Category: Jordanna Yochai
Peace Picks | July 13 – July 17, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- COVID-19 in the Middle East: An Opportunity to Improve Public Health? | July 13, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed fault lines in public health systems in the Middle East, where public health institutions vary widely. In Gulf states, citizens receive high quality health care, but the same is not true of foreign worker populations. Middle income countries in the region offer good health services to those who can afford them, while those who cannot have less or no access. In countries like Yemen and in Syria’s worn torn towns, nothing resembling a functioning health system, public or private, exists. The difficulty of supplying health services to refugees and displaced persons presents yet more difficulties. All this is not new, but the COVID crisis has afforded an opportunity to examine how access to health care plays out in a crisis. More importantly, the crisis can help guide domestic policymakers and international partners toward immediate and longer-term actions to improve public health delivery and prepare for the next crisis.
The Rafik Hariri Center and the United Nations Development Program’s Regional Bureau for Arab States are pleased to co-host a virtual discussion with experts who will not only discuss why the response to the pandemic has met with varying degrees of success, but will also address how policymakers and other stakeholders can better confront public health challenges of all kinds.
Speakers:
Dr. Adel Abdellatif: Deputy Regional Director, Regional Bureau for Arab States, United Nations Development Program
Dr. Lina AbiRafeh: Executive Director, Arab Institute for Women
Dr. Ali Mokdad: Director of Middle Eastern Initiatives and Professor of Global Health, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington - The United States, Russia, and China in the Time of Pandemic | July 13, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The United States’ unipolar moment in the world—if it ever truly existed—is long gone. Instead the United States confronts a rising China and resentful Russia, both determined to check, if not roll back, U.S. influence regionally and globally. The pandemic will reinforce these trends and likely usher in a period of even greater competition and tension.
How should the United States respond to overt and covert challenges from Moscow and Beijing? And how important is growing strategic China-Russia cooperation on economic and security in this equation? Competition and tension seem all but inevitable, pushed forward by the domestic drivers of foreign policy. But are there prospects for détente or even meaningful episodic cooperation between the United States, China, and Russia on the issues that divide them?
Speakers:
Evan A Feigenbaum: Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Eugene Rumer: Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment
Susan Thornton: Senior Fellow, Yale Law School
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment - COVID-19’s Economic Impact on Women | July 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
COVID-19 is a crisis like no other – and it is having a calamitous effect on women’s economic well-being. Please join the Atlantic Council for a conversation on how the coronavirus is disproportionately impacting women’s earning and income and worsening economic inequality around the world. Our experts will look at how COVID-19 is devastating women’s employment and entrepreneurship, as well exacerbating workplace and household challenges such as education, wage gaps, informality, childcare and domestic violence. During the panel the experts will discuss how policy options or business practices could mitigate these adverse consequences and promote greater gender equality as nations recover and rebuild.
Speakers:
Gina E. Wood (Welcoming Remarks): Vice President, Foundational & Institutional Giving, Atlantic Council
Raj Kumar (Moderator): President & Editor-in-Chief, Devex
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Nicole Goldin: Senior Fellow, Global Business & Economics PRogram, Atlantic Council
Henriette Kolb: Head, Gender Secretariat, International Finance Corporation, World Bank - Status and Priorities for Lebanon’s Political Transition | July 14, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon is on the brink of collapse due to its domestic economic and political crises, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Another failed state in the Middle East would negatively impact strategic US interests. Lebanon requires a thorough reorientation towards stability and renewed socio-economic sustainability, which entails fundamental domestic reforms and targeted international support led by the US. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) are pleased to co-host the public launch of a joint policy paper, Recommendations for a Sustainable Bilateral Relationship.
What are the strategic interests the US has in Lebanon’s stability, and how can the US support Lebanese prosperity? Is the Lebanese government’s new financial recovery plan sufficient for the US to initiate support for the government? In what ways can the US best support a strong future for Lebanon?
