Category: Uncategorized
Future trouble is Gaza’s fate
The Israelis continue to pound Gaza, two weeks after the heinous terrorist attack Hamas mounted against Israel. We don’t know how much the bombardment has hurt Hamas. Its militants presumably hide underground and among the civilian population. But it has certainly harmed ordinary Palestinians. They are suffering horribly as well from the embargo on food, water, and fuel going into Gaza.
The better option right now
Well-meaning people are calling for a ceasefire. But Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) would use a ceasefire to re-organize and re-arm. That would lengthen the conflict and prolong the agony of Gazan civilians. A ceasefire would also require international monitors. It is hard to imagine where those would come from.
A bombing pause would be a better option right now. The bombing hinders all aspects of civilian life in Gaza and will block delivery of humanitarian aid. It started to flow through the Rafah Crossing from Egypt this morning. Observers aren’t needed to monitor a bombing pause, which should apply to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as well as Israel. Remote observation would suffice. Hamas and PIJ could try to use a bombing pause to re-arm, but Israel would be able to conduct raids to prevent that from happening.
The question of war aims
The Defense Minister told a Knesset committee yesterday that Israel’s war aims are
- destruction of Hamas’ military infrastructure;
- destruction of pockets of resistance;
- removal of Israel’s responsibility for life in Gaza and establishment of a new security reality for Israelis.
These are far more reasonable aims than I’ve seen quoted elsewhere. It makes no sense to destroy Hamas’ civilian governing infrastructure. That will be needed even during, and also after, the war to distribute humanitarian aid and health services as well as re-start education and other social services.
The ground invasion makes no sense
But the minister also appeared to promise a ground invasion: “Whoever sees Gaza from afar now, will see it from the inside.”
This makes no sense. Re-occupation of Gaza would be “fiendishly difficult,” to quote David Petraeus. The Israeli army knows that well. It has done it before. Now would be far more difficult, as Hamas is a formidable foe and well-entrenched. Israel’s cadres are largely reservists, not the professional special operations guys needed to ferret out Hamas. They will suffer many fewer casualties supporting the professionals from just outside Gaza rather than inside.
The new security reality
It is unclear what the minister meant by a new security reality. If it means higher walls and a tighter embargo, that is a formula for further radicalization in Gaza. Iran would no doubt like that and re-arm the radicals as best it could.
Israel will be tempted to try to re-implant the Palestinian Authority security forces in Gaza. But the PA has lost a lot of credibility with Palestinians. Its performance in the West Bank does not bode well. Hamas remnants would of course conduct guerilla operations against any PA presence.
I can imagine a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza. But which countries would be prepared to lend it personnel? It would require tens of thousands of Arabic speakers. Egypt would decline, as it doesn’t take on more responsibility for Gaza. The Gulf would be uninterested. The North Africans likewise. Conditions at home would prevent Sudan, Yemen, Syria, or Iraq from lending a hand. Jordan would be skittish.
A wicked problem
Gaza poses wicked problems for which we don’t appear to have answers. Any attempt to solve one creates many others. Israelis are understandably less inclined to compromise than before the October 7 Hamas attack, even as Arabs understandably move towards more sympathy with Palestinians. That could mean trouble for a long time into the future.
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Imbalance is not good for negotiations
Naile Ejupe of Pristina daily Bota sot asked questions last Saturday. I answered:
Bota sot: On Thursday, the meeting between the prime minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, and the Serbian president, Aleksandër Vucic, was held, the meeting had no result and there is disagreement between what kind of internationals and what Kosovo accepts, what is your comment about the meeting?
A: The internationals are insisting on a single priority: the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities. That offers nothing to Pristina. It is not surprising that this dialogue is not going anywhere.
The Association has become an absolute priority for Brussels, Washington, and Belgrade
Bota sot: Is Serbia conditioning the dialogue through the association and why is such a thing allowed
A: I’m not sure it is only Serbia making the Association an absolute condition. Washington and Brussels seem to be doing it as well.
Bota sot: How should Kosovo act when the pressures for the establishment of the Association have already started to increase?
A: I’ll leave up to Kosovo’s authorities how they want to react. But I hope they do so in a way that seeks to improve relations with Washington and Brussels. Kosovo needs its friends.
The US and EU need to guarantee
Bota sot: We are witnesses that Serbia has not respected the agreements with Kosovo, who should guarantee that Serbia takes any steps after Kosovo accepts the association?
