Category: Uncategorized

Talk should focus on the possible

Posted in Uncategorized - June 26, 2024 - 2 Comments

Here are the remarks I prepared for today’s panel in Pristina, Kosovo on “The Future of the Dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia: the possibilities for new dynamics in the process and the impact of new US and EU elections.” The Group for Legal and Political Studies sponsored the event.

  1. Here in Pristina I face a great challenge. I need to say something sensible about the Dialogue in front of people here in Pristina who have spent years observing it and engaging in it.
  2. Fellow panelist Sonja Biserko is also closer to the Dialogue than I am. She has been observing the political moods in Belgrade since before my first trip to Kosovo in 1998, as war was brewing.
  3. Anything I say will be from a more distant, professorial perspective.
  4. That perspective tells me there is no better alternative than a peaceful and friendly relationship between Belgrade and Pristina.
  5. When I said this to Kosovo Albanian friends during and soon after the war they laughed grimly. They said they would never want to talk with Belgrade again.
  6. But it soon became clear that Serbia was Kosovo’s biggest security threat, an important factor in its economy, and a major influence on its Serb population.
  7. Not to mention its influence on other countries, which has prevented universal recognition of Kosovo independence.
  8. Neighbors don’t have the privilege of ignoring their neighbors if they want security, prosperity, the loyalty of their minority populations, and international recognition.
  9. I participated in the first training for talks with Belgrade around 2004, for the Provisional Institutions of Self-Government. Bajram Rexhepi, then Prime Minister of the provisional institutions, was a participant, along with several other ministers and directors general. Maybe some of you were there.
  10. I soon after helped to train Serbian foreign service officers for their engagement with Kosovo.
  11. But quite rightly the international community decided that independence needed to come first. And so it did, as Martti Ahtisaari recommended, along with his EU and American collaborators.
  12. Then of course there was the need to ensure implementation of the Ahtisaari plan, a process that the International Civilian Office supervised well.
  13. So it was 2011 before the dialogue with Belgrade officially began. This was the technical dialogue, which Edita Tahiri and Borko Stefanovic led.
  14. The goal of the technical dialogue was to improve the lives of people in both countries.
  15. It produced a lot of agreements by 2013, many of which were not fully implemented in the timeframes foreseen.
  16. These included agreements on civil registry books, cadastral records, freedom of movement, recognition of diplomas, custom stamps and duties, regional representation, telecommunications, and energy.
  17. In 2013, the participants raised the level of the dialogue and set a new goal: political normalization.
  18. This political dialogue resulted in the 2013 Brussels agreement, which famously included the Association of Serb Municipalities.
  19. But the Association was not a standalone, unilateral proposition.
  20. Kosovo agreed to create it in exchange for Serb participation in Kosovo’s institutions, especially municipal elections, the police and judiciary, as well as non-interference by either side in the other’s progress toward the EU.
  21. Since 2013 there has been some progress on implementing the technical agreements. But there has been virtually none in meeting the goal of political normalization. I would even say that Belgrade has reversed some progress.
  22. It has reneged on all the 2013 commitments. It has maintained de facto governance over the Serb population in the Serb-majority communities of northern Kosovo. Serbia organized the boycott of municipal elections there. Belgrade has withdrawn Serb officials from the police and courts. And Serbia has done everything it could to block and reverse recognition of Kosovo and its entry into the Council of Europe.
  23. Pristina has done nothing to implement its commitment to create the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities.
  24. For the past three years, Gabe Escobar and Miroslav Lajcak have tried to pressure Pristina into creating the Association, with no success. That should not be surprising, as the agreement to create it included obligations for Belgrade as well.
  25. Instead of fulfilling those, Serbia has chosen to make things worse, through purposeful violence. Last year it kidnapped two Kosovo police from Kosovo territory, rented a mob to attack NATO peacekeepers inside Kosovo, and organized a terrorist attack that was supposed to provide the excuse for a Serbian military intervention.
  26. Most recently, Belgrade has torpedoed the proposal to re-call the non-Serb mayors in the north and conduct new elections.
  27. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the technical dialogue was far more productive than the political one.
  28. I have to ask: why is this the case?
  29. Belgrade, it seems to me, is not ready for political normalization. By the end of last year, President Vucic was expressing his hope for changed geopolitical conditions that would enable Serbia to retake part or all of Kosovo. The newly inaugurated Serbian government includes vocal supporters of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It also includes the leading advocate of the “Serbian world,” a euphemism for Greater Serbia.
  30. President Vucic has de facto achieved the Serbian world in half of Bosnia and in all of Montenegro. Why wouldn’t he want to extend that success at least to northern Kosovo?
  31. I am not convinced that Pristina is ready for political normalization either.
  32. Albanian Kosovars first want to hear that Serbia regrets what Slobodan Milosevic did in 1998 and 1999. They want to see Belgrade encourage Kosovo Serbs to look to Pristina for governance, including law and order. Pristina wants Belgrade to be ready to give Albanians in southern Serbia comparable privileges and representation to those Serbia enjoys inside Kosovo for Serbs.
  33. I suppose if Belgrade were to fulfill its obligations under the 2013 agreement Pristina would too. But that isn’t going to happen.
  34. EU and US policy needs a reset. While I don’t expect diplomats to admit it, they need to return to a more practical, less political, dialogue. Political normalization is a bridge too far. Serbia won’t be interested in surrendering its sovereignty claims until the war in Ukraine ends the Russian annexations there. Kosovo won’t be interested in forming the Association until it is confident that Serbia accepts its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
  35. But both Belgrade and Pristina can welcome smoothing movement of people, goods, and finance through their mutual border and enabling more licit trade, investment, and commerce.
  36. Pristina has rightly begun to insist on the use of its official currency, the euro, in transactions in Kosovo. But that is creating problems for the Serb communities, which receive subsidies from Belgrade for health and education—and likely other things as well—in Serbian dinars.
  37. This is the kind of practical issue the EU and US should focus on. Belgrade and Pristina need to agree on transparency for Serbia’s subsidies and a scheme for how they can proceed smoothly.
  38. Both Belgrade and Pristina should be interested in a serious crackdown on organized crime that exploits the lack of law and order in northern Kosovo.
  39. Now would be a good time for Belgrade to ensure that Milan Radoicic pays for his crimes and is unable to recover politically. Serbia should turn him over to Kosovo for trial. No doubt Serbia could name some Albanian candidates for similar treatment.
  40. Another issue I’d like to see discussed in the Dialogue is Belgrade’s intimidation of Kosovo Serbs who join the Kosovo Security Force or police. It is high time to put an end to the threats and violence that they and their families suffer at the hands of Belgrade’s proxies.
  41. That is the practical direction in which prospects for success lie. Saying farewell to failure requires getting the priorities right.
  42. Political normalization will come when Pristina and Belgrade are ready for it. My guess is that Belgrade will be first, because its EU accession will depend on recognition of Kosovo.
  43. More than one of the 27 member states of the EU will insist on it, even if the member states do not adopt it as EU policy.
  44. In the meantime, the Dialogue should focus on practical problems that can be solved in practical ways. It is a mistake to require politicians to do more than they are ready to do.
  45. That’s my professorial take.

