Category: Eddie Grove
Peace picks September 14-19
1. Iran’s Regional Role After the Nuclear Deal | Monday, September 14th | 2:00 – 3:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | An internal debate is occurring within Iran about its regional role in the aftermath of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program. Nasser Hadian will present the findings of his new paper which argues that Iranian policymakers are divided between those who believe Iran must act more forcefully to help stabilize its neighbors and those who advocate a more minimalist approach– contrary to perceptions that Iran is solely determined to expand its intervention in regional conflicts, particularly as they formulate their own JCPOA posture, US policymakers should be aware of this debate, seeking ways, where possible, of working with Iran to decrease conflict and to prevent traditional US allies from exacerbating instability. The Iran Task Force, chaired by Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat, seeks to perform a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s internal political landscape and its role in the region and globally, and explore opportunities for an improved relationship with the West. It is supported generously by the Ploughshares Fund. Speakers include: Nasser Hadian, Professor, University of Tehran, Bilal Saab, Senior Fellow, Middle East Peace and Security Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council. Moderated by:
Barbara Slavin, Senior Fellow, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council.
2. Addressing Nontraditional Security Threats in South Asia | Tuesday, September 15th | 9:30 – 10:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | India is positioning itself to play a leading role in Asia and globally. The Modi administration is investing in strengthening security relationships, accelerating economic growth, and increasing trade to champion this new outlook. However, India faces several nontraditional security threats, which may limit its power trajectory if not addressed effectively. Latha Reddy will discuss the policy implications of these threats- including water security, climate change, and cyber warfare- and how India will play a leading role on these issues within and beyond its borders. Speakers include: Latha Reddy, Former Deputy National Security Adviser of India and Huma Haque, Atlantic Council Associate Director, South Asia Center.
3. Development policies to foster stability in West Africa | Tuesday, September 15th | 10:00 – 11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | West Africa is making impressive progress in economic growth, democratization, and regional cooperation. While the recent rise in violence and conflict as well as drug trafficking, piracy, extremism, and other emerging threats have sparked concerns over its future development, efforts to prevent conflicts have also improved, contributing to overall stability. In a new report, ‘The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa,’ the World Bank examines the diverse drivers of fragility-from issues related to land ownership, to a growing youth population with expectations for inclusion, to accelerated development of the extractives industry-and suggests development interventions that can contribute to peace and stability. Countries in West Africa such as Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, and Liberia offer lessons in building resilience, highlighting the important role of development policy to address these challenges. On Tuesday, September 15, the Brookings Africa Growth Initiative and the World Bank will co-host a discussion about these dynamic trends in West Africa. After a brief presentation by the report’s author Alexandre Marc, chief specialist of the World Bank’s Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group, Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon will moderate a discussion among Marc, Amadou Sy, director and senior fellow of the Africa Growth Initiative, and Raymond Gilpin, dean of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, exploring the nature and reality of these threats as well as potential for development solutions to address them.
4. Post Agreement: The Role of Natural Gas in Iran’s Energy Future | Tuesday, September 15th | 12:00 – 1:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join us for a panel discussion on the future of Iranian energy, particularly natural gas, in a post-sanctions world. The panel of Atlantic Council fellows includes Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International, Barbara Slavin, Washington Correspondent for Al-Monitor, and Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Visiting Researcher and Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. Yeganeh Torbati of Reuters will moderate the interactive discussion on the following issues and more:
- The latest insight on the Iran agreement in light of the pending US Congressional vote
- Iran’s energy policy priorities in the near and medium term, particularly as it relates to natural gas
- The outlook for foreign investment in Iran’s energy sector
- The geopolitical implications of Iranian natural gas development.
5. Protecting Civilians in Syria: Parameters of the Problem and Policy Options | Wednesday, September 16th | 11:30 – 1:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Images of dead Syrian children washing ashore in Turkey may serve to overcome that which is charitably described as “Syria fatigue:” widespread American and international apathy in the face of a grotesque and growing humanitarian abomination in which civilians are deliberately targeted for murder. This is a catastrophe with policy consequences. What are its dimensions and what options exist for mitigation? UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon reported that the United Nations and its partners were unable to deliver food and aid to over 422,000 people in besieged areas in July. On August 13, US Representative to the United Nations Samantha Power decried the Syrian regime’s dropping of over 2,000 barrel bombs over a six-week period; the following weekend barrel bombs killed over 100 people in the Damascus suburb of Douma. Meanwhile, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Chief Antonio Guterres said the number of refugees is forecasted to reach 4.27 million by year end. While the United States expands its coalition with new partners to fight the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL), the Assad regime atrocities answered with words but no action bolster ISIS in its worldwide recruitment. Please join Ambassador Frederic Hof of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and a panel of distinguished experts for a discussion centering on the protection of Syrian civilians: the parameters of the problem and policy options for its mitigation. Panelists include: The Hon. Frederic C. Hof, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Rola Hallam, Medical Director, Syrian Civil Defense, Valerie Szybala, Executive Director, Syrian Civil Defense, and Raed Saleh, Head, Syrian Civil Defense.
