Category: Daniel Serwer
Harris is not risky, the demonstrations are
Tonight’s opening of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago will rightfully bring back memories of the 1968 convention. Then a police riot against anti-Vietnam war demonstrators contributed to wrecking Hubert Humphrey’s prospects for defeating Richard Nixon. Humphrey came within a whisker (42.7% to Nixon’s 43.4%) of winning the popular vote but lost definitively in the Electoral College (191 to 302). The rest of the votes went to segregationist George Wallace. He in 1963 had pronounced in his inaugural address as Alabama Governor:
Segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever!
It was a scary time
I was a physical chemistry master’s student at the University of Chicago in 1968. It was a traumatic year. The assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert Fitzgerald Kennedy, both favorites among many Democrats, had led to rioting and persistent racial tension. The atmosphere in the South Shore neighborhood in which I lived with my Black fiancée was tense even before the assassinations.
It was much worse after them. A Catholic priest was making his name that spring with the slogan “hold the line at Ashland.” That meant not allowing Blacks to buy houses west of Ashland Avenue. A Christian Orthodox congregation (I don’t remember of which variety) stoned its priest when he showed up one Sunday because he had adopted the Gregorian calendar, presumably on instructions from his church hierarchy. Racial and ethnic passions of all varieties were intense.
By the time of the Democratic Convention in August, we had moved to a much nicer apartment in Hyde Park to housesit. That relatively upscale neighborhood was also tense. As a mixed couple, we attracted a lot of nasty remarks, from Blacks as well as whites. When I was alone, whites would readily indulge in racist commentary.
The Convention made it worse
Richard Daley had been Chicago’s mayor since 1955. He ran the city as a corrupt, largely segregated fiefdom. Abusive use of the police in the aftermath of the assassinations had contributed substantially to the disorder. He was determined to use the police in the same fashion during the Convention.
I went up to Grant Park the afternoon before the Convention opened. The governor had called out the National Guard, which had set up machine guns on the bridges across Lake Shore Drive. The speeches at the demonstration were emotional and all but called for violence. The heavily equipped police, some on horseback, were looking stressed. It took no genius to conclude that the city was about to explode.
I returned to our apartment and suggested we drive east the next day. I was happy to leave racist Chicago in the rear view mirror. The riot started that evening.
It’s different but still risky
I trust Chicago 2024 has overcome much of the racial and ethnic animus of 56 years earlier. It today has a Black mayor whose sympathies on Gaza are with the demonstrators. The demonstrators are protesting Israeli conduct of the war against Hamas in Gaza as well as failure of the Biden Administration to withhold military assistance to Israel. Those issues have split the Democrats–there will be lots of delegates inside the Convention who sympathize with the demonstrators outside, as there were also in 1968.
The key issue will be how well prepared the police are and how skillfully they handle the situation. There will be demonstrators determined to challenge them and try to disrupt the Convention. Preventing a small number from mobilizing the mass of demonstrators to violence will be essential. That said, the city seems determined to protect the right to protest. And the Convention will no doubt hear expressions of support for the causes the demonstrators espouse. All that is good.
Many of the demonstrators will be unsatisfied with Harris’ assertion of sympathy with Palestinian civilians. They need to keep in mind the real alternative. Donald Trump would be much more supportive of Israel than Biden has been. Violence in Chicago in the next few days could throw the election to a Republican who wouldn’t even consider restraining Israel.
If all goes well, Kamala Harris will get the opportunity to extend her remarkable performance of the past few weeks. She is now leading in the national polls and competitive in virtually all the battleground states. The election outcome is of course still in doubt, but the Biden age handicap is gone. Harris is a solid candidate who will do her best to bring the Gaza war to an end. The risk lies not with her but with the demonstrators and their behavior in Chicago this week.
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How to champion a great cause
Photo via Pexels
Nicole Rubin of https://insureabilities.com/writes:
In an era where voices can be amplified through various platforms, taking meaningful action in your community for the causes you believe in has never been more accessible. Whether you’re looking to influence policy, engage in direct action, or leverage digital tools, your involvement can create significant change. This guide, courtesy of Peacefare, will walk you through several impactful strategies to champion your cause effectively.
Participate in Marches or Public Demonstrations
One of the most visible and compelling ways to support a cause is by participating in marches or public demonstrations. These gatherings not only show solidarity for a cause but also attract media attention, helping to raise awareness on a larger scale. By organizing or joining these events, you can connect with like-minded individuals, learn more about the issues at hand, and amplify the message you care about. Remember, there’s strength in numbers, and your presence can contribute to that power.
