Category: Uncategorized
Peace Picks | September 14 – September 18, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference, Session Three | September 14, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference: Session Three on Monday, September 14, 2020. This monthly webinar series will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of developments in the South China Sea over the past year and potential paths forward. This session will feature a panel discussion on dispute management in the South China Sea, including coordination mechanisms for law enforcement, fisheries, and other natural resources.
Speakers:
Amanda Hsiao: Project Manager, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
Ivy Kwek: Research Director, Research for Social Advancement (REFSA), Kuala Lumpur
Greta Nabbs-Keller: Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland
2. Global Democracy and the Coronavirus Fallout | September 14, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM CEST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Europe | Register Here
As the coronavirus pandemic tests governments and societies around the world, it is also stressing the already fragile state of global democracy by undermining critical democratic processes, sidelining human rights, and unfettering authoritarianism.
How can Europe’s response to the crisis address the immediate issues and bolster democracy, protect human rights, and foster longer-term peace and stability around the world?
On the eve of International Democracy Day, join Per Olsson Fridh, Anu Juvonen, and Stefano Sannino for a discussion to explore the state of global democracy, European foreign policy, and democracy support amid the pandemic. Rosa Balfour will moderate.
Speakers:
Per Olsson Fridh: State Secretary to the Minister for International Development Cooperation, Sweden.
Anu Juvonen: Executive Director of Demo Finland, Political Parties of Finland for Democracy.
Stefano Sannino: Deputy Secretary General for economic and global issues of the European External Action Service.
Rosa Balfour: Director of Carnegie Europe.
3. Venezuela on the Brink of Famine: The Impact of Covid-19 | September 15, 2020 | 10:00 – 10:45 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Hospitals in Venezuela are reporting deadly surges in Covid-19, a pandemic the country is utterly unprepared to treat. The Maduro regime has limited testing to a few government-controlled labs, casting doubt on official government tallies. And, while aid and technical assistance have trickled in—facilitated by a humanitarian agreement signed by the opposition and the regime in early June—much more is needed. Gasoline remains scarce despite highly publicized gasoline shipments from Iran, paralyzing food distribution systems. 35% of adults are eating only once per day. Facing economic uncertainty, tens of thousands of vulnerable migrants have chosen to return, and the regime has accused them of being ‘biological weapons’. Now the poorest country in Latin America, Venezuela is on the verge of famine with a third of its population in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
This virtual event will shed light on the gravity of the situation on the ground and how the Covid-19 pandemic has further deepened the humanitarian crisis. We will hear from representatives of civil society organizations that are monitoring and responding to the humanitarian crisis, including Cáritas Venezuela and Acción Solidaria.
Speakers:
Susana Raffalli: Senior Humanitarian Adviser, Cáritas Venezuela
Feliciano Reyna: President, Acción Solidaria.
4. Inaugural Women Building Peace Award Celebration | September 15, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Every day, women around the world are leading movements to create enduring, peaceful societies. Yet all too often, women’s roles in ending and preventing conflict go unnoticed. The U.S. Institute of Peace is committed to changing that. With the inaugural Women Building Peace Award, USIP will honor the inspiring work of women peacebuilders whose courage, leadership, and commitment to peace stand out as beacons of strength and hope.
From Africa and the Middle East to Southeast Asia and South America, USIP’s 10 Women Building Peace Award finalists have overcome conflict and violence to forge hope for a brighter future. Individually, they have transformed themselves, their communities, and their countries through their relentless and creative approaches to building peace. Together, their stories reveal the resilience of the human spirit in the face of overwhelming odds and the power of women to mold lasting peace from seemingly endless conflict.
Join USIP for the inaugural Women Building Peace Award ceremony and hear from these inspiring women, whose collective work stretches across continents and spans generations, as they share how they made their communities and the world a better, more peaceful place.
The ceremony will also feature peace strategist and consultant to the United Nations Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, Nobel Peace Prize winner Leymah Gbowee, Academy Award winning actor Geena Davis, former USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg, and other prominent women in media and peacebuilding who are working across the United States and globally to create an environment that enables girls, women, and all people to realize their potential as peacebuilders, leaders, and agents of change.