6. Serbia’s future: Challenges and opportunities for regional stability, reconciliation, and integration |Wednesday, September 16th | 4:00-5:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On September 16, the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will host Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić for a public address on Serbia’s outlook, and how the country can enhance political and economic stability and cooperation in the region and reaffirm its European perspective. In his remarks, the prime minister will explore challenges and opportunities for the country and the continent as a whole, including the rapidly-growing influx of migrants and refugees and the importance of reconciliation in overcoming the difficult legacies of the past. Vučić became Serbia’s prime minister after his party’s victory in the March 2014 elections. Previously, from 2013 to 2014, he served as first deputy prime minister in charge of the fight against corruption and crime, and as minister of defense from 2012 to 2013. He is also the leader of the Serbian Progressive Party, which he helped to found in October 2008. Brookings Senior Fellow Fiona Hill will provide introductory remarks and moderate a question and answer session following Prime Minister Vučić’s remarks.
7. Iran in Central Asia and the Caucasus | Wednesday, September 16th | 5:00 – 7:00 | SAIS-Rome Building | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Discussion of Iran in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
8. Anwar al-Awlaki, Yemen, and American counterterrorism policy | Thursday, September 17th | 10:00 – 11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On September 30, 2011, the U.S.-born radical Islamic cleric, Anwar al-Awlaki, was killed by an American drone strike in Yemen, marking the first extra-judicial killing by the United States government against a U.S. citizen. Placed at the top of a CIA kill list in 2010 by the Obama administration, al-Awlaki was known for his intimate involvement in multiple al-Qaida terrorist plots against U.S. citizens, including the 2009 Christmas Day airline bombing attempt in Detroit and the 2010 plot to blow up U.S.-bound cargo planes. His calls for violent jihad remain prominent on the Internet, and his influence has turned up in many cases since his death, including the Boston Marathon bombing of 2013 and the Charlie Hebdo shootings in Paris early this year. In a new book, “Objective Troy: A Terrorist, A President, and the Rise of the Drone” (Crown, 2015), The New York Times national security reporter Scott Shane, drawing on in-depth field research in Yemen and interviews with U.S. government officials, charts the intimate details of the life and death of al-Awlaki, including his radicalization, his recruiting efforts for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, and the use of drone strikes by the United States to prosecute its counterterrorism goals. On September 17, the Intelligence Project will host Shane to examine the roles played by al-Awlaki in al-Qaida plots against the United States, al-Awlaki’s continued influence on terrorism, and the current state of al-Qaida today. Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel, director of the Intelligence Project, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion. Following their remarks, Riedel and Shane will take questions from the audience.
9. U.S. Foreign Policy Towards the Middle East: Priorities and Challenges | Thursday, September 17th | 1:00-2:00 | SAIS – Nitze Building | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Dean Vali Nasr and the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins SAIS invite you to join them for: U.S. Foreign Policy Towards the Middle East: Priorities and Challenges with Ambassador Anne Patterson, assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs and Ambassador Shirin Tahir-Kheli, senior fellow, Foreign Policy Institute.
10. Veiled Ambition: A Simulation of Iranian-American Relations in the Middle East | Saturday, September 19th | 11:15-6:00 | George Washington University, Philips Hall | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant broke onto the international stage, terrifying millions and forcing the United States to re-examine its policies in the Middle East. Since that time, the United States has successfully brokered a nuclear deal with Iran, Yemen has fallen to Shia rebels, and the Islamic State has continued to wreak havoc throughout northern Iraq. The Middle East possesses an undeniable strategic interest to the United States: both for its natural resources, and for the valuable allies the United States has made in the region. With Shia influence increasing throughout Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, the National Security Council must once again analyze its strategic priorities: is the United States willing to work with Shia militias to counter the threat of the Islamic State? Can, or should, the United States convince Saudi Arabia to work with a Shia Yemen to eliminate the al Qaeda threat in the region? How should western actors approach the Syrian Civil War, an unending crisis for nearly four and a half years.
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Peace picks September 8-11
1. EES Distinguished Lecture Series: “Does the EU have a future?” with Professor Erik Jones and Sir Michael Leigh | Tuesday, September 8th | 6:00 – 7:30 | SAIS- Rome Building | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The European and Eurasian Studies Program Distinguished Lecture Series invites you to kick off the 2015-2016 series with the Director of the EES Program, Professor Erik Jones, and Sir Michael Leigh as they discuss “Does the EU have a future?”
2. WEBCAST ONLY: Hillary Clinton addresses the Iran nuclear deal | Wednesday, September 9th | 9:00 – 10:00 | Webcast sponsored by Brookings | REGISTER TO WATCH | Next week, Congress will begin debate on a resolution to disapprove of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which will lift economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. This is probably the most significant foreign policy debate that Congress has been involved in since the Iraq war in 2003. On September 9, Brookings will live stream remarks from former Secretary of State Clinton on her view of the significance of the Iran nuclear deal and its implications for the future of U.S. foreign policy in the region. Hillary Clinton was sworn in as the 67th secretary of state of the United States in January 2009, after nearly four decades in public service as an advocate, attorney, first lady, and senator. During her tenure in the Senate, she served on the Armed Services Committee and worked to launch the government’s Vital Voices Democracy Initiative. She was also a commissioner on the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe. Brookings President Strobe Talbott will provide introductory remarks and Brookings Executive Vice President Martin Indyk will moderate the discussion.
