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The broader picture isn’t pretty
While the victory of Joe Biden in the presidential contest is cheering, the broader picture isn’t pretty. It’s not only that President Trump got about 70 million votes, despite four years of erratic, corrupt, racist, misogynist, and incompetent governance. The “down ballot” contests went badly for the Democrats.
They gained two seats in the Senate, but that is not enough to wrest control from the Republicans. There is a slim chance they could win control in two Georgia run-offs on January 5, but the hopes they had of an unequivocal outcome did not materialize. A Republican majority in the upper house will severely limit Biden’s political freedom, as a majority is needed in the Senate not only for legislation but also for appointment of judges and Administration officials. Biden will need all the skills he built up over more than four decades in Congress to get Republicans to cross the aisle while holding on to his Democratic supporters. He will not be able without a Senate majority to admit DC and Puerto Rico as states, which should be the first priority of a Democratic-controlled Senate.
The picture in the House is better but not great. There the Democrats held on to their majority but may have lost a handful of seats.
The big problem is not in the House of Representatives but in the state houses and governorships, which will be redrawing Congressional districts next year on the basis of this year’s fraught census. It was conducted under non-ideal conditions due to the epidemic, and Trump is still trying to skew the results in the Republican direction by not counting non-citizens (as the constitution requires). The Republican-controlled state legislatures are past masters at gerrymandering Congressional districts to enhance Republican representation both in their own bodies and in the Congress.
How could this happen? In short, the blue wave met a red wave. Turnout was up from around 60% in 2016 to over 66% in 2020. I have a college classmate who argues that the main motivating issue was the economy. I doubt that. I think it was race. The “white” majority in the United States has discovered what the demographers have long known: their numbers are in relative decline. They fear this decline will lead to a decline in political power. We’ll need to await more detailed parsing of the results to be certain, but my guess is that some people disgusted with Trump nevertheless wanted to reassert traditional American values, which include white control of the levers of power.
Rick Perlstein on NPR this morning told you everything you need to know about the history of the factions within the Republican party that wanted to hold on to power without commanding a majority:
The Republican party has become overwhelmingly white, despite the small drift of black males in his direction. Nor does Trump’s ability to attract Cuban American and Venezuelan American votes prove the contrary. I’ll bet that the overwhelming majority of those who voted for Trump regard themselves as white. This will continue until we get rid of the Electoral College, admit DC and Puerto Rico as states, and make same-day registration a reality throughout the land. Then Republicans will need to appeal more broadly across racial lines to gain a majority. That is the direction it appeared Lincoln’s party was prepared to take in the early 2000s. It is a shame that approach did not prevail.
For now, though, guys like me will have to be relieved that Biden has triumphed. It was really close. Biden will end up with something like 5 million more votes than Trump and possibly as many electoral votes as Trump got in 2016. But Trump’s 70 million will have their say in an unrepresentative Senate and a gerrymandered House.
PS: On the lame duck months until January 20, here is a first approximation:
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Bullying won’t win in a landslide
Reuters reports: WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF SAYS “THE PRESIDENT IS DOING VERY WELL. HE IS UP AND ABOUT AND ASKING FOR DOCUMENTS TO REVIEW. THE DOCTORS ARE VERY PLEASED WITH HIS VITAL SIGNS”
I don’t believe a word of this, not least because the same White House Chief of Staff had previously said that the next 48 hours would be critical. But also because this White House doesn’t often tell the truth. The President himself is incapable of it. And he certainly isn’t asking for documents to review.
The fact is Trump and his campaign are in trouble. Overweight and 74 years old, the President can barely walk down ramp. Even before his illness, his campaign was already lagging in both the 538 and Economist projections. These two best in class forecasts agreed that he had less than a one in five chance of winning the Electoral College and virtually no chance at all of winning the popular vote. Now Trump is out of commission, likely for at least a week more. Unless Joe Biden also gets sick, that would put Trump at a disadvantage until three weeks or so before Election Day, by which time a significant percentage of Americans will already have cast their ballots by mail and in “early” voting.
