Category: Yuanyi Liu
Never let a crisis go to waste
“The region already faced significant economic fragility prior to the pandemic, but the coming recession will hurt the Middle East especially hard.” On May 1, the Wilson Center hosted a panel discussion on “The Middle East Workforce and COVID-19: Resetting the Regional Economic Formula.” The discussion featured six speakers:
Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al-Thani: Ambassador of the State of Qatar to the US
Theodore Kattouf: President of AMIDEAST and Former United States Ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates
Denise Lamaute: Economic Officer, Middle East Bureau, USAID
Andrew Baird: President and CEO, Education for Employment-Global
Alexander Farley: Research Associate
Merissa Khurma: Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives, moderated
Current context
In Ambassador Al-Thani’s keynote speech, he pointed out that unemployment, the lack of human development, and the absence of social justice have posed a threat to political, economic, and social instability in the Middle East. The outbreak of COVID-19 across the world has led to a greater challenge. The collapse of oil prices as well as the decline of tourism revenue, emigrant remittances, and economic demand are aggravating the region’s structural weaknesses. Limited opportunities for youth and their lack of prospects will create discontent and generate distrust to political leaders. Al-Thani believes that this is the main reason of the Arab Spring.
Baird thinks that COVID-19 is an enormous disrupter. The hospitality industry, including restaurants, hair salons, and manufacturing, are suffering from this crisis. There are, however, winners at this point, including home health care, public health workers, transportation, agriculture, and the information technology sector. Baird is concerned that this crisis may have a long-term impact on SMEs, making them more vulnerable. They will take a longer time to recover than larger businesses. Additionally, Baird emphasized that the crisis will widen the digital divide between men and women.
Education and workforce
Farley summarized key findings of An Analysis of Workforce Asymmetries in the Middle East and North Africa:
- The skills mismatch and deficit of needed skills in the labor market
- Private sector and education uncoordinated
- Education systems do not emphasize essential skills
- Technical vocational education and training (TVET) is neglected and suffers stigma
- Mindsets adhere to a hierarchy of public over the private sector
- SMEs face barriers to expansion, economic growth is limited
- Entrepreneurship and new business creation is low
- Women ahead in education but behind in workforce participation
Kattouf said that during the Ottoman period, there was no education except for certain elites who were educated by the British and French to serve colonists’ needs. In the Gulf, most of the current countries were protectorates without education. It was not until Nasser and Arab socialism that an aspiration for universal education and literacy started.
While the number of educational institutions is now overwhelming, the quality of higher education is decreasing as more students are admitted to public universities and good professors prefer to teach in the Gulf for higher salaries. Kattouf added that when the youth graduate from tertiary education, they are equipped with fewer skills than expected and there are fewer jobs than needed.
Remedies
Al-Thani believes that Middle Eastern states need to take collective action to make long-term, youth-centered development agendas in order to address the challenge of workforce asymmetries, including protecting youth rights and allowing them to participate in public life.
Farley listed various recommendations from An Analysis of Workforce Asymmetries in the Middle East and North Africa:
- Realigning education systems to labor market needs
- Rethinking assessment and tracking student progress
- Upgrading the TVET pathway
- Strengthening entrepreneurship and SMEs
- Increasing female labor force participation through multiple interventions
Denise suggests that governments, the private sector, and education systems should pursue a firm understanding of the region’s demographics, the evolving demands for skills, and the connections between providing goods and providing services. Since the pandemic forces people to embrace digital tools, it may push a “fourth Industrial Revolution.” This revolution can lead to faster technology adoption, increased productivity and performance, emergence of new markets and new consumers, the relocation of value chains, and job loses as well as job gains. Since the MENA region possesses a young workforce, they will be ready to adopt the “fourth Industrial Revolution” to create more opportunities and changes.
Baird resonated Denise’s point to never let a good crisis go to waste. He suggests that the financial system can bring the private sector closer to education. As governments exert more control over the private sector, they can take advantage of it to propose women friendly policies, including women friendly transportation, anti-harassment policy, and day care.