I added a few extemporaneous remarks about the US election:

  • The good thing about American elections is that we know the outcome only after we count the votes.
  • Our 18th-century constitution makes predictions difficult, because of close races in a few battleground states.
  • A Biden election will lead to continuity in defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all Western Balkan states.
  • A Trump election will lead to surrender of Ukraine to Russia, unqualified support for Israel’s war on Gaza, and doubts about US commitment to NATO and Asian allies.
  • And it will lead to revival of partition ideas in the Western Balkans, with catastrophic consequences.
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Getting to post-Dayton Bosnia

Posted in Daniel Serwer, Uncategorized - June 20, 2024 - 2 Comments

Here are the talking points I prepared for myself for today’s conference in Sarajevo on The Biden Administration’s Bosnia Policy: 30 Years of Federation of BiH sponsored by the US-Europe Alliance and the International University of Sarajevo:

  1. It is a great pleasure to be back in Sarajevo, truly one of the most beautiful and welcoming cities on earth.
  2. A great deal has changed since I first came here in November 1994, during the war, and even since I was here five or six years ago.
  3. I was the US embassy’s most frequent visitor during the war.
  4. The streets then were empty of both cars and people, the city was divided and isolated from its so-called suburbs, shelling was frequent, most shops were closed, heat and electricity were at best sporadic, telephones had stopped working, civilians needed to learn where they could walk without being targeted by snipers. Thousands of civilians were killed.
  5. Small arms fire hit my UN plane while landing the first time I came to Sarajevo.
  6. Things have changed a great deal. My compliments to those who have made it happen.
  7. I find Sarajevo much enlivened, younger, and more cosmopolitan. It is good that so many tourists are making their way here, that you have a Sarajevo School of Science and Technology that grants British as well as Bosnian degrees, that the Vijecnica is restored and occupied by a young woman who has more experience as a university professor than as a politician.
  8. But it is also true that the Dayton agreements froze the warring parties in place by institutionalizing the political divisions among Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats.
  9. Each group has a veto on almost everything at the state level and in the Federation.
  10. Dayton also reduced the role of people who refused to identify themselves with one of the three major groups, preferring to think of themselves as individuals with inalienable rights.
  11. I believe it is high time to correct those mistakes.
  12. The two entities are the warring parties of 1995. One is now threatening secession. The other is threatened with division by those who want a third entity.
  13. These objectives are ethnic war by political means. That is better than war by military means, but it is still not the best option available.
  14. You will later in this conference discuss the legal strategy aimed at reforming Dayton Bosnia, which has been notably successful at the European Court of Human Rights but remains largely unimplemented, due to the ethnic nationalist vetoes.
  15. That however should not be the only strategy aimed at making Bosnia a more functional and effective state.
  16. Others may talk today about economic strategies. Any Bosnian enterprise with ambition should be unhappy with today’s Dayton Bosnia.
  17. A serious company should want a more unified economic space with improved relations with the rest of the world, especially Europe but also the United States.
  18. But I want to focus mainly on political reforms, which I think are needed in two dimensions.
  19. One is reform within Bosnia’s political parties, which are largely fiefdoms of the party leaders.
  20. More competitive contests for party leadership would open up the existing political parties, enable them to have more policy and programmatic focus, and reduce the dominance of the political parties within the Bosnian state.
  21. Political party reform would also reduce the risks of state capture by people exploiting public resources and patronage. And it would reduce the risks that state investigations of corruption would be blocked.
  22. The second dimension of needed political reform is cross-ethnic cooperation.
  23. This is not entirely lacking. Croat and Serb ethnic nationalists cooperate quite well these days, as they did in southern Bosnia during the war.
