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Peace Picks: December 3 – 9

Posted in Tal Marom - December 3, 2018 - 0 Comment

An acute crisis has been unfolding in the Gaza Strip for over a decade. Its nearly 2 million residents live amid a man-made humanitarian disaster, with severe urban crowding, staggering unemployment, and a dire scarcity of basic services, including electricity, water, and sewage treatment. Three rounds of open warfare have devastated Gaza while placing Israelis under constant threat. Recent weeks have seen a sharp escalation in fighting, again illustrating the precarious balance of this situation. Moreover, the continued political and physical separation of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank hinders Palestinian national development while making a two-state solution even more remote.

On December 3, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and the Center for a New American Security will launch their new report, “Ending Gaza’s Perpetual Crisis: A New U.S. Approach.” The authors, informed by the deliberations of a high-level task force on the future of U.S. policy toward Gaza, argue that the United States should no longer accept the perpetuation of the current state of affairs in Gaza, given its moral, security, and political costs. They propose instead a route by which American policymakers can help bring an end to this continued state of crisis.

Speakers
Hady Amr
Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy

Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy

Ilan Goldberg
Senior Fellow and Director, Middle East Security Program at Center for a New American Security

Khaled Elgindy
Fellow, Foreign Policy & Center for Middle East Policy

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen
Director, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Program at US Institute of Peace

Dennis Ross
William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

After the Ukraine crisis, Belarus has improved its image as a contributor to regional security. Part of this shift stems from greater cooperation with the West. This, along with Minsk’s selective non-compliance with Eurasian integration, however, brings closer scrutiny and potential pressure from Moscow. This panel will host a delegation of Belarusian analysts, organized by Pact and USAID, to offer a fresh examination of Belarus’s relationship with the West and with Moscow

Speakers
Vasili Kukharchyk
Country Director, Pact Belarus
Chief of Party, USAID BRAMA Activity

Kateryna Bornukova
Academic Director, Belarus Economic Research and Outreach Center

Yauheni Preiherman
Director, Minks Dialogue

How is the threat of terrorism defined in the East Asia Pacific? Who are the actors and what are their objectives? What are the technologies of terrorism and appropriate policy measures to combat the evolving threat? Moreover, how do individual states and the international community ensure that counterterrorism policies protect individual rights under the rule of law?

On December 4, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host distinguished U.S. and Asian counterterrorism experts to articulate the terrorist threat in East Asia and how it has evolved in the region. Panelists will also assess the mechanisms for protecting civil liberties and good governance under a counterterrorism strategy, as well as its implications for regional and international cooperation. This conference is part of the Asia Transnational Threats Forum, an interdisciplinary forum launched by the Brookings Korea Chair that harnesses the collective expertise of U.S. and foreign partners to tackle key strategic issues affecting all of Asia. The first event was on cybersecurity in Asia on June 2018.

Speakers
Jung H. Pak
SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy & Center for East Asia Policy Studies

Yeong Gi Mun
Director, National Counterterrorism Center of the Republic of Korea

Audrey Kurth Cronin
Professor of International Security, American University

Mayuko Hori
Chief Officer, Counterterrorism Cooperation Unit of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

Samm Sacks
Cybersecurity Fellow and China Digital Economy Fellow, New America

Joshua Geltzer
Visiting Professor of Law, Georgetown University

Zachary Abuza
Professor of National Security Strategy, National War College

James Baker
Visiting Fellow, Governance Studies

Ji-Hyang Jang
Senior Fellow, Asian Institute for Policy Studies

Jeffrey Feltman
Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy

The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) are pleased to announce the 9^th Annual Conference on Turkey. The conference will bring together international policy makers and experts to discuss the challenges Turkey faces domestically and its relations with the Middle East and the West.

Speakers
Knut Dethlefsen
Representative to the US and Canada, FES

Gonul Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies at Middle East Institute

Mustafa Akyol
Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the CATO Institute

Abdullah Akyuz
Former President, Turkish Industry and Business Association

Sinan Ciddi
Executive Director, Institute for Turkish Studies at Georgetown University

Menderes Cinar
Professor of Political Science, Baskent University

Max Hofman
Associate Director, National Security and International Policy at Center for American Progress

The Honorable Serpil Midyatli
Member, State Parliament of Germany

Berkin Safak Sener
International Consultant on Employment, UN Development Programme

Semuhi Sinanoglu
PhD Student at Department of Political Science, University of Toronto

Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein
Senior Vice President, Middle East Institute

… and others.

