Category: Martin Pimentel
Peace Picks | March 21 – March 25, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Defense Project Series: Ending the War in Afghanistan- a discussion with counter-terror expert David Kilcullen | March 22, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Dave Kilcullen: Lieutenant Colonel, Australian Army Reserves
Dave Kilcullen, strategist/scholar/author, discusses the war in Afghanistan, the Taliban and ISIS, and how the United States and its allies might help Afghanistan forge a future of hope and promise vice a return to the dark days of the 1990s. With the agreed deadline for American withdrawal from Afghanistan looming on 1 May and Taliban attacks ramping up, President Biden is faced with a difficult policy decision to stay in the war or leave. Join Bill Rapp as he moderates this important discussion with the famed counter-terror expert.
2. Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq | March 22, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Center | Register Here
Speakers
Amb. Feisal Al-Istrabadi: Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East
Dr. Abbas Kadhim: Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. Oula Kadhum: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Birmingham
Dr. Marsin Alshamary (moderator): Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The Brookings Institute
The Atlantic Council hosts a discussion surrounding the upcoming report, Iraqi Diaspora Mobilization and the Future Development of Iraq. Authored by Dr. Oula Kadhum, postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Birmingham, the paper explores Iraqi diaspora mobilization before and after the 2003 invasion and fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein, looking at ways in which members of the diaspora have sought to help in the rebuilding of their country of origin, at both the elite and grassroots levels, as well as investigating changes over time. The discussion will touch on the paper’s key recommendations, considering the obstacles that have hindered diaspora mobilization, beyond the ethno-sectarian system.
3. The Politics of Mass Violence in the Middle East | March 22, 2021 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Laura Robson: Professor of History, Penn State University
Laila Parsons: McGill University
Ussama Makdisi: Rice University
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator): Director, History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen (moderator): Professor of History, The George Washington University
4. In a Consequential Year for Iraq, What’s Next? | March 23, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Lise Grande: President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Matthew Tueller: Ambassador of the United States to Iraq
Ambassador Fareed Yasseen: Ambassador of Iraq to the United States
Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman: Kurdistan Regional Government Representative to the United States
Sarhang Hamasaeed (moderator): Director, Middle East Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
As Iraq marks the 18th anniversary of the 2003 U.S.-led war that set in motion consequential changes, the country is eyeing what a Biden administration might bring while the country prepares for national elections in October. Meanwhile, His Holiness Pope Francis made a historic visit to Iraq earlier this month and injected much needed messages of hope, coexistence, and peace into an environment dominated by frustrations with the pandemic and its financial consequences, public grievances with governance, continued U.S.-Iran tensions and attacks on coalition forces, and the ongoing threat of ISIS. Join USIP for a discussion of key developments in Iraq and the outlook for U.S.-Iraq relations under the Biden administration. The panel will share their insights on the Pope’s first-ever visit to Iraq, examine the country’s current challenges, and explore areas where policymakers and the international community can support Iraq.
5. Women’s gains in Afghanistan: Leadership and peace | March 23, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Minister Hasina Safi: Acting Minister for Women’s Affairs, Government of Afghanistan
Fatima Gailani: Member, Afghan Negotiating Team
Lt. Colonel Natalie Trogus: Former Advisor, Afghan Ministry of Defense
Ambassador Paula Dobriansky (moderator): Vice Chair, Scowcroft Center for Strategy & Security, Atlantic Council
For Afghanistan to rebuild and for peace to be sustainable, the country will require a diversity of ideas, experiences, leadership, and action — from all of its people — to move forward. Such progress is impossible without the dedicated, long-term involvement of women, which allows for shifts in both long-held beliefs and practices, including those of the Taliban. This will ultimately allow peace to be not only enduring, but create a shared vision of Afghanistan’s future that puts Afghan women at the center. Join the Atlantic Council for a conversation on how Afghan women and their US partners have worked to improve women’s leadership opportunities in Afghanistan, what these improvements mean for Afghan women, and the critical role women play in Afghanistan’s aspirations for long-term peace.