Start a Petition to Demand Action from Policymakers
Starting a petition is a strategic way to demand action from policymakers. This approach allows you to clearly articulate your demands and gather support from the community. Thanks to digital tools, creating and signing petitions have become more streamlined. Using e-signatures, you can efficiently collect signatures and manage your campaign. Once your petition has gained sufficient traction, you can present it to local representatives or use it to influence public opinion, thereby pushing for the changes you wish to see.
Attend Local Government Meetings
Local government meetings are where crucial decisions about your community are made. Attending these meetings provides a platform to voice your concerns and influence local policies directly. Speaking out on issues that matter to you can also enlighten others in your community who might be unaware of the cause. Engaging with local officials and making informed, passionate appeals can lead to practical changes at the municipal or county level.
Organize a Service Project
Organizing a service project is a practical and engaging way to support your cause. Whether it involves a clean-up day, a fundraising event, or a community workshop, such projects address immediate needs while fostering community spirit and cooperation. When planning a project, it’s important to identify and focus on the most pressing needs related to your cause. Engaging community members to participate promotes a sense of ownership and direct involvement, which can lead to sustained support and enthusiasm for future initiatives.
Use Social Media to Raise Awareness
Social media serves as a formidable tool for raising awareness and mobilizing support for your cause. By crafting compelling content and actively engaging with your audience, you can propagate your message across vast networks. Platforms like Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook are ideal for sharing stories, updates, and calls to action. Effective social media campaigns not only attract supporters and sway public opinion but also have the potential to capture the attention of key decision-makers, significantly amplifying the impact of your advocacy efforts.
Taking action in your community requires commitment and creativity. By employing these strategies, you can champion the causes you care about and foster change. Whether it’s through direct action, digital advocacy, or professional commitment like nursing, your efforts play a crucial role in shaping a better future for your community. Engage passionately, act strategically, and watch as your community transforms through the power of your advocacy.
Peacefare is here to spread and encourage peace. If you have any questions, feel free to post a reply!
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A real incursion with an unclear purpose
Ukrainian forces have penetrated upwards of 15 kilometers or so into the Kursk oblast of Russia north of Kharkiv. This is the most serious Ukrainian penetration of Russian territory during the current war. Milbloggers claim the Russians are trying to counter the incursion with new recruits. They will likely also need to weaken defenses somewhere along the more or less 600-mile front to respond inKursksion.
The balance is shifting
The past year of fighting has seen little change overall. The Russians have gained marginally, especially in the east. They have recently been pushed back from Kharkiv (though not all the way to the border), where they had made some progress in the spring. US failure to keep up the supply of weapons and ammunition last winter damaged Ukrainian morale and defensive capabilities. So too did European hesitancy about economic aid.
Now that economic aid and military supplies are flowing once again, Ukrainian morale and capability are on the mend. F16s are arriving. Better air defense and longer-range artillery and missiles will enhance Ukrainian capabilities. The Kursk incursion will no doubt raise morale further, if it is successful.
Russia’s supplies of stockpiled weapons are running low, but North Korea and Iran are providing missiles and drones. The Russian army has manpower issues, but arguably less serious than those of Ukraine. Still, Vladimir Vladimirovich is not sounding confident, or offering to help the Kursk Governor:
Still, the objective is unclear
Ukraine’s military objective is still unclear. Kyiv has said nothing. A rail line important to supplying Russian troops farther south? The Kursk nuclear power plant? Capture of soldiers or territory that could be traded for Ukrainian territory or soldiers? Encirclement of the Russian units to the south that had fought their way close to Kharkiv? Forcing the Russians to weaken offensive and defensive operations farther south? Encouraging international supporters to hasten arms supplies? Encouraging Putin’s opponents in Moscow and across the Russian Federation to confront him? It still seems to be anyone’s guess.
Ukraine has committed elements of four experienced brigades to the effort, which suggests this is not merely a cross-border raid. It remains to be seen, however, whether the Ukrainians will seek to hold the territory they take. That would be a daunting task, assuming the population is still loyal to Moscow. The population in present-day Kursk oblast overwhelmingly identifies as Russian, not Ukrainian.
War is not math
War, unlike mathematics, has uncertain outcomes, brought about in unexpected ways. The Ukrainians have rolled their dice. We’ll have to wait and see what the result is.
