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Stevenson’s army, September 1
News:
– Somebody leaked to Reuters the transcript of the last Biden-Ghani phone call.
-NYT details how CIA evacuated its last base.
– Defense One says Biden will offer $60 million to Ukraine in today’s meeting with Zelensky.
-NBC says Taliban did block an attack on US forces.
Opinion: Naval war college prof says both Russia and China are challenging Law of the Sea
In FP, analysts say CIA is better than DOD at building foreign armies.
– Dan Drezner assesses Biden’s foreign policy team.
– WaPo says GOP is divided on foreign policy.
– NYT conservative Ross Douthat hits Biden’s critics.
– Politico says Trump acolytes will remake the Senate.
Charlie doubts he’ll have time to read the papers before heading to 0800 class on Thursday, so here are some items tonight:
– Clip & save: WOTR has report on where defense dollars get spent. This is what matters to members of Congress, and often why they seek to be on the defense committees.
– Political deal in Venezuela.
-Longtime journalist Walter Pincus sees a new US strategy emerging. Here’s link to the earlier Biden policy paper.
–US & China need a better hotline.
– Lawfare assesses Taliban military.
– Milley says US could work with Taliban.
– International discussions on Kabul airport.
– Political games: WaPo sees a lot of GOP disinformation. NYT sees GOP switching positions on the war.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 28 and 29
I missed yesterday, so two today:
August 29
– WaPo says US will withdraw all embassy people from Kabul.
– WSJ says US used non-explosive Hellfire to kill ISIS-K planners.
– WaPo has its tick-tock on the final days of the Ghani government.
– NYT says US nears revision of drone rules, with more centralized vetting of strikes.
– Vanity Fair reports on the reduced media presence in Kabul.
August 28
– Retaliatory strike on ISIS-K.
– Atlantic writers assess the Taliban and ISIS-K.
– Retired ambassador on how State should prepare for interventions.
– Washingtonian on what Bezos wants to do with the Post
CRS has some new products on Afghanistan.
- U.S. Military Withdrawal and Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan: Frequently Asked Questions, updated August 27, 2021
- Use of Militia, National Guard, or Federal Armed Forces within the District of Columbia Prior to 2020, August 25, 2021
- Afghan Aerial Evacuation in Context, CRS Insight, August 24, 2021
- The Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces: Implications for U.S. Security Assistance and Cooperation, CRS Insight, August 23, 2021
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Let the people go, but save those who remain too
The continuing chaos both outside and inside Kabul airport raises difficult questions. Let’s assume all the expats (people without Afghanistan citizenship) get evacuated in the next few days. The foreign powers–not only the US but Germany, UK, France, South Korea, Japan and others–will do their best to find and transport their citizens. The far bigger problem–numerically and morally–is the number of Afghans and Afghan dual citizens, many of whom will be left behind.
While President Ghani’s government lacked popular support, democratization and modernization in Afghanistan had lots, especially in urban areas. The results were in plain sight: girls and women getting educated and holding jobs, health standards and life expectancy improved, literacy increased, free media flourished, and civil society boomed. The educated middle class that made these improvements possible, the “NATO generation,” is now at risk. We are not talking tens of thousands here, or even hundreds of thousands, but millions.
The Taliban are now saying they will not permit Afghan citizens to leave. That presumably also includes dual citizens, though I won’t be surprised if many of them do get out. Still, an enormous number of relatively competent, freedom-seeking Afghans will remain at the mercy of young fighting men in need of jobs, ready to kill those they perceive as opponents, and disdainful of women’s rights. The Taliban’s ability to respond to their own supporters’ expectations will be very limited: foreign aid is abruptly ending and the country’s foreign currency reserves are frozen.
