Category: Noah Roos
Peace picks, June 11 – June 17
- Avoiding Nuclear War – A Discussion with the Mayor of Hiroshima | Monday, June 11| 10:00 am – 11:30 am | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Nuclear war remains the top man-made threat to global stability and the dramatic diplomacy around North Korea’s nuclear program highlights the challenge of averting it. Cities are mobilizing to counter this threat, including Hiroshima—a city which has already borne the brunt of nuclear conflict.
Join Carnegie for a discussion with the mayor of Hiroshima, Kazumi Matsui. Mayor Matsui will describe what the people of Hiroshima and other cities are doing to reduce risks of nuclear war. An expert discussion on diplomatic progress with North Korea and broader disarmament issues will follow, with Mayor Matsui commenting from the perspective of a municipal government. Panel also includes Jon Wolfsthal (Director, Nuclear Crisis Group) and James L. Schoff (Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
- Shaping a New Balance of Power in the Middle East: Regional Actors, Global Powers, and Middle East Strategy | Tuesday, June 12 | 9:00 am – 3:00 pm | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The Gulf and the Middle East are suffering a paroxysm of conflict involving virtually all the regional states as well as the US and Russia and many different non-state actors. What dynamics are driving this chaos? What can be done to contain or reverse the damage? How might a new balance of power emerge? Conference schedule and speakers:
9-9:30: Registration
9:30-9:45: Opening Remarks
- Ezzedine Abdelmoula, Manager of Research, Aljazeera Centre for Studies, Aljazeera Media Network
9:30-11:00: Dynamics of Political Geography in the Middle East
- Chair: Daniel Serwer, Director, SAIS Conflict Management Program
- Ross Harrison, Non-resident Senior FellowMiddle East Institute
- Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, SETA Foundation
- Khalid al Jaber, Gulf International Forum
- Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director, Foreign Policy Program and Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy and Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution
11:00-11:15: Coffee Break
11:15-12:45: Non-State Actors and Shadow Politics
- Chair: Paul Salem, Senior Vice President for Policy Research & Programs, Middle East Institute
- Randa Slim, Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute; Fellow, SAIS Foreign Policy Institute
- Fatima Abo Alasrar, Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation
- Crispin Smith, Harvard Law School
- Anouar Boukhars, Non-Resident Scholar, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Associate Professor of International Relations, McDaniel College
12:45-1:30: Lunch
1:30-3:00: New Balance of Power
- Chair: Mohammed Cherkaoui, Aljazeera Centre for Studies, and George Mason University
- Jamal Khashoggi, independent writer
- Terrence Hopmann, Professor of International Relations, SAIS, Conflict Management Program
- Camille Pecastaing, SAIS, Middle East Studies
- Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
- Denuclearization or Deterrence? Evaluating Next Steps on North Korea | Tuesday, June 11 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Negotiations to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear program remain highly uncertain. While diplomacy plays out, the United States and its allies in Asia will continue strengthening their deterrence capabilities to hedge against future threatening North Korean behavior. Yet, these actions could further exacerbate tensions in East Asia.
Please join the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for an expert panel discussion on denuclearization diplomacy, the potential Trump-Kim summit, and Plan B options to deter North Korean coercive behavior. At the event, Carnegie will release a new report, “Security Spillover: Regional Implications of Evolving Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.” Panel includes Chung Min Lee (Nonresident Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Narushige Michisita (executive advisor to the president and director of the Security and International Studies Program, Strategic Studies Program, and Maritime Safety and Security Policy Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo), Tony Zhao (Fellow, Nuclear Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), and Toby Dalton (Co-director, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
- The Trump Administration’s Post-JCPOA Iran Policy | Wednesday, June 12 | 10:30 am – 12:00 pm | The SETA Foundation at Washington DC | Register Here
On May 8, President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iranian nuclear accord crafted by his predecessor. The withdrawal came after efforts by US allies in Europe to keep the US in the deal, and suggests division between the US and some of its closest partners in the years to come.
In a recent speech at the Heritage Foundation in Washington DC, Mike Pompeo, Trump’s newly appointed Secretary of State and a well-known critic of the Iran deal, declared that the Trump administration will take steps to punish the Iranian regime for regional aggression and impose stiff financial penalties. However, Pompeo also suggested that the administration is open to a new deal that addresses what it sees as the JCPOA’s failings. Under the guidance of Secretary of State Pompeo and Trump’s new national security advisor John Bolton, the Trump administration seems to be charting a much more confrontational policy towards Iran.