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Peace Picks| May 4- May 9
- CSIS Debate Series: Do Human Rights Protections Advance Counter-terrorism Objectives | May 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
Does democracy foster economic growth? Do human rights protections advance counterterrorism objectives? Does great power competition hurt or empower the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa? Since the 1990s, there generally has been consensus about U.S. priorities and policies toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
Speakers:
Rashid Abdi: Former Project Director, Horn of Africa, International Crisis Group
Dr. Naunihal Singh: Assistant Professor of National Security, US Naval War College
Colonel (ret.) Chris Wyatt: Director of African Studies, US Army War College
Karen Allen: Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Security Studies (ISS); Former Foreign Correspondent, BBC News
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
- Webinar-Disinformation pandemic: Russian and Chinese information operations in the COVID-19 era| May 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | AEI | Register Here
Was the COVID-19 virus produced in the US? Was it created by the US Army? So Moscow and Beijing would have you believe.
Russia and China aggressively manipulate perceptions to achieve their own aims. Their increasingly aggressive information campaigns are converging in method and narrative. What can the US and its allies — and the average citizen — do to inoculate against these disinformation viruses?
Speakers:
Frederick W. Kagan: Resident Scholar; Director, Critical Threats Project
Dan Blumenthal: Director, Asian Studies; Resident Fellow
Zack Cooper: Research Fellow
- COVID-19, Oil Prices, and Prospects for Iran-GCC Relations | May 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The concurrent crises of COVID-19 and tumbling oil prices are deeply felt across the Gulf region. The U.S.-led sanctions, already a huge burden on Iran’s economy, massively limit Tehran’s foreign trade options and export revenue as the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates the country’s economic troubles. On the other hand, the energy-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are facing a steep decline in oil and gas export revenues for the foreseeable future. These economic shocks coincide with a sharp and a financially expensive competition for influence across the Middle East.
How might the present deteriorating economic realities impact the geopolitical calculations of Iran, the GCC states, and U.S. interests in the Gulf region? Will the economic downturn shape the willingness of the GCC states to stand with the Trump administration in confronting Tehran leading up to the US elections in November? Is there any opportunity for Iran and the GCC states to consider a reset in relations that have been contentious since 1979. MEI is pleased to host a panel to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Mohammed Baharoon: Director general, B’huth
Dina Esfandiary: Fellow, The Century Foundation
Bilal Saab: Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security program, MEI
Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
- Analyzing the Impact of the “Maximum Pressure” Campaign on Iran | May 6, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
The Islamic Republic of Iran is in the midst of a severe political and economic crisis brought on by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign and worsened by the coronavirus outbreak. The regime has called for Washington to lift U.S. sanctions on humanitarian grounds, and significant voices, including from previous administrations, have called for the easing of sanctions on the basis of compassion.
However, the crisis presents the United States with opportunities to increase the pressure not only on the regime, but also on its proxies—Hezbollah first among them. What is the range of policy options toward Iran and Hezbollah that Washington faces? What is the goal of maximum pressure as currently implemented? Should the Trump administration stay the course or consider refining the policy?
Speakers:
David Asher: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Michael Doran: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Scott Modell: Managing Director, Rapidan Energy Group and former Senior Iran Operations Officer, Central Intelligence Agency
Mohsen Sazegara: President, Research Institute on Contemporary Iran
- Safeguarding Asia’s Most Vulnerable During COVID-19 | May 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
COVID-19 has taken the world by a storm, but none are more deeply affected than the world’s most vulnerable. Refugees and the internally displaced, individuals living under authoritarian regimes, and others living in countries with limited healthcare resources are facing, in some cases, life or death situations. While many countries battling their own domestic fight with COVID-19 are tempted to turn inwards, the U.S. as a global leader in the promotion of freedom has a responsibility to galvanize attention and partnership to ensure that the world’s most needy are receiving the assistance they need during the pandemic. Join us to learn about the unique challenges faced by Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, the impoverished in North Korea, and the marginalized in China.