A bloodbath, or a civil war, is certainly possible. Not surprisingly, resistance forces are already gathering in the Panjshir valley, where the strongest opposition to the Taliban emerged the last time around. Pakistan, slow to realize the implications for its own national security of having a jihadist neighbor to its west and north, is trying to convince the Taliban to form an “inclusive” government, which would presumably rule out export of extremism. Iran, delighted with the humiliation of the Americans but concerned about a jihadist neighbor to its east, will press for the same. Russia may do likewise, as it fears export of jihadism to the stans to its south. China ditto, as it fears the spread of jihadism across Xinjiang’s short border with Afghanistan and wants a reliable and stable Afghanistan to form part of its Belt and Road.
The Americans are going to have some difficult choices to make. There is no immediate hope of ousting the Taliban. Humanitarian assistance through multilateral organizations and nongoverrnmental organizations should continue, but we need to consider what specific conditions will need to be met in order to allow the International Financial Institutions to work in Afghanistan and even to allow our own assistance to be renewed and diplomatic relations restored.
The Taliban leaders and spokesmen are saying they don’t want Afghans to flee. Some of them may genuinely realize that they need well-educated people to stay. But the behavior of their militants so far belies that:
The fate of those Afghans who support democracy but remain in the country is precarious. August 31 will leave millions of them still at risk inside Afghanistan. Let the people go, but we should also do all we can to save those who remain.
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Stevenson’s army, August 17
– Political Washington is already rehearsing various narratives to use about Afghanistan. Republicans want to blame Biden; Democrats want to blame Trump; many want to say there was an intelligence failure; even those who favor withdrawal blame the administration for poor contingency planning.
-A lot depends on what the pictures are during the next two weeks. If there’s rape and pillage, the administration suffers. If there’s chaos but mostly safe withdrawal of foreigners, different lessons will be offered.
– Be sure to ignore the “what this means for Biden’s legacy” stories, for the time being. Remember, neither Jerry Ford nor either party suffered because of the dramatic “fall of Saigon.” Reagan recovered from the Beirut barracks bombing; Clinton recovered from Blackhawk down; Bush recovered from the 9/11 attacks.
– Meanwhile, I recommend the new Post article summarizing the reports and oral histories in their “Afghanistan Papers.” CRS had a longer summary 2 years ago.
– And for the Congress course, look at CRS report on what Congress has been doing about Afghanistan.
– I also found interesting this from Small Wars Journal.
– And while WSJ says the IC missed the speed of collapse, I remembered Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy, which applies here: “How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | August 16-20, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- What’s Next for Cross-Strait Relations? Trends, Drivers, and Challenges | Aug 17, 2021 | 8:30 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here
Please join CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette for a discussion on the future opportunities and challenges that confront cross-Strait relations with Chiu Chui-cheng, Deputy Minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council.
Speakers:
Chiu Chui-Cheng
Deputy Minister, Mainland Affairs Council, Republic of China
Jude Blanchette
Freemand Chair in Asia Studies, CSIS
- Karun: The tragedy of Iran’s longest river | Aug 17, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Recent protests in Iran’s Khuzestan province have brought new attention to the country’s serious and mounting water shortages caused by decades of mismanagement, exacerbated by droughts and climate change. To delve deeper into these issues, the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to view “Karun,” an award-winning documentary by filmmaker Mohammad Ehsani. It traces the path and the environs of the Karun River, Iran’s longest waterway, which used to be an important source for agriculture and drinking water in Khuzestan. Kaveh Madani, a noted Iranian environmental expert, will provide commentary.
Speakers:
Kaveh Madani
Visiting Fellow, MacMillan Center, Yale University
Barbara Slavin (moderator)
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
- Against the Clock: Saving America’s Afghan Partners | Aug 19, 2021 | 2:30 PM EST | Center for a New American Security | Register Here
With the departure of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s rapid military gains, the United States must act urgently to protect thousands of Afghans who aided the war effort as local translators, fixers, drivers, guides, security guards, and in other critical roles.
