Category: Josephine Koury
Lebanon near collapse
“While the unprecedented mass demonstrations that began in October 2019 succeeded in pressuring the government of then-prime minister Saad Hariri to resign, they have yet to lead to the radical change that many protestoers were seeking. As Lebanon continues to flatten the coronavirus curve and as the country opens up again, the protest movement is expected to make a comeback, with protesters again voicing demands for an independent judiciary, accountability, early parliamentary elections, and financial reform—among others.” On June 17, 2020, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Center hosted a virtual panel discussion on the Lebanese protests’ resurgence and the prospects for real reform in Lebanon. The discussion featured four speakers:
Maha Yahya: director of the Carnegie Middle East Center
Lara Bitar: founding editor of The Public Source.
Alia Ibrahim: founding partner and chairwoman of Daraj.
Jean Kassir: co-founder and managing editor of Megaphone
Current Crisis
Bitar underscores that for the last thirty years, Lebanon has endured paramount social, economic, and environmental crises. Yahya regards Lebanon’s current situation as the most significant crisis it has faced since the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War.
1. The Lebanese political power sharing model remains on the verge of collapse. Lebanon possesses a “sectarian-confessional governmental system” in which high-ranking offices are reserved for members of specific religious groups. The President must be a Maronite Catholic, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim, the Speaker of the Parliament must be a Shi’a Muslim, and the Deputy Speaker of Parliament must be Eastern Orthodox Christian. This system is based on the last census of the Lebanese population in 1932 and in theory, is intended to deter sectarian conflict and fairly represent the demographic distribution of Lebanon’s recognized religious groups.
2. The Lebanese economic model of banking and tourism has collapsed, and Yahya predicts that there will be an exodus of Lebanon’s remaining middle class professionals.
3. The Lebanese pound has lost 50-60% of its value. The World Bank predicts that poverty in Lebanon could rise to 50% if the economic situation worsens. In addition, the World Bank estimates that unemployment, especially among youth, may sharply rise.
4. The Lebanese government says that Lebanon’s public debt has reached $83 billion. Businesses within Lebanon continue to collapse and in January 2020 alone, it has been estimated that nearly 200,000 Lebanese citizens lost their jobs.
5. COVID-19 lockdowns have highlighted structural inequalities and socio-economic disparities in Lebanon.
Lebanon since the October 17th revolution
Bitar believes that the prominent feelings of euphoria felt by Lebanese citizens at the start of the October 17th (2019) thawra, or revolution, has disappeared and future prospects remain grim. In addition to the nearing financial collapse, Lebanese face the constant prospect of shortages of medical supplies, food, and petrol. Bitar highlights that in the last few weeks, domestic migrant workers have been abandoned on the streets of their consulates in Beirut.
Kassir stresses the increasing role of young Lebanese citizens in political discourse. Kassir believes that young people have traditionally felt alienated by the ways in which politics have been conducted in Lebanon. Since the beginning of the October 17th revolution, Lebanon has witnessed a rise in anti-establishment sentiment among its youth.
Ibrahim underscores the increasing restrictions placed on the independent press in Lebanon since October 17. The Lebanese judiciary has recently allowed the prosecution of those critical on social media of the Lebanese President, Michel Aoun. Going forward, Ibrahim believes that much work must be done to ensure the legal protection of those working in the independent media. In co-founding Megaphone, Kassir attempts to create space in which one can think critically about economic and social issues. Furthermore, Kassir aims to provide a platform for the amplification of the voices of Lebanon’s most marginalized groups. These groups include women, refugees, and migrant workers.
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Peace Picks | June 22-28
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves | June 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Watch Event Here
Algerian officials in the northeastern border area between Algeria and Tunisia continue to permit the cross-border smuggling of petrol and other commodities. In turn, smugglers have participated in the authorities’ efforts to neutralize security threats, even as they continue to engage in the illicit trade. The two ostensibly adversarial parties effectively complement each other. In her new paper, Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves, Algerian political scientist Dalia Ghanem examines such paradoxes and argues that state formation remains an evolving process in the country.
Speakers:
Dalia Ghanem: resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Max Gallien: political scientist at the Institute of Development Studies.
