Category: Marc-Andrea Fiorina
1. Tensions with Turkey: A Calleo Series Panel on Turkey and the West | Tuesday, September 4, 2018 | 5:30 pm – 7:00 pm | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Rome Auditorium, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW | Register Here
The SAIS European and Eurasian Studies (EES) Program cordially invites you to our Fall Seminar Series at the Washington campus. In tribute to his many contributions and support, series is named in honor of Professor David P. Calleo, who continues to inspire EES scholars through his research and engagement. View the series schedule and RSVP at https://calleoseminars.eventbrite.com.
Join us Tuesday, September 4, 2018 as we kick off the 2018-2019 academic year with a panel discussion on “Tensions with Turkey: A Calleo Series Panel on Turkey and the West.”
Confirmed speakers include:
Nicholas Danforth – Senior Analyst at Bipartisan Policy Center
Amanda Sloat – Robert Bosch senior fellow, Brookings Institution
Ambassador Eric Edelman – Johns Hopkins SAIS
Lisel Hintz – Assistant Professor of IR and European Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
RSVP and a valid JHU or government-issued ID is required for entry. Appetizers and drinks are served.
2. China’s “War on Terrorism” an the Xinjiang Emergency | Wednesday, September 5, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here
For the last sixteen years, the Chinese Communist Party has been telling the Chinese people and the world at-large that it is waging its own “war on terrorism” in the Uyghur homeland of Xinjiang, known to Uyghurs as “East Turkestan.” Xinjiang has since become the most heavily garrisoned and surveilled part of the People’s Republic of China. As many as one million Uyghurs are now detained in Communist Party “political re-education” camps, where they have been subject to torture, medical maltreatment, and other abuses. Meanwhile, the “stability” of the region has become essential for PRC’s strategic “One Belt, One Road” initiative, and the Communist Party has used its influence around the world to stifle criticism of the human rights emergency in Xinjiang that it has created.
What is at stake for the Chinese Communist Party in Xinjiang? How has the PRC’s conduct and repression in Xinjiang affected its foreign relations, including with Pakistan, the countries of Central Asia, and the Middle East? What do we know about the policy debates among Chinese authorities and the people of China concerning Xinjiang and what, if any, are the dissenting views? What does the PRC’s conduct in Xinjiang tell us about the nature of the Communist Party’s power and the PRC’s ambitions to transform itself into a superpower?
On September 5, Hudson Institute will host a discussion on the PRC’s “war on terrorism.” The panel will include Dr. Michael Clarke, associate professor at the Australian National University; Louisa Greve, director of external affairs for the Uyghur Human Rights Project; Andrew Small, a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund; Sean Roberts, an associate professor at George Washington University; and Rushan Abbas, a former Uyghur Service journalist with Radio Free Asia. The discussion will be moderated by Hudson senior fellow Eric Brown.
3. Securing a Democratic World – A Case for a Democratic Values-Driven U.S. Foreign Policy | Thursday, September 6, 2018 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | Center for American Progress | Register Here
Liberal democracy around the world is under threat. The waves of democratization of the 1980s and 1990s have stalled. Democracies from Hungary to Turkey and Poland to the Philippines are backsliding. Autocracies such as China and Russia are attempting to undermine democracies from within. And here in the United States, democratic institutions face an unprecedented series of threats from the very leaders chosen to safeguard democracy.
It is increasingly clear that the future of U.S. national security and a liberal democratic world depends on America embracing democratic values, locking arms with its democratic allies to stem the rise of authoritarianism, and growing the community of democratic nations. This is the focus of an upcoming Center for American Progress report, “Securing a Democratic World: The Case for a Democratic Values-Driven U.S. Foreign Policy.”
To discuss the state of U.S. support for democracy around the world, the importance of democratic values in foreign policy, and what the United States should do going forward, please join CAP for a conversation with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) will share his perspective on the importance of democratic values in American foreign policy in a keynote address.
Speakers:
Keynote Remarks: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Madeleine K. Albright – former U.S. Secretary of State
Kelly Magsamen – Vice President, National Security and International Policy, Center for American Progress
4. After Elections, What’s Next for Pakistan? | Thursday, September 6, 2018 | 9:30 am – 1:00 pm | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
With the votes now counted and new assembly members sworn in, Pakistan’s July 25th elections have ushered in a change of civilian governments and a new coalition led by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party and its leader Imran Khan. Opposing parties, particularly the previous national incumbent party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, and the Pakistan People’s Party, have challenged the election results with claims of rigging, intimidation, and military influence.