Trump’s illness will not cut into his “base.” Something like 40% of the country has proved loyal to him through 3.5 years of domestic and international failure, including his inept response to Covid19, his tax cuts for the wealthy, the collapse of the economy, his defense of white supremacists, his threats of violence against peaceful citizens, his defense of abuse by police, his nonpayment of income taxes, his disdain for American troops, and his destruction of America’s international standing.
But Trump has done nothing to expand beyond his base, which explains why he is running against the election rather than against Biden. The pre-and Election Day part of this strategy consists of two parts:
- Cast doubt on whether the election will be free and fair (to him);
- Suppress the Democratic vote, especially in “battleground” states like Pennsylvania, using court cases, social media (including Russian bots), robocalls, threats of intimidation, poll watchers, interference by state legislatures in the balloting, and election disinformation.
The post-Election Day part of this strategy will be fought out mainly in court, by challenging the validity of votes and tabulations while white supremacists with guns “stand by” to protect the streets. Republican-controlled state legislatures will look for opportunities to intervene wherever the voting is close to seize the initiative and cast the state’s electoral votes for Trump, which is theoretically possible under the Constitution if the outcome appears ambiguous.
Trump’s illness won’t have much effect on this effort to determine the election result. The apparatus to accomplish this strategy is already deployed and active. The President’s role is to provide leadership and cover for it. The Democrats will of course mount a defense in depth, but by far the best way of avoiding a messy aftermath of Election Day is a definitive and uncontestable victory on November 3. The odds of that are rising. Trump’s debate performance last week, which he regards as a plus, has taken big toll on his numbers.
That will only cause Trump’s supporters to double down on the strategy outlined above. They are going to try to bully their way to an Electoral College victory. But it can only work if he avoids a landslide that is looking increasingly likely.
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Trump isn’t running in the election, he’s running against it
All that needs saying about this Mara Liasson said on NPR this morning:
https://www.npr.org/player/embed/916413751/916413752
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India no longer wants to be a loner
Kashmir is a region fraught with turmoil. Three nuclear powers, two of them the most populous nations on Earth, have vied for over a half-century over the ownership of this mountainous region. Even amidst the instability, no fatal violence has occurred between China and India in 45 years. That uneasy peace was shattered earlier this summer, when Chinese and Indian troops clashed in the remote Ladekh region. This event was a wake-up call for many about the changing India-China relationship. USIP’s Vikram Singh spoke with former Indian diplomat Nirupama Rao to discuss how worsening Indian relations with China, the worldwide pandemic and recession catalyzed a dramatic shift in Indian foreign policy.
Nirupama Rao: Former Indian Foreign Secretary and Ambassador (China, United States)
Vikram Singh (moderator): Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute for Peace
India squeezed between China and Pakistan
Indian-Chinese relations were not always this tense, maintains Former Ambassador Rao. In the decades since Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s pivotal visit to China 1988, India and China were able to foster a working partnership. Both countries were economically and militarily similar at the time and border disputes were left ambiguous and undecided. But, the economic resurgence of China (which Rao attributes to “American favoritism) allowed it to outpace India, and now China is beginning to flex its newfound economic and military might.
Rao believes that under Xi Jinping, China has become swept up in what she calls an “overzealous nationalism.” India feels threatened by Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and in Sri Lanka, where China recently acquired a port on a 99-year lease. India is also confronted with China’s support for Pakistan, which Rao suggests is China’s “only friend.” In particular, China’s recent attempts to nationalize the Kashmir dispute are proof to the Indian government that China is not a neutral party in this conflict. According to Rao, India considers the China-Pakistan relationship to be a “thorn in India’s side.”
While China and India have established a new ceasefire in Ladekh, she suggests that this agreement alone will not reduce tensions in the region.
Looking for friends
India historically has prided itself on strategic independence. This is beginning to change, asserts Rao. India is beginning to reach out to what she describes as its “natural democratic partners” in the Subcontinent, in Southeast Asia, and especially the United States. The most striking aspect of her remarks was her emphasis on deepening relations with the United States, traditionally a foe of Indian priorities in the United Nations sphere. Now, India hopes to capitalize on discontent among China’s neighbors, who she suggests have been “strung along by China on a leash.”
