Category: Uncategorized
Netanyahu should resign, but he won’t
These are the “provisional measures” in today’s decision at the International Court of Justice on Israeli behavior in Gaza:
(1) The State of Israel shall immediately suspend its military operations in and against
Gaza.(2) The State of Israel shall ensure that any military or irregular armed units which may
be directed, supported or influenced by it, as well as any organisations and persons
which may be subject to its control, direction or influence, take no steps in
furtherance of the military operations referred to [in] point (1) above.(3) The Republic of South Africa and the State of Israel shall each, in accordance with
their obligations under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the
Crime of Genocide, in relation to the Palestinian people, take all reasonable
measures within their power to prevent genocide.(4) The State of Israel shall, in accordance with its obligations under the Convention on
the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, in relation to the
Palestinian people as a group protected by the Convention on the Prevention and
Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, desist from the commission of any and all
acts within the scope of Article II of the Convention, in particular:
(a) killing members of the group;
(b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to the members of the group;
(c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about
its physical destruction in whole or in part; and
(d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group.(5) The State of Israel shall, pursuant to point (4) (c) above, in relation to Palestinians,
desist from, and take all measures within its power including the rescinding of
relevant orders, of restrictions and/or of prohibitions to prevent:
(a) the expulsion and forced displacement from their homes;
(b) the deprivation of:
(i) access to adequate food and water;
(ii) access to humanitarian assistance, including access to adequate fuel,
shelter, clothes, hygiene and sanitation;
(iii) medical supplies and assistance; and
(c) the destruction of Palestinian life in Gaza.(6) The State of Israel shall, in relation to Palestinians, ensure that its military, as well
as any irregular armed units or individuals which may be directed, supported or
otherwise influenced by it and any organizations and persons which may be subject
to its control, direction or influence, do not commit any acts described in (4) and (5)
above, or engage in direct and public incitement to commit genocide, conspiracy to
commit genocide, attempt to commit genocide, or complicity in genocide, and
insofar as they do engage therein, that steps are taken towards their punishment
pursuant to Articles I, II, III and IV of the Convention on the Prevention and
Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.(7) The State of Israel shall take effective measures to prevent the destruction and
ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of
Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of
Genocide; to that end, the State of Israel shall not act to deny or otherwise restrict
access by fact-finding missions, international mandates and other bodies to Gaza to
assist in ensuring the preservation and retention of said evidence.(8) The State of Israel shall submit a report to the Court on all measures taken to give
effect to this Order within one week, as from the date of this Order, and thereafter
at such regular intervals as the Court shall order, until a final decision on the case is
rendered by the Court.(9) The State of Israel shall refrain from any action and shall ensure that no action is
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-ord-01-00-en.pdf
taken which might aggravate or extend the dispute before the Court or make it more
difficult to resolve.
While some media have headlined this to indicate the ICJ did not order a ceasefire, it is hard to see how Israel could comply without one, in particular with item (1). Israel’s ad hoc judge, appointed for this specific case, voted with a Ugandan judge against items 1, 2, 5, and 6.
Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected what he termed these “outrageous” decisions. This failure in court represents the latest in a series of clamorous Netanyahu failures. His governments have failed to cut support for Hamas, which he viewed as preventing a cohesive Palestinian Authority, giving him an excuse not to negotiate. His government failed to foresee the October 7 Hamas attack and to respond quickly and effectively. The Israel Defense Forces have failed in the 3.5 months since to achieve their declared objectives of destroying Hamas and gaining freedom for most of the hostages.
He should resign but likely won’t. He regards himself and his fate as the equivalent of the Israeli state’s. L’etat c’est lui. Only 15% of the country wants him as prime minister once the war is over. A resignation now would end not only his political career but likely also his personal freedom, as he would then have to face corruption charges.