  24. What is needed is creation of a more civic-oriented multiethnic coalition, one that would reinforce the legal strategy that has produced good results at the ECHR.
  25. Such a civic coalition would focus on improving governance, not only at the national level but also in the municipalities.
  26. That is where citizens and government interact most frequently. A coalition that proves it can meet citizen demands at the municipal level will have a much greater chance of winning at other levels.
  27. Despite my wartime role as Mr. Federation, I am no longer a friend to the entities or the cantons. It seems to me Bosnia and Herzegovina could be more effectively governed at the municipal level and at the state level.
  28. The state government should have full authority to negotiate and implement the EU’s acquis communautaire.
  29. The municipalities, in accordance with the European principle of subsidiarity, should have responsibility for everything else.
  30. It is not clear to me how you get to that kind of post-Dayton Bosnia from where things stand now.
  31. It will take political courage and smart strategy, beginning with redefinition of Bosnians as citizens rather than ethnic groups.
  32. Yes, you are correct in thinking that the Americans imposed the Dayton system on Bosnia. Some of you will want to fix what we broke.
  33. But we imposed what the wartime leadership said they would accept.
  34. Twenty-nine years later neither the Americans nor the Europeans have the clout to change the system.
  35. Nor do they have the incentive to do so. Many fear instability and some have confidence in the transformational power of the EU.
  36. It is now up to Bosnians to change the political system. There are good legal, political, and economic reasons to do so.
  37. The simple fact is that Dayton Bosnia will not be able to join the European Union or NATO.
  38. Many in the current political leadership know that but don’t mind. They fear their own political and economic fortunes would end in a Bosnia with strong judicial, legislative, and executive institutions.
  39. It is Bosnia’s citizens who are going to have to do the heavy lifting.
  40. The Americans and European should be prepared to help.
  41. The Americans tried with European support in 2006 when they supported the negotiation of what became known as the April package.
  42. That failed to get a 2/3 majority in parliament by just two votes.
  43. The EU tried more recently with American support through the Citizens’ Assembly, municipal versions of which have also convened in Banja Luka and Mostar.
  44. Much more of this kind of effort is needed to build a cross-ethnic constituency for peace.
  45. Let me turn now to the hard part. I regret to say Bosnia also needs to be ready for war, in order to prevent it.
  46. Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Vucic have made their intentions clear. They are creating a de facto Serbian world that would remove Republika Srpska from any oversight by Bosnian institutions.
  47. This is a clever scheme, with each step kept below the level at which it might stimulate a negative European or American reaction.
  48. Nor would I rule out a military dimension to the Serb strategy like the attempt at Banjska in Kosovo last September. That would be a provocation intended to provoke a reaction that enables Republika Srpska or Serbia to justify intervention.
  49. The Bosnian Army, EUFOR and NATO also need to be ready for what we call in Washington “little green men” used to infest Brcko in a kind of stealth takeover.
  50. Only if Dodik and Vucic understand that there will be a rapid and effective US and EU military reaction can we be sure they won’t try these Moscow-inspired gimmicks.
  51. Preserving the peace requires both military strength and political reform. Getting beyond the Dayton state in Bosnia will require commitment and inspiration.
  52. Bosnia has come a long way in the past 29 years. But it still has a way to go before it is a normal democratic country, one without a High Representative, one whose unity and territorial integrity citizens of all ethnicities defend, and one in which individual rights are protected for everyone.
  53. I am not suggesting something less than what I myself want. I would never trade my individual rights—protected by the judicial, legislative, and executive branches—for group rights.
  54. I wish you well undertaking the worthy effort of creating a post-Dayton, civic Bosnia. One that can join the European Union and NATO without looking back!
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The real threat to Israel is…