Over the past two years, the Atlantic Council’s Rebuilding Syria Initiative has worked to inform and advance transatlantic policy to foster a transition toward legitimate public order in Syria through economic reconstruction and stabilization. In this effort, we have pooled expertise from specialists to cover the many challenges of rebuilding Syria, including in political economy, development, infrastructure, civil society, law, and employment.

Lessons learned from these engagements are captured in the Initiative’s final report, “Rethinking Stabilization in Eastern Syria: Toward a Human Security Framework,” authored by Dr. Steven Heydemann.

The report finds that as the focus of the Syrian conflict narrows to the two remaining contested areas of the country, the presence of US forces on the ground gives the United States some leverage in shaping the closing trajectory of the conflict. In eastern Syria, the United States has an opportunity to use stabilization—a political endeavor to create conditions where locally legitimate authorities and systems can peaceably manage conflict—to advance both short- and long-term interests.

Speakers
Dr. Steven Heydemann
Professor in Middle East Studies, Smith College

Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes
Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution

Faysal Itani
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council

Hudson Institute will host a timely discussion on the increasing risk that rapidly emerging advanced technologies pose to U.S national security. To explore these critical issues, Rep. Mike McCaul, Chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, will deliver keynote remarks then engage in a moderated Q&A with Senior Fellow Arthur Herman, director of Hudson’s Quantum Alliance Initiative.

Competitor nations, such as Russia and China, have devoted significant resources in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum information science, particularly quantum computing. A recent report from the bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States warned that “U.S. superiority in key areas of innovation is decreasing or has disappeared [while] U.S. competitors are investing heavily in innovation.” Given their enormous promise for benefiting human kind, how should Washington respond to ensure U.S. military superiority while also promoting the peaceful use of AI and quantum technology?

A panel discussion will follow Rep. McCaul’s remarks with Dr. Herman, Aaron VanDevender from Founders Fund, Elsa Kania from the Center for New American Security, Andrew Kim from Google, and Hudson Senior Fellow Sorin Ducaru, a former senior NATO official for emerging security challenges.

Speakers
The Honorable Mike McCaul (R-TX)
Chair, Homeland Security Committee, House of Representatives

Aaron Van Devender
Chief Scientist, Founders Fund

Elsa Kania
Adjunct Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, Center for New American Strategy

Sorin Ducaru
Former Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Arthur Herman
Senior Fellow and Director, Quantum Alliance Initiative, Hudson Institute

Andrew Kim
Senior Analyst, Public Policy and Government Relations, Google

Please join CSIS and the United States Naval Institute (USNI) for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring a conversation with the Honorable Richard V. Spencer, 76th Secretary of the Navy. He will be discussing the state of the Navy and Marine Corps and innovation in the naval domain.

Speakers
The Honorable Richard V. Spencer
76th Secretary of the Navy

Vice Admiral Peter Daly, USN (ret.)
Chief Executive Officer, US Naval Institute

John J. Hamre
CSIS President and CEO

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a moderated conversation on Syria with Salman Shaikh, the founder and CEO of The Shaikh Group, and Ambassador Frederic C. Hof. Syria’s political process is at a standstill, with a constitutional commission still not formed and UN Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, soon to depart his role. With the conflict continuing to evolve and international attention shifting, new thinking is needed to tackle the Middle East’s most thorny issue: how to resolve the crisis in Syria.

Shaikh will discuss his lessons learned from many years of intensive Track II efforts on Syria and how they might be applied to designing more effective, alternative pathways forward; and Hof will expand on the implications and sustainability of the newly announced U.S. strategy in Syria and prospects for progress on the political track.

MEI’s senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program Charles Lister will moderate the conversation.

Speakers
Amb. Frederic C. Hof
Professor and Diplomatic in Residence, Bard College
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

Salman Shaikh
Founder and CEO, The Shaikh Group

Charles Lister
Senior Fellow and Director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, Middle East Institute

Tags : artificial intelligence, Asia, Counterterrorism, eastern europe, gaza, Israel, maritime, Palestine, Security, South Korea, Syria, The Middle East, Turkey

Iraqi trends

Posted in Tal Marom - December 1, 2018 - 0 Comment

The Washington Institute on Near East Policy hosted a panel on emerging political trends in Iraq’s post-election period on November 27th. The panel featured Munqith Dagher, CEO of Baghdad-based Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS), Ahmed Ali, program officer at the National Endowment for Democracy, and David Pollock, Berinstein Fellow at the Washington Institute and director of its Fikra Forum.