Netanyahu has steered Israel in an illiberal ethnonationalist direction for much of the past 30 years, during which he has served as prime minister for 16. He has consistently opposed a Palestinian state. He now governs with blatant racists and Jewish supremacists whose behavior has convinced the ICJ that Israel is committing genocide. If Israel faces an existential threat, Netanyahu has created it. It is time for him to go.
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What’s the alternative to counterproductive?
Last week, I claimed that Russia, Israel, the EU and US are all pursuing counterproductive policies, respectively in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Balkans. But reasonable people will ask: what’s the alternative? So here I offer some answers.
Russia needs to lose
In Ukraine, it is clear Russia cannot gain more territory with its current force configuation. Putin’s best bet is a negotiation that would leave his forces in place. That would give them time to re-group, re-arm, and reinforce. Rumors circulated at the end of last year that he was looking for such a pause. In the meanwhile, he will use his political allies in Europe and the US to continue to block the respective $55 billion and $50 billion aid packages. That could weaken Ukrainian will and cause Kyiv to cave.
The best bet for the US and EU is to approve those aid packages as quickly as possible. They should also lift any qualitative restrictions on arms exports to Ukraine. The sooner Kyiv gets what it needs to retake all of its territory, including Crimea, the quicker this war will end. There is no evidence that Russia can or will escalate in response. To the contrary, its economy is weakening and Russians are wanting an end to the war.
Israel needs to hold Netanyahu accountable
Israeli policy on Gaza has been misconceived. Before October 7, Prime Minister Netanyahu relied on and helped finance Hamas to govern the Palestinians there. That also ensured they could not unite political with those in the West Bank. Now he is relying on continuation of the war to postpone any political reckoning inside Israel. He after all is responsible for the Israel Defense Forces’ lack of preparedness and slowness in response to the October 24 terrorist assault. No one expects him to survive in the prime ministry once the war subsides.
Destroying Hamas’ capability of carrying out another attack does not depend on leveling Gaza or killing tens of thousands of civilians. It will require a concerted effort to hunt the perpetrators. I’d prefer Israel bring them to trial, but the Israelis are more likely just to kill them. That would certainly not constitute anything like mass murder, crimes against humanity, or genocide. A good part of the Arab world would breathe a sigh of relief. The rest of the world might even applaud.
The US and EU need to focus their efforts in the right place
In the Balkans, the US and EU are ignoring what is important and focusing on trivia. They have failed to react effectively to Belgrade’s sponsorship of the September 24 terrorist attack inside northern Kosovo. Washington and Brussels have also failed to respond to Belgrade’s free but unfair and fraudulent elections on December 17. They have allowed, once again, celebration of an illegal, genocide-promoting holiday in Republika Srpska, the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia and Herzegvona.
The alternative is to focus on what counts and do it together. Their conclusions about the September 24 attack should be published and “consequences” levied on Belgrade until it turns over the perpetrators to Kosovo for trial. Brussels and Washington should demand a re-run of the fraudulent Belgrade election. Allowing Presdent Vucic impunity is not going to get him to embrace the West. His policy is hedging. Pulling him closer to the West requires that he feel the heat of Western displeasure with his outrageously anti-democratic behavior.
None of these alternatives is beyond the realm of real possibility. But they will require leadership from the Biden administration that has been lacking. Secretary of State Blinken has been rightly preoccupied with avoiding the slippery slope to a wider war in the Middle East. President Biden himself needs to lead the effort to reverse counterproductive policies. Only he can win Congressional approval for the Ukraine aid, end Israel’s massive assault in Gaza, and block Serbia from its anti-democratic course.
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Counterproductive is not good strategy
2024 is starting badly. Let’s review the main acts on the stages I watch.
In the Middle East, it’s chaos all around
Israel’s war on Gaza is now approaching the three-month mark. Most of Gaza is now rubble. Its population is hungry, thirsty, cold, sick, and unhoused. The Israelis have killed perhaps 8000 Hamas fighters, along with well over twenty thousand civilians. But Hamas retains the bulk of its force and continues to launch rockets and fight back.
