Category: Miriam Lake
What the next president will face in the Middle East
On Monday the Middle East Institute hosted the launch of the November volume of The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. The event featured a panel of the Special Editors of the edition, Rand Beers, Richard A. Clarke, Emilian Papadopoulos, and Paul Salem, discussing the issue titled The Middle East and Regional Transition, Terrorism, and Countering Violent Extremism: What the Next President Will Face.
Clarke remarked that the next president will face a markedly different Middle East from eight years ago. The volume seeks to make specific recommendations for action as opposed to just a discussion of the issues. Two major and overlapping problems are determining how we see the issues:
- The number and role of failed states in the Middle East, of which there are now six or seven. These will continue to be a source of terrorism for some time.
- The role of ideologies, in particular how to address the violent jihadist ideology that is highly attractive to disaffected youth, not only in the Middle East but across all regions of the world.
Regarding the US role in Syria, Clarke recommends that we must not abandon the principle of ‘Assad must go’, as the US role in the Middle East will be permanently undermined if we do. The US must also take leadership in supporting the stabilization, economic stimulation and return of refugees in post-Islamic State Mosul and Raqqa, as simply removing IS from cities will not resolve any problems. Salem also suggested that the economic rebuilding of conflict zones in the Middle East is an opportunity to coordinate with China, which has demonstrated interest in building infrastructure and ensuring trade relationships in the region.
As former Deputy Homeland Security Advisor to the President, Beers focused on counter extremism measures. Since 2001 the focus has been on preventing the arrival of foreign nationals intending to commit terrorist acts in the US. But the trend has now shifted to radicalized Americans. Ninety-four people have been killed in the US by domestic terrorists since 2001, with 63 of those in the last year alone. The next administration must therefore focus on identifying individuals prior to their radicalization and on redirecting them. As the government itself is not particularly successful in communicating these messages the approach needs broadening beyond law enforcement agencies. Local nongovernmental organizations and religious organizations will be helpful partners in identifying those exhibiting patterns of behavior that suggest a move towards violent extremism.
Clarke remarked that to law enforcement’s credit there has not been a major foreign attack on American soil since 2001, however the next president should identify these successful components of the counter extremism program and cut down the excesses and inefficiencies that also plague the program.
Salem considers the Middle East to be in a perfect storm of dysfunction due to the disrupted regional order, the number of failed and fragile states, and underlying stress factors including demographic issues, climate change, and competing ideologies. He suggests some of the concerns in the Middle East that have dominated administrations in the past, such as Weapons of Mass Destruction and the flow of oil through the Gulf, are largely stable at this point, and Russia and China do not pose a direct threat to US security. Therefore the threat of terrorism should continue to be the primary concern of the US in the region.
The next administration, Salem thought, should continue to address IS and then focus on al Qaeda, try to rebuild the regional order, make more concerted efforts to end civil wars, and help to rebuild failed states. Salem agreed wholeheartedly with Clarke that Syria will not be resolved while Assad is still in power, but while waiting for a political solution the US must address the suffering of civilians. He considers President Obama to have failed in addressing humanitarian concerns. In response to a question on the future of the Sykes-Picot borders, Salem explained that the Middle East’s problems are primarily attributable to poor governance and institutions rather than the borders. The current borders are likely to endure but changes such as decentralization and federalism within states will be important.
The problems the next administration will face in the Middle East are complex, but the volume focuses on realistic recommendations for what can be achieved. The US must balance its military strength with non-military assets and smart power. While the Obama administration has cautiously withdrawn the next administration must reassert American leadership in the region and focus on re-establishing a regional order.
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Peace picks, October 24 – 28
- Cultural Heritage: A Target in War, An Engine of Peace | Monday, October 24th | 8.45am – 5.30pm | US Institute of Peace | click HERE to register
Recent wars offer no greater example of cultural heritage turned to healing than the work in Afghanistan of the charity Turquoise Mountain, the subject of a stunning, 11-month exhibition by the Smithsonian Institution. “Turquoise Mountain: Artists Transforming Afghanistan,” at the Arthur M. Sackler Gallery, shows how historians, artisans, young students and communities are preserving and renewing traditions, crafts, economic livelihoods and a historic district of Kabul.
