Category: Uncategorized
Four more years is four too many
It’s a sad day for America. Not only has Donald Trump re-entered the White House. His wealthy buddies are no longer hiding their allegiances. Elon Musk is not only supporting Alternative für Deutschland. He is copying a salute most Germans still remember with shame.
Off to the expected scams
Trump’s first moves are against immigrants and in favor of the fossil fuel industry. Ignoring the 14th amendment, he is trying to deprive people born in the US of citizenship it provides. He has also blocked asylum seekers. Raids that will round up legal as well as illegal immigrants are imminent. Trump wants to get rid of Biden’s efforts to slow global warming and accelerate oil, gas, and coal production. He is withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, which allows Washington to define its own measures to prevent climate change. He has also ordered withdrawal from the World Health Organization.
Trump is also promising Tik Tok relief from a law that provides for no possibility of relief from the president. He is pardoning 1500 criminals, most of whom attacked the Capitol violently on January 6, 2021. The Trump family has launched a crypto “memecoin” that has already put billions in his pockets. It will implode, like other such frauds, plundering late-comer investors. Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1 will cause a major trade war. That will jack up inflation and impoverish many people in the Western Hemisphere.
Don’t lose sight of the baseline
Biden is leaving office with an extraordinary record of achievement. Federal and state prosecutors, including in deep red states, have found no reason to prosecute any Biden Administration political appointees. None have resigned in scandal. Biden pardoned his family not because they had done something wrong but because he rightfully feared Trumped-up charges against them. Trump’s nominee for FBI Director has promised such revenge. Note he did not pardon himself.
The economic stats at the end of 2024 are these:
- Unemployment 4.1% (12/24)
- GDP growth 3.0% (IV 24)
- Inflation 2.9% (2024)
- Budget deficit $2T (2024)
- Stock market (DJ) 43k, more or less
What are the odds that Trump will beat all these benchmarks? Close to zero. Three of them? Not much higher. We’ll have to wait and see.
Here are just a few other Biden claims:
—Strongest economy in the world —Nearly 16 million new jobs, a record —Wages up —Inflation coming down —Racial wealth gap lowest in 20 years —Historic infrastructure investments —Lower prescription drug costs —Record health insurance coverage —Most significant climate law ever —First major gun safety law in 30 years —First Black woman on Supreme Court —Help for 1 million veterans exposed to toxins —Violent crime rate at 50-year low —Border crossings lower than when Trump left office
Foreign policy
I fault Biden for his sloppy handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal and his failure to rein in Israel in Gaza. That undermined his claim that America stands up for democracy. He responded reasonably well and quickly to the fall of Assad in Syria. With Iran, Biden failed to revive the nuclear agreement. That has left a big challenge for Trump. But if Biden had succeeded, Trump would have withdrawn again.
Biden was great reunifying and rallying NATO to support for Ukraine. Fearful of provoking war between the US and Russia, however, Biden was too hesitant in providing long-range weapons. I hope Trump will give Kyiv all it needs to win. In the Balkans, Biden’s knowledgeable minions were miserably unsuccessful.
Biden was good on China, Taiwan, India, and Asia in general. But he couldn’t refocus more attention there due to events in the Middle East. We’ll have to see if Trump does better.
Next four years
Half the country did not think this was enough. They disliked Kamala Harris, an articulate, experienced, competent, Black and Indian woman. She had been a successful prosecutor and a senator. They thought they would do better with a convicted felon, womanizer, racist, and flim-flam man. I’ll be interested to hear what they have to say after four more years of his bombast.
PS: Let me be clear: four more yours is four too many. But the last thing I would want is to see the Vice President in the Oval Office. He is arguably worse.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
What could go wrong in 2025
The next year promises to be a challenging one, both at home and abroad. I’ll leave the prognosticating inside the US to others. Abroad I expect the new Trump Administration to disappoint in many ways.
Ukraine
Trumpians have already proposed to Russian President Putin an end to the Ukraine war along current confrontation lines. Ukraine would stay outside NATO for 20 years. The Europeans would monitor the ceasefire. But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has labeled this generous armistice offer a non-starter. The Russians want all of Ukraine, not a piece of it. They want President Zelensky out and their own puppet in. And they want a permanent bar on NATO membership for Ukraine.
It was of course a mistake for Trump to float a peace proposal even before taking power. That is by definition a moment of weakness. But Trump has never shown strength in dealing with Putin. His failure to support the Ukrainians will allow Russia to continue to gain territory. Unless Moscow suffers an economic or political collapse, the war will continue with Ukraine disadvantaged. Biden neglected to give Ukraine everything it wanted. Trump will refuse to give it everything it needs.
