Category: Rory Coleman
- Defending Sovereignty and Information Space | Tuesday, November 13 | 11:30 am – 1 pm | Atlantic Council |
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
How should one respond to the many interlocking elements that make up this tool of statecraft in order to reinforce the resiliency of our societies and technology and how to use all levers of national power to contain the negative effects of Russian activities?
Russia has been exploiting agents of influence and information space to sway public opinion and mislead government actors. In the wake of the 2016 US Presidential election, the United States was forced to come to terms with Russian interference in American democratic institutions and the sudden throwback to many Russian Cold War-era hybrid tactics. Nevertheless, the Republic of Estonia, along with other European allies, have been well aware of these tactics and have been working to counter the resurgence of Russian activities.
As hybrid warfare has benefited immensely from the digital age, the United States and its European allies and partners urgently need to comprehend the tasks, purposes, and organization of these tactics in order to reinforce societal and technological resilience to face unprecedented levels of state-sponsored influence and interference campaigns.
A conversation with:
Ambassador Victoria Nuland
Former Assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs,
US Department of State;
Chief Executive Officer
Center for a New American Security
Dr. Thomas Rid
Professor of Strategic Studies,
School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University
General Riho Terras
Commander
Estonian Defense Forces
Moderated by:
H.E. Jonatan Vseviov
Ambassador
Embassy of Estonia to the United States
2. Promoting American Leadership in 5G Technology | Tuesday, November 13 | 12 pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host an event to discuss how the U.S. can maintain a competitive edge in the development of 5G technology and the future of global telecommunications. Panelists include former Federal Communications Commissioner and Hudson Senior Fellow Harold Furchtgott-Roth; CEO of global telecommunications company Rivada Networks Declan Ganley; and former Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush Karl Rove.
Chinese technology has played a growing role in the global 5G network, with over 58 countries agreeing to use Chinese hardware in their future networks. As it emerges over the next decade, 5G promises to vastly increase the speed and responsiveness of wireless networks. While the rollout of 5G will demand billions of dollars, the companies and countries investing now will have a strong say in not only how 5G transmits information, but how others are able to access the system. The discussion will be moderated by Hudson Senior Fellow Arthur Herman.
Speakers
Harold Furchtgott-Roth Speaker
Former Federal Communications Commissioner and Senior Fellow and Director, Center for the Economics of the Internet, Hudson Institute
Declan Ganley Speaker
CEO, Rivada Networks
Karl Rove Speaker
Former Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush.
Arthur Herman (Moderator) Speaker
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
3. The Midterm Elections’ Implications for the Transatlantic Agenda | Wednesday, November 14 | 12:15 pm – 1:30 pm | CSIS | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The CSIS Europe Program is delighted to host a conversation with U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation. With the conclusion of the U.S. midterm elections, we will discuss what the future holds for U.S. policy toward NATO and European security, Russia, the Western Balkans, as well as the U.S.-EU trade relationship from a Congressional perspective. Following Senator Murphy’s remarks, CSIS experts will assess the impact that the new Congress will have on foreign and national security policy, and discuss the issues they will be keeping their eyes on in the 116th Congress.
Featuring:
U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D – CT),
Ranking Member, Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation
CSIS Experts
Heather A. Conley,
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program
William Alan Reinsch,
Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business
Louis Lauter,
Vice President for Congressional and Government Affairs
4. Indo-Pacific Currents: Emerging Partnerships, Rivalries, and Strategic Realities across Asia | Thursday, November 15 | 10 am – 11:30 am | The Stimson Center | 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The Indo-Pacific region, a key focus of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda, is undergoing significant political and strategic realignments with the return to great power competition. India’s role in the region is central to these developments, both in its emerging partnerships with nations like Japan and the United States and in its deepening rivalry with neighboring China. How are these dynamics likely to play out, and what are their broader strategic implications? Please join the Stimson Center for a panel discussion addressing views from across Asia on the political and security impacts of intra-regional cooperation and competition. Our panelists, Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, Brett Lambert, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy, U.S. Department of Defense, Yun Sun, Co-Director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program, and Yuki Tatsumi, Co-Director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program, will offer comments. Sameer Lalwani, Director of the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program, will convene our meeting, and Elizabeth Threlkeld, South Asia Program Deputy Director, will moderate the discussion.
The Asia Strategy Initiative (ASI) is a joint effort by Stimson’s East, Southeast, and South Asia Program to feature regional perspectives on the shifting strategic dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. By introducing expert analysis, ASI seeks to facilitate dialogues and develop pragmatic solutions for strategic, political, and economic challenges that the region faces.