Isabelle Werenfels: senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
- Assessing the Implications of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act | June 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
On June 17, the long-awaited Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act came into force, imposing the most comprehensive set of sanctions against Syria’s Assad regime to date. Aimed principally at preventing further war crimes by preventing any foreign investment into the Syrian regime, the sanctions will almost certainly have a consequential impact on Syria’s politics and economy. As the act comes into force, Syria is already beset by a spiraling economic crisis, the effects of which have generated unusually defiant and persistent anti-regime protests in the Druze-majority governorate of Suwayda and rising levels of discontent within regime-held territories. Southern Syria faces an expanding insurgency, ISIS is slowly resurging in the central desert, Turkey is doubling down on a permanent presence in the northwest and for now, U.S. troops appear to be staying.
How will the Caesar Act’s sanctions be enforced and with what goals in mind? What effect are they likely to have within today’s context? Does a policy of escalating pressure on the Assad regime promise diplomatic progress or humanitarian suffering?
Speakers:
Amb. James F. Jeffrey: Special Representative for Syria and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Rime Allaf: Syrian writer and commentator; board member, The Day After Project
Qutaiba Idlbi: Non-resident scholar, MEI; Syria fellow, International Center for Transitional Justice
Charles Lister (Moderator): Director, Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs, MEI
- U.S. Grand Strategy in the Middle East | June 22, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
While prominent voices in Washington have argued that U.S. interests in the Middle East are dwindling and will require the United States to “do less” there, Jake Sullivan argued in a recent Foreign Affairs article that the United States should be more ambitious using U.S. leverage and diplomacy to promote regional stability.
Speakers:
Jake Sullivan: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Geoeconomics and Strategy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Jon B. Alterman: Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
- Iranian Kurds: Challenges, Existence, and Goals | June 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM | Washington Kurdish Institute | Register Here
With 12 million people, the Iranian Kurds make up the second largest population of the Kurds in the greater Kurdistan. Similar to Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, the Iranian Kurds have been struggling for decades for freedom under the current Iranian regime. The Kurdistan region of Iran (Rojhelat) has the highest rate of political prisoners in the country. The regime’s discriminatory economic policies in Rojhelat have resulted in poverty and poor living conditions for the Kurds, which led many to become border porters known as Kolbars. Hundreds of Kolabrs are victims of the Iranian border guard attacks and executions every year. The dire political, economic, and security situation of Rojhelat continues under the current regime that has been suppressing its citizens on an ethnic and sectarian basis.
As the first founders of the Kurdish nationalism and political parties in greater Kurdistan, the panel will discuss the current situation of the Iranian Kurds and their goals. The panel will also discuss the Iranian Kurdish relations and cooperation with other opposition groups in Iran and potential future understandings.
Speakers:
David L. Phillips: Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights
Arash Salih: Representative of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan to the United States.
Salah Bayaziddi: Representative of the Komala Party to the United States.
Kamran Balnour: Representative of the Kurdistan Democratic Party to the United States
- The World Economy After COVID-19: A Conversation with President Romano Prodi | June 23, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
Join Johns Hopkins SAIS for a conversation with Romano Prodi, Former President of the European Commission (1999-2004); Former Prime Minister of Italy (1996-1998; 2006-2008). The event is moderated by Justin O. Frosini, Adjunct Professor of Constitutional Law, SAIS Europe; Director of the Center for Constitutional Studies and Democratic Development and Associate Professor, Bocconi University.
- The Sunni Religious Establishment of Damascus: When Unification Creates Division | June 24, 2020 | 7:00 AM – 8:00 AM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Watch Event Here
The 2011 uprising in Syria totally transformed the religious establishment in Damascus. The regime sent into exile many prominent, influential religious figures who, forced to work from abroad, formed a religious opposition group called the Syrian Islamic Council. The regime also restructured what remained of the capital’s competing religious institutions. This robbed the religious establishment in Damascus of the financial and administrative independence that had been its key privileges. But it also presented new Sunni clerics from the capital’s hinterland with opportunities to enter the competitive religious arena — as well as posing a major challenge to the SIC, obliged to operate in exile. In her latest paper, The Sunni Religious Establishment of Damascus: When Unification Creates Division, Laila Rifai mentions how the religious sphere in Rural Damascus Governorate is poised to become a political battleground as both the regime and the exiled opposition seek to court a new rising group of religious leaders.
Speakers:
Laila Rifai: writer and researcher, specializing in Syrian religious affairs.
Thomas Pierret: senior researcher at CNRS-IREMAM, Aix-en-Provence.
