Category: Uncategorized
Serious questions
There is nothing magical about 100,000 dead. It is just like the number 101,239, which no doubt America has now also crossed. Whichever number is attached to your death, your relatives will mourn, your friends will grieve, your colleagues and acquaintances will miss your presence. But for those of us more removed, our minds anchor on round numbers as milestones. They give us pause. They provide an opportunity to reflect. And they make us wonder where we are headed.
Not, however, if you are Donald Trump. He instead tried to distract attention with false allegations about a TV news anchor and false claims about fraud associated with voting by mail. Forty per cent of Americans like this mendacious approach to governance–they remain loyal no matter what. They know that black and brown people are dying from Covid-19 more often than white ones. They know cities have been harder hit than rural areas. They figure voting by mail will help Democrats more than Republicans.
Their comfort will be short-lived. Covid-19 is headed into rural areas and Red states. White people, especially older Trump-supporting males, will soon be dying in more proportional numbers. The economy may show positive numbers in coming months, but we are in a deep trough and odds are strong we’ll be nowhere near the early 2020 peak before election day November 3. President Trump will end his first term with a year of recession behind him.
My friends are concerned that Joe Biden is not doing enough to defeat Trump. I beg to differ. It seems to me that letting Trump hang himself has been an effective part of Biden’s strategy. I don’t really care what the polls say this far out, but when a President is underwater in approval about five months before Election Day, he is in trouble. Most presidents in the past would have reached out to moderates, independents, and potential cross-overs. Not Donald Trump: he is instead trying to corner the mostly white, mostly male, racist vote. He retweets “the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat” and then tweets “When the looting starts, the shooting starts.” Even for Twitter, this was too much and they labelled it as glorifying violence.
Let me be clear: I don’t like the violence in Minneapolis and its political impact could be disastrous. Law and order candidate Richard Nixon in 1968 benefited greatly from disorder. The threat of violence may be an important political factor in favor of those who wield it. But the fact of violence limits popular support and turns off a lot of people. Nonviolent discipline is a vital ingredient in popular uprisings.
Trump has gotten away with incitement to violence his entire life. He is not going to change now. He is going to run a divisive campaign while Biden tries to run a dignified and welcoming one. The only real question is which the Americans prefer. There is no real doubt about the numerical majority: the popular vote will go for Biden, by millions. But American elections are decided in the Electoral College, which gives mostly white rural America grossly disproportionate weight. Two out of the last three Republican presidents were elected without a majority of the popular vote. One more of those would raise serious questions about the sustainability of American democracy.
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Stevenson’s army, May 26
– FT says Australia is launching a soft power offensive to counter China.
– To help out, SecState Pompeo threatens to cut off intelligence sharing with Australia.
– No wonder Dan Drezner dumps on Pompeo
– Meanwhile, China announced its defense budget.
– FP doubts US effort to replace China on rare earths will work.
– FP also calls the US-China trade deal dead.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Reopening
One thing we know for sure: reopening will not go smoothly. Covid-19 has re-surged in countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Germany that have managed the virus relatively well. China too has faced difficulties, despite its draconian methods.
In the United States, the initial approach to managing the virus was erratic and incoherent. The Federal government was often counterproductive. Basically the states took the lead, each in its own way. On the whole, Red states shut down less and are opening up earlier. Blue states shut down more and are opening up later. This is due in part to their different demographic characteristics: most Red states are more rural than most Blue states and saw less of the virus in the first wave.
President Trump has encouraged reopening in spite of Federal guidelines that urged more caution. His stated concern is “the economy,” but premature reopening isn’t going to do much to stem the tsunami of unemployed, 38 million total as of this week, or to get people who have alternatives to go back to work in situations where their health is at risk. It looks as if he is setting himself up for a second wave of infections, including in Red states, sometime around August/September, just as the fall electoral campaign heats up.
Politically, that isn’t the worst outcome I can think of, as I hope Trump is not re-elected. But it is terrible for the country, which has already suffered almost 100,000 people dead and another 50,000 or more likely to die in the next few months. The immediate economic toll is simply gigantic: worse than the financial crisis of 2008 and more or less the dimensions of the the 1930s depression.
