Category: Uncategorized
I don’t like Christmas, but I still enjoy it
My wife said I should write this post. I have my doubts. It is sure to offend.
I don’t like Christmas. It’s not just the commercialization, the artificial cheeriness, the tinkly upbeat and lethargic downbeat tunes, the destruction of pine trees or their synthetic replacements, and the silliness of telling children that elves make their toys and a mythological Santa Claus delivers them. Those would all be good reasons to have doubts.
Nor do I mind the finer things associated with the holiday. Dinner with family, listening to Handel’s Messiah as well as Amahl and the Night Visitors, the many beautiful paintings of the Nativity, the inspiration to do good, and the celebration of human fellowship. These are all welcome, any day of the year.
What I object to is the specifically Christian aspect of Christmas. The story itself is incredible. A virgin gave birth to the son of God? That son of God was destined to die for human sins on the cross? He will return some day as the Messiah to initiate a last judgment? I suppose it is logical that people who believe such things might also invent something as unbelievable as Santa Claus and his elves, but that doesn’t make it more appealing.
You may write all this off to my being Jewish, or if you like to my being a skeptic. To me, the Messiah is as fantastical as Santa Claus. Consider what we know:
- Our earth is just one of millions of planets throughout the universe. It is unlikely that its living inhabitants are unique. A few billion years and millions of planets will have generated the physical and chemical conditions for life elsewhere, as they did here.
- There is no good reason for God to have chosen this particular planet to impregnate the virgin with his son. I know he can do whatever he likes, but is He just capricious? Or does He do this on every planet? Or does our God do it here and other gods do what they want on other planets?
There is a good reason why the Pope burned Giordano Bruno at the stake in Campo de’ Fiori in 1600 for preaching a multiplicity of worlds. That fact is incompatible with traditional Christian beliefs. I can imagine the hostility and violence with which our first visitors from outer space will be greeted. I can only hope they are as wise and powerful as those in “The Day the Earth Stood Still.” The 1951 version of course–one of the first films I remember.
Still, I do enjoy Christmas. It has many virtues not found in shopping malls and churches: on the day itself, less traffic, fewer emails, more quiet, an opportunity for contemplation, the invitation to be charitable, a feeling of good will towards others, and the warmth of family and friends. Whatever God or gods there may be, they have a lot of planets to play with. If there is to be any good in the world, humans will have to make it happen.
Merry Christmas miscreants! And to all a fake handout!
President Trump yesterday pardoned 15 miscreants, none of whom seem to have expressed remorse outside a courtroom, made restitution, or devoted themselves to good works. They include mass murderers, fraudsters, liars, drug traffickers, and thieves. There is nothing wrong with pardons for the deserving, but this group wouldn’t even pass muster to be considered for pardons in the usual Justice Department process. Another five people had their sentences commuted.
The President also let it be known that he favors bigger relief payments in the legislation Congress has just passed, after more than 7 months of negotiations and Republican stalling. He would like credit for advocating more than triple what is being provided, but he has intervened too late to make it happen except by a procedure known as unanimous consent. The Democrats will likely propose to use that, but at least some Republicans will object. The President’s handout proposal is a fake.
Pardons are a double-edged sword, since they make it impossible for those pardoned to refuse to testify in court proceedings on grounds of self-incrimination. Thus far, none of those pardoned would appear to be a good candidate for testifying against Trump in court. One who was, Roger Stone, got a commutation of his sentence, which doesn’t erase the conviction and enables him to “plead the fifth.”* Trump may pardon his lawyers, business associates, and family members, but only those he can rely on to lack evidence against him or he thinks are determined to defend him at all costs.
While Christmas has elicited unmerited pardons and a fake handout, the New Year will produce confirmation of the electoral outcome in Congress, where at least a few Republicans will object on January 6 to Joe Biden’s win. That will make for lots of political drama with no substantial effect while Trump’s diehards demonstrate in the streets of Washington and generate the kind of turmoil Trump predicted would happen under a Biden Administration. Trump is determined to leave office with his reputation for promoting violence and wrecking the American political system intact.
Biden is a far more credible and less volatile leader. He has already named a cabinet of worthies that is also more inclusive of minorities and women than any in the past. He will inherit a disastrous epidemic and a still far from fully recovered economy. Depending on the run-off election in Georgia January 5 his party may not control the Senate. But he is a man who respects the American political system, eschews violence, and will quietly but firmly try to restore confidence in America at home and abroad. That will be far better than the unproductive chaos of the last four years.
*PS: This changed a few hours after I posted–Trump pardoned Stone, who can therefore no longer avoid testifying based on self-incrimination in a Federal proceeding.
Stevenson’s army, December 20
WaPo has a long review of the administration’s mishandling of the pandemic.
What jumps out at me is how amateurish and crony-coddling Kushner’s efforts were and how Scott Atlas dominated and derailed the Task Force.
NYT has leaked Chinese emails [reprinted in Chinese with English translations] showing efforts to censor news about the coronavirus.
Trump disputes Pompeo on Russian role in cyber hacks.
WSJ says administration wants to split NSA and Cyber Command
RollCall analysts says GOP has moved farther right in recent decades than Democrats moved left.
Politico asks, Is Trump cracking?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, December 18
I have long been concerned that the US, especially the military, have given priority to cyber offense rather than defense in spending, planning, and thinking. Now we have the massive Russian hack of the US government which looks to me like espionage rather than “war.” [Maybe we need some secret understandings on this. In the analog era, it was OK for countries to steal and bribe to get secrets, but not to kill. And while cyber espionage can give an adversary potential advantages in combat, retaliation should not be deadly.] But the political rhetoric is close to “act of war,” when we should take it as a wake up call to be better at defense and resilience.