Speakers:
Daniel Sullivan: Senior Advocate for Human Rights, Refugees International
Kristina Olney: Director of Government Relations, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
Jeongmin Kim: Seoul Correspondent, NK News
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The Arab world is vulnerable
The Arab world is facing a global coronavirus recession and the associated oil demand shock. On April 22, the Arab Center Washington DC hosted a panel discussion on “The Oil Market and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the Arab World.” The discussion featured three speakers:
Garbis Iradian: Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, Institute of International Finance
Bessma Momani: Interim Assistant Vice-President of International Relations and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC, moderated
The oil market and Arab states
Iradian stated that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement to cut crude oil production by 9.7 million barrels, but this agreement will not be enacted until May. West Texas Intermediate has crashed into negative territory. More than sufficient oil supply and limited storage capacity is causing oil companies to give out oil for free. Iradian expected oil prices for the second quarter of this year to bottom around $30. The prices for the second half of this year will depend on recovery of global economy, especially from the COVID-19 pandemic. But prices will remain low in the long-term.
Iradian mentioned that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait could cope with low oil prices for at least 2-3 years because their ratio of public debt to GDP is modest. These countries have large financial buffers, including official reserves and sovereign wealth funds that can finance their current deficits.
Algeria, Oman, Bahrain, and Iraq, however, are encountering greater risks. Oman’s and Bahrain’s ratio of public debt to their GDP is high. Neither has sufficient official reserves and sovereign wealth funds, so they are cutting spending and diversifying their economies. Low oil prices will create more incentives for some oil exporters to reform. Both Algeria and Iraq have provided stimulus packages to lend to SMEs at concessional terms.
Oil importers, such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Sudan could benefit a little from low oil prices. The economic contraction, however, will have a negative impact on them due to the decrease in tourism, remittances from the GCC, and investment.
A grim outlook
Momani is pessimistic about the current global liquidity crisis. The Middle East depends on multilateral organizations and official development assistance from the West. The West, however, doesn’t have the incentive to give financial resources to the Middle East. Although the Arab states have reserves, they will slowly dry up because the global economy will not recover in the short-term.
Momani believes that this is a semi-permanent situation that will induce restructuring in every sector. The decline in oil prices is problematic to many Arab states as they are dependent on oil exports. In Iraq, the cost production of crude oil is $5/barrel, and in Saudi Arabia the cost production is $10-15/ barrel. If low oil prices persist, it will lead to revenue shortfalls. Some Gulf states intend to diversify their economies, but tourism, airlines, and big sports events are all at a standstill.
Momani listed several more economic challenges that the Gulf faces:
- Most states without enormous reserves have low tax bases.
- The lack of social safety net means public health services are inequitably distributed between the rich and the masses.
- Guest workers in the Gulf face both unemployment and discrimination.
- The intergenerational family structure prevents Middle Eastern families from combating COVID-19 effectively.
- Universities in the Gulf, most of which are subsidized by Gulf states, are facing difficulties.
- The UAE, which depends on port infrastructure, will come to a standstill as the movement of goods and services between China and the Middle East halts.
- Oil exporters depend on US dollars but cannot print them, they are hostage to the US Federal Reserve and the Trump administration.
- The crisis could induce the collapse of small entrepreneurial sectors.
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CCP’s challenges in COVID-19
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to expand its influence around the world. On April 17, Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on “Meeting the Challenge of the Chinese Communist Party During and After COVID-19.” The discussion featured four speakers:
Eric Brown: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Patrick Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair and Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Lewis Libby: Senior Vice President, Hudson Institute, moderated
Current Context
Lee said that the CCP is promoting its decisive and effective response in contrast to America’s chaotic efforts. The masks, ventilators, and doctors that China has sent around the world are meant to show that China is saving the world, while democracy in the US is floundering. He believes that China will return to a powerful position because of its strong national capabilities.
One of the challenges that China is encountering, however, is the lockdown in neighboring states, which prevents them from absorbing China’s excess supplies. In the long term, China needs continued access to external markets, capital, and innovation. Lee points out that Europe is considering toughening its industrial polices against China.
Brown indicated that the US thought cooperation with China throughout the 1990s would let the CCP relinquish some control. The CCP, however, was not prepared for further liberalization. After the 2008 financial crisis, the party re-asserted more control over economic, political, and ideological discussions. President Xi attempted to turn China against the US, causing deterioration in US-China relations and leading to limited market access.
