Category: Uncategorized
The real threat to Israel is…
One of my sharpest readers questions, “do you seriously believe that Hamas can destroy the state of Israel?” I had cited that concern to account for Israeli policy in Gaza.
The answer is “no,” I don’t. But I do think it useful to acknowledge that concern in accounting for what the Israelis are doing. A state can justify almost anything if it can convince its population that its enemies are ready to destroy it. Hamas and its enablers in Tehran have said that is their objective. Those threats and Hamas’ homicidal behavior on October 7 have fed Israeli indifference, and even support, for the human rights abuses occurring in Gaza today.
The multi-front war
That behavior is generating a far greater threat to Israel than the October 7 attack. The West Bank is boiling. Yemeni Houthi and Lebanese Hizbollah attacks are escalating. Iran is enriching more uranium to close to weapon-usable levels. Israel’s international isolation is growing. The Gaza war has lasted already much longer than the Israelis anticipated. Does the Israeli Defense Force really want to fight on two or more fronts for the next six months or so?
Things are no better for Israel in the US. Prime Minister Netanyahu may imagine that the shift of Muslim votes away from President Biden will bring his favored candidate to power in Washington. But Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to the US will no doubt give American Muslims pause. The Republicans in Congress will rain praise on the Prime Minister. Some Democrats will not attend or walk out. Trump will have no compunction about supporting Israeli abuses in Gaza. The Christian evangelicals will back him. But liberal Jews, who are the majority in the US, will not. I hope Muslims will join them in voting for Biden.
The alternatives
What is the alternative for Israel? Jerusalem (that really is Israel’s capital, even if I would have preferred Trump not move the US embassy there until a final settlement) could announce that it is pausing the fighting and injecting massive humanitarian assistance into Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces have announced a temporary suspension along one vital route. That is a step in the right direction, but far from sufficient. Israel needs to put the onus on Hamas to also stop its attacks. A massive flow of aid would give Gazans an opportunity to loosen Hamas’ grasp and begin to determine their own fate.
Jerusalem could in addition seek a settlement on Israel’s northern border, one that ends the ti-for-tat bombardments and returns the area to relative calm. Rather than escalating to re-establish deterrence, as is their habit, the Israelis could do what they did with Iran: reduce their retaliation. This would signal to Hizbollah readiness to accept a return to the status quo ante. US envoy Amos Hochstein is seeking to calm things on the Israel/Lebanon border. Let’s wish him success.
It is much harder to know what to do about the Houthis. They seem determined to assert their role in “the resistance.” They are using Iran’s military technology to attack both shipping in the Red Sea and Israel, with relatively little effect on military targets but considerable damage to commercial shipping and world markets. The Houthi menace, and it is a menace, is likely to outlast both the Hamas and Hizbollah threats.
As for the American front, support for Israel is rapidly becoming a partisan issue, with part of the Democratic Party doubtful about unconditional assistance. This is entirely out of keeping with past practice and not good for Israel, which needs a Prime Minister who can speak to Congress without anyone walking out.
The real threat
The real threat to Israel is Netanyahu and his determination to continue the Gaza war until he can declare victory and stave off any challenge to his hold on power. Israelis are unhappy with him because of the government’s failure on October 7 to protect its citizens. They need to begin to realize that his policies toward the Palestinians are just as disgraceful. In addition, they aggravate the Hamas, Hizbollah, and Houthi threats.
Unfortunately, no replacement prime minister on the horizon today seems willing or able to lead Israelis in the direction of resolving the conflict with the Palestinians. Nor do the citizens seem ready to support anyone who does. At this point, Israel is more a threat to itself than is Hamas.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Good news, finally, but unlikely to last
Bits of good news all around. The US House of Representatives, after months of allowing a small number of dissenting Republicans to block vital expanded aid to Ukraine (as well as infusions for Israel and Taiwan), has now approved it. Israel has retaliated against Iran for last weekend’s massive barrage of missiles and drones. It managed to do so without provoking any further escalation. And on a much lesser scale of geopolitics, the Council of Europe appears to be readying itself to admit Kosovo as a member.
Better late than never
All of this is good news, even if much delayed.
The Congress should never have allowed its Russophile right-wingers to put Ukraine’s existence at risk. It is appalling that someone could become Speaker who required months of cajoling to recognize the importance of getting more assistance to Kyiv. Last year’s Russian dominance in the war of attrition has done real damage, not only to Ukrainian morale.
We can hope that the US will now send Ukraine everything it needs. The aim should be not only to resist Russian advances but also to roll back Moscow’s recent gains and the threat they now poses to Kharkiv. Ukrainian F-16s should arrive this summer. A big Ukrainian push with the right weapons could force Russian retreats in Donbas, the south, and even Crimea.
