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Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war
I’m traveling to Kyiv this week to give presentations at the Kyiv School of Economics on preparing for post-war transition. I don’t think that is likely soon. But whenever it happens, I hope readiness for it will improve the prospects of success. I’ll also be trying to understand how Ukrainians are thinking about the war and prospects for peace. That is in preparation for the revision of my 2019 book. From War to Peace included a rudimentary discussion of Ukraine in the final chapter. For the 2027 edition, I hope to do much better. I’ve already written a chapter on the country’s long and tortured history. Now it’s time to understand its present and future.
I undertook this trip on my own initiative. Initially I thought I would try for a Fulbright. But Fulbright Ukraine was closed even before the post-January 20 evisceration of the US government. Now who knows when, or ever, Fulbright will reopen. Having liberated myself from classroom teaching, I am free to travel whenever. The doctoral students I supervise are mostly in touch via Zoom, which works better for individuals than classes. Best to just go, not wait on unknowns.
The video above is from a recent appearance of Economics Nobelist James Robinson at KSE. I doubt he is right about Ukraine lacking a national project. But that will be one of the questions I’ll be probing over the next few weeks when talking with Ukrainians.
No it’s not safe
Security is job #1. Kyiv isn’t suffering as much as some of the front line cities like Kharkiv and Kherson. But I gather there are daily/nightly barrages of drones and missiles, some of which get through.
The sky is big, as is the city. The situation is unlike Sarajevo, where you had to know where to walk so you weren’t visible to the snipers. It’s more like Tirana during its 1997 chaos. There gunfire was frequent but random (and much smaller caliber than in Kyiv). I suppose I’ll learn more when there about which areas and times are more dangerous than others. But it is best to assume nothing is safe, especially at night.
Preparations are complicated
I’ve talked with people who have been to Kyiv recently. But in a conflict zone you never know what is available and what isn’t. So I’ll try to take everything I might conceivably need. That isn’t easy if you are determined not to check bags. Best to keep it all in tow, but to assume that the bigger bag could get separated.
So pills, computer, mouse, wires, chargers, power supplies, the right plugs. Health and communications are vital. All have to fit in along with enough underwear to last at least half the stay in Kyiv. That way I won’t have to do laundry more than once. It’s cooler in Kyiv than in DC, which means a few warmer things that take up far too much room. I’ll wear the bulkier stuff.
I’ve got my powerpoint presentations in draft. Of course they’ll need changes once I get a better feel for the situation. Flexibility and adaptability are vital.
Talking with people at war
Wartime is hard and instructive. People in Kyiv have suffered through more than three years of bombardment. That’s on top of the seven years since Russia seized Crimea and invaded southeastern Ukraine. In my talks, I need to give them an opportunity to express themselves. They know better than I do what their post-war goals will be.
I’ll be doing that through what some of you will know as a “yellow sticky” exercise. I’ll ask participants to write their top priorities for after the war on yellow stickies. Then I’ll group them on a wall or whiteboard. Ukrainian priorities may differ from those I expect. So I’ll need to be mentally agile and ready to adjust my presentation appropriately.
The orange elephant in the room
The Ukrainians will wonder what’s going on in DC, which under Biden was Kyiv’s best friend. I’ll tell them what I understand:
- President Trump has aligned himself with President Putin.
- Nevertheless the American people want to send more support to Ukraine:

Robinson has it right: American politicians have taken an illiberal turn. But American popular sentiment is still pro-Ukraine. This contradiction won’t be satisfying to Ukrainians, who have suffered mightily and have good reason to be disappointed.
They may press me on why Trump supports Putin. I can imagine lots of reasons:
- personal financial gain,
- blackmail for past behavior,
- gratitude for electoral support,
- admiration for Putin’s autocratic success,
- genuine (but sorely mistaken) conviction that Russia can be weaned from alignment with China, Iran, and other US adversaries.
I suspect all have some validity. But there is precious little evidence which factor is primary and which are secondary. I think we’ll know some day. But it won’t be soon.