Adding that the pandemic could trigger a change in CCP tactics because the criticism of the one-party system has deepened, Brown noted that people have been thinking about a fundamental change in the CCP regime. The regime, hence, could redouble its police state buildup and become more aggressive.
Is China winning?
Cronin believes that the pandemic crisis should neither lead us to count America out, nor assume China’s peaceful rise, for three reasons:
- US retrenchment from the Pacific is not irreparable. It will, however, accelerate the disentanglement of US supply chains and high-tech innovation sources. Meanwhile, China is not filling the gap due to its internal troubles and its poor track record of trust and transparency.
- The CCP is adaptable and agile, characteristics the US has underestimated. The Covid-19 crisis, nevertheless, could be a Chernobyl moment for Xi’s leadership.
- The US and its allies are in a competition with China. Their strategies can include both preventing the rise of the hegemon and finding cooperation based on reciprocity in contrast to China’s narratives.
What can the US do?
Lee and Brown both agreed that the US can either restrict China’s access to the international market or block its transactions in US dollars. The US also needs to coordinate with Europe. Additionally, American universities should restrict Chinese students’ participation in joint projects with strategic implications. Brown added that the pandemic forces US political leaders to face the choice between national security and international financial markets. The best arrangement should cover both national security concerns and economic concerns.
Here’s the video for this panel discussion:
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Peace Picks| April 18- April 25
Public Health Surveillance, Al bias, and Risks to Privacy in the Fight against COVID-19 | April 21, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
To help fight COVID-19, U.S. tech companies have recently announced efforts to leverage public health surveillance, including tracking the spread of the coronavirus using Bluetooth-enabled devices. China, South Korea, and Israel are already engaged in some form of citizen tracking to mitigate and reduce their infection rates. Artificial intelligence (AI) and other digital tools have the capability to capture biometrics, location data, and other indicators of infection. Given these existing and potential uses of AI, what are the privacy implications for the collection of such health data? Which groups are at risk of unintended and potentially discriminatory outcomes? How transparent will these systems be?
Speakers:
Alex Engler: Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Michelle Richardson: Director, Privacy and Data Project, Center for Democracy and Technology
Nicol Turner Lee (Moderator): Fellow, Governance Studies, Center for Technology Innovation
LGBTQ+ Movements in the Middle East: Navigating Political Unrest and Global Pandemic | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Acceptance of the LGBTQ+ community is low
across the Middle East, and LGBTQ+ individuals face a number of unique
challenges due to their identity. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to
host a virtual panel which will seek to explore the ways in which these
communities have organized in the Middle East in order to raise visibility and
advocate for greater rights, and how these efforts are under attack across the
region. Panelists will discuss the impacts that governments, laws, and society
have on the lives of LGBTQ+ people, and the ways in which grassroots
organizations and initiatives strive to support this community in the face of
backlash and the challenges of navigating the COVID-19 pandemic.
What are the major challenges LGBTQ+ people face in the
Middle East? In what ways have LGBTQ+ rights been integrated into broader
social and political movements in countries like Lebanon and Iraq? How
has COVID-19 impacted important advocacy work, and how are activists and
organizations adapting to continue to protect these communities? Is there any
hope for future protection of LGBTQ+ people in the wake of regional and global
crises?
Speakers:
Amir Ashour: Founder and executive director, IraQueer
Roula Seghaier: Executive Member, Masaha: Accessible Feminist Knowledge
Rasha Younes: Researcher, LGBT rights program, Human Rights Watch
Antoun Issa (Moderator): Non-resident scholar, MEI
The Oil Market and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the Arab World | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 and the plunging oil prices on the economic outlook in the Arab world, including how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting economies in the region in the short and long-term, the implications of the recent price wars on Gulf economies, and the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting.
Speakers:
Garbis Iradian: Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, Institution of International Finance
Bessma Momani: Interim Assistant Vice-President of International Relations and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
The Path to Intra-Afghan Talks | April 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Since the signing of the landmark U.S.-Taliban agreement on February 29, efforts to reach the next phase in the Afghanistan peace process have faced numerous obstacles, both old and new. Comprehensive Intra-Afghan negotiations, originally planned to begin within 10 days of the U.S.-Taliban agreement, have yet to occur—delayed by disagreements over the presidential election results, prisoner releases, and now the spread of coronavirus in Afghanistan and the region. One hopeful sign, however, was the announcement of a politically and ethnically inclusive negotiation team to represent the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in talks with the Taliban.
