Category: Nathaniel Haas
Humanitarian challenges in North Korea
June 11 the Cato Institute hosted an event on North Korea giving a humanitarian perspective from individuals who have worked in North Korea. The panel featured Heidi Linton, Executive Director of Christian Friends of Korea, Randall Spadoni, North Korea Program Director for World Vision, and Daniel Jasper, Public Education and Advocacy Coordinator for Asia for the American Friends Service Committee (AFSC). The panel was moderated by Doug Brandow, a senior fellow at Cato.
Jasper gave an overview of the AFSC’s 66-year effort in North Korea since the organization first answered calls for NGOs to help with reconstruction in 1953, shortly after the cease-fire was agreed upon. Jasper said food security is integral to the current conflict, but sanctions put in place to pressure North Korea restrain humanitarian missions. Travel is disrupted and organizations need to apply for special waivers, which are costly and take up to several months to receive. More than ten million North Koreans are estimated to be food insecure. Jasper also touched on cultural exchanges, reuniting families, and returning the remains of fallen soldiers from the Korean war as efforts that can help build bridges and improve relations without much cost. AFSC recommends removing travel restrictions, adhering to humanitarian exemption clauses, and seeing humanitarian issues as bridges instead of a stick.
Heidi Linton shared personal stories from her recent trip to North Korea with the Christian Friends of Korea, during which she helped set up a hepatitis-B clinic and treat over 360 patients. She too emphasized the unintended consequences of sanctions on ordinary civilians. Last fall’s flooding caused widespread infrastructure damage. Replacement parts for construction and farm equipment are limited due to sanctions. Linton said the US has the capability to help the suffering population through humanitarian missions and show North Koreans that America has good intentions.
Randall Spandoni’s work in North Korea focuses on disaster relief and providing clean water to North Korea’s population, of which 40% does not have regular access to clean water. By building water wells, time is freed up for individuals to work on trade or business and spend time with their families. The health implications of access to clean water are significant. Spandoni echoed his fellow panel members’ view that sanctions and import restrictions hamper NGO humanitarian efforts in North Korea, saying his organization’s latest shipment of well-building equipment took 1.5 years to approve.
Asked in what way the missions have been hampered or restricted by the North Korean government, Linton said that everything done in North Korea is managed by North Korean counterparts and that trust and freedom to act have been built slowly over the past decades. Spandoni added that the general lack of trust makes everything take longer than it would elsewhere. “The bureaucratic system in North Korea is just not structured well to receive aid,” Spandoni noted, adding that the US also imposes many hurdles.
Asked to what extent the aging infrastructure and lack of services is due to capacity issues and to what extent the government just prioritizes other projects, no one on the panel had a clear answer, but Linton restated that the lack of resources, money, and general know-how definitely play into it.
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Peace Picks June 17-23
1. Transatlantic Cooperation in an Era of Crisis and Competition|June 17|3:15pm-5:00pm|Hudson Institute|1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
Hudson Institute will host distinguished scholars from France’s Institut Montaigne for a discussion on transatlantic relations. Founded in 2000, Institut Montaigne is a pioneering independent think tank dedicated to public policy in France and Europe. Panelists will include Michel Duclos, special advisor on Geopolitics at Institut Montaigne and former French Ambassador to Syria and Switzerland; and François Godement, senior advisor for Asia at Institut Montaigne.
Against a backdrop of surging populism in democracies and rising authoritarianism worldwide, Europe finds itself at the center of a return to great power rivalry between China and the United States. Disputes over trade and security are straining longstanding areas of cooperation even as global power centers shift and new partnerships beckon. How should policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and capitals across Europe respond to these challenges? What is the future of the transatlantic relationship in a rapidly changing world?
Speakers:
Michel Duclos, Special Advisor, Geopolitics, Institut Montaigne and former French Ambassador to Syria and Switzerland
François Godement, Senior Advisor for Asia, Institut Montaigne
Ben Judah, Research Fellow, Hudson Institute
Peter Rough, Fellow, Hudson Institute
Ken Weinstein, President and CEO, Hudson Institute
2. South Sudan’s Stalled Path to Peace|June 18|9:30am-11:30am|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
In early May, South Sudan’s ruling and opposition parties agreed to extend the pre-transitional period of the South Sudan peace agreement leading to the formation of a unified Government for an additional six months. The extension of this period presents an opportunity to reflect on the progress and challenges to establishing a just peace in the country. South Sudanese citizens are desperate for peace, but many are asking what channels exist to support a meaningful reduction of violence. Between January and March alone, 25,000 people fled the country, adding to the already two million South Sudanese refugees worldwide. Without full implementation of the peace process, national- and local-level conflicts will continue to threaten hard-won development gains and require greater investments in lifesaving humanitarian aid.
Please join USIP for a look at South Sudan’s peace agreement and the measures required to build peace in the young nation. In this live-streamed discussion, experts from USIP, the Enough Project, and Democracy International will offer concrete, evidence-based recommendations for how to mitigate conflict, promote peace and advance accountability.
Speakers
David Acuoth, Founder, Council on South Sudanese-American Relations
Brian Adeba, Deputy Director of Policy, Enough Project, @kalamashaka
Mark Ferullo, Senior Advisor, The Sentry
Morgan Simpson, Deputy Director of Programs, Democracy International
Susan Stigant, Director of Africa Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace, @SusanStigant
3. Is the US Decoupling from Asia’s Economic Architecture|June 19|9:00am-1:30pm|Center for Strategic and International Studies|1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The CSIS Japan Chair, the CSIS Simon Chair, and JETRO cordially invite you to join us for the annual CSIS-JETRO conference.
