Category: Uncategorized
Too broad is too narrow
Some of my most respected colleagues (read Fred Hof) are exorcised beyond reason by President Obama’s two week delay in going to war to punish and deter Syrian chemical weapons use. They are conveniently forgetting a lot of history.
Let’s leave aside FDR’s more than two-year delayed entry into World War II, after Germany had conquered a large part of Europe and only in response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. There is also Bill Clinton, now regarded as a great success because of the Dayton agreements. He delayed 3.5 years after promising he would intervene in Bosnia and only did it once Senator Dole, his re-election opponent, started making political hay on the broken promise. The march to war in Kosovo was a circuitous one, marked by spineless and failed diplomatic initiatives and the undying hope of bringing the Russians on board, who eventually did give us a wink and a nod.
Famously, George W. Bush rushed to war, first in Afghanistan with good early results (but not the same longer-term outcome) and then in Iraq, with well-known and less than satisfactory consequences.
There is nothing unusual, or inherently bad, with delay in going to war. The delays are often forgotten. The results are always remembered.
The real question is what use the Administration makes of the time it has given itself. So far it has chosen to focus on a narrow goal: deter, disrupt, prevent and degrade the ability to use chemical weapons. But it proposes a wide military mandate, unlimited in time and even permitting boots on the ground.
Here I agree with Fred: a broader strategy is in order. A broader strategy starts with broader goals. Use of chemical weapons is not the only US interest in Syria. We also have an interest in regional stability, which is at risk if the war goes on much longer. The outflux of Syrian refugees threatens the stability of Lebanon, now the unfortunate recipient of more refugees per capita than any other country in the world, Jordan, Iraq and possibly Turkey. And we need to ensure that the war does not end with Syria providing help and haven either to Al Qaeda or their Shia analogues like Hizbollah. None of these goals are achievable with Bashar al Asad in power.
Getting him out will require diplomatic as well as military means, including tighter sanctions, support for the democratic opposition, closer coordination with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and negotiations with Russia and Iran. Military means, which are a blunt and potentially counterproductive instrument, may nevertheless also be useful, if they tilt the battlefield back in the direction of the opposition. The Congress can make a real contribution: by insisting on pursuit of an early political solution, using the full spectrum of instruments of American power to achieve US interests going beyond the goals associated with chemical weapons.
The military mandate the Administration has proposed may be too broad, but its goals, and the means needed to achieve them, are too narrow.
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Peace picks, September 3-6
It was Labor Day in the US yesterday and Rosh Hashanah (New Year’s) for Jews worldwide Thursday evening, Friday and Saturday. So a quiet week in DC:
1. The Need for Speed? Debating Conventional Prompt Global Strike, Carnegie Endowment
September 3, 2013 Washington, DC
12:30 PM – 2:00 PM EST
The long-held U.S. goal of striking distant targets with non-nuclear weapons in just minutes has always been controversial. In the current fiscal environment, however, an impending decision to acquire Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) weapons will be especially hotly debated. While the conversation surrounding CPGS has largely focused on one particular risk—the possibility of Russia’s misinterpreting a prompt conventional weapon as nuclear-armed—the program raises a much broader set of issues that merit debate, from the need to respond to adverse changes in the security environment to the management of escalation in a serious conflict.
James M. Acton will examine the big picture by exploring the full range of questions—military, strategic, technological, and financial—raised by CPGS. The discussion will also mark the release of Acton’s new report Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike. George Perkovich will moderate.
Copies of the report will be available.
2. Narrative Roundtable: From Narratives of Violence to Narratives of Peace: The Renunciation of Violence as a Discursive Phenomenon, George Mason University
Tuesday, September 3rd, 2-4pm
The Metropolitan Building
3434 N. Washington Blvd
5th Floor, Room: 5183
Refreshments will be served
Much work has been done on the prevention of violence, but less focus has been granted towards encouraging individuals already affiliated with violent organizations to leave. One reason may be the inherent difficulty of getting people who have already formed an identity around violence to change. However, such change does occur among some individuals, and this roundtable will explore how we can understand—and encourage—this transformation through the lens of narrative dynamics.
During this roundtable we will explore the complex process of how individuals who have renounced violence make sense of their transformation by framing their change as a process of narrative identity transformation. The presentation will be grounded in dissertation research that applied a morphological analysis of the narratives of former gang members, right-wing extremists, and terrorists. The findings will be explored to highlight possible ways this process of renunciation can be facilitated through the presence of specific discourses around transformation.
BIO:
Agatha Glowacki is currently a PhD Candidate at George Mason’s School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (SCAR). She has worked for various US government agencies on issues pertaining to terrorist radicalization, including extremist propaganda and programs to prevent violent extremism. Her work on terrorist disengagement inspired her dissertation research, which has focused on the narrative processes of renouncing violence. Agatha earned her Master’s degree in European Studies from Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland, where she was also a U.S. Fulbright Scholar. She received her BA in Government from Harvard.
3. After Snowden: The G-20 Forum and the Crisis in US-Russian Relations – What Next? Heritage Foundation, 12-1 pm September 4
The Kremlin delivered a diplomatic blow to U.S.–Russian relations when Moscow granted former NSA analyst Edward Snowden a temporary political asylum. Now, the White House has cancelled a U.S.–Russia summit that was scheduled for early September, and Obama’s Russian “reset” policy is facing its moment of truth. The crisis in Syria and the Snowden affair puts Russian President Vladimir Putin in the position of strength vis-à-vis Obama—which is where Putin wants to be in relation to foreign counterparts. As in the case with the Iran sanctions, Afghanistan transit, the Tsarnaev brothers information, the arms transfers to Bashar el-Assad, it is Putin who has something that America wants, and it is the U.S. that is coming to Russia to beg. With Putin in the strong bargaining position, the White House is maneuvered into the position of weakness, looking even worse than Jimmy Carter.