Please join the SETA Foundation at Washington DC for an insightful discussion with our panel of experts on this major turning point in US foreign policy as we discuss what it means for US relations with its allies in Europe and the Middle East and what US-Iranian interactions may look like moving forward. Panel includes Hussein Ibish (Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington), Reza Marashi (Research Director, National Iranian American Council), Sigurd Neubauer (Middle East Analyst and Columnist), Barbara Slavin (Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council), and Randa Slim (Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute). Moderated by Kilic B. Kanat (Research Director, SETA Foundation at Washington DC).
- Raising the Curtain on the 2018 NATO Brussels Summit | Wednesday, June 13 | 2:00 pm – 5:30 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here
One month ahead of the July meeting, this event will serve as a primer for the Summit, highlighting many of the top issues on the Alliance’s agenda. The discussions will focus on priorities for strengthening collective defense and deterrence in Northern Europe and beyond, including US proposals to improve capabilities, readiness, and decision-making. The conference will also explore the Alliance’s broader agenda on the road to Brussels, including the way forward for NATO’s southern flank and what the Alliance must do to address terrorism, hybrid threats, and capacity-building in the region.
Convening senior officials, military leaders, top experts, business executives, and media from across the Euro-Atlantic policy community, the conference will provide a unique platform to discuss critical issues for the NATO alliance at a time when the threats have never been more pressing. Speakers include H.E. Raimundas Karoblis (Minister of National Defense, Republic of Lithuania), Dr. Richard Hooker (Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Europe and Russia, US National Security Council), Hon. Michael Turner (OH-10), (Head of the US Delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and Member, US House of Representatives), Gen. Frank Gorenc, USAF (Ret.), (Fmr. Commander, US Air Forces in Europe and Africa and NATO Allied Air Command), Amb. Alexander Vershbow (Fmr. Deputy Secretary-General, NATO and Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council), Laura Rosenberger (Director and Senior Fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund), and Dr. Fabrizio Luciolli (President, Atlantic Treaty Association and President, Italian Atlantic Committee).
- America, Russia, and Vladimir Putin: Russian Opposition Perspectives | Thursday, June 14 | 2:30 pm – 4:00 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
As of May 7, Vladimir Putin has begun his fourth term as the President of the Russian Federation. The next six years seem poised to be pivotal, with U.S. foreign policy in flux, the world responding, and Russia redefining its roles and responsibilities. Yet, one trend that continues unabated is a downward spiral in tensions between Moscow and Washington. Many western experts see Putin himself as the reason for problems past and present. What, then, does his continued rule mean for U.S. Russian relations, and how might each country adjust its policies to better further domestic, foreign policy, and security goals? Join us in this conversation with past Russian government and opposition leaders regarding what Moscow and Washington can do, and what they are likely to. This event is organized in cooperation with the Institute of Modern Russia (IMR). Panel includes Andrei Kozyrev (Fmr. Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation from 1991-1996), Vitali Shkliarov (Russian Political Strategist, Fmr. Senior Campaign Advisor to Ksenia Sobchak), Vladimir Kara-Murza (Vice Chairman, Open Russia and Fmr. Deputy Leader of the People’s Freedom Party), and Olga Oliker (Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program).
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Peace picks, June 4 – 10
- U.S. – North Korean Summit: Cancelled or Postponed? Tuesday, June 5 | 1:30 pm – 4:30 pm | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
What are the ramifications of the sudden termination of the planned meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un? What factors led to the cancellation and has the door been permanently closed on a diplomatic solution to the North Korean nuclear problem? Will North Korea abandon its moratorium and resume nuclear and missile tests and escalate tension on the Korean Peninsula. Will there be a resumption of advocacy for a U.S. preventive military attack on North Korea? As Pyongyang, Seoul, Beijing, and Washington engaged in summit diplomacy, Japan had been the neglected partner. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had established the closest relationship with President Trump of any world leader but then seemed ignored during the summit mania. Does the U.S.-North Korea summit cancellation vindicate Abe’s firm approach to Pyongyang or has there been lasting impact on his political strength as well as Japan’s relationship with the United States?