9:00-9:05 Welcoming Remarks
John J. Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS
9:05-9:35 Opening Remarks (TBD)
9:35-10:00 Keynote Address
Nobuhiko Sasaki, Chairman and CEO, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO)
10:00-11:15 Regional Perspectives on Indo-Pacific Economic Integration
China:
Xinquan Tu, Dean and Professor, Center for WTO Studies, University of
International Business & Economics, Beijing
Japan:
Yasuyuki Todo, Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Waseda, University
ASEAN:
Deborah Elms, Founder and Executive Director, Asian Trade Centre,Singapore
Moderator: Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President; William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy and Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, CSIS
11:15-11:30 Break
11:30-12:30 Status and Impact of U.S. Trade Policy
Charles Freeman, Senior Vice President for Asia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Lorraine Hawley, Senior Director, International Government Relations,Archer Daniels Midland Company
Aaron Cooper, Vice President, Global Policy, BSA | The Software Alliance
Moderator:
Michael J. Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS;Director of Asian Studies, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service,Georgetown University
12:30-13:30 Luncheon Address (TBD)
13:30 Adjourn
4. 2019 Atlantic Council-East Asia Foundation Strategic Dialogue|June 19|9:30am|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Asia Security Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, for the 2019 Atlantic Council-East Asia Foundation Strategic Dialogue. This day-long conference will explore the current state of the United States and Republic of Korea’s ongoing negotiations with North Korea and the broader strategic picture developing in the Indo-Pacific. The Strategic Dialogue will feature keynote addresses by US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun and ROK Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Do-hoon Lee. This will be H.E. Lee’s first public address in the United States, as well as the first time both Special Representatives will speak on the same stage.
One year ago, President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un met in Singapore for an unprecedented, historic summit that concluded with a promise to deliver lasting peace to a denuclearized Korean peninsula. Today, the question remains: will this promised future become a reality? Will the coming months see a continued stalemate in negotiations, a major crisis, or a dramatic breakthrough? Ultimately, how will developments on the peninsula shape the Republic of Korea’s role in the broader Indo-Pacific under intensifying US-China strategic competition?
Breakfast and lunch will be provided.
Agenda:
WELCOME REMARKS (9:30 a.m. – 9:50 a.m.)
Mr. Barry Pavel, Senior Vice President, Arnold Kanter Chair, and Director,Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Minister Sung-hwan Kim, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Republic of Korea; Board Member, East Asia Foundation
KEYNOTE REMARKS (9:50 a.m. – 10:50 a.m.)
The Hon. Stephen Biegun, US Special Representative for North Korea,US Department of State
H.E. Do-hoon Lee, ROK Special Representative for Korean PeninsulaPeace and Security Affairs,ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs
PANEL DISCUSSION: SEEKING A POST-HANOI BREAKTHROUGH ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA(11:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.)
Dr. Toby Dalton, Co-Director, Nuclear Policy Program,Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
H.E. Jong-dae Kim, Member, 20th National Assembly; Head of the Foreign Affairs and Security Division;Member of the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee;Head of the Foreign Affairs and Security Division; Member, Justice Party
H.E. Jae-jung Lee, Member, 20th National Assembly; Spokesperson, Democratic Party of Korea
Amb. Joseph Yun, Former US Special Representative for North Korea Policy, US Department of State; Senior Adviser, Asia Program, United States Institute of Peace
Mr. Barry Pavel (Moderator), Senior Vice President, Arnold Kanter Chair, and Director,Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
LUNCH CONVERSATION (1:00 p.m. – 1:45 p.m.)
Amb. Paula J. Dobriansky, Former US Under Secretary of State; Senior Fellow, The Future of Diplomacy Project, JFK Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Dr. Chung-in Moon, Special Adviser to the President for Unification, Foreign, and National Security Affairs, Republic of Korea
PANEL DISCUSSION: CHARTING KOREA’S ROLE IN US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC(2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.)
The Hon. Ami Bera, US House of Representatives (D-CA); Chair, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, House Foreign Affairs Committee; Co-Chair, Congressional Caucus on Korea
H.E. Ihk-pyo Hong, Member, 20th National Assembly; Vice Chairman of the National Assembly’s Public Administration and Security Committee; Chief Spokesman, Democratic Party of Korea
Prof. Jaeho Hwang, Director of Global Security Cooperation Center, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies
H.E. Sun-suk Park, Member, 20th National Assembly; Member, National Assembly’s Science, ICT, Future Planning, and Communications Committee,Member, Bareunmirae Party
The Hon. Ted S. Yoho DVM, US House of Representatives (R-FL), Lead Republican, Subcommittee on Asia, The Pacific, and Nonproliferation; Member, Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, and Trade, House Foreign Affairs Committee
Dr. Miyeon Oh (Moderator), Director and Senior Fellow, Asia Security Initiative,Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
CLOSING REMARKS (3:30 p.m. – 3:45 p.m.)
Mr. Barry Pavel, Senior Vice President, Arnold Kanter Chair, and Director, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
5. Sixth Annual Building a Competitive U.S.-Mexico Border Conference|June 20|8:30am-4:30pm|Woodrow Wilson Center|1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
The Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and the Border Trade Alliance invite you to save the date for our sixth annual high-level “Building a Competitive U.S.-Mexico Border” conference, which will focus on improving border management in order to strengthen the competitiveness of both the United States and Mexico. Topics covered at the conference will include the USMCA (the renegotiated NAFTA), strengthening security and efficiency at border ports of entry, the impact of tariffs and reduced staffing on trade, and growing crossborder cooperation for regional economic development.
