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The emperor has no clothes
Pantelis Ikonomou, a retired IAEA inspector, writes:
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) International Review Conference scheduled for April 2020 has been postponed to April 2021 due to the coronavirus outbreak. This has delayed an official outburst in the international community due to the divide between the NPT nuclear weapon states, including their close allies and the vast majority of the international community. The reason for the world rift is the frustration of most states with the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament, as agreed by the NPT.
Control and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons are gradually weakening with the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty between the US and Russia, the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and the upcoming expiration of the New START treaty. While the world focuses on the coronavirus crisis, North Korea is increasing its nuclear weapons activities and missile tests. At the same time, the US is proceeding with testing hypersonic missiles and tightening the noose around Iran’s neck, a state much weakened by the coronavirus outbreak and US nuclear sanctions.
In a recent statement supported by 13 Nobel Prize laureates, atomic scientists warned that the world is closer to a nuclear catastrophe than at any time since 1945. The risk of a nuclear war is now higher than ever before due also to the increasing number of uncontrolled cyberattacks and the rising probability of a mistake in calculation or an accident.
Qualitative and costly upgrading (“modernization”) is compensating for a quantitative decrease of nuclear arms. The related military expenditures are disproportionate to national health care expenditures. According to the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, the four nuclear weapon states USA, Russia, UK, and France plan to spend more than $1 trillion for “modernizing” their nuclear arsenals and delivery means over the next ten years. At the same time these very states, hit by the coronavirus, responded with delay and dysfunction to the pandemic due to shortages of vital medical supplies.
Characteristic of this grave reality is the case of the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. This strategic spearhead was hit by the coronavirus some days ago. The lives of 5000 crew members were at risk, as was the prestige of the United States. The commander of the aircraft carrier sent a stark warning to his superiors urging them to act decisively in order to save the sailors’ lives from the virus spread. Some days later his letter leaked to the news media. The response was quick: the commander was relieved of his duties.
In this climate of fear and despair, how could politicians persuade the mostly uninformed international public that wide-spread conspiracy theories of the creation of the corona virus at American, Chinese or Canadian laboratories, as part of a military biological weapon, are all scientifically disproven? How could governments and world leaders, convince their citizens and the international community that they are able to protect them from a global catastrophe ? How credible are leaders who do not personally follow nor publicly apply the universal instructions of the World Health Organization, e.g. wearing face protection and testing as many citizens as possible?
The strategy of addressing a pandemic essentially considers, as any other comprehensive security plan does, three key components: prevention, detection and response. The appropriate measures for detecting and responding to the Covid-19 outbreak should stem from a holistic national security plan addressing pandemics. Such national plans ought to have been developed and be continuously updated by competent experts and thoroughly implemented under capable leadership. This is the global strategy for tackling the risks of all major threats, anthropogenic or not, whether military, humanitarian, or ecological.
Mankind’s most effective weapon is scientific knowledge and people’s solidarity. Moreover, in periods of global crises history has shown that real leaders have made the difference. This time the emperor has no clothes.
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Stevenson’s army, April 4
– TR’s great-grandson says that his ancestor, forbidden by the Army to withdraw his Rough Riders from Cuba in 1898 despite rampant yellow fever and malaria, wrote a letter published in many US newspapers that forced the Army to relent.
– President Trump, who still has not filled Inspector General slots at DoD, HHS, Education, Treasury, and CIA now wants to fire the DNI IG, who told Congress about the Ukraine whistle blower.
– Jared Kushner’s ignorance exposed.
– Former SecState [and many other posts] Jim Baker suggests an “American” way of dealing with the pandemic.
Entertainment note for those sheltering in place: BBCs Culture in Quarantine
Library of Congress film archive
British theatre on line
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bullying
Congressman Eliot Engel’s statement on Friday deserves the attention of Balkan-watchers:
“To say that the United States and Kosovo have a warm and close relationship would be understating the depth of our ties. The United States led the campaign to end Milosevic’s genocidal ethnic cleansing and has been the most powerful and consistent friend of the independent and sovereign Republic of Kosovo. I’ve visited Kosovo many times and can confidently say Americans do not receive a warmer welcome anywhere else around the world.
“I’ve been proud to be a partner of Kosovo governments led by a variety of political parties. I do not take sides on who should run Kosovo. That is a decision for the people of Kosovo. I will always work with whomever they choose.
“This is why I have been increasingly concerned with the heavy-handed tactics the Trump Administration is using with Prishtina. The State Department has long called for Kosovo to lift its tariffs on Serbia. But this Administration turned to economic penalties just a few short weeks after the Kurti government took office. Rather than letting a new government facing a pandemic staff its agencies and set up internal procedures, the U.S. contributed to a political crisis in Prishtina over the tariffs on Serbia.