Post-war Ukraine
The main challenge for me is to help Ukrainians think about their country post-war. Too many countries fight wars only to be disappointed, even when they win. That has been the case for Ukraine in the many past wars conducted on its territory. This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine irreversibly on its way into the European Union. If I can contribute to that goal, my trip will be worthwhile.
It’s still a long road to change

I was pleased today to spend an hour and a half or so among the people at the Sylvan Theater behind the Washington Monument. The theme was “hands off.” That meant off human rights, women’s bodies, science, government workers, the economy, social security, medicare, medicaid, public lands, veterans. The list was long, the crowd was calm, and the chanting was loud. F-Elon was the sentiment. The only international issues I saw cited were tariffs and Ukraine, whose flag dotted the crowd. T
he participants were overwhelmingly white and Asian, with relatively few Blacks and Browns. I saw few teens. Most seemed in their twenties and up, including a lot of oldsters like me. I can only guess at numbers, but it seemed a lot more than the 20,000 that were expected.
Will it make a difference?
Over a thousand cities hosted comparable events today. The resistance to Trump is building. It’s been a long time since the public square has seen so many events of this sort. People are riled up. But also self-controlled. They don’t want a clash with the police. Virtually none were in the crowd today, but there were police cars nearby blocking traffic.
With any sort of normal American administration, this kind of public protest would have some impact. But this is not a normal administration. These are defiant, cruel people who are convinced of their own virtue and don’t listen to reasonable argument. The newly installed fences surrounding the White House today were appropriate. They keep ideas out and the President in. He is out of touch with those who don’t support him.
It will take a lot more to make a difference. As the Republicans control both Houses of Congress, some focus on their more vulnerable members could be useful. Maine Senator Collins and Alaska Senator Murkowski fake discomfort with Trump, but they don’t vote against him. Time to make them feel some heat.
A general strike is a possibility. I don’t think I remember one, even in the raucous civil rights/Vietnam war era. But with the economy headed into a screeching slowdown, it may make some sense. The tariffs have already made the stock market take a big bite out of retirement savings. I expect the screams about that to get louder.
The courts are crucial
For now though, the first line of opposition to the Trump Administration is in the courts. There Trump has been mostly losing. But even when he loses much damage has already been done, as with USAID. It is time for the temporary restraining orders to become permanent. And for government officials who defy the courts to be held in contempt. The Supreme Court will of course lean in Trump’s direction. They know what he wants them to do. And at least three if not four will do it no matter what.
The Republicans are threatening to impeach judges who issue broadly applicable orders. That is just grandstanding. They don’t have the 2/3rds majority in the Senate to get it done. But the threat will make some judges cautious and slow. What we need is bold and fast.
But only the November 2026 election promises change
But I don’t expect the opposition to Trump to win any big political fights this year. The President has a united and loyal party determined to do his capricious and ill-advised will. It is only the November 2026 election that promises real relief. It seems a long way off. A lot can happen in 18 months. Let’s hope at least some of it shows the American people what a colossal mistake they’ve made.
The agreement they didn’t sign
I wrote most of this piece before today’s meeting. The analysis of the agreement is I think correct, even if OBE.
The US-Ukraine minerals deal were supposed to sign today has one great virtue. There are no obvious no-no’s, like limits on its territorial extent or obligations Ukraine will find onerous. It really doesn’t constitute what President Trump said he wanted, which was payback for US assistance. It does make Ukraine devote half its future natural resource revenue to the joint fund the agreement promises. But that is no loss since the fund is devoted exclusively to investments in Ukraine.
But if there are no glaring errors, it still doesn’t constitute a “devastating blow” to Putin. The devil is in the details, which haven’t been negotiated yet. Does this agreement apply to all of Ukraine’s sovereign territory as of 2014, before the first Russian intervention? Can the US turn around and negotiate a similar agreement with Russia that applies to territory Moscow now controls? It just isn’t clear.
This is essentially an agreement to negotiate an agreement. No harm yet in that.
