Category: Uncategorized
Stevenson’s army, April 12
The Covid-19 pandemic is exposing weaknesses in the US Government similar to those seen in recent years in national security matters. We should be able to learn from this crisis. Stories this weekend provide valuable data.
The NYT has a lengthy and detailed account of missed opportunities and avoidable delays in the US response. The editors supplement that story with takeouts on key email messages between officials and a kind of summary story with “key takeaways.”
Some excerpts: The National Security Council office responsible for tracking pandemics received intelligence reports in early January predicting the spread of the virus to the United States, and within weeks was raising options like keeping Americans home from work and shutting down cities the size of Chicago. Mr. Trump would avoid such steps until March.
By the last week of February, it was clear to the administration’s public health team that schools and businesses in hot spots would have to close. But in the turbulence of the Trump White House, it took three more weeks to persuade the president that failure to act quickly to control the spread of the virus would have dire consequences.
The earliest warnings about coronavirus got caught in the crosscurrents of the administration’s internal disputes over China. It was the China hawks who pushed earliest for a travel ban. But their animosity toward China also undercut hopes for a more cooperative approach by the world’s two leading powers to a global crisis.
The chaotic culture of the Trump White House contributed to the crisis. A lack of planning and a failure to execute, combined with the president’s focus on the news cycle and his preference for following his gut rather than the data cost time, and perhaps lives.
From the time the virus was first identified as a concern, the administration’s response was plagued by the rivalries and factionalism that routinely swirl around Mr. Trump and, along with the president’s impulsiveness, undercut decision making and policy development.
Faced with the relentless march of a deadly pathogen, the disagreements and a lack of long-term planning had significant consequences. They slowed the president’s response and resulted in problems with execution and planning, including delays in seeking money from Capitol Hill and a failure to begin broad surveillance testing.
WaPo has its own story about the confused arrangement of “task forces” that have failed to coalesce on a single plan and course of action.
In theory, the task forces are all working toward the same goal: defeating the novel coronavirus and getting the nation back to work — and life — as quickly as possible. But the reality is far more complicated: a bureaucratic nesting doll of groups with frequently competing aims and agendas.
As a result, an administration that has lagged behind at nearly every step of the pandemic still has no consensus plan for when or how to reopen parts of the economy, even as the president and many advisers push to do so as soon as May 1. There is still no concerted plan for getting vital medical supplies to states, which are left to fight among themselves or seek favors from Trump. There is also no developed plan for what happens if cases or deaths spike as people begin to return to work, or how to respond if the coronavirus surges again in the fall, as many public health experts and administration officials fear.
Despite the debates, few actual decisions are made. Instead, Pence tries to reach a consensus and then bring it to the president for approval. Decisions made in the room are often undermined by Trump, and some discussions, such as guidance on wearing masks, stretched on for weeks.
WaPo also has an interesting story comparing the US and European safety nets.
Dana Milbank attributes US failures to the success of the “drown government, no new taxes” movement from the 1980s.
BTW, a report says Japan wants to force its businesses to relocate from China because of the virus consequences for supply.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 8
– Chairman Schiff says acting DNI is weakening the intelligence community.
– ABC says intelligence community warned of a “cataclysmic” pandemic in NOVEMBER.
– Historian says Trump weakened the agencies needed to fight the pandemic.
– WaPo lists misleading Trump statements since January.
– Acting SecNav Modly resigned. Not a word of apology in his letter. Check for yourself. Peter Feaver lists issues raised by the Crozier incident.
– OPM study says government hiring hindered by GS system.
– AP notes lobbying boom in pandemic.
– Taliban have withdrawn from talks.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The emperor has no clothes
Pantelis Ikonomou, a retired IAEA inspector, writes:
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) International Review Conference scheduled for April 2020 has been postponed to April 2021 due to the coronavirus outbreak. This has delayed an official outburst in the international community due to the divide between the NPT nuclear weapon states, including their close allies and the vast majority of the international community. The reason for the world rift is the frustration of most states with the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament, as agreed by the NPT.
