Category: Uncategorized
Open Balkans is a dead letter
Colleague Ed Joseph tweeted an excellent reaction to Russian Foreign Minister’s endorsement of Open Balkans, which Belgrade and Tirana are advocating:
1/ Just as thanks go to #Putin for injecting life into @NATO, kudos to #SergeyLavrov for giving the kiss of death today to #OpenBalkan. This #Trump Administration brainchild advances the agenda of #Russia’s strategic partner in the region, #Serbia, under @avucic.
2/ #Russia’s main outlet in the country, Sputnik Serbia @rs_sputnik, has supported #OpenBalkans consistently. And why not?
3/ #OpenBalkan is open invitation for #Vucic to exploit #Serbia’s economic size for political advantage – free from political constraints or values of #EU. #OpenBalkan = ‘Serb World’ via the marketplace for Serbia’s smaller neighbors.
4/ Believing @avucic wants to join the #EU, US officials have bought into the notion that ‘#Trade Equals #Trust.’ What counts is the character of the regime you are trading with. Ask #Ukraine: up to 24 Feb, Russia has been a top trading partner of #Kyiv, for exports and imports.
5/ Ask #Japan, #SouthKorea or #Taiwan if trade has built trust with #China.
6/ Same story in the #Balkans. #Serbia is #Montenegro’s number one trading partner, for imports and exports – and #Belgrade is in last place in terms of trust. Montenegro PM’s recent endorsement of #OpenBalkan has exacerbated divisions in the country.
7/ Any polity in the #Balkans that faces direct threat from #Serbia is skeptical, if not suspicious of #OpenBalkan.
8/ As @EBRD has noted in its #Bosnia diagnostic, the core economic problems are political in nature. Just as #Putin has boosted @NATO, hopefully #Lavrov will boost the alternatives to #OpenBalkan that build a Regional Common Market on common #EU values.
My own reaction is less well put, in an interview for Kosovo’s RTV Dukagjini:
- What is your comment on the “Open Balkans”, do you think that Kosovo should be part of it?
A: The only circumstance in which Kosovo should even consider a proposition is if it is afforded equal status with the other sovereign states involved. That has not, I understand, been offered to Kosovo in Open Balkans, so the proposition should not even be considered.
2. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia has supported this initiative, what does this mean for the participating countries?
A: I think most of them will now have second thoughts about joining. Russia is not a welcome factor in the Balkans these days, with the exceptions of Serbia and Republika Srpska.
3. Do you think that such an initiative would be the right step for the Balkan countries?
A: Not really. Everything I’ve heard about Open Balkans suggests its activities could all be accomplished within the Berlin Process and SEFTA.
4. Do you think it is in the US interest if such an initiative is implemented?
A: I don’t but the US Government does. They get to call the shots.
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have said they will participate, does this mean that Kosovo is becoming isolated?
A: I’m not sure those positions will all be maintained. My guess is that under current circumstances, due to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, Open Balkans is a dead letter.
The economists destroy the linguist
Noam Chomsky thinks he knows a lot about Ukraine and Russia:
Dear Professor Chomsky,
We are a group of Ukrainian academic economists who were grieved by a series of your recent interviews and commentaries on the Russian war on Ukraine. We believe that your public opinion on this matter is counter-productive to bringing an end to the unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine and all the deaths and suffering it has brought into our home country.
Having familiarized ourselves with the body of your interviews on this matter, we noticed several recurring fallacies in your line of argument. In what follows, we wish to point out these patterns to you, alongside with our brief response:
Pattern #1: Denying Ukraine’s sovereign integrity
In your interview to Jeremy Scahill at The Intercept from April 14, 2022 you claimed: “The fact of the matter is Crimea is off the table. We may not like it. Crimeans apparently do like it.” We wish to bring to your attention several historical facts:
First, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 has violated the Budapest memorandum (in which it promised to respect and protect Ukrainian borders, including Crimea), the Treaty on Friendship, Partnership and Cooperation (which it signed with Ukraine in 1997 with the same promises), and, according to the order of the UN International Court of Justice, it violated the international law.
Second, “Crimeans” is not an ethnicity or a cohesive group of people – but Crimean Tatars are. These are the indigenous people of Crimea, who were deported by Stalin in 1944 (and were able to come back home only after the USSR fell apart), and were forced to flee again in 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea. Of those who stayed, dozens have been persecuted, jailed on false charges and missing, probably dead.