This symposium at the U.S. Institute of Peace will gather scholars, museum professionals and policymakers to explore what we have learned from recent wars about the role of cultural heritage. The daylong symposium aims to improve our understanding of how cultural heritage initiatives, such as Turquoise Mountain, can contribute to peace. How can this work empower marginalized women and communities? How can it strengthen the reconciliation, civic engagement and economic bases needed to build peace in the shadow of violent conflicts? Discussions will include the emerging role of new technologies and the ways in which Afghanistan’s lessons, with other case studies, apply elsewhere in the world. Funding for this symposium, and for the Smithsonian exhibition, has been provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
- Middle East and Regional Transition, Terrorism, and CVE: What The Next President Will Face | Monday, October 24th | 12pm – 1.30pm | Middle East Institute | click HERE to register
The Middle East Institute and the American Academy of Political and Social Science are pleased to host the special editors of the November volume of The ANNALS from the American Academy of Political and Social Science.
When the next American president takes office in January 2017, he or she will encounter a challenging landscape with regard to terrorism, countering violent extremism, regional turmoil, and failed states in the Middle East and surrounding region. Even if the United States and its allies disrupt ISIS and other terrorist organizations, the problems of violent Islamist extremism and the social and demographic conditions that enable it will persist.
The November volume of The ANNALS from the American Academy of Political and Social Science examines the state of these issues today and provides some paths and priorities for the next president and administration.
Please join Rand Beers (MEI Board Member), Richard A. Clarke (MEI Board Chairman), Emilian Papadopoulos (Good Harbor), and Paul Salem (MEI) for a discussion of these issues and what the next president can do about them. Mary Louise Kelly (NPR) will moderate the panel.
- Coping With the Refugee Crisis and Violent Conflict: Bold Ideas for the Next US President and UN Secretary General | Monday, October 24th | 4.30pm – 6pm | The Stimson Center | click HERE to register
Mandated to “save succeeding generations from the scourge of war” and to seek a “life in larger freedom”, the United Nations has helped the world succeed in halving extreme global poverty, slowing the spread of nuclear weapons, and managing many long-standing conflicts. Yet, hardly anybody with an insight into global politics or economics would use the words “just” or “secure” to describe the world today. From Syria and Ukraine to Afghanistan, Iraq, and sub-Saharan Africa, rising violence has erased human rights, increased mass atrocities, and reversed the global decline in political violence seen since the end of the Cold War. These deadly conflicts have further fueled more than 60 million displaced persons, creating the largest refugee crisis since World War II. Despite noteworthy efforts to contain these conflicts and the attendant refugee outflow — including President Obama’s September 20 Leaders’ Summit on the Global Refugee Crisis at U.N. Headquarters, mounting evidence suggests that the United Nations and international community are losing the battle against several of the most pressing security and justice challenges of our time.
The panel discussion will bring together leading policy analysts and former senior international and U.S. officials for a moderated discussion on how the next U.S. President and U.N. Secretary-General, with the support of countries and global civil society, can better cope with the current refugee crisis and the underlying violent conditions that sustain it.
Featuring:
Vikram Singh (moderator), Vice-President for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress, and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and South-East Asia
Ibrahim Gambari, former Nigerian Foreign Minister, U.N. Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs, and Co-Chair of the Commission on Global Security, Justice & Governance
Melanie Greenberg, President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Cindy Huang, Co-convenor of Idealists4Hillary, Visiting Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development, and former Deputy Vice President for Sector Operations at the Millennium Challenge Corporation
William Durch, Distinguished Fellow at Stimson and former Director of Research, Commission on Global Security, Justice & Governance
Hardin Lang, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress and a former senior U.N. Department of Peacekeeping Operations official for Afghanistan, Haiti, Iraq, Kosovo, and Mali.
- Geopolitics, Security, and Energy in the Arctic | Tuesday, October 25th | 1pm | Atlantic Council | click HERE to register
While commercial, environmental, and local community development aspects of the Arctic have received increasing attention in Washington in recent times, the US also faces growing national security challenges in the Arctic region. This is a worrying development, as the United States risks not being able to appropriately respond and posture for a rapidly changing security situation in the Arctic.