While many Americans are tired of Iraq, Pollock reminded that it is still of strategic importance to American interests, which include preventing the country from incubating terrorism and tipping the region in a hostile, pro-Iran direction. It is also a potential demographic, economic, and religious powerhouse in the region. Iraqi oil exports are half those of the Saudis. Because of the 2003 invasion, the success of Iraq reflects on America’s political clout in the region, with many people seeing Iraq as a US responsibility.

Pollock pointed out the importance of public opinion polling in Iraq, a powerful but underutilized tool. The rise of the Islamic State in 2014 and the divisions arising from Kurdistan’s 2017 independence referendum were in line with Dagher’s polling at the time. To avoid being taken by surprise in the post-election space, public opinion-informed policy is crucial.

Dagher stated that we are at a crossroads in Iraqi attitudes, with three transformative shifts in public opinion.

1. A shift in inter-sectarian dynamics

For the first time since 2003, Sunnis are overall happier than Shi’a and Kurds. More specifically, they have more trust in the central Iraqi government than their Shi’a counterparts, an increase from 20% in 2016 to 50% today. Sunni Arabs have been reluctant to participate in the political process since Saddam’s ousting, and Dagher emphasized that this moment should be capitalized on to get them involved in the political process.

2. From inter to intra-sectarian conflicts

Iraq has a long history of sectarian politics. We are finally seeing a shift towards interest-based politics. Sectarian identity as the most important source of identity has dropped to below 10% for all three groups. It was as high as 61% in 2013 among Kurds. Iraqi citizenship as the most important source of identity has increased significantly among Shi’a. While it is still very low for Kurds at 6%, there are so signs of further decrease. Across various polling questions, namely if Iraq is heading in the wrong direction, geography is playing a more important role than ever. For example, Sunni Arabs in Mosul are significantly more likely to believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction (69%) than Sunni Arabs in general (55%), as are the Shi’a Arabs of Basra than Shi’a at large.

3. Less international polarization

The ability of regional actors to take advantage of Iraq’s traditional sectarian divisions has also diminished. Iran’s popularity, when asked if it is a reliable partner, has dropped from 75% to 44% among Shi’a Arabs in the last two years alone. The most significant drop was between 2017 (70%) and today (44%), which Dagher attributed to the protests in Basra as well as the visible interference of both the US and Iran in the recent election. Access to information has increased as a result of growing internet use among Iraqis. It jas increased from 40% in 2014 to 80% today. Ninety per cent of Iraqi youth have at least one social media account. Among Sunni Arabs, favorable views of Saudi Arabia have decreased from 90% in 2012 to 61% today.

These trends are overshadowed by more alarming shifts under the surface. The population thinks the country is heading in the wrong direction more than ever, with 80% of respondents agreeing compared to 50% in April 2012. The most recent election has been marred by the fact that less than 1 in 5 respondents thought it free and fair. Dagher warned that lack of trust in the democratic political system might explain why 66% prefer a “strong leader who doesn’t care about Parliament nor elections,” accompanied by dramatic decreases in voter turnout. Ali attributed this legitimacy crisis to the gulf between politicians’ and the public’s views. He cited the Basra anti-corruption protests, which were predictable, and the lack of serious response from the Iraqi government.

For Ali, the big area for policy makers is post-ISIS reconstruction. Addressing grievances in post-ISIS regions and reunifying the country requires institutional governance reforms. Most importantly, the electoral process needs to be transparent and accountable to improve public trust, as demonstrated by post-election fraud allegations. The new Iraqi government has its work cut out for it.

Tags : Arabs, Democracy and Rule of Law, Iraq, ISIS, Kurds, The Middle East, United States

Security and trade post-election

Posted in Tal Marom - November 23, 2018 - 0 Comment

The Center for Strategic and International Studies November 14 hosted two panels on the midterm elections’ implications for the trans-Atlantic agenda and trade policy. The first featured a discussion with Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) and the second a conversation between CSIS experts Louis Lauter, Vice President for Congressional and Government Affairs, and William Alan Reinsch, Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business. Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and the Director of the Europe Program at CSIS, moderated.

President Trump’s current threat to leave the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty set the tone for the first discussion. Murphy framed the move as consistent with a broader agenda from the anti-institutionalists in the Administration to withdraw from multilateral organizations, with the spotlight on NATO after the President’s threatening comments last summer.