Middle East
That will have repercussions in other areas. Russia will retain its bases in Syria. It will use them to protect the Alawite-plurality west from alleged Damascus abuses. That will de facto partition Syria, just as Russian policy has de facto partitioned Ukraine. Trump will hesitate to lift sanctions on Syria, limiting the peace dividend to Syrians. He will withdraw the American troops, weakening the Kurds. More extreme armed groups in Syria will strengthen. Pro-democracy forces will weaken.
Trump will support the expanded Israeli role in the region. This will include security control not only over the Gaza and the West Bank, but also Lebanon south of the Litani River, the Golan Heights, Jordan, and Sinai. Israel will involve the US in an attack on Iranian nuclear sites that will succeed in setting back the program. But it will also give Tehran reason to redouble its nuclear efforts.
The Houthis will continue their attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. Intensified US and Israeli bombardment will fail to dislodge them from Sanaa.
Balkans
Russia’s success in Ukraine and Syria as well as Israel’s in neighboring countries will encourage irredentist ambitions in the Balkans. Serbia will continue to look for a pretext to move into northern Kosovo, claiming Serbs there are mistreated. If Belgrade invades, NATO troops would fail to repel the Serbian army. Albania would then propose a referendum on union with Kosovo. The net result would be ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Kosovo south of the Ibar and Albanians from southern Serbia. Republika Srpska would secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina, precipitating ethnic cleansing and split of the state into three parts.
China and Taiwan
Under the influence of Elon Musk, Trump will allow Bytedance to continue to operate TikTok in the US.
But he will go through with heightened tariffs on imports from China, which will retaliate with tariffs on US goods. The resulting trade war will send the world economy into a tailspin.
Unwilling to fulfill American alliance commitments, Trump will encourage South Korea and Taiwan to get their own nuclear weapons. That will cause Beijing and Pyongyang to accelerate their own nuclear buildup, worsening the security situation in the Pacific.
What I missed
Trump will ignore the several wars in Africa. He will end US efforts to deal with climate change. He will continue to blabber about taking over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal but those ambitions are smokescreens. Trump’s real ambition is to make everything about him. He has no fear of failure because he is confident he can spin whatever happens as success. That is what he is really good at. At least half of America believes it.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
More remains to be done, but credit is due
Opposition and Turkish forces now control Syria’s northwest, northeast, north, south and the main cities of its north/south axis. But most of the west–the provinces of Latakia and Tartus–are still not fully in opposition control. Ditto much of the center.
The Alawites
The Alawite sect to which Bashar al Assad belonged constituted only about 10% of Syria’s population before the civil war. But Alawites are a plurality in the west. They live more in the countryside than in the main cities. The leader of the opposition, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), has named a military commander for the west. He met with Alawite notables in Latakia Tuesday. @GregoryPWaters cites an Alawite professor present, who reports:
The broad, summarized headlines that we all felt were true:
– No to sectarianism absolutely
– No to violating the property of individuals and institutions
– No to division
– No going back, everyone was harmed by the previous regime in one way or another
That is as friendly a message from HTS as possible. It is not entirely surprising. HTS has been reaching out to Syria’s minorities to preserve Syria’s unity. The Alawites of Latakia and Tartus suffered a great under their co-religionist Assad. They lost a lot of young people in the war. They had to toe the line or risk the full weight of his repression. Many Sunnis and others resented their access to privilege and power.
The trick now is to somehow hold individuals who committed abuses accountable while not mistreatinthe rest. Many of Assad’s henchmen, Sunni as well as Alawite, will have fled to Latakia and Tartus. Ferreting them out and giving them fair trials will not be easy.
The Russians
Besides the Alawites, the Russians are a problem in the west. They operate the Syrian Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia and lease a naval base farther south in Tartus. The air base has since 2015 launched thousands of sorties against opposition forces and civilians. The naval base is Russia’s only naval facility in the Mediterranean. Turkey has closed the Bosporus to military traffic due to the war in Ukraine. So the Tartus base is particularly important to the Russians. The air base is not, as its role has been overtaken by events.
Still, Moscow is insisting on keeping both. Russia will be arguing that the Syrians shouldn’t rely too heavily on Turkey. HTS has not signaled that it wants them out. Putin will be lucky to retain the naval facility.
The Islamic State
Much of the white area on the above map is sparsely populated. But it hosts Islamic State cells. HTS will now have to shoulder the burden of eliminating them. It should be willing to do so, as the Islamic State is a rival, not an ally. But it isn’t easy. The Americans could be helpful from the air and might be willing. Someone should ask, or offer. Once HTS gets that done, the Americans will not want to stay in Syria. And future President Trump won’t want them to.
A remarkable job
HTS-led forces have done a remarkable job in a short time. The risks of fragmentation are still there, but lower than a week ago. Abu Mohammed al Jolani has sent the right political signals. There is still more to be done, but credit is due.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
He talks the talk, will he walk the walk?
