Category: Uncategorized
A necessary and unavoidable but constructive failure
The UN’s Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP 26) ended yesterday with a lengthy, consensus declaration. The Glasgow Climate Pact includes something for just about everyone and not enough for anyone. That’s what you expect from a consensus document purporting to represent the views of 197 countries that are collectively fouling the global commons. Nor is it surprising that the current commitments of the parties, despite significant strengthening before and during the conference, will not achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade.
The implications are dire. At higher temperatures than that goal, global warming will raise sea levels enough to drown some island countries and deprive many others of their current coastlines, generate even more dramatic storms and forest fires than we are already seeing, shift agricultural patterns in ways that hinder growing enough to meet global demand, and make parts of the planet even more uninhabitable than they already are. The costs will be astronomical. The human implications tragic. There is nothing to celebrate about COP 26 if you are looking only at the physical implications of what was decided in Glasgow, even if you welcome the substantial agreements reached on methane and deforestation.
The conference was however a success in another sense: without it, things would have been worse. Glasgow upped the ante on climate change. No government on earth can now ignore it entirely. Even laggards like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India have been announcing new goals and counter measures. President Biden has put climate change high on his agenda, reversing President Trump’s foolish and counterproductive effort to ignore it. Island nations whose physical existence is threatened had their voices magnified. Less developed countries had their needs acknowledged, if not yet fully funded. None of this is enough, but much of it would not have happened without Glasgow.
This is typical of large international conferences. The UN is doing what it can and should. Such conferences serve to mobilize public opinion and shift attitudes, even if they fail to solve the problems they aim to solve. The key now is to maintain the momentum and raise the political pressure. The parties have agreed to meet again next year in Egypt, where no doubt the appeals for action and money will be heightened. Expanding economies in what we can hope will be the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely make the prospects for meeting the goal of 1.5 degrees centigrade even dimmer than they are today. Don’t expect good news, but next year’s conference will again be a necessary, unavoidable but constructive failure.
That’s how the international system works. Get used to it. This is going to go on for decades.
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Stevenson’s army, September 27
I’ve been traveling and negligent about publishing Charlie’s daily take, but I’ll try to do better this week:
– Erdogan defends military purchases from Russia.
– Chinese unsettled by hostage release deal.
-US Supreme Court sees sharp drop in favorability.
– WSJ says US failed to build sustainable economy in Afghanistan.
– WaPo explains failure of Afghan security forces.
– Guardian profiles Jake Sullivan.
And while this is not a prediction, Steven Dennis of Bloomberg describes the way legislative fights often work out:
“How deals sometimes come together in Congress
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO YES TO BUDGET MODS IMMEDIATELY DIS NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO YES TO FRAMEWORK NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO YES”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 12
– Stanford’s Amy Zegart says CIA post-9/11 has been too involved in military activities, weakening its core mission of avoiding strategic surprise.
– WaPo notes the new bipartisan duo working to reform US war powers laws
– Pentagon has regained control of 6% of IP addresses secretly given to Florida company.
– LA Times says US has removed Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia.
– FBI released highly redacted report on Saudi involvement in 9/11 attacks. Just look at the redactions!
– Oversight: foreign policy committees hear from SecState Blinken on Mon & Tues in open sessions. SASC hears from Brown & Milley behind closed doors. Check out schedules.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Patriots wear masks and get vaccinated, no compromise
Today is 9/11, but today is also a day on which more than 1500 Americans will die of COVID-19. That is half of the number dying every day as died in the 9/11 attacks twenty years ago. The total confirmed deaths due to the corona virus now number well over 600,000. That is close to 1000 times the number of American service members killed in Afghanistan and Iraq over the past twenty years. Or, if you prefer, about 500 times the number of troops and contractors killed during two decades of the war on terror and two hundred times the number killed on 9/11.
The differences are obvious: COVID-19 has killed people over a year and half, not in a single day, and all over the country, not in one, two, or three places. It has killed mostly older people with pre-existing conditions and mostly brown and black people. But I still find it hard to understand how (mostly white) people who regard themselves as patriots can resist doing what each of them needs to do to prevent fellow-Americans from dying:
These are not difficult things to do. They do not infringe on personal freedom. Virtually every American gets at least half a dozen required vaccines while growing up. Masking to prevent yourself from infecting others is a social obligation. It should be a no-brainer.
It isn’t. Why not? Because you identify with a party and politicians who have decided to oppose vaccines and masking no matter the consequences. Maybe you also think the US government had a hand in attacking the twin towers. Likely you thought Barack Obama was not born in the US. Even more likely, you think Biden won the 2020 election due to fraud. You are prepared to personally interfere with women’s freedom to choose whether she wants to have a baby (as encouraged by a recent Texas law), but you are not willing to have the government, which is responsible for the public welfare, or your employer, who is required to provide a safe workplace, insist that you take simple precautions not to infect others.
9/11 was a moment of extraordinary unity among Americans. We reacted in shock and horror, applauded the first responders, mourned the dead, and sought punishment for those who planned and ordered the attacks. The results 20 years later are not just disappointing but counter-productive: there are now more jihadists in more countries than ever before. It is hard to justify the sacrifice not just of Americans but also the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, Afghans, and others who have died in the war on terror.
Now we find ourselves sharply divided, between those willing to do what little needs to be done for the common good and those who are unwilling. That division doesn’t sound like a winning formula either, but we’ll have to live with it. The unwilling are not patriots. They have betrayed their fellow citizens and are willing to see many more die. President Biden is right to require them to protect others or lose their livelihoods. Patriots wear masks and get vaccinated. There should be no compromise.
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Stevenson’s army, September 7
– WaPo has good explainer on Guinea coup.
– WSJ says China’s industrial policy is getting more effective.
– Germany blames Russia for election interference.
– Politico says steel tariffs pose dilemma for Biden.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stephenson’s army, September 5 and 6
September 5:
WSJ reports the growth of the counterterrorism indstrical complex since 9/11 attacks.
WaPo highlights Gen. McChrystal as an example of the riches after command.
A former diplomat says all NEOs are chaotic.
WSJ has its own Afghan withdrawal report, noting that civilians questioned the early closing of Bagram.
September 6:
– Max Hastings on lessons unlearned.
– On Lawfare, myths about NATO & Afghanistan.
-On FP, Korea was a worse forever war.
– NYT describes drone strike that killed several civilians.
– WaPo says Pakistan faces new challenges.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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