Join us as two panels of distinguished experts discuss these and other topics as well as make recommendations for U.S. policy in the uncertain time ahead. Speakers include Duyeon Kim (Visiting Senior Research Fellow, Korean Peninsula Future Forum), Dr. Lee Sung-Yoon (Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies and Assistant Professor, The Fletcher School, Tufts University), Dr. Sue Mi Terry (Senior Fellow, Korea Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies), Dr. Jeffrey W. Hornung (Political Scientist, The RAND Corporation), James Schoff (Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and Yuki Tatsumi (Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program, The Stimson Center).
- The Long Search for Peace in Afghanistan | Thursday, June 7 | 1:30 pm – 4:30 pm | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace on Thursday, June 7 for a multi-panel discussion on practical steps for the search for peace in Afghanistan. This effort has moved to center stage in recent months following President Ashraf Ghani’s late February peace offer to the Taliban, a series of major international conferences that consolidated support for a peace deal, and a wave of pro-peace demonstrations across Afghanistan. Crucial questions nonetheless remain: What it will take to get the Taliban to join peace talks in earnest? What will a prospective peace agreement look like? How does the peace process affect the Afghan and international military campaign?
The event will examine the issue from two crucial perspectives: the top-down effort to reach a political settlement involving the Taliban, and the bottom-up effort to forge peace in local communities. We will feature a distinguished and diverse range of American, Afghan, and other experts who have directly worked on this issue in government, the United Nations, academia, and civil society. They will provide a comprehensive look at an effort that is vital to Afghanistan’s future, but often poorly understood outside a small community of experts. Speakers include Steve Brooking (Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Afghanistan), Laurel Miller (Former State Department Acting Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan), Barnett Rubin (Senior Fellow and Associate Director of the Center for International Cooperation, New York University), Michael Semple (Visiting Professor, Institute for the Study of Conflict Transformation and Social Justice, Queen’s University, Belfast), Kate Clark (Director, Afghan Analysts Network) and Erica Gaston (Non-Resident Fellow, Global Public Policy Institute). Moderated by Johnny Walsh (Senior Expert on Afghanistan, US Institute of Peace).
- Colombia’s Choice: Analyzing the First Round of the Presidential Election | Thursday, June 7 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Inter-American Dialogue | Register Here
On Sunday, May 27, Colombians head to the polls for the first round of a critically important presidential election, the first since a peace accord was signed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in late 2016. Polls show Iván Duque of the Democratic Center Party with the lead, followed by Gustavo Petro, who heads a leftist coalition. The country remains highly polarized around the terms and implementation of the peace agreement. Combating corruption and curbing drug cultivation and trafficking are key challenges, as responding to the exploding migration crisis in Venezuela. The next government will also have to deal with a tough fiscal situation as it seeks to improve education, health and infrastructure.
The Dialogue is pleased to host a discussion after the first round of the presidential race, to interpret the results and explore what we can expect, should there be a second round on June 17. What is the outlook moving forward? What are the implications of the vote for addressing the country’s wide-ranging and complex peace/security, political, economic and social agendas? Speakers include Catalina Botero (Dean of the Law School at Universidad de los Andes), Juan Carlos Iragorri (Director, Club de Prensa, NTN24) and Peter Schechter (Political commentator and co-host of the Altamar Podcast). Moderated by Michael Shifter (President, Inter-American Dialogue).
- U. S. – Indonesia Relations and the Rise of China | Friday, June 8 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The Rise of China is a reality. Its influence – and the opportunity it represents – is being felt from the Pacific to the Atlantic. Southeast Asia, however, is a neighbor. Indonesia, in fact, given Indonesian maritime claims, is right next door. Indonesia has a centuries-long history of dealing with China’s power. How should its government today see the balance between threat and opportunity represented in its rise? How should it make the most of China’s economic contributions to the region’s development? How should it push back on unwelcome initiatives, particularly around issues of maritime security? Where are the intersecting areas of interest with the United States and how should it view a U.S.-China rivalry? What is ASEAN’s role? These are just a few of the questions on the table for this event. Please join us we explore them and many more with our distinguished guests. Speakers include Hon. Rizal Ramli (Former Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and former Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Republic of Indonesia), Cameron Hume (Chairman, American Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, and former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia) and Brian Harding (Deputy Director and Fellow, Southeast Asia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies). Hosted by Walter Lohman (Director, Asian Studies Center).