Murphy highlighted that there is a tendency in Congress to separate the President’s actions and statements from the Administration. While the President is launching rhetorical assaults against NATO, under the surface NATO cooperation continues. Many Republican colleagues have favored this approach, creating an atmosphere complacency. Murphy cautioned that the President should be taken at his word. Congress should prevent an executive withdrawal from NATO. The Senator introduced a failed bill back in July that would have required Congressional consent. There might be more interest in the Democratic-controlled House once Congress reconvenes.

Murphy warned that US foreign policy has become too sanctions dependent. There is a need to create and use alternative Congressional foreign policy instruments, a recommendation echoed by Lauter in his recent study on Congressional foreign policy preferences. The Senator recently introduced the European Energy Security and Diversification Act to finance energy infrastructure in Europe as a means to promote independence from Russia. He also pointed to the need to fund fragile democracies in the region.

Trump’s distancing the US from its NATO allies should be seen as part of a general trend towards isolationism and nationalism, in contrast to French President Macron’s vision for multilateralism and internationalism to solve global problems. Trump’s America First message still resonates with large swaths of the country, prompting Murphy to state that until we fix our domestic politics and economy, politicians will be able to sell Trump’s message in regions that have seen losses in jobs such as manufacturing.

While Reinsch pointed out that trade is low on the average voter’s motivations, Murphy underlined the connection between global institutions/alliances and the strength of the American economy and jobs. Trump’s threatening posture towards NATO does not exist in an economic vacuum. Macron has been urging Europe to become more militarily and technologically autonomous, in part by favoring European defense contractors over American ones, in response to Trump’s criticism of NATO. The steel and aluminum tariffs imposed on the EU make the situation worse.

The political divide between skeptics and supporters of liberalized international trade rests more within parties than between them, according to Reinsch and Lauter’s recent studies. Lauter’s study of the pre-election Congress’ foreign policy preferences found that Congress was fairly internationalist, with Reinsch elaborating that trade was less a partisan issue and more a regional one. The coasts tend to be pro-trade while skeptics dominate the Midwest, as demonstrated in the mixed reactions to Trump’s tariffs on the EU.

A post-election survey of incoming Democrats looked at their public statements on the issue. Twenty-four of fifty-five surveyed said nothing about trade following the election. Twenty-one made pro-trade statements, and eight anti-trade statements. While Democrats may hold the USMCA (the NAFTA replacement) hostage for political reasons, Reinsch predicted that the new Congress will include many pro-trade representatives. It is too soon to write a general obituary for trade agreements.

China is the regional challenge that will likely continue to enjoy bipartisan support, evidenced in the reaction to the Administration’s 301 report on China. The question will be how this is handled moving forward in light of Trump’s relationship with the WTO. While he has rejected appointments of new judges for its dispute appellate body and is willing to go beyond the WTO to achieve policy goals, Reinsch emphasized that the Europeans and Japanese want to address concerns over China within the context of the WTO.

Tags : China, Economy, European Union, NATO, Russia, Trump, United States

Demography is destiny

Posted in Tal Marom - November 12, 2018 - 0 Comment

The Brookings Institute November 8 hosted a discussion of the 2018 midterm election results. The panel consisted of Elaine Kamarck, founding director of the Center for Effective Public Management, William A. Galston, Ezra K. Zilkha Chair of Governance Studies, Molly E. Reynolds, Fellow of Governance Studies, and Vanessa Williamson, Fellow of Governance Studies. Panelists discussed voter demographics driving the election, with particular attention to motives, identity, and demographic divides.

Voter turnout in 2018 was unusual for a midterm election: 113 million Americans showed up, turnout of approximately 49%. This was the largest percentage for a midterm election since 1966; the all-time record set in 1914 was 51%. Midterms generally feature low voter turnout. It was 36% in 2014. Public interest and mobilization have clearly increased.

Galston cautioned that increased turnout was not the result of a predicted Blue Wave. The case of Florida demonstrates this. In 2014, 5.9 million Floridians turned out for the gubernatorial election, leading to Republican Governor Scott’s victory by less than 1%. This year, 8.1 million turned out, with Republican Ron DeSantis apparently winning the governorship by less than 1%. We are witnessing dramatic mobilization on both sides of the aisle. Reynolds pointed out that typically lagging Democratic turnout is explained by demographics (e.g., young vs. old voters).