6. Africa’s Global Reset: Foreign Relations in a Post-Pandemic Era | March 23, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Speakers
Andrew Alli: Partner and Group CEO, SouthBridge; former CEO of Africa Finance Corporation
Akunna Cook: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Bogolo Kenewendo: Former Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry of Botswana; Non-Resident Fellow, Center for Global Development
Ambassador Koji Yonetani: Assistant Minister for African Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan
Judd Devermont (moderator): Director, Africa Program
The Covid-19 pandemic is dramatically changing relationships between African governments and external partners, creating opportunities for a reset in relations and a recommitment to strategic issues. Longstanding grievances stemming from African countries’ status in international affairs, racism against their citizens abroad, and the zero-sum premise of global power competition have reached a boiling point. The pandemic is prompting regional governments to demand more equitable vaccine distribution, debt relief, and targeted investment in key economic sectors. It’s time to pause and identify the trends reshaping the region as well as implications for African governments and their foreign partners. Join the CSIS Africa Program on March 23, 2021, for a virtual livestream event examining the state of Africa’s foreign ties and key strategic issues to watch for, including Covid-19 recovery, debt relief, anti-discrimination, democratization, and climate change.
7. Anti-Coercion Instrument: How can Europe best protect itself from economic coercion? | March 23, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Colin Brown: Head of Unit, Legal Affairs/Dispute settlement (trade, sustainable development and investment), European Commission
Sven Simon: MEP; Member of International Trade Committee, European Parliament
Marie-Pierre Vedrenne: MEP; Vice-Chair of International Trade Committee, European Parliament
Jonathan Hackenbroich (moderator): Head of Task Force for Strengthening Europe against Economic Coercion, ECFR
The European Council on Foreign Relations is delighted to invite you to our webinar on how Europe can strengthen itself against economic coercion. Powerful countries revert to economic blackmail to change European foreign, economic, or financial policy. China has threatened Germany and Sweden with dire economic consequences over excluding Huawei from their 5G networks. Russia is looking into expanding its sanction toolkit. Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan called for boycotting French products over a speech by Emmanuel Macron. Under Donald Trump, the US used various measures of economic coercion, even directly against allies. Now, Europe needs to rebuild strong transatlantic relations especially around economic statecraft.
8. Unmasking Influence Operators: What Are Best Practices for Attribution? | March 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Marianna Spring: Disinformation and social media reporter, BBC
Elise Thomas: OSINT analyst, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue
Emerson T. Brooking: Resident senior fellow, Digital Forensic Lab, Atlantic Council
Olgo Belogolova: Policy manager for influence operations, Facebook
A growing community of researchers are investigating influence operations, but research standards for conducting investigations are not widely shared. This event will explore one of the thorniest investigative challenges – identifying who is behind an influence operation.
9. Defending democracy against its adversaries | March 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Leader of Democratic Belarus
Bob Dean: Senior research fellow, Clingendael Institute
Kara McDonald: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, US Department of State
Gerard Steeghs: Director, Multilateral Organizations and Human Rights, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of the Netherlands
Thomas Wright: Director, Center on the US and Europe, Brookings Institution
Constanze Stellenmüller (moderator): Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
Liberal democracy — representation, the rule of law, and human rights — is the foundation of the trans-Atlantic alliance and a rules-based international order. The Biden administration has placed democracy at the heart of its policy agenda; in the words of its March 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, “Democracy is essential to meeting all the challenges of our changing world.” Yet democracy is under threat worldwide from populists and rising authoritarian powers. Still, civil societies continue to fight for their rights. In Belarus, a pro-democracy movement led by teacher-turned-presidential-candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is bravely protesting the fraudulent August 2020 election, despite violent repression by the government of Alexander Lukashenko. Brookings will host Tsikhanouskaya for a keynote address that examines democracy and human rights in Belarus.
10. ‘The Last Shah’: A book event with Ray Takeyh | March 26, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
Speakers
Ray Takeyh: Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Eric Edelman: Counselor, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Kenneth M. Pollack: Resident Scholar, AEI
Colin Dueck (moderator): Visiting Scholar, AEI
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Information and social media in the Arab Spring
At the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring, one question that remains unanswered is whether the use of social media presaged today’s world of rampant disinformation, coordinated online trolls, and weaponized information. While protestors’ use of the internet during the revolutions initially caught most governments flat-footed, manipulating information to maintain domestic control is increasingly commonplace. In this virtual event March 10, the Atlantic Council explored how social media evolved over the course of a single decade from a symbol of hope to a tool for manipulation. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Rasha A. Abdulla: Professor, Journalism and Mass Communication Department, The American University in Cairo (AUC)
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow and Managing Director, DFRLab, Atlantic Council
Borzou Daragahi: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Tuqa Nusairat (moderator): Deputy Director, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
The Age of Innocence
A common theme among all of the panelists was the innocent nature of social media in the early days of the Arab Spring. This innocence extended to both governments’ conceptions of the internet and activists’ uses of it. As Carvin noted, governments were initially naive about the revolutionary potential of the internet. As a result, early attempts to repress activists during the Arab Spring often took the form of traditional violence and coercion rather than the manipulation of digital spaces, reflecting a lack of concern that the internet and social media could be a significant mobilizing force. Abdulla echoed these sentiments. She relayed an anecdote frequently shared about the Mubarak regime in Egypt during the first demonstrations against the Egyptian government, when members of the regime stated that they would “let the kids play” with social media and the internet.