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Peace picks, May 28 – June 3
- The Malaysian Election Tsunami: What Happens Next? | Wednesday, May 30 | 10:00 am – 11:00 am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program is pleased to present ‘The Malaysian Election Tsunami: What Happens Next?’ a panel discussion featuring Dr. Meredith Weiss (Professor and Director of International Programs, University of Albany’s Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy) and Ambassador Joseph Y. Yun (US ambassador to Malaysia, 2013-2016). They will discuss the outcomes of 14th Malaysian general election, and what the election means for the state of democracy in Malaysia and the region.
- Asserting Taiwan’s International Space: The Challenges Ahead for Taipei’s Leadership | Wednesday, May 30 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Wilson Center | Register Here
Taiwan’s unique status in the world has come under greater pressure in recent months as China steps up efforts to challenge Taipei’s global standing. Taiwan remains a leading Asian economy and a vibrant democracy. Yet strained cross-Strait relations have made it increasingly difficult for Taipei to ensure its standing in the international arena. Join us for a discussion on the political, security, and social challenges ahead for Taiwan, and how Taiwan may be able to overcome some of its vulnerabilities to ensure a stable and prosperous future. Panel includes Irene Wu (Fellow, Wilson Center), Ian Reston (Research Fellow, Project 2049 Institute) and Gerrit van der Wees (Editor, Taiwan Communique and Lecturer, George Mason University).
- Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments | Wednesday, May 30 | 2:30 pm – 4:00 pm | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
In the past two years, the world has witnessed multiple crises in regions where nuclear weapons are present: the Korean peninsula saw heightened tensions throughout 2017; China and India were involved in a major border crisis; violence between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control in Kashmir has been the highest in 15 years and the U.S. and its partners in the Middle East now face a highly uncertain future vis-à-vis Iran.
The U.S. has an innate interest in preventing nuclear war around the world. Along with other strong powers, the United States has been proactive in managing crises in nuclearized regions, most notably in South Asia, which has seen repeated bouts of escalated tensions since the end of the Cold War. Yet, as great power competition resurges and U.S. interests in Asia pit it against actors like Iran, Pakistan, and increasingly China, the U.S. role in crises in nuclearized regions may become more complicated. What implications could this have for the probability of conflict and for U.S. influence as other strong powers compete more aggressively with Washington in these theaters, including possibly using crises as opportunities to overshadow the traditional U.S. role as crisis manager?
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace on May 30 for a discussion on the opportunities, challenges, and risks of crises in regional nuclear contexts and policy options for U.S. diplomacy. Panel includes Amb. Joseph Yun (Senior Advisor to the Asia Center, US Institute of Peace), Lora Saalman (Vice President, East-West Institute), Feroz Khan (Research Professor, Naval Postgraduate School), Moeed Yusuf (Associate Vice President, Asia Center at US Institute of Peace), and Gregg Zoroya (USA Today Editorial Board).
- Turkey’s Snap Elections and the Impact on U.S. – Turkey Relations | Thursday, May 31 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
On June 24, Turkey will go to the polls for snap presidential and parliamentary elections that will mark the country’s transition to the new presidential system that was approved in an April 2017 referendum.
These elections come at a time when Turkey’s relationship with the U.S. – its NATO ally and foremost security partner – is facing numerous challenges. Turkey and the U.S. remain at odds over the latter’s support of the YPG in Syria, which Ankara considers to be a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, various pieces of recent Congressional legislation have proposed bans on weapons sales to Turkey in response to Ankara’s purchase of Russian military equipment and the continued imprisonment of American citizens in Turkey.
How will this critical turning point in Turkey’s domestic governance affect its vital relationship with the U.S.?
Join THO on May 31 for a discussion with Turkish and American experts on how developments surrounding these snap elections and Turkey’s transition to a presidential system could impact the U.S.-Turkey bilateral relationship. Panel includes Richard Leiby (Editor and Writer, The Washington Post), Ragip Soylu (Washington Correspondent, Daily Sabah), Shawn Turner (CNN National Security Analyst and Director of Communication, Center for a New American Security), Yusuf Erim (Turkey Analyst, TRT World) and Guy Taylor (National Security Team Leader, The Washington Times). Moderated by Prof. Herbert Reginbogin (Advisory Board Member, Turkish Heritage Organization).