“There are good reasons for Kosovo to lift tariffs, mostly that they are hurting Kosovo more than they are providing leverage to reach a peace deal with Serbia. Regardless, tariffs are a legitimate tool of a sovereign nation. As such, they’ve been imposed around the world by President Trump against friends and foes, alike, for economic and political reasons.
“Rather than using overbearing tactics with a friend which relies on our support, the United States should have patiently worked with the now-outgoing Kosovo government—as it sought to work with the previous Kosovo government—to improve policies which promote prosperity and a lasting peace. Strong-arming a small democracy is the act of a bully, not a mature partner. Regardless, I will continue to work with whatever government the people of Kosovo select now and in the future.
“Moreover, the pressure imposed on Prishtina for its tariffs is decidedly unbalanced. Serbian diplomats are transiting the globe pressing countries to derecognize Kosovo, and Serbia is deepening relations with Moscow and purchasing significant amounts of Russian weaponry. In fact, under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) passed by Congress in the aftermath of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections, these arms purchases require the Administration to impose sanctions on Serbia. Neither have we imposed those sanctions, nor have we energetically pressed Serbia to end its derecognition efforts.
“Something’s wrong with U.S. policy and we need to correct it. We should start with rebalancing our approaches toward Serbia and Kosovo. We should work with our European allies to treat both countries as independent and sovereign partners, applying consistent standards to both sides as we try to restart peace talks. When U.S. law says we should sanction Serbia due to its security ties with Russia, we should.
“Additionally, the U.S. should immediately restart its assistance through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The MCC model is based on objective, data-driven indicators and a mutually agreed upon compact between the U.S. and the recipient country. Using this assistance as a bludgeon for actions not related to MCC or its mission twists the agency into just another transactional pressure tool—precisely what it was not intended to be.”
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Stevenson’s army, March 29
– NYT has a long piece on how the US suffered a “lost month” of inadequate testing to control the pandemic. And while the most senior officials could have done more, many of the problems appear to be at the senior career level.
The members of the coronavirus task force typically devoted only five or 10 minutes, often at the end of contentious meetings, to talk about testing, several participants recalled. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, its leaders assured the others, had developed a diagnostic model that would be rolled out quickly as a first step.
But as the deadly virus from China spread with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and companyexecutives.
The
result was a lost month, when the world’s richest country — armed with
some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease
specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s
spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a
looming public health catastrophe.
-NYT also has a case study of failure — an effort begun 12 years ago to build a larger supply of better ventilators.
– But — Job Alert — Politico says the “national security priesthood” is now recognizing the need for experts on global health.
– And to help you get ready, here are several new CRS studies of coronavirus issues.
Stay safe.
I missed this from Charlie yesterday:
– The House approved the CARES Act [everything gets an acronym nowadays — for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act] by voice vote. Renegade Kentucky Congressman Massie tried to force a rollcall, but it failed because it didn’t receive a sufficient second of 44 supporters.
-President Trump signed it [with no Democrats invited to the signing ceremony] but issued a signing statement saying he would not comply with provisions requiring the new special inspector general to send reports to Congress. As I’ve said in class, presidents can increase their legal authorities by such actions. And this reduces congressional oversight of the new law.
– The president also issued an executive order under the Defense Production Act [DPA] to force General Motors to produce ventilators. This action had been delayed for more than a week because of business opposition.
– I’ve also said in class that authorities matter. Trump announced yesterday that trade staffer Peter Navarro would be in charge of DPA action. He probably doesn’t realize that, as an unconfirmed WH staffer, Navarro is not an “officer of the United States” and is not allowed any directive authority. I’m not even sure what the chain of command beneath the president is for DPA, but Navarro can still make calls and send messages … and hope for compliance.
– Next week we’ll talk abut the budget process. Though I consider myself a budget hawk, I agree with NYT’s Neil Irwin that these extraordinary expenditures are necessary.
– WaPO has an oped on how to structure the coronavirus fight that I find persuasive, so here it is.
– FYI, as of last night, the US had still tested only 579,000 people for the virus. Where are those millions of test kits?
–Civ-mil clash:NYT reports that the US commander in Iraq has been ordered to plan attacks on Iran-linked forces but has warned against implementing them.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 20
It’s time to remind of a significant cultural difference showing up now in the pandemic crisis: The American military — and much of the rest of US government — does a lot of after action reviews and calls them “lessons learned” studies. The British military, more accurately,calls them “lessons identified.”
Now we know they knew — but didn’t act. NYT reports 3 major studies of a possible pandemic were conducted by HHS over the past 4 years. They identified many of the same problems now occurring. But little or nothing was done to better prepare.
Politico offers some lessons from WWII mobilization.
Sen.McConnell is now in talks with others about his recovery bill. It has several tax law provisions, meaning that Constitutionally the bill; must originate in the House. SInce the Senate wants to act first and quickly, they’ll have to take some other House-passed measure and tack on the massive new bill. It then has to go back to the House for approval.
