixiera, the Discord leaker.
In other news, Hungary has cancelled weapons purchase that some in Congress had blocked.
Sen. Tuberville has been offered a vote on his bill, but he still blocks nominees.
Liz Schrayer, who heads a group that lobbies for more foreign aid [yes, there is one] has an op-ed on countering China. She reports elsewhere that “the House Appropriations Committee proposed dangerous cuts of 31% to America’s footprint in the world,” presumably meaning the GOP cut the allocation for the State/Foreign ops bill.
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Ellsberg to Kissinger, 1968 [from Ellsberg’s memoir, Secrets]
“Henry, there’s something I would like to tell you, for what it’s worth, something I wish I had been told years ago. You’ve been a consultant for a long time, and you’ve dealt a great deal with top secret information. But you’re about to receive a whole slew of special clearances, maybe fifteen or twenty of them, that are higher than top secret.
“I’ve had a number of these myself, and I’ve known other people who have just acquired them, and I have a pretty good sense of what the effects of receiving these clearances are on a person who didn’t previously know they even existed. And the effects of reading the information that they will make available to you.
“First, you’ll be exhilarated by some of this new information, and by having it all — so much! incredible! — suddenly available to you. But second, almost as fast, you will feel like a fool for having studied, written, talked about these subjects, criticized and analyzed decisions made by presidents for years without having known of the existence of all this information, which presidents and others had and you didn’t, and which must have influenced their decisions in ways you couldn’t even guess. In particular, you’ll feel foolish for having literally rubbed shoulders for over a decade with some officials and consultants who did have access to all this information you didn’t know about and didn’t know they had, and you’ll be stunned that they kept that secret from you so well.
“You will feel like a fool, and that will last for about two weeks. Then, after you’ve started reading all this daily intelligence input and become used to using what amounts to whole libraries of hidden information, which is much more closely held than mere top secret data, you will forget there ever was a time when you didn’t have it, and you’ll be aware only of the fact that you have it now and most others don’t….and that all those other people are fools.
“Over a longer period of time — not too long, but a matter of two or three years — you’ll eventually become aware of the limitations of this information. There is a great deal that it doesn’t tell you, it’s often inaccurate, and it can lead you astray just as much as the New York Times can. But that takes a while to learn.
“In the meantime it will have become very hard for you to learn from anybody who doesn’t have these clearances. Because you’ll be thinking as you listen to them: ‘What would this man be telling me if he knew what I know? Would he be giving me the same advice, or would it totally change his predictions and recommendations?’ And that mental exercise is so torturous that after a while you give it up and just stop listening. I’ve seen this with my superiors, my colleagues….and with myself.
“You will deal with a person who doesn’t have those clearances only from the point of view of what you want him to believe and what impression you want him to go away with, since you’ll have to lie carefully to him about what you know. In effect, you will have to manipulate him. You’ll give up trying to assess what he has to say. The danger is, you’ll become something like a moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no matter how much experience they may have in their particular areas that may be much greater than yours.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 15
– NYT says US is still paying Russia billions for nuclear fuel.
– NYT also has more on US-Iran talks.
– Canadian quits China bank, claiming CCP interference.
– FT says Putin backs Defense over Wagner.
– SAIS prof Ed Joseph has a Kosovo plan.
– Europeans discuss guarantees for Ukraine.
– Politico’s China Watcher explains problems facing Blinken’s trip.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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