Join USIP on September 6th for two panels that will explore the election results, the factors that influenced them, as well as looking forward towards their implications for the new government – its opportunities, challenges, and the future of Pakistan’s democracy. The first panel will examine the main electoral outcomes, including the role of gender, political parties and opposition forces in the election. The second panel will address the influence of actors outside the formal electoral system, including the role of the judiciary, military, religious parties, and electoral violence dynamics. Speakers will include academic experts and policy professionals. Join the conversation on Twitter with #USIPPakistan.
Agenda
9:30am – 11:00am – Panel 1: Analyzing the Main Electoral Results
- Colin Cookman – Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Sarah Khan – Postgraduate Associate, Yale University
- Mariam Mufti – Assistant Professor, University of Waterloo
- Sahar Shafqat – Professor, St. Mary’s College of Maryland
- Moderator: Jumaina Siddiqui, Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
11:15am – 12:45pm – Panel 2: Analyzing the Non-electoral Factors
- Sahar Khan – Visiting Research Fellow, CATO Institute
- Yasser Kureshi – PhD Candidate, Brandeis University
- Niloufer Siddiqui – Assistant Professor, University of Albany
- Joshua White – Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University
- Moderator: Tamanna Salikuddin, Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
5. The Enablers: How Western Professionals Import Corruption and Strengthen Authoritarianism | Thursday, September 6, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | Hudson Institute | Register Here
As globalization began breaking down divisions between Western elites and their counterparts in the Eastern hemisphere, some American legal, financial, and communications professionals sought new opportunities among clients with fortunes of dubious provenance.But instead of carrying the rule of law into corrupt societies, networking between U.S. professional services providers and kleptocrats linked to authoritarian regimes has undermined American values, democracy, and national security. Some of the most distinguished and influential professions have become importers of dirty money and underhand practices.
On September 6, 2018, join Hudson Institute’s Kleptocracy Initiative for a discussion of “The Enablers: How Western Professionals Import Corruption and Strengthen Authoritarianism,” a new report examining what policies are needed to close the loopholes commonly exploited by foreign kleptocrats and their professional facilitators in the United States.
Speakers:
Charles Davidson – Executive Director, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson Institute; Publisher, The American Interest
Elise Bean – Former Staff Director and Chief Counsel, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, U.S. Senate
Mark Hays – Anti-Money Laundering Campaign Leader, Global Witness
Ben Judah – Research Fellow, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson Institute
Nate Sibley – Program Manager, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson Institute
6. The Future of the U.S.-Turkey Relationship in the Trump Administration | Thursday, September 6, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | Turkish Heritage Organization | The City Club of Washington – President Room, 555 13th Street NW, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
The mutual endorsement of the Manbij roadmap was a positive step forward, since then the relations between the U.S. and Turkey have been nothing but hostile. From Pastor Andrew Brunson being rejected an appeal for release, U.S. sanctioning two Turkish officials and imposing tariffs on Turkish goods, Turkey reciprocating in the same manner with freezing assets of two U.S. officials, as well as ordering sanctions against U.S. products. Meanwhile, Congress has delayed the delivery of F-35s to Turkey. With a number of major developments in the relationship of the two strategic allies, we ask ourselves what comes next?
Please join THO on Thursday, September 6 to hear from our distinguished panel of experts as they analyze the Future of the U.S.-Turkey Relationship.
Speakers:
Moderator: Dr. Mark Meirowitz – Associate Professor, SUNY Maritime College; THO Advisory Board Member
Joel Rubin – Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for House Affairs, State Department
Molly Montgomery – VP at Albright Stonebridge Group, Former State Department and White House Senior Official
Akif Kirecci (via Skype) – President, Ankara Center for Political and Economic Research (ASEM)
7. War or Peace: The Struggle for World Power | Thursday, September 6, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm | Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The Pax Americana – the global order established after the collapse of the Soviet Empire – is increasingly being challenged especially by former imperial behemoths China and Russia. There is a growing chorus questioning the so-called “Washington Consensus” in favor of a “Beijing Consensus” in economic policy. As the United States ceases to be the sole superpower willing and able to maintain a global PAX, today there is an increasing global “disorder.”
Deepak Lal offers a study of the causes and consequences for this disorder, examining alternative claims for a desirable future economic policy. He argues that the origins of this increasing disorder lie, in part, in the great economic recession of 2008 in the United States, which has tarnished the free market based capitalism of the West. He examines how the U.S. (and its European outpost, the E.U), China, Russia, India and, potentially, Japan will be involved in this new “Great Game” and how their strategic decisions will determine whether we see a repeat of the past, with potentially another completely unnecessary world war, or if they will succeed in avoiding a reversion to their earlier types.