Was this a referendum on Donald Trump? Were people voting for or against the President’s administration or policy issues? Williamson highlighted that partisan identification is a stronger predictor of voter choice now than in the past. This year’s race was about mobilization more than persuasion. This is why the country is witnessing a strong fight over the rules of the game. Battles over the democratic process were seen in Georgia, Texas, and particularly Florida, which in a referendum restored felons’ voting rights. Who is eligible and allowed to vote is critical. Passage of Florida’s Amendment 4 will significantly impact future elections, as one in five African American Floridians was previously disenfranchised.

Midterm elections often serve as a rebuke to the party in the White House, a well-studied phenomenon that many scholars view as favoring increased bipartisanship in the federal government. Kamarck saw this election as an vote for division, rather than bipartisanship. She cited differences in the Presidential and Congressional press conferences following the election. While lip service was paid in both to bipartisanship, main points of common ground were limited to “meat and potato” issues such as infrastructure and drug pricing regulation. Even so, the President threatened the prospects of bipartisan infrastructure legislation if the Democrats continue the Mueller investigation and pursue other oversight.

Galston agreed, noting that the Republicans gained seats in the Senate. That gives Majority Leader McConnell a cushion to act on his agenda of approving Republican appointments to executive and judicial positions rather than passing legislation. House Minority Leader Pelosi does not favor impeachment, but Reynolds saw House oversight as a dominating theme moving forward. She argued that Democrats will focus on the President’s tax returns, foreign governments paying to stay at Trump hotels, conflicts of interest among Cabinet Secretaries, and the recent family separation crisis at the border .

Healthcare was the most prominent policy issue in the election, featured in nearly 50% of all campaign ads and 60% of pro-Democratic ads. Democrats emphasized the failed Republican repeal of Obamacare. Pelosi believes coverage for pre-existing conditions handed Democrats victory in the House. Republican governors campaigned on preserving protections for patients with pre-existing conditions, even in states where the Attorneys General joined the lawsuit to overturn the ACA. Galston pointed to exit polls, in which 41% of voters chose healthcare as the single most important issue, trailed by immigration at approximately 30%.

Healthcare was the most prominent campaign issue, featured in nearly 50% of all campaign ads and 60% of pro-Democrat ads.

Reynolds added that different policy issues have differing significance among various demographics. Immigration remains one of the most important issues to white voters. Galston focused on young voters, whose turnout increased by 75% compared to four years ago. Gun control was a critical issue within this demographic. This is due to the role of formative generational experiences as a young adult on lifelong political views. For millennials, mass shootings, many of which have taken place on school campuses, are a defining generational experience. Since young voters are the least likely to turn out, Galston predicts that this issue will only truly head the agenda as millennials enter adulthood.

Millennials were not the only emergent demographic in the election. Kamarck noted that this election featured resurgence in women’s political participation. An overwhelming number of women candidates ran for office and won. The substantial partisan gap among white women is one important explanation for Democratic gains in suburban districts across the nation. The #MeToo Movement provided the context for these gains. Kamarck cautioned that these women are more Independents than Democrats. Reynolds attributed Democratic victories in the suburbs to the role of white, college-educated women, who are firmly entrenched in the Democratic camp. Galston recalled that the partisan gap between white, college-educated men and women is 24 points. Panelists also noted the urban vs. rural gap as one to watch, likely to be important in future elections.

The gender gap between white, college-educated men and women is a significant 24 points.

The panel ended with discussion on the future of the Democratic Party. There was no real Blue Wave, as progressives Andrew Gillum in Florida and Beto O’Rourke in Texas lost. Some “meat and potato” Democrats made gains in the Midwest, winning governorships in Wisconsin and Michigan. Galston added that Republicans did not make major gains in districts that voted for Clinton in 2016. If Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were to return to the the Democratic fold, they could regain the White House in 2020. As Galston put it, the Midwest is the cake, Florida is the frosting, and Georgia and Texas are dreams. In 2016, Clinton spent time in Arizona and Georgia. Galston speculated that the election could have turned out differently if that time and money had been spent in the upper Midwest. Democrats will only win in 2020 if they nominate a candidate fit to carry those states.