5. Decentralization and Centralization: The Future of Governance in Syria | Thursday, November 15 | 12:30 pm – 2 pm | New America | 740 15th St NW #900 Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
What is the state of governance in the various zones in Syria? Is a pre-2011 hyper centralized governance structure conducive to the peace process? How can a Syria-tailored decentralization model help the peace process? In its latest book publication, Centralization and Decentralization in Syria: The Concept and Practice, Omran Center for Strategic Studies examines Syria’s current forms of governance and how experiences on the ground, in the various zones of influence, converge or diverge from the concepts of centralization and decentralization.
To discuss the book and its findings, New America and Omran present Dr. Ammar Kahf, Executive Director and co-founder of the Omran Center who earned his Ph.D. in Political Science and Islamic Studies at the University of California Los Angeles and previously served as the Chief of Staff to the Secretary General of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces from 2012 to 2013, and Mr. Yaser Tabbara, Esq., co-founder and board member of the Omran Center, and a former Senior Advisor to the Syrian Interim Government Prime Minister in 2013. Further remarks will be provided by Mona Yacoubian, Senior Adviser for Syria, Middle East, and North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace and former Deputy Assistant Administrator in the Middle East Bureau at USAID from 2014-2017 where she had responsibility for Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon.
Participants:
Ammar Kahf, @ammarkahf
Executive Director, Omran Center for Strategic Studies
Yaser Tabbara, @abulyas
Co-Founder and Board Member, Omran Center for Strategic Studies
Mona Yacoubian, @myacoubian
Senior Adviser, United States Institute of Peace
Moderator:
Peter Bergen, @peterbergencnn
Vice President, New America
6. Russian Nuclear Strategy After the Cold War | Friday, November 16 | 10 am – 11:30 am | CSIS | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join us for a discussion of the external and internal drivers of change in post-Cold War Russian nuclear strategy. Dr. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard will argue that current Russian strategy is reducing the emphasis on nuclear weapons and oriented primarily toward deterring rather than fighting nuclear war. Improved conventional military capabilities are reducing Russia’s need to use nuclear weapons to compensate for conventional inferiority, and the most influential actors formulating nuclear strategy in Russia now argue for enhancing conventional and non-conventional tools to influence the course of conflict.
This event is made possible through generous support from Carnegie Corporation of New York.
FEATURING:
Kristen Ven Bruusgaard,
MacArthur Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford
Olga Olika (discussant),
Senior Advisor and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Michael Kofman (moderator),
Senior Research Scientist, Russia Studies Program, CNA
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The scale of Islamophobia in America is startling. On Thursday New America and the American Muslim Institution (AMI) unveiled their study on perceptions of Muslim Americans among non-Muslims. The survey conducted roughly 1,000 interviews nation-wide and zoomed in on Washington DC and 3 other cities for additional insight. Only 56% of respondents saw Islam as compatible with American values, and one in three respondents would feel uncomfortable with seeing a Muslim woman wearing a veil, or with a mosque or Islamic center being opened in their neighborhood.
Panelists Robert McKenzie, Director and Senior Fellow at New America, and Shafiq Khan, a Board Member at AMI, were also surprised by the results from DC. It was their expectation based on their own experiences and conversations with many local Imams and community leaders that DC was a significantly more open and worldlier city than the United States as a whole. Instead, the results showed that on some questions DC exhibited more bigotry than the national average.
Partisan affiliation was the best predictor of anti-Muslim attitudes, with Republicans 30% more likely than the overall group to see Islam as incompatible with American values. This result dovetails with recent work
showing that American’s racial attitudes are increasingly organized along with the partisan divide.
The average respondent put Muslims at 17% of the America population, while the real makeup is somewhere closer to 1 percent. Disproportionate media coverage may be to blame, especially in the larger context of conspiracy theories, “culture wars,” and majority fears about marginalization. If so it would raise the question of how best to fight the caustic narrative around American Muslims without continuing to blow the issue out of proportion.
Unpleasant surprise was the major takeaway from the discussion. Islamophobia, despite expectations, is not relegated to some extremist fringe, but is now widespread among the American populace.
Still, further investigation is in order. The interviews were intentionally conducted in October of this year, when Islamophobia would be heightened due to the midterm elections. But as of yet there is no second round of surveys to confirm or rebut that assumption. The survey made no distinction between American views of Muslim and other immigrants, or between recent immigrants and the long established African-American Muslim community.
After delivering evidence of the scale of the problem Khan and McKenzie seemed unsure of what is needed as a remedy. McKenzie wanted to hand the report over to local journalists and politicians, hoping they would leap into action to address their communities and set the record straight. The report and its presentation raised more questions than it answered.
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- What Really Works to Prevent Election Violence? | Monday, October 29 | 9:30 am – 11:30 am | United States Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
One in five elections worldwide is marred by violence—from burned ballot boxes to violent suppression of peaceful rallies, to assassinations of candidates. A USIP study of programs to prevent violence suggests focusing on improving the administration and policing of elections. The study, of elections in Kenya and Liberia, found no evidence that programs of voter consultation or peace messaging were effective there. Join USIP to discuss this important new report.