The event will conclude with the announcement of the sole 2020 Women Building Peace Award recipient. The awardee, whose substantial and practical contributions to peace serve as an inspiration and guiding light for future women peacebuilders, will receive a $10,000 prize.
Speakers:
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE: Founder & CEO, International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN); Director, Centre for Women, Peace and Security, London School of Economics and Political Science
Megan C. Beyer: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Marcia Myers Carlucci: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Ambassador Johnnie Carson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador at Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Geena Davis: Founder, Geena Davis Institute on Gender in Media
Leymah Gbowee: 2011 Nobel Peace Laureate; Founder/President, Gbowee Peace Foundation Africa (GPFA)
Michelle J. Howard: Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Nancy Lindborg; Former President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace; Honorary Women Building Peace Council Chair
5. Defense Policy and the 2020 Election | September 15, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The 2020 election takes place at an extraordinarily polarized moment in American history. Having claimed over 180,000 lives and destroyed millions of jobs, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate headlines and will be at the forefront of voters’ minds when they cast their ballots in November. Yet, America also faces a wide array of national security threats beyond the pandemic, threats that require attention, planning, and investment from national leadership. While the National Defense Strategy places a rising China and a revanchist Russia at the heart of defense planning, other threats such as extremist actors, climate change, and transnational criminal organizations challenge the U.S. as well. Moreover, as the nation embraces historically high deficits to tackle the pandemic, Congress and the administration will need to make difficult trade-offs to pay for it all, promising a contentious debate in the coming year about the future of the defense budget.
On September 15, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, as part of the Policy 2020 event series, will discuss these and other issues as the nation prepares for the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
The Policy 2020 event series aims to empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, non-partisan information so they can better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office in 2020.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Frank A. Rose: Co-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Maya MacGuineas: President – Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Jessica Mathews: Distinguished Fellow – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
6. Is a Plan B Needed to Save Afghanistan? | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The future of Afghanistan’s constitutionally liberal democratic system is very much at issue. On its survival rests the aspiration of the greatest number of its people, the deep investment of the international community in the country’s stability and wellbeing, and ultimately the security of the region and beyond. Negotiations are beginning in what is certain to be a lengthy process that may in the name of a compromise trade away social and economic gains realized over nearly two decades. Afghanistan has additionally to cope with the disengagement of foreign forces just at a time when their leverage militarily and diplomatically could be critical. In the absence of a verifiable ceasefire, the country confronts a prospect of exploding violence and possible descent into chaos.
Can Afghanistan pull itself together to not only protect its achievements but to overcome past errors? Should Afghans and their international partners think about formulating a Plan B to save the republic while striving for true reconciliation with the insurgency? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Anthony Cordesman: Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ali Jalali: Distinguished professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Saad Mohseni: Chairman and CEO, MOBY Group
David Sedney: President, American University of Afghanistan
Muqaddesa Yourish: Former Afghan deputy minister of commerce; member, MOBY Group Media; political activist
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Middle East Institute
7. American Leadership in Advancing the Sustainable Development Goals | September 16, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The devastating health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed and exacerbated stark inequalities and vulnerabilities in the United States. At the same time, protests sparked by the tragic killing of George Floyd have put the spotlight on America’s long history of racial injustice. The commitment to equity, justice, and environmental preservation reflected in the sustainable development goals (SDGs) is more critical today than ever, a foundation to respond to these crises and to build a future that leaves no one behind. Building off a successful first gathering last year on the margins of the UN General Assembly, this event will showcase local innovation, leadership, actions, and commitments from all parts of the American society, including cities, businesses, universities, philanthropy, and youth activists. Their leadership is crucial to a recovery that advances equity and sustainability here at home, and provides a fundamental basis for U.S. credibility and leadership abroad on the defining issues of our day.
On Wednesday, September 16, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT, the Brookings Institution and the UN Foundation will co-host a high-level virtual event to showcase the power of the SDGs in the United States.