The 21-member delegation will be led by former Minister Masoom Stanekzai and includes five women. Now that a team has been formed, negotiators will need to plan their strategy for the intra-Afghan talks and develop negotiating positions on key substantive issues—including political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and the future of human rights protections and democracy in Afghanistan.
Speakers:
Masoom Stanekzai: Head of the Afghan Government Negotiation Team; former Chief of the National Directorate of Security
Habiba Sarabi: Afghan Government Negotiation Team Member; Deputy Chair, Afghanistan High Peace Council
Alexander Thier: Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Founder of Triple Helix Consulting
Ambassador Richard Olson (Moderator): Senior Advisor, USIP; former US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Andrew Wilder (Welcoming remarks): Vice President, Asia Center, USIP
COVID-19: Implications for peace and security in the Middle East | April 22, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
The Brookings Doha Center is pleased to invite you to a webinar discussion on the implications of Covid-19 for regional peace and security. What are the short and long-term implications of the pandemic for regional security? How can regional and international powers mitigate the fallout from the pandemic? Will the crisis expand and intensify existing conflicts or could it become a rallying call for conflict resolution? How can vulnerable communities be protected? These questions, and others, will be addressed by a distinguished panel of experts.
Speakers:
Tanya Gilly-Khailany: Director, SEED
Frederic Wehrey: Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Galip Dalay: Nonresident Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Ranj Alaaldin (Moderator): Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Pakistan’s Coronavirus Crisis: Impact and Solutions | April 23, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In addition to the severe human cost, the COVID-19 crisis has forced Pakistan’s already suffering economy to a grinding halt. Social distancing policies, necessary to stop the spread of the virus, have sent the global economy reeling, paralyzed the informal economy, and left Pakistan’s most vulnerable without income and sustenance. Meanwhile, despite a $7.5 billion relief package, both central and provincial governments have struggled to respond as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise daily. As the situation stands, much more will be needed for Pakistan to effectively address the crisis.
Speakers:
Cyril Almeida: Visiting Senior Expert, USIP
Khurram Hussain: Business Editor, Dawn Newspaper
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Deputy Director, South Asia, Stimson Center
Uzair Younus: Nonresident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Tamanna Salikuddin (Moderator): Director, South Asia, USIP
Economic Shocks of COVID-19: What Next for the Caspian Basin and South Caucasus? | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The economic toll of COVID-19 around the world has been significant and the impact of this crisis will reverberate for the next few years. Iran is among the hardest hit economies but the fallout is also already felt among Iran’s immediate neighboring states, including the countries of South Caucasus and the Caspian Basin. With US sanctions severely limiting its international trade, Tehran has in recent years banked on trade with immediate neighbors as a stopgap remedy to its economic needs. This policy of prioritizing trade and other economic ties with immediate neighbors is now under seven more pressure due to COVID-19. While Iran is expected to experience a sharp economic contraction in 2020, the economic growth forecasts have also been cut in neighboring Caucasus states, requiring swift and decisive action from leaders and international partners.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) will bring together a panel of experts to explore the economic impacts of COVID-19 on Iran, the South Caucasus and the question of regional economic cooperation and integration. Besides looking at what has driven Iran’s neighborhood policy in recent years, and how it is in danger of crumbling due to COVID-19 restrictions, the panel will focus on the specific case of the energy sector where regional integration was moving ahead albeit slowly. Meanwhile, the role played by third-parties – including Russia and the US – will also be tackled by the panelists as they reflect on Iran-South Caucasus economic connections.