Muhammed Mounir Al Fakir: fellow at the Omran Centre for Strategic Studies.
- Turkish-Israeli Relations: Prospects for Improved Diplomacy | June 25, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the past decade Israel-Turkey relations have been strained. There have been recent positive signs, however. Israel’s decision not to sign a statement by France, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, and Egypt condemning Turkey’s actions in the eastern Mediterranean and a tweet posted by Israel’s official Twitter account praising its diplomatic relations with Turkey raised hopes. Turkish analysts saw the moves as a sign of both countries’ willingness to cooperate when it comes to eastern Mediterranean energy but tensions remain.
How does Israel and Turkey’s involvement in Syria and increasing opportunities for economic cooperation affect the prospect of improved bilateral relations? How will Israel’s plans for annexation and Turkey’s public support for the Palestinians affect diplomatic relations? Are there enough incentives to normalize Israel-Turkey relations or will the barriers be insurmountable?
Speakers:
Nimrod Goren: Founder and head of Mitvim, The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Karel Valansi: Political columnist, Shalom Newspaper
Gönül Tol: (Moderator): Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- The Broader Implications U.S. Disentanglement from Afghanistan| June 26, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
On 29 February, the United States signed an agreement with the Taliban designed to allow for an orderly withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan by next spring if not sooner. Coming after many months of difficult negotiations, the decision carried a promise from the Taliban to deny to any terrorist group or individual the use of Afghan soil to undertake an attack on the United States or its allies. The accord also carried a Taliban commitment to participate in an intra-Afghan dialogue quickly aimed at a peaceful resolution of the civil conflict. American policy for Afghanistan must be seen as well on a broader canvas of continuing U.S. diplomatic, political and military disengagement regionally. As in Afghanistan, withdrawal leaves unanswered many questions about how American national security interests may be affected, particularly at a time of increased great power competition.
What might be the impact of a full U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan on the course of the civil war and prospects for peace talks? What would the United States do if after departure the Taliban broke the terms of their agreement or threatened the survival of the Afghan state? How would the end of an American military presence affect relations with Pakistan? And is the United States prepared to accede to strongly increased Iranian, Russian, or Chinese influence in Afghanistan and the region?
Javid Ahmad: Nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council
Ronald E. Neumann: President, The American Academy of Diplomacy
J. Alexander Thier: Senior advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Senior fellow and deputy director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
Marvin Weinbaum (Moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
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Iraq under pressure
“While the PMF initially gained widespread popular support among Shias for its role in defeating ISIL, the killing of Suleimani and Muhandis in January and the withdrawal of units associated with Sistani from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in April opened new questions about the future of the PMF and its relationship with both the Iraqi government and Iran.” AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion on June 10 examining the future of the PMF and their relationship with the new Iraqi government. The virtual panel was moderated by Ambassador Douglas A. Sillman and featured three speakers:
Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute Washington
Michael Knights: Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute
Ambassador Rend Al-Rahim: Co-Founder and President, Iraq Foundation
Ambassador Douglas A. Sillman (Moderator): President, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Iraq is under intense pressure on several fronts
Sillman highlighted various key developments that have occurred within the last year in Iraq. These events have had a strong impact on the future of the PMF.
1. Mass demonstrations against widespread corruption and the lack of governmental services brought down the government of Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi in May of 2020.
2. The coronavirus pandemic has increased stress on Iraq’s already fragile healthcare system.
3. There has been a resurgence in attacks conducted by ISIS, which has begun to reorganize and has launched its most complex attacks in years.
4. Oil prices have plummeted. OPEC has cut Iraq’s oil production quota by one million barrels a day. This has sparked a budget crisis.
5. At the end of 2019, competition between the United States and Iran flared up with increased attacks on US forces, an attempt to sack the US Embassy, and the killing of Quds Force Commander Qassim Soleimani and PMF deputy commander Mahdi Al-Muhandis.
6. Mustafa Al-Kadhimi was elected Prime Minister of Iraq in May of 2020.
The PMF are divided and some imperil the government
Knight believes that the fate of the new Iraqi government under Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and efforts to reform the PMF remain intricately intertwined. Furthermore, Knight classifies the present PMF as a state within a state in control of its own foreign policy. Ultimately, the PMF developed as a security force that drew on opposition elements fighting against the US occupation in Iraq. More recently, the PMF has involved itself in Syria and has fought on the side of the Assad regime. Knight believes that a lack of professionalization and reform within the PMF has resulted in ineffectiveness.