Confirmed Speakers*
Senator John Cornyn (R-TX)
Congressman Will Hurd (R-TX 23)
Ambassador Martha Bárcena, Ambassador of Mexico to the United States
C.J. Mahoney, Deputy United States Trade Representative
John Sanders, Acting Commissioner, U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Gustavo de la Fuente, Executive Director, Smart Border Coalition
Lance Jungmeyer, President, Fresh Produce Association of the Americas
Mario Lozoya, Executive Director, Greater Brownsville Incentives Corporation
Federico Schaffler, Director, Texas Center for Border Economic Enterprise Development, Texas A&M International University
Christopher Wilson, Deputy Director, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center
Britton Clarke, President, Border Trade Alliance
6. Russian Influence in Venezuela: What Should the United States Do?|June 20|9:00am|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
As a wave of public support for democratic transition is sweeping Venezuela and the international community, Moscow continues to stand by Nicolás Maduro. Displays of military force, Rosneft’s ownership of 49.9 percent of CITGO shares, and billions in loans to Maduro, showcase Russia’s rooted geopolitical and economic interests in Venezuela and the hemisphere.
What drives Russian support for Maduro? What is its role in the unfolding humanitarian, economic, and political crisis? How can the United States counter Russian involvement in Venezuela?
Join the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and Eurasia Center on Thursday, June 20, 2019 from 9:00 to 10:30 a.m. for a public event that will discuss the extent of Russian involvement in Venezuela, Moscow’s motivations and possible next moves, and how the United States should react.
Breakfast will be provided.
Speakers to be announced.
7. The Global Peace Index 2019 Launch|June 20|9:00am-10:30am|Center for Strategic and International Studies|1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The Human Rights Initiative of CSIS invites you to a public launch event of the 2019 Global Peace Index (GPI). The Global Peace Index is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, ranking 163 countries and territories according to their level of relative peacefulness. Created by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace and its economic value.
The report findings will be followed by a panel discussion considering the implications of closing civic space and inequality for peace. It will look particularly at the factors that IEP has found to be necessary preconditions for peace in its Positive Peace Report, many of which rely on an active civil society and limits on inequality.
This event is made possible by the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP).
Featuring:
Stephen Lennon, Senior Policy Adviser to USAID’s bureau of Democracy Conflict and Humanitarian Affairs (DCHA)
Shannon Green,Senior Director of Programs at the Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC)
Jonathan Drimmer, Senior Adviser at Business for Social Responsibility (BSR)
Laurie Smolenski, Outreach and Development Officer, Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
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Too big to fail or bail
On June 4 the American Enterprise Institute hosted a panel discussion titled “Europe’s Populist and Brexit Economic Challenge” moderated by Alex J. Pollock of the R Street Institute and featuring Lorenzi Forni (Prometeia Associazione), Vitor Gaspar (International Monetary Fund), Desmond Lachman (AEI) and Athanasios Orphanides (MIT). The panel discussion was centered around Italy’s rising populism and economic woes, with a short discussion about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit causing damage to the European economy.
Gaspar showed that only 24% Europeans polled believe in the political system at both the national level and at the European level, while 38% of people said neither works. Voter turnout in both national and European parliament elections is going down, while the share of votes going to populist parties has increased. The mainstream parties are losing votes. In 2019 there was almost a 50/50 split between votes for populist parties and those for establishment parties. With parliament more fragmented than ever, coalitions of at least 4 parties are needed to get a majority, which makes governing difficult. The 2014 and 2019 voter maps of Germany show virtually no change, while Italy’s map shifted solidly populist. “Support for populism in Western Europe is strongly correlated with exposure to the shocks of globalization,”Gaspar said. Europe needs risk-sharing mechanisms.
Orphanides sees Europe stuck between two competing narratives. The technocratic elite believes the EU has been an economic success in the past decade or two. Others think the prescriptions by the technocratic elite have not served the European population as a whole and have instead acted for the benefit of one or two member states. In the latter view, the mainstream parties of the past have to be kicked out of government and replaced by new parties that will serve the people better.
Orphanides believes there is some truth in both narratives, but people presenting them fail to talk directly with each other, causing tension. “Europe is not a club of equals” he said, citing mismanagement of the euro crisis as the root of many present crises such as Brexit. Elites in Brussels and Frankfurt drive the agenda and have to acknowledge what has gone wrong. “Instead,” Orphanides said, “they are still in the denial phase.”
Moving on to Italy, Orphanides declared “the fact that the euro has been a disaster should be acknowledged.” Italy is a rich country and has been running a primary surplus for twenty years, so there is no reason for the Italian economy to be doing as poorly as it is. Lachman agreed a primary surplus is necessary but said the current 1% surplus is nowhere near sufficient and has to be closer to 3-4% to have a noticeable impact.
Forni disagreed, saying Italy joined the European Union because its public finances, inflation, and debt were out of control in the 1980s. You should not take averages when looking at Italy’s economy over the past twenty years. The 2008 financial crisis and the euro crisis in 2011 were damaging. Since 2013, things have gotten better and Italy has strengthened its position.