Speakers:
Aleksi Aleksishvili: Chairman and CEO, Policy and Management Consulting Group
Rauf Mammadov: Resident scholar on energy policy, MEI
Suzanne Maloney: Interim vice president and director, Foreign Policy program, Brookings Institution
The Middle East on Lockdown: The Impact of COVID-19 on Regional Economies | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Wilson Center | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has driven most of the world to shut borders, close businesses, and impose lockdowns on citizen movement to mitigate the spread of the novel virus. In the Middle East and North Africa, many countries shuttered businesses and banned public gatherings accompanied by strict curfews enforced by police or national militaries. Oil and Gas producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE injected billions into their economies to ease the economic fallout. However, resource-scarce countries already suffering from economic fragility also took measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises which make up the backbone of their private sectors. With the world heading into a deep recession, the economic future of the region is indeed dire. This will likely reignite political tensions that are temporarily subdued by the lockdown and will drive a renew wave of unrest across the region.
Speakers:
David Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Middle East Specialist and Former Washington Post Correspondent
Ibrahim Saif: CEO of Jordan Strategy Forum
Bessma Momani: Assistant Vice President of International Relations at University of Waterloo
Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives
A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East? | April 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Join THO on Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 11AM EST for a webinar on “A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East?“.
Speakers:
William F. Wechsler: Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Benjamin H. Friedman: Senior Fellow and Defense Scholar, Defense Priorities Lecturer, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amb. Selcuk Unal: Director General for Syria, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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Peace Picks| April 11- April 18
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
Unpacking the Covid-19 Crisis in Africa | April 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
The confirmed cases and fatalities from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) continue to rise in sub-Saharan Africa, creating dire economic and political challenges. As governments in the region scramble to implement containment strategies, manage the economic fallout, and work through a busy election calendar, how can they minimize long-term negative impacts? The CSIS Africa Program invites you to virtually attend the first event in a series of partnerships with premier research institutions across Africa. Experts from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) and the University of Pretoria join CSIS Africa Program Director, Judd Devermont to discuss the political, economic, and health implications of the coronavirus pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Additional information on speakers will be added closer to the event date.
Speakers:
Dr. Jakkie Cilliers: Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Head of the African Futures and Innovations, Institute for Security Studies
Marius Oosthuizen: Faculty at the Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria
Wafaa El-Sadr: University Professor and Dr. Mathilde Krim-amfAR Chair of Global Health, Columbia University
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
Israeli Democracy at a Crossroads | April 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
After a record-breaking three elections in the span of just one year and several weeks of political maneuvering and intrigue, including a constitutional crisis prompted by an unprecedented suspension of the Knesset, the announcement of a new unity deal between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and opposition figure Benny Gantz appears to have put an end to Israel’s longstanding political stalemate. In doing so however it has also gutted Gantz’s opposition Blue and White faction and alienated the Arab-dominated Joint List while ensuring Netanyahu’s premiership until at least September 2021. Any hope of a return to something resembling normalcy meanwhile remains elusive as Israelis continue to grapple with a ballooning public health crisis sparked by the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has brought social, economic, and political life in Israel to a virtual standstill.
Given these varying challenges, what are the prospects for the new “emergency” government in Israel? What will this new arrangement mean for the political opposition in general and for the Joint List in particular? Moreover, what do these developments mean for the future of Israeli democracy and for Israel’s broader role in the Middle East?
Speakers:
Ari Heistein: Researcher and Chief of Staff to the Director, INSS
Dahlia Scheindlin: Co-founder and columnist, +972 Magazine
The Honorable Aida Touma-Sliman: Member, Knesset (Joint List)
Khaled Elgindy (Moderator): Senior fellow and director of the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Oil Market Mayhem Redux: The market and geopolitical implications of the OPEC+ and G20 negotiations | April 13, 2020 | 1:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
An unprecedented crisis in the oil market is looming. With demand in free-fall, a price war bringing oil prices to multi-decade lows, and a flood of oil supplies overwhelming available storage, a consensus to take action is emerging – but the parties have struggled to agree about what type of action and by whom. As OPEC concludes an extraordinary meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members and Saudi Arabia hosts an emergency meeting of the G20, the intersection of energy markets and geopolitics is shaping how the global community responds to the oil market crisis (and whether it is enough). What emerges from these four days will have a transformative effect on the market long after the coronavirus passes.
As markets digest these moves on Monday, please join the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center for an expert briefing on the details of the OPEC meeting and G20 summit and what those decisions mean for the market, geopolitics, and the future of the oil industry.