- Military Challenges in the Asia Pacific: US Responses to Regional Competition | Friday, June 1 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The Asia Pacific security environment is more contested today than at any time since World War II. China’s increased assertiveness and North Korea’s unpredictability are not symptomatic of America’s decline, nor do they necessarily signal great power conflict. Rather, recent developments demand a close look at the changing terms of regional competition and America’s responses to it. In this hypercompetitive environment, how will the US and its allies and partners ensure regional stability?
Join AEI as a panel of security experts discuss how the US can keep its competitive edge in the Asia Pacific. Panel includes Roger Cliff (Center for Naval Analyses), Thomas Donnelly (American Enterprise Institute), Nathan Freier (United States Army War College) and Lt. Gen. Wallace (Fmr. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Asian and Pacific Security Affairs). Moderated by Philip Lohaus (American Enterprise Institute).
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Next year in Jerusalem?
A SETA Foundation panel on Tuesday discussed the impact of the US decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem. The SETA Foundation’s Kilic B. Kanat moderated a panel comprised of Geoffrey Aronson (The Mortons Group), Lara Friedman (Foundation for Middle East Peace), Ghaith al-Omari (Washington Institute), and Kadir Ustun (SETA Foundation) to analyze this historic development and its impact on the Middle East.
Aronson connected the embassy move to the Balfour Declaration. In both cases, the world’s pre-eminent power of the time lined up behind the Jews. It also acknowledges reality: in the case of the Balfour Declaration, it was the staying power of the Zionist movement and in the case of the embassy move, the staying power of the settlements. Both the declaration and the embassy move claimed it would not offend other parties, yet this has been shown to be untrue. Aronson believes that, at least in theory, Israel could pay a price later for the embassy move. However, at the moment, Arab leaders see the costs and benefits of not obstructing the embassy move as acceptable for the sake of focusing on Iran. The reality is Arab states are at one of their weakest points in history with few assets to bring to the diplomatic table. Arab states are forced to accept these shifts.
Friedman believes the embassy move confirms the end of the Oslo Era and that we must take Trump at his word. His policies may be reckless, but they are in fact coherent. Trump’s advisors see US and Israeli interests as identical. With Jerusalem off the table, chaos has been injected to reframe the concept of Middle East peace and stability based on a US-Israeli version. Expect Kushner’s plan to be utterly unacceptable to Palestinians and to lay out new US positions on permanent status issues. With Israel’s religious right emboldened, there will be real or perceived threat to sacred space in Jerusalem. This will lead to instability and force Arab leaders and people to take action.
Al-Omari focused on how, at an official level, the embassy move has forced Arab leaders to take hardline stances and limit their diplomatic maneuvering. Although the Palestine issue has become dormant among many Arab publics, no Arab leader wants to cast aside the issue for fear it could re-emerge. The move also shows limits to the anti-Iran coalition, the unspoken alliance between the US, Israel, and several Arab states about confronting Iran. Some lines, like the Jerusalem issue, cannot be crossed. If the Arab states try and cross that line, the Palestinians, with a strong sense of nationhood, will call them out and force them to focus on the issue.
Ustun took a different approach from Al-Omari. He argues that the unspoken anti-Iran alliance is a strong regional dynamic and Arab states are in practice more focused on confronting Iran as opposed to Israel-Palestine issues. Any statements or public lines they take on recent Palestine developments are therefore hollow and meaningless. Countries outside this anti-Iran grouping are putting more serious effort into the Israel-Palestine issue and the issue matters more in countries with some type of electoral process (like Turkey) than countries without one (like Saudi Arabia). In the long-term, Ustun believes lack of attention on this issue could undermine the legitimacy of the states that do not focus on it.
The US decision to move the embassy to Jerusalem has negated its ability to act as an honest, objective peace-broker. It is up to other countries such as European ones to continue the push for a negotiated, acceptable two-state solution and to continue to uphold international law, organizations, and norms. American Jews, led by increasingly vocal and progressive youth, are troubled by Trump’s stances and actions on the Israel-Palestine issue, especially in context of his other reckless decisions. It remains to be seen how the increasing anger of the American Jewish community can be used to promote positive change.