The Israeli right wants to transport a significant number of Palestinians to Egypt or elsewhere in Africa. Such a forced displacement would be a war crime. Nor is it clear how displacement to the Sinai, which borders Israel as much as Gaza does, would improve Israel’s security situation.
The Israelis are assassinating both Hizbollah and Hamas leaders with strikes in Lebanon, which risks expansion of the war. The Houthis in Yemen have already expanded the war to the Red Sea, where they trying to strike merchant and naval vessels. The Americans will respond if that continues.
In Iran, a terrorist bomb killed at least 100 people at a memorial event for Qasim Suleimani, the former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader the US assassinated in 2020. ISIS claimed responsibility, but Iran as usual blames the US and Israel.
The Israeli crackdown on the West Bank continues apace, along with Jewish settler violence against Palestinians there. Palestinians talk about “from the river to the sea.” Israelis are doing it.
The Americans are still shipping weapons to Israel and vetoing most UN Security Council resolutions, but frictions with Israel over humanitarian assistance, the widening war, and the eventual political outcome in Gaza are real.
Net result: chaos all around. This serves Prime Minister Netanyahu well, as it allows him to continue the war and blocks political change at home. But it serves his country poorly, as Israel is stretched and faces increasing tension with Iran and its surrogates.
In Ukraine, a vulnerable moment
According to @k_sonin “Over the whole 2023 year Putin gained 0.01 percent of the Ukrainian territory:
Russian forces still occupy about 18% of Ukraine. But Kyiv has neutralized the Russian Navy and succeeded in protecting Ukraine’s outgoing grain shipments through the Black Sea. Ukrainians appear as unified as ever in wanting to remove Russian troops entirely from sovereign Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
The biggest threat to Ukraine today comes from Europe and the US. Both are having trouble getting legislative approval for their latest aid packages, of $55 billion and $50 billion respectively. In the US this issue will likely be resolved, one way or the other, soon as budget deadlines loom. The situation in Europe is less clear.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is proving as determined in pursuing counterproductive policies as Prime Minister Netanyahu. He has unified NATO, pushed Finland and now Sweden into the Alliance, and scared countries all around Russia’s periphery into beefing up their defenses.
The Balkans continue to deteriorate
Belgrade’s purposeful effort to establish de facto control of Serb populations in neighboring countries continues.
While President Vucic doesn’t talk “Serbian home,” he is doing it. He is unlikely to support secession of Republika Srpska. But he is openly supporting Milorad Dodik’s effort in Bosnia and Herzegovina to extract the Serb entity from the authority of the Sarajevo government and legal system. With a lot of help from the Serbian Orthodox Church, Belgrade has also succeeded in getting a pro-Serbian, pro-Russian government installed in Montenegro.
In Kosovo, Belgrade has outdone itself. It has
- Removed Serbs from Pristina’s police, courts, and administration in the northern four municipalities with Serb majorities.
- Sponsored a boycott of municipal elections.
- Rented mobs to protest the election of non-Serb mayors and to attack NATO-led peacekeepers.
- Kidnapped police from Kosovo’s territory.
- Trained and equipped a September 24 terrorist operation intended to create the pretext for military intervention.
- Denied the validity of agreements the US and EU claim are legally binding.
- Run unfair and fraudulent elections and is violently repressing the resulting protests.
The EU and US reaction has been underwhelming. Washington and Brussels have done nothing to counter Serbia’s defiance. The meager result is Belgrade’s acceptance of Kosovo license plates without covering the offensive “R” for “Republic.” Unless and until there are real consequences, Serbia will continue its drift eastward into the arms of Putin, Xi, Aliyev, Lukashenko, and Orban.
The wrong directions
Israel, Russia, the EU and the US are all pursuing counterproductive strategies. You don’t get where you want to go by heading in the wrong direction.