A: The EU and US need to be the guarantors. I see no sign they are serious about taking on that responsibility. That is part of the problem.
Bota sot: The president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, says that if he had said what Kurti declared “he would have been hanged in Berlin.” Here he refers to Prime Minister Kurti’s statement after the September 14 meeting, what Vučić is trying to do and how long will it continue to be tolerated?
A: You’ll have to ask the European and American diplomats how long they will tolerate it. I don’t see anything wrong with the refusal to accept the Association as a precondition, without any quid pro quo. Clearly the Association presents a threat to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity so long as Serbia has not recognized Kosovo. I advised Lajcak years ago that if the Association is necessary it can only come at the end of the process, along with recognition, not at the beginning.
Kosovo was better prepared than Serbia
Bota sot: Let’s stick to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his statement after the September 14 meeting, which he described as a difficult meeting, while the American ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill, then added that Serbia had “done its homework” and that “it was well prepared,” what difficulties can Vučić be talking about and what tasks has Serbia performed?
A: I saw no Serbian preparation for any serious concession to Kosovo. Belgrade’s preparation did however guarantee support for its perspective on the Association by Brussels and Washington. I am not a cheerleader for that accomplishment. That is what Pristina has to counter. I thought the Kosovo schedule for the talks a serious step in the right direction. I do not understand why it was not regarded as such.
Bota sot: Serbia is not stopping the inciting and threatening statements, a month ago the Serbian Minister of Defense said that Montenegro and North Macedonia offended Serbia by recognizing Kosovo’s independence, while Vučić on Friday (September 15) asked the Serbs of Montenegro demand the same rights as the Albanians in North Macedonia, is Serbia trying to interfere in the internal affairs of the countries of the region and thus destabilize the Balkans?
Serbia’s aim
A: Yes. Serbia’s aim is the Serbian world, which means at least de facto Belgrade control over the Serbs who live in neighboring countries. Serbia should not be asking for anything from its neighbors that it is not ready to offer to its neighbors.
Bota sot: While Serbia makes threatening statements, Kosovo is already under the punitive measures of the European Union due to the tense situation created in the north of the country after the elections and the placement of Albanian mayors in the municipalities, these measures are called unfair by Kosovo, while after the meeting on September 14 , the EU does not exclude other punitive measures, what is your comment about this?
A: Clearly Pristina needs to improved its relations with Brussels and Washington.
What endangers Kosovo
Bota sot: The representative of the EU for dialogue, Miroslav Lajçak, has given an ultimatum that the Kosovo-Serbia agreement be implemented by the end of the year, or there may be conflicts, how endangered is Kosovo and what conflicts could he be talking about?
A: You need to ask Miroslav what he is talking about. For me, the risk arises from any action, including a “false flag,” against Serbs in Kosovo that gives Belgrade an opportunity to claim it needs to move its army to the Ibar to protect Serbs. Protection of Serbs and other minorities is vital to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
There is of course also a risk of rioting by Serbs in the north against the non-Serb mayors or whatever police presence remains. But that went entirely unpunished last time it happened. I have no reason to believe it would be punished if it happened again. Washington’s tolerance for Serbian malfeasance appears unlimited.
Bota sot: Can visas for Kosovo citizens be suspended if the agreement is not implemented and if the association is not formed and how fair is this?
A: It would be completely unfair to suspend visas for Kosovo citizens. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
Better balance is needed
Bota sot: Finally, what after the fruitless talks in Brussels?
I don’t know. But if I were one of the mediators I would be looking for a balanced package at every step, not one that requires one side to move while the other does nothing.
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Stevenson’s army, September 11
– Intercept says Africom leader misled Congress.
– In FP, Cato analysts say Colombia is not proof US military can stop drug cartels.
– NYT says some Members oppose Ukraine aid despite benefits to their districts.
– Lawfare draws security assistance lessons from Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 8
-WaPo draws from new biography that Musk cut satellites to hinder Ukraine attack on Crimea.
– WaPo also has excerpt from the biography.
– Dan Drezner says Musk needs some foreign policy advisers.
– NYT warns pro-Russians lead in pending Slovakia elections
– Pro Publica criticizes the Littoral Combat Ship program
– NYT describes the upgraded Situation Room
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No need for panic about the 2024 election
It is starting to look as if Donald Trump has the Repubican nomination for President in the bag. This has struck panic into the hearts of many Americans and non-Americans, who correctly understand that the outcome of US elections is unpredictable. But they are wrong to panic this time around.