The Arctic is an inherently challenging region to operate in, with vast distances, limited infrastructure, and harsh climate. As human activity in the region grows, these conditions give rise to a range of pressing security issues, from Russia’s growing militarization of the region and China’s interest in the Arctic, to disaster and accident response and search and rescue operations.
Please join the Atlantic Council as it convenes a leading group of officials and experts to address these challenges and take forward the debate on how the opening Arctic region impacts US national security.
Featuring:
The Honorable Amy Pope – Vice Chair, White House Arctic Executive Steering Committee;
Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy Homeland Security Advisor; National Security Council Staff
Admiral Robert J. Papp, Jr., USCG (Ret.) – Special Representative for the Arctic, US Department of State;
General Joseph Ralston, USAF (Ret.) – Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe
NATO;
Dr. Janine Davidson – Under Secretary, US Navy
Rear Admiral Donald P. Loren, USN (Ret.) – Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense
Admiral James M. Loy, USCG (Ret.) – Former Deputy Secretary, Department of Homeland
Sherri Goodman – Former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense; Former CEO, Consortium for Ocean Leadership; Board Director, Atlantic Council
Rear Admiral David Titley, USN (Ret.) – Director, Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk, Pennsylvania State University
- War and Tweets: Terrorism in American in the Digital Age | Tuesday, October 25th | 3pm – 5pm | New America | click HERE to register
“Here in Orlando, we are reminded not only of our obligations as a country to be resolute against terrorists,” President Obama said in the wake of the Pulse nightclub shooting, “we’re also reminded…that what unites us is far stronger than the hate and the terror of those who target us.”
In the past year, terrorists have struck not only in Orlando, but in cities all over the world, from Beirut to Brussels, seeking to generate fear and anger. But what really determines public reaction? Is it, indeed, possible to be resolute in the face of terrorism?
Join us on October 25th at New America as we examine these questions and launch a new report as part of the “Building Civic Resilience to Terrorism” project, a partnership between New America and the charitable organization Democracy Fund Voice.
Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer will join the Hon. Sharon Burke, Director of the Resource Security program at New America, Juliette Kayyem, CNN National Security Analyst, and Dr. Peter Singer, Senior Fellow of the International Security Program at New America to discuss how political rhetoric, news media, and social media shape the public reaction to terrorism. The panel will also look at how to use strategic communications to build community resilience in the aftermath of an attack.
- The 25th Annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference | Wednesday, October 26th – Thursday, October 27th | 8am | National Council on US-Arab Relations | click HERE to register
Since 1991, the National Council’s annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference has gathered internationally renowned specialists to analyze, discuss, and debate issues of over-arching importance to the American and Arab people’s needs, concerns, interests, and key foreign policy objectives. Over two-days, Arab and American leaders from government, the military, business, and academe share privileged information, insight, and recommendations that are vitally important to the definition of issues, the ordering of priorities, and the direction of policy formulation and implementation in American and Arab governments alike.
The 25th Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference is scheduled for October 26-27, 2016, at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center in Washington, DC. The conference will again provide attendees with two days of shared ideas, intense discussions and debate, and extensive networking.
- Tackling the Root Causes of Conflict in the Middle East and How to Tackle Them | Thursday, October 27th | 9am – 12 am| Atlantic Council | click HERE to register
The decades-long unravelling of the economic and social fabric of the Middle East has played an instrumental role in the rise of civil strife. From undiversified economies and ineffective political institutions to inadequate education and youth unemployment, there are many root causes of conflict in the region.
Please join the Atlantic Council and Sweden’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs on Thursday, October 27 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. for a half-day conference that will explore the underlying causes of conflict in the Middle East and propose new ways to strengthen cooperation among the United States and its European allies in the region.
Annika Söder, Sweden’s State Secretary for Foreign Affairs, will deliver keynote remarks, followed by two panel discussions. A light breakfast will be served.
What happens in the Middle East will have major importance for the global system. An international peace settlement would help rebuild global cooperation and could be the first step toward a reinvigorated, rules-based order. Join our discussion to help shape and achieve this future scenario.