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Free, unfair, and fraudulent
Twenty-four hours has given me enough time to realize my assessment yesterday of the Serbian elections Sunday was incomplete. The national poll no doubt reflected the will of the citizens, expressed after a free but unfair campaign in which the government, especially the President, put a thumb heavily on the scale. He may not merit the absolute majority in parliament he gained, but no one else came close.
Belgrade was different
That is not true of the Belgrade city council election. The authorities assured the opposition they would accept any outcome in that poll. But Vucic and his coalition concentrated their election-day cheating budget on buying municipal votes and shipping in voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Montenegro and Kosovo. That ensured a narrow but fraudulent victory in Belgrade.
OSCE has neglected to document it, but there is ample anecdotal evidence of the municipal election fraud. Many of the people involved presumably had the right to vote. They could have done it more conveniently in Bosnia. But tens of thousands came by the busload to vote in Belgrade, where many lacked addresses. Coorindators guided them to polling places. No doubt the government paid for those buses as well as the people who organized the effort. Vucic’s relatively narrow margin of victory in Belgrade (39%/35%) has prompted protests that the government will no doubt ignore. If they grow, the police will use violence to end them.
Why it matters
Americans may find it difficult to understand the out-sized significance of municipal elections in a capital city. The Democrats have controlled Washington DC for the past 50 years of home rule. But Republicans cherish their ability to monkey with the city’s legislation, which requires approval in Congress. In many European countries, control of the capital is regarded as second in importance only to control of the national government. That is the case in Serbia. Losing Belgrade would be a big headline. Many would regard it as a bellwether for the future.
That’s not the only problem for Vucic. He controls patronage and public works in Belgrade. His approval is required for any major projects and important hires. The local police do his will. Ceding those privileges to the opposition would limit his power and undermine his authority even at the national level. Who wants to pay to play with someone who can’t deliver? No elected autocrat wants to deal with an opposition mayor in the capital.
What to do about it
First and foremost, the US and EU should be cognizant of the failure of electoral democracy in Serbia. In most of the rest of the Balkans, free, pretty fair, and honest elections are now the rule. In Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bosnia alternation in power is a real possibility. That is no any longer the case in Serbia. Vucic has restored something much like Milosevic’s regime, which was also an electoral autocracy. Buttressed by media control and state resources, Vucic has rendered the opposition powerless, obliterated independent institutions, and gained command of all the levers of power.
Next Brussels and Washington need to adjust their expectations accordingly. Vucic has told them he will do nothing to recognize Kosovo, even de facto. They need to believe him and give up the ambitions of a dialogue with Pristina that has proven fruitless. They also need to give up trying to win Serbia for the West. Belgrade has embraced its eastern destiny. Vucic wants to ride with Putin and Xi, as well as Orban, Lukashenko, and Aliyev. He has no interest in riding with Biden, von der Leyen, Scholz, or Sunak.
But the Americans and European should not give up on the Serbian opposition. The Serbia Against Violence coalition that won one-fourth of the parliament has tapped into serious discontent and generated large and regular demonstrations. Only a mass movement of that sort will be capable of mobilizing Serbs against someone who is claiming the mantle of Milosevic. Free, unfair, and fraudulent was his approach too.
PS: @AlexandravonNah, Deutsche Welle, is reporting:
“We should not speak about fair election. It was unfair,” Stefan Schennach, one of the heads of the OSCE election observers’ delegation to Serbia, tells us. He adds: “The victory in Belgrade was stolen from the opposition.” His teams reported that the pro-western alliance ‘Serbia against violence’ got in all polling stations here twice as many votes than the ruling party. The official results do not reflect that.
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Serbia should defeat Vucic, not Kosovo
Jakub is correct. American acceptance without substantial protest of the terrorist act attempted on September 24 in northern Kosovo is incompatible with any serious shift in US policy in the Balkans. Appeasement knows few limits. The Belgrade-sponored and -trained insurrectionists were not freedom fighters. They were proxies doing the Serbian state’s will against the Kosovo state, which the US recognizes and supposedly prizes as a partner.