In Forni‘s view, Italian economic performance was poor because the productive structure of Italy in 1998, built on small, family-owned businesses with limited IT capabilities, was not ready for globalization. Add an aging population and brain drain, and it is easy to see why Italy suffered economically. Italy’s current debt is sustainable given no further crises the likes of 2008 or 2011, but Lachman cautioned that the Italian debt issue has to be addressed because Italy is ten times the size of Greece and bailing it out in a crisis would be a massive undertaking. “We might find ourselves in a situation in which Italy is too big to fail, but too big to bail” Lachman said.
Forni then mentioned three things Italy needs to thrive in Europe: A debt target of 90% of GDP (Italy’s debt to GDP ratio was 132.20% in 2018), a plan of structural reforms to address issues of tax evasion and corruption, and an increase in risk-sharing at the European level. Safe assets, the European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS), and an increase in labor mobility could help reduce and share risks.
Lachman noted he was pessimistic about Europe’s future for 4 reasons:
- Disappointing economic and political developments;
- Fundamental flaws in the euro which he doesn’t believe can be fixed;
- Major challenges in Italy and Brexit;
- The limited room for policy maneuver in Europe.
Lachman also addressed the north-south economic divide in Europe, showing that Italy’s per capita income is lower now than it was twenty years ago while Germany’s has risen. Unemployment in the southern parts of Europe remains much higher than in the north. These differences cause political resentment between the north and the south which, combined with the weakened center in EU politics and the fragmentation of parliament, make reform difficult. “The euro is fundamentally flawed,” Lachman said. “A country with low productivity like Italy cannot survive in an economic policy straitjacket with a high productivity country like Germany.” A key issue is the lack of a European fiscal union. Germany requiring a balanced budget limits its expenditures in economic downturns, while Italy’s weak banking system and unsustainable finances hold it back.
Lachman also mentioned Germany and the US trade war. “Germany has a highly export dependent economy” and cannot afford the resulting economic slowdown and falling exports. Adding a 25% tariff on German automobiles exported to the United States would be catastrophic.
On Brexit, Orphanides said a hard Brexit would be bad for the UK and the EU, but he accuses the EU of only negotiating deals that punish the UK for leaving instead of negotiating a win-win deal. To him the only light at the end of the tunnel is the possibility of stopping the clock on Brexit to keep negotiating or a second referendum. Lachman pointed out that both candidates to take over for Theresa May have talked about the UK leaving the EU on October 31 with or without a deal.
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Trust but verify
On May 29 the Hudson Institute hosted Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley Jr., who talked about the arms control landscape in regard to Russia and China, focusing on the modernization of their nuclear arsenals. Lt. Gen. Ashley’s remarks and the audience Q&A were followed by a panel discussion featuring Dr. James H. Anderson, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities, U.S. Department of Defense, Tim Morrison, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Biodefense, National Security Council (NSC), and Thomas DiNanno, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense Policy, Emerging Threats, and Outreach, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, U.S. Department of State.
Ashley explained how Russia has been upgrading the capacity of its nuclear forces. In addition to a growing stockpile of nuclear weapons Russia has been adding new capabilities to its arsenal, especially non-strategic nuclear weapons with greater range, accuracy and lower yield. The DIA estimates Russia has up to 2000 of these new non-strategic warheads. Russia has also explored new nuclear delivery systems, such as nuclear powered and nuclear armed underwater drones and nuclear armed cruise missiles. Furthermore, Russia’s new 9M729 intermediate range ballistic missile violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
Russia has also worked on their upload capability. Currently the New START treaty between the United States and Russia limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550, and the number of platforms deployed to 700. Russia, Ashley says, has been working on delivery systems with additional warhead capacity, allowing them to quickly go beyond the New START limit of 1550 warheads if needed. Russia prioritizes its nuclear programs over others, having increased the ROSATOM (the State Nuclear Energy Corporation) budget by over 30% in recent years. Russia sees nuclear weapons as the ultimate war fighting tool and considers “nuclear use to compel and end a conventional conflict.” This modernization is not only aimed at deterring the United States, but also at China and its growing nuclear arsenal.
China, Ashley says, will at least double its nuclear stockpile in the next decade and launched more ballistic missiles last year than the rest of the world combined. Had China been a signatory to the INF their DF-26 and DF-21 missiles, which could be used regionally in the South China Sea, would have been in violation of the treaty. They are also working on new road and silo-based ICBMs as well as new nuclear submarines and nuclear bombers, completing their nuclear triad. China may well be preparing nuclear test sites for year-round use and their behavior is inconsistent with the rules and intent of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), Ashley says.
Ashley pointed out that Russia does not have a “no first-use policy” and considers the first use of nuclear weapons an opportunity to control escalation. A translated phrase from an interview with Russian officials comes out to “escalate to win.”
During the panel discussion, Tim Morrison explained that the world has moved on from the Cold War and limited bilateral treaties and needs better and wider arms control. China should now be included in nuclear arms treaties. Russian violations of the INF treaty compel the US to consider if it can afford to be the only country bound to it. The biggest obstacle to effective arms control is the need for verification measures and rules for timely and consequential punishment for treaty violations and non-compliance.
DiNanno echoed Morrison’s sentiment that more effective verification and enforcement measures are needed. This is only possible if there is trust among the US, Russia, and China. Quoting President Reagan, DiNanno said the US should “trust but verify.” The US should withdraw from the INF treaty in early August if Russia is not in compliance by then.