Tags : Democracy and Rule of Law, United States

Peace Picks: November 5 – 11

Posted in Tal Marom - November 6, 2018 - 0 Comment

Join the Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and the International Security Program for a discussion on national security, artificial intelligence, and the nexus between AI’s national security applications and its broader commercial applications. At this launch event, we will present the research and findings of our newest report, Artificial Intelligence and National Security: The Importance of the AI Ecosystem. A public panel discussion will follow, where dialogue will focus on opportunities and challenges in AI investment, adoption, and operational management in the context of national and international security.

Speakers
Dr. David Sparrow
Researcher, Institute for Defense Analysis

Ms. Erin Hawley
Vice President of Public Sector, DataRobot

Dr. Drew Vandeth
IBM Distinguished Researcher & Senior Intelligence Adviser – Systems Acceleration and Memory at IBM Research

Mr. Ryan Lewis
Vice President, CosmiQ Works, In-Q-Tel

Andrew Philip Hunter
Director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and Senior Fellow, International Security Program

What is the state of the war and governance in Afghanistan? With Afghanistan’s parliamentary elections having been completed, recent insider attacks, and a looming presidential election next year, critical events continue to occur in Afghanistan, yet the country where the United States remains fighting its longest war has largely disappeared from American news coverage.

To discuss current events in Afghanistan and the lead up to the country’s 2019 presidential election, New America welcomes Ioannis Koskinas, a senior fellow with New America’s International Security program currently based in Afghanistan and CEO of the Hoplite Group, a company focused on sustainable and innovative solutions to complex problems, in the most challenging environments and harshest conditions. Koskinas retired from the U.S. Air Force in 2011 after a twenty-year career in Special Operations.

Speakers
Ioannis Koskinas
Senior Fellow, New America International Security Program

Tresha Mabile
Journalist and Emmy-Award Nominated Documentary Director, Producer, and Writer

There are few relationships as long-standing, rich, and complex as the relationship between Mexico and the United States. Mexicans have always made substantial contributions to the labor force, economy, and culture of the United States, and today Mexicans continue to be the largest immigrant population in the United States. Not only is this population substantial in size, the flow of Mexican migrants coming to the United States is becoming more diverse. From farm workers to engineers, restaurant owners to computer coders, Mexican immigrants reflect more and more the diversity and richness of the Mexican labor force. Yet, the number of Mexicans migrants coming to the United States has declined significantly in recent years.

This event aims to shed light on the diversity of Mexicans migrants, as well as discuss opportunities and challenges for them to engage in U.S and Mexican policy. This event will focus on the changing face of Mexican migrants, a narrative of Mexican immigrants and their contributions to the United States, and a discussion on the political and economic power of Mexicans migrants in the UnitedStates and those return to Mexico.

Speakers
Fey Berman
Author, Mexamerica

Ramiro Cavazos
President & CEO, U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce

Alexandra Délano Alonso
Associate Professor & Chair of Global Studies, The New School

Julia Gelatt
Senior Policy Analyst, Migration Policy Institute

Mario Hernández
Director of Public Affairs, Western Union

Mark Hugo Lopez
Director of Global Migration and Demography Research, Pew Research Center

Maggie Loredo
Co-Founder & Co-Director, Otros Dreams en Acción

Ariel Ruiz Soto
Associate Policy Analyst, Migration Policy Institute

Rachel Schmidtke
Program Associate for Migration, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

Hon. Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez
Mexican Ambassador to the United States

Hudson Institute will host Emily Haber, Ambassador of Germany to the United States, for a discussion about the current state of U.S.-German relations. The conversation will be moderated by Walter Russell Mead, the Ravenel B. Curry Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at Hudson Institute.

The evolving U.S.-German relationship is facing new challenges. While Germany is a critical transatlantic ally, recently the two nations’ leaders have differed publicly on issues ranging from defense spending to trade and Russia. However, as vital trade partners and geopolitical allies, common ground and shared aims continue to unite the two nations

Speakers
Emily Haber
Ambassador of Germany to the United States

Walter Russell Mead
Ravenel B. Curry Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship, Hudson Institute

Kenneth R. Weinstein
President and CEO, Hudson Institute

In 2000, just 20 million Indians had access to the internet. By 2020, the country’s online community is projected to exceed 700 million and more than a billion Indians are expected to be online by 2025. In a new book, India Connected: How the Smartphone is Transforming the World’s Largest Democracy, Ravi Agrawal shows how widespread internet use is poised to transform everyday life in India: the status of women, education, jobs, dating, marriage, family life, commerce, and governance. Building on in-depth reportage, Agrawal will unpack the story of how smartphones and digital technologies are disrupting Indian society in creative and unsettling ways. The Asia Society Policy Institute’s Lindsey Ford will offer introductory remarks and Carnegie’s Milan Vaishnav will moderate. A reception and book signing will follow.