Governments and international organizations invest in many programs—youth engagement, election observation, police training, and civic education—to help poorly governed states or developing democracies hold credible elections. USIP’s new report, “What Works in Preventing Election Violence,” is a piece of the evidence needed to learn which programs work and which do not. Elections experts from Kenya, Liberia and leading U.S. pro-democracy institutions will review the findings of this report against their own experiences. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #ElectingPeace.
Speakers
Pat Merloe
Senior Associate and Director for Election Programs, NDI
John Tomaszewski
Africa Director, IRI
Joshua Changwony
Deputy Executive Secretary, Constitution and Reform Education Consortium (CRECO, Kenya)
Oscar Bloh
Chairman, Elections Coordination Committee (ECC, Liberia)
Inken von Borzyskowski
Assistant Professor, Florida State University
Jonas Claes, facilitator
Senior Program Officer, Center for Applied Conflict Transformation, USIP
Debra Liang-Fenton, facilitator
Senior Program Officer, Center for Applied Conflict Transformation, USIP
2. Thinking Strategically About Human Rights Challenges in Negotiations with North Korea | Monday, October 29 | 10 am – 11 am | Heritage Foundation | 214 Massachusetts Ave NE Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here
Prior to the summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, the international community underscored the need to raise human rights concerns in negotiations with North Korea. Despite President Trump’s focus on North Korea’s human rights challenges at the State of the Union and notable meetings with North Korean refugees, human rights were seemingly left out of the conversation in Singapore. Since that time, the U.S. government has said little on human rights issues and reports from South Korea indicate that human rights are not a priority there either. The prospect of a second summit between Trump and Kim is an opportunity where the administration can and should express concerns over Kim Jong-un’s egregious human rights track record. Join us for a conversation on how and why raising human rights issues advances U.S. national security objectives.
Featuring
Jung Pak, Ph.D.
Senior Fellow and SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Brookings Institution
Greg Scarlatoiu
Executive Director, The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
Dan Aum
Director of the Washington, D.C. Office , National Bureau for Asian Research
Hosted by:
Olivia Enos
Policy Analyst, Asian Studies Center
3. Unraveling the Web: Dismantling Transnational Organized Crime Networks in the Americas | Tuesday, October 30 | 1 pm – 3:35 pm | American Enterprise Institute, Cohosted by Federalist Society | 1789 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The United States and its neighbors face an ever-evolving threat of transnational organized crime. Last year, AEI released a tactical report on how US policymakers and law enforcement can target this threat. The Trump administration has been proactive in confronting threat networks close to home in the Americas. However, there is much more work to be done to dismantle criminal syndicates. How can policymakers bolster regional security cooperation, help local economies affected by these groups, and ensure US agencies have the resources they need for this fight?
Join AEI and the Federalist Society for a discussion on the Trump administration’s options in the fight against transnational organized crime in the Americas. Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea will deliver opening remarks, followed by panel discussions.
Agenda
12:45 PM
Registration
1:00 PM
Opening remarks:
Marshall Billingslea, US Treasury Department
1:35 PM
Q&A
1:45 PM
Panel discussion I
Participants:
Douglas Farah, IBI Consultants
Emanuele Ottolenghi, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Celina Realuyo, National Defense University
Moderator:
Roger F. Noriega, AEI
2:20 PM
Q&A
2:30 PM
Break
2:35 PM
Panel discussion II
Participants:
William Brownfield, US Department of State (former)
Clay R. Fuller, AEI
Patrick Hovakimian, Department of Justice
Welby Leaman, Walmart
Moderator:
James Dunlop, Jones Day
3:25 PM
Q&A
3:35 PM
Adjournment
4. The Protection of Civilians in U.S. Partnered Operations | Tuesday, October 30 | 3 pm – 4:30 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies in partnership with the Center for Civilians in Conflict and InterAction| 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington DC 20036 | Register Here
Join us for the report launch of “The Protection of Civilians in U.S. Partnered Operations,” a joint initiative between the CSIS International Security Program, the Center for Civilians in Conflict, and InterAction. The event agenda is as follows:
Agenda
3:00 PM – 3:10 PM: Briefing: Report Findings
- Daniel R. Mahanty, Director of the U.S. Program, Center for Civilians in Conflict
- Jenny McAvoy, Director of Protection, InterAction
3:10 PM – 4:30 PM: Moderated Discussion: Protection of Civilians in U.S. Partnered Operations
- Charles “Cob” Blaha, Director, Office of Security and Human Rights, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Department of State
- Alexandra Boivin, Head of Regional Delegation for the United States and Canada, International Committee of the Red Cross
- Amanda Catanzano, Senior Director, International Programs Policy and Advocacy, International Rescue Committee
- Mark Swayne, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability and Humanitarian Affairs, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, U.S. Department of Defense
- Moderator: Melissa Dalton, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, International Security Program, and Director, Cooperative Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
5. The China Debate: Are US and Chinese long-term interests fundamentally incompatible? | Tuesday, October 30 | 3:30 pm – 5 pm | Brookings Institution, Cohosted by Yale Law School | 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency have coincided with an intensification in competition between the United States and China. Across nearly every facet of the relationship—trade, investment, technological innovation, military dialogue, academic exchange, relations with Taiwan, the South China Sea—tensions have risen and cooperation has waned. To some observers, the more competitive nature of U.S.-China relations was long in the making; to others, it is the outgrowth of recent decisions made by leaders in Washington and Beijing.