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More and wider war is inevitable, unless…
Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a clear signal with the assassinations of Hizbollah military leader Fouad Shukur in Beirut and Hamas negotiator Ismail Haniyeh last week in Tehran. Israel is not interested in a negotiated end to the war in Gaza and wants to widen the hostilities. Hamas has now signaled with the naming of Yahya Sinwar as its overall leader that it too is prepared to continue the fight. Sinwar is a hardliner compared to the more pragmatic Haniyeh.
More war
Israel has been trying to kill Sinwar since the October 7 attack that he launched against the Israeli communities bordering Gaza. It has so far failed and will no doubt now redouble its efforts. Sinwar advocates killing Jews and retaking all of Palestine, which he regards as an eternal Muslim endowment (waqf), back from them. He is a firm believer in violence rather than negotiations. He has demonstrated little or no interest in the suffering of ordinary Palestinians in Gaza. To him, their suffering is necessary collateral damage.
We should expect Sinwar to continue to hide and the Israelis to continue to search for him. He is a maximalist and will not yield as long as he lives. Finding him in the Gaza tunnels will require either luck or months more destruction.
Wider war
The wider war has been going on now for months. It includes rockets, drones, and artillery fire across the Lebanon/Israel border as well as rocket and drone attacks from the Houthis in Yemen against shipping in the Red Sea, US navy ships, and Israel. This wider war will continue and likely intensify.
No Arab states have indicated an inclination to join in the military offensive against Israel. Turkish President Erdogan has made some vague threats, but he is unlikely to make good on them. The US has pledged to help defend Israel if Iran attacks, but not to attack Iran in retaliation. So the wider war is not as wide as it could potentially get.
No doubt a less visible, less military war is ongoing as well. That war involves intelligence agencies, proxy forces, and individual saboteurs and assassins. The Iranians are particularly good at the proxy forces element. They have used Hamas, Hizbollah, and the Houthis to harass Israel. They seem far less adept at the intelligence piece. The Israelis have killed and sabotaged Iranian assets repeatedly for many years.
Negotiations are at an impasse, but…
The Americans continue to hope for a negotiated end to the current fighting in Gaza. They hope that would tone down, if not eliminate, the Hizbollah and Houthi attacks. It would also provide an opportunity to exchange prisoners/hostages and perhaps begin reconstruction.
They are likely to be disappointed. So long as Netanyahu and Sinwar hold power in their respective communities, the Gaza war will continue. They both need the conflict to survive. Nor is it clear that Hizbollah and especially the Houthis would stop their attacks on Israel if the Gaza war ends. The Middle East is now fighting a long war, not a short one.
The solution lies with the people of Gaza and Israel. If they decide the time has come, Sinwar and Netanyahu can be brought down, as Sheikh Hasina was in Bangladesh in recent days. Gazans show little inclination to topple Sinwar, not least because it would be risky for anyone trying. The situation in Israel is more promising. Most Israelis want to see an end to Netanyahu’s reign. They need to figure out how to make it happen.
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Read this to not be surprised
A few challenges today to the accepted wisdom:
- Iran and its allies will not necessarily attack Israel with missiles and drones.
- Whatever they do may not come soon.
- The prisoner exchange with Russia was a good thing, but it will have bad consequences.
- The American election outcome isn’t as uncertain as the current polling suggests.
The impending Iranian attack may not be what you think
I have no inside information, but I won’t be surprised if Iran chooses something other than an air raid to attack Israel. While such a raid could do a lot of damage if it gets past Israeli defenses, it would not be a mirror image of the Israeli attack that killed Ismail Haniyeh. It would also likely cause a lot of civilian casualties, including among the 18% of Israel’s population that is Muslim.
The Iranians may instead try to kill a Israeli high-ranking target. Assassinating a negotiator or general in Jerusalem would create real fear among Israelis. But it would not give much reason for the US to join in a strike against Iran, which is what Prime Minister Netanyahu wants.
In the meanwhile, the Iranians are enjoying the massive and expensive deployment of American assets as well as the mobilization strain on the Israelis. Without striking, Tehran is forcing its enemies to run up their bills and exhaust their soldiers and sailors. The longer Iran waits, the higher the costs.
Exchanging prisoners creates a moral hazard
The exchange of prisoners last week between Russia and various Western states has to be counted a good thing. It freed a lot of innocent people.
But it also freed some dreadful criminals, including a Russian assassin. That will have the unfortunate effect of encouraging President Putin to take more hostages that he can exchange for still more Russian miscreants. I’ve been to Moscow three times (1974, 1994, and 2014), so twice when it was the capital of the Soviet Union. I would not go again now. While the risk to any individual American might be small, Putin’s Russia is more likely to arbitrarily arrest Americans than the Soviets.