I’m beginning to feel that this pandemic will be the defining event of the 21st century, at least for a long time to come. It has world-reshaping and devastating impact. The differences between Before and After will be profound. So I urge your attention this new FA article and to this revised Risk Assessment by the Eurasia group.
And if you’re not worried enough, see what Ebola czar Ron Klain predicts.
WOTR has a balanced assessment of the new Cybersecurity Solarium Commission report.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Yesterday’s cold, today’s warmth
Kosovo’s Ambassador to the United States, Vlora Citaku, has published this personal reflection on her country’s 12th birthday on her Facebook page (republished here with her concurrence):
It was a cold February and I had a secret.
I distinctly remember that cold February day. All of us remember it. It was frigid, but the heat in the atmosphere could already be felt for a few days. I was even more tense than the air itself, because I had a secret that I could not share with anyone. Not even my closest family members.
I was leading part of the processes that were related to the Declaration of Independence but no one was to know about these processes. The press conference for international media had to be prepared, but no one was to know what the conference was being called for. The security preparations had to be made, but not even the police were to know what they would be protecting, and when they would be protecting it.
I had a big secret in my heart, and sometimes I would chuckle to myself because of the news that warmed my heart. The “Newborn” monument was being prepared, but no one was to know when we would give birth to the newborn.
We had reason to be joyful, and even more reason to be prepared for the worst. Serbia was ruled by a nationalist with a nefarious agenda. There were warnings of possible violence and electricity shutdowns. The verbal aggression had reached its peak.
Nonetheless, it was clear that we would not prolong the process since every other avenue, from the negotiations in Vienna to the visits of the troika (Ishinger, Wisner, and Borcan Haracenko) had been exhausted. The enemies of independence had nowhere left to run. There will be independence – said the wise [former Finnish] President Ahtisaari – but it will be supervised until it is proven that minorities and the whole society will be better off and have more power because of the creation of the state, not less.
As an MP, I knew that I would be one of the elected representatives of the people (not the provisional self-governance institutions) who would declare independence. We would complete the statehood of our nation. The Declaration of Independence had to be written in secret, with calligraphy that was noticeably rushed at the end, because the entire population of Kosovo was in a rush. We could not withstand another minute of
delay for that which was pursued for an entire century.
Since the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, since the time of Isa Boletini, since the time of my ancestor Shote Galica, since the time of Shaban Polluza, since the time of the partizans who fought Nazism but were betrayed by the Communist Party. Since the time of the establishment of the University of Prishtina, since the time of dissidents, incarcerations, and false hopes. Since my time as a member of the “generation of the
republic” who were left without schools, poisoned, and ignored by Europe.
We could not withstand another minuted, since the time of our armed resistance, the time of the soldiers whom I followed step by step as a translator for the largest international media, the time when we faced genocide against civilians perpetrated by the century-old occupier.
It was cold on that February day, colder than ever. But I had a secret in my heart that warmed my soul.
To be completely frank, I cried just as much as I laughed on that day. Precisely because of the life that we lived, the sacrifice of my mother and father, the sacrifice of my friends. The sacrifice of the elders and that of the most vulnerable.
These are the feelings that I remember today, 12 years later. Though climate change has not doubt made February warmer and snowless, my feelings resurface just the same when I remember how we became a country and how steep a price we paid for our right to exist as such. A century of pain.
However, as the saying goes – no pain, no gain.
And gain we did, much more than many other oppressed peoples. We won our Declaration of Independence, and the declaration was recognized by the world’s biggest democracies.
It was recognized with a new map in an elementary school by Sarkozy of France, the France of the revolution that brought about human rights as a fundamental concept. It was recognized by the Italy of humanist renaissance that placed the human at the center of the universe. It was recognized by Germany, the global example of rebirth after the catastrophe of the Second World War. It was recognized by the United Kingdom. And it
was recognized by the United States of America, to whom we will always be indebted.
A few years ago, an American diplomat confessed to me that it was not only Hashim Thaci who had to be convinced to delay the declaration of independence by a few months, from the end of 2007 to 2008. His resistance was great, but it was matched by that of President Bush who told his diplomats “I have promised independence to a people, and independence I will deliver”.
Twelve years later I reckon, many things could have been done better. The expectations of people that we would instantly become Switzerland, and everything would improve, that we would have jobs and wealth, were broken by the burdens of transition.
However, the same burdens broke many peoples across all of Eastern Europe after the fall of communism. Unfortunately, not rarely, and even criminally, not everyone had the same opportunities for growth in our new country. The solidarity, love, and boundless happiness we had for each other did not last forever.
Nevertheless, love must not be replaced by hatred. Independence is final, and will never be called into question. I am saddened to hear when some still doubt this. When some deny it. When they disrespect our flag. But today, I will not write for them.
It was cold on February 17th, 2008. But it was also the warmest day in a century.
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