3. Voices From Japan: National Security Speaker Series, with the Keynote Address – “Japan’s New National Security Policy” By – The Honorable Itsunori Onodera, the 12th Minister of Defense of Japan | Wednesday, September 9th | 10:00 – 11:30 | Stimson| REGISTER TO ATTEND | As the security environment surrounding Japan rapidly undergoes changes, Japan has sought to adapt alongside it. Since December 2012, the Abe government was pushed forward changes to Japan’s defense establishment, including new principles for arms exports, a reinterpretation of Article 9 for collective self-defense, updated US-Japan bilateral security guidelines, and now potentially new security legislation for the purpose of implementing these changes. The Honorable Itsunori Onodera, drawing on his long experiences in Japanese politics, most recently as the Minister of Defense between 2012-2014, will lay out his vision for Japan’s national security policy in this dramatic period. Moderator: Yuki Tatsumi, The Stimson Center.
4. East Timor Roundtable with Dr. John Blaxland | Wednesday, September 9th | 12:30 – 2:00 | CSIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies is pleased to invite you for a discussion with John Blaxland, senior fellow at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University. Blaxland writes extensively on military history, intelligence and security, and Asia-Pacific affairs. He will discuss his recently-published book East Timor Intervention: A Retrospective on INTERFET, Southeast Asian security affairs, and Australia’s role in security and regional stability. Blaxland has served previously as director for Joint Intelligence Operations at the Australian military’s Headquarters Joint Operations Command, and before that, as defense attache to Thailand and Myanmar from 2008 to 2010. Blaxland earned his PhD in war studies from the Royal Military College of Canada.
5. The Twenty-Fifth Anniversary of the Gulf War | Thursday, September 10th | 1:00 | Webcast sponsored by CFR | VIEWING LINK| Experts discuss the legacy of the Gulf War. Speakers include (and are listed with their titles during the war): Richard N. Haass, Senior Director, Near East and South Asian Affairs, National Security Council, Richard Kerr, Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, Thomas R. Pickering, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and Paul D. Wolfowitz, U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. Presider: Deborah Amos, International Correspondent, National Public Radio.
6. Women as Victims of Terrorism | Thursday, September 10th | 3:00-6:00 | Heritage | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Showing of PBS Frontline Documentary Escaping ISIS: gripping first-hand accounts of women who escaped the brutal reign of ISIS. ISIS barbarity against women, particularly those from religious minorities, is well-documented. Media reports about a codified system of sex slavery that involves ISIS fighters regularly raping pre-teen girls and young women from the minority Yazidi community has shocked the West. ISIS relies on acts of extreme violence, particularly the brutalization of women, to consolidate control over populations and as a recruitment tool. What should the U.S. do to end the ISIS atrocities against women and girls? Come view an acclaimed documentary and hear a panel of experts discuss this disturbing yet critical issue. Followed by a Panel Discussion with Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, Kurdistan Regional Government Representative to the United States, and Nina Shea, Director, Center for Religious Freedom, Hudson Institute. Moderated by Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center, The Heritage Foundation.
7. Nuclear Policy Talks: The Iran Nuclear Deal | Thursday, September 10th | 4:30 – 6:00 | Elliott School of International Affairs | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Iran Nuclear Deal: The Technical Debate Clarified The US Congress is currently debating the pluses and minuses of the Iran Nuclear Deal, approval of which would mark a new chapter in the relations of the US and Iran after a long cold stand-off. ; Will the Iran Nuclear Deal prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons or establish and engrain their nuclear prowess? To shed light on the technical aspects of the Iran Nuclear Deal, currently under consideration by the US Congress, our distinguished panelists will present their views and answer questions from the audience. ; Panelists include noted physicist and arms control researcher Professor Frank von Hippel of Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, radiochemist and former head of the Office of Safeguards at the International Atomic Energy Agency, Dr. Olli Heinonen, a Senior Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and former ambassador Dr. Hossein Mousavian, a Research Scholar at the Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security.
8. Reischauer Seminar – Japan, China, and the Post-Sanctions Persian Gulf: Implications for the United States and Global Affairs | Thursday, September 10th | 4:30 – 6:00 | SAIS- Rome Building| REGISTER TO ATTEND | Professor Kent Calder will examine the relationship between East Asia and the Persian Gulf and how that plays into the United States’ relations around the world. China and Japan have been Iran’s largest trading partners before sanctions– they will likely play major roles in its economic future. Japan and China are also the largest importers of oil in the world from the Gulf– both the Iranian and the Arab sides of the Gulf. Their future interaction with the Gulf will in economic terms certainly be larger than those of Europe and the US– what will that renewed reality mean for the broader world?