Control and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons are gradually weakening with the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty between the US and Russia, the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and the upcoming expiration of the New START treaty. While the world focuses on the coronavirus crisis, North Korea is increasing its nuclear weapons activities and missile tests. At the same time, the US is proceeding with testing hypersonic missiles and tightening the noose around Iran’s neck, a state much weakened by the coronavirus outbreak and US nuclear sanctions.
In a recent statement supported by 13 Nobel Prize laureates, atomic scientists warned that the world is closer to a nuclear catastrophe than at any time since 1945. The risk of a nuclear war is now higher than ever before due also to the increasing number of uncontrolled cyberattacks and the rising probability of a mistake in calculation or an accident.
Qualitative and costly upgrading (“modernization”) is compensating for a quantitative decrease of nuclear arms. The related military expenditures are disproportionate to national health care expenditures. According to the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, the four nuclear weapon states USA, Russia, UK, and France plan to spend more than $1 trillion for “modernizing” their nuclear arsenals and delivery means over the next ten years. At the same time these very states, hit by the coronavirus, responded with delay and dysfunction to the pandemic due to shortages of vital medical supplies.
Characteristic of this grave reality is the case of the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. This strategic spearhead was hit by the coronavirus some days ago. The lives of 5000 crew members were at risk, as was the prestige of the United States. The commander of the aircraft carrier sent a stark warning to his superiors urging them to act decisively in order to save the sailors’ lives from the virus spread. Some days later his letter leaked to the news media. The response was quick: the commander was relieved of his duties.
In this climate of fear and despair, how could politicians persuade the mostly uninformed international public that wide-spread conspiracy theories of the creation of the corona virus at American, Chinese or Canadian laboratories, as part of a military biological weapon, are all scientifically disproven? How could governments and world leaders, convince their citizens and the international community that they are able to protect them from a global catastrophe ? How credible are leaders who do not personally follow nor publicly apply the universal instructions of the World Health Organization, e.g. wearing face protection and testing as many citizens as possible?
The strategy of addressing a pandemic essentially considers, as any other comprehensive security plan does, three key components: prevention, detection and response. The appropriate measures for detecting and responding to the Covid-19 outbreak should stem from a holistic national security plan addressing pandemics. Such national plans ought to have been developed and be continuously updated by competent experts and thoroughly implemented under capable leadership. This is the global strategy for tackling the risks of all major threats, anthropogenic or not, whether military, humanitarian, or ecological.
Mankind’s most effective weapon is scientific knowledge and people’s solidarity. Moreover, in periods of global crises history has shown that real leaders have made the difference. This time the emperor has no clothes.
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Stevenson’s army, April 4
– TR’s great-grandson says that his ancestor, forbidden by the Army to withdraw his Rough Riders from Cuba in 1898 despite rampant yellow fever and malaria, wrote a letter published in many US newspapers that forced the Army to relent.
– President Trump, who still has not filled Inspector General slots at DoD, HHS, Education, Treasury, and CIA now wants to fire the DNI IG, who told Congress about the Ukraine whistle blower.
– Jared Kushner’s ignorance exposed.
– Former SecState [and many other posts] Jim Baker suggests an “American” way of dealing with the pandemic.
Entertainment note for those sheltering in place: BBCs Culture in Quarantine
Library of Congress film archive
British theatre on line
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bullying
Congressman Eliot Engel’s statement on Friday deserves the attention of Balkan-watchers:
“To say that the United States and Kosovo have a warm and close relationship would be understating the depth of our ties. The United States led the campaign to end Milosevic’s genocidal ethnic cleansing and has been the most powerful and consistent friend of the independent and sovereign Republic of Kosovo. I’ve visited Kosovo many times and can confidently say Americans do not receive a warmer welcome anywhere else around the world.
“I’ve been proud to be a partner of Kosovo governments led by a variety of political parties. I do not take sides on who should run Kosovo. That is a decision for the people of Kosovo. I will always work with whomever they choose.
“This is why I have been increasingly concerned with the heavy-handed tactics the Trump Administration is using with Prishtina. The State Department has long called for Kosovo to lift its tariffs on Serbia. But this Administration turned to economic penalties just a few short weeks after the Kurti government took office. Rather than letting a new government facing a pandemic staff its agencies and set up internal procedures, the U.S. contributed to a political crisis in Prishtina over the tariffs on Serbia.