Speakers:
Ambassador Edward Gabriel (Co-Moderator): President & CEO, American Task Force for Lebanon
Paul Salem (Co-Moderator): President, Middle East Institute
Jean AbiNader: Policy Director, American Task Force for Lebanon
Congressman Darin LaHood: U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’ 18th District
Paul Raphael: Founding Chair, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East & Africa, United States Institute of Peace - Election Integrity & Security in the Era of COVID-19 | July 17, 2020 | 2:00 – 4:15 PM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The threats that disinformation and foreign interference in U.S. elections pose are not new phenomena. In 2016, Russian interference exposed critical vulnerabilities in the United States’ digital election infrastructure, and its information operations sowed political divisions across America. Now, modifications to democratic processes due to the coronavirus pandemic make the task of safeguarding the integrity and security of the 2020 presidential election even more crucial.
How will inevitable adjustments to voting practices, due to COVID-19, affect the security of U.S. elections? What measures should we pursue to dissuade our adversaries from attempting to interfere? Are we adequately prepared to counter new tactics, techniques, and procedures they might employ? And what can the federal government do to ensure that every state and county has the means to conduct a fair and secure election?
Speakers:
Keynote
Christopher C. Krebs: Director, Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Panel 1: Safeguarding Election Security
Fiona Hill (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution
David Becker: Executive Director, Center for Election Innovation & Research, Brookings Institution
Mark Harvey: Former Special Assistant to the President & Senior Director for Resilience Policy, National Security Council
Susan Hennessey: Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Panel 2: Adapting to New Disinformation Tactics
Chris Meserole (Moderator): Deputy Director, Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, Brookings Institution
David Agranovich: Global Threat Disruption Lead, Facebook
Alina Polyakova: President & CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, Brookings Institution
Laura Rosenberger: Senior Fellow & Director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Gavin Wilde: Senior Analyst, Department of Defense
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The Palestinian State at Risk
On May 28, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his intention to annex portions of the West Bank. Netanyahu’s announcement sparked intense debate about whether peace in the form of a two-state solution remains possible. In the eyes of many observers, annexation is the nail in the coffin of a dilapidated Oslo Process. On July 1, the proposed annexation date, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a livestream entitled The Way Forward for Palestine: A Conversation with Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh. The names and affiliations of all speakers are listed below. Since this event, Netanyahu has hesitated. No new annexation has yet occurred.
Mohammad Shtayyeh: Prime Minister, Palestinian National Authority
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
Zaha Hassan: Visiting Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
The annexation plan was drafted by the Trump Administration and unveiled in January 2020. In brief, it sanctioned the Israeli annexation of up to 30% of the West Bank. The Trump-Netanyahu plan was not well received, and it triggered local, regional, and international objections. The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) firmly rejected annexation and vowed to end all cooperation with Israel. Jordan opposed annexation on the basis that it posed an existential threat to Jordanian security, and most other Arab states opposed it on moral grounds. The European Union (EU) warned that EU-Israel relations would be negatively impacted by annexation.
Implications of Annexation
The immediate consequences of annexation would be dramatic. According to Shtayyeh, annexation will hinder the PNA’s efforts to generate the infrastructure, socio-political institutions, and state capacity necessary for statehood. If the PNA is poorly equipped for self-government, the national liberation movement will fail.
Annexation also has the potential to derail the peace process. Shtayyeh argues that annexation “erodes the geographic base of the eventual Palestinian state.” If annexation occurs, Israel will control large swaths of territory claimed by Palestinians, and it will become difficult for Palestinians to win back control in future negotiations. In Muasher’s eyes, annexation poses an existential threat to the realization of a two-state solution; if anything, annexation pushes the conflict toward a so-called “one state reality,” in which Palestinians and Israelis do not enjoy equal protection under the law.
According to Shtayyeh, July 1 would not be the first instance of Israeli annexation. In his opinion, Israel has engaged in a “creeping annexation” of the Palestinian territories since 1967. Shtayyeh argues that settlement construction and land expropriation effectively constitute annexation.