Speakers
Ravi Agrawal
Managing Editor, Foreign Policy Magazine

Lindsey Ford
Director of Political-Security Affairs, Richard Holbrooke Fellow, and D.C. Deputy Director, Asia Society Policy Institute

Milan Vaishnav
Director of the South Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

This year’s midterm elections could result in a major political shake-up of federal, state, and local leadership. Many candidates face tight, well-funded races and a political climate energized by reactions to President Trump. Once the polls close on Nov. 6, the time for analysis begins: Was the supposed “blue wave” successful? If yes, what are the implications? And if not, why? What can the results tell us about the governing challenges that will face America over the next two years?

On Thursday, Nov. 8, Governance Studies at Brookings will convene a panel of experts to address these questions and more. Panelists will review the results of the race, the factors that produced that outcome, and what this means for the state of American politics moving forward.

Speakers
Indira Lakshmanan
Executive Director, Pulitzer Center

William A. Galston
Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow, Governance Studies

Elaine Kamarck
Founding Director, Center for Effective Public Management
Senior Fellow, Governance Studies

Molly E. Reynolds
Fellow, Governance Studies

Vanessa Williams
Fellow, Governance Studies

The future of Taiwan, a flourishing liberal democracy and vibrant economy, is anything but secure. China, regarding it as a renegade province, has not renounced the use of military force to resolve the standoff. Taiwan must deter China’s aggression, taking steps to convince Chinese leaders that the costs of waging war on Taiwan will outweigh any possible benefits. In a new monograph, “A Question of Time: Enhancing Taiwan’s Conventional Deterrence Posture,” a team of researchers at George Mason University and the University of Waterloo examine a holistic strategy that Taiwan can use to enhance its conventional deterrence posture. Their conclusions are simple but radical: Taiwan must intensely prepare an asymmetric deterrence and challenge orthodoxies in its strategic thinking.

Speakers
Michael A. Hunzeker
Assistant Professor, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University.

Alexander Lanozska
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Balsillie School of International Affairs, University of Waterloo

Scott Katsnser
Professor, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park

Peace Picks: October 22 – 28

Posted in Tal Marom - October 21, 2018 - 0 Comment

On September 30, Macedonians voted in a referendum that would rename the country North Macedonia and remove the key obstacle to NATO and European Union (EU) membership. A boycott effort, outside influences, and ambivalent results – more than 90 percent voting yes, but below 40 percent turnout – raise questions about what comes next.

Will the government in Skopje muster the constitutional majority required to adopt the changes called for in the Prespa Agreement it negotiated with Greece? If not, will the country face snap parliamentary elections? How does this influence the calculus in Greece ahead of its own difficult parliamentary vote on the agreement? What impact does this have on the region and prospects for future NATO and EU enlargement. What roles are the United States, Europe and Russia playing in all this?

Speakers
The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen
Former Secretary General of NATO

Lilica Kitanovska
Chief, VOA Macedonian Service

Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council

Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by street protests against the government of President Daniel Ortega. Amidst harsh measures that criminalize social protest, the government arrested over two dozen opposition activists and leaders on Sunday, October 14th, subsequently releasing them after an international outcry.

According to the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, over 300 people have been killed, the majority of them anti-government demonstrators. A broad civic alliance consisting of the private sector, student, labor, and human rights groups, and intellectuals has demanded an end to the repression, the resignation of Ortega, and the holding of early elections. Attempts by the Catholic Church to mediate a dialogue have thus far failed.

Speakers
Cynthia J. Arnson
Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center

Douglas Castro
Professor & Researcher, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee

Lesther Alemán
Student of Communications, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee

Jeancarlo López
Student of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee

Dr. Shelley McConnell
Associate Professor of Government
St. Lawrence University

Israel sits at the center of a region in the throes of several major challenges, including the situations in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon as well as the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Ephraim Sneh, a long-time Israeli official and analyst of Israel’s foreign policy and the region at large. He will address these challenges as well as the state of U.S.-Israeli relations.