Russia isn’t the only country I would hesitate to visit these days. China also poses much greater risks than in the past. Iran specializes in incarcerating mainly Iranian Americans. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Yemen, Afghanistan, Egypt, and Mozambique also hold Americans for less than good reasons. Something like 40 Americans are still unjustly held abroad, despite significant successes.
It goes without saying that Americans traveling abroad should take care to follow the local laws. But even if you do, there is an increasing likelihood of unjust detention. I wouldn’t visit Russia, China, or Iran today without some guarantees, which would not be easy to get. I even hesitate to go to Serbia, which I visited more than a few times during the Milosevic regime. But President Vucic is a student of President Putin. And Vucic knows who I am and what I write.
Harris is winning
The past two weeks have exhibited a remarkable outpouring of pro-Harris sentiment in the American electorate. She is beating Trump in national polls, and has drawn even in battleground states. The horse race isn’t over until November, but if she can keep rising in the polls, Trump is done.
I expect Harris to own this month. She will pick a good vice presidential candidate, likely today. All six candidates are far more experienced and more moderate than J.D. Vance, Trump’s big mistake. The Democratic Convention August 19-22 in Chicago will display a unified and mobilized party determined to win, even if the risk of unruly pro-Palestinian demonstrations is real.
A lot depends on whether the economy is landing hard or soft from the COVID-19 recovery. But I am still hoping the Fed will get it somewhere near right, despite yesterday’s big stock market retreat.
The outcome of an American election is happily unpredictable. But Harris can win. I’ll do my best to try to make that come true. I’m inclined to relocate to Atlanta, where I have a house down the street from my older son’s family, for much of October. I’ll volunteer to get the vote out and ensure proper election administration. I vote in DC, not Georgia, but more than 90% of DC will vote for Harris. Georgia is one of the battlegrounds. That’s where I would like to be.
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When you are in a hole, stop digging
The world awaits retaliation against Israel for its assassinations last week. Both were relatively surgical affairs that killed the military commander of Lebanese Hizbollah in Beirut (as well as some women and children) and the political spokesman of Hamas in Tehran. Expectations for retaliation focus on a large missile and drone attack from all directions.
I doubt that. If successful, such a raid might mobilize the US to join Israel in a further escalation. That is something the Iranians don’t want.
It need not be an air raid
Israel has seemed invulnerable for decades. Its sophisticated air defenses have prevented thousands of missiles and drones from reaching population centers.
Iran and its partners might be better served to assassinate one or more major Israeli political or military figures. That would be a symmetrical response that some might argue does not justify further escalation. It would also strike fear into the hearts of every Jew in Israel. The only major Jewish figure murdered in modern Israel was Prime Minister Itzhak Rabin, killed by a Jew.
The Israelis have demonstrated that they can track and strike major figures in the capitals of their adversaries. Is it really possible that the “axis of resistance” has not developed a comparable capability inside Israel?
The capability need not necessarily be technologically sophisticated. Knives, guns, and grenades can be smuggled and murderers deployed or hired. Targets of opportunity should not be difficult to find in a small and relatively open society.
Iran has assets it doesn’t want to lose
The Iranians will decide. Hizbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis may have been relatively free to do what they wanted since October 7, but no doubt Tehran is now coordinating the retaliation.
Iran has reached nuclear threshold status. It is able to build a nuclear bomb within weeks with material in its possession. Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for an excuse to damage that capability. In April, the Israelis demonstrated their ability to reach Iran’s nuclear facilities with drones that went undetected. Iran may want to hide its hand in the retaliation, mirroring Israel’s refusal to confirm its hand in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Netanyahu wins, Israel loses
A successful assassination or two, or a successful air raid, will put the Israelis again on the spot. President Biden has already made clear to Netanyahu that the US will not back further escalation. If Netanyahu pays heed, the cycle will end. If not, it will continue.
That said, Netanyahu has already accomplished several of his own goals. The Gaza talks can go nowhere until the escalation ends. He does not want the ceasefire/prisoner exchange that Washington is insisting on. The Democrats risk a major war during the election campaign, giving advantage to Trump, whom Netanyahu favors. The crisis will enable him to stay in power at least until October, when the Knesset returns from recess, and likely beyond.
Israel is the big loser. The ferocious October 7 attack was far from an existential threat, but Netanyahu and many Israelis have characterized it as such. That justified the ferocious response in Gaza that has in turn led to the assassinations and potential war with Iran and its partners. That really is an existential threat. When you are in a hole, stop digging.
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