Rao asserts that it is India’s hope to develop a multilateral network of states in the region to maintain freedom of the seas as well as collaborate and develop interstate infrastructure. She views the United States as a natural partner in this endeavor, and welcomes increased American involvement in the region. Such candor about strengthening US-Indian ties is indicative of an inflection point in Indian foreign policy.
Amidst the chaos, a silver lining
While Rao initially suggested that India’s current prospects vis-à-vis China are rather bleak, she concluded on a hopeful note by describing her work as founder of the South Asian Symphony Foundation, an orchestra modeled after the iconic Arab-Israeli orchestra. Rao hopes that, through music, diverse South Asian cultures can obtain peace through musical harmony.
To watch the event in full, click here.
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Reality in the land of Oz
President Trump has been lining up what he thinks of as diplomatic triumphs the past few weeks. Here’s the reality behind the Wizard’s Oz:
Peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. They have been a long time coming, but they have finally started in Doha. Main credit goes to Zal Khalilzad. He was given lemons and made lemonade. Told to get a diplomatic outcome that would enable US withdrawal, he first reached an agreement with the Taliban not to support international terrorists if the US agreed to withdraw. He then squeezed Afghanistan President Ghani, who doesn’t want US withdrawal because he knows his own security forces are not up to the task of defeating the Taliban.
Ghani dragged his feet but slowly came around, fearing the US might cut and run. The lesson is clear: if you are a US ally who depends on Washington for your survival, you may end up doing things you really don’t want to do, like talk about the future of your country with people whose aim is to chase you and your scheme of government out. But Zal gets credit for at least a partial withdrawal of US troops before the election, which was Washington’s main concern. Nineteen years of fighting Afghanistan’s war really is enough.
UAE and Bahrain diplomatic relations with Israel. These are not “peace” agreements as Israel has not been at war with either the Emirates or Bahrain, unlike Egypt and Jordan (which have already made peace with Israel). But Arab acceptance of Israel is significant. It is not too difficult to imagine Saudi Arabia following suit.
The texts of the agreements appear to contain no implicit or explicit reference to the “land for peace” formula or UN Security Council resolution 242. This will upset the Palestinians. It means Prime Minister Netanyahu, who only agreed to suspend the threat of annexing a large part of the West Bank, can renew the threat once things are firmed up with the UAE and Bahrain. The agreement between Israel and the UAE provides for resident ambassadors, which likely means Abu Dhabi will have to buckle to Israel’s demand that the embassies be located in Jerusalem, another big loss for the Palestinians.
The UAE and Bahrain are confirming for all to see what has been the case for a long time: they do a lot of business with Israel. The nature of that business is important. The Israelis provide much of the technology that keeps Arab autocrats in power and their citizens quiescent, something much appreciated in the Gulf. It is true that Israel also shares with most of the Gulf fear of Iran, but their views are not identical. Neither the Emirates nor Bahrain can afford a war with Iran, whose missiles can easily strike their capitals. Israel is willing to take the risk if needed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
3. Kosovo/Serbia economic normalization. The agreements signed at the White House earlier in the month on separate pieces of paper aren’t worth much. Their most significant provision is Israel’s recognition of Kosovo. Serbia has said it will renege on establishing its embassy in Jerusalem if that happens.
Economic normalization between Serbia and Kosovo is a good idea, but the main elements of such a move are nowhere to be found in the parallel agreements, which mainly call for implementation of existing transport deals. Missing are all the really important aspects of economic normalization: removal of non-tariff barriers, acceleration of procedures at the border, disposition of state-owned property like the Trepca mining complex, mutual recognition of licensing, free movement of people and capital, coordination of banking regulations…. All of that remains to be negotiated in the so-called “mini-Schengen” group Kosovo has agreed to join. This is by far the least significant of the Trumpeted diplomatic achievements.
These are not earthshaking diplomatic achievements. None of them rank much above a three on the Richter scale. They come now because of the election. All the countries involved have been anxious to help Trump in his re-election bid, not least because that is what he requires of them. The Wizard’s Oz is a land that revolves around him, but it is not a land of big achievements.
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