The Future of Palestine
Shtayyeh is not hopeful about the prospect of peace with Israel in light of the planned annexation. In response to a question, he noted that the debate within Israel is no longer about whether to annex but how much and what to annex. Nevertheless, Shtayyeh resisted Muasher’s various attempts to get him to renege on his support for a two-state solution. He repeatedly affirmed the PNA’s commitment to a two-state solution.
The PNA’s goal is the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital and pre-1967 borders. To accomplish this, Shtayyeh believes that there must be incremental expansion of Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank, until the vast majority of the territory is considered Area A and only “final status” issues remain.
Citing the history of failed negotiations and the United States’ long standing relationship with Israel, Shtayyeh argues that a new framework for negotiations is necessary. He and the PNA believe that the most appropriate course of action is multilateral negotiation, facilitated by the Quartet (European Union, United Nations, United States, Russia).
To watch the Carnegie Endowment’s livestream in full, click here.
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A Tale of Two Refugee Groups…
In light of a recent Amnesty International claim that refugee camps “will become new epicenters” of the coronavirus, the Wilson Center hosted a webcast entitled Refugees and COVID-19 on June 24. The webcast examined the effect of coronavirus on two distinct refugee groups: the Rohingya and Syrians. Featured speakers included humanitarian leaders, Asia experts, and Middle East experts. Speakers’ names and affiliations are listed below.
Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Manager, Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Manzoor Hasan: Executive Director, Center for Peace & Security, BRAC University
Omar Kadkoy: Policy Analyst, Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey
Matthew Reynolds: Regional Representative for the United States of America & the Caribbean, UNHCR
Jennifer Poidatz: Vice President for Humanitarian Response, Catholic Relief Services
Background & Context
The Rohingya are an Indo-Aryan ethnic group, native to Rakhine State, Myanmar (Burma). They have suffered decades of repression at the hands of the Burmese government. Tensions escalated in 2017, when the Burmese military launched a violent campaign against the state’s Rohingya population. This particular campaign is infamous for the military’s perpetration of mass atrocity crimes. Approximately one million Rohingya now reside in refugee camps in Bangladesh.
Unlike the Rohingya, Syrian refugees span different ethnic and religious sects. They are citizens or permanent residents of Syria, who have fled or become displaced in the nine years since the onset of the Syrian Civil War. There are approximately 6.6 million Syrian refugees worldwide, 5.5 million of whom live in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.
Excepting the fact that they have each been the subject of mass atrocity crimes, Rohingya and Syrian refugees are largely dissimilar. According to Reynolds, the Rohingya fit a “classic” model for refugee populations. Rohingya almost exclusively reside in densely-populated refugee camps, isolated from the citizens of their host country. In comparison, Kadkoy put the percentage of Syrian refugees in refugee camps at 2%. That is to say: more than 90% of Syrian refugees reside in urban areas, alongside the citizens of their host countries. Accordingly, Rohingya and Syrian experiences with coronavirus differ dramatically.
COVID-19 & the Rohingya
Due to their relative isolation, the Rohingya have had few encounters with COVID-19. According to Reynolds and the UNHCR, there are only 45 documented cases in the refugee camps, and fewer than 5 Rohingya have died of coronavirus. Even so, COVID-19 presents unique challenges. For one, the pandemic poses a threat to the Rohingya’s economic well-being. Because the refugees are so isolated from the Bangladeshi mainstream, many rely on aid to survive. Hasan estimates nearly half have no income to supplement the aid that they receive, monetary or otherwise, from NGOs. Because aid delivery has been disrupted, many Rohingya are at risk of falling into debt.
Moreover, Hasan argues that there is widespread distrust. Many Rohingya are skeptical of coronavirus testing and treatment; they are even hesitant to schedule medical appointments. Hasan believes that this trust deficit can be ameliorated through the provision of 4G Internet and the implementation of local trust-building measures. Finally, and critically, the population density of the refugee camps renders the Rohingya ill-prepared should coronavirus appear. Social-distancing is virtually impossible, according to Reynolds, and the Rohingya do not have enough Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) to effectively combat the virus’ spread. The Rohingya are an incredibly vulnerable population; if/when coronavirus appears, they are sitting ducks.