This is nuts
Six weeks have passed without any apparent US or EU reaction, beyond mild scolding. In the meanwhile Serbian President Vucic has snubbed the EU in favor of attending a Beijing-hosted Belt and Road Summit.
Not surprisingly, the latest EU-sponsored meeting between Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti failed to make progress. The EU and US want Kurti to institute an Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASMM) without any serious quid pro quo from Vucic. He is unwilling even to see Kosovo join the UN despite a supposedly “legally binding” February agreement not to block it from international organizations. I quote from Article 4: “Serbia will not object to Kosovo’s membership in any international organisation.” Bilateral recognition, Vucic persistently says, is out of the question.
The fault lies mainly in Belgrade
Serbia is mainly at fault for the present stalemate. It has refused to abide by agreements the EU and US claim are legally binding. The backstory includes Belgrade urging Serbs not to use Kosovo license plates, to boycott Kosovo elections, and to attack Kosovo police and international peacekeepers. Belgrade does not abide even by the 2013 agreement that launched the idea of the ASMM, which provides for the Kosovo constitution to be applied in the north, with ample provisions for Serb participation.
Nevertheless the EU is sustaining its “consequences” on Kosovo. They were levied to get duly-elected but non-Serb mayors from using their offices in northern Kosovo municipal buildings and to force Kosovo to reduce its police presence there. Only one of the four mayors I am told is going to his municipal building. The Kosovo police presence has been reduced due to improved security conditions. But there is no sign of easing on the EU’s part.
The Association
The nub of the issue is the Association. The EU gave Vucic and Kurti drafts of its statutes at their last meeting. I hoped it would have leaked by now, but apparently it hasn’t. The key question is whether the proposal guarantees that the Association will operate in accordance with the Kosovo constitution and not constitute a new layer of governance like Republika Srpska in Bosnia. That has rendered Bosnia dysfunctional. Republika Srpska originated in six Serb Autonomous Regions, which united to form the larger entity. That is a precedent the US and EU should not allow.
I’ve seen no guarantee they won’t. The Americans have published an op/ed that says it won’t happen. But they aren’t willing to sign on the dotted line to prevent it. Nor are the Europeans prepared to commit. Without such a guarantee, an elaborate proposal like the one from the European Institute of Peace and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung runs the risk of laying the groundwork for partition of Kosovo and secession.
The right way forward
The Americans succeeded last week in forcing the resignation of Serbian Security Information Agency chief Aleksandar Vulin. He is a diehard advocate of the “Serbian world,” which is code for Greater Serbia and entails Kosovo partition. It would be hard to doubt that he backed the September 24 plot, providing material as well as political support. But his resignation is no substitute for a major shift in Belgrade policy, which can only come from from the mouth of President Vucic. He needs to acknowledge responsibility for the September 24 plot, apologize, and pledge nothing like it will happen again.
The odds of that are nil to zero. Vucic has called parliamentary and local elections for December 17, hoping they will shore up his flaging support. Or at least give him a renewed mandate. He won’t be apologizing to Kosovo for anything in the middle of an election campaign. Nor thereafter.
The best that can happen now is defeat of the present governing coalition. The opposition claims it has united as “Serbia Against Violence.” That is good news. Now they need to focus on getting their often young, left/liberal, environmentalist, and anti-violence voters to the polls. Serbia should defeat Vucic. Not Kosovo.
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The dialogue is dead, so what’s next?
Since before 2013 the US and EU have sponsored a “political” dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia intended to “normalize” their relations. This effort recently has been based on a German-French initiative aimed at a “two Germanies”-type agreement. East and West Germany in 1972 agreed to “…develop normal good neighbourly relations with each other on the basis of equal rights.” The result for the Balkans was a Brussels agreement promulgated in February and an Ohrid implementation plan promulgated in March. Kosovo has accepted both and offered to sign on the dotted line. Serbia has rejected both and refused to sign.