Innocence regarding the nature of the internet likewise extended to activists themselves. Daragahi pointed to the open nature of the internet in 2011, in which activists posted statements on social media using their real names. Carvin similarly recalled speaking with a Tunisian activist in 2011 who extolled the virtues of having her/his name associated with online comments. Both panelists contrasted this early use of the internet for activism with more recent years, in which activists have increasingly gravitated towards pseudonyms and encrypted telecommunications, where the risk of repression is substantially lower.
The Rise of Coordinated Disinformation
As governments became more aware of the power of the internet and social media to destabilize their hold on power, they began to develop increasingly sophisticated methods for maintaining control over the information environment. Carvin commented on the ability of regimes to adapt new, more effective methods for exploiting the digital sphere. The first instance of regime counter-responses to digital activism occurred in Syria in 2011, where the Assad regime used bots to amplify random stories about Syria that crowded out activists’ tweets. In Saudi Arabia, the government used real people to push propaganda and pro-government narratives rather than bots. Throughout the region, governments have become more adept at crowding out activists from social media or identifying and targeting opposition voices.
Carvin suggested that one of the most insidious recent developments in disinformation has been the growth of private firms available for hire that will create disinformation campaigns on demand. He specifically pointed to a Tunisian firm that has created disinformation to support multiple political candidates in Togo, Cote d’Ivoire, and Tunisia, but he noted that the degree to which these firms exist and the scale of their disinformation networks is as yet largely unknown. Abdulla also identified social media platforms as playing a role in crowding out activist voices. She especially condemned the practice of ghost-banning, in which platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram decrease the visibility of certain users. This process is particularly problematic because it occurs with no transparency and is often difficult to identify at all.
While governments have learned to more effectively control digital spaces, Daragahi stressed that the use of social media and the internet is only one facet of activism. Ultimately, the ability to mobilize on the streets and the desire to effect change upon the world are far more consequential determinants of political change.
To watch the event in full, please click here:
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Peace Picks | March 8 – March 12, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. The Women Who Took on ISIS | March 8, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Speakers
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon: Author, Journalist, and a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Beverly Kirk: Fellow and Director for Outreach, International Security Program, CSIS
Nina Easton: Non-resident Senior Associate
Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power celebration of International Women’s Day featuring New York Times best-selling author Gayle Tzemach Lemmon. She will discuss her new book, The Daughters of Kobani (2021), her best-selling book Ashley’s War: The Untold Story of a Team of Women Soldiers on the Special Ops Battlefield (2015), which is being made into a major motion picture, and her extensive research and experience covering the women who serve and live in conflict-affected areas of the world.
2. The Politics of History in Saudi Arabia | March 8, 2021 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Rosie Bsheer: Harvard University
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator): Director, History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center
Eric Arneson (moderator): Professor of History, George Washington University
Sherene Seikaly: Professory, University of California Santa Barbara
Asher Orkaby: Fellow, Wilson Center
3. The Voices of South Sudan’s Women | March 8, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins: Founder and Executive Director, Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation
Rita Lopidia: Executive Director, EVE Organization for Women Development
Nyachangkuoth Rambang Tai: Special Assistant, Chairperson Advisor to the African Union
Susan Stigant: Director, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
In recent years, South Sudanese women have made significant strides in their push for inclusion in national peace processes. Women negotiators were crucial in shaping the 2018 peace agreement—revitalizing what had been a stalled and contentious process—and also secured a new quota that requires 35 percent of government representatives to be women, opening the door for a more expansive role in national affairs. But despite these signs of progress, women’s voices remain conspicuously absent among publicly written narratives of South Sudan, which continue to be dominated by the opinions, analysis, and stories of male writers. In celebration of International Women’s Day, please join USIP, Oxfam International, and FEMRITE—the Ugandan Women Writers Association—for a discussion about how women’s literary voices can contribute to building a deeper understanding of the impact of conflict in South Sudan and inspire progress toward peace.