Israel needs to do more
Israel has been rampaging in Gaza as if it had nothing to fear. The Iranian attack, though a failure, is hopefully a reminder to Jerusalem that self-restraint and diplomacy can be virtues, not weaknesses. The Israelis need now to resuscitate the talks with Hamas and reach an agreement, however unsatisfactory, for the release of at least the civilian hostages.
They also need to get rid of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has repeatedly endangered Israeli security. His encouragement of US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, his financial and political support for Hamas, his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state, and the deplorable intelligence and military failures of October 7 qualify him as the worst Israeli prime minister, not just the longest-serving.
Serbia’s spite is shameful
The Council of Europe has dawdled far too long in approving Kosovo for membership. It is far more qualified than its principal opponent, Serbia. And allowing Kosovo in will give Serbs who live there a new and potentially fruitful avenue to pursue complaints, through the European Court of Human Rights.
The spitefulness of Belgrade’s opposition, which directly contradicts an agreement the European Union claims Serbia adhered to in February, may be expected, but it is still deplorable. Kosovo is demonstrably better qualified for CoE membership than Serbia.
Can we hope for more?
Good news is particularly welcome when it is a harbinger of more. Some may hope that the voting in Congress augurs a less polarized political atmosphere in which moderate Democrats and Republicans can cooperate to neutralize the nutty MAGAites. But I see little hope of that. Speaker Johnson will now face an effort to remove him. If he wins, the MAGAites will be embittered and he will be more cautious in the future. If he loses, we could face a truly dire situation, as then he would have to be replaced with an even more convinced MAGAite.
In the Middle East, Netanyahu still seems firmly in power. Though his margin in the Knesset is narrow, his allies stand no chance of remaining in power if he falls. He himself could end up in prison on corruption charges. Netanyahu is not going to be easy to displace. Let’s hope the civilians in Rafah won’t pay the price of keeping him in the prime ministry.
In the Balkans, Belgrade may lose the battle to keep Pristina out of the Council of Europe. But that is a minor skirmish in Kosovo’s effort to gain full international recognition. There is no sign of progress on UN membership. EU membership is far off. NATO will have to be the next major battle. Fortunately that excludes Serbia from having a veto or even a vote. But Hungary and now Slovakia will more than likely be prepared to do Belgrade’s dirty work.
A long road ahead
Those of us looking for a Ukrainian military victory, a Palestinian state that will live in peace with Israel, and UN membership for Kosovo still have a long wait ahead. But every step in the right direction today is one that doesn’t have to be taken tomorrow.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Europe isn’t going to be whole and free
Jim O’Brien, the fairly still new Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, spoke last week at the German Marshall Fund. Focused mainly on Ukraine, he said little about the Balkans. That already tells you a lot. The Balkan region is not a priority in Washington. When he did address the Balkans (he starts a bit before 23 minutes), he highlighted economic issues. That tells you more. Jim doubts the political issues can be resolved at present. He was a devotee of the failed Open Balkans program, which proposed a economy-led approach to regional reform. But Serbia dominated it, so Kosovo opted out. It accomplished little or nothing.
Reform v stability
Heather Conley pushed Jim back to the Balkans in the 39th minute, asking him about the balance between stability and reform in regard to the Serbian elections last December 17. Jim tries to cop out on the Belgrade election, as OSCE did not officially observe it. But the facts are well known. The national government bused in thousands of voters from Bosnia to vote in Belgrade, as it feared a defeat there. Even so, it did not gain 50% of the seats in the city council. Who will govern there is still uncertain.
Jim treats the outcome as a sign of reform rather than fraud. That is one more disturbing instance of American appeasement of Serbian President Vucic.
He then reverts to his preference for an economy-led policy, explicitly based on Belgrade’s performance in attracting foreign investment. He hopes the other leaders in the region will emulate that. But Serbia’s FDI performance has stagnated in recent years, as Belgrade has turned away from foreign policy alignment with its main sources in Europe and the US. Vucic is supporting Russia in Ukraine and sucking up to China, claiming to stay “neutral” while wining and dining with Lukashenko, Aliyev, and Orban. West European and American companies rightly wonder whether they will be treated correctly. That is especially true as your rule of law scores decline.
Political as well as economic reform for stability
The right approach is reform with stability. Serbia’s instability in recent years is associated with President Vucic’s refusal to reform. This has led to massive anti-violence, anti-corruption, and pro-environment demonstrations against the government. It is unlikely there will be stability until at least some of these opposition demands are met.