8. Rethinking Human Rights and Islam | Thursday, September 6, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for the launch of a new report, “The Islamic Tradition, Human Rights Discourse & Muslim Communities,” and a wide-ranging discussion of human rights issues facing Muslim communities around the world.
From the niqab ban in Denmark, to de-facto bans on freedom of expression in some Muslim majority countries, to the so-called Muslim Ban in the United States, Muslim communities around the world are faced with numerous challenges to human rights and attacks on personal freedoms. Still, contemporary conversations on Islam often question the compatibility of Islamic and Western values. Today, with millions of Muslims on the receiving end of numerous human rights violations at the hands of both Muslim majority and non-Muslim states, the current discourse is proving to be outdated and restrictive.
With generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Atlantic Council Nonresident Senior Fellow Dr. H.A. Hellyer engaged dozens of scholars, grassroots activists, and religious leaders on four continents on issues surrounding the human rights discourse and Muslim communities worldwide. The content of these critical engagements is captured in the new report: “The Islamic Tradition, Human Rights Discourse & Muslim Communities.”
To examine the issues addressed in the report, the Atlantic Council will bring together a panel of experts to discuss and offer their own perspectives on rethinking the dominant narrative on human rights and Islam.
Speakers:
Moderator: Adbul-Rehman Malik – Associate on Middle East Studies, Coordinator of the Muslim Social Justice Leadership Lab at the Dwight Hall Center for Social Justice, Yale University
Dr. Hisham A. Hellyer – Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Dr. Dalia Fahmy – Associate Professor of Political Science, Long Island University
Dr. Mohammad Fadel – Associate Professor, Canada Research Chair, Law & Economics of Islamic Law, University of Toronto
Dr. Peter Mandaville – Professor of International Affairs, George Mason University ; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
9. Iran and Al Qa’ida: The View from Abottabad | Friday, September 7, 2018 | 12:15 pm – 1:45 pm | New America | Register Here
In May 2018, President Trump announced that the Iran deal would be terminated. In doing so he accused Iran of supporting Al Qa‘ida. But what is the true relationship between Iran and Al Qa‘ida? In her new report Al-Qa‘ida’s Contested Relationship With Iran: The View from Abbottabad, New America Senior Fellow Nelly Lahoud cuts through the politicized discourse with an examination of almost 300 of Al Qa‘ida’s own documents regarding its relationship with Iran.
Nelly Lahoud is a Senior Fellow with New America’s International Security Program. She holds a Ph.D. from the Research School of Social Sciences — Australian National University. Her research has focused on the evolution and ideology of Al-Qa’ida (AQ) and the ‘Islamic State’ (ISIS/ISIL). She was previously an associate professor at the Department of Social Sciences and senior associate at the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point; and assistant professor of political theory, including Islamic political thought, at Goucher College.
Join the conversation online using #AQIran and following @NewAmericaISP.
Moderator: Peter Bergen – Vice President, New America; Director, International Security Program, New America
Speaker: Nelly Lahoud – Senior Fellow, New America International Security Program; Author, Al-Qa’ida’s Contested Relationship with Iran: The View from Abottabad
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Tags :
Al Qaeda, Authoritarianism, China, Democracy and Rule of Law, Election, Human Rights, Iran, Islam, Pakistan, Peace, Terrorism, Turkey, United States
1. U.S.-Turkey Relations in Crisis: Where Are We Headed? | Wednesday, August 22, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:00 am | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Please note: Ground Truth Briefings are conducted exclusively by phone. There will be no physical meeting at the Wilson Center.
The U.S.-Turkish relationship is in crisis. The disagreement over the detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson has exposed deeper fault lines in U.S.-Turkish ties that have been building for a decade or more, undermining any sense of confidence and trust. Are the ties that bind Washington and Ankara stronger than those political, economic and regional forces threatening to pull them apart? And is there hope of a pathway back to a more functional relationship?
Join us as four veteran observers and analysts of Turkish politics and U.S.-Turkish relations address these and other issues.