Posted in Uncategorized - June 17, 2024 - 2 Comments

One of my sharpest readers questions, “do you seriously believe that Hamas can destroy the state of Israel?” I had cited that concern to account for Israeli policy in Gaza.

The answer is “no,” I don’t. But I do think it useful to acknowledge that concern in accounting for what the Israelis are doing. A state can justify almost anything if it can convince its population that its enemies are ready to destroy it. Hamas and its enablers in Tehran have said that is their objective. Those threats and Hamas’ homicidal behavior on October 7 have fed Israeli indifference, and even support, for the human rights abuses occurring in Gaza today.

The multi-front war

That behavior is generating a far greater threat to Israel than the October 7 attack. The West Bank is boiling. Yemeni Houthi and Lebanese Hizbollah attacks are escalating. Iran is enriching more uranium to close to weapon-usable levels. Israel’s international isolation is growing. The Gaza war has lasted already much longer than the Israelis anticipated. Does the Israeli Defense Force really want to fight on two or more fronts for the next six months or so?

Things are no better for Israel in the US. Prime Minister Netanyahu may imagine that the shift of Muslim votes away from President Biden will bring his favored candidate to power in Washington. But Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to the US will no doubt give American Muslims pause. The Republicans in Congress will rain praise on the Prime Minister. Some Democrats will not attend or walk out. Trump will have no compunction about supporting Israeli abuses in Gaza. The Christian evangelicals will back him. But liberal Jews, who are the majority in the US, will not. I hope Muslims will join them in voting for Biden.

The alternatives

What is the alternative for Israel? Jerusalem (that really is Israel’s capital, even if I would have preferred Trump not move the US embassy there until a final settlement) could announce that it is pausing the fighting and injecting massive humanitarian assistance into Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces have announced a temporary suspension along one vital route. That is a step in the right direction, but far from sufficient. Israel needs to put the onus on Hamas to also stop its attacks. A massive flow of aid would give Gazans an opportunity to loosen Hamas’ grasp and begin to determine their own fate.

Jerusalem could in addition seek a settlement on Israel’s northern border, one that ends the ti-for-tat bombardments and returns the area to relative calm. Rather than escalating to re-establish deterrence, as is their habit, the Israelis could do what they did with Iran: reduce their retaliation. This would signal to Hizbollah readiness to accept a return to the status quo ante. US envoy Amos Hochstein is seeking to calm things on the Israel/Lebanon border. Let’s wish him success.

It is much harder to know what to do about the Houthis. They seem determined to assert their role in “the resistance.” They are using Iran’s military technology to attack both shipping in the Red Sea and Israel, with relatively little effect on military targets but considerable damage to commercial shipping and world markets. The Houthi menace, and it is a menace, is likely to outlast both the Hamas and Hizbollah threats.