Yet it comes at a price. The U.S.–Russian relations are strained as never before, and any destabilizing factor creates a serious problem. While pragmatists believe that the White House and the Kremlin have too much to lose, the damage has been already done—and is getting worse. Of course, the U.S.–Russian relations are based on pursuit of national interest. However, they are increasingly poisoned by the ideological rejection of the West and the U.S. by the Russian ruling elite. The domestic crackdown, including anti-NGO legislation, the ban on orphan adoption to the US, prosecution of political opponents – all these complicate the ability of Russia and the US to do business together.
In addition, the G-20 gathering in St. Petersburg will be another photo-op event to discuss a wide range of international economic issues. Yet, a clear focus is needed not to repeat the debates in other fora. What should the US – and especially the US Congress – do to protect America’s interests and support our friends in Russia? What should the G-20 leaders do to restore economic growth? Join us for a discussion on the upcoming G-20 summit and U.S.-Russia bilateral relations.
More About the Speakers
Featuring Keynote Remarks by
The Honorable Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, United States Department of Defense
Followed by a Panel with
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Donald N. Jensen, Ph.D.
Resident Fellow, The Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University
Kyle Parker
Policy Advisor for Eurasia, The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe
James M. Roberts
Research Fellow For Economic Freedom and Growth Center for International Trade and Economics, The Heritage Foundation
Join the Arms Control Association (ACA) and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for an assessment of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the elements required for a deal that could provide both sides with a “win-win” outcome.
Copies of the newly updated edition of ACA’s 44-page briefing book on “Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle” will be available at the event.
Colin Kahl
Colin Kahl is an associate professor in the Security Studies Program in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, where he teaches courses on international relations, international security, the geopolitics of the Middle East, American foreign policy, and civil and ethnic conflict. He is also a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
David Albright
David Albright is founder and President of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in Washington, D.C. He regularly conducts scientific research, publishes in numerous technical and policy journals, and is often cited in the media. His book Peddling Peril: How the Secret Nuclear Trade Arms America’s Enemies was listed by The Atlantic as one of the best foreign affairs books of 2010.
George Perkovich
George Perkovich is vice president for studies and director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation, with a concentration on South Asia, Iran, and the problem of justice in the international political economy.
Daryl Kimball
Daryl Kimball has been Executive Director of the Arms Control Association since September 2001. Mr. Kimball is a frequent media commentator and has written and spoken extensively about nuclear arms control and non-proliferation. In 2004, the National Journal recognized Kimball as one of the ten key individuals whose ideas shape the policy debate on weapons proliferation.
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Peace picks, August 12-16
Just a few events in DC during a quiet mid-August week:
1. Between War & Peace: Do We Need New Tools For Messy Transitions?
| Date | Tuesday, August 13, 2013 |
| Time | 9:30 – 11 a.m. |
| Location | 1111 19th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20036 |
The office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction issued its final lessons learned report earlier this year. Among the recommendations was a call for establishing a new U.S. Office for Contingency Operations, for planning and implementing the diverse activities required in post-conflict deployments, not necessarily of the scale or purpose of the Iraq situation. Our panel will discuss the requirement for such a capability in the U.S. system, consider options to achieve greater planning and execution effectiveness, and also look at what tools and processes reside in the UN system.
Speakers:
Stuart W. Bowen, Jr., Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction
James A. Schear, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Partnership Strategy and Stability Operations
William Durch, Stimson Senior Associate and Co-director of the Future of Peace Operations program
Moderator:
Ellen Laipson, President and CEO, Stimson Center
2. How Perception Dictates Actions in Ambiguous Situations: Game Theory Analysis of the Third North Korean Nuclear Crisis
Jung Joo Kwon, Korea Foundation Junior Scholar, will present the results of her research conducted at the Wilson Center on the third North Korean nuclear crisis. Arguing that the perception of decision-makers plays as an important role in determining policy agenda as factors such as internal, external and systemic settings, Kwon suggests that it is important to analyze how perceptions and images are formed. Game theory provides a valid analytical tool to explore the decision-making process in international relations in general and in the case of North Korea in particular. Through game theory analysis, Kwon identifies the patterns of perception/misperception around the third North Korean nuclear crisis in order to understand the shift of powers and policies at the time.
James Person, Senior Program Associate with the History and Public Policy Program, will chair and comment on Kwon’s discussion.
Jung Joo Kwon is presently a Korea Foundation Junior Scholar in residence at the Wilson Center. Kwon is completing a master’s degree in International Affairs and Governance at the University of St. Gallen St. Gallen, Switzerland, working on a thesis entitled “Escaping Middle Income Trap in Asia through the National Innovative Capacity: Focused on the Case of South Korea.” She previously earned a Master’s of Arts in International Management from the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, and a Bachelor’s of Arts in Business Administration from Hanyang University.
Location:
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Live better live longer
I’m preparing to fly to the Netherlands tonight, so I’m taking the easy way out and offering you this TED talk, which my wife recommended, in lieu of a proper blog post:
Those of you who know me will understand that this is not easy advice for me to take. I do okay on the physical and mental dimensions, but on the emotional and social I’m a laggard. Here’s hoping that you will find it easier than I do to reach out and touch someone!
PS: Yes, there are connections here to war and peace issues.
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Development boy
We owe this to Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs:
SAISers: can you match that?
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