9. Should the United States be the World’s Policeman? | Thursday, September 10th | 5:30-7:00 | Sponsored by the McCain Institute and located at the U.S. Navy Memorial Heritage Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Challenges to global security and U.S. interests around the world are mounting – from ISIS and a disintegrating Middle East, to an aggressive and authoritarian Russia, to China’s expansionism in the Pacific. But is it the role of the United States to take on all of these global challenges? Should America be projecting power, supporting international order, and countering opponents like these, because if not, the challenges will only continue to grow? Or should the United States stay focused on rebuilding its economy, and conserving its strength to face only truly existential challenges, rather than risking over-stretch in foreign adventures? In other words, should the United States be the world’s policeman? And if not, who will? Join @McCainInstitute for a lively debate as leading experts decide if the United States should be the world’s policeman. #MIDebate
Confirmed debaters:
Pro
Tom Donnelly
Resident Fellow and Co-Director of the Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies, AEI
Julianne Smith
Senior Fellow and Director of the Strategy and Statecraft Program, Center for A New American Security
Con
Richard Burt
Chairman, National Interest Advisory Board
Elizabeth Cobbs
Melbern Glasscock Chair, Texas A&M University
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Anatomy of a possible “safe zone”
In late July, it was announced that the US would be allowed to use Incirlik airbase in Turkey to conduct airstrikes against ISIS. This move came immediately after ISIS claimed responsibility for a bombing in Suruç, Turkey that killed 33 people. It has been widely reported that the US/Turkey deal also included a provision for some sort of safe zone, or ISIS-free, zone along the Turkish-Syrian border.
US officials have denied that this zone would be a true safe zone or no-fly zone, but rather that the US and Turkey would collaborate to clear a zone from ISIS control and look to man it with moderate opposition fighters. According to Foreign Policy, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said that the zone will not be an official no-fly zone but will have US air support. President Erdoğan has stated that the zone could allow for 1.8 million Syrian refugees to be repatriated.
News sources are generally in agreement that the zone would extend west along the Syrian border from Jarablus on the Euphrates. Some reports state that the zone will extend as far as Marea, while others state that it will extend as far as A’zaz. The depth of the zone is less certain, but reports indicate that it will be 40-50 km deep. Assuming a depth of approximately 45 km, the zone would look like this if it extends to Marea:
Here is a larger zone extending to A’zaz:
- The red line is the Turkey-Syrian border and the yellow line is the possible extent of the zone, if it goes to A’azaz.
The larger population centers, as well some towns and villages where fighting has recently taken place, are marked with pins. Those marked in black are under ISIS control and those in green are under rebel control. Zahraa, in red, is a Twelver Shiite, regime-controlled city, and Aleppo, in white, is under mixed rebel and regime control. It is worth noting that the eastern portion of the zone is sparsely populated, but Manbij and Al-Bab are larger cities, with populations of ~100,000 and approximately ~60,000, respectively. The Western part of the zone is more heavily cultivated and densely populated; whether the zone would contain the sizeable towns of A’zaz (population ~30,000) and Tel Rifat (population ~20,000) is an important question.
Below is a map of areas of control created by Dutch student Thomas van Linge and updated on August 18. I have overlayed a portion of the map onto a Google Earth view of the zone:
If the zone extends to Marea it will encompass almost entirely ISIS-held territory (shown in gray). Marea itself is under ISIS siege and is controlled by a mix of the FSA, the Islamic Front and Jaysh Al-Mujahideen. A’zaz is controlled by a mix of the FSA and the Islamic Front and Tel Rifat is controlled by a mix of the FSA, Jaysh Al-Mujahideen, the Islamic Front, Faylaq Al-Sham (also known as the Sham Legion–a group of moderate Islamists who have had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, but are trying to distance themselves from it).
Andrea Taylor and Abigail Kukura have suggested that a coalition of rebels known as the Levant Front (or Jabhat al-Shamiyya) could be at least partially relied upon as a ground force to protect the zone. The Levant Front is an alliance between the Islamic Front (which includes Ahrar Al-Sham), Jaysh Al-Mujahideen, and three other Islamist rebel groups. Ahrar Al-Sham is a hardline Islamist group, that supports the creation of a Sunni Islamic theocracy in Syria. It coordinates tactically with the Nusra Front, but also works with more moderate and secular rebel groups. Ambassador Robert Ford and Ali El Yassir have argued that the US should open a dialogue with Ahrar Al Sham, because it is one of the most powerful rebel groups. Given the composition of rebel groups in the western portion of the zone, the US will be forced to cooperate with Ahrar Al Sham, at least indirectly through Turkey.
The zone has been the scene of significant fighting in the past few weeks. In the following maps, I have once again used Thomas van Linge’s map of areas of control, and marked the sites of recent clashes with red flames. I excluded clashes in Aleppo proper. I obtained information about these clashes primarily from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
There are four primary hotspots:
- The area along the front lines between ISIS and the rebels, especially around Marea.
- A cluster of villages and a gas factory near the Turkish border on the front lines between ISIS and the rebels.
- Areas on the far edge of the zone where clashes have occurred between rebels and regime positions in the Twelver Shiite cities of Zahraa and Nubl.
- Clashes between the regime and the rebels in the northern outskirts of Aleppo.