As for the American front, support for Israel is rapidly becoming a partisan issue, with part of the Democratic Party doubtful about unconditional assistance. This is entirely out of keeping with past practice and not good for Israel, which needs a Prime Minister who can speak to Congress without anyone walking out.

The real threat

The real threat to Israel is Netanyahu and his determination to continue the Gaza war until he can declare victory and stave off any challenge to his hold on power. Israelis are unhappy with him because of the government’s failure on October 7 to protect its citizens. They need to begin to realize that his policies toward the Palestinians are just as disgraceful. In addition, they aggravate the Hamas, Hizbollah, and Houthi threats.

Unfortunately, no replacement prime minister on the horizon today seems willing or able to lead Israelis in the direction of resolving the conflict with the Palestinians. Nor do the citizens seem ready to support anyone who does. At this point, Israel is more a threat to itself than is Hamas.

Good news, finally, but unlikely to last

Posted in Uncategorized - April 21, 2024 - 0 Comment

Bits of good news all around. The US House of Representatives, after months of allowing a small number of dissenting Republicans to block vital expanded aid to Ukraine (as well as infusions for Israel and Taiwan), has now approved it. Israel has retaliated against Iran for last weekend’s massive barrage of missiles and drones. It managed to do so without provoking any further escalation. And on a much lesser scale of geopolitics, the Council of Europe appears to be readying itself to admit Kosovo as a member.

Better late than never

All of this is good news, even if much delayed.

The Congress should never have allowed its Russophile right-wingers to put Ukraine’s existence at risk. It is appalling that someone could become Speaker who required months of cajoling to recognize the importance of getting more assistance to Kyiv. Last year’s Russian dominance in the war of attrition has done real damage, not only to Ukrainian morale.

We can hope that the US will now send Ukraine everything it needs. The aim should be not only to resist Russian advances but also to roll back Moscow’s recent gains and the threat they now poses to Kharkiv. Ukrainian F-16s should arrive this summer. A big Ukrainian push with the right weapons could force Russian retreats in Donbas, the south, and even Crimea.

Israel needs to do more

Israel has been rampaging in Gaza as if it had nothing to fear. The Iranian attack, though a failure, is hopefully a reminder to Jerusalem that self-restraint and diplomacy can be virtues, not weaknesses. The Israelis need now to resuscitate the talks with Hamas and reach an agreement, however unsatisfactory, for the release of at least the civilian hostages.

They also need to get rid of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has repeatedly endangered Israeli security. His encouragement of US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, his financial and political support for Hamas, his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state, and the deplorable intelligence and military failures of October 7 qualify him as the worst Israeli prime minister, not just the longest-serving.

Serbia’s spite is shameful

The Council of Europe has dawdled far too long in approving Kosovo for membership. It is far more qualified than its principal opponent, Serbia. And allowing Kosovo in will give Serbs who live there a new and potentially fruitful avenue to pursue complaints, through the European Court of Human Rights.

The spitefulness of Belgrade’s opposition, which directly contradicts an agreement the European Union claims Serbia adhered to in February, may be expected, but it is still deplorable. Kosovo is demonstrably better qualified for CoE membership than Serbia.

Can we hope for more?

Good news is particularly welcome when it is a harbinger of more. Some may hope that the voting in Congress augurs a less polarized political atmosphere in which moderate Democrats and Republicans can cooperate to neutralize the nutty MAGAites. But I see little hope of that. Speaker Johnson will now face an effort to remove him. If he wins, the MAGAites will be embittered and he will be more cautious in the future. If he loses, we could face a truly dire situation, as then he would have to be replaced with an even more convinced MAGAite.

In the Middle East, Netanyahu still seems firmly in power. Though his margin in the Knesset is narrow, his allies stand no chance of remaining in power if he falls. He himself could end up in prison on corruption charges. Netanyahu is not going to be easy to displace. Let’s hope the civilians in Rafah won’t pay the price of keeping him in the prime ministry.

In the Balkans, Belgrade may lose the battle to keep Pristina out of the Council of Europe. But that is a minor skirmish in Kosovo’s effort to gain full international recognition. There is no sign of progress on UN membership. EU membership is far off. NATO will have to be the next major battle. Fortunately that excludes Serbia from having a veto or even a vote. But Hungary and now Slovakia will more than likely be prepared to do Belgrade’s dirty work.

A long road ahead

Those of us looking for a Ukrainian military victory, a Palestinian state that will live in peace with Israel, and UN membership for Kosovo still have a long wait ahead. But every step in the right direction today is one that doesn’t have to be taken tomorrow.