Speakers
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center

Aaron David Miller
Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center

General (Ret.) Ephraim Sneh
Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College Former Cabinet Member and Knesset Member

The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. But as the date approaches, important aspects of the withdrawal agreement as well as the future relationship between the U.K. and EU, particularly on trade, remain unresolved. Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Northern Ireland, where the re-imposition of a hard border with Ireland could threaten a hard-fought peace. Scotland, which voted resoundingly against Brexit, has raised questions about the future of devolved governance arrangements in the U.K., while the independence question remains alive. As Robert Bosch Senior Fellow Amanda Sloat writes in her recent report “Divided kingdom: How Brexit is remaking the UK’s constitutional order,” “Brexit will alter not one but two unions: the European Union and the United Kingdom.”

On October 23, 2018, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion on the Brexit endgame. It will examine what the decisions of the coming weeks could mean for the U.K., Ireland and Northern Ireland, Scotland, the European Union, and the United States. Sloat will be joined on the panel by Douglas Alexander, former U.K. Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; Lucinda Creighton, former Irish Minister for European Affairs; and Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States. Edward Luce of the Financial Times will moderate.

Speakers
Thomas Wright
Director, Center on the United States and Europe

Amanda Sloat
Robert Bosch Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe

Douglas Alexander
Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Chair, UNICEF UK

Lucinda Creighton
CEO, Vulcan Consulting

Sir Kim Darroch
British Ambassador to the United States, British Embassy

Edward Luce
Washington Columnist and Commentator, Financial Times

A panel discussion addressing the evolution, challenges, and future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Deployed in 2007 to counter the threat of al-Shabaab in Somalia, AMISOM remains the African Union’s most extensive and dangerous military intervention. Eleven years later, however, Somalia’s security challenges persist. As al-Shabaab continues to stage deadly attacks, questions linger regarding AMISOM’s transition, the commitment of its Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and the ability of the Somali National Army to stand on its own.

The event will feature Paul D. Williams, and his recent book, Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), 2007-2017, which offers a meticulous account of AMISOM since its deployment. Paul Williams will present insights from his book on the history and obstacles of AMISOM, and address how AMISOM’s funders and troop contributors envision its future. Amanda Dory, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, will then weigh in on potential avenues through which AMISOM could transition from Somalia.

Speakers
Paul D. Williams
Associate Director of the Security Policy Studies M.A. Program, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs

Amanda Dory
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Judd Devermont
Director, Africa Program

The war in Yemen is in its fourth year of unabating violence. What began as a power struggle within the government has now ensnared a population of nearly 30 million. With tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and many more dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the state is on the brink of collapse

Yemen now constitutes one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, in a large and impoverished country. Nonetheless, little discussion is devoted to how U.S. policy affects this disaster and what might be done to ease the dire conditions on the ground. The United States supports the war effort of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition in the war, fighting against Iranian-backed Houthis. The war will also have major implications for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its stability. Riyadh is America’s oldest ally in the region and Washington has important geopolitical interests at stake. In September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the U.S. allies were working to reduce civilian casualties, reportedly overriding staff recommendations on this.

Speakers
Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy

Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy

Dafna Rand
Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps

Fatima Abo Alasrar
Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation

Daniel L. Byman
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy

Hudson Institute will host a panel to assess U.S. policy in Syria. Panelists will consider how the Trump Administration’s new Syria strategy diverges from previous administrations’ and analyze how the new strategy intends to respond to outside influencers, particularly Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State, who continue to obstruct U.S. efforts within Syria.

Speakers
Mariam Jalabi
Representative, Syrian Opposition Coalition to the United Nations

Michael Doran
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Jonas Parello-Plesner
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Jomana Qaddour
Doctoral Candidate, Georgetown University Law Center
Former Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom

Join Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government’s Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she discusses France’s ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.

“Prevent to Protect,” the plan released by CIPDR in February 2018, offered 60 measures to refocus France’s policy of prevention around five key themes:

Shielding individuals from radicalization
Widening the detection and prevention network
Understanding and preparing for developments in radicalization
Training local stakeholders and assessing practices
Tailoring disengagement schemes

After Ms. Domenach’s remarks, Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will host a moderated armchair discussion comparing and contrasting the French and American perspectives on the issues of returning foreign fighters, counter-narrative efforts, and building community resilience.

Speakers
Muriel Domenach
Secretary General, Interministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization

Seth G. Jones
Harold Brown Chair
Director, Transnational Threats Project
Senior Adviser, International Security Program

Tags : Africa, Balkans, Brexit, European Union, Ireland, Israel, Israel/Palestine, Latin America, Somalia, Syria, Yemen

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Category: Tal Marom

Peace Picks: December 3 – 9

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