Anderson discussed the differences between the US, Russian, and Chinese modernization programs. Russia has an estimated 2000 warheads not covered by the New START treaty. Moscow’s talk about nuclear weapons as well as actions in Georgia and Ukraine are troubling. Similarly, Beijing is rapidly expanding its arsenal and is closing in on the nuclear triad following President Xi’s call for China to acquire a first-tier military.
In contrast, US modernization is not nearly as far along as Russia’s, which is almost 80% complete. The US is not building new nuclear weapons, has run no nuclear tests since the 1994 agreement, and is still using older equipment. Anderson says:
The US is in the infancy of its modernization. The Ohio-class nuclear submarines, first introduced in 1981, are set to be replaced in 2031 after 50 years in service. The Minuteman III ICBM was first deployed in 1970 and is only due for replacement in 2029. The B-20 program will eventually replace the aging B-52 and B-2a bomber fleet but is set to augment them first. More importantly, unlike Russia and China the United States has been very transparent about its nuclear arsenal.
Anderson also mentions the importance of US modernization for deterrence, establishing a backbone for US efforts and “giving our diplomats a strong hand in negotiating arms control.
With the advancement of Russian and Chinese missile technology the panelists brought up the necessity for the US to continue to develop and improve its missile defense systems. Russia and China, however, routinely complain about them. Anderson pointed out the double standard in their critique: China and Russia are both interested in missile defense themselves, with Russia having set up 68 missile defense batteries around Moscow alone. Heinrichs asked why the US has not increased its missile defense budget to counter the threats from Russian offensive nuclear arsenals and capabilities. Anderson spointed to work being done in cooperation with NATO allies to increase missile defense through newer technologies such as boost-stage defense and lasers.
The biggest takeaway arose from discussion of Russia’s nuclear test sites and their interpretation of the 0-yield nuclear testing norm. Morrison said he would not conduct diplomacy in public but also commented “Russia has taken actions, not preparations, which run counter to its public statements.” Neither Ashley nor the panel members would directly state that Russia has tested nuclear weapons recently, but all confirmed it with their responses. Everyone agreed that now more than ever good faith negotiations and working multilateral treaties are needed to prevent further escalation and a renewed nuclear arms race.
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Peace Picks June 3-June 9
1. How Security Cooperation Advances US Interests|June 4th, 2019|10:00am-11:00am|Brookings Institution|Saul Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
One of the United States’ key strategic advantages is a global web of alliances that allow it to project power and influence abroad. Defense security cooperation includes defense trade and arms transfers, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, institutional capacity building, and international education and training activities. The United States leverages these programs to ensure its allies and partners have the capability to defend themselves and carry out multinational operations while also building up relationships that promote American interests. As near-peer competitors seek to erode U.S. technological advantages, the importance of security cooperation will only grow in the coming years.
On June 4, Brookings will host a conversation between Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon and Lt. General Charles Hooper, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), on how DSCA advances U.S. foreign policy objectives in an era increasingly driven by great power competition.
2. Europe’s Populist and Brexit Economic Challenge|June 4th, 2019|2:00pm-4:00pm|American Enterprise Institute|Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Europe’s political landscape is becoming much more challenging, as evidenced by the strong showing of populist parties in the recent European parliamentary elections and by the deepening Brexit crisis. This event will examine how serious these challenges are to the European economic outlook and the economic policies that might be needed to meet these challenges.
Agenda:
1:45 PM
Registration
2:00 PM
Introduction:
Desmond Lachman, AEI
2:05 PM
Panel discussion
Panelists:
Lorenzo Forni, Prometeia Associazione
Vitor Gaspar, International Monetary Fund
Desmond Lachman, AEI
Athanasios Orphanides, MIT
Moderator:
Alex J. Pollock, R Street Institute
3:15 PM
Q&A
4:00 PM
Adjournment
3. Countering Terrorism in the Middle East: A Situation Report|June 4th, 2019|3:00-4:30pm|Middle East Institute|1319 18thSt NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a public panel on countering terrorism in the Middle East, featuring high-level panelists representing the United States, the United Nations and the United Kingdom: Ambassador James Jeffrey, Edmund Fitton-Brown and Jessica Jambert-Gray.
The territorial defeat of ISIS’s self-declared Caliphate in March 2019 was a significant victory in the fight against terrorism, but the ISIS threat remains urgent and widely distributed across the Middle East and beyond. Al-Qaeda meanwhile, has faced a series of challenges in the years since the Arab uprisings of 2010 and 2011, with some of its affiliates appearing to have learned lessons from the past and adapted their strategies towards operating more durably, within existing and likely intractable local conflicts. That pursuit has been a defining feature of Iran’s regional strategy, in which local militant proxies – some designated terrorist organizations – are built and consolidated in order to become permanent fixtures of countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
The international community clearly has a long struggle ahead in terms of combating the threats posed by terrorist organizations. This panel will seek to discuss these challenges and address existing and future policy responses to them.
Panelists:
Ambassador James Jeffrey, Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Special Representative for Syria Engagement, U.S. Department of State
Edmund Fitton-Brown, Coordinator, Analytical Support & Sanctions Monitoring Team, ISIS, Al-Qaeda & Taliban, United Nations
Jessica Jambert-Gray, First Secretary, Counter-Terrorism, British Embassy to the U.S.