Al-Rahim underscores that the PMF itself cannot be regarded as being a homogenous body. To Al-Rahim, the PMF remains divided between those who owe their allegiance to Iran and those who owe their allegiance to Grand Ayatollah Sistani of Iraq. In regard to the Iraqi population at large, Al-Rahim believes that the Sunni and Kurdish populations favor the continuance of US coalition presence in Iraq. Because the PMF has seized political and economic control of the various areas in which these groups reside, overall distrust has emerged along ethno-religious lines. This polarized environment can be regarded as being a conducive to the reemergence of ISIS.
Iran likes it that way
Alfoneh believes that Iran desires to maintain Iraq in what he views as a “permanent state of crisis” that provides Iran with the ability to achieve its own tactical goals on the ground in Iraq. If Iraq were stable, Iran could not interfere in its internal affairs. Alfoneh believes that Iran utilizes various militias separate from the PMF in the interest of maintaining rivalry and competition between groups.
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Peace Picks | June 15 – 20
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- A Conversation with H.E. Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs | June 17, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the second largest Arab economy- with a burgeoning regional role in the Gulf, the Red Sea and North Africa- the United Arab Emirates is facing a range of domestic and regional challenges, but also opportunities, in light of COVID-19 and the drop in global oil prices. Furthermore, the rise in great power competition, particularly the rising role of Russia and China in the Middle East, makes an examination of US – UAE relations that much more timely and important.
To discuss these important issues and more, the Middle East Institute is glad to welcome H.E. Dr. Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. Please join us for this timely discussion moderated by MEI President Paul Salem.
Speakers:
Dr. Paul Salem (Moderator) : President, Middle East Institute
H.E. Dr. Anwar Mohammed Gargash: Cabinet Member and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, United Arab Emirates
- COVID in South Asia: Regional Responses | June 17, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In South Asia, diverse, densely situated, and economically precarious populations add further complexity to fighting the coronavirus pandemic. Measures to limit the virus’s spread have spurred massive economic contraction, disproportionately affecting the region’s most vulnerable populations, while recent steps to re-open economies are fueling a rise in cases and risk overwhelming health and governance systems. The crisis has also exacerbated societal fissures and structural problems, including religious, caste, and ethnic divisions, ineffective communication, and political tensions. Amid compounding challenges, how governments respond to the pandemic will have a lasting impact on the region’s stability and the future of its nearly two billion citizens.
Please join USIP and experts from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka for a discussion on states’ responses to the coronavirus pandemic across the region and what countries can do to maintain and restore their economies, health systems, and citizens’ trust in elected officials.
Speakers:
Amb. Tariq Karim: Former Bangladeshi Ambassador to the U.S.
Amb. Maleeha Lodhi: Former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. and former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.N.
Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu: Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, Sri Lanka
Amb. Arun Singh: Former Indian Ambassador to the U.S.
Tamanna Salikuddin (Moderator): Director, South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Lebanon at a Crossroads: Is Real Reform Possible? | June 17, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, Middle East Center | Watch Event Here
Lebanon remains a highly volatile sociopolitical and economic environment, compounded by a crippling financial crisis, a large protest movement nationwide, increasing tension among political and sectarian factions, and a large presence of Syrian refugees. Its vibrant civil society has played a leading role in pushing for reform to address the significant threats facing the country.
While the unprecedented mass demonstrations that began in October 2019 succeeded in pressuring the government of then-prime minister Saad Hariri to resign, they have yet to lead to the radical change that many protestors are seeking. As Lebanon continues to flatten the coronavirus curve and as the country opens up again, the protest movement is largely expected to make a comeback, with protestors again voicing demands for an independent judiciary, accountability, early parliamentary elections, and financial reform—among others.
Speakers:
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Lara Bitar: Founding editor, The Public Source
Alia Ibrahim: Founding partner and chairwoman, Daraj
Jean Kassir: Co-founder and managing editor, Megaphone
- Egypt Faces the Pandemic: Politics, Rights, and Global Dynamics | June 18, 2020 |10:00 AM – 11:15 AM| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Event Here
In many countries, the pandemic is providing justifications for crackdowns on rights, changes in law, and postponement of elections. What is happening in Egypt? And will the pandemic lead to any changes in its regional and global relationships?
