peacefare.net

Serious questions

There is nothing magical about 100,000 dead. It is just like the number 101,239, which no doubt America has now also crossed. Whichever number is attached to your death, your relatives will mourn, your friends will grieve, your colleagues and acquaintances will miss your presence. But for those of us more removed, our minds anchor on round numbers as milestones. They give us pause. They provide an opportunity to reflect. And they make us wonder where we are headed.

Not, however, if you are Donald Trump. He instead tried to distract attention with false allegations about a TV news anchor and false claims about fraud associated with voting by mail. Forty per cent of Americans like this mendacious approach to governance–they remain loyal no matter what. They know that black and brown people are dying from Covid-19 more often than white ones. They know cities have been harder hit than rural areas. They figure voting by mail will help Democrats more than Republicans.

Their comfort will be short-lived. Covid-19 is headed into rural areas and Red states. White people, especially older Trump-supporting males, will soon be dying in more proportional numbers. The economy may show positive numbers in coming months, but we are in a deep trough and odds are strong we’ll be nowhere near the early 2020 peak before election day November 3. President Trump will end his first term with a year of recession behind him.

My friends are concerned that Joe Biden is not doing enough to defeat Trump. I beg to differ. It seems to me that letting Trump hang himself has been an effective part of Biden’s strategy. I don’t really care what the polls say this far out, but when a President is underwater in approval about five months before Election Day, he is in trouble. Most presidents in the past would have reached out to moderates, independents, and potential cross-overs. Not Donald Trump: he is instead trying to corner the mostly white, mostly male, racist vote. He retweets “the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat” and then tweets “When the looting starts, the shooting starts.” Even for Twitter, this was too much and they labelled it as glorifying violence.

Let me be clear: I don’t like the violence in Minneapolis and its political impact could be disastrous. Law and order candidate Richard Nixon in 1968 benefited greatly from disorder. The threat of violence may be an important political factor in favor of those who wield it. But the fact of violence limits popular support and turns off a lot of people. Nonviolent discipline is a vital ingredient in popular uprisings.

Trump has gotten away with incitement to violence his entire life. He is not going to change now. He is going to run a divisive campaign while Biden tries to run a dignified and welcoming one. The only real question is which the Americans prefer. There is no real doubt about the numerical majority: the popular vote will go for Biden, by millions. But American elections are decided in the Electoral College, which gives mostly white rural America grossly disproportionate weight. Two out of the last three Republican presidents were elected without a majority of the popular vote. One more of those would raise serious questions about the sustainability of American democracy.

Reopening

One thing we know for sure: reopening will not go smoothly. Covid-19 has re-surged in countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Germany that have managed the virus relatively well. China too has faced difficulties, despite its draconian methods.

In the United States, the initial approach to managing the virus was erratic and incoherent. The Federal government was often counterproductive. Basically the states took the lead, each in its own way. On the whole, Red states shut down less and are opening up earlier. Blue states shut down more and are opening up later. This is due in part to their different demographic characteristics: most Red states are more rural than most Blue states and saw less of the virus in the first wave.

President Trump has encouraged reopening in spite of Federal guidelines that urged more caution. His stated concern is “the economy,” but premature reopening isn’t going to do much to stem the tsunami of unemployed, 38 million total as of this week, or to get people who have alternatives to go back to work in situations where their health is at risk. It looks as if he is setting himself up for a second wave of infections, including in Red states, sometime around August/September, just as the fall electoral campaign heats up.

Politically, that isn’t the worst outcome I can think of, as I hope Trump is not re-elected. But it is terrible for the country, which has already suffered almost 100,000 people dead and another 50,000 or more likely to die in the next few months. The immediate economic toll is simply gigantic: worse than the financial crisis of 2008 and more or less the dimensions of the the 1930s depression.

Even with reopening, the economy will not be going back to its pre-epidemic state. Lots of businesses are closing permanently. Those that reopen will do so in conditions much less auspicious than before. No restaurant can afford to lose half or more of its tables to the need for social distancing without a big impact on the bottom line. Production facilities likewise face requirements to separate their personnel that will be expensive. Universities will find it hard to conduct in-person classes, many foreign students will find it difficult to get visas to enter the US, and dormitories risk becoming Covid-19 hot spots.

The big economic winners from the epidemic are the giant retailers like Walmart and Amazon that take orders remotely and deliver products rapidly. Small shops, gas stations, non-chain restaurants, mom-and-pop groceries are imploding. Most Federal government aid is going to relatively strong enterprises that know how to fill out forms quickly and have established contacts with lenders. The strong will get relatively stronger, while the weak will close.

President Trump is ignoring the virus this Memorial Day weekend, in favor of golf and the usual visits to military cemeteries. He is also urging reopening of schools. His strategy at this point is to hope Covid-19 goes away. That isn’t likely, and the reopening isn’t going to help.