Charles Lister, moderator, Senior Fellow and Director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism program, MEI
4. African Women’s Mobilization in Times of Unrest|June 5th, 2019|10:30am-3:00pm|Wilson Center|5thFloor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027|Register Here
Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program and the Women and Peacebuilding in Africa Consortium for a discussion on “African Women’s Mobilization in Times of Unrest” on Wednesday, June 5, from 10:30 am to 3:00 pm in the 5th Floor Conference Room. The symposium will examine the cost of women’s exclusion and the possibilities for their inclusion in peacebuilding in war-affected African countries. Based on research conducted by the Consortium, this event will seek to provide evidence, comparative theoretical insights, and policy implications on women and conflict.
The morning session will focus on Women’s Mobilization in the Current Uprisings in Sudan and Algeriaand the ways in which women’s past mobilization has led to the extraordinary roles they are playing in leading the fight for democracy, inclusion, and transparency in the current Algerian and Sudanese uprisings.
The afternoon session will discuss Women Activists’ Informal Peacebuilding Strategies in conflicts in northern Nigeria and South Sudan. It will look at the costs of exclusion from formal peacebuilding processes, and explore efforts at inclusion in governance in Somalia
Moderators:
Aili Mari Tripp, Fellow, Professor of Political Science and Women’s Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Ayesha Imam, Coordinator, Baobab, A Women’s Human Rights Organization in Nigeria
Speakers:
Samia El Nagar, Independent Researcher, Sudan
Liv Tønnessen, Research Director, Chr Michelsen Institute, Norway
Helen Kezie-Nwoha, Executive Director, Isis-Women’s International Cross Cultural Exchange
Jackline Nasiwa, Founder and National Director, Centre for Inclusive Governance, Peace and Justice, South Sudan
Ladan Affi, Assistant Professor, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi
5. A Changing Ethiopia: Lessons from U.S. Diplomatic Engagement|June 5th, 2019|2:00pm-4:00pm|U.S. Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
With more than 100 million people, Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most important and populous countries. Recent changes in political leadership have heralded widely welcomed political and economic reforms, at home and abroad. Yet amid the positivity, Ethiopia faces notable challenges: many reforms remain transitory, the country’s broader national stability is being tested, and its internal politics disputed. Given the historically strong bilateral relationship with Ethiopia, how the United States responds and supports the transition in Ethiopia will be hugely significant for the country’s future.
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join the U.S. Institute of Peace to hear from a distinguished panel who will reflect on their experiences as serving diplomats in Ethiopia, and identify what lessons are relevant to engagement with Ethiopia today. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #AChangingEthiopia.
Participants:
Ambassador Johnnie Carson, opening remarks, Senior Advisor to the President, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador David Shinn, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 1996-1999; Adjunct Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
Ambassador Aurelia Brazeal, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 2002-2005
Ambassador Donald Boot, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia, 2010-2013
Susan Stigant, Director, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
Aly Verjee, moderator, Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
6. Understanding Extremism in Northern Mozambique|June 6th, 2019|9:00am-12:00pm|Center for Strategic & International Studies|2nd Floor, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Since their first October 2017 attack in Mozambique, Islamist extremists—invariably called al-Shabaab or Ahlu Sunna wa Jama—have conducted over 110 attacks, with more than 295 civilian and military deaths. Despite this escalating violence, there are significant gaps in our understanding of the problem. There is not a consensus about the key drivers of extremism in the region, including the linkages between local, regional, and international extremist networks. Experts have struggled to identify who comprises al-Shabaab (Ahlu Sunna wa Jama), and furnish answers to key questions regarding their objectives, recruitment, or funding sources.
Join the CSIS Africa Program on Thursday, June 6, 2019, from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. for a half-day conference on growing insecurity in Mozambique. This event will feature two expert panels on the drivers of extremism and potential response efforts in Mozambique.
Panel 1: Examining Social, Political, and Religious Drivers
Featuring Dr. Alex Vines (Chatham House), Dr. Yussuf Adam (Universidade Eduardo Mondlane), and Dr. Liazzat Bonate (University of West Indies)
Moderated by Emilia Columbo
Panel 2: Exploring Regional and International Response Efforts
Featuring H. Dean Pittman (former U.S. Ambassador to Mozambique), Zenaida Machado (Human Rights Watch), and Dr. Gregory Pirio (Empowering Communications)
Moderated by Judd Devermont (Director, CSIS Africa Program)
This event is made possible by the general support to CSIS.
FEATURING:
Dr. Alex Vines OBE,Head, Africa Program at Chatham House
Dr. Yussuf Adam, Lecturer, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
Dr. Liazzat Bonate, Lecturer, University of West Indies
Dr. Gregory Pirio, Director, Empowering Communications
Amb. H. Dean Pittman, Former U.S. Ambassador to Mozambique
Zenaida Machado , Researcher, Human Rights Watch Africa Division
Judd Devermont, Director, Africa Program
7. After India’s Vote: Prospects for Improved Ties with Pakistan|June 6th, 2019|10:00am-11:30am|U.S. Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
In March, India and Pakistan moved to the brink of war. In response to a terrorist attack claimed by a Pakistan-based militant group, India conducted an airstrike into Pakistani territory for the first time since 1971. The next day, Pakistan downed an Indian MiG 21 jet and captured its pilot. By returning the pilot two days later, India and Pakistan avoided further immediate escalation. However, tensions remain high.