Speakers and Itinerary:
WELCOME
John R. Allen: President, The Brookings Institution
SPOTLIGHT 1
Fatimata Cham: Youth Poet and Activist
CONTEXT
Anthony F. Pipa: Senior Fellow – Global Economy and Development
KEYNOTE
Hon. Eric Garcetti: Mayor – Los Angeles
PANAL: ENGINES OF ACTION FOR THE SDGS
Penny Abeywardena: Commissioner for International Affairs – Mayor’s Office, City of New York
Majestic Lane: Chief Equity Officer – City of Pittsburgh
Rose Stuckey Kirk: Chief Corporate Social Responsibility Officer – VerizonPresident – Verizon Foundation
Dr. Yvette E. Pearson: Associate Dean for Accreditation, Assessment, and Strategic Initiatives; George R. Brown School of Engineering – Rice University
Kathleen McLaughlin: President – Walmart FoundationExecutive Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer – Walmart, Inc.
SPOTLIGHT 2: LAUNCH OF CMU’S VOLUNTARY UNIVERSITY REVIEW
James H. Garrett Jr.: Provost and Chief Academic Officer – Carnegie Mellon University
LAUNCH OF HAWAII’S STATEWIDE REVIEW OF THE SDG’S & LOOKING FORWARD
Amb. Elizabeth Cousens: President and CEO – UN Foundation
Sen. Brian Schatz: Senator – Hawaii
Gov. David Y. Ige: Governor – Hawaii
SPOTLIGHT 3
Dustin Liu: UNA-USA Youth Observer to the UN
WRAP UP
Kaysie Brown: Vice President for Policy and Strategic Initiatives – UN Foundation
8. Toward Never Again: U.S. Leadership in Atrocity Prevention | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018 calls upon the United States to pursue a government-wide strategy to identify, prevent, and respond to atrocity risk. Critically, the Act underscores the importance of a White House-led interagency working group charged with monitoring atrocity risk and responding to high-risk or imminent atrocity situations. The Atrocity Early Warning Task Force has refined the U.S. approach to atrocity prevention through enhanced early warning and improved interagency coordination to mitigate atrocity risks.
Join USIP and the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations for a discussion on institutionalizing “never again,” as well as interagency efforts to prevent, mitigate, and respond to atrocity risks.
Speakers:
Philippe Leroux-Martin: Director of Governance, Justice & Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
Denise Natali: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Naomi Kikoler: Director, Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
Robert Destro: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Department of State
Stephanie Hammond: Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Peacekeeping and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of Defense
Kirsten Madison: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Peter Marocco: Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau of Conflict Prevention and Stabilization, U.S. Agency for International Development
Morse Tan: Ambassador-at-Large, Global Criminal Justice, U.S. Department of State
9. India’s Foreign Policy Outlook: An Inflection Point? | September 17, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
How is India responding to rapid changes in the international environment? New Delhi has been managing an unprecedented border crisis with China, warily watching a peace process with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and navigating complex relationships with its neighbors—all amid the global COVID-19 pandemic. How does India define its foreign policy outlook and priorities in a changing global and regional order? Where do continued strong bilateral ties with the United States fit in?
Join USIP as we host one of India’s foremost diplomats and scholars, former Foreign Secretary and former Ambassador to both China and the United States Nirupama Rao, for a candid conversation that explores how Indian leaders are managing challenges in the Indo-Pacific and what we may expect from Indian foreign policy going forward. Ambassador Rao will reflect on her experience and the increasingly relevant lessons from her forthcoming book on India-China relations after World War II.
Speakers:
Andrew Wilder: Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Nirupama Rao: Former Foreign Secretary of India; Former Indian Ambassador to China and the United States
Vikram Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
10. Belarus and Democracy in Europe | September 18, 2020 | 9:30 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Authoritarianism is on the rise across the world, and it is posing a serious challenge to democracy and the post-World War II international system. In Central and Eastern Europe, Freedom House states that there are fewer democracies today than at “any point” since 1995. The remarkable events in Belarus over the past month, however, stand as a strong counterpoint to that trend. The democratic impulse remains powerful, and the refusal of Belarusians to accept another fraudulent presidential election has initiated a standoff whose outcome is uncertain. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who ruled Belarus for 26 years without a serious challenge to his power, now faces one of the strongest pro-democracy movements in Europe in recent years.