The notion that Vucic can ride out the wave of protests and impose stabiity using increasingly autocratic measures is unconvincing. It is also not something the US should support. Nor will his now constant saber-rattling toward Kosovo help. Washington and Brussels should articulate a policy that calls for real reform, political as well as economic. Their parliamentarians are already doing so. The executive branches should follow their lead.
One important but long-neglecteed area of reform is military expenditure. Serbia has been conducting a massive military buildup, including drones, air defenses, and a few Humvees to keep the Americans quiet:
The only reason for such rearmament is to bully Kosovo and other neighbors. None of them threaten Serbia, which however is anxious to control the Serb populations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo. The effort to do this goes by the moniker “the Serbian world.” Washington and Brussels should tell Belgrade the Serbian world is anathema and the military buildup should stop.
There is a pro-EU Serbian opposition
The Serbian political opposition did better in the parliamentary election than might be expected. The electoral environment was free but blatantly and decidedly unfair. Nevertheless the opposition won one-quarter of the seats in Parliament. It is not an opposition strong enough to buck Serbian policy on Kosovo. To the contrary, many of its stalwarts try to stake out more nationalist and irredentist positions than the government.
But it is mostly a pro-EU opposition that is more unified than at times in the past. If it ever comes even close to power, it will need to re-evaluate how its own fate relates to Kosovo’s. The inevitable conclusion is that EU membership depends on serious good neighborly relations and eventual formal recognition. Nothing less will get Serbia into the EU. They know it but can’t say it, or do anything about it, now.
So what is to be done?
One of Jim’s themes throughout is supporting responsible politicians to deliver benefits to citizens. That is not what President Vucic is doing. He has gotten Brussels and Washington to buy stability with little, if any, reform that really benefits citizens. The situation is even worse in Bosnia and Herzegovina. There Washington and Brussels have made the mistake of supporting Croat politicians who are unwilling to produce any serious reform or benefits to citizens.
If there is one politician who has demonstrated serious commitment to reform in the Balkans today, it is Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti. Brussels has levied “consequences” against him for daring to keep professionally behaving police and legitimately elected mayors in place in northern Kosovo. It is true that he has also hesitated to implement the agreed Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. That is a price that should be paid at the end of the dialogue process, with formal diplomatic recognition, not now.
Jim is right that the main political issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity cannot be resolved in the way the US wants now. I don’t mind his “benefits to citizens” approach. It makes sense to focus on relatively technical issues and full implementation of past agreements, like the ones on license plates and state documents, between Kosovo and Serbia.
It makes no sense to imagine that Serbia under Vucic will want to do more. Or that the Balkans will be part of Europe whole and free any time soon. For now, the line between East and West will run through the Balkans, with Serbia and Republika Srpska on the eastern side of it, along with Belarus. It is Serbia’s right to choose. It has done so. We need to accept and respect its choice.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
These two look happy, don’t they?
That of course is EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak on the left and Serbian President Vucic on the right. Accompanying this photo, Lajcak wrote:
Arriving in Belgrade this morning, I met with @predsednikrs @avucic. In our discussion, we focused on the strategic outlook for 2024, took stock on the state of play in the Dialogue and spoke about the next steps in the normalisation of relations with Kosovo.
Despite Lajcak’s effort to portray the meeting in neutral terms, there are good reasons for the grim looks.
The tilt is definitively eastward
Vucic is increasingly alienated from the West the Europeans want him to embrace. Just in the last few months, he has
- Sponsored a terrorist attack inside Kosovo intended to spark a response that would allow him to move his military into his neighbor’s north.
- Mobilized the Serbian army for that purpose.
- Conducted a fraudulent election in Belgrade, importing thousands of voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Aligned Serbia increasingly with the strongmen not only of Russia and China but also Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Hungary.
- Increasingly supported the secessionist ambitions of Milorad Dodik, the strongman of the Serb-majority 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So far as I am aware, the only tidbits Vucic has offered the West are acceptance of Kosovo documents and license plates in Serbia and steps towards payment by Serbs in Kosovo of their electricity bills. I doubt however many Kosovo Albanians will risking their windshields to drive into Serbia with Kosovo plates. We’ll surely need to wait a while before the bills are paid.