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, is on a roll. His forces are leading a breakout from Idlib province that has now taken two major cities, Aleppo and Hama. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces of Bashar al Assad have retreated from both. HTS and its allies are now on the outskirts of Homs. Kurdish forces have evicted the SAA from Deir ez-Zur and environs. Other opposition forces are in the process of liberating Daraa and Suwayda south of Damascus. Once Homs falls, Damascus and the western provinces of Latakia and Tartous will be at risk. Assad is unlikely to stick around to see how they fare.
That’s the good news
Aaron Zelin, a leading expert on HTS, writes of al-Jolani’s governance in northwest Syria:
There’s nothing liberal about the polity he’s built in Idlib. They may have built institutions, but it’s still authoritarian. And he’s literally a leader above the law because technically he has no official position in the Salvation Government.
HTS is a descendant of the Islamic State of Iraq a as well as Al Qaeda. But Al-Jolani has tried for years to project a more moderate image internationally. And in recent days he has voiced and shown respect for Syria’s enormous diversity, which includes Christians of various sorts, Kurds, Shiites, Alawites and others. But there is no guarantee that he will continue in that vein once Assad is gone. Nor is political pluralism something he has practiced while governing in Idlib. Citizens there are not entirely free to criticize.
Uncertainty
Al-Jolani’s preferences are not the only uncertainty looming over Syria. Its economy is devastated. Its social fabric is in tatters. The Assad regime has been depending on income from drug trafficking. Russia and Iran (as well as its Lebanese Hezbollah allies and Shiite proxies) have been vital to the regime’s survival. Ukraine has weakened the former and Israel has battered the other. Even if they wanted to, they might not be capable of propping up Assad. Moscow has removed its warships from their base in Syria. Iran is evacuating its people.
Turkiye has been vital to HTS success. But Ankara’s primary interest in Syria is not liberating it from Assad. The Turks want the more than two million refugees it hosts to return south and Kurdish forces to keep away from its border. Turkiye may not support HTS’s desire to go all the way to Damascus.
The Americans and Gulfies are looking on in amazement. It is not clear whether they will support an HTS-led government, but there may be no better option. They don’t want Syria to break up. HTS might be the only thing capable of holding it together.
Israel will not welcome a jihadist state on its northern border. It might try to prop up Assad or an unworthy successor.
It could still go bad
HTS has had a relatively easy time of it. SAA resistance could stiffen. Infighting among rebel groups could lead to splits. The Kurds in particular will resent the Turkish proxies, who are chasing Kurdish forces and some civilians east of the Euphrates.
The Islamic State could take advantage of the chaos in Syria to re-emerge from its hiding places in the central desert.
HTS or other “opposition” atrocities against civilians could turn the population and the internationals against the liberators. After winning, HTS could return to its extremist roots. Or it could decide to take up the Palestinian cause and align with Hamas, turning off aid from the US and EU. Even without that, the internationals might fail to provide the assistance a liberated Syria will require.
Celebrate now, but prepare for later
Syrians are of course correct to celebrate now. HTS is liberating people who have been unjustly imprisoned for a decade and more. But they should also keep a keen eye on their liberators. Trading one autocrat for another, even a less pernicious one, would not be a worthy outcome.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Who should the US back in Syria?
The rapid advance in the past week of Syrian opposition forces raises difficult questions for the United States. The leadership of those forces lies with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist group. The US already cooperates with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which include Syrian Kurds aligned with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). It is also a designated terrorist group that operates inside Turkey. Turkey backs opposition forces in Syria generally termed the Syrian National Army (SNA), which control Afrin under the command of the Turkish Army.
Too many friends
The US cooperates with the SDF because it helps fight against the Islamic State (IS), still another designated terrorist group. HTS has also been effective against IS as well as Al Qaeda in the territory it has controlled for several years in northwestern Syria.
HTS’ leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has been trying for years to soften his group’s jihadist rhetoric. He has sent messages in recent days to Syrian Christians, Kurds, and Alawites suggesting that they will not be mistreated in HTS-controlled territory. He has also indicated HTS will step back from governance, which it will delegate to an interim authority with broad representation. Its Syrian Salvation Government in Idlib province has administered the territory HTS controls there for several years.
Turkiye, a NATO ally, is unhappy that the Americans cooperate with the Kurdish-led SDF. Washington has tried to soften Ankara’s attitude toward the Syrian Kurds for years, to no avail. Turkiye wants the SDF pushed east of the Euphrates River and at least 30 kilometers from the Turkish border. Hundreds of thousands of Kurds are said to be on the move.