Featuring:
Paige Alexander – Assistant Administrator, Bureau for the Middle East, USAID
Michele Dunne – Director and Senior Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Paul Hughes – Interim Operations Chief for Middle East and Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Mohamed Younis – Senior Analyst, Gallup World Poll
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Russian views on Syria
On Tuesday the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies hosted a discussion with Ambassador Sergey I. Kislyak, Russian Federation Ambassador to the US.
Ambassador Kislyak acknowledged that things are not developing in the best fashion for Russian or US interests. The US has been taking unfriendly steps towards Russia, including the imposition of sanctions and calls to isolate and pressure Russia. He warned that these approaches do not work with Moscow. Russia, he said, has tried hard to work with the US and sees many opportunities for cooperation. These are being missed, but it is not Russia that started or is fuelling the current situation.
Regarding Syria, Kislyak believes that the US and Russia have a common enemy in terrorism. Russia is even more vulnerable to the risks of revived terrorist groups due to its regional proximity and an estimated 4000 Russian speakers fighting in Syria. Syria must continue to preserve the state as the alternative is total failure, which would be a greater problem for everyone. Russia came to Syria on the invitation of its government to assist in the fight against terrorism, no more and no less. Russia’s presence is consistent with international law, as opposed to the presence of other states that have not received the permission or invitation of the sovereign Syrian state.
Commenting on the current situation in Aleppo, Kislyak said that East Aleppo is controlled by Al Qaeda and other “so called” opposition forces who are holding the population hostage. He offered examples of Al Qaeda executions of civilians attempting to leave. He denied that hospitals have been bombed in Aleppo and stated that the Russians never attack civilians. If hospitals had been bombed it was because they had not been identified as such. The Russians are only targeting Al Qaeda. When they request that the US provide information of who is Al Qaeda and who is opposition they never receive a helpful response to deal with the issue in a precise manner. According to Kislyak, the US has been promising since February that the opposition would be separated from Al Qaeda but this has not happened.
Russia is still open to cooperation with the US on Syria. Priorities going forward are to stop the fighting, delineate between opposition forces and Al Qaeda, and start building the environment to start negotiations.
There are clearly areas of common interest for cooperation between the US and Russia on Syria. Both agree that Jabhat al-Nusra is an Al Qaeda force which must be dealt with. A totally failed state will be fertile ground for such groups. There is a disagreement however on the nature of the groups fighting Assad, with Kislyak denouncing ‘opposition forces’ as an American term. If Russia was invited by Assad to combat terrorists, and follows Assad’s definition of all opposition groups as terrorists, there is a fundamental gap in understanding that must be filled before progress in negotiations can be successful. There remains however the issue of separating moderate opposition forces from the complex network of militant groups operating in Syria, which the Russians see as one Washington must take on.
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Peace picks, October 10-14
- Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum: Fragile States and Conflict Prevention Challenges | Tuesday, October 11th | 9.30am – 11am | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | click HERE to register
Approximately 1 billion individuals live in “fragile and conflict-affected countries” across the world. A fragile state is considered one in which a lack of governmental capacity leaves citizens vulnerable to a range of shocks, amongst which violence prevails. With a lack of funding for conflict prevention in fragile states, these countries are left without recourse. It is important to examine the lifesaving role conflict prevention can provide these countries as they move towards sustaining long term peace and social cohesion.
Join us on October 11th for an in depth discussion with two leading experts:
Nancy Lindborg, President, United States Institute of Peace
Ozong Agborsangaya-Fiteu, Senior Operations Officer, World Bank FCV
The discussion will be moderated by:
Daniel Serwer, Director of the Conflict Management Program, SAIS.
The experts will discuss their work in fragility, conflict and violence and provide recommendations for promoting peace in the most fragile segments of the world.
- The Current State of US-Russian Relations with Ambassador Kislyak | Tuesday, October 11th | 4.30pm – 6pm | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | click HERE to register
Dean Vali Nasr, The Foreign Policy Institute and the SAIS Russia-Eurasia Club cordially invite you to join Ambassador Sergey I. Kislyak, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the US, for a discussion on “The Current State of US-Russian Relations.” The conversation will be moderated by Ambassador Shirin Tahir-Kheli, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Institute.
Ambassador Kislyak currently serves as the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the United States, and previously as the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2003 to 2008. Prior to that, he served simultaneously as the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Kingdom of Belgium and as the Permanent Representative of Russia to NATO in Brussels, Belgium, from 1998-2003.