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Peace picks August 24-28
1. Promoting Nuclear Safety Cooperation in Northeast Asia | Tuesday, August 25th | 12:00-1:30 | East-West Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | China, Japan, and South Korea all have deep experience with nuclear energy and large commercial nuclear power sectors, and the use of nuclear power is expected to continue to expand, mostly driven by growth in China. There have been calls over the years to increase regional nuclear safety cooperation, and the need for such cooperation has been highlighted by the Fukushima accident in Japan, the fake parts’ certificates scandal in South Korea, and rapid reactor construction in China. The most recent proposal for strengthening regional nuclear safety cooperation came in South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative (NAPCI). NAPCI envisions addressing “soft” issues, including nuclear safety, in order to build deeper regional cooperation on “hard” security issues, similar to the integration process in Europe, and Park has specifically cited the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) as a model for Northeast Asia. Yet, is EURATOM an appropriate model for Northeast Asia? Can NAPCI’s call for regional nuclear safety cooperation actually be realized, and what would effective cooperation look like? Strong, enduring commitment to nuclear safety cooperation by all regional actors will be necessary for NAPCI or any other initiative to succeed. This seminar will examine the current state of nuclear safety cooperation in Northeast Asia and offer a view to the future. Speaker: Dr. James E. Platte, Non-Resident Sasakawa Peace Foundation Fellow, Pacific Forum, CSIS.
2. Peace, Conflict, and the Scale of the Climate Risk Landscape | Tuesday, August 25th | 1:15-2:45 | Webinar Sponsored by the Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Climate risks have the potential to affect every natural and social system, to harm populations, disrupt economic systems, and contribute directly or indirectly to conflicts within and across jurisdictional borders. The Global Climate Security webinar series convenes global thought leaders to seek pathways to improve responses to destabilizing climate risks. The opening webinar will examine the security implications of climate risk and will provide a context for the subsequent place-based and sector-based webinars. This session will address climate risk and security on all fronts from the risk assessment perspective (impacts on governance, economic vitality, national, regional and international security) to potential solutions (risk management, policy, and technical). Participants will hear from experts from the national intelligence and climate impact communities who will address the scale of the risks. The first webinar will set up the remaining webinars, which in turn will address how to respond in four sectors (national & subnational, industry, defense and global policy) based on risk assessment and responses commensurate with the risk. The intent is to examine steps to bridge the risk – policy analysis gap. Speakers include: Joshua Busby, Assistant Professor of Public Affairs, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas, Austin Marc Levy, Deputy Director, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Mathew J. Burrows, Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council, and Nadya T. Bliss, Director, Global Security Initiative, Arizona State University.
3. Iran: What Next After the Nuclear Deal? | Tuesday, August 25th | 6:30-8:30 | Located at OpenGov Hub and sponsored by PS21 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | After last month’s Iran nuclear deal, what next for the Islamic Republic? Will the easing of sanctions bring it more into the diplomatic and international mainstream? Or will the new economic growth create a more assertive Iran that further antagonizes the rest of the region? What will the domestic consequences be of Tehran’s new openness to the outside world? And what, if anything, will happen to the nuclear program? Panelists include: Ariane Tabatabai, Visiting Assistant Professor, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University, Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association, Reza Akbari, Senior Program Officer, Institute for War and Peace Reporting, and Sam Cutler, Policy Advisor, Ferrari & Associates, P.C. Moderator: Negar Razavi, PhD candidate, University of Pennsylvania and Global Fellow, PS21.
4. International Youth Month Breakfast Briefing: “Young Democracy: Engagement as a Deterrent to Radicalization” | Wednesday, August 26th | 9:30 – 11:00 | Located at the Rayburn House Office Building and hosted by IFES | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Join IFES for a breakfast briefing on how involving young people in constructive democratic processes can serve as a potential deterrent to radicalization. This panel will discuss engagement both before and after the age of enfranchisement, with a special emphasis on the political participation of young women and girls. Discussants will offer examples of programmatic work from multiple regions and countries, including Bangladesh, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, Libya, Nepal, Syria and Yemen. This event will be co-hosted by the office of Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (TX-18). Speakers include: Matthew Cohen, Program Officer, Africa, IFES, Jessica Huber, Senior Gender Specialist, IFES, Juliette Schmidt, Deputy Regional Director, Asia and the Pacific, IFES, and Ambar Zobairi, Deputy Regional Director, Middle East and North Africa. Moderated by Augusta Featherston, Youth Adviser, IFES.
5. The Economic Impact of Lifting Sanctions on Iran | Thursday, August 27th | 10:00-11:00 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A new World Bank report assesses that the removal of economic sanctions against Iran could significantly boost economic growth in Iran—including $15 billion in annual oil revenue—while potentially reducing global oil prices as much as 14 percent in the short run, depending on OPEC’s response, and opening up a significant market for exports. Drawing from the report’s systematic and comprehensive analysis, Shantayanan Devarajan will discuss the economic and geopolitical implications of Iran’s potential reentry into the global economy. Carnegie’s Uri Dadush will discuss the economic consequences and Karim Sadjadpour will moderate. Speakers include: Shantayanan Devarajan, chief economist, MENA region, World Bank and Uri Dadush, senior associate, Carnegie Endowment. Moderator, Karim Sadjadpour, senior associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment.