No security guarantees
The big omission from Ukraine’s perspective is the lack of security guarantees. The agreement says this:
The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.Â
That is a backhanded way of saying the US won’t give guarantees but will support Ukraine’s effort to get them. The implied source is Europe, including the United Kingdom and Turkey as well as the European Union. No one else is available. The Europeans should bear this burden. Russian guarantees aren’t worth the paper they are written on.
The problem is that the US saying that the US will not guarantee the guarantors. That is, if NATO European member states guarantee Ukraine’s security, NATO’s Article 5 will not apply to their forces. If the Europeans get into trouble, for example with the Russians, the US will not help them out.
That is important. The obligation to protect European forces in Bosnia led to the Dayton peace agreement. Dick Holbrooke convinced President Clinton it would be better to deploy Americans to end the war rather than conduct an evacuation of the Europeans.
Production isn’t going to be easy or quick
Ukraine is a big country and may have lots of resources of interest to the US.

Here are the more “critical” deposits, rare earths and others (the pinkish area in the southeast is Russian-occupied territory):

But none of this is going to be easy or quick to exploit. Yesterday’s NPR interview on the subject suggested it will 18 years from the required up-to-date mapping to mineral production from a mine:
That would be 18 years in peacetime, or in a peaceful area of the country. I’m not holding my breath.
So why did it blow up?
Signing this agreement, which is no more than an agreement to negotiate, would have been much better than a pissing match. But Vance and Trump seem to me determined to sandbag Zelensky, who wasn’t humble enough for their tastes:
Zelensky should not have taken the bait. Who knows what comes next!
Part II: what can be done?
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, continues his analysis of the problems from last week with this proposal for solutions:
Donald Trump did not put his hand on the Bible during the swearing-in. He doesn’t feel constrained to protect the United States against all enemies domestic and foreign.
What can be done?
Be part of the Resistance:
- Bury your Congressmen and Senators with emails and letters!
- Organize and protest!
- Support politicians who understand that our democracy and Constitution are under threat!
- Join a political party that supports and follows the principles outlined in the Declaration of Independence and Constitution!
- Donate time and money!
- Vote!
- Elect Democrats, Independents and Republicans in 2026 who oppose Trumpism and MAGA!
- Support the courts to fight the battle against blatant violations of civil and legal rights!
- Educate and devote yourselves to the best of our government’s ideals!
Absent voters handed Trump his office, but we still have vestiges of three equal branches of government. J. D. Vance wants to ignore the principle of judicial review, established in Marbury vs Madison in the 18th century. But he hasn’t won that battle yet. Ours is still a government that rules by law, not by the whims of one man. We got rid of King George III. We do not need King Donald.
Ukraine
On the international front, Trump is creating chaos with Allies and aligning the US with Russia. There is a lot to be done:
- Support European efforts in favor of Ukrainian sovereignty and against Russian aggression!
- Insist that Europe and Ukraine be part of any peace negotiations!
- Do not abandon a free nation, with a democratically, popular leader like Zelensky, under attack!
- Ukraine’s defense is ours in the long run!
At home
Domestically, we need to create a stronger, more representative, and transparent democracy. It should not divide Americans but unite them, e pluribus unum. We need a Government of National Reconciliation as well as
- A Council of Sages consisting of former Presidents/VPs/advocates for the Constitution and democracy to speak directly to the American public on a regular basis;
- Term limits of 12 years for all Congress persons, Senators and judges;
- An end to Citizens United and return to one-person/one-vote, instead of allowing oligarchs to buy elections;
- Public financing of elections with equal funding for Independents, Democrats and Republican candidates that pass a certain threshold of voter support;
- Re-districting panels to ensure that there is competition in state and local elections;
- Voter registration/certification/verification panels;
- Strict laws prohibiting foreign interference (political or financial) in US elections ;
- Greater accountability and transparency of public spending;
- Admission of Puerto Rico and DC as states;
- Consultative counsels to meet monthly with local officials to discuss concerns and provide recommendations on how to improve local governance.