Even with reopening, the economy will not be going back to its pre-epidemic state. Lots of businesses are closing permanently. Those that reopen will do so in conditions much less auspicious than before. No restaurant can afford to lose half or more of its tables to the need for social distancing without a big impact on the bottom line. Production facilities likewise face requirements to separate their personnel that will be expensive. Universities will find it hard to conduct in-person classes, many foreign students will find it difficult to get visas to enter the US, and dormitories risk becoming Covid-19 hot spots.
The big economic winners from the epidemic are the giant retailers like Walmart and Amazon that take orders remotely and deliver products rapidly. Small shops, gas stations, non-chain restaurants, mom-and-pop groceries are imploding. Most Federal government aid is going to relatively strong enterprises that know how to fill out forms quickly and have established contacts with lenders. The strong will get relatively stronger, while the weak will close.
President Trump is ignoring the virus this Memorial Day weekend, in favor of golf and the usual visits to military cemeteries. He is also urging reopening of schools. His strategy at this point is to hope Covid-19 goes away. That isn’t likely, and the reopening isn’t going to help.
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Stevenson’s army, April 27
– In Australia and New Zealand, they seem to have vanquished the virus, at least for now.
– Global military spending is surging.
– WaPo says Trump administration has multi-pronged effort to marginalize WHO.
– In effort to force continued sanctions on Iran, US has told JCPOA signatories that US is still legally part of the agreement.
– Jackson Diehl notes that US has a veto over Israeli annexation.
– CDC says Covid-19 is more complex than previously understood. And the number of basic questions is huge.
– Who deserves to be rescued in the shrinking economy? NYT notes that FDR saved artists.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 20
– Foreign powers are testing US defenses, Hill reports.
– Russia seems willing to broaden arms control agenda.
-The domestic politics of fighting the pandemic — in Turkey.
– Asia sees second wave of infections.
– Feel good moment: Atlantic has a bunch of spectacular photos of my home state of Colorado. I felt better seeing them and hope you do, too.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks| April 11- April 18
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
Unpacking the Covid-19 Crisis in Africa | April 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
The confirmed cases and fatalities from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) continue to rise in sub-Saharan Africa, creating dire economic and political challenges. As governments in the region scramble to implement containment strategies, manage the economic fallout, and work through a busy election calendar, how can they minimize long-term negative impacts? The CSIS Africa Program invites you to virtually attend the first event in a series of partnerships with premier research institutions across Africa. Experts from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) and the University of Pretoria join CSIS Africa Program Director, Judd Devermont to discuss the political, economic, and health implications of the coronavirus pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Additional information on speakers will be added closer to the event date.
Speakers:
Dr. Jakkie Cilliers: Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Head of the African Futures and Innovations, Institute for Security Studies
Marius Oosthuizen: Faculty at the Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria
Wafaa El-Sadr: University Professor and Dr. Mathilde Krim-amfAR Chair of Global Health, Columbia University
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
Israeli Democracy at a Crossroads | April 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
After a record-breaking three elections in the span of just one year and several weeks of political maneuvering and intrigue, including a constitutional crisis prompted by an unprecedented suspension of the Knesset, the announcement of a new unity deal between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and opposition figure Benny Gantz appears to have put an end to Israel’s longstanding political stalemate. In doing so however it has also gutted Gantz’s opposition Blue and White faction and alienated the Arab-dominated Joint List while ensuring Netanyahu’s premiership until at least September 2021. Any hope of a return to something resembling normalcy meanwhile remains elusive as Israelis continue to grapple with a ballooning public health crisis sparked by the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has brought social, economic, and political life in Israel to a virtual standstill.
Given these varying challenges, what are the prospects for the new “emergency” government in Israel? What will this new arrangement mean for the political opposition in general and for the Joint List in particular? Moreover, what do these developments mean for the future of Israeli democracy and for Israel’s broader role in the Middle East?
Speakers:
Ari Heistein: Researcher and Chief of Staff to the Director, INSS
Dahlia Scheindlin: Co-founder and columnist, +972 Magazine
The Honorable Aida Touma-Sliman: Member, Knesset (Joint List)
Khaled Elgindy (Moderator): Senior fellow and director of the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Oil Market Mayhem Redux: The market and geopolitical implications of the OPEC+ and G20 negotiations | April 13, 2020 | 1:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
An unprecedented crisis in the oil market is looming. With demand in free-fall, a price war bringing oil prices to multi-decade lows, and a flood of oil supplies overwhelming available storage, a consensus to take action is emerging – but the parties have struggled to agree about what type of action and by whom. As OPEC concludes an extraordinary meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members and Saudi Arabia hosts an emergency meeting of the G20, the intersection of energy markets and geopolitics is shaping how the global community responds to the oil market crisis (and whether it is enough). What emerges from these four days will have a transformative effect on the market long after the coronavirus passes.