Speakers:
Khaled Mansour: Independent writer and consultant on issues of human rights, humanitarian aid, and development
Mai El-Sadany: Managing director and legal and judicial director, the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
Amr Hamzawy: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Senior Research scholar in the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, Stanford University
- Civil-Military Relations Amid Domestic Crisis | June 18, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The speakers will address the politicization of the U.S. military and urgent issues of civil-military relations in the current environment. With President Trump’s order of the U.S. military and federal law enforcement to Washington DC; the forcible removal of peaceful protestors to secure a photo op with military leaders; and Secretary Esper’s reference to American cities as the “battlespace,” the divide between society and service members has rarely been so stark.
The speakers will also examine the implications of President Trump’s recent actions on U.S. national security, both domestically and abroad. What are the various ways the current situation could play out? What are the medium- and long-term implications on civil-military relations? To what standard must we hold our senior civilian and military officials, as well as our service members?
Speakers:
Eliot A. Cohen: Dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mara Karlin: Executive Director, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Paula Thornhill: Associate Director, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
LTG David Barno (USA, ret.): Senior Fellow and Visiting Professor, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Nora Bensahel: Senior Fellow and Visiting Professor, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
- Webinar—The International Monetary Fund’s COVID-19 challenge: A conversation with Geoffrey Okamoto | June 18, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The coronavirus pandemic has plunged the global economy into its worst recession in the past 90 years and has delivered a severe blow to practically every economy in the world.
At this event, Geoffrey Okamoto, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will discuss how the IMF now views the world economic outlook and how it is adapting its policies to serve best its membership at this challenging time.
Speakers:
Geoffrey Okamoto: First deputy managing director, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Desmond Lachman: Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
- Troubled Waters: the Changing Security Environment in the Black Sea | June 18, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
NATO member states and partners in the Black Sea have entered a new strategic adaptation phase after the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent focus on territorial defense. The last six years have been a challenge in strategic adaptation to new threats and challenges in the Black Sea, an increasingly militarized and volatile security environment. But success in adaptation has been limited by differing threat perceptions among member states, as well as by difficulties integrating Western defense planning. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the challenges facing the Black Sea countries in adapting to the new security environment.
What are the main challenges for NATO member states and partners in the Black Sea region? How have NATO member states Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey adapted to increasing militarization and volatility in the Black Sea? What are the main challenges for NATO partners countries Georgia and Ukraine and how are they progressing in Western security integration? Are there lessons to be learned for NATO defense and strategic adaptation in the Black Sea?
Speakers:
Stephen J. Flanagan: Senior political scientist, RAND Corporation
Thomas-Durell Young: Senior lecturer, Institute for Security Governance, US Naval Postgraduate School and Journal of Defense and Security Analysis
Iulia Joja (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute, Frontier Europe Initiative
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Arab views on Israeli annexation
The Arab Center of Washington DC hosted an online discussion on June 2, 2020 that explored the implications of the recent announcement by Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas that the PA will end all agreements and understandings signed with Israel and the United States. The discussion was moderated by Tamara Kharroub and featured six guest speakers:
Noura Erakat: Human Rights Attorney, Assistant Professor, Rutgers University
Leila Farsakh: Associate Professor and Chair, Political Science Department, University of Massachusetts Boston
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
Rashid Khalidi: Edward Said Professor of Modern Arab Studies, Columbia University, Co-Editor, Journal of Palestine Studies, President, Institute for Palestine Studies-USA
Nasser Al-Kidwa: Chairman of the Board of Directors, Yasser Arafat Foundation, former Palestinian Representative to the United Nations
Raef Zreik: Associate Professor of Law, Ono Academic College, Co-Director of Minerva Center for the Humanities, Tel Aviv University
Tamara Kharroub (Moderator): Assistant Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Current Context
Kharroub highlighted that an Israeli Unity government between Prime Minister Netanyahu and former military chief Gantz was installed in May of 2020. One of the main policies agreed upon by these two parties is annexation of parts of the West Bank. In his coalition agreement with Gantz, Netanyahu was granted the right to proceed with the process of annexation as early as July 1. According to figures collated by the Israeli organization Peace Now, the West Bank is home to nearly 2.7 million Palestinians and 400,000 Israeli settlers. Although extending Israeli sovereignty into parts of the West Bank has been one of Netanyahu’s key campaign promises, Gantz has repeatedly spoken against unilateral annexation.