While the first group of Afghans recently touched down in the U.S., the vast majority of the nearly twenty thousand special immigrant visa (SIV) applicants and their families await relocation—part of a lengthy process that, as it stands, will long surpass next month’s troop withdrawal deadline. This is not the first time the U.S. has been faced with this challenge: in 1975 the Ford administration evacuated more than 100,000 Vietnamese refugees to the U.S. via Guam; and the U.S. similarly airlifted thousands of Iraqis and Kosovar Albanians to safety in 1996 and 1999, respectively. Today, as the Taliban seizes key ground across Afghanistan, there is little time to spare.
This panel will discuss the status of U.S. efforts to relocate Afghan visa applicants, lessons learned from similar evacuations in the past, and what must be done next.
Speakers:
Rep. Seth Moulton
Co-Chair, Honoring Our Promises Working Group
Member, House Armed Services Committee
Amb. Richard Armitage
President, Armitage International
Former Deputy Secretary of State (2001-2005)
Richard Fontaine
Chief Executive Officer, CNAS
Lisa Curtis
Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, CNAS
Former Deputy Assistant to the President and National Security Council Senior
Director for South and Central Asia, National Security Council
- The Deeper Consequences of the War on Terror | Aug 19, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | CSIS | Register Here
The January 6 Capitol attack stunned the nation, but Karen J. Greenberg argues in her new book that the pernicious effects of disinformation, xenophobia, and disdain for the law are rooted in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) International Security Program will host this conversation on how the war on terror may have resulted in unseen effects on democratic norms, and how those democratic norms have evolved over time.
Speakers:
Karen J. Greenberg
Director, Center on National Security, Fordham University School of Law
Emily Harding
Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, International Security Program, CSIS
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Peace Picks August 9 – 15, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Update on the Victims of Sinjar: The Need to Locate Thousands of Missing Yezidis | August 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In 2014 the Islamic State began its campaign to annihilate Yezidis in Iraq and Syria. The territorial defeat of ISIS did not, however, end the suffering of Yezidis and other victims of Daesh. Until now, there are an estimated 2,868 Yezidis whose whereabouts are still unknown. Many of them were presumed to be dead. However, in July, Yezidi women were discovered in Syria and Iraq who had been missing since 2014 – underscoring the need for concerted international search efforts. Yezidi civil society organizations have called upon the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, the Iraqi Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria, Interpol, UNITAD, UNAMI, and other stakeholders to craft a plan and mount a serious effort to locate Yezidi abductees who are still alive and suffering.
Speakers:
Peter Galbraith
Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia and Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations in Afghanistan
Abid Shamdeen
Co-Founder & Executive Director, Nadia’s Initiative
Nisan Ahmado
Journalist, Voice of America
Merissa Khurma (introduction)
Program Direct, Middle East Program, The Wilson Center
Amy Austin (moderator)
Public Policy fellow and former visiting Scholar at Harvard University
- RESCHEDULED: U.S. National Security in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with Senator Tammy Duckworth | August 10, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation with U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). She will discuss U.S. national security in the Indo-Pacific and her recent visit to the region. Senator Duckworth is an Iraq War Veteran, Purple Heart recipient and former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. A Blackhawk helicopter pilot, she was among the first handful of Army women to fly combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Senator Duckworth served in the Reserve Forces for 23 years before retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel in 2014. She was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016 after representing Illinois’s Eighth Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for two terms.
Senator Duckworth serves on the Armed Services Committee; the Environment & Public Works Committee; the Commerce, Science, Transportation Committee; and the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee.
Speakers:
U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Member, Senate Armed Services Committee
Nina Easton
Senior Associate (non-resident), CSIS
Beverly Kirk
Fellow and Director for Outreach, International Security Program, and Director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative
- The Future of Data, Oceans, and International Affairs | August 11, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Oceans are known as the final frontier. Currently, humanity knows less about oceans than about outer space. The oceans present potential solutions to some of our world’s most pressing problems such as climate change and food security, and are also an emergent strategic geopolitical battleground, with recent increased activity in the South China Sea. This GeoTech Hour will cover current oceanic data gaps, how and when these data gaps may be filled, and the implications of filling such data gaps. It will further touch upon the intersection between the oceans and international affairs, and how data is transforming this relationship.