On Tuesday, October 30, Evan Osnos will moderate a public debate about the future of U.S.-China relations. Two teams of distinguished experts will examine whether or not U.S. and Chinese interests are “fundamentally incompatible,” as a recent survey by Foreign Affairs posed. Both sides will consider areas where U.S. and Chinese vital interests converge and diverge, whether each country’s national ambitions are reconcilable with the other’s goals, how the United States can best manage great power competition with China, and how domestic politics factor in within each country.
Moderator:
Evan OsnosP
Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center
Team Yes:
Evan Medeiros
Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies – Georgetown University
Thomas Wright
Director – Center on the United States and Europe, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
Team No:
David M. Lampton
Hyman Professor and Direcotr of China Studies Emeritus – Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Susan A. Thornton
Senior Fellow – Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School, Former Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs – U.S. Department of State
6. Saving Democracy: The Constitutional Dimension | Thursday, November 1 | 9 am – 10:15 am | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
With global democracy facing serious doubts about its basic health and longevity, comparative studies of safeguards and threats to democracy are multiplying. University of Chicago law professor Tom Ginsburg will join Carnegie’s Thomas Carothers to discuss the constitutional dimensions of democratic decay and survival.
In a new book, How to Save a Constitutional Democracy, Ginsburg and Aziz Z. Huq analyze lessons from around the world about how constitutions sometimes help and sometimes hurt democracy, including a hard comparative look at the U.S. Constitution and its role in America’s democratic troubles. In this session, Ginsburg will present the main findings of their study, including proposals for legal and constitutional measures that can help reduce the risk of democratic backsliding in both the United States and younger democracies around the world.
TOM GINSBURG
Tom Ginsburg is Leo Spitz professor of international law, Ludwig and Hilde Wolf research scholar, and professor of political science at the University of Chicago
THOMAS CAROTHERS
Thomas Carothers is senior vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In that capacity he oversees all of the research programs at Carnegie. He also directs the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program.
7. Course Change or Full Speed Ahead? Post-Midterm U.S. Foreign Policy’s Impact on Indo-Pacific | Friday, November 2 | 11 am – 12 pm | Stimson Center | 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, 8th Floor, Washington DC. 20036 | Register Here
The United States midterm elections may determine whether U.S. foreign policy changes course in 2019 or holds steady. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. foreign policy agenda has undergone some changes, rarely mentioning U.S. values and at times displaying disconnect between rhetoric and policy implementation. Particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, where the Trump administration has discussed disengagement and international cooperation by turns, post-election U.S. foreign policy will impact how current shifts in the security environment play out. After the midterms, will Congress forge a new consensus on how foreign policy should be conducted? Or if there is no course change, what will be the potential consequences for future presidents’ foreign policy agenda? Join Stimson and the Canon Institute for Global Studies for a seminar to discuss these questions, as well as how U.S. foreign policy looks from the outside, and what impact it will have on the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
Featuring:
DEREK MITCHELL, President, National Democratic Institute (NDI) Ambassador
KUNI MIYAKE, Research Director for Foreign and National Security Affairs, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)
DANIEL TWINING, President, International Republican Institute (IRI)
YUKI TATSUMI, Co-Director, East Asia Program, Stimson (moderator)
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The Carnegie Endowment for Middle
East Peace hosted two panels on Tuesday for the release of their new study Arab
Horizons: Pitfalls and Pathways to Renewal. The report was the second major
installment within the Arab Horizons project launched by Carnegie 3 years ago. William
Burns, president of Carnegie, introduced the report and discussed the history
of the Arab Horizons project, saying, “the object was straightforward, if
ambitious: to look beyond the tumult around us, to the long-term trajectory of
the region, its people and its place in the world. What we wanted to offer was
an updated picture of the human and political landscapes of the region,
building less on pronouncements and prescriptions from Washington, and more on
the perspectives from Carnegie’s network across the Arab world.”
“The Arab regional order is collapsing: politically, economically, socially even. We don’t have answers to any of these questions, but… lets go back to first principles and try to provide a road map for leaders, policy makers, activists and citizens.”