As markets digest these moves on Monday, please join the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center for an expert briefing on the details of the OPEC meeting and G20 summit and what those decisions mean for the market, geopolitics, and the future of the oil industry.
Speakers:
Anders Aslund: Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Helima Croft: Managing Director and Global Head of Commodity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
Kristen Fontenrose: Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
David Goldwyn: Chair, Energy Advisory Group, Atlantic Council
Randolph Bell (Moderator): Director, Global Energy Center and Richard Morningstar Chair for Global Energy Security, Atlantic Council
Egypt’s Economy, Citizens, and the Pandemic | April 14, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the Middle East’s most populous country, Egypt’s domestic issues will invariably have significant regional ramifications as the country weathers the COVID-19 pandemic. Both domestic and international trade are likely to suffer, and international supply chains are already being disrupted. The international reverberations will hit some of Egypt’s main revenue streams hard, particularly trade via the Suez Canal, remittances from Egyptians working abroad, and the tourism sector.
While the economy is taking major hits at the macro level, things are likely to be as bad at the micro-level. The government appears to be trying hard to get a handle on both the spread of the virus through mitigation efforts such as early school closures, curfews, and other measures. It has also implemented a raft of economic relief measures in order to reduce pressure both on the market and on individuals, all while pressing as many people to work remotely as possible. However, millions cannot afford to work remotely; over 11 million people work in Egypt’s informal economy, without pensions or contracts and limited access to the country’s overburdened health system.
Given these vast and converging challenges, what does Egypt’s economic future hold?
Speakers:
Angus Blair: CIB Professor of Practice, School of Business, American University in Cairo
Laila Iskandar: Former Minister for Urban Renewal and Informal Settlements, Egypt
Yasser El-Naggar: CEO, EN Investment
Mirette F. Mabrouk (Moderator): Director of Egypt Program, MEI
The GCC’s double dilemma: Tackling COVID-19 and falling oil prices| April 14, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are confronting a sharp downturn in economic activity due to the coronavirus outbreak, as the pandemic wreaks havoc across the global economy. However, unlike in other regions of the world, where the economic downturn is expected to be transient, the corresponding sharp fall in global oil prices presents a longer-term challenge to GCC member states.
GCC governments have announced economic stimulus packages totaling $97 billion to help the private sector absorb the shock of the crisis. They now must ensure that this stimulus is applied effectively to meeting the short-term demands of the coronavirus crisis, while tempering the long-term fallout of the drop in oil prices. GCC countries must also redouble their efforts to diversify their economies and set aside petty political differences and work together to mitigate the societal impact of the dual challenges.
The Brookings Doha Center is pleased to invite you to a webinar discussion on the economic challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic poses for the GCC. The discussion will address the following questions: What are the short- and long-term economic implications of the pandemic for GCC economies? How should GCC governments apply their stimulus packages to counter the adverse impacts of the pandemic and the drop in oil prices? What other policy priorities should GCC governments pursue to ameliorate the societal impact of the COVID-19 crisis?
Speakers:
Samantha Gross: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative
Hatim Al Shanfari: Professor of Economics and Finance, Sultan Qaboos University
Nasser Saidi: Founder and President, Nasser Saidi & Associates, Former Lebanese Minister of Economy
Nader Kabbani (Moderator): Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center; Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development
Navigating Iraq’s Political and Economic Turbulence amid Pandemic | April 15, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
A perfect storm has hit Iraq: the Covid-19 virus is spreading throughout the country and overwhelming its healthcare system, a precipitous decline in oil prices is threatening the livelihoods of millions of Iraqis, increasing U.S.-Iran tensions are playing out on Iraqi territory, and a political crisis has stalled the process of government formation for months. On top of all that, millions of Iraqis remain displaced, ISIS still constitutes a major security threat, and pro-Iran militias are increasingly fragmenting, as different groups outbid each other over their loyalty to Tehran and their ability to target the U.S. presence in Iraq. On April 9, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi was named as prime minister designate, the third person to be appointed to the job since Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation last November. He now has 30 days to form a government, a task his two predecessors failed to complete, although he appears to have more support across the Iraqi political spectrum and better chances at success than they did. Faced with these myriad socioeconomic, political, and security challenges, can Iraq maintain its tenuous balance? Will Mr. Al Kadhimi succeed in forming a government? What are the potential short- and medium-term economic scenarios for Iraq in light of the oil price war and decreasing global demand? What is the future of the U.S.-Iraq strategic relationship?