U.S. toll-free number: 888-942-8140
International call-in number: 1-517-308-9203
Participant passcode: 13304
Speakers:
Introduction: Jane Harman – Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Moderator: Aaron David Miller – Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center
Asli Aydintasbas – Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations; columnist for the Turkish daily, Cumhuriyet
Henri Barkey – Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor in International Relations, Lehigh University; Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; former Director, Wilson Center Middle East Program
Soner Cagaptay – Senior fellow at The Washington Institute and author “The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey”
Lisel Hintz – Assistant Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies
2. The Challenge of Cyber Strategy | Wednesday, August 22, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here
In the age of cyber conflict, coercion combines with disruption, cyber espionage and influence campaigns to shape the behavior of antagonists. As the character of power evolves, cyber operations are increasingly becoming a modern form of political warfare, with major implications for coercive policy options and cyber strategies.
Join us as we partner with the Marine Corps University Foundation to convene cyber practitioners and academics for a forward-thinking dialogue on shaping policy to account for this changing security environment and maintain US advantage in long-term cyber competition.
Speakers:
Moderator: JD Work – Donald Bren Chair of Cyber Conflict and Security, Marine Corps University
Dr. Benjamin Jensen – Senior Fellow, Foresight Strategy and Risks Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council; Associate Professor, Marine Corps University; Scholar in Residence, American University
Lt. Gen. Loretta Reynolds – Deputy Commandant for Information, Marine Corps Forces Cyber Command
Dr. Brandon Valeriano – Senior Fellow, Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council; Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics, Marine Corps University
Dr. Chris Whyte – Assistant Professor, Virginia Commonwealth University
3. Afghanistan: 17 Years On | Thursday, August 23, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here
For four decades Afghanistan and its citizens have lived through civil war, instability, and an unending terrorist insurgency. Last year, President Trump announced his Afghanistan and South Asia strategy to help address many of the chronic issues plaguing the region. Yet the Taliban and their allies continue to conduct attacks, often from safe havens across the border in Pakistan.Some experts have suggested that the way out of this destructive cycle is through peace talks and negotiations with the Taliban. Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani has repeatedly demonstrated his openness to such discussions, and has coordinated a number of them with American, Afghan, and Taliban officials in recent years. Others question the wisdom of peace talks involving the Taliban and the viability of any resolution that might require the withdrawal of foreign—especially American—troops from a still unstable Afghanistan.
On August 23, Hudson Institute’s South and Central Asia Program will host a panel to discuss the current political climate in Afghanistan. Panelists will include: Omar Samad, former Ambassador of Afghanistan to France and Canada; David Sedney, acting president of American University of Afghanistan and senior associate at the Center for Strategic and international Studies; and Husain Haqqani, former Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States and director of the South and Central Asia Program at Hudson Institute.
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1. Discussion – Indian Railways and coal: An unsustainable interdependency | Monday, August 13, 2018 | 3:30 pm – 5:00 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Coal is a key part of the equilibrium of Indian Railways since passenger fares don’t cover all the costs. Unfortunately, this equilibrium is at risk. Already the average distance of coal travelled has fallen 30 per cent in five years. Raising coal freight fares disproportionately compared to its distance and volume has led to higher cost of coal delivered and therefore to higher electricity costs for consumers – by approximately 10 paise/kWh across India. This is unsustainable.
Even more worryingly for the equilibrium is the rise of renewable energy and improved efficiency of power plants – these will lead to historical growth of coal transport coming down measurably. Indian Railways business model of “overcharging” coal while keeping passenger fares low could lead to coal (and thus thermal electricity) becoming uncompetitive.
This is a public event. RSVP pkamboj@brookingsindia.org to attend.
Speakers:
Moderator: Rahul Tongia – Fellow, Brookings India
Rakesh Mohan – Distinguished Fellow, Brookings India; former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India; and formerly Chairman, National Transport Development Policy Committee
Vivek Sahai – Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation; and former Chairman, Railway Board
Girish Pillai – Member (Traffic), Railway Board
2. Iran: Protests, Sanctions, and Regime Viability | Wednesday, August 15, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here
On August 6, President Trump officially snapped back sanctions on Iran as part of his “Maximum Pressure” campaign on the country. This is the second concrete step taken by the administration this year, following their formal withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May. The restored sanctions prohibit transactions by countries and private entities involving everything from dollar notes and gold to commercial aircraft. The decision to reimpose these sanctions has drawn opposition from Iran and U.S. allies alike.
Given recent protests in the country over economic woes and ineffective government, the sanctions come at a particularly challenging time for Iran. What remains to be seen is whether new economic pressure will prompt Iran to revive its nuclear ambitions or pressure Tehran into renegotiating a nuclear accord.
On August 15, Hudson Institute will host a panel to discuss Iran, the effectiveness of the U.S. “Maximum Pressure” campaign, the regime’s ability to navigate sanctions, and the country’s widening protests. Panelists will include Michael Pregent, Hudson Institute senior fellow; Alireza Nader, an independent Iran scholar; Behnam Ben Taleblu, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Mariam Memarsadeghi, co-founder and co-director of Tavaana.