Third, if by ‘liking’ you refer to the outcome of the Crimean “referendum” on March 16, 2014, please note that this “referendum” was held at gunpoint and declared invalid by the General Assembly of the United Nations. At the same time, the majority of voters in Crimea supported Ukraine’s independence in 1991.
Pattern #2: Treating Ukraine as an American pawn on a geo-political chessboard
Whether willingly or unwillingly, your interviews insinuate that Ukrainians are fighting with Russians because the U.S. instigated them to do so, that Euromaidan happened because the U.S. tried to detach Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence, etc. Such an attitude denies the agency of Ukraine and is a slap in the face to millions of Ukrainians who are risking their lives for the desire to live in a free country. Simply put, have you considered the possibility that Ukrainians would like to detach from the Russian sphere of influence due to a history of genocide, cultural oppression, and constant denial of the right to self-determination?
Pattern #3. Suggesting that Russia was threatened by NATO
In your interviews, you are eager to bring up the alleged promise by [US Secretary of State] James Baker and President George H.W. Bush to Gorbachev that, if he agreed to allow a unified Germany to rejoin NATO, the U.S. would ensure that NATO would move ‘not one inch eastward.’ First, please note that the historicity of this promise is highly contested among scholars, although Russia has been active in promoting it. The premise is that NATO’s eastward expansion left Putin with no other choice but to attack.
But the reality is different. Eastern European states joined, and Ukraine and Georgia aspired to join NATO, in order to defend themselves from Russian imperialism. They were right in their aspirations, given that Russia did attack Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Moreover, current requests by Finland and Sweden to join NATO came in direct response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, consistent with NATO expansion being a consequence of Russian imperialism, and not vice versa.
In addition, we disagree with the notion that sovereign nations shouldn’t be making alliances based on the will of their people because of disputed verbal promises made by James Baker and George H.W. Bush to Gorbachev.
Pattern #4. Stating that the U.S. isn’t any better than Russia
While you admittedly call the Russian invasion of Ukraine a “war crime,” it appears to us that you cannot do so without naming in the same breath all of the past atrocities committed by the U.S. abroad (e.g., in Iraq or Afghanistan) and, ultimately, spending most of your time discussing the latter. As economists, we are not in a position to correct your historical metaphors and, needless to say, we condemn the unjustified killings of civilians by any power in the past.
However, not bringing Putin up on war crime charges at the International Criminal Court in the Hague just because some past leader did not receive similar treatment would be the wrong conclusion to draw from any historical analogy. In contrast, we argue that prosecuting Putin for the war crimes that are being deliberately committed in Ukraine would set an international precedent for the world leaders attempting to do the same in the future.
Pattern #5. Whitewashing Putin’s goals for invading Ukraine
In your interviews, you go to great lengths to rationalize Putin’s goals of “demilitarization” and “neutralization” of Ukraine. Please note that, in his TV address from February 24, 2022, marking the beginning of the war, the verbatim goal declared by Putin for this “military operation” is to “denazify” Ukraine. This concept builds on his long pseudo-historical article from July 2021, denying Ukraine’s existence and claiming that Ukrainians were not a nation.
As elaborated in the ‘denazification manual’ published by the Russian official press agency RIA Novosti, a “Nazi” is simply a human being who self-identifies as Ukrainian, the establishment of a Ukrainian state thirty years ago was the “Nazification of Ukraine,” and any attempt to build such a state has to be a “Nazi” act. According to this genocide handbook, denazification implies a military defeat, purging, and population-level “re-education”. ‘Demilitarization’ and ‘neutralization’ imply the same goal – without weapons Ukraine will not be able to defend itself, and Russia will reach its long-term goal of destroying Ukraine.
Pattern #6. Assuming that Putin is interested in a diplomatic solution
All of us very much hoped for a cease-fire and a negotiated settlement, which could have saved many human lives. Yet, we find it preposterous how you repeatedly assign the blame for not reaching this settlement to Ukraine (for not offering Putin some “escape hatch”) or the U.S. (for supposedly insisting on the military rather than diplomatic solution) instead of the actual aggressor, who has repeatedly and intentionally bombed civilians, maternity wards, hospitals, and humanitarian corridors during those very “negotiations”. Given the escalatory rhetoric (cited above) of the Russian state media, Russia’s goal is erasure and subjugation of Ukraine, not a “diplomatic solution.”