Now India’s just-completed parliamentary elections pose new questions: How will the next government in New Delhi engage Pakistan, and how might Islamabad respond? To share assessments of the likely trajectory of India-Pakistan relations following India’s election and the necessary steps to improve ties, USIP will host a panel on Thursday, June 6 from 10:00am-11:30am. Panelists will include two USIP senior fellows leading the Institute’s research on the best current options for reducing and resolving the 70-year-old India-Pakistan conflict.
Participants:
Ambassador Jalil Jilani, Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace
Former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States
Tara Kartha, Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace
Former Director of Indian National Security Council Secretariat
Josh White, Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University
Vikram Singh, moderator, Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
8. China’s Changing Role in the Middle East|June 6th, 2019|12:00pm|Atlantic Council|12thFloor, 1030 15thSt NW, Washington, DC|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for a keynote address outlining the Trump Administration’s views on China’s changing role in the Middle East and the implications for US foreign policy by National Security Council Senior Director for the Middle East Dr. Victoria Coates. This will be followed by a panel discussion to mark the release of an Atlantic Council report on this subject by Dr. Jonathan Fulton, assistant professor of Zayed University in Abu Dhabi based on his research across the region. The discussion will also include a perspective from Dr. Degang Sun, a visiting scholar at Harvard University and deputy director of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University in China.
Opening remarks by:
Dr. Victoria Coates, Senior Director for the Middle East, US National Security Council
Panelists:
Dr. Jonathan Fulton, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Zayed University
Dr. Degang Sun, Visiting Scholar, Harvard University
Introduced and Moderated by:
Mr. William F. Wechsler, Director, Middle East Programs, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
9. Brittle Boundaries: Creating Collective Cybersecurity Defense|June 6th2019|3:00pm-5:00pm|Wilson Center|5thFloor, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004-3027|Register Here
Currently, efforts worldwide to defend information systems and respond to cybersecurity incidents are based on a combination of government led actions, isolated regulations, and a limited culture of information sharing between industry, government, and the security research community. The current cybersecurity threat environment can be characterized by independent actions with brittle boundaries. Looking forward, there is a need for government, industry, and the security research community to work collectively together in defending systems and responding to incidents.
Please join the Wilson Center for an event to discuss the state of cyber threats – especially to critical infrastructure – and options for building a global collective defense.
This event is held in co-operation with the Embassy of Switzerland in the United States and the Europa Institut at the University of Zurich.
Speakers:
Introduction
Robert S. Litwak, Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies
Ambassador Martin Dahinden, Ambassador of Switzerland to the United States
Andreas Kellerhals, Global Fellow, Director, Europa Institute, University of Zurich
Keynote
André Kudelski, CEO, The Kudelski Group
Christopher C. Krebs, Director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Department of Homeland Security
Panelists
André Kudelski, CEO, The Kudelski Group
Christopher C. Krebs, Director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Department of Homeland Security
Paige Adams, Group Chief Information Security Officer, Zurich Insurance Group
Meg King, Strategic and National Security Advisor to the Wilson Center’s CEO & President; Coordinator of the Science and Technology Innovation Program
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Peace Picks May 27-June 2
- The Role of Parliament in Today’s Britain|Tuesday, May 28th|9:45am-11:15am|Brookings Institution|Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
On May 28, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow for a discussion of Parliament’s role in politics and policy at a pivotal time for one of the United States’ closest allies. The past year has seen a series of extraordinary developments in British politics, with the House of Commons at the center of it all. Following repeated parliamentary defeats for the government’s Brexit agreement with the European Union, the country’s scheduled departure from the EU has been delayed until October 31 and elections for the European Parliament will be held on May 23.
Brookings President John R. Allen will introduce Speaker Bercow. Following the speaker’s remarks, Thomas Wright, director of Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe, will moderate a conversation with Bercow and Amanda Sloat, Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe. Questions from the audience will follow the discussion.
This event is part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative, which aims to build up and expand resilient networks and trans-Atlantic activities to analyze and work on issues concerning trans-Atlantic relations and social cohesion in Europe and the United States.
2. The Arms Control Landscape|Wednesday, May 29th|8:45am-11:00am|Hudson Institute|1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
Hudson Institute will host the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, Jr., for a discussion on Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons. Lt. Gen. Ashley will provide keynote remarks and engage in a discussion with Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs. This will be followed by a panel of senior government officials who will discuss the global landscape for arms control.
Speakers:
Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley, Jr., Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Dr. James H. Anderson, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities, U.S. Department of Defense
Tim Morrison, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Biodefense, National Security Council (NSC)
Thomas DiNanno, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense Policy, Emerging Threats, And Outreach, Bureau Of Arms Control, Verification And Compliance, U.S. Department of State
3. A Conversation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dunford|Wednesday, May 29th| 10:30am-11:30am |Brookings Institution|Saul/Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC| Register Here
During his distinguished tenure as 19th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—the nation’s highest-ranking military officer—General Joseph Dunford has been a key force at the center of America’s defense policy. He has helped redirect U.S. strategic attention to the challenges posed by great power competition, while also remaining vigilant against threats from the Korean Peninsula to the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East, and addressing rapidly evolving military technologies as well as other challenges.
On May 29, Brookings will host General Dunford for a discussion with on the national security landscape facing America, the state of the nation’s armed forces, and key defense choices for the future, moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon.
Questions from the audience will follow their conversation.
4. EU Elections 2019: The Future of the European Project|Wednesday, May 29th |12:00pm-2:00pm|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council on Wednesday, May 29, 2019, from 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. for a conversation on “EU Elections 2019: The Future of the European Project.”