What Lajcak should be saying
So what should Lajcak be saying to Vucic once the cameras are out of the room? @ivanastradner gives us part of the answer with this tweet about the UK specialy envoy for the Balkans:
Special envoy to the Western Balkans sent crystal clear messages: 1. Serbia should impose sanctions on Russia. 2. Serbia should investigate elections irregularities. 3. Republika Srpska cannot be an independent state.
telegram channels are so upset…
But that would not suffice. The Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia will have little impact. I would stop asking for them. Belgrade hardly needs to investigate the election irregularities. It needs to rerun the elections. The EU needs to make it clear that Brussels will suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade in response to any future mobilization of the Serbian Army against Kosovo. Belgrade should surrender the avowed ring leader of the September 24 attack to the Kosovo authorities for trial. Brussels require that Vucic publicly renounce the Russian-sponsored, irredentist “Serbian world” program that has endangered the sovereignty and territoriality of Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia.
https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1751450967504039968/photo/1
The Americans should be chiming in
Washington is in part responsible for the appeasement the EU has undertaken in respone to Belgrade’s defection. It needs to change its tune, in public as well as in private. In addition to pushing on the points above, the US should put its money where its mouth is. There should be no more World Bank money or other multilateral financial assistance for Serbia until it accepts in both word and deed the February and March agreements that both the EU and US claim are legally binding.
The Americans should also revivify their own relations with Pristina and try to bend the EU back into a friendlier relationship with Pristina. The “consequences” Brussels levied on Kosovo last year because of lack of progress in the dialogue with Belgrade were always unjustiably one-sided. Now they look ridiculous. The police the EU wanted withdrawn from Kosovo prevented a disastrous outcome last September 24 when they responded effectively and professionally to the terrorist attack Belgrade sponsored. The non-Serb mayors elected in polls Belgrade got the Serb majorities in the four northern municipalities of Kosovo to boycott have likewise behaved professionally while awaiting a new election.
Smiles all around?
The Balkans are a minor theater of conflict in today’s world. The wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East as well as the Chinese threat against Taiwan are far more important. But even minor instability in the Balkans could greatly complicate those other issues. Irredentism is a major factor in all of them. The Balkan region has a sad history of aggravating larger issues. The US and EU should aim to end any possibility of that happening again. Then maybe Vucic and Lajcak could smile not only at each other but also at Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Netanyahu should resign, but he won’t
These are the “provisional measures” in today’s decision at the International Court of Justice on Israeli behavior in Gaza:
(1) The State of Israel shall immediately suspend its military operations in and against
Gaza.(2) The State of Israel shall ensure that any military or irregular armed units which may
be directed, supported or influenced by it, as well as any organisations and persons
which may be subject to its control, direction or influence, take no steps in
furtherance of the military operations referred to [in] point (1) above.(3) The Republic of South Africa and the State of Israel shall each, in accordance with
their obligations under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the
Crime of Genocide, in relation to the Palestinian people, take all reasonable
measures within their power to prevent genocide.(4) The State of Israel shall, in accordance with its obligations under the Convention on
the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, in relation to the
Palestinian people as a group protected by the Convention on the Prevention and
Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, desist from the commission of any and all
acts within the scope of Article II of the Convention, in particular:
(a) killing members of the group;
(b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to the members of the group;
(c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about
its physical destruction in whole or in part; and
(d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group.(5) The State of Israel shall, pursuant to point (4) (c) above, in relation to Palestinians,
desist from, and take all measures within its power including the rescinding of
relevant orders, of restrictions and/or of prohibitions to prevent:
(a) the expulsion and forced displacement from their homes;
(b) the deprivation of:
(i) access to adequate food and water;
(ii) access to humanitarian assistance, including access to adequate fuel,
shelter, clothes, hygiene and sanitation;
(iii) medical supplies and assistance; and
(c) the destruction of Palestinian life in Gaza.(6) The State of Israel shall, in relation to Palestinians, ensure that its military, as well
as any irregular armed units or individuals which may be directed, supported or
otherwise influenced by it and any organizations and persons which may be subject
to its control, direction or influence, do not commit any acts described in (4) and (5)
above, or engage in direct and public incitement to commit genocide, conspiracy to
commit genocide, attempt to commit genocide, or complicity in genocide, and
insofar as they do engage therein, that steps are taken towards their punishment
pursuant to Articles I, II, III and IV of the Convention on the Prevention and
Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.(7) The State of Israel shall take effective measures to prevent the destruction and
ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of
Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of
Genocide; to that end, the State of Israel shall not act to deny or otherwise restrict
access by fact-finding missions, international mandates and other bodies to Gaza to
assist in ensuring the preservation and retention of said evidence.(8) The State of Israel shall submit a report to the Court on all measures taken to give
effect to this Order within one week, as from the date of this Order, and thereafter
at such regular intervals as the Court shall order, until a final decision on the case is
rendered by the Court.(9) The State of Israel shall refrain from any action and shall ensure that no action is
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-ord-01-00-en.pdf
taken which might aggravate or extend the dispute before the Court or make it more
difficult to resolve.