Pattern #7. Advocating that yielding to Russian demands is the way to avert the nuclear war
Since the Russian invasion, Ukraine lives in a constant nuclear threat, not just due to being a prime target for Russian nuclear missiles but also due to the Russian occupation of Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
But what are the alternatives to fighting for freedom? Unconditional surrender and then elimination of Ukrainians off the face of the Earth (see above)? Have you ever wondered why President Zelenskyy, with the overwhelming support of the Ukrainian people, is pleading with Western leaders to provide heavy weapons despite the potential threat of nuclear escalation? The answer to this question is not “Because of Uncle Sam”, but rather due to the fact that Russian war crimes in Bucha and many other Ukrainian cities and villages have shown that living under Russian occupation is a tangible “hell on earth” happening right now, requiring immediate action.
Arguably, any concessions to Russia will not reduce the probability of a nuclear war but lead to escalation. If Ukraine falls, Russia may attack other countries (Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Finland or Sweden) and can also use its nuclear blackmail to push the rest of Europe into submission. And Russia is not the only nuclear power in the world. Other countries, such as China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea are watching. Just imagine what will happen if they learn that nuclear powers can get whatever they want using nuclear blackmail.
Professor Chomsky, we hope you will consider the facts and re-evaluate your conclusions. If you truly value Ukrainian lives as you claim to, we would like to kindly ask you to refrain from adding further fuel to the Russian war machine by spreading views very much akin to Russian propaganda.
Should you wish to engage further on any of the above-mentioned points, we are always open to discussion.
Kind regards,
Bohdan Kukharskyy, City University of New York
Anastassia Fedyk, University of California, Berkeley
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
Ilona Sologoub, VoxUkraine NGO
Stevenson’s army, May 23
– Biden says US will defend Taiwan, aides say no change in policy.
– NYT explains IPEF. So does WSJ.
– US may use special forces to defend Kyiv embassy.
– Israel evicts Palestinians in advance of Biden visit.
– NYT reports on Ukraine peace ideas.
– Here’s the list of Americans sanctioned by Russia.
– WSJ reports on China’s subsidies to businesses.
– Politico has interesting report on how aides plan foreign travel by the president.
– History lessons: Politico argues the Scopes trial mirrors current fights over what can be taught in schools. And Jill Lepore has a good short history of the trial.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Russia’s aggression won’t help Kosovo
Colleagues I respect think I got it wrong. Earlier this week I doubted Serbian President Vucic was prepared to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti. So I thought I would consider the arguments.
What my critics argue
My critics think Vucic is not so hard over, in current circumstances. They argue that his patron, Vladimir Putin, is in trouble both in Ukraine and Russia. Moscow has even compared the Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk and Donestk to Kosovo. This implies that the Russians might accept Kosovo’s secession if the West accepts the declarations of independence of the Ukrainian provinces. Belgrade fears Russia might cut a deal at Serbia’s expense. So Vucic needs the West more than ever. He might even accept Kosovo’s sovereignty and independence in exchange for a vaguely defined Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. Pristina agreed to that in 2013, but current Prime Minister Kurti has ruled it out.
It doesn’t make sense
I admit the Belgrade tabloids are showing a lot of concern about the shakiness of Russia’s support for Serbia’s claim of sovereignty over Kosovo. But still, the argument doesn’t really make sense to me.
If Belgrade is concerned about the Russians maintaining their veto over Kosovo UN membership, they can readily look to China. Beijing has been providing a lot of financing and military hardware to Belgrade lately. The Chinese also oppose Kosovo independence, because of the implications for Taiwan. It wouldn’t make sense for Vucic to turn to the West, which will surely insist on recognition of Kosovo’s sovereignty and independence while China won’t.
Besides, for Belgrade the important precedent is Russia’s seizure of territory where ethnic Russians live. That could be used, if Moscow wins in Ukraine, as a precedent for Serbia’s seizure of northern Kosovo. Or at least formation of a “Serb Republic of Northern Kosovo” that declares independence and accepts Russian peacekeepers on the northerns side of the Ibar River.
Can the Americans intervene decisively?