4. US-German and trans-Atlantic relations in the 21st century | March 9, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
John Allen: President, Brookings Institution
H. E. Heiko Maas: Federal Foreign Minister, Federal Republic of Germany
H. E. Emily Haber: German Ambassador to the United States
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Constanze Stelzenmüller: Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
Since the end of the Second World War, trans-Atlantic relations have been the bedrock of the rules-based international order. The development of a prosperous, democratic, and reunited Germany stands as a testament to the results of more than 75 years of trans-Atlantic cooperation. Today, the United States, Germany, Europe, and the larger international order are beset by numerous challenges, from illiberal actors at home to challenges posed by authoritarian strategic competitors like China and Russia. On Tuesday, March 9, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas for a keynote address in honor of the launch of the Fritz Stern chair, followed by a panel discussion considering the current state of U.S.-German and U.S.-European relations and the prospects for reform to best address the challenges of the 21st century.
5. Ending the Yemen conflict – Voices of local peace-builders | March 9, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Radhya Al-Mutawakel: Co-founder and Chairperson, Mwatana for Human Rights
Rasha Jarhum: Founder and Director, Peace Track Initiative
Muna Luqman: Executive Director, Food4Humanity
Helena Gronberg: Program Director, Better Peace Initiative, ICAN
Ellie Geranmayeh (moderator): Deputy Director, MENA program, ECFR
After six years of conflict, culminating in what the UN has labelled the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis, the new Biden administration has vowed to redouble US support to the political process in Yemen. But despite recent momentum, securing peace in Yemen is going to be immensely challenging and the humanitarian situation looks set to worsen this year. This event will consider how women peace-builders in Yemen are providing essential gender-responsive humanitarian and peacemaking support, including by helping broker negotiations on the ground, while also advocating for human rights, the release of detainees and ceasefires. The discussion will explore why and how these efforts should be included in the UN-led political process in Yemen.
6. The Arab Spring: Precursor to the disinformation age? | March 10, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Rasha A. Abdulla: Professor, Journalism and Mass Communication Department, The American University in Cairo (AUC)
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow and Managing Director, DFRLab, Atlantic Council
Borzou Daragahi: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
As we mark the 10th anniversary of the revolutions across North Africa and the Middle East collectively known as the Arab Spring, one question that remains unanswered is whether the use of social media during the that time presaged today’s world of rampant disinformation, coordinated online trolls and weaponized information. While most governments were initially caught flat-footed when it came to using the Internet in response to these revolutions, manipulating information to maintain domestic control is increasingly commonplace. How did we get here? In this virtual event organized by The Atlantic Council, we will explore how social media was turned on its head over the course of a single decade from a symbol of hope to a tool for manipulation.
7. Bridging the Divide Between Elite and Grassroots Anti-Corruption Activists | March 10, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Abigail Bellows: Non-resident scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bruno Brandão: Director, Transparency International-Brazil
Hussein Khalid: Executive Director, HAKI Africa
Ketakandriana Refitoson: Executive Director, Transparency International-Madagascar
Nada Zohdy: Director, Open Gov Hub
Around the world, ineffective and even fraudulent responses by governments to COVID-19 have escalated citizens’ demands for greater transparency and accountability and civil society actors are responding to meet that need. But tangible progress against corruption will require more than just showing up. It will necessitate cooperation between “elite” and “grassroots” civil society organizations. This event will feature three leading practitioners on how they forge civic partnerships in the era of COVID-19.
8. Reflections on US-China Relations | March 10, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 9:30 AM ET | Hoover Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Matt Pottinger: Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution
Elizabeth Economy: Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
H.R. McMaster: Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
The Hoover Institution will host a discussion about the great-power competition between the United States and China, the rising risks for Western businesses in China, and the strategic pitfalls the West must avoid. After his remarks, Matt Pottinger will join Hoover Institution Fellows Elizabeth Economy and H.R. McMaster in conversation.
9. Light Water Capitalism: Nonproliferation and U.S. Global Power | March 11, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Jayita Sarkar: Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program
How do the exports of U.S. power reactors relate to nonproliferation, global capitalism, and U.S. empire? And what does that tell us about the dominance by design of U.S. government and businesses in the decolonized world, where they promised development but delivered debt? This seminar pursues this inquiry through investigating the role of the light water reactor as an instrument of U.S. nonproliferation policy from the mid-1950s until the end of the 1980s.