NDAA imperiled. It looks as if Trump will wait until Dec 23 to veto the NDAA, forcing Congress to reconvene before noon on Jan. 3 for override votes. House votes first. If it fails, the 59 year record of NDAAs will fall. RollCall has more details.
The administration released a “tri-maritime strategy” paper but can’t explain it.
Interagency fight over order blocking US investments in Chinese firms with military links.
Just over 155 million people voted for the presidential candidates in November. If just 32,000 of them had voted for GOP congressional candidates, the Republicans would have won control of the House.
WaPo has a Biden appointment tracker.
Climate change boosts Russian agriculture.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Russia disrespects sovereignty and the Dayton accords
I did an interview yesterday with Aldin Tiro, who published it today at hayat.ba:
Q: You probably heard that [Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov] met with Milorad Dodik last night in Republika Srpska, where the BiH [Bosnian] flag was not hoisted at all.
Lavrov also praised the RS National Assembly’s decision to be militarily neutral. At the meeting, the state of BiH was degraded and disrespect was expressed, and Dodik said at one point that Lavrov first came to RS last night and that he would come to BiH only [the next day]?
How to comment on such behavior of Russia, that is, Lavrov, who is an experienced politician?
A: Lavrov knows what he is doing: providing support to a secessionist who seeks to do Moscow’s bidding and prevent NATO membership.
Q: How do you view the facts that today Sefik Dzaferovic and Zeljko Komsic (the other two members of the Presidency of BiH) refused to meet with Lavrov?
A: I think they did the right thing. The Sarajevo state institutions need to be respected. Lavrov will be furious.
Q: Has Russia expressed disrespect for BiH? One could constantly hear Lavrov’s statement that Russia respects the territorial integrity of BiH and sends it to Dayton, and it is persistently repeated that it wants the High Representative to leave?
A: Duplicity is Lavrov’s middle name. You can’t respect the territorial integrity of BiH and visit Dodik first in a room without the Bosnian state flag. You can’t respect Dayton and want the High Representative responsible for the interpretation and implementation of Dayton to leave.
Q: How do you view Milorad Dodik’s behavior during these visits?
A: Dodik is Moscow’s puppet. No more, no less.
Q: Who will “profit” the most, that is, who is the manager here?
A: Lavrov is the manager, but no doubt Dodik is profiting.
Trying to mind read Biden in Tehran
Mohammad Lotfollahi of Iran’s Etemad Newspaper asked questions. I responded:
Q: The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian nuclear scientist, by Israel (according to the New York Times) has greatly changed the political equation and increased tensions. What do you think was the motive of the perpetrators of this assassination?
A: I imagine there are several motives, including setting back the Iranian nuclear program, but the timing seems related to the political situation in the US. The Israelis want to make it hard for President Biden to return to the JCPOA. Iranian retaliation against Israel or the United States would make that difficult.
Q: Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018. He tried to reach a better agreement with maximum pressure and sanctions. Was Trump able to achieve his goals?
A: No, the maximum pressure campaign generated a maximum resistance response, with no visible progress in getting to a better agreement.
Q: With Joe Biden in office, will US policy continue to use sanctions against Iran, or will Washington pursue diplomacy and cooperation?
A: Washington will shift towards diplomacy, but not all the sanctions are nuclear-related. Some derive from support to terrorism and human rights abuses. I don’t expect to see all the sanctions lifted until there is a broader agreement than the JCPOA, and maybe not even then.
Q: The Economist says Joe Biden should drive a hard bargain with Iran. In your opinion, what policy should Biden have towards Iran?
A: I think the JCPOA had adequate restraints on the Iranian nuclear program for the time frame of its validity. The Americans will now want to extend that time frame and the physical scope of IAEA inspections as well as limit Iranian power projection in the region, including its missile program and support to proxies. I don’t know whether Iran will be prepared to discuss those issues or whether agreement on them is possible, but normalization of relations with Washington will require real progress on them.
Q: German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told weekly Der Spiegel that it was in the interest of the US and Europeans to reach a broader agreement with Tehran. Does it make sense to look for a bigger deal when you can’t have a small successful deal?
A: Maybe not, but it is worth a try. The JCPOA was successful so long as the Americans remained committed to it.
Q: A win-win agreement between Iran and the United States should have what characteristics? What role can Europe play in signing this agreement
A: Win-win would mean increased security for the US, Israel, the Arab states of the Gulf, and for Iran. I can picture that, though we are still far from it.
Q: Netanyahu is a staunch opponent of the nuclear deal. He supports a military strike on Iran. He carried out several sabotage operations against Iran during the Trump era. Under Biden, will the US president follow in Obama’s footsteps or prefer to work with Netanyahu?
A: I don’t know precisely what Biden will do. He will certainly be committed to Israel’s security, but he will at the same time try to revive the JCPOA and to restrain Israeli operations in hope of getting Iran to restrain its nuclear program and regional power projection.
Q: “Under a Biden-Harris administration, we will reassess our relationship with the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia], end US support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil,” Biden said in October. What policy will the Biden government have in the Middle East? Do human rights really influence the policies of the future US government?
A: Yes, I think human rights will play a stronger role in the Biden Administration than they have in the Trump Administration, including human rights in Iran as well as in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. There will be no sword dancing in Riyadh. But there are also limits to what can be achieved in societies governed by autocratic regimes. I would guess Biden will initially focus on Saudi women imprisoned for driving and other protests in the Kingdom and Americans imprisoned in the Islamic Republic.