Speakers:
Farhad Alaaldin: Chairman, Iraq Advisory Council (IAC)
Hafsa Halawa: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Yesar Al-Maleki: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Mohammad Radhi Al-Shummary: Professor, Al-Nahrain University
Randa Slim (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
On the Front Lines: How Public Health Systems are Confronting the Covid 19 Crisis in the Middle East | April 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
COVID-19 has the potential to push public healthcare systems in the Middle East past their current capabilities.The number of coronavirus cases in the Middle East has risen to nearly 60,000, double the amount only a week ago. How will this current pandemic impact the region’s health care systems and preparedness for future crises? The Middle East Institute (MEI) will bring together a panel of experts to look beyond the immediate impact of COVID-19 on public healthcare systems in the Middle East. This group of experts will discuss the long term effects on the region’s public health systems and if this will cause them to become more resilient in the face of future threats.
What will this current crisis mean for the future of the region’s health care systems? What steps should public health services be taking now to ensure they will be better prepared for the next pandemic? What is the role of international organizations like the World Health Organization to help regional public health services build resilience into their systems?
Speakers:
Amir Afkhami: Associate professor, George Washington University
Amira Roses: Professor of global health and epidemiology, George Mason University
Ross Harrison (Moderator): Senior fellow, MEI
COVID-19 and Conflicts in the Arab World: A Closer Look at Libya, Syria, and Yemen during the Coronavirus Pandemic| April 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in areas of conflict and war-affected and refugee populations in the Arab world, specifically focusing on Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
Speakers:
Noha Aboueldahab: Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Yara M. Asi: Lecturer of Health Management and Informatics, University of Central Florida
Joost Hiltermann: Program Director, Middle East and North Africa, International Crisis Group
Afrah Nasser: Yemen Researcher, Human Rights Watch
Tamara Kharroub (Moderator): Assistant Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
The Middle East in an Era of Great Power Competition: A Conversation with Barry Posen and Stephen Walt | April 16, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Of all the internal obstacles and external challenges the United States is likely to face in its pursuit of its new foreign policy priority of great power competition, the Middle East might prove to be the biggest. If the region continues to command U.S. attention and resources, Washington will struggle in its efforts to effectively pivot and counter Chinese and Russian ambitions in Asia and Europe, respectively.
How does or should the Middle East fit in America’s new grand strategy? Does the great power competition necessitate an entirely new U.S. approach toward the Middle East? Which U.S. approach best serves Washington’s new global plans?
To answer these questions and many others, the Middle East Institute (MEI) is honored to host a conversation with Professor Barry Posen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Professor Stephen Walt from Harvard University.
Speakers:
Barry Posen: Ford international professor of political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stephen M. Walt: Professor of international affairs, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government
Bilal Saab (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, defense and security program, MEI
Displacement During COVID-19: an Urgent Humanitarian Imperative | April 17, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As COVID-19 continues to devastate global economies and health systems with no end in sight, refugees and IDPs are among the world’s most vulnerable communities. Already facing tremendous challenges including loss of livelihoods, lack of citizenship, psychological trauma, and discrimination, displaced people in the Middle East must now contend with the pandemic and its devastation on the already-strained healthcare systems and economies of their host countries. Refugees are particularly susceptible to illnesses like COVID due to overcrowding in refugee camps, lack of proper sanitation, food, and water resources, and unprotected movement across borders. Meanwhile, the region’s conflicts, outbreaks of violence, and occupation continue, providing little relief in the most fragile environments.
How are refugees in the Middle East withstanding the virus in countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan? How does the impact of the virus expose existing fragilities in and create new challenges for the region’s healthcare services, particularly for refugee camps, which suffer from overcrowding and lack of proper sanitation? What are the new imperatives for governments and international organizations to provide assistance where it is needed most?
Speakers:
Kieren Barnes: Syrian Country Director, Mercy Corps
Aya Majzoub: Lebanon and Bahrain researcher, Human Rights Watch
Dr. Zaher Sahloul: President and founder, MedGlobal
Randa Slim (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues program, MEI
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