While some media have headlined this to indicate the ICJ did not order a ceasefire, it is hard to see how Israel could comply without one, in particular with item (1). Israel’s ad hoc judge, appointed for this specific case, voted with a Ugandan judge against items 1, 2, 5, and 6.
Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected what he termed these “outrageous” decisions. This failure in court represents the latest in a series of clamorous Netanyahu failures. His governments have failed to cut support for Hamas, which he viewed as preventing a cohesive Palestinian Authority, giving him an excuse not to negotiate. His government failed to foresee the October 7 Hamas attack and to respond quickly and effectively. The Israel Defense Forces have failed in the 3.5 months since to achieve their declared objectives of destroying Hamas and gaining freedom for most of the hostages.
He should resign but likely won’t. He regards himself and his fate as the equivalent of the Israeli state’s. L’etat c’est lui. Only 15% of the country wants him as prime minister once the war is over. A resignation now would end not only his political career but likely also his personal freedom, as he would then have to face corruption charges.
Netanyahu has steered Israel in an illiberal ethnonationalist direction for much of the past 30 years, during which he has served as prime minister for 16. He has consistently opposed a Palestinian state. He now governs with blatant racists and Jewish supremacists whose behavior has convinced the ICJ that Israel is committing genocide. If Israel faces an existential threat, Netanyahu has created it. It is time for him to go.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
What’s the alternative to counterproductive?
Last week, I claimed that Russia, Israel, the EU and US are all pursuing counterproductive policies, respectively in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Balkans. But reasonable people will ask: what’s the alternative? So here I offer some answers.
Russia needs to lose
In Ukraine, it is clear Russia cannot gain more territory with its current force configuation. Putin’s best bet is a negotiation that would leave his forces in place. That would give them time to re-group, re-arm, and reinforce. Rumors circulated at the end of last year that he was looking for such a pause. In the meanwhile, he will use his political allies in Europe and the US to continue to block the respective $55 billion and $50 billion aid packages. That could weaken Ukrainian will and cause Kyiv to cave.
The best bet for the US and EU is to approve those aid packages as quickly as possible. They should also lift any qualitative restrictions on arms exports to Ukraine. The sooner Kyiv gets what it needs to retake all of its territory, including Crimea, the quicker this war will end. There is no evidence that Russia can or will escalate in response. To the contrary, its economy is weakening and Russians are wanting an end to the war.
Israel needs to hold Netanyahu accountable
Israeli policy on Gaza has been misconceived. Before October 7, Prime Minister Netanyahu relied on and helped finance Hamas to govern the Palestinians there. That also ensured they could not unite political with those in the West Bank. Now he is relying on continuation of the war to postpone any political reckoning inside Israel. He after all is responsible for the Israel Defense Forces’ lack of preparedness and slowness in response to the October 24 terrorist assault. No one expects him to survive in the prime ministry once the war subsides.
Destroying Hamas’ capability of carrying out another attack does not depend on leveling Gaza or killing tens of thousands of civilians. It will require a concerted effort to hunt the perpetrators. I’d prefer Israel bring them to trial, but the Israelis are more likely just to kill them. That would certainly not constitute anything like mass murder, crimes against humanity, or genocide. A good part of the Arab world would breathe a sigh of relief. The rest of the world might even applaud.
The US and EU need to focus their efforts in the right place
In the Balkans, the US and EU are ignoring what is important and focusing on trivia. They have failed to react effectively to Belgrade’s sponsorship of the September 24 terrorist attack inside northern Kosovo. Washington and Brussels have also failed to respond to Belgrade’s free but unfair and fraudulent elections on December 17. They have allowed, once again, celebration of an illegal, genocide-promoting holiday in Republika Srpska, the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia and Herzegvona.
The alternative is to focus on what counts and do it together. Their conclusions about the September 24 attack should be published and “consequences” levied on Belgrade until it turns over the perpetrators to Kosovo for trial. Brussels and Washington should demand a re-run of the fraudulent Belgrade election. Allowing Presdent Vucic impunity is not going to get him to embrace the West. His policy is hedging. Pulling him closer to the West requires that he feel the heat of Western displeasure with his outrageously anti-democratic behavior.
None of these alternatives is beyond the realm of real possibility. But they will require leadership from the Biden administration that has been lacking. Secretary of State Blinken has been rightly preoccupied with avoiding the slippery slope to a wider war in the Middle East. President Biden himself needs to lead the effort to reverse counterproductive policies. Only he can win Congressional approval for the Ukraine aid, end Israel’s massive assault in Gaza, and block Serbia from its anti-democratic course.
RSS - Posts