In the wake of the 2019 EU elections, the Future Europe Initiative will host a number of experts to discuss their insights on the results. They will provide analysis on the election results, the outcome on individual nations and regions within the EU, and the impact on Europe and the European project as a whole.
Mr. Antoine Ripoll, the Representative of the EU Parliament in Washington, DC, will provide opening remarks with Dr. Frances G. Burwell, Distinguished Fellow with the Future Europe Initiative at the Atlantic Council, moderating the conversation.
Additional speakers will include Dr. Emiliano Alessandri of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Dr. Célia Belin of The Brookings Institution, Ms. Katerina Sokou of Kathimerini and SKAI TV, and Mr. Bart Oosterveld of the Atlantic Council.
To share the perspective on the ground, Mr. Jeremy Cliffe of the Economist and Ms. Sophia Besch of the Centre for European Reform will join us via webcast from Brussels and Berlin respectively.
5. A New Opening for Peace in Ukraine?|Wednesday, May 29th|2:00pm-4:00pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036| Register Here
After five years of war, the conflict in Ukraine is effectively stalemated. Join Carnegie for a timely conversation on whether the arrival of a new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, can help break the deadlock. How should the Trump administration and its European allies respond to this new political reality and continued provocative Russian actions in eastern Ukraine?
U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Amb. Kurt Volker will deliver a keynote address, followed by a panel discussion with leading experts and former government officials.
Travel for participants in this event was made possible with the support of the Embassies of Lithuania and Poland.
Panelists:
Charles Kupchan, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and Professor of international affairs at Georgetown University
Marek Menkiszak, Head of the Russia Department at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, Poland.
Oxana Shevel, Associate Professor in Political Science, Tufts University
Amb. Petras Vaitienkūnasis, former Foreign Minister of Lithuania and Ambassador to Ukraine (2010 to 2014), Adviser to the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council
Moderator:
Andrew S. Weiss, James Family chair and Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
6. Russia’s Resurgence in the Middle East: How does US Policy Meet the Challenge?|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm|Atlantic Council||1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Russia is once again a major player in the Middle East. Moscow has notably backed the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while it has a growing footprint in Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf. Russia’s return to the region has posed significant challenges for transatlantic policymaking in this era of renewed great-power competition. The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security will bring together a panel of experts to discuss Russia’s growing role in the region and its economic, political, and security implications. This event is intended to qualify as a widely-attended gathering under the Executive Branch and Congressional gift rules.
Introduced by:
William F. Wechsler, Director, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Keynote address by:
Kathryn Wheelbarger, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, US Department of Defense
Panelists:
Mark N. Katz, Professor, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University
Becca Wasser, Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation
7. How to Advance Inclusive Peace Processes: Mobilizing Men as Partners for Women, Peace and Security|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm-3:30pm|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
Efforts to develop more inclusive peace processes are making progress. Yet, 20 years after the passage of U.N. Security Resolution 1325 on women, peace, and security, very few women are currently part of formal peace processes. This gap is exemplified by the recent struggles of Afghan women to be included in peace talks and U.N. reports that showed between 1990 and 2017, women constituted only 2 percent of mediators, 8 percent of negotiators, and 5 percent of witnesses and signatories in major peace processes. A new initiative from Our Secure Future, “Mobilizing Men as Partners for Women, Peace and Security,” seeks to remedy this by calling on men in gatekeeping positions throughout the defense, diplomacy, development, civil society, faith-based, and business sectors to commit to ensuring women are an equal part of peace processes and decision making.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace for an event exploring how men in leadership positions are organizing as partners to identify, encourage, and mobilize collective voices in the support of women’s engagement in the pursuit of peace. By bringing global citizens more fully into this campaign, these stakeholders can step away from the sidelines of the women, peace, and security movement and more fully stand alongside—and empower—the women leading the effort. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #MobilizingMen4WPS.
Reception to follow.
Speakers
Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini, Founder and Executive Director, ICAN
Honorable Ed Royce, Former U.S. Representative from California
Ambassador Donald Steinberg, Fellow, Our Secure Future
Ambassador Steven McGann, Founder, The Stevenson Group
Ambassador Melanne Verveer, Executive Director, Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security
Ambassador Rick Barton, Co-director, Scholars in the Nation’s Service Initiative, Princeton University
Rosarie Tucci, moderator, Director, Inclusive Peace Processes, U.S. Institute of Peace
Sahana Dharmapuri, Director, Our Secure Future
Dean Peacock, Senior Advisor for Global Policy, Promundo
8. Line on Fire: India-Pakistan Violence and Escalation Dynamics|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm-3:30pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Over the last decade, firing by Indian and Pakistani troops across the Line of Control in Kashmir increased dramatically, but did not escalate to general conflict. Meanwhile, the February 2019 terrorist attack in Pulwama sparked a sharp, albeit short, military confrontation between India and Pakistan that saw the first aerial combat between the two since 1971. What explains the patterns of violence along the Line of Control and what are the chances that conflict could escalate and involve nuclear weapons?
Join Carnegie for a conversation with Happymon Jacob on this question and more. In his new book Line on Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics, Jacob analyzes new empirical data to examine the causes of India-Pakistan violence along the Kashmir border and the relationship with potential crisis escalation.
Panel:
Happymon Jacob, Associate professor of Disarmament Studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Tamanna Salikuddin, Senior Expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace
George Perkovich, Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, overseeing the Technology and International Affairs Program and Nuclear Policy Program.
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