10. MEI Defense Leadership Series: Episode 11 with Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Simone Ledeen | March 12, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Speakers
Bilal Y. Saab: Director, Defense and Security Program, MEI
Simone Ledeen: Former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East
In this episode, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program Bilal Y. Saab speaks to former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Simone Ledeen, currently a Nonresident Senior Fellow with MEI’s Defense and Security Program. This conversation will focus on U.S. policies toward the Middle East during the Trump administration and lessons learned. Saab will be taking audience questions throughout, and factor as many as possible into the discussion.
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Toward a critical C/PVE perspective
Terrorism and violent extremism represent some of Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. They exacerbate local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing an already fragile political landscape. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by the US and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. On February 24, the United States Institute of Peace convened a panel in conjunction with the RESOLVE Network to discuss local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Dr. Alastair Reed (opening remarks): Senior Expert, US Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network
Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies
Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Bethany L. McGann (closing remarks): Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, US Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network
Framing Violent Extremism
All of the panelists acknowledged the importance of beginning any discussion of countering/preventing violent extremism (C/PVE) methods with an examination of the definitions that undergird these policies. Olojo stressed that counterterrorism is often a particularly problematic term. State actors, particularly in Africa, have frequently exploited the concept of counterterrorism to abuse their political power. By shifting to discussions of preventing violent extremism rather than counterterrorism, policymakers and scholars can begin to focus on risk factors, early warning mechanisms, and root causes, as opposed to security responses to violence.
In addition to the effect for high-level actors, definitions and terms matter for local actors. As Donnelly noted, women’s groups in particular have raised concerns about threats they have received due to their association with counterterrorism and counterviolent extremism programming. Moreover, Western groups frequently engage with African countries with a preconceived idea of what constitutes the most significant security threats, while ignoring contradictory information from local groups. As a result, Sany emphasized that local actors must own the framing of C/PVE programming.
The COVID-19 pandemic and violent extremism
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a significant development in the evolution of violent extremist organizations in Africa. Olojo pointed to two groups in Africa in particular: Boko Haram and al-Shabab. Since the onset of the pandemic, Boko Haram has pushed narratives that the pandemic is a punishment from God. Through these narratives, the group has sought to capitalize on the crisis to aid their recruitment strategies. In the Horn of Africa, al-Shabab established a COVID-19 prevention and treatment center. The group’s decision to form this center highlights both how the pandemic has exacerbated governance failures. Violent extremist organizations are exploiting these failures to increase their standing.
Community-oriented C/PVE
Discussions of community-oriented C/PVE methods and the role of gender dominated much of the panel’s discussion. Olojo identified four key ideas regarding the inclusion of communities in C/PVE programming. First, community voices ought to be included because they bear the brunt of violence from these groups. Second, research on communities should not simply focus on gathering data, but should also allow communities to express their views. Third, emphasis should be placed on developing a shared vision across communities, which is ultimately a prerequisite to successful dialogue. Finally, policymakers and scholars should remember that their ultimate responsibility lies with enhancing the welfare of these local communities.
Donnelly remarked on the importance of including women’s voices–and a discussion of gender more broadly–in engagements with local communities. She delineated three particularly pressing issues along these lines for Africa in 2021:
- Deep concern about the upcoming elections in Somalia and the prospects for election violence perpetrated by al-Shabab. In particular, she fears that an election crisis could sideline the activism of women.
- Frustration that PVE policy and programming has continued to fail with respect to the re-integration of women participants in violent extremist organizations. Re-integration programming to date has focused almost entirely on male participants in these organizations, despite the fact that women experience unique barriers to re-entering society.
- Societies have not reckoned with the reality of child members of these organizations. Many children were either born into these groups or have been integrated into them, and as a result many children have now been imprisoned due to their connections to Boko Haram.
To watch the event in full:
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Turkey ascendant, Europe at odds, Libyans need to be heard
Ten years after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Muammar al-Qaddafi, the Biden administration is facing renewed challenges in Libya. Buffeted by the other powers’ diverging geopolitical interests, including those of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Russia, Libya will face enormous political, economic and security challenges in the foreseeable future. US diplomatic absence has left the country in turmoil and allowed the intervention of foreign powers.