The Republicans
Trump has capture the Republican Party. Both the institution and its registered adherents support him. Two-thirds of Republicans want him as their candidate. Seventy-three per cent say they will vote for him.
He is opposed by more or less 10 competitors, none of whom come close to challenging him among the rank and file. Even if the Republican opposition to Trump were to coalesce around a single competitor willing to openly oppose him, the odds would be long. The Republican primaries will be a beauty contest with little import, though they may influence the choice of the party’s vice-presidential candidate.
Trump’s four indictments in recent weeks have done little to undermine his dominance among Republicans. He has used them to claim that the system is unfair and to portray himself as a victim, not a perpetrator.
That said, no Republican can win the popular vote in a presidential election with only 73% of registered Republicans. That’s one strike against Trump.
Independents
The indictments have not shaken Republican support for Trump, but most independents agree with Democrats that he should stand trial before the election and that he is guilty of the charges. They also agree that the Justice Department is fair and that if convicted Trump should go to prison.
It is hard to imagine how any true independents would shift their votes from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024. What has Trump done in the past three years to move votes in his direction? Americans are still dissatisfied with Biden and especially his handling of the economy. But inflation is down sharply (from 9% or so a year ago to 3% now) while employment has held up and wages are beating inflation. It may take some time for this news to change minds, but the economic facts are good, not bad.
Democrats
Biden’s support among Democrats is solidifying. Rumors of primary challenges are fading. Trump as the Republican nominee will guarantee that 90% or more of Democrats will vote for Biden. While his overall approval ratings have continued to lag, his rating on the economy has improved. He also gets relatively good marks on Ukraine and race relations, issues that many Democrats care about.
In some key states, Democrats are doing well. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are three states that were crucial in 2016 to Trump and in 2020 to Biden. They will likely be close again in 2024. But, unlike Texas and Florida, they are not out of reach for Biden. Younger voters there and elsewhere give the Democrats a decided advantage. This is especially true among young women, most of whom are displeased with Republican-supported restrictions on abortion.
The spoilers: economy, third parties, voter suppression, the electoral college
Despite this overall favorable prognosis for Biden, three spoilers need to be kept in mind.
The economy is always an important factor in American elections. While inflation is still an issue, the Federal Reserve has so far seemed to manage the situation well. It is easy to imagine that inflation by November 2024 will be at the target of 2% without a severe recession. But that is not guaranteed. If the economy is in recession next spring or summer, Biden’s support could weaken.
A third party candidacy could spoil the election for the Democrats. There are already several threats of such efforts, at least one funded mainly by Republican donors to weaken Biden.
Republican-controlled state legislatures have tried hard to suppress the votes of Democrats. Limiting mail-in ballots, drop boxes, early voting, and poll hours as well as heightening voter identity requirements are all thought to limit Democratic turnout. But past efforts of this sort appear to have stimulated defiance rather than abstention. Let’s hope that continues.
The Electoral College is the real joker in this pack. It elects the President based on results in the individual states, using a formula that generally favors smaller population states (which favor Republicans). Each state gets a number of Electoral Votes equivalent to its number of members of Congress. That is always two in the Senate (no matter how small the state) plus the number of Representatives in the House. Gerrymandering of districts in many states has inflated the number of Republicans in the House.
Bottom line
American elections are not predictable. But there is no reason for panic about 2024. Hillary Clinton in 2020 won the popular vote by 2.8 million. Biden won by more than 6 million. It is hard to imagine Trump doing much better than that. The key question will be the geographic distribution of Republican voters and third party supporters. That could tilt the Electoral College away from Biden. But you won’t know at the earliest until the day after. So stop panicking and start hoping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania do the right thing.
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Stevenson’s army, May 2
Hard to believe I am watching The Diplomat, and harder to believe that I am enjoying it, but I am. No, DCMs don’t spend all day outside the Embassy or get involved in their Ambassador’s marital problems. Nor do Ambassadors, especially professional ones, get tapped for VP. But still, it’s amusing. So:
– Congress has barely a month to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. Politico reports the state of play. CBO warns of the deadline. CRS has background on debt legislation and the “extraordinary measures” Treasury has been taking.
– Defense News updates how far DOD has pivoted to Asia.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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