– Perry Cammack
The first report, Arab Fractures, Burns described as an updated
assessment of the Middle East, “by the region, for the region, for all those
with a stake in its future.” The latest installment, Pitfalls and Pathways to
Renewal, offered a set of principles and recommendations, “to address the
stark diagnosis” in the first report.
Burns acknowledged Jamal Kashoggi as one of the project’s partners and addressed his abduction and murder as indicative of the lack of tolerance for “stubborn, independent journalists, unafraid to speak truth to power” within the current social contract of the Arab world. “It’s a region where authoritarians feel the wind in their sails, and it is a time where democracies around the world, including my own, are adrift and losing their way.” Burns lamented ailing institutions and the increasing politics of fear, but, “all of this reminds us of the urgent task of rewriting the social contract in the Arab world.” Social contract was the buzzword of the day throughout a discussion which was at turns hopeful for the talents of the Arab people and scathingly critical of the leadership from their governments.
The first discussion featured Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights 2014-2018 and former Jordanian Ambassador to the US, and moderator Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at Carnegie and former Jordanian foreign minister. Reminiscing with each another, Zeid laughed over past tensions between two career civil servants who shared a vision for the future of their country, but at times disagreed on how to get there. He shared with the crowd how after his retirement from the civil service he and Marwan sat down over ceviche in New York to chat, and Marwan took the opportunity to ask him, “How many of my instructions as foreign minister do you think you actually implemented as the ambassador?” “For you, my friend” Hussein replied, “maybe 70%.”
Hussein communicated through anecdotes, walking through pivotal moments and realizations in his career which shaped his outlook on the region and the world. Again and again his stories homed in on key policy grievances in the Middle East: lack of commitment to individual rights and free thought. This problem is symptomatic of an incomplete transition from tribal to modern states and a stubborn unwillingness by Arab politicians to call a spade a spade or confront their failures.
The second panel featured Marwan
Muasher again, along with Perry Cammack, a fellow in the Middle East program at
Carnegie, both contributors to the report, along with Rabah Azreki, chief
economist for the Middle East and North African Region at the World Bank and
Hala Aldosari, a researcher and scholar on human rights and women’s health at
the Center for Human Rights and Global Justice. Elise Labott, CNN’s global
affairs correspondent, moderated.
“The Arab world has two choices and
two choices only: either the headache of change or the cancer of the status quo”
– Marwan Muasher
Discussion reverted repeatedly to stagnation and change, locked in conflict. The oil economy has long sustained rentier states, headed by leaders who resisted change as a matter of principal. As oil prices drop, the social bargains they supported are buckling, explaining the events Muasher described as the last kick of authoritarianism in the region. It all led neatly to one pressing need: to renew the social contract in the Arab world in a way that puts citizens first.
The West errs in seeing each new generation of the old guard as reformers. Symbolic gestures along the lines of Saudi Arabia allowing women the right to drive, even while imprisoning Saudi activists who advocated those reforms, are evidence of an empty promise designed to stall the will of the people, not further it. The idea that change in the Middle East needs to be led by authoritarian reformers is false. In fact the people have been leading.
As the discussion swayed between hope and fear for the near future of the Arab world, a central narrative emerged: the Arab world desperately needs change, the people know this, and yet as change hurtles towards them at frightening speed, the current political leaders cling desperately and futilely to the status quo. A diverse wealth of human capital promises to hold the keys to that change if their leaders will only invest in them and hand them the reins. What remains to be seen is if change will be given or taken.
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- Defusing the South China Sea Disputes: A Regional Blueprint | Monday, October 15, 2018 | 10 am – 12 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join us for the launch of Defusing the South China Sea Disputes: A Regional Blueprint by the CSIS Expert Working Group on the South China Sea, which brings together prominent experts on maritime law, international relations, and the marine environment from China, Southeast Asia, and beyond. Members of the group gathered three times between July 2017 and July 2018 to discuss issues that they consider necessary for the successful management of the South China Sea disputes, and produced blueprints for a path forward on each. The members believe these three proposed agreements add up to a robust model for managing the South China Sea disputes, one which would be both legally and politically feasible for all parties.
The working group includes a diverse set of 27 experts from claimant states and interested countries, including the United States. It is chaired by Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. All members take part in their personal capacities, not as representatives of their home institutions. They are invited to join the group based on their subject matter expertise and willingness to reach creative compromises.
Agenda
Summary of Blueprints
Gregory B. Poling, Director, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS
Panel Discussion with Members
Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, CSIS
Prashanth Parameswaran, Senior Editor, The Diplomat
Amy Searight, Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program, CSIS
This report was made possible by general funding to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.