- US Foreign Policy on Transitional Justice | Tuesday, October 11th | 5pm – 6.30pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | click HERE to register
The Human Rights Initiative invites you to attend a Book Launch and Conversation: U.S. Foreign Policy on Transitional Justice
Please join the Human Rights Initiative for the launch of U.S. Foreign Policy on Transitional Justice, (Oxford University Press, 2015) by Dr. Annie Bird. Featuring Keynote Speaker Stephen Rapp, Former Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues, U.S. Department of State, and author Dr. Annie Bird
- RAND Study: ‘Money as a Weapon’ Works in Afghanistan | Thursday, October 13th | 10am – 11.30am | US Institute of Peace | click HERE to register
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are raising new debate on their complex mixing of military operations and relief and development work. This includes CERP, which U.S. forces in Afghanistan have called “money as a weapon system.” Last year the U.S. government’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction raised questions about the accounting for $2.2 billion in CERP funds. RAND experts Charles Ries and Daniel Egel have completed a study on the impacts of CERP projects in Afghan localities. Their research finds that CERP projects improved local economic conditions and security for Afghans, helped build U.S. forces’ rapport with local residents, and eventually led to reduced hostilities. The authors will discuss their forthcoming RAND report, “Investing in the Fight: Assessing the Commander’s Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan.”
Scott Worden – Director of Afghanistan, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Charles Ries – Vice President, International at RAND
Daniel Egel – Economist, RAND
Stephen Lennon – Director, USAID Office of Transition Initiatives
- The Middle East and the Next Administration | Thursday, October 13th | 1pm – 3.30pm | Middle East Policy Council | click HERE to register
Please join us for our 86th Capitol Hill Conference on Thursday, October 13th from 1:00 p.m to 3:30 p.m. Our panel will offer diverse perspectives on the challenges for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and opportunities for the next administration.
Speakers:
Chairman, Projects International Inc.
Former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense
Former President, MEPC
President, Arab American Institute
Member, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom
Author of Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us and Why it Matters
Senior Fellow & Director, Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Former Senior Professional Staff Member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Former Iran Team Chief, Office of the Under-Secretary of Defense for Policy
Former Special Advisor on the Middle East, Office of the Under-Secretary of Defense for Policy
- State-Building and Economic Development in Palestine Without a Political Horizon: The Promise and Pitfalls | Thursday, October 13th | 2pm – 3.15pm | New America Foundation | click HERE to register
The possibility of relaunching meaningful peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians is remote given the political realities in both countries. The challenges facing states across the Middle East—civil conflict, refugee flows, and the threat posed by terrorism—have dominated the policymaking space to the exclusion of Israeli-Palestinian peace. The priority seems now to have become one focused on preventing violent extremism from taking root in Palestine, shoring up the Palestinian institutions of government and supporting economic development and opportunity for Palestinians until the environment is ripe for a comprehensive agreement.
On October 13, New America will host an expert panel from Al Shabaka—The Palestinian Policy Network—that will explore the promise and pitfalls of development and “economic peace” in the absence of a political horizon in the occupied Palestinian territory. The panelists argue that a focus on economic development should complement rather than be seen as a substitute for progress on the political front. They also examine efforts to nurture the Palestinian social, political, and cultural fabric as the occupation enters its 50th year.
Introduction:
Zaha Hassan, Esq. – Middle East Fellow, New America
Panelists:
Nur Arafeh – Jerusalem-Based Al-Shabaka Policy Fellow
Tareq Baconi – DC-Based Al-Shabaka Policy Fellow
Nadia Hijab – London-Based Al-Shabaka Executive Director
- A New Strategy for US-Iran Relations | Friday, October 14th | 12pm | Atlantic Council | click HERE to register
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series – A New Strategy for US-Iran Relations
A conversation with:
Ellen Laipson – Distinguished Fellow, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council
Michael Connell – Director, Iranian Studies Program, Center for Naval Analyses
Amir Handjani – Fellow, Truman National Security Project
The implications of the P5+1 nuclear agreement with Iran for the regional order could include prolonged instability and insecurity, but also new opportunities. Dynamic and innovative thinking on how regional and international stakeholders can help tackle present and future challenges and work toward a more secure and stable Middle East is very much needed. A New Strategy for US-Iran Relations, written by Ms. Ellen Laipson, Atlantic Council distinguished fellow and president emeritus of the Stimson Center, constitutes an important addition to this larger conversation. Dr. Michael Connell, director of the Iranian Studies Program and the Center for Naval Analyses, and Mr. Amir Handjani, board director at the Atlantic Council and Truman National Security Project fellow, will join Laipson for a discussion of this latest installment in the Atlantic Council Strategy Paper series.