On February 18, the Atlantic Council hosted a panel exploring the role of international actors in the post 2011 Libyan political landscape. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Karim Mezran (Moderator): Director, North Africa Initiative, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Steven A. Cook: Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow, Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute
Deborah K. Jones: Former United States Ambassador to Libya
Roberto Menotti: Co-Executive Director, Aspen Economic Strategy Group
The US Role in Libya
Jones predicted that Libya will ultimately take a backseat in the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda. Instead, she expects Biden to focus on rebuilding alliances, handling the COVID-19 pandemic, and addressing climate change. To the extent that Biden’s foreign policy will intersect with the situation in Libya, it will likely be through a multilateral framework, such as NATO. Jones expressed optimism that the US will play a more assertive role in preventing destabilizing actions in Libya by external actors and will continue to play a role in counterterrorism. Ultimately, however, she cautioned that the US is no longer in a position to deliver decisive fiats through unilateral action in any arena in the world, including Libya.
European Tension Over Libya
Menotti argued that there is a “fundamental incoherence” in European policy vis-a-vis Libya. Despite the fact that European interests have always been most effectively pursued through collaboration, European action in Libya has remained fractured by national interests. These divisions are most clearly expressed through the competitive relationship between France and Italy in Libya, which has largely centered around strategic positioning over natural resources. However, Italy’s intervention in Libya can be characterized as tentative at best. Besides, there are sufficient resources in Libya for European countries to find room for mutual cooperation.
Regional Actors in Libya
Turkey’s intervention and stabilization efforts continue to be one of the defining regional elements of the conflict in Libya. However, the panelists disagreed about the prospects for these efforts. Jones remained confident that Turkey can remain a critical ally for the US in the Libyan arena, particularly given America’s diminished global standing and Turkey’s interest in reasserting itself internationally.
Other panelists acknowledged that Turkey’s military intervention has been surprisingly effective at stabilizing the situation in Libya. However, they were less optimistic about Turkey’s potential to act cooperatively with other international powers. Menotti noted that Turkey’s neo-Ottoman strategy has met the most success to date in Libya, suggesting that it will seek to further consolidate its position and influence there. Cook went further, arguing that Turkey and the US have increasingly diverged with respect to their goals and values. As a result, he expects that the US will struggle to find points of synergy with Turkey in Libya. Instead, America must expect to either oppose Turkey or get out of the way.
The UAE and the Gulf countries more broadly have also intervened in Libya in recent years. However, Jones, Cook, and Menotti agreed that the GCC has been an ineffective and destabilizing force in Libya, and they predicted that the Gulf countries will likely disengage from Libya in the near-term.
A Libyan Voice for Libya’s Future
While much of the discussion centered around the international forces at work in Libya, Gomati underlined the fact that the Libyan conflict is fundamentally about Libyans, no matter how many countries have sought to exert themselves in the power vacuum. The fundamental Libyan nature of this conflict has two important implications:
- The conflict will not be resolved until Libyans resolve the disputes over the country’s political direction, national character, and ideological tone. This debate revolves around the role of the military in political and civil society.
- European, American, and regional machinations cannot resolve these differences without the explicit buy-in of Libyans themselves.
While much of the ongoing discussions about Libya concern its international dynamics, we must not forget the voices of Libyans themselves.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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Peace Picks | February 21 – February 26, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Restoring Humanitarian Access in Ethiopia | February 22, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 9:45 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has displaced millions, and created massive humanitarian need. Despite negotiated agreements with the United Nations, the federal government and ethnic militias continue to impede humanitarian access, disrupting the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to over 2 million people in need. Humanitarian organizations, and the international community, continue to demand full cooperation from the Ethiopian government to allow unfettered access, with limited results.
Speakers
Jan Egeland: Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council
Catherine Weisner: Head of External Engagement at the UNHCR Regional Bureau for East Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes
Daniel Bekele: Chief Commissioner of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program, CSIS
2. Priorities for U.S. Middle East Policy | February 22, 2021 | 9:05 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Meghan L. O’Sullivan: Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project – Harvard University
Will Hurd: Former Representative, R. Texas, U.S. Congress
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution
3. A conversation with US Acting Assistant Secretary Joey Hood on economic priorities in the Middle East | February 23, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The stability of the Middle East is highly dependent on economic prosperity. Unfortunately, a weakening economic outlook due to the decline in oil prices and ongoing regional conflicts is exacerbated by the pandemic. The young and growing demographics of the region require swift action to create jobs. Without a long-term regional economic strategy that empowers the region’s rich human capital to contribute meaningfully to the economy, we will continue to go from one crisis to the next. The pandemic is providing a strong catalyst for change and sparking economic diversification and growth.