2. The Evolving Iranian Strategy in Syria: A Looming Conflict with Israel | Wednesday, October 17, 2018 | 9 am – 10:30 am | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Iranian regime has spent considerable energy capitalizing on chaos in Syria to establish transit routes from Iran to the Mediterranean. Israel has followed the movements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies in Syria warily, laying out clear red lines to deter Iranian overreach. The IRGC-Quds Force rocket attack on Israeli military posts in the Golan in May 2018 instigated Israeli retaliation against Iranian-backed ground forces. Although Iran did not respond in kind, tensions along Israel’s northwestern border and in southern Syria persist, and the potential for an Israeli-Iranian conflict looms.
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft and Rafik Hariri Centers on Wednesday, October 17 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. for the launch of nonresident senior fellow Nader Uskowi’s issue brief on Iran’s evolving strategy in Syria and the implications for regional security. This discussion will focus on the possibility for future conflict between Iran and Israel as the Syrian conflict enters its next phase, as well as how the United States can adapt its own policies to reflect the altered power structure in the region.
A conversation with:
Nader Uskowi
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council
Assaf Orion
Military Fellow
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Jennifer Cafarella
Director of Intelligence Planning
Institute for the Study of War
3. Championing the Frontlines of Freedom: Erasing the “Grey Zone” | Thursday, October 18, 2018 | 9 am – 4:30 pm | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC | Register Here
The countries of Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine stand at a crossroads. Perched between Russia and the West, they have chosen a path of economic and political reform and closer relations with the West. They face substantial challenges dealing with the systemic legacy of the Soviet period as they pursue reform, while also confronting Kremlin interference in their affairs and occupation of their land. Once described as part of a geopolitical “grey zone,” these countries are working to instead be seen as states on the “frontlines of freedom” with futures as free, whole, and secure European states.
At this conference, the Atlantic Council will convene a group of experts to discuss topics such as the historical origins of the so-called “grey zone,” the Kremlin’s use of frozen conflicts, transatlantic policy toward the region, and democratic progress in these states.
This event will include a spotlight address from the Hon. A. Wess Mitchell, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, on US strategy in Central and Eastern Europe.
Agenda
Introduction
Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council
Keynote Remarks
The Hon. Roger Wicker, US Senator for Mississippi, US Senate
Address: The Historical Origins of the Frontlines of Freedom
Dr. Serhii Plokhii, Director, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University
Address: “Grey Zone” Past and Future
The Hon. Kurt Volker, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, US Department of State
Fireside Chat
Dr. Serhii Plokhii, Director, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University
The Hon. Kurt Volker, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, US Department of State
Moderated by: Mr. Mark Simakovsky, Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Panel I: Frozen Conflicts and the Kremlin’s Agenda
Mr. Denis Cenusa, Researcher, Institut für Politikwissenschaft, Justus-Liebig-Universität
Ambassador John Herbst, Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Minister Tinatin Khidasheli, Former Defense Minister, Republic of Georgia
Ms. Maria Snegovaya, Adjunct Fellow, Center for European Policy and Analysis; Research Associate, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland
Ambassador James Warlick, Partner and Senior Policy Adviser, Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev & Partners
Moderated by: Dr. Michael Carpenter, Senior Director, Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement; Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Spotlight Address: Strategy in Central and Eastern Europe
The Hon. A. Wess Mitchell, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, US Department of State
Introduced by: Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council
Panel II: Transatlantic Policy Towards the Region
H.E. David Bakradze, Ambassador of Georgia to the United States
Mr. David Kramer, Senior Fellow, Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy, Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs, Florida International University
Mr. Alex Tiersky, Senior Policy Adviser, US Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe
Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council
Moderated by: Ms. Melinda Haring, Editor, UkraineAlert, Atlantic Council
Panel III: Democratic Progress in the Frontlines of Freedom
Mr. Carl Gershman, President, National Endowment for Democracy
Dr. Laura Jewett, Senior Associate and Regional Director for Eurasia, National Democratic Institute
Mr. Stephen Nix, Regional Director, Eurasia, International Republican Institute
Moderated by: Ms. Eka Gigauri, Executive Director, Transparency International Georgia
4. Restraining Great Powers: Soft Balancing From Empires to the Global Era | Thursday, October 18, 2018 | 2 pm – 4 pm | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Countering traditional notions of balance-of-power theory, smaller states have not joined together militarily to oppose the United States’ rising power at the end of the Cold War, Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, or Russian offensives along its Western border. Instead, balance-of-power politics has taken a different form.
In a new book, Restraining Great Powers: Soft Balancing from Empires to the Global Era, T.V. Paul argues that leading powers have engaged in “soft balancing,” which seeks to restrain threatening powers through the use of international institutions, informal alignments, and economic sanctions. Placing the evolution of balancing behavior in historical context, Paul examines how subtler forms of balance-of-power politics can help states achieve their goals against aggressive powers without wars or arms races. Paul will be joined in conversation by Richard Fontaine and Ellen Laipson. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate. Copies of the book will be available for sale.