Speakers:
Anders Aslund: Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Helima Croft: Managing Director and Global Head of Commodity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
Kristen Fontenrose: Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
David Goldwyn: Chair, Energy Advisory Group, Atlantic Council
Randolph Bell (Moderator): Director, Global Energy Center and Richard Morningstar Chair for Global Energy Security, Atlantic Council
Egypt’s Economy, Citizens, and the Pandemic | April 14, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the Middle East’s most populous country, Egypt’s domestic issues will invariably have significant regional ramifications as the country weathers the COVID-19 pandemic. Both domestic and international trade are likely to suffer, and international supply chains are already being disrupted. The international reverberations will hit some of Egypt’s main revenue streams hard, particularly trade via the Suez Canal, remittances from Egyptians working abroad, and the tourism sector.
While the economy is taking major hits at the macro level, things are likely to be as bad at the micro-level. The government appears to be trying hard to get a handle on both the spread of the virus through mitigation efforts such as early school closures, curfews, and other measures. It has also implemented a raft of economic relief measures in order to reduce pressure both on the market and on individuals, all while pressing as many people to work remotely as possible. However, millions cannot afford to work remotely; over 11 million people work in Egypt’s informal economy, without pensions or contracts and limited access to the country’s overburdened health system.
Given these vast and converging challenges, what does Egypt’s economic future hold?
Speakers:
Angus Blair: CIB Professor of Practice, School of Business, American University in Cairo
Laila Iskandar: Former Minister for Urban Renewal and Informal Settlements, Egypt
Yasser El-Naggar: CEO, EN Investment
Mirette F. Mabrouk (Moderator): Director of Egypt Program, MEI
The GCC’s double dilemma: Tackling COVID-19 and falling oil prices| April 14, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are confronting a sharp downturn in economic activity due to the coronavirus outbreak, as the pandemic wreaks havoc across the global economy. However, unlike in other regions of the world, where the economic downturn is expected to be transient, the corresponding sharp fall in global oil prices presents a longer-term challenge to GCC member states.
GCC governments have announced economic stimulus packages totaling $97 billion to help the private sector absorb the shock of the crisis. They now must ensure that this stimulus is applied effectively to meeting the short-term demands of the coronavirus crisis, while tempering the long-term fallout of the drop in oil prices. GCC countries must also redouble their efforts to diversify their economies and set aside petty political differences and work together to mitigate the societal impact of the dual challenges.
The Brookings Doha Center is pleased to invite you to a webinar discussion on the economic challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic poses for the GCC. The discussion will address the following questions: What are the short- and long-term economic implications of the pandemic for GCC economies? How should GCC governments apply their stimulus packages to counter the adverse impacts of the pandemic and the drop in oil prices? What other policy priorities should GCC governments pursue to ameliorate the societal impact of the COVID-19 crisis?
Speakers:
Samantha Gross: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative
Hatim Al Shanfari: Professor of Economics and Finance, Sultan Qaboos University
Nasser Saidi: Founder and President, Nasser Saidi & Associates, Former Lebanese Minister of Economy
Nader Kabbani (Moderator): Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center; Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development
Navigating Iraq’s Political and Economic Turbulence amid Pandemic | April 15, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
A perfect storm has hit Iraq: the Covid-19 virus is spreading throughout the country and overwhelming its healthcare system, a precipitous decline in oil prices is threatening the livelihoods of millions of Iraqis, increasing U.S.-Iran tensions are playing out on Iraqi territory, and a political crisis has stalled the process of government formation for months. On top of all that, millions of Iraqis remain displaced, ISIS still constitutes a major security threat, and pro-Iran militias are increasingly fragmenting, as different groups outbid each other over their loyalty to Tehran and their ability to target the U.S. presence in Iraq. On April 9, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi was named as prime minister designate, the third person to be appointed to the job since Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation last November. He now has 30 days to form a government, a task his two predecessors failed to complete, although he appears to have more support across the Iraqi political spectrum and better chances at success than they did. Faced with these myriad socioeconomic, political, and security challenges, can Iraq maintain its tenuous balance? Will Mr. Al Kadhimi succeed in forming a government? What are the potential short- and medium-term economic scenarios for Iraq in light of the oil price war and decreasing global demand? What is the future of the U.S.-Iraq strategic relationship?