COVID-19 & Syrians
Syrian refugees, by comparison, have been afflicted with the Coronavirus in relatively high numbers. They are overwhelmingly poor and exist on the margins of urban society; when coronavirus appeared, Syrian refugees were hit first and hardest. According to Kadkoy, Syrian refugees in Turkey are struggling to cope with the economic standstill brought on by the pandemic. Because refugees generally work in informal labor markets, their labor is perceived as disposable, and they have lost jobs at a rate four times higher than Turkish citizens. Even Syrians who retained their jobs have reported decreases in wages. Refugees’ health and financial security are both tenuous. Without relief, aid, or intervention, the situation is unlikely to change.
To watch the Wilson Center’s webcast in full, please click here.
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Peace Picks | July 6 – 10
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Online Event: CSIS Debate Series: Great Power Competition | July 7, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) | Register Here
Since the start of the Trump Administration, the United States has identified strategic competition with China and Russia as a core objective in sub-Saharan Africa. In the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and President Trump’s Africa Strategy, the U.S. government committed itself to counter threats posed by its global rivalries. In December 2018, then-National Security Adviser John Bolton claimed Beijing and Moscow’s activities “stunt economic growth in Africa; threaten the financial independence of African nations; inhibit opportunities for U.S. investment; interfere with U.S. military operations; and pose a significant threat to U.S. national security interests.”
In its fifth and final debate, the CSIS Africa Program asks former U.S. policymakers and African leaders if great power competition is the most constructive framework for formulating and implementing U.S. policies in sub-Saharan Africa. Does it promote stability, prosperity, independence, and security on the African continent? What are the opportunities and risks embedded in this concept? Does it effectively incorporate African perspectives and agency? And how does it evolve during a global pandemic?
Speakers:
Dr. Oby Ezekwesili: Public Policy Analyst & Senior Economic Advisor, Africa Economic Development Policy Initiative
Ken Ofori-Atta: Minister for Finance & Economic Planning, Ghana; Co-Founder, Databank Group
Gayle Smith: President & CEO, ONE Campaign
Juan Zarate: Senior Adviser, CSIS; Chairman & Co-Founder, Financial Integrity Network
Judd Devermont: Director, CSIS Africa Program - Israel’s Growing Ties With the Gulf Arab States | July 7, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Once thought to be irreconcilable adversaries, Israel and the Gulf states have quietly grown closer in recent years. Drawing the two camps together is a slew of security, political, and economic interests that in light of changing regional geopolitics, is now out from under the table. Yet the unresolved Palestinian issue as well as limited ties in a number of sectors pose barriers to normalization.
In their just-launched issue brief Israel’s growing Ties With the Gulf Arab States (PDF coming soon), Jerusalem-based journalist Jonathan Ferziger and National Defense University Professor Gawdat Bahgat trace the remarkable evolution of these relationships in recent years. Joining them to discuss suggestions for policymakers are Anne W. Patterson, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs,and Marc J. Sievers, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and former US Ambassador to Oman.
Speakers:
Dr. Gawdat Baghat: Professor of National Security Affairs, National Defense University
Jonathan Ferziger: Former Chief Political Reporter for Israeli and Palestinian Affairs, Bloomberg News
Ambassador Anne W. Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Ambassador Mark J. Sievers: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council - The Scramble for Libya: A Globalized Civil War at Tipping Point | July 8, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:45 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
In the wake of recent battlefield developments in Libya, regional and global powers are maneuvering for influence and supremacy, with far-reaching implications for Libyan sovereignty, stability, and cohesion. What are the interests and goals of these interveners and what prospects remain for peaceful settlement? How have these states weaponized media narratives to augment their military meddling, and what is the effect both inside Libya and abroad?