T.V. PAUL
T.V. Paul is James McGill Professor of International Relations in the department of Political Science at McGill University.
RICHARD FONTAINE
Richard Fontaine is the president of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
ELLEN LAIPSON
Ellen Laipson is the director of the Master’s in International Security degree program and the Center for Security Policy Studies at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
Ashley J. Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
5. Breaking Rules to Build Peace: The Role of Leadership and Accountability in Peacebuilding | Thursday, October 18, 2018 | 3 pm – 5 pm | US Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
Why do peacebuilders sometimes succeed and sometimes fail, even within the same country? Why can organizations not guarantee the same results from the same policies? Peacebuilders struggle to answer these questions and create programs with consistently positive results. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace as we discuss policy recommendations drawn from new research highlighting unexpected solutions to a long-standing challenge.
Organizations that work to build peace in fragile states often fail to meet the stated goals of the programs they design to resolve violent conflict. In her newly published book, Global Governance and Local Peace: Accountability and Performance in International Peacebuilding, Susanna Campbell dives into why peacebuilding organizations often fail and presents one of the keys to success: local actors that force organizations to stay accountable to local peacebuilding goals. Join experts as they discuss Campbell’s findings and how country-based staff can sidestep normal accountability procedures and empower local actors to push for innovative solutions to local problems.
Speakers
Susanna Campbell
Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University
Michael Barnett
Professor, International Affairs and Political Science, The George Washington University
Mike Jobbins
Senior Director of Partnerships and Engagement, Search for Common Ground
Kate Somvongsiri
Acting Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau of Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development
Leanne Erdberg, moderator
Director, Countering Violent Extremism, The U.S. Institute of Peace
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1. What Drives Violence in Central America’s Northern Triangle? | Tuesday, September 25, 2018 | 9:30 am – 11:00 am | U.S. Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
Violence and crime are the main drivers of mass immigration from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador into the United States. These countries form a region known as the Northern Triangle, which ranks in the top 10 worldwide for homicide, corruption, drug trafficking and gang violence. Non-state actors perpetuate insecurity, forcibly recruit individuals into their ranks and use sexual violence as a tool of intimidation and control.
Central America became a key area of U.S. foreign policy in the late 1970s, when a number of conflicts and revolutions broke out across the region. U.S. development assistance spiked during this period and during the early 2000s as conflict began to increase again. A significant amount of these funds were allocated to the war on drugs, rather than for security, peace and development. As conflict continues to escalate in Central America, how can the U.S. mitigate the violence, support and strengthen rule of law, and curb immigration?
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace and the partners of the Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum (CPRF) for a discussion on the issues facing Central America, and how the peacebuilding community can develop programming to prevent and mitigate violence, support community resilience and help stabilize the region. Join the conversation on Twitter with #CPRF.
Since 1999, the CPRF has provided a monthly platform in Washington that highlights innovative and constructive methods of conflict resolution. CPRF’s goals are to (1) provide information from a wide variety of perspectives; (2) explore possible solutions to complex conflicts; and (3) provide a secure venue for stakeholders from various disciplines to engage in cross-sector and multi-track problem-solving. The CPRF is hosted at USIP and SAIS and organized by the Conflict Management Program in conjunction with Search for Common Ground. The CPRF is co-sponsored by a consortium of organizations that specialize in conflict resolution and/or public policy formulation.
Speakers
Steve Hege
Senior Expert, Colombia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Enrique Roig
Director, Citizen Security Practice Area Creative Associates International
Others TBD
2. China: Managing Conflict and Competition | Thursday, September 27, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:00 pm | U.S. Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
The evolution of U.S.-China relations over the last 40 years presents challenges that, if not properly managed, threaten American leadership in key places of strategic interest, from Asia to Africa to the Western Hemisphere. Please join us for a Bipartisan Congressional Dialogue with two members of Congress who see tension rising as cooperation recedes and the People’s Republic of China increases its malicious activity in cyberspace, expands its military capabilities and presence around the globe, and uses economic tools to gain strategic leverage and undermine democracy in fragile states.
Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT) and Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD) are both members of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations and Related Agencies. Rep. Stewart also serves on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and Rep. Ruppersberger was the first Democratic Freshman appointed to the Committee and concluded his service on the Committee as the Ranking Member. Both Representatives will discuss Congress’ efforts to focus attention on China’s military, diplomatic, and economic approaches around the globe at USIP’s sixth Bipartisan Congressional Dialogue.
Moderated by Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace
3. Double Game: Why Pakistan Supports Militants and Resists U.S. Pressure to Stop | Thursday, September 27, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | CATO Institute | 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001 | Register Here
Featuring Sahar Khan, Visiting Research Fellow, Cato Institute; Ambassador Robin L. Raphel, Former Assistant Secretary of State, South Asia; moderated by John Glaser, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.