3. Brazil’s Election Takes Shape | Thursday, August 16, 2018 | 10:00 am – 10:45 am | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Note: Conference call dial-in information will be sent to participants two days prior to the event.
Latin America’s largest democracy officially kicks off one of its most consequential presidential contests on August 16. Over 14 candidates are vying for the presidency, with five standouts. How might the campaign take shape in the lead-up to the first round on October 7?
Join us via conference call on the day that the campaign officially begins—Thursday, August 16—for a conversation from 10:00 to 10:45 a.m. EDT, in partnership with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), on what to look for during the campaign and how Brazil’s next president may tackle some of the key issues necessary for Brazil to enter a new era of growth and stability.
For a preview of our conversation, keep an eye out for Ricardo Sennes’ Spotlight publication, to be launched on August 9, where he dissects the potential implications of political and economic reform, foreign direct investment, and security policies laid out by Jair Bolsonaro, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Geraldo Alckmin, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the PT nominee.
Speakers:
Roberta Braga – Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Ricardo Sennes – Nonresident Senior Brazil Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Co-Founder, Prospectiva Consulting
Roberto Teixeira da Costa – Member, Board of Trustees, Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Henrique Rzezinski – Member, Board of Trustees, Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
4. Turkey Sanctions – Navigating a Historic Bilateral Crisis | Thursday, August 16, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm | The Washington Institute for Near East Policy | Register Here
Earlier this month, the Trump administration issued sanctions against Turkey for its continued detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson. Ties between the two governments have been under strain for years, but the latest incident has seemingly touched off the most severe crisis in recent memory, including a plunge in Turkish economic indicators. As the historic dispute unfolds, what are the future prospects and pitfalls for the bilateral relationship?
To discuss these issues, The Washington Institute is pleased to host a Policy Forum with Amanda Sloat, Max Hoffman, and Steven Cook, moderated by Institute senior fellow Soner Cagaptay.
Amanda Sloat is a Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe. Previously, she served as deputy assistant secretary for Southern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean affairs at the State Department.
Max Hoffman is the associate director of national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, focusing on Turkey, the Kurdish regions, and U.S. defense policy, among other issues.
Steven Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. An expert on Turkish politics, he has appeared in numerous international media outlets, including as a columnist with Foreign Policy magazine.
This event will be held at The Washington Institute, 1111 19th Street NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC, 20036. It will also be broadcast live on our website.
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After weeks of silence and inaction on the issue of Syria, President Trump has finally done something that will affect the outcome of the Syrian civil war. The influence will not be positive.
Using his favorite policy platform – Twitter – Trump announced Friday that as the Turkish Lira “slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar,” the United States will increase tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. As the New York Times reports, his 50 percent tariff on steel will “effectively [price] Turkish steel out of the American market, which [accounts] for 13 percent of Turkey’s steel exports.”
The run on the Lira, which has been brewing for the past few weeks, is now fully in gear. The self-fulfilling prophecy of foreign-exchange traders selling the Lira before it further loses value, hence depreciating the currency, is in full force. Investors are instead rushing to short the Lira, amplifying the detrimental effect on its value. President Trump boasting about how “strong” the dollar is – which, seeing how uncompetitive American exports are as a result, is not a good thing – does not help.
What does this mean for the countries around Turkey? In the past twenty years, through their “zero-problems” foreign policy and aim for broader strategic influence in the Middle East, Turkey has been increasing its exports to Arab states. Turkish trade with the Middle East and the Gulf increased by 22.1 percent in 2017 alone. As the Lira continues to plummet and Erdoğan continues to shake confidence in the independence of Turkey’s Central Bank, Turkey’s economic strife will have repercussions across the region. It might even cause a domino effect by rattling investor confidence in other economically struggling countries in the region, such as Jordan.
The issue here is what Turkey’s economic troubles, and President Trump’s decision to pile on at the worst possible time, mean for the conflict in Syria. This is particularly salient in the Northern region of Idlib. After Russia and the Syrian government “liberated” the south of Syria of opposition fighters in June and July, Idlib is the last region in Syria with an active Arab military opposition to Assad – IS pockets of influence in the south and the east notwithstanding. During regime attacks on rebel strongholds in Homs in 2014-15, Aleppo in 2016, and Eastern Ghouta and Deraa in 2018, many opposition militias struck deals with the Syrian regime for safe passage to Idlib in exchange for their surrender. The same goes for a significant number of internally displaced persons, who fled regime-held areas and headed for Idlib in the hopes of protection from Assad or the opportunity to leave Syria for Turkey.