As a response to this development, PA President Mahmoud Abbas has announced that the PA will end all agreements and understandings with Israel and the United States. This comes following the Trump administration’s January 2020 Middle East Peace Plan that allows for Israeli annexation of settlements within the West Bank and Jordan Valley. To Kharroub, the increasing prospect of Israeli annexation raises various questions:
- Does the prospect of annexation constitute a real game changer in Israeli-Palestinian relations?
- Or, does the prospect of annexation merely signify the culmination of decades of expansionist Israeli policy and international impunity?
- What is the strategic economic and political importance of the proposed areas of annexation?
- The annexation of these territories violates international law. Thus, what are the legal implications?
To Khalidi, the Trump administration has gone beyond what any other American administration has done before. Notably, previous American administrations have allowed the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem while simultaneously maintaining the public face of opposition. Khalidi stresses that unlike previous administrations, the Trump administration has openly endorsed the annexation of Israeli settlements within the West Bank and Jordan Valley.
Likewise, Jahshan finds the Trump administration’s “Peace to Prosperity Plan” to be monumental in terms of the US role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Jahshan believes that this plan significantly differs from previous American attempts and lacks even the semblance of neutrality.
Contrasting perspectives
Al-Kidwa believes that the annexation of areas within the West Bank constitutes a threat to the present international order and accepted modes of state conduct. States possess a legal obligation in accordance with the Geneva conventions to confront settler colonialism. Palestinians must work to refine and redefine their relationship with Israel.
Zreik believes that it remains important to differentiate between the question of sovereignty and the application and enforcement of Israeli law and order. To Zreik, the question of sovereignty remains a question of international law, not local law. Although Israel enforces law and order in the Golan Heights, the international community recognizes sovereignty over the Golan Heights as belonging to Syria. Zreik states that the question of state sovereignty must be decided by the international legal system.
Legal Implications
Erakat states that the annexation of areas within the West Bank violates UN Security Council Resolution 242, the Fourth Geneva Convention, and the UN Charter that provides for the territorial integrity of all people. To Erakat, although there remains an abundance of legal remedies, politics will determine whether Israel will be held legally accountable by the international community.
Political Implications
Farsakh highlights that Arab states have denounced the proposed Israeli annexation. Jordan in particular has remained steadfast in its opposition and has threatened to withdraw the Jordanian-Israeli Peace Accords. However, negative reactions by Arab states will not have much significance because of the high degree of dependence these states have on the United States and their economic relations with Israel. The European Union, Israel’s largest trading partner, has opposed the prospect of annexation and unilateral decision making.
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Peace Picks | June 7 – 14
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- U.S. Diplomacy & Women’s Leadership in the MENA Region | June 8, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:35 AM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
Johns Hopkins SAIS invites you to a discussion with distinguished women involved in U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East and North Africa region as they share their views on women’s leadership in U.S. diplomacy, current U.S. engagement in the region and how this will be affected by COVID-19. The conversation, moderated by Dr. Chiedo Nwankwor, Director of SAIS Women Lead, will also touch upon the challenges these women faced representing the U.S. in the highest foreign policy decision making circles in the MENA region and more.
Speakers:
Anne Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East and US Ambassador to Egypt and Pakistan
Deborah Jones: Former US Ambassador to Libya and Kuwait
Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley: Former US Ambassador to Malta
Robin Raphel: Former Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia and US Ambassador to Tunisia
Kirsten Fontenrose: Director of the Scowcroft Center at the Atlantic Council and Former Director of the Gulf region at the National Security Council
Hafed Al-Ghwell: Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins SAIS Foreign Policy Institute
- The Dilemmas of New Global Disorder | June 9, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
To recognize Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski’s legacy, Johns Hopkins SAIS and its Foreign Policy Institute have established the Zbigniew Brzezinski Initiative, a unique set of academic programs that builds on the school’s strengths as a leading center for training graduate students in international policy and relevant academic research. The Initiative comprises both immediate programming and longer-term plans, which together will equip a new generation of policy experts capable of the authoritative analysis, strategic vision, and active diplomacy that were hallmarks of Dr. Brzezinski’s role as a scholar, policy advisor, and statesman.