Speakers:
Farhad Alaaldin: Chairman, Iraq Advisory Council (IAC)
Hafsa Halawa: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Yesar Al-Maleki: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Mohammad Radhi Al-Shummary: Professor, Al-Nahrain University
Randa Slim (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
On the Front Lines: How Public Health Systems are Confronting the Covid 19 Crisis in the Middle East | April 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
COVID-19 has the potential to push public healthcare systems in the Middle East past their current capabilities.The number of coronavirus cases in the Middle East has risen to nearly 60,000, double the amount only a week ago. How will this current pandemic impact the region’s health care systems and preparedness for future crises? The Middle East Institute (MEI) will bring together a panel of experts to look beyond the immediate impact of COVID-19 on public healthcare systems in the Middle East. This group of experts will discuss the long term effects on the region’s public health systems and if this will cause them to become more resilient in the face of future threats.
What will this current crisis mean for the future of the region’s health care systems? What steps should public health services be taking now to ensure they will be better prepared for the next pandemic? What is the role of international organizations like the World Health Organization to help regional public health services build resilience into their systems?
Speakers:
Amir Afkhami: Associate professor, George Washington University
Amira Roses: Professor of global health and epidemiology, George Mason University
Ross Harrison (Moderator): Senior fellow, MEI
COVID-19 and Conflicts in the Arab World: A Closer Look at Libya, Syria, and Yemen during the Coronavirus Pandemic| April 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in areas of conflict and war-affected and refugee populations in the Arab world, specifically focusing on Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
Speakers:
Noha Aboueldahab: Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Yara M. Asi: Lecturer of Health Management and Informatics, University of Central Florida
Joost Hiltermann: Program Director, Middle East and North Africa, International Crisis Group
Afrah Nasser: Yemen Researcher, Human Rights Watch
Tamara Kharroub (Moderator): Assistant Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
The Middle East in an Era of Great Power Competition: A Conversation with Barry Posen and Stephen Walt | April 16, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Of all the internal obstacles and external challenges the United States is likely to face in its pursuit of its new foreign policy priority of great power competition, the Middle East might prove to be the biggest. If the region continues to command U.S. attention and resources, Washington will struggle in its efforts to effectively pivot and counter Chinese and Russian ambitions in Asia and Europe, respectively.
How does or should the Middle East fit in America’s new grand strategy? Does the great power competition necessitate an entirely new U.S. approach toward the Middle East? Which U.S. approach best serves Washington’s new global plans?
To answer these questions and many others, the Middle East Institute (MEI) is honored to host a conversation with Professor Barry Posen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Professor Stephen Walt from Harvard University.
Speakers:
Barry Posen: Ford international professor of political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stephen M. Walt: Professor of international affairs, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government
Bilal Saab (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, defense and security program, MEI
Displacement During COVID-19: an Urgent Humanitarian Imperative | April 17, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As COVID-19 continues to devastate global economies and health systems with no end in sight, refugees and IDPs are among the world’s most vulnerable communities. Already facing tremendous challenges including loss of livelihoods, lack of citizenship, psychological trauma, and discrimination, displaced people in the Middle East must now contend with the pandemic and its devastation on the already-strained healthcare systems and economies of their host countries. Refugees are particularly susceptible to illnesses like COVID due to overcrowding in refugee camps, lack of proper sanitation, food, and water resources, and unprotected movement across borders. Meanwhile, the region’s conflicts, outbreaks of violence, and occupation continue, providing little relief in the most fragile environments.
How are refugees in the Middle East withstanding the virus in countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan? How does the impact of the virus expose existing fragilities in and create new challenges for the region’s healthcare services, particularly for refugee camps, which suffer from overcrowding and lack of proper sanitation? What are the new imperatives for governments and international organizations to provide assistance where it is needed most?
Speakers:
Kieren Barnes: Syrian Country Director, Mercy Corps
Aya Majzoub: Lebanon and Bahrain researcher, Human Rights Watch
Dr. Zaher Sahloul: President and founder, MedGlobal
Randa Slim (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues program, MEI
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