The result is that the Idlib region is currently home to more than 2.5 million people, up from 750,000 before the beginning of the war. Idlib is also home to a number of Turkey-sponsored political and military groups, as Turkey hopes to maintain Idlib as a zone of influence for the foreseeable future; it has already spent considerable sums of money in reconstruction efforts, in the hopes that it can return Syrian refugees currently in Turkey to Idlib – despite the fact that most of them are not from Idlib. As the last remaining rebel stronghold, Idlib is also the next military target for the Syrian government
Speculation abounds that the only thing stopping Assad from launching his offensive on Idlib is Russian calls for restraint, as well as a Turkish “red line” warning the Syrian government not to invade Idlib. This is where Turkey’s economic woes become important, particularly as they can be attributed to American actions.
Trump’s tweet will only increase animosity between the US and an economically desperate Turkey. As a result, Turkey is likely to accelerate its turn towards economic cooperation with Russia, with whom they signed a gas pipeline deal in July. Economic cooperation, however, comes with strings attached, and it is likely that Russia will use its greater economic leverage to defuse the chances of a Syrian-Turkish conflict. This would result in Turkish withdrawal from Idlib, and – as Middle East Institute scholar Charles Lister details – a military and humanitarian crisis on a scale unlike anything seen in the Syrian civil war so far should Assad attack the overcrowded region of Idlib.
There is much to criticize about Turkey’s role in Syria. They have sponsored salafist and jihadist groups, encouraged ethnic conflict between the Arabs and the Kurds in the north, and impeded American efforts to liberate eastern Syria from IS by attacking the Kurds in Efrin in January. Trump’s administration, however, is not attempting to influence Turkey’s behavior in Syria in a positive manner, or even to punish Turkey for their actions in Syria. Instead, Trump is kicking Turkey while it is down, meaning that Trump’s first active contribution to the conflict in Syria is somehow worse than America’s inaction in the past few months. As usual, it will be the Syrian population that suffers the most.
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1. Building the Bench for Inclusive U.S. Foreign Policy: Civil Society Leading by Example | Monday, August 6, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 6:00 pm | Open Society Foundations | Register Here
The Open Society Foundations, in collaboration with other partners, has supported research to better understand how civil society can drive inclusive innovation in foreign policy and national security. To this end, a new report, Advancing Diversity and Inclusion in the Foreign Policy Sector, demonstrates how think tanks and nongovernmental organizations can empower a diverse pool of experts to solve the world’s greatest challenges.
Civil society, as the core pool for expertise in government service, can address deficits in cultural, linguistic, and religious lived experiences to offer powerful insight and cultural competency for foreign policy. Experts will discuss best practices and recommendations for the field on how to draw from the United States’ tapestry of diverse communities to gain strategic contributions to diplomacy and national security outcomes.
Please join us for the Washington, D.C., launch of Advancing Diversity and Inclusion in the Foreign Policy Sector, in conversation with Vestige Strategies and the Truman National Security Project.
The panel discussion will be followed by a reception.
Speakers:
Moderator: Alex Johnson – Senior Policy Advisor for Europe and Eurasia, Open Society Foundations, Washington D.C.
Stefanie Brown James – Chief Executive Officer and Founding Partner, Vestige Strategies
Anthony Robinson – Director of Training and Public Engagement, Truman Center for National Policy and Truman National Security Project
2. Israel’s Nation-State Law: Consequences and Costs | Tuesday, August 7, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:00 am | Wilson Center | Register Here
Last month, the Nation-State law enshrining the principle that Israel is the “national home of the Jewish people” became one of Israel’s Basic Laws, giving it a quasi-constitutional status. The new law, which polls indicate a majority of Israeli Jews support, has generated enormous controversy at home and abroad, alienating and angering Palestinian citizens of Israel and the Druze community with its focus on Jewish primacy.
What are the consequences of the new law for comity, politics and governance in Israel?
Join us as three veteran observers of Israel’s politics and policies discuss the new law and its consequences.