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Peace picks, May 21 – 27
- After ISIS, Will Iraq’s Elections be the Next Step to Stability? | Monday, May 21| 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
On May 12, Iraqis go to the polls to elect members of a new national parliament. This is the fourth election since the fall of Saddam Hussein, but the first since the military rollback of the Islamic State-declared caliphate. The country’s new leaders will be faced with the challenge of rebuilding, stabilizing, and healing their country as the United States and the West continue to decrease their military presence.
Join us on May 21 for a provocative town hall debate with foreign policy experts Kenneth Pollack, from the American Enterprise Institute, the National Defense University’s Denise Natali, and USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed, moderated by Joshua Johnson of the public radio program 1A. The discussion will focus on how Iraq’s leaders can overcome years of sectarian violence and find unity, as well as what a future alliance with the West may look like.
- North Korea and the Fine Print of a Deal: A View from Congress | Tuesday, May 22 | 9:00 am – 10:00 am | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
The United States is engaged in high-stakes negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear program as the White House prepares for the summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. But nuclear capabilities and missiles are not the only items on the negotiating table. An eventual settlement could include some difficult concessions and require significant oversight and legislative action on the part of Congress. In addition to a potential restructuring of U.S. forces in South Korea, a grand bargain could result in a range of due-outs for Congress, from sanctions relief and economic incentives to multilateral political arrangements.
Two Members of Congress and military veterans, Representative Ted Lieu (D-CA) and Representative Steve Russell (R-OK), will examine the importance of this ongoing diplomatic effort, possible outcomes of negotiations, and the role they hope Congress plays in the coming months at USIP’s third Bipartisan Congressional Dialogue on May 22.
- What Lies Ahead for Afghanistan: The Various Scenarios | Tuesday, May 22 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The way forward in Afghanistan seems as unclear as it has ever been. An outright military victory against the Taliban and other insurgent groups appears to be unachievable. The prospect of insurgents overrunning the country soon appears similarly unlikely. At the same time, a negotiated peace seems presently improbable. At least on terms outlined by the Kabul government and international community, the Taliban shows little interest in reconciliation. The long-term commitment of the United States and its coalition partners to an indefinite military presence and financial support cannot be taken for granted.
After nearly 17 years of fighting and state building in Afghanistan, we are still asking how conflict ends and what the endgame for Afghanistan looks like.
To discuss possible scenarios, the Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host an expert panel. MEI’s Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Marvin G. Weinbaum, will moderate the discussion with Javid Ahmad, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center; Courtney Cooper, an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Seth Jones, director of the Transnational Threats Project and a senior adviser for the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic International Studies.
- The Implications of the US Embassy Move to Jerusalem | Tuesday, May 22 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | The SETA Foundation at Washington DC | Register Here
On Monday, May 14, 2018, the US officially opened its embassy to Israel in Jerusalem. The move, which had been delayed by Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama, was announced by President Donald J. Trump on February 23. While Trump’s announcement was welcomed by Israel, it was condemned by Palestinian leaders and other US allies in the Middle East.
Please join the SETA Foundation at Washington DC on May 22 for a timely discussion on what the move of the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem means for future US policy in the region, how US allies and adversaries will react to the move, and what it means for the Israel-Palestine peace process. Panel includes Geoffrey Aronson (President, The Mortons Group), Lara Friedman (President, Foundation for Middle East Peace), Ghaith al-Omari (Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute), Kadir Ustun (Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC). Moderated by Kilic B. Kanat (Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC).
- Can Power-sharing Arrangements Deliver Peace? | Thursday, May 24 | 10:00 am – 12:00 pm | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
Power-sharing arrangements are often touted as a means to address conflict between two parties. But practitioners and policymakers alike agree that the foundation for such arrangements requires considerable strategy and planning, including articulating clear objectives and expectations. Under what conditions do power-sharing arrangements work? What are the key ingredients to help unity governments succeed? Do power-sharing arrangements build political trust by delivering to citizens?