Additionally, understanding both the deep ocean as well as coastal areas will be essential for our future ahead. Our panelists will also discuss the need to be prepared for when climate change starts to cause both extreme ocean-related weather events, such as severe hurricanes and typhoons – as well as “splash over events”, where ocean water mixes with land-based sources for potable freshwater.
Speakers:
Thammy Evans
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
Horst Kremers
Secretary-General, Senior Engineer and Information Scientist, andInformation Systems Strategy Advisor, RIMMA CoE
Eric Rasmussen
CEO, Infinitum Humanitarian Systems (IHS)
Sahil Shah
Co-founder and Director, Sustainable Seaweed
David Bray, PhD
Director, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
- Hindsight Up Front: Afghanistan | Ambassador Mark Green in Conversation with H.R. McMaster | August 12, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
This event, part of Hindsight Up Front, the Wilson Center’s new Afghanistan initiative, features a discussion with H.R. McMaster, a national security adviser in the Trump administration and currently the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. The conversation—moderated by Wilson Center President, Director, and CEO Mark Green—will assess nearly 20 years of U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, focus on the U.S. withdrawal and its implications, and consider options for future U.S. policy. The discussion will also explore immediate policy recommendations for the Biden administration, and what can be done to ensure that U.S. interests in Afghanistan continue to be advanced.
Speakers:
Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster
Ambassador Mark Green (moderator)
President, Director & CEO, Wilson Center
- Exploring Humanitarian Frameworks for Venezuela: Learning from Iraq’s UN Program Failure | August 11, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
On August 13, the Venezuelan opposition and Maduro will meet in Mexico to kick off Norwegian-mediated negotiations. With political discussions soon to be underway, it’s simultaneously important to consider pathways for expanded and more effective humanitarian assistance. One historical experience that offers insight into what does not work and what could work: Iraq’s 1996 oil-for-food program with the United Nations.
What are the lessons learned from Iraq’s humanitarian program that are applicable to Venezuela? How can the role of the US and the international community in the Iraq experience be applied to present-day Venezuela? What other avenues exist to address Venezuela’s ongoing humanitarian crisis?
Speakers:
Abbas Kadhim
Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Hagar Hajjar Chemali
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council; Former Director of Communications and Spokesperson, US Mission to the United Nations
Francisco Monaldi
Director and Fellow,Latin America Initiative, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University
Patricia Ventura
Director,Regional Public Affairs and Government Relations, IPD Latin America
Tamara Herrera
Managing Director and Chief Economist, Síntesis Financiera
Jason Marczak (moderator)
Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Diego Area (moderator)
Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
- Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump | August 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | CATO Institute | Register Here
For an entire generation, at home and abroad, the United States has waged a war on terror. Fighting it has produced neither peace nor victory, but it has transformed America. A politically divided country turned the war on terror into a cultural and then tribal struggle, first on the ideological fringes and ultimately expanding to open a door for today’s nationalist, exclusionary resurgence.
In Reign of Terror, journalist Spencer Ackerman argues that war on terror policies laid a foundation for American authoritarianism. In Ackerman’s account, Barack Obama’s failure to end the war on terror after the killing of Osama Bin Laden allowed cultural polarization to progress and set the groundwork for Donald Trump’s rise to power. As we approach the 20th anniversary of 9/11, please join us for a discussion of how the war on terror transformed the United States and the prospects for moving away from its divisive excesses.
Speakers:
Spencer Ackerman
Author, Contributing Editor, Daily Beast
Abigail R. Hall
Associate Professor in Economics, Bellarmine University
Erin M. Simpson
Former Co-Host, Bombshell podcast from War on the Rocks
Justin Logan
Senior Fellow, CATO Institute
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