U.S. toll-free number: 888-942-8140
International call-in number: 1-517-308-9203
Participant passcode: 13304
Speakers:
Introduction: Jane Harman – Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Moderator: Aaron David Miller – Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center
Ayman Odeh – Head of the Joint List, the third largest parliamentary group in the 20th Knesset
Anshel Pfeiffer – Correspondent, Haaretz; author, Bibi: The Turbulent Life and times of Benjamin Netanyahu
Shibley Telhami – Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, University of Maryland, College Park
3. Pakistan: After the Elections | Tuesday, August 7, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Pakistan has spent almost half of its 70 years as a nation under military rule and the rest under a semi-authoritarian democracy. Since 2008, Pakistan has ostensibly had civilian rule with a peaceful transfer of power in 2013. Analysts are hopeful that Pakistan’s 2018 election on July 25 will continue this trend of democratization.
Elections do not make a democracy. Yet free, fair, and inclusive elections are one of the pillars of a democratic nation. Most observers and analysts, both within and outside the country, have raised concerns about the influence of Pakistan’s military intelligence establishment on the July 25 general election.
On August 7, Hudson Institute’s South and Central Asia Program will host a panel to discuss Pakistan’s 2018 elections. Panelists will include Professor C. Christine Fair, Provost’s Distinguished Associate Professor in the Peace and Security Studies Program at Georgetown University; Dr. Muhammad Taqi, a columnist for The Wire; and Ambassador Husain Haqqani, former Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States and director of South and Central Asia at Hudson Institute.
4. Pakistan Elections: What Now? | Wednesday, August 8, 2018 | 9:30 am – 11:00 am | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Pakistan’s national elections on July 25 ushered in a new government, with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party now set to head a new governing coalition and former cricket star Imran Khan expected to become prime minister. After a controversial campaign period, the incumbent Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)—whose former leader Nawaz Sharif was imprisoned just days before the elections—has alleged rigging, military manipulation, and media censorship. Several political parties have also challenged the results of the elections. Should the results stand, the PTI appears to have swept races around the country, and now faces the challenge of governing.
To discuss the outcome of the elections, the shape of the next government, and the complaints and challenges to the outcome, USIP will hold a conversation with senior representatives from Pakistan’s top three political parties (PTI, PML-N and the Pakistan Peoples Party) via Skype along with experts Daniel Markey, Kiran Pervez and Moeed Yusuf in Washington, D.C. The event will take place from 9:30am – 11:30am on Wednesday, August 8, 2018 at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Join the conversation on Twitter with #PkElectionsWhatNow.
Speakers:
Moderator: Moeed Yusuf – Associate Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Syed Tariq Fatemi (via Skype) – Special Assistant to the Prime Minister
Daniel Markey – Senior Research Professor, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Kiran Pervez – South & Central Asia Regional Chair, U.S. Department of State
Shah Mahmood Qureshi (via Skype) – Vice Chairman, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
Sherry Rehman (via Skype) – Leader of the Opposite of the Senate, Pakistan
5. U.S. Arms Transfer Policy – Shaping the Way Ahead | Wednesday, August 8, 2018 | 10:30 am – 12:30 pm | Center for International and Strategic Studies | Register Here
The Trump Administration released its new Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) policy and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) export policy in April 2018. It constitutes the first update to the CAT policy since January 2014.
Please join CSIS as we host a public event to discuss the Administration’s new CAT policy. The event will commence with keynote remarks by Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Tina Kaidanow. Following these remarks, a moderated panel consisting of government, think tank, and industry experts will contextualize and discuss challenges in implementation, as well as opportunities presented for U.S. strategy and U.S. business as a result of this policy update.
Speakers:
Ambassador Tina Kaidanow – Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Alex Gray – Special Assistant to the President for the Defense Industrial Base, White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy
Laura Cressey – Deputy Director for Regional Security and Arms Transfers, U.S. Department of State
Jeff Abramson – Senior Fellow, Arms Control Association
Keith Webster – President, Defense and Aerospace Export Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Melissa Dalton – Deputy Director, International Security Program and Director, Cooperative Defense Project, CSIS
Dak Hardwick – Assistant Vice President, International Affairs, Aerospace Industries Association
Andrew Philip-Hunter – Director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and Senior Fellow, International Security Program, CSIS
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1. Where Do We Go From Here? One Year after the Rohingya Crisis | Monday, July 30, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Heritage Foundation | Register Here
On August 25, 2017 violence broke out in Rakhine State that led to the mass exodus of more than 700,000 Muslim Rohingya from Burma. Thousands of fleeing Rohingya men and boys were brutally murdered, women and girls were raped and sexually abused, and babies were killed before their family’s eyes at the hands of the notorious Burmese military. The United Nations calls the situation ethnic cleansing. And according to The Economist the refugee flow from Burma was faster than the exodus from Rwanda in the midst of the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The United States has responded by providing substantial humanitarian assistance to alleviate suffering. As the protracted crisis continues, it will be critical for the U.S. to implement a comprehensive long-term strategy to address the Rohingya crisis. That may require a larger-scale shift in broader U.S. strategy toward Burma. Please join us for a conversation nearly a year after the crisis began to discuss solutions to the long-term challenges facing Rohingya.