The paper features a foreword by former US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, and proposes a US policy towards Iran that carefully balances effective deterrence and containment measures with more proactive engagement, with the goals of reducing the prospects for military confrontation with Iran and improving the regional security environment. Laipson’s strategy rests on several policy themes: expanding diplomatic engagement, sustaining security cooperation, improving mutual understanding, clarifying economic and financial opportunities, and protecting the nonproliferation success. Notably, this is not a plan for navigating the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but rather is a forward-looking strategy document for the next decade.
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The toughest nut in the Middle East
The Middle East Institute held their 7th annual conference on Turkey last week, gathering regional experts to discuss Turkey’s turbulent domestic politics and regional role. This post focuses on the regional issues discussed.
Haim Malka of the Center for Strategic and International Studies focused on Turkey-Israel relations. The reconciliation agreement following Israel’s 2010 raid on a Turkish flotilla headed to Gaza is being implemented. This is a mutually-beneficial, low-cost measure. Strategic cooperation is likely to remain limited.
Syria will test the renewed relationship as it is an arena where both Turkey and Israel’s interests intersect. Israel’s policy on Syria has to date been confused and vague, perhaps intentionally so, but ultimately the Israelis want to see a Syria with minimal Iranian influence. The fall of Iran’s ally Assad may be assumed beneficial to Israel, but the Israelis seem to have followed a ‘better the devil you know’ approach so far and do not appear to be supporting alternative political actors in Syria.
Bill Park of King’s College, London discussed Turkey’s relations with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq, which saw marked improvement in 2009 and 2010 due to trade and energy connections, shared mistrust of Maliki’s Baghdad government, and President Barzani’s role as a potential partner in the peace process with Turkey’s own Kurds (the PKK). While these foundations for positive relations remain, Turkey’s refusal to support Syrian Kurds in the fight against IS, Turkey’s re-establishing a relationship with Baghdad following the replacement of Maliki by Abadi, and a change in perception of Barzani’s leadership record have undermined the rapprochement.
Senior Associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Karim Sadjadpour discussed Turkey-Iran relations. There are notable commonalities between the two states as they suffer both a superiority and inferiority complex – both do not see their current status in world affairs as reflecting their histories as great empires. There is also a strong shared cultural history. The Iran-Turkey border has proven stable in an otherwise turbulent region for centuries. Also important is their economic partnership, with shared gas projects and common concern with Kurdish independence.
Having suffered from terrorist attacks, Turkey is disappointed in Iran following Assad’s lead, especially in ignoring the radical Islamist threat in Syria. Upcoming events could exacerbate frictions between Turkey and Iran. These include the upcoming US presidential election, the May 2017 presidential elections in Iran, and whether the nuclear deal lasts ten years.
Presenting the complex relationship of Turkey, the US and Kurds was Amberin Zaman, Public Policy Fellow with the Wilson Center. She believes the US has an opportunity to use its leverage with the Syrian Kurds (the PYD) and Turkey to revive the Turkey-Kurdish peace process. This will require the US to abandon the fiction that the PYD and PKK are separate groups. The PYD is not seeking an independent state but rather a subnational federal unit within Syria, which the Kurds term “Rojava.”
While Turkey is unable to determine a military outcome, Ankara holds considerable soft power, especially in assisting the moderate opposition.
It was agreed among all the panelists that the US must articulate its policy for the region, and Syria in particular, as Turkey and its neighbors are looking for US leadership and unwilling to pursue their own policies without clarification from Washington. That is proving the toughest nut to crack in the Middle East.