“There are good reasons for Kosovo to lift tariffs, mostly that they are hurting Kosovo more than they are providing leverage to reach a peace deal with Serbia. Regardless, tariffs are a legitimate tool of a sovereign nation. As such, they’ve been imposed around the world by President Trump against friends and foes, alike, for economic and political reasons.
“Rather than using overbearing tactics with a friend which relies on our support, the United States should have patiently worked with the now-outgoing Kosovo government—as it sought to work with the previous Kosovo government—to improve policies which promote prosperity and a lasting peace. Strong-arming a small democracy is the act of a bully, not a mature partner. Regardless, I will continue to work with whatever government the people of Kosovo select now and in the future.
“Moreover, the pressure imposed on Prishtina for its tariffs is decidedly unbalanced. Serbian diplomats are transiting the globe pressing countries to derecognize Kosovo, and Serbia is deepening relations with Moscow and purchasing significant amounts of Russian weaponry. In fact, under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) passed by Congress in the aftermath of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections, these arms purchases require the Administration to impose sanctions on Serbia. Neither have we imposed those sanctions, nor have we energetically pressed Serbia to end its derecognition efforts.
“Something’s wrong with U.S. policy and we need to correct it. We should start with rebalancing our approaches toward Serbia and Kosovo. We should work with our European allies to treat both countries as independent and sovereign partners, applying consistent standards to both sides as we try to restart peace talks. When U.S. law says we should sanction Serbia due to its security ties with Russia, we should.
“Additionally, the U.S. should immediately restart its assistance through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The MCC model is based on objective, data-driven indicators and a mutually agreed upon compact between the U.S. and the recipient country. Using this assistance as a bludgeon for actions not related to MCC or its mission twists the agency into just another transactional pressure tool—precisely what it was not intended to be.”
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Stevenson’s army, March 29
– NYT has a long piece on how the US suffered a “lost month” of inadequate testing to control the pandemic. And while the most senior officials could have done more, many of the problems appear to be at the senior career level.
The members of the coronavirus task force typically devoted only five or 10 minutes, often at the end of contentious meetings, to talk about testing, several participants recalled. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, its leaders assured the others, had developed a diagnostic model that would be rolled out quickly as a first step.
But as the deadly virus from China spread with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and companyexecutives.
The
result was a lost month, when the world’s richest country — armed with
some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease
specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s
spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a
looming public health catastrophe.
-NYT also has a case study of failure — an effort begun 12 years ago to build a larger supply of better ventilators.
– But — Job Alert — Politico says the “national security priesthood” is now recognizing the need for experts on global health.
– And to help you get ready, here are several new CRS studies of coronavirus issues.
Stay safe.
I missed this from Charlie yesterday:
– The House approved the CARES Act [everything gets an acronym nowadays — for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act] by voice vote. Renegade Kentucky Congressman Massie tried to force a rollcall, but it failed because it didn’t receive a sufficient second of 44 supporters.
-President Trump signed it [with no Democrats invited to the signing ceremony] but issued a signing statement saying he would not comply with provisions requiring the new special inspector general to send reports to Congress. As I’ve said in class, presidents can increase their legal authorities by such actions. And this reduces congressional oversight of the new law.
– The president also issued an executive order under the Defense Production Act [DPA] to force General Motors to produce ventilators. This action had been delayed for more than a week because of business opposition.
– I’ve also said in class that authorities matter. Trump announced yesterday that trade staffer Peter Navarro would be in charge of DPA action. He probably doesn’t realize that, as an unconfirmed WH staffer, Navarro is not an “officer of the United States” and is not allowed any directive authority. I’m not even sure what the chain of command beneath the president is for DPA, but Navarro can still make calls and send messages … and hope for compliance.
– Next week we’ll talk abut the budget process. Though I consider myself a budget hawk, I agree with NYT’s Neil Irwin that these extraordinary expenditures are necessary.
– WaPO has an oped on how to structure the coronavirus fight that I find persuasive, so here it is.
– FYI, as of last night, the US had still tested only 579,000 people for the virus. Where are those millions of test kits?
–Civ-mil clash:NYT reports that the US commander in Iraq has been ordered to plan attacks on Iran-linked forces but has warned against implementing them.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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