PC: Eddie Grove
6. The New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic | Thursday, August 27th | 10:00 – 11:30 | CSIS | REGISTRATION CLOSED- WATCH ONLINE | Please join us for the release and discussion of a new CSIS Europe Program report, The New Ice Curtain: Russia’s Strategic Reach to the Arctic, which examines Russia’s economic, energy, and security strategies and aspirations in the Arctic, and the evolution of the Kremlin’s Arctic policies over the past decade. On the eve of President Obama’s and Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Anchorage, Alaska where they will convene Arctic and non-Arctic leaders to discuss climate impact and resilience, and global leadership in the Arctic, it is a timely moment to better understand the
largest and most dynamic Arctic actor and to assess whether the Arctic will remain a cooperative region or succumb to geopolitical tensions. Report author Heather A. Conley and project consultant Dr. Marlène Laruelle will examine the significant changes in Russia’s Arctic policies and rhetoric – particularly since President Putin’s return to the Kremlin in 2012 – and offer their insights on Russia’s military posturing in the region, as well as how to develop new collaborative thinking to preserve and protect international Arctic cooperation. New York Times correspondent Steven Lee Myers, who has written about and traveled frequently to the Russian Arctic, will offer his reflections on the report and assess whether the
development of a 21st century “ice curtain” is realistic. The panelists will also preview the upcoming August 31st meeting in Alaska and assess the impact of the potential attendance of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on U.S.-Russian cooperation in the Arctic. Speakers include: Dr. Marlène Laruelle, Research Professor of International Affairs, George Washington University and Steven Lee Myers, Correspondent, The New York Times. Introduced and moderated by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic, CSIS Europe Program.
7. A Normal Nuclear Pakistan | Thursday, August 27th | 12:30-2:00 | Stimson | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A commercial pathway for Pakistan to join the mainstream in the global nuclear order is highly unlikely. Pakistan’s leaders must therefore consider nuclear weapon-related initiatives that could facilitate mainstreaming, while also strengthening nonproliferation norms, bolstering global disarmament hopes, and setting the bar higher for new entrants into the Nuclear Suppliers Group. This presentation will discuss a new report by the Stimson Center and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “A Normal Nuclear Pakistan,” co-written by Toby Dalton (Co-Founder and Senior Associate, Stimson) and Michael Krepon (Co-Director of the Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace). The report takes a hard look at Pakistan’s nuclear weapon-related programs and its ambitions to be viewed as a normal state possessing advanced nuclear technologies.
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დავითი and Голиаф (David and Goliath)
On Wednesday, USIP hosted a talk by the Defense Minister of Georgia, Tinatin Khidasheli, entitled Seeking Security: Georgia Between Russia and ISIS. William B. Taylor, Executive Vice President, USIP, moderated. Khidasheli made a forceful argument that NATO membership or at least a path to NATO membership for Georgia would help deter Russia and maintain NATO credibility.
In his introductory remarks, Taylor noted that Georgia is a strong US ally that has demonstrated its military and diplomatic capabilities. Georgia is committed to integration with the West and NATO.
Khidasheli said Georgia proves success for a former Soviet Socialist Republic is possible without Russia in charge. This is why Russia fights everything they do. Putin is trying to recover from the weakness of the Yeltsin era. He won’t let any country in Russia’s immediate neighborhood have a say without Russia’s permission.
The European Neighborhood’s Eastern Partnership started with six countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. However, at the 2015 Riga Summit, only Georgia was fully present. This was disappointing.
Khidasheli cited two motives for her trip to DC:
- To strengthen Georgia’s partnership with the US and achieve more tangible results and military cooperation.
- To seek advice on Georgia’s path to NATO membership.
NATO needs Georgia more than Georgia needs NATO, she said, in order to maintain its mission and credibility. The Alliance has been talking for years about its commitment to partners and its open-door policy. It must prove it is still a courageous organization. Some argue that expanding NATO will force Russia to act, but after NATO made it clear in 2008 that it wasn’t expanding, Russia invaded South Ossetia. By 2009, the West viewed Russia as a partner again, but Russia’s actions in Ukraine made it clear that is not true.
As soon as the Riga summit ended in disappointment, Russia started actions in Georgia. There are daily Russian movements on the artificial border with South Ossetia. The Russians sometimes advance up to a kilometer or two. Georgia won’t be provoked and won’t allow war on its territory. The checkpoints that Russia has marked are now just .5 km from Georgia’s main East-West highway. Is Russia targeting it or trying to distract Georgia?
NATO will hold its Warsaw Summit in July 2016. Georgia will hold parliamentary elections in October 2016. A bad outcome at Warsaw won’t make Khidasheli’s voters fall in love with Russia, but it could decrease their turnout, leading to a more pro-Russian parliament. The situation in Ukraine is adding to doubts about Georgia’s integration into NATO and the EU. There are two possible outcomes of the Warsaw summit:
- NATO allows Russia a veto over new members, rejects expansion and cedes additional areas to Russian dominance.
- NATO pursues enlargement, sending a clear message to Russia that partners matter as much as members.
NATO brings peace. It is the only reason the Baltics are currently safe. The current situation won’t deter Russia. The world hasn’t been able to stop the war in Ukraine.
The dominant argument from the Kremlin now favors a strong Russia. Putin has no trouble presenting the West as the enemy. But sanctions alone against Russia won’t help and will play into Putin’s “evil West” narrative. The West needs to understand that Russia is a country where people ate rats and cats in World War 2 and still won. Western notions of hardship and happiness aren’t relevant there.