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Europe isn’t going to be whole and free

Posted in Uncategorized - February 1, 2024 - 0 Comment

Jim O’Brien, the fairly still new Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, spoke last week at the German Marshall Fund. Focused mainly on Ukraine, he said little about the Balkans. That already tells you a lot. The Balkan region is not a priority in Washington. When he did address the Balkans (he starts a bit before 23 minutes), he highlighted economic issues. That tells you more. Jim doubts the political issues can be resolved at present. He was a devotee of the failed Open Balkans program, which proposed a economy-led approach to regional reform. But Serbia dominated it, so Kosovo opted out. It accomplished little or nothing.

Reform v stability

Heather Conley pushed Jim back to the Balkans in the 39th minute, asking him about the balance between stability and reform in regard to the Serbian elections last December 17. Jim tries to cop out on the Belgrade election, as OSCE did not officially observe it. But the facts are well known. The national government bused in thousands of voters from Bosnia to vote in Belgrade, as it feared a defeat there. Even so, it did not gain 50% of the seats in the city council. Who will govern there is still uncertain.

Jim treats the outcome as a sign of reform rather than fraud. That is one more disturbing instance of American appeasement of Serbian President Vucic.

He then reverts to his preference for an economy-led policy, explicitly based on Belgrade’s performance in attracting foreign investment. He hopes the other leaders in the region will emulate that. But Serbia’s FDI performance has stagnated in recent years, as Belgrade has turned away from foreign policy alignment with its main sources in Europe and the US. Vucic is supporting Russia in Ukraine and sucking up to China, claiming to stay “neutral” while wining and dining with Lukashenko, Aliyev, and Orban. West European and American companies rightly wonder whether they will be treated correctly. That is especially true as your rule of law scores decline.

Political as well as economic reform for stability

The right approach is reform with stability. Serbia’s instability in recent years is associated with President Vucic’s refusal to reform. This has led to massive anti-violence, anti-corruption, and pro-environment demonstrations against the government. It is unlikely there will be stability until at least some of these opposition demands are met.

The notion that Vucic can ride out the wave of protests and impose stabiity using increasingly autocratic measures is unconvincing. It is also not something the US should support. Nor will his now constant saber-rattling toward Kosovo help. Washington and Brussels should articulate a policy that calls for real reform, political as well as economic. Their parliamentarians are already doing so. The executive branches should follow their lead.

One important but long-neglecteed area of reform is military expenditure. Serbia has been conducting a massive military buildup, including drones, air defenses, and a few Humvees to keep the Americans quiet:

The only reason for such rearmament is to bully Kosovo and other neighbors. None of them threaten Serbia, which however is anxious to control the Serb populations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo. The effort to do this goes by the moniker “the Serbian world.” Washington and Brussels should tell Belgrade the Serbian world is anathema and the military buildup should stop.

There is a pro-EU Serbian opposition

The Serbian political opposition did better in the parliamentary election than might be expected. The electoral environment was free but blatantly and decidedly unfair. Nevertheless the opposition won one-quarter of the seats in Parliament. It is not an opposition strong enough to buck Serbian policy on Kosovo. To the contrary, many of its stalwarts try to stake out more nationalist and irredentist positions than the government.

But it is mostly a pro-EU opposition that is more unified than at times in the past. If it ever comes even close to power, it will need to re-evaluate how its own fate relates to Kosovo’s. The inevitable conclusion is that EU membership depends on serious good neighborly relations and eventual formal recognition. Nothing less will get Serbia into the EU. They know it but can’t say it, or do anything about it, now.

So what is to be done?

One of Jim’s themes throughout is supporting responsible politicians to deliver benefits to citizens. That is not what President Vucic is doing. He has gotten Brussels and Washington to buy stability with little, if any, reform that really benefits citizens. The situation is even worse in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There Washington and Brussels have made the mistake of supporting Croat politicians who are unwilling to produce any serious reform or benefits to citizens.

If there is one politician who has demonstrated serious commitment to reform in the Balkans today, it is Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti. Brussels has levied “consequences” against him for daring to keep professionally behaving police and legitimately elected mayors in place in northern Kosovo. It is true that he has also hesitated to implement the agreed Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. That is a price that should be paid at the end of the dialogue process, with formal diplomatic recognition, not now.