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace for a discussion exploring these critical questions. By exploring recent research in the Philippines, the panel will consider the effects a power-sharing peace agreement has on citizens’ trust in the national government, helping policymakers better understand how to build political trust in the aftermath of intrastate conflict. Panel includes Rosarie Tucci (Director, Inclusive Societies, US Institute of Peace), Susan Stigant (Director, Africa Programs, US Institute of Peace), Caroline Hartzell (Professor, Political Science Department, Gettysburg College), Matthew Hoddie (Associate Professor, Towson University), and Joseph Eyerman (Director, Center for Security, Defense and Safety, Research Triangle Institute International).
- America First, Europe alone? | Thursday, May 24 | 2:00 – 3:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here
For the first 16 months of the Trump administration, European governments have sought to work closely with the United States, rather than opposing it publicly. However, differences over the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris Climate Accord, trade, and the nature of sovereignty have led some observers to predict the end of the Atlantic alliance. On May 24, the Brookings Institution will convene an expert panel to discuss the trajectory of trans-Atlantic relations; whether the allies can bridge the gaps that divide them; how important Europe, and particularly the European Union, is to the Trump administration; and whether European states can and will fend for themselves.
The discussion will feature Brookings’s Robert Bosch Senior Fellows Amanda Sloat and Constanze Stelzenmüller, and Kenneth R. Weinstein, president and CEO of Hudson Institute. Edward Luce, Washington columnist and commentator for the Financial Times, will moderate the discussion.
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Up a creek without a paddle
A Wilson Center panel yesterday considered recent developments with Iran, particularly Trump’s groundbreaking decision to exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, aka Iran nuclear deal). With the Wilson Center’s Aaron David Miller as moderator, panel members Michael Singh of the Washington Institute, Tamara Coffman Wittes of the Brookings Institution, Robert Litwak of the Wilson Center, and Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations discussed the JCPOA, the American departure from it, and future prospects.
Singh argued that Trump’s decision had both political and substantive roots. The President decided to use a problematic model of “maximum pressure” to create a new Iran deal. Where there was once convergence with foreign allies and partners on the way forward with Iran, with diplomatic efforts creating a multilateral sanctions campaign, there is now divergence, which makes Trump’s strategy of “maximum pressure” harder to implement.
Next steps, Singh believes, should include:
1. Heal the rift with European allies and reach a US-E3 agreement, at least an agreed roadmap on the way forward.
2. Nest the withdrawal from the JCPOA in a more comprehensive Iran strategy, as sanctions alone are not enough.
There is no real Administration strategy on Iran, Singh suggested. It talks tough but is reluctant to get dragged into the Middle East. Iran is a revisionist state and the only way to confront it is with commitment to the Middle East and the use of every policy tool.
Wittes understands Trump’s JCPOA decision as based on a desire to fulfill campaign promises and cater to domestic policy and interests. But it was reckless. Iranian influence, opportunities, and gains since 2011 have expanded as they compete with Sunni states and Israel for power. This unfortunately comes at a time of US pullback from the Middle East, which troubles US allies concerned more about Iran’s regional behavior than nuclear weapons, and a turn of foreign policy focus towards Asia. Wittes does not see how a new US-Iran agreement can happen. She does believe, however, that in the current Israel-Iran standoff, both sides are sending careful and calibrated messages as neither side seeks escalation, although it could still happen.
Litwak thinks the exit from the JCPOA is a departure from the US grand strategy of exerting power via international institutions. The US, not Iran, is being seen as the foreign policy issue and outlier state. America First is turning into America Alone. The JCPOA had a transactional, not transformational, basis as it sought to constrain Iran’s nuclear program, which has existed for over 40 years. Without the JCPOA, it is harder to address other Iran issues. The re-imposition of US sanctions could lead to a trade war with Europe should it take a defiant stance. It also strengthens Iranian hardliners and opens the door for Iran to leave the deal and restart its nuclear program. The exit from JCPOA could make it more difficult to negotiate a nuclear deal with North Korea. Trump’s transformational goal for a new Iran deal is over-reach. Litwak believes the US should be more pragmatic.
Takeyh anticipates that the US and Iran will eventually return to negotiations, considering the dearth of unofficial dialogues with Iran. The JCPOA was seriously flawed, especially the sunset clauses. A new deal with Iran must be permanent, a treaty approved in the Senate with minority party support. Ultimately, arms control will need to be an aspect of Iran policy, not the totality of it.
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