Belgrade also sponsored an attempted insurrection in northern Kosovo on September 24. It was intended to precipitate a Kosovo police reaction that would justify a Serbian military intervention. Serbia has celebrated the insurrectionists, whom it armed and trained. Belgrade has not taken responsibility or apologized for the terrorist acts its agents perpetrated.
This brings to an end any serious prospect for progress in the dialogue as presently constituted. So what is next? First, a careful look at what went wrong is in order.
Misjudgments
The European and American diplomats misjudged Belgrade, which has always insisted it would not recognize Kosovo. This explicitly includes any “back door” recognition, which is what the recent “normalization” non-agreements intended. Serbia has continued instead to look for, or create, opportunities to control the four northern Kosovo municipalities with Serbian majorities. President Vucic attempted to negotiate their annexation to Serbia with former Kosovo President Thaci. He has now tried to create a pretext for annexing them by military force.
The Americans and Europeans also misjudged Pristina. They attempted to force Prime Minister Kurti to create an Association of Serb Majority Municipalities. That would provide Vucic with the control over northern Kosovo he has sought. While the Americans promised not to allow the Association to become a governing entity, they have not been willing to show how they would prevent that from happening or to guarantee it in a formal governmental agreement.
Mistaken realignment towards Serbia
The Europeans have also failed to put their own house in order. Five European Union member states do not recognize Kosovo. This split in the EU has weakened its mediator, Miroslav Lajcak. In addition, Hungary, though a recognizer, has aligned itself with Russia and Serbia against Kosovo. The result is a lowest common denominator EU policy that is more respectful of Belgrade’s interests than Pristina’s.
The Americans have also aligned themselves more with Belgrade than Pristina in recent years. This appeasement was intended to move Serbia closer to the West and away from Russia and China. That effort has blatantly failed. Serbia has repeatedly preferred its military relations with Russia and its commercial relations with China over strengthened relations with the United States or Europe.
What would work better
First the Europeans and Americans need to correct their errors. This would mean rebalancing policy towards Pristina and away from Belgrade. It also means dropping overly ambitious goals. The Association and even backdoor recognition are not feasible, the former because of concerns in Pristina and the latter because of concerns in Belgrade.
The so-called “technical” dialogue that Belgrade and Pristina pursued prior to 2013 was far more successful than the “political” dialogue that came thereafter. It produced numerous agreements intended to improve life in both Kosovo and Serbia. Some have not been fully implemented. It is high time to return to those. Some may need revision.
To ensure implementation, the Americans and Europeans could form a monitoring group like the International Civilian Office that ensured implementation of the pledges Kosovo made at the time of independence. Such a group should include, in addition to prominent European and American leaders, Kosovo and Serbian government representatives as well as nongovernmental organizations. The aim should be 100 per cent implementation of the existing technical agreements and any additional ones reached.
One of the most important missing ingredients in relations between Serbia and Kosovo is personal contact. While at the leadership level they know each other well, the societies do not. The Europeans would do well to sponsor a major citizen-to-citizen effort, like the one that improved relations between France and Germany after World War II.
Postpone the politics
Some will be concerned that postponing the “final comprehensive agreement” would be a mistake. Certainly Kosovo needs recognition and United Nations membership as soon as possible. But it is not possible with the current political leadership in Belgrade and its alignment with Moscow and Beijing. Nor is the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities possible for the current political leadership in Pristina, especially in the wake of the September 24 terrorist attack. Both these agenda items should be postponed to the end of the normalization process.
The political situation is not “ripe.” There is no “mutually enticing way out.” Nor is there European and American will to ripen the conflict or create a mutually enticing way out. Conflict management types will recognize these as the necessary conditions for a successful negotiation. But there are lots of things to do other than final status. Without political will, the technical dialogue should be prioritized.
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