Speakers:
Linas Linkevičius: Lithuanian Foreign Minister
Melinda Haring: deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Vladimir Kara-Murza: chairman of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom and vice president of the Free Russia Foundation
Hanna Liubakova: journalist at Outriders and fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Damon Wilson: executive vice president at the Atlantic Council
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Trump’s national insecurity
President Trump has made a big show of Tik Tok’s threat to US national security and is forcing its owner to sell the app to an American company. But its data collection on mostly American teenagers is not unusual or particularly threatening. It is not even clear that Tik Tok is worse than Facebook in kow-towing to Beijing’s political preferences.
So how is Donald Trump doing on real threats to American national security? Here are a few:
- The Russian offer of bounties to the Taliban to kill Americans: Trump is still denying the fact, even though his Secretary of State claims to have belatedly protested to the Russian Foreign minister.
- Russian efforts to affect the outcome of the November election: Trump appears to be helping more than hindering them, mainly by avoiding any effort to counter Moscow. The Russians are on his side, and he knows it.
- The North Korean nuclear and missile threat to the US: Kim Jong-un has told the Americans to forget about economic incentives to get him to give up nuclear weapons. There is no progress at all on limiting them or his missiles.
- The Iranian nuclear program: It is closer to having the materials and technology to build a nuclear weapon than it has ever been previously. Trump has begged the Iranians to come back to the negotiating table, which they refuse to do without sanctions relief that is far more likely in a Biden administration. Tehran will bide its time.
- Al Qaeda and the Islamic State: While the former has not had any recent spectacular successes lately and the latter has lost its territorial caliphate in Iraq and Syria, both are still active jihadist threats to the US. Al Qaeda has burrowed into a dozen or more states in one form or another. It is only a matter of time until they try again to hit the US.
- Taking down Venezuelan President Maduro: Admittedly its a stretch to say he is a threat to the US, but the Trump Administration views him as one. They have failed to displace him. Having failed Trump named the person in charge to handle the Iran failure as well. There is a kind of logic there, but not a productive one.
Where I would rate the Administration partly effective is in responding to China’s technological espionage, but in ways that are so clumsy and self-serving that most of the world is not supportive. Nor is it clear that Beijing is reducing its intellectual property theft.
In trying to block Huawei from selling 5G technology, the Administration has also had some modest successes, like the UK’s decision to roust out Huawei technology. But even the threat of not allowing connections to the US has not bullied many other countries into cutting Huawei off from their telecomms.
The sad fact is that the US is far weaker on the international scene than it was four years ago. President Trump has offended allies, taken little or ineffective action against adversaries, and failed to reduce or contain real threats. Making America great again internationally has meant making America less safe, less respected, and more vulnerable.
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Silence is also a message, of disloyalty
Donald Trump, who often sounds as if he can’t control the words coming out of his mouth, is strikingly silent on some things:
- the Kremlin’s poisoning of Alexei Navalny;
- Russian support to Belarus President Lukashenko’s falsification of election results;
- Russian bounties paid to Taliban fighters for killing Americans.
There is a common denominator here: Vladimir Putin, to whom Trump has been sending fawning letters for a long time. The Senate last week confirmed on a bipartisan basis that Putin sought to help Trump in the 2016 election. He is also trying now, the US intelligence community says.
So it is no surprise that Trump hesitates to speak up against Putin. Trump likes people who like him, as confirmed once again this week when he welcomed the support of the QAnon conspiracy theorists, whom the FBI characterizes as a domestic terrorism threat. Putin supports Trump, Trump doesn’t criticize Putin. QAnon support Trump, Trump doesn’t criticize QAnon.