My critics also argue this is a good moment for America to put forward a plan Vucic cannot refuse. Could the Americans intervene decisively with Serbia to force recognition of the Republic of Kosovo? I doubt it. So far, the Biden Administration has shown little inclination to do more than return to past, pre-Trump US policy, which was supportive of the EU-sponsored normalization dialogue.
The Americans have also turned favorable to the Belgrade-Tirana proposal for Open Balkans, which is still an ill-defined slogan for increasing intra-Balkans trade more than a clear plan to resolve outstanding issues. Balkan leaders have discussed trade issues ad infinitum in the German-sponsored Berlin process as well as in CEFTA (the Central European Free Trade Agreement). The EU and US are pressing Kosovo hard to join Open Balkans. But alas, Belgrade and Tirana have never sent a formal invitation to Pristina. They can’t agree on how to address it. That does not augur well.
Nor does American pre-occupation with Ukraine and its ramifications. Kosovo has supported Ukraine, but Serbia has not. Washington will fear that any move towards Kosovo independence will drive Serbia in the wrong direction. That is the advantage of Vucic’s “two stools” strategy. He can always sit on the other one.
First to applaud
I’ll be the first to give a standing ovation to whoever is able to get Serbia to recognize Kosovo within its present borders and in harmony with its current constitution. But I don’t think Ukraine is helping. To the contrary: Russia’s launch of an irredentist war of aggression bodes ill for stability in the Balkans.
Stevenson’s army, April 9 and 10
April 10:
Reading about the Russian law limiting what can be said about the conflict in Ukraine, I remembered that America’s record has blemishes, despite the first amendment. Read Geoffrey Stone’s Perilous Times. And look at the Sedition Law of 1918.
– In preparation for our discussion of the media in week 11, think about the NYTimes’ announcement by Executive Editor Dean Baquet this week limiting its reporters’ use of Twitter, discussed at CJR. In the memo, Baquet said that while Twitter can play a “helpful role,” particularly when it comes to “highlighting the concerns of underrepresented groups,” it has also had deleterious effects on the Times, its work, and its staff in four main ways, with journalists over-relying on Twitter echo chambers in their reporting, worrying too much about feedback from other users, damaging the paper’s reputation (and their own) with “off-the-cuff responses,” and suffering there from harassment and attacks.
– Also worth your time is Ezra Klein’s interview about Ukraine with Fiona Hill. [I’m linking the transcript; it’s from a podcast]
-WSJ reports on Israel’s 4-year air war across the Middle East.
April 9:
I’m concerned that many Americans are taking an overly narrow and naively optimistic view of the Ukraine war. Our media coverage comes mostly from the Ukraine side; we see the war as they do, brutal but with bravery. We’re understandably sympathetic to that side. But…remember that support for Ukraine is limited and perishable. Outside of Europe, governments are indifferent or even hostile [that is, pro-Russian]. Why? Because it’s in their interests.
Josh Rogin is mad at Israel. But already, disruptions in Ukrainian food supplies is already hurting people across the globe.
Even in Europe, Hungary’s pro-Putin Orban easily won reelection. And Marine Le Pen might become president of France. Remember that NATO requires unanimity for big decisions.
Even in America, nearly 1/3 of House Republicans opposed a mere sense of Congress resolution supporting NATO. And the current consensus is that Democrats will lose massively in the midterm elections.Trust in government is higher in Russia than US.
Can the current support for Ukraine continue in Germany, America, and elsewhere until the fall? Into next year?
Problems to be overcome: Shortage of 152 mm artillery. A new Russian general with Syria experience. Chinese expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
Meanwhile, take heart from this analysis of how Kyiv prevailed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, April 6
– Paul Pillar notes how hard a Ukraine peace deal because of disagreements over war aims on all sides. More on that from WaPo.
– Gen. Milley disagrees with Biden budget cut to nuclear cruise missile.
– 63 House Republican oppose resolution supporting NATO.
– DOD officials admit inflation estimate too low.
– Kori Schake wants 50% increase in defense spending.
– Incoming South Korean president wants return of US nukes.
– Japan has moved radar closer to China.
– WSJ says Czechs have sent tanks to Ukraine.
– With LePen surging in polls, GMF has survey of presidential candidates’ views on foreign policy.
– Andrew Exum explains Russian atrocities.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).