Israel, another de facto US ally, won’t be happy to see jihadists conquering Syria. The damage Israel has wreaked on President Assad’s Syrian Arab Army, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iranian forces is one of the reasons HTS has been able to advance, but Netanyahu is not going to be greeting al-Julani with open arms. He, and perhaps Biden, had hopes that Assad would cut, or at least diminish, his ties to Iran.
So how should the US lean in this complicated situation? With the Turks against the SDF? That isn’t possible without abandoning the fight against IS. With HTS against Assad? That would risk helping a group the Israelis fear may have less benign intentions than its current behavior suggests. With Assad against HTS? That could wreck prospects for a transition in Syria that the US has backed for more than a decade. It would also preserve an ally of Russia and Iran who has brutalized his own population.
Creating new options
If the current options don’t look good, perhaps the right approach is to create new ones. America doesn’t have enough troops in Syria (maybe 1500, depending on how you count) to command the situation. But Washington could lean one way or another to open up better options. This could be better than the current policy paralysis, which has failed to take advantage of a situation that could spell defeat for Russia and Iran.
The Turkish-backed forces in Syria want to chase the Kurds from Manbij, on the western side of the Euphrates. That is a fight that could split the opposition to Assad and give him a new lease on power. The US should encourage the Kurds to withdraw east of the Euphrates and duck a fight they are not likely to win.
The Syrian Arab Army (Assad’s army) will want to withdraw its forces from central Syria to meet these threats. There are still IS remnants in central Syria. The US should press SDF, after withdrawal form Manbij, to fill this vacuum and continue its fight against IS.
HTS and its allies today took Hama, south of Aleppo. Both Homs and the Mediterranean provinces of Tartous and Latakia, where many Alawites live, are now at risk. Risings against Assad could facilitate HTS takeovers. Damascus could be next.
The US could communicate to HTS that Washington would be willing to see creation of an interim government not only in Aleppo but also at the national level. Washington could then work with that government, provided it behaves in a civilized way, rather than HTS directly, in planning for the future of Syria.
What does the US gain?
Success of the rebellion against Assad would be a serious defeat for Russia and Iran, which have backed Assad through more than 13 years of civil war. It would be foolish to imagine the result will be Western-style democracy. But even an outcome (without all the interim steps please!) like Iraq’s current non-autocratic mishmash would be better than the homicidal regime that has governed Syria since the rebellion started in 2011.
PS: And Assad comes down:
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
To tweet or not, that is the question
I am now beginning to post on Bluesky, the latest competitor of X/Twitter. I have profiles on Threads and Post, but I haven’t used them. Those two competitors never took off.
I don’t know if Bluesky will either. But the election results stimulated an exodus of interesting people from Twitter. They are mostly Democrats and never-Trump Republicans. I haven’t run into any Trumpkins there.
Why leave Twitter?
The arguments for leaving Twitter are strong. Its owner and operator is a billionaire Trump enthusiast and financier. The platform has been favoring pro-Trump views and slighting anti-Trump posts. Its revenue and usage is down sharply since he sliced staff, raised fees, and all but eliminated moderation,. Except for his political opponents of course. The number of American users is down. Trolling is up. For many people, the atmosphere has become toxic.
Bluesky is providing a far more friendly environment. Its algorithm is not slighting Democrats or promoting conflict. Discussion there can be vigorous, but not not nearly as poisonous as on Twitter. It is free and does not intend to allow advertising.
Why not leave Twitter?
That said, I am not planning to leave Twitter soon. There are several reasons.
First of course is the accumulation of more than 7000 followers for @DanielSerwer. That is an important entry point for www.peacefare.net. It will be a long time before I can gain even a fraction of that on Bluesky.
Second, many of my followers are not Americans. Few non-Americans have joined Bluesky, which is the product of the polarized political environment in the United States. It has more than 20 million users, which is extraordinary. But still a good deal less than Twitter/X’s 60 million Americans. Twitter/X has more than 350 million non-American users. I’ll gladly welcome non-Americans to Bluesky. But I suppose if they want to understand our politics, Twitter/X is more representative.
Third, I regret the loss of a common space, even one tainted with toxicity. Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, argues on Twitter/X that it is better to stay to debate issues than self-isolate in a friendlier environment. Trolls deserve a chance to show they can be sensible. And to tell the truth, they haven’t much plagued me. I’ve blocked very few people all these years (I joined Twitter in 2010).
Yes, Tweet, but Bluesky as well.
So on balance I prefer to do both Twitter/X and Bluesky, at least for now. Twitter in its heyday was an extraordinary way to talk with the world. I wish it had remained that way. Or that some public-spirited billionaire would put Musk out of his misery and buy it. S/he could then fix the algorithm and moderate the content.
But that isn’t happening. So I’ll migrate to Bluesky gradually, keeping my presence and activity on Twitter/X as well. It’s a burden, but not an unbearable one.
RSS - Posts