None to speak for me
Remember what German pastor Martin Niemöller said regarding the silence of the German public following the Nazi rise to power?
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
How to solve the Dayton puzzle
Bosnian Fulbrighter Cancar will present tomorrow 11-12:30 at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Please register and join us!

Four more years is four too many
It’s a sad day for America. Not only has Donald Trump re-entered the White House. His wealthy buddies are no longer hiding their allegiances. Elon Musk is not only supporting Alternative für Deutschland. He is copying a salute most Germans still remember with shame.
Off to the expected scams
Trump’s first moves are against immigrants and in favor of the fossil fuel industry. Ignoring the 14th amendment, he is trying to deprive people born in the US of citizenship it provides. He has also blocked asylum seekers. Raids that will round up legal as well as illegal immigrants are imminent. Trump wants to get rid of Biden’s efforts to slow global warming and accelerate oil, gas, and coal production. He is withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, which allows Washington to define its own measures to prevent climate change. He has also ordered withdrawal from the World Health Organization.
Trump is also promising Tik Tok relief from a law that provides for no possibility of relief from the president. He is pardoning 1500 criminals, most of whom attacked the Capitol violently on January 6, 2021. The Trump family has launched a crypto “memecoin” that has already put billions in his pockets. It will implode, like other such frauds, plundering late-comer investors. Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1 will cause a major trade war. That will jack up inflation and impoverish many people in the Western Hemisphere.
Don’t lose sight of the baseline
Biden is leaving office with an extraordinary record of achievement. Federal and state prosecutors, including in deep red states, have found no reason to prosecute any Biden Administration political appointees. None have resigned in scandal. Biden pardoned his family not because they had done something wrong but because he rightfully feared Trumped-up charges against them. Trump’s nominee for FBI Director has promised such revenge. Note he did not pardon himself.
The economic stats at the end of 2024 are these:
- Unemployment 4.1% (12/24)
- GDP growth 3.0% (IV 24)
- Inflation 2.9% (2024)
- Budget deficit $2T (2024)
- Stock market (DJ) 43k, more or less
What are the odds that Trump will beat all these benchmarks? Close to zero. Three of them? Not much higher. We’ll have to wait and see.
Here are just a few other Biden claims:
—Strongest economy in the world —Nearly 16 million new jobs, a record —Wages up —Inflation coming down —Racial wealth gap lowest in 20 years —Historic infrastructure investments —Lower prescription drug costs —Record health insurance coverage —Most significant climate law ever —First major gun safety law in 30 years —First Black woman on Supreme Court —Help for 1 million veterans exposed to toxins —Violent crime rate at 50-year low —Border crossings lower than when Trump left office
Foreign policy
I fault Biden for his sloppy handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal and his failure to rein in Israel in Gaza. That undermined his claim that America stands up for democracy. He responded reasonably well and quickly to the fall of Assad in Syria. With Iran, Biden failed to revive the nuclear agreement. That has left a big challenge for Trump. But if Biden had succeeded, Trump would have withdrawn again.
Biden was great reunifying and rallying NATO to support for Ukraine. Fearful of provoking war between the US and Russia, however, Biden was too hesitant in providing long-range weapons. I hope Trump will give Kyiv all it needs to win. In the Balkans, Biden’s knowledgeable minions were miserably unsuccessful.
Biden was good on China, Taiwan, India, and Asia in general. But he couldn’t refocus more attention there due to events in the Middle East. We’ll have to see if Trump does better.
Next four years
Half the country did not think this was enough. They disliked Kamala Harris, an articulate, experienced, competent, Black and Indian woman. She had been a successful prosecutor and a senator. They thought they would do better with a convicted felon, womanizer, racist, and flim-flam man. I’ll be interested to hear what they have to say after four more years of his bombast.
PS: Let me be clear: four more yours is four too many. But the last thing I would want is to see the Vice President in the Oval Office. He is arguably worse.