Speakers:
Nicholas Kristof: New York Times columnist
Dean Eliot A. Cohen: Dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
Ambassador Mark F. Brzezinski: American Ambassador to Sweden from 2011-2015
- A New Iraqi Government and the Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces | June 10, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
As the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant surged into Iraq in the summer of 2014, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called on Iraqis to volunteer to protect their country. From this initiative emerged the Popular Mobilization Forces, which were largely organized by pro-Iran and Iranian-supported militias.
Subsequent efforts to place these forces under the command of the Iraqi government failed, and many PMF units forged a command relationship with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the PMF deputy commander, and Qassim Soleimani, Iranian Quds Force commander. While the PMF initially gained widespread popular support among Shias for its role in defeating ISIL, the killing of Suleimani and Muhandis in January and the withdrawal of units associated with Sistani from the PMF in April opened new questions about the future of the PMF and its relationship with both the Iraqi government and Iran.
What does the loss of the PMF’s two most influential figures mean for the future leadership of these forces? Will the new Iraqi government be able to establish effective control over the PMF or will Iran continue its operational domination? Will growing popular discontent with the PMF lead to clashes with the Iraqi army and police?
Speakers:
Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute Washington
Michael Knights: Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute
Amb. Rend Al-Rahim: Co-Founder and President, Iraq Foundation
- Webinar: China’s role in the MENA region post-COVID-19 | June 10, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookings | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc across the world, placing great strains on public finances and health systems. The pandemic is likely to create seismic changes in the economic, political, and security dimensions of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as recalibrate its relations with global powers, including China.
Early on in the crisis, MENA energy producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar, sent medical supplies to China, the world’s largest consumer of Middle Eastern crude. As China slowly fought back the virus, it reciprocated by sending supplies to various MENA states, while conducting a public relations campaign in the region. In light of an ineffective U.S. response to the pandemic, China has sought to showcase its governance model and swift response. China’s public outreach and diplomacy during the crisis has aimed to reframe the narrative about its role in the region and globally, amid deepening mistrust and competition with the United States and Europe.
The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend a webinar on China’s role in the MENA region post-COVID-19. The discussion will address the following questions: Within the context of regional and global economic challenges, how will Chinese-MENA relations evolve in the post-COVID-19 era? How can MENA states navigate rising U.S.-China tensions? And, in the long term, can China supplant the roles of the United States and Europe in the region, particularly in the Gulf and North Africa?
Speakers:
Adel Abdel Ghafar: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Doha Center
Degang Sun: Professor, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University
Emilie Tran: Course Coordinator of European Studies-French Stream at the Hong Kong Baptist University
Yahia H. Zoubir: Visiting Fellow-Brookings Doha Center
Zeno Leoni: Teaching Fellow in Challenges to the International Order- King’s College London
- Egypt Faces the Pandemic: Health and Economic Effects | June 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
How hard will Egypt be hit by the pandemic’s health effects? To what extent is its health system meeting the challenge? And how will Egyptians cope with the inescapable difficulties of a global recession, collapse of tourism, and return of many workers from the Gulf?
Speakers:
Ayman Sabae: right to health researcher at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights
Timothy E. Kaldas: independent risk advisor and nonresident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
Michelle Dunne: director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Webinar: Reopening America- Equitably solutions for workers and their families in the COVID-19 era | June 12, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookings | Register Here
As the United States continues to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is clear that reopening the economy will be a phased process dependent upon transmission rates. Social distancing, reduced economic activity, and disruptions in our everyday lives are likely to continue for some time, with profound implications on societal, community, and individual well-being. The disproportionately harmful effects on people of color are already well documented.
As Americans strive to return to work, there are major issues to address regarding health and health care access; disruptions in child care and K-12 education; and income and support for displaced workers, those unable to work due to health conditions, and undocumented and informal workers. Meanwhile, many business owners are struggling both operationally and financially, and are unsure if they can keep their doors open. As these dynamics continue, lawmakers and leaders in the private and social sectors will need to continue to evaluate the role of government and develop creative and equitable policy solutions for the country’s new normal.
On June 12, the Governance Studies and Metropolitan Policy programs at Brookings will cohost a webinar to discuss equitable solutions for workers and their families as the American economy begins to reopen. Speakers will explore how challenges across multiple areas of life, work, and economic activity combine to create a unique moment that requires careful thought and wide-ranging, equity-focused solutions.
Speakers:
John Allen: President, Brookings
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy Program; Director, Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
Annelies Goger: David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program
Anika Goss: Executive Director, Detrit Future City
Martha Ross: Fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program
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