The Trump administration has taken a hardline approach toward Pakistan, cutting military and security aid throughout 2018 and accusing Pakistan of not doing enough to combat militants operating on its soil. Pakistan, however, maintains that it has eliminated all safe havens and that the United States is unfairly targeting the country.
Washington’s conventional wisdom on Pakistan correctly links militant sponsorship with the state’s military and intelligence agencies. As such, U.S. policies to combat Pakistan’s militant sponsorship have primarily focused on pressuring the military. In a new report, Sahar Khan analyzes Pakistan’s anti-terrorism legal regime, judiciary, and police and finds that in the context of counterterrorism, civil institutions have developed policies and bureaucratic routines that reinforce the military’s policy of sponsoring militant groups. And this is one of the primary reasons why U.S. attempts to change Pakistan’s policy of militant sponsorship have failed.
Please join us for a lively discussion, with lunch to follow.
4. The Nation-State Law: Implications for Democracy and Peace in Israel/ Palestine | Thursday, September 27, 2018 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Foundation for Middle East Peace | 1319 18th St NW, Washington DC 20036 | Register Here
In July of this year, the Israeli Knesset passed the “Nation-State” law, defining Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people exclusively. The law poses a major threat to the status of minorities in Israel, especially Palestinian citizens of Israel, who comprise around 20% of the population. Because it can be interpreted to apply to the territories occupied by Israel in 1967, it is also poised to entrench Israel’s occupation. Join us for a conversation about the implications of the law for Israel’s minorities, Middle East peace, and the future of Israeli democracy.
Speakers:
Jafar Farah is the founder and the Director of Mossawa, the Advocacy Center for Arab Citizens in Israel. Jafar is a long-time advocate and activist for civil rights for the Arab community. As a community organizer and activist he was involved in establishing several organizations such as I’lam, ACAP (Arab Center for Alternative Planning) and the follow up committee for Arab education. Before establishing Mossawa, Jafar worked as a journalist for the Local network of Ha’aretz and as a TV producer.
Nabila Espanioly is a feminist and peace activist who founded the Pedagogical Center and Multipurpose Women’s Centre in Nazareth (Al-Tufula) in 1989 and has served as the director since that time. She has an M.A. in Psychology from Bamberg University, Germany and a B.A. in Social Work from Haifa University.
Dr. Debra Shushan is Director of Policy and Government Relations at Americans for Peace Now. Prior to joining APN, she specialized in the politics of the Middle East and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an Assistant Professor of Government at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, VA. Dr. Shushan’s writing appears in Haaretz and she is a regular guest on “The Spin Room” on Israel’s i24 TV.
5. Fixing Fragility in the Sahel | Friday, September 28, 2018 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Brookings Institution | 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
According to the 2018 Failed States Index, 10 of the world’s most fragile states are in Africa and the Sahel region is a particular locus of concern. Countries such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, Mali, and Niger, are facing challenges associated with violent extremism, organized, and transnational criminal networks. During the past decade, terrorists groups such as al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, the Islamic State, and Boko Haram have killed thousands of people, displaced populations, and threatened stability and security.
Mali’s own efforts at national as well as Sahel-wide stabilization are instructive. In spite of the establishment of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali—MINUSMA—and the efforts of the G-5 Sahel, along with international efforts to bring peace and security, fragility continues to undermine socio-economic development progress. Creating a viable future for the region will require interlinked solutions at the nexus of economics, security, state capacity, humanitarian efforts, and international interventions.
On September 28, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings will host His Excellency Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, president of Mali and co-founder of the G-5 Sahel. President Keita will deliver opening remarks, after which he will sit down for an interview with Brookings President John R. Allen.
6. Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics | Friday, September 28, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | CATO Institute | 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001 | Register Here
Featuring the author Yochai Benkler, Berkman Professor of Entrepreneurial Legal Studies, Harvard Law School; with comments by Rebecca MacKinnon, Director, Ranking Digital Rights project, New America; moderated by Julian Sanchez, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute.
The internet and social media were supposed to radically democratize news and information—yet many observers now worry that they are undermining the preconditions for healthy democracies. Misinformation peddled by conspiracy theorists, unscrupulous clickbaiters, and even intelligence agencies spreads around the globe at the speed of light, while in the United States, citizens increasingly retreat into distinct media ecosystems so divergent as to be mutually unrecognizable. Can liberal democracy function in a world in which voters no longer inhabit the same universe of facts?
We’ll take up these questions with renowned scholar Yochai Benkler, coauthor of the important new book-length study Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics. We’ll take a close look at the dynamics of how propaganda, misinformation, and “fake news” propagate across modern information networks. Rebecca MacKinnon, author of Consent of the Networked: The Worldwide Struggle for Internet Freedom, and Cato senior fellow Julian Sanchez provide commentary.
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