Speakers:
Keynote: Kelley E. Currie – Representative of the United States on the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations, and Alternate Representative of the United States to the General Assembly of the United Nations
Moderator: Walter Lohman – Director, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation
Francisco Bencosme – Asia Pacific Advocacy Manager, Amnesty International
U Kyaw Min – Former Member of Parliament, Burma
Olivia Enos – Policy Analyst, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation
2. The Nuclear Future: Can There Be Order Without Trust? | Monday, July 30, 2018 | 12:30pm – 2:00 pm | Stimson Center | Register Here
Developments in relations between major powers and nuclear-armed states in tense regions render the future of arms control, nuclear confidence-building, and U.S. leadership in the global nonproliferation regime uncertain. Please join the Stimson Center for a luncheon discussion addressing trust deficits in the global nuclear order. Our featured speaker, Heather Williams, lecturer in Defence Studies, Kings College London, will offer recommendations for how the United States can rebuild trust within the global nuclear order, to include increased transparency and unilateral measures in the absence of new treaties. Justin Anderson, senior research fellow, National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Rebecca Gibbons, post-doctoral fellow, Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Sara Kutchesfahani, senior policy analyst, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, will offer comments. Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center, will convene our luncheon meeting, and Hannah Haegeland, a South Asia analyst at Stimson, will moderate the discussion.
3. Governing the Ungovernable: Institutional Reforms for Democratic Governance in Pakistan | Monday, July 30, 2018 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Wilson Center | Register Here
Why has Pakistan experienced an extended economic slowdown since 1990? Why has it suffered through volatile and inequitable growth over the last 25 years? In his new book, Governing the Ungovernable, Ishrat Husain, a distinguished Pakistani economist, Wilson Center global fellow, and former Wilson Center public policy fellow, argues that the answer lies in the decay of institutions of governance. At this event, Dr. Husain will discuss his new book, which proposes a selective and incremental approach for reforming key public institutions in Pakistan in order to make them perform better. This event will be moderated by Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center.
4. Yemen’s Silent Crisis: Elevating Local Perspectives | Tuesday, July 31, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | International Center for Religion and Diplomacy | 740 15th St NW #900, Washington, DC, 20005 | Register Here
As Yemen continues to unravel, discussions of the crisis in media and policy circles too often focus solely on the geopolitics, and overlook the realities on the local level. Even in the absence of resources and functioning national institutions, Yemeni community leaders are finding ways to confront dire humanitarian and security challenges. With no political resolution to the conflict in sight, it is more important than ever to examine this crisis through the eyes of those who are impacted most directly.
The International Center for Religion & Diplomacy (ICRD) will host a discussion with Yemen experts and civil society leaders from across a range of disciplines and sectors, in order to take a holistic view of what has been happening at the local level. As Yemen faces a crisis on multiple fronts – famine, civil war, terrorism, political and economic instability – it is important to bring together voices from distinct fields of work.
In this event, panelists will elevate stories of resilience and adversity from Yemeni communities, touching on issues of conflict transformation, humanitarian relief, and the role of civil society in filling the gaps left by absent governing institutions.
Speakers:
Moderator: James Patton – ICRD President & CEO
Fatima Abo Alasrar – Senior Analyst at the Arabia Foundation
Anwar Khan – President of Islamic Relief
Salwa Alssarhi – Independent Consultant – Yemen
5. The Code of Putinism | Wednesday, August 1, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
What is Vladimir Putin up to? In the new book The Code of Putinism, Brian Taylor argues that we can only understand Putin’s Russia if we understand the set of ideas, emotions, and habits that influence how Team Putin views the world. Key features of Russian politics today–such as increasing authoritarianism, Putin’s reliance on a small group of loyal friends and associates, state domination of the economy, and an assertive foreign policy–are traced to the worldview and mindset of Putin and his close associates. The Code of Putinism also shows how Putin’s choices, guided by this mindset, have led to a Russia that is misruled at home and punching above its weight abroad.
Speakers:
Moderator: Jeffrey Mankoff – Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Brian Taylor – Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, Maxwell School, Syracuse University
Stephen Hanson – Vice Provost for International Affairs, College of William and Mary
Olga Oliker – Senior Advisor and Director, Russia and Eurasia, CSIS
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