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What to do in Syria
Last Friday the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission held a public hearing on the humanitarian crisis in Syria, in particular the options and dilemmas confronting policymakers concerned with civilian protection. Hosted by Co-Chairman James McGovern, the hearing featured two panels with testimonies from witnesses to the crisis.
According to Dr Ahmad Tarakji, President of the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS), his organization has established more than 120 hospitals and clinics in Syria and neighboring countries with more than 1700 physicians and nurses. In 2015 alone SAMS facilities treated more than 2.5 million patients. However their work is seriously challenged by the deliberate targeting of hospitals and physicians. At the height of violence in July, attacks on a hospital occurred every 18 hours and the loss of a SAMS physician every two weeks. There have also been disturbing accounts of physicians being targeted after leaving the hospitals and clinics. Tarakji highlighted the routine regime denial of medical evacuations, causing children to die despite full plans and funding in place for their transfer. One of his key policy recommendations is the development of transparent medical evacuation processes in Syria free from political influence, as well as independent investigation into the attacks on medical services.
Richard Leach, President and CEO of World Food Program USA, said WFP is providing food assistance to 4.2 million in Syria, 1 million in besieged areas and 1.6 refugees in the region. But there are still 3.7 million civilians in need of aid who are not being reached. The primary issue is not resources, as Syria is one of the few fully-funded WFP operations. The issue is access to civilian populations in need due to violence as well as harassment at checkpoints. Leach recommends measures to ensure immediate and unconditional access to all areas, protection of relief workers, and an end to harassment at checkpoints. He also pointed towards a growing global gap between need and resources and urged the US to lead in advocating that other countries to contribute to international aid organizations’ funding needs.
As Director of the Norwegian Refugee Council USA, Joel Charny described Syria as the most challenging environment NRC has faced, though through patient negotiations and working with local partners they have been able to reach 1 million people over the last two years and are building local response capacity. In regime areas, NRC faces tight political control and painstaking negotiations for permission to operate. In opposition areas, movement is freer but there are security issues and concerns whether aid channeled through local partners is reaching the most vulnerable people. He presented four feasible recommendations to enhance the protection of civilians:
- Increase access to civil documentation to enable freedom of movement and access to services;
- Enable front line access to de-mining groups (in the example given, 126 people were reportedly killed by remnant explosives on their return to liberated Manbij);
- Ensure continued access to asylum, with an urgent need to support neighboring states carrying the heaviest refugee burdens; and
- Guarantee protection to humanitarian workers, with a particular warning about negative precedents set in Syria.
Sarah Holewinski, Senior Fellow with the Center for a New American Security, discussed strategies Syrian civilians have developed in response to the crisis. First, early-warning systems for bombings have been developed with spotter networks watching the skies and broadcasting warnings. These have been successful in preventing casualties and reducing trauma. Second, schools and hospitals are being constructed in safer ways, with air raid huts nearby, operating theaters in basements, and a series of small clinics around conflict zones to enable easier casualty access. Third, local defense and rescue forces have been established and are highly successful in rescue operations. Most visible is Syrian Civil Defense, also known as the White Helmets, however Holewinski noted that there are countless others undertaking valuable work in the field. Her primary recommendation is that the US directs funds to some of these civil society activities, especially given the humanitarian aid access issues noted by some of the other panelists.
Naomi Kikoler, Deputy Director of the Simon-Skojdt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, highlighted the responsibility to protect and respond to crimes against humanity. Protection of civilians should be the priority and must not be undermined by politics. The US must also strive towards a durable solution to the conflict. She noted that ignoring the crisis creates challenges to US strategic interests as allies are weakened, enemies emboldened, and anti-US entities arise from the conflict.
As the Deputy Director for Investigations and Operations with the Commission for International Justice and Accountability, Chris Engels spoke of atrocity accountability efforts for Syria. International actors are interviewing victims and documenting crimes, and CIJA is aiming to link individuals with crimes and present complete case files for the prosecution of individuals up the hierarchy of the regime. He noted that transitional justice is essential to enduring peace. The US should be developing a long-term strategy for mechanisms to achieve accountability and justice.
Co-Chairman McGovern emphasized in closing that Congress should hear this testimony and not shy away from debating the issues at stake, such as the establishment of safe zones inside Syria.
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