Khidasheli recognizes that a realistic outcome of the Warsaw Summit won’t be NATO membership but an intermediate step towards membership. Georgia wants a statement that it is on a membership track.
While Georgia recently acquired an air defense system from France, Khidasheli did not specify how Tbilisi plans to deter Moscow or draw red lines. Georgia will make decisions about whether to shoot down a Russian plane violating Georgian airspace based on the threat level. With respect to Russia’s creeping annexation policies, Khidasheli reiterated that Georgia won’t be provoked. Georgia will not make a decision regarding countering Russia without its partners.
Russia is trying to use soft power to influence Georgia through NGOs and the media. There are political parties that openly align with Russia, including a former parliamentary speaker.
Khidasheli also spoke briefly about the problem of ISIS recruitment in Georgia, especially in the Pankisi Gorge. This poses a great danger. Georgia has failed to pay enough attention to the problems in this region. More integration, education and targeted employment programs are needed to decrease the feelings of isolation and abandonment among locals. The government must also examine other areas of Georgia where the demographics suggest future problems and address those issues now.
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Peace picks August 17-21
1. The Defense Economy and American Prosperity | Monday, August 17th | 11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | At just over 3 percent of gross domestic product, U.S. military spending totals more than $600 billion annually. A number of recent developments and long-term trends, however-including sequestration and contractor consolidation-threaten the health of the U.S. national security industrial base. The American defense industry is being squeezed on multiple fronts, but just how important is the defense sector to the overall strength of the American economy? Do specific cities or regions have more to worry about than others should defense spending continue to decline? What impact does defense spending have on regional and national job creation and technology innovation? On August 17, the Foreign Policy and Economic Studies programs at Brookings will host a discussion of the American economy and the role that defense industry could play in the nation’s continued recovery and economic health. Panelists include Ben S. Bernanke, Brookings distinguished fellow in residence, and Mark Muro, senior fellow and policy director of the Metropolitan Policy Program. Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, will also participate and moderate the session. Following discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.
2. Assessing Japan-Republic of Korea Relations after Prime Minister Abe’s Anniversary Statement | Tuesday, August 18th | 10:00-11:30 | The Heritage Foundation | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s statement commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II has the potential to either repair or further impair Tokyo’s current strained bilateral relations with Seoul. In recent months, both countries have endeavored to repair the relationship by addressing and compartmentalizing historic issues. But real progress on the nascent rapprochement initiative remains dependent on Abe’s anniversary statement and President Park Geun-hye’s response. Strained relations between two critically important allies is of grave concern to Washington since it hinders U.S. security interests in Asia and constrains effective integrated responses to the North Korean military threat. Questions remain over what role the U.S. can play in helping Japan and the Republic of Korea achieve reconciliation. Speakers include: Michael J. Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS, and Associate Professor, Georgetown, Evans J.R. Revere, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings and Sheila A. Smith, Senior Fellow for Japan Studies, CFR. Host: Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow, Northeast Asia, Heritage.
3. Examining Arctic Opportunities and Capabilities: Does the U.S. Have the Infrastructure, Ships and Equipment Required? | Tuesday, August 18th | 1:30-3:30 | The Heritage Foundation | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On April 24, 2015 the United States began a two-year term as Chairman of the Arctic Council. The Council is composed of eight Member States: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the U.S. Clearly, the capabilities of these eight countries to operate in the Arctic differ quite significantly. As Arctic opportunities arise, so, too, has the interest of an increasing number of non-Arctic countries. Twelve countries have been deemed Arctic Council “Observers:” the People’s Republic of
China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain. Several of these “Observers” are also actively developing and advancing their potential Arctic operations capability. The United States, under its Chairmanship over the next 20 months, will have numerous policy questions worthy of examination and assessment. Can any Arctic policy be sustained without enduring U.S. capabilities? Does change in the Arctic region encourage other countries to become more actively operational in the area? While the U.S. has the capability to operate around much of the globe, does
it really have a robust ability to be a presence in the Arctic? How might the U.S. better operate side-by-side with Arctic allies? Are Arctic Council “Observer” nations already more capable of Arctic operations than the U.S.? Join us for a most timely and important discussion. Keynote speaker: Admiral Robert J. Papp, Jr., USCG (Ret.), Special Representative for the Arctic, U.S. Department of State. Host: James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., Vice President, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, and the E. W. Richardson Fellow, The Heritage Foundation. Other speakers include: H.E. Geir
Haarde, Ambassador of Iceland to the United States and former Prime Minister, Isaac Edwards, Senior Counsel for Chairman Murkowski, U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, and Luke Coffey, Margaret Thatcher Fellow, Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, The Heritage Foundation. Moderator: James E. Dean, Manager, International and Diplomatic Programs, The Heritage Foundation.