Jim is right that the main political issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity cannot be resolved in the way the US wants now. I don’t mind his “benefits to citizens” approach. It makes sense to focus on relatively technical issues and full implementation of past agreements, like the ones on license plates and state documents, between Kosovo and Serbia.

It makes no sense to imagine that Serbia under Vucic will want to do more. Or that the Balkans will be part of Europe whole and free any time soon. For now, the line between East and West will run through the Balkans, with Serbia and Republika Srpska on the eastern side of it, along with Belarus. It is Serbia’s right to choose. It has done so. We need to accept and respect its choice.

These two look happy, don’t they?

Posted in Daniel Serwer, Uncategorized - January 29, 2024 - 0 Comment

That of course is EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak on the left and Serbian President Vucic on the right. Accompanying this photo, Lajcak wrote:

Arriving in Belgrade this morning, I met with @predsednikrs @avucic. In our discussion, we focused on the strategic outlook for 2024, took stock on the state of play in the Dialogue and spoke about the next steps in the normalisation of relations with Kosovo.

Despite Lajcak’s effort to portray the meeting in neutral terms, there are good reasons for the grim looks.

The tilt is definitively eastward

Vucic is increasingly alienated from the West the Europeans want him to embrace. Just in the last few months, he has

  1. Sponsored a terrorist attack inside Kosovo intended to spark a response that would allow him to move his military into his neighbor’s north.
  2. Mobilized the Serbian army for that purpose.
  3. Conducted a fraudulent election in Belgrade, importing thousands of voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  4. Aligned Serbia increasingly with the strongmen not only of Russia and China but also Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Hungary.
  5. Increasingly supported the secessionist ambitions of Milorad Dodik, the strongman of the Serb-majority 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

So far as I am aware, the only tidbits Vucic has offered the West are acceptance of Kosovo documents and license plates in Serbia and steps towards payment by Serbs in Kosovo of their electricity bills. I doubt however many Kosovo Albanians will risking their windshields to drive into Serbia with Kosovo plates. We’ll surely need to wait a while before the bills are paid.

What Lajcak should be saying

So what should Lajcak be saying to Vucic once the cameras are out of the room? @ivanastradner gives us part of the answer with this tweet about the UK specialy envoy for the Balkans:

Special envoy to the Western Balkans sent crystal clear messages: 1. Serbia should impose sanctions on Russia. 2. Serbia should investigate elections irregularities. 3. Republika Srpska cannot be an independent state.

telegram channels are so upset…

But that would not suffice. The Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia will have little impact. I would stop asking for them. Belgrade hardly needs to investigate the election irregularities. It needs to rerun the elections. The EU needs to make it clear that Brussels will suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade in response to any future mobilization of the Serbian Army against Kosovo. Belgrade should surrender the avowed ring leader of the September 24 attack to the Kosovo authorities for trial. Brussels require that Vucic publicly renounce the Russian-sponsored, irredentist “Serbian world” program that has endangered the sovereignty and territoriality of Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia.

https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1751450967504039968/photo/1
The Americans should be chiming in

Washington is in part responsible for the appeasement the EU has undertaken in respone to Belgrade’s defection. It needs to change its tune, in public as well as in private. In addition to pushing on the points above, the US should put its money where its mouth is. There should be no more World Bank money or other multilateral financial assistance for Serbia until it accepts in both word and deed the February and March agreements that both the EU and US claim are legally binding.

The Americans should also revivify their own relations with Pristina and try to bend the EU back into a friendlier relationship with Pristina. The “consequences” Brussels levied on Kosovo last year because of lack of progress in the dialogue with Belgrade were always unjustiably one-sided. Now they look ridiculous. The police the EU wanted withdrawn from Kosovo prevented a disastrous outcome last September 24 when they responded effectively and professionally to the terrorist attack Belgrade sponsored. The non-Serb mayors elected in polls Belgrade got the Serb majorities in the four northern municipalities of Kosovo to boycott have likewise behaved professionally while awaiting a new election.

Smiles all around?

The Balkans are a minor theater of conflict in today’s world. The wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East as well as the Chinese threat against Taiwan are far more important. But even minor instability in the Balkans could greatly complicate those other issues. Irredentism is a major factor in all of them. The Balkan region has a sad history of aggravating larger issues. The US and EU should aim to end any possibility of that happening again. Then maybe Vucic and Lajcak could smile not only at each other but also at Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti.

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