A distinguished panel of scholars will offer insights into Russian, Turkish, Emirati, Egyptian, and French roles, as well as Libyan perspectives on foreign actors.
Speakers:
Dmitri Trenin: Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Sinan Ulgin: Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Jalel Harchaoui: Research Fellow, Conflict Research Unit, Clingendael Institute
Khadeja Ramali: Libyan Researcher (Specialty: Social Media Analysis)
Frederic Wehrey: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Congressional Perspectives on US-China Relations | July 8, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM EST | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register Here
The U.S.-China relationship is having an increasingly profound impact on the global economy and plays a crucial role in influencing the international order. The House of Representatives’ bipartisan U.S.-China Working Group provides a platform for frank and open discussions and educates members of Congress and their staff. These congressional perspectives toward China have influence over U.S. policy and the bilateral relationship, particularly regarding oversight of the global coronavirus pandemic, implementation of phase one of the U.S.-China trade agreement, and Beijing’s imposition of a controversial new national security law in Hong Kong.
Join USIP as we host the co-chairs of the U.S.-China Working Group, Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), for a conversation that explores key issues facing the U.S.-China relationship, shifting views in Congress on the topic, and the role of Congress in managing rising tensions and facilitating engagement between the two countries.
Speakers:
Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA): U.S. Representative from Washington
Representative Darin LaHood (R-IL): U.S. Representative from Illinois
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg: President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace - Information in Iran: How Recent Global Events Are Used to Shape & Skew Reality | July 9, 2020 | 9:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
While there has been significant attention given to foreign influence operations by state-actors like Iran, far less has been given to how global events shape—and skew—the reality depicted by the Iranian regime to the Iranian people. Over the past months, Iran has faced new challenges and opportunities in the information landscape – domestically, regionally, and internationally.
Iran has been especially hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been exacerbated by heavy-handed censorship about the threat of the disease and the government’s response. The situation has been compounded by an influx of general health misinformation about coronavirus that proved fatal to hundreds of Iranian citizens.
Across the Middle East, COVID-19 is the latest topic in a long-running contest of narratives between regional adversaries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The competition is not new, but the topics certainly change with the news.
The Iranian regime has also attempted to shift attention toward other country’s shortcoming in responding to COVID-19 and capitalize on unrest elsewhere, especially racial justice protests over the killing of George Floyd in the United States. This is the latest in an effort not to proactively push propaganda with a focus on domestic control in the face of Iran’s own ongoing protest movement and international competition against adversarial nations.
This digital panel discussion will examine Iran’s information environment in the face of the latest global developments. This event, hosted by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab and Middle East Program, will provide an overview of these overlapping information conflicts.
Speakers:
Emerson T. Brooking: Resident Fellow, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council
Holly Dagres: Non-Resident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Simin Kargar: Non-Resident Fellow, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council
Michael Lipin: Voice of America
Farhad Souzanchi: Director of Research & Media, ASL19
- How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict | July 9, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
Since the start of the Trump era, and as coronavirus has become an “infodemic,” the United States and the Western world have finally begun to wake up to the threat of online warfare and attacks from malign actors. The question no one seems to be able to answer is: what can the West do about it?
Nina Jankowicz, the Disinformation Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program, lays out the path forward in How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict. The book reports from the front lines of the information war in Central and Eastern Europe on five governments’ responses to disinformation campaigns. It journeys into the campaigns the Russian and domestic operatives run, and shows how we can better understand the motivations behind these attacks and how to beat them. Above all, this book shows what is at stake: the future of civil discourse and democracy, and the value of truth itself.
Jankowicz will delve into the case studies in the book and the broader implications of disinformation for democracy in discussion with Asha Rangappa, Senior Lecturer at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and former FBI counterintelligence agent and with Matthew Rojansky, Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute.
Speakers:
Nina Jankowicz: Disinformation Fellow, Wilson Center
Asha Rangappa: Senior Lecturer, Yale University Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute, Wilson Center
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