Speakers
Joey Hood: Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Amjad Ahmad (moderator): Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
4. Security Challenges in Africa: 2021 and Beyond | February 24, 2021 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Terrorism and violent extremism are arguably Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. Their activities foment local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing already fragile political landscapes. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by U.S. and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. Unless local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism are included in strategies to prevent violent extremism, Africa’s many national and regional efforts will fail to deliver sustainable and credible peace.
Speakers
Dr. Alastair Reed: Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network
Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies
Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Bethany L. McGann: Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network
5. Iranian public opinion in the Biden era | February 24, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The election of President Biden has raised expectations for a restoration of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and a de-escalation of US-Iran tensions. The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland recently completed a poll of Iranian public opinion on these and other relevant issues. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion of the poll results and their implications for US-Iran diplomacy.
Speakers
Nancy Gallagher: Director, Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland
Ellie Geranmayeh: Senior Policy Fellow, Deputy Head of Middle East and North Africa Program, European Council on Foreign Relations
Ilan Goldenberg: Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Barbara Slavin (moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
6. A New Strategy for U.S. Engagement in North Africa | February 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Ten years after the Arab Spring, the socioeconomic and governance grievances that fueled the 2010-2011 uprisings are still prevalent across North Africa, and many have worsened in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite North African activists and officials pushing for reform, the region has received little U.S. support. Now, the new Biden administration has an opportunity to prioritize North Africa. The United States can ensure long-term stability by working with European and multilateral partners to counter Russian and Chinese influence and support the people’s demands for greater voice and accountability in the region.
Speakers
Daniel Rubinstein: Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Karim El Aynaoui: President, Policy Center for the New South
Nancy Okail: Visiting Scholar, Center for Development, Democracy, and Rule of Law, Stanford University
Youssef Cherif: Director, Columbia Global Centers Tunis
7. The Bull Moose and the Bear: Theodore Roosevelt and the Deep Origins of Russian Disinformation | February 25, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
During Theodore Roosevelt’s presidency, Jews in the Russian Empire were subjected to brutal pogroms that claimed thousands of lives. Americans rallied behind the embattled Jewish community and pressed Roosevelt to take action on the global stage. Russia, in turn, fed lies to the press in the United States in a bid to manipulate the public and the president. This seminar explores this little-known episode in U.S. history and considers its implications for Russian-American relations today.
Speakers
Andrew Porwancher: Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program
8. Palestine and the Progressive Movement in the United States | February 25, 2021 | 3:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
How can a U.S. policy toward Palestine align more closely with progressive principles? What are the chief obstacles to promoting a justice-oriented approach to Israel/Palestine in the American political sphere? Will the election of new progressive leaders to Congress make this goal more attainable than in the past? To answer these and other questions, please join MEI for a public webinar and book talk with Marc Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick, coauthors of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics.
Speakers
Marc Lamont Hill: Steve Charles Professor of Media, Cities, and Solutions, Temple University
Mitchell Plitnick: President, ReThinking Foreign Policy
Khaled Elgindy (moderator): Senior Fellow, MEI
9. The Unraveling of Syria and America’s Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
In August 2013, a massive sarin attack in the Damascus suburbs shocked the world and confronted the Obama White House with an agonizing choice: Whether to enforce the president’s “red line” threat with a military strike, or gamble on a diplomatic solution that offered the appealing prospect of the complete elimination of Syria’s strategic chemical weapons stockpile. Ultimately a deal was struck, and within days the race was on to extract and destroy hundreds of tons of lethal chemicals stashed in military bunkers across Syria, in the middle of a civil war. In his new book Red Line, journalist and author Joby Warrick draws from new documents and hundreds of interviews to reconstruct the key decision points as well as the unprecedented international effort to remove the weapons under fire and then—when no country was willing to accept Syria’s chemicals—to destroy them at sea.
Speakers
James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Joby Warrick: Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center
Robert S. Litwick (moderator): Director, International Security Studies, Wilson Center
10. Dealing with conflicts and their aftermath | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Gregory D. Johnson: Nonresident Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
Jomana Qaddour: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Marsin Alshamary: Post-Doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy
Daniel L. Byman: Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
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