4. China’s Missiles and the Implications for the United States |Wednesday, August 19th | 10:00 – 11:30 | Hudson Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | While China’s ongoing island-building in the South China Sea has garnered headlines, Beijing has quietly continued a ballistic missile modernization program that increasingly threatens U.S. and allied naval vessels—and challenges existing U.S. and allied ballistic missile defense capabilities. The United States is particularly concerned about the development of the DF-21 “carrier killer” that is designed to target U.S. aircraft carriers operating in the Western Pacific. Additionally, the commander of the U.S. Northern Command, Admiral Gortney, confirmed in April that China has deployed three ballistic missile submarines capable of striking the U.S. homeland. On August 19th, Hudson Institute will host five noted experts for a discussion of China’s expanding missile arsenal and the role of that arsenal in Beijing’s broader strategic objectives. Trey Obering, Dean Cheng, Mark Schneider, and Bryan Clark will join Hudson Adjunct Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs to analyze China’s military capabilities, national strategy, and possible U.S. responses. Speaker: Henry A. “Trey” Obering III, Executive Vice President, Booz Allen Hamilton. Panelists include: Dean Cheng, Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation, Mark Schneider, Senior Analyst, National Institute for Public Policy, and Bryan Clark, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Moderator: Rebeccah Heinrichs, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute.
5. Seeking Security: Georgia Between Russia and ISIS | Wednesday, August 19th | 3:00 – 4:00 | USIP | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As world headlines focus elsewhere, international security remains at risk in Georgia: Russian troops last month continued a creeping seizure of new Georgian territory, including part of a strategic pipeline. ISIS is recruiting fighters throughout the Caucasus for its war in Syria. Georgian Defense Minister Tinatin Khidasheli, in Washington to meet with top U.S. officials, will make her remarks at USIP August 19. She will discuss how her country is navigating regional security threats that have deepened in the 18 months since Russia attacked Ukraine.
6. US-Israeli Relations After the Iran Deal | Wednesday, August 19th | 6:30-8:30 | Located at Thomson Reuters but sponsored by PS21 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | After July’s historic nuclear deal between the P5+1 great powers and Iran, what is next for relations between the United States and Israel? Moderator: Warren Stroble, Reuters DC diplomatic editor. Panelists: Alexandria Paolozzi, Senate Legislative
Director and Issue Specialist on Israel for Concerned Women for America (CWA). She visited Israel in September 2014 on a Millennial Leaders tour. She has organized Capitol Hill panels on religious freedom in the Middle East, rallies and demonstrations in support of Israel, and has lobbied on pro-Israel policies in the United States Senate. Dr. Guy Ziv is an assistant professor at American University’s School of International Service (SIS), where he teaches courses on U.S. foreign policy, the Middle East, and international negotiations. He is the author of the Why Hawks Become Doves: Shimon Peres and Foreign Policy Change in Israel. He is founder and director of the Israel National Security Project (INSP), a repository of statements by Israeli security experts concerning the strategic imperative of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ari Ratner is a former State Department official and current PS21 board member.
7. Cyber Risk Wednesday: Hacks, Attacks, and What America Can Do about It | Wednesday, August 19th | 4:00-5:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Two months ago, the OPM discovered the biggest breach of US government data in history, described by many as the long-feared “Cyber 9/11”, exposing sensitive information on millions of Americans. While the Obama administration has refrained from publicly attributing the attack, many officials have privately pointed the finger at China. In July, hackers penetrated the Joint Chiefs of Staff email network in what has been described as the “most sophisticated” cyber breach in the history of the US military. Although the investigation is still underway, suspicion has quickly fallen on Russia. And just days ago, news broke about Chinese cyber spies having had access to the private emails of top US officials since at least 2010. In light of the unprecedented scale and scope of these recent data breaches, the Obama administration faces difficult questions: Does political cyber espionage warrant retaliation? Would retaliating effectively deter US cyber adversaries? Or would it further escalate the conflict, especially as the United States itself has been caught spying on other nation states? To answer these questions and suggest a way forward for the US government, this moderated panel discussion brings together recognized cybersecurity and espionage experts Siobhan Gorman, Director at Brunswick’s Washington, DC office; Jason Healey, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative and Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs; and Robert Knake, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow for Cyber Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.
8. Taiwan’s China Tangle | Thursday, August 20th | 2:30 pm – 4:00 pm | Stimson | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Taiwan was a symbol of “Free China” during the Cold War era. Democratization and the rise of local identity after the 1990s transformed the nature of the society into an indigenous regime. Under the double pressure of globalization and the rise of China, Taiwan is searching for a new route to cope with increasing domestic and international challenges. This presentation by Stimson’s Visiting Fellow Dr. Tse-Kang Leng will discuss the impact of the “China factor” on Taiwan public opinion toward cross-Strait relations, Taiwan’s economic links with the Mainland, and Taiwan’s strategic positon in a globalizing world. Speaker: Dr. Tse-Kang Leng, Visiting Fellow, East Asia Program, Stimson Center, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science of Academia Sinica (IPSAS), and Professor of Political Science, National Chengchi University. Moderator: Alan D. Romberg, Distinguished Fellow and Director of the East Asia Program, Stimson.
9. A New Kind of Conflict: Cyber-Security on the Korean Peninsula | Thursday, August 20th | 3:00-5:30 | SAIS- The Bernstein-Offit Building, Room 500 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | ‘A New Kind of Conflict’ is a simulation exploring a cyber-security incident between North and South Korea, with the goal of highlighting the gaps between modern capabilities and international legal frameworks designed to combat cyber-crime. Networking reception with food and drink will follow. Event starts at 3pm, check-in begins at 2:45pm. Seating is limited.
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