But I doubt that is the whole story. Trump has also shown disloyalty to those who are loyal to him, claiming that he barely knows them once they get in trouble. Steve Bannon got a taste of Trump’s disloyalty when he was arrested this week for defrauding people who gave money for building a wall on the border. Trump and Don Jr. had welcomed this effort, but now the President says “”It’s a very sad thing by Mr. Bannon…I didn’t like that project. I thought it was a project being done for showboating reasons…I didn’t want a wall that was going to be an inferior wall.” Of course that won’t stop Trump from pardoning Bannon or commuting his sentence after conviction to prevent him from spilling the beans about Trump.
Trump has never to my knowledge said anything even remotely critical of Putin. The message he is sending by his silence is that Putin can do no wrong. The President of the United States will not call him out publicly (and there is no indication Trump has done it privately). Trump’s motives are obscure, but the likelihood is that Russian financing of his real estate is a major factor. Putin is enjoying his impunity. He has semi-successfully intervened not only in Ukraine but also in Syria and Libya. He is backing a notorious election fraud in Belarus. He is murdering opponents at home and abroad. He intervened in the 2016 US election and is doing it again in 2020.
It is true that under Congressional pressure the Trump Administration has levied sanctions on Russia, mainly for its invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea as well as malicious cyber activities and other malfeasances. But even the attempted murder by poisoning of a Russian defector in the UK did not arouse Trump to protest. Trump has said he would welcome foreign assistance in his election campaign, as he did in 2016, violating US law. And he has speculated about pardoning Edward Snowden, who sought refuge in Russia (and got it) after publishing American secrets without availing himself of normal channels of dissent or whistle-blower protection.
President Trump’s loyalties are all too clear. They are not to the United States. He has proven far more loyal to Moscow. That’s the message his silence sends.
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Stevenson’s army, August 7
So I’m back from a few days by a river, relaxing and canoeing. What did I miss?
– The Saudis may be developing nuclear capability.
– CIA isn’t helping GOP investigation of the Bidens. But the real issue it seems to me is to preserve exclusive responsiveness to the intelligence committees.
– Congress may block Trump drone sale policy.
– Provocative US official’s visit to Taiwan.
– We are trying to get Syrian oil.
– Esper may move US troops from Germany to Romania, Baltics, Poland.
– New book by CNN reporter says Pentagon withheld military options from Trump.
– Fred Kaplan has a good piece on Hiroshima,
AEI’s Norm Ornstein laments changes in the GOP over the decades.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 24
– Politico lists 8 things that could doom the November elections
– Trump says he may send 75,000 federal agents into the cities.
– China retaliates for Houston closing.
– Steve Walt says Trump has “ruined a superpower”
– I have a piece in Lawfare explaining why Congress never acted to authorize the Korean war.
-Reminder: CRS has timely nonpartisan analysis. It’s now searchable at the Library of Congress site, but FAS lists categories with new items on top. For example, see these new items in national security:
- Border Barrier Litigation: Open Questions for Department of Defense Transfer Authority, CRS Legal Sidebar, July 21, 2020
- Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2020, updated July 20, 2020
- Emerging Military Technologies: Background and Issues for Congress, July 17, 2020
- Military Pay: Key Questions and Answers, updated July 17, 2020
- Emergency Authorities Under the National Emergencies Act, Stafford Act, and Public Health Service Act, updated July 14, 2020
- The International Emergency Economic Powers Act: Origins, Evolution, and Use, updated July 14, 2020
- The International Emergency Economic Powers Act: Key Facts, updated July 10, 2020
- U.S. Military Presence in Poland, CRS In Focus, updated July 2, 2020
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 3
– Several former military commanders are criticizing the president’s comments and photo op. Former CJCS ADM Mike Mullen among them. Many also criticize the SecDef and current CJCS.
– NYT has a detailed tick tock of the photo op event.
– Esper says he didn’t know. [But he did talk about dominating the “battlespace” with governors]
– Military.com lists the units in DC area.
In other news, Duterte has changed his mind on US military cooperation.
China is slowing grain purchases.
Russia changes its nuclear policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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