Category: Zakaria Imessaoudene

Peace Picks | August 5 – 9

How to Talk About People Disengaging from Violent Extremism – The Power of Strategic Language | August 06, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | U.S. Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here

Around the world, many countries face a challenging security question: what to do with citizens who have joined violent extremist groups. While many face criminal trial, thousands who traveled to live with ISIS will have to reintegrate into their communities, meaning rehabilitation must play a central role in any realistic security approach. Based on experience and research, this rehabilitation is possible through a two-way “re-humanization” effort. Yet we currently lack the language in public discourse to talk about those disengaging from violent extremism without reinforcing stigmas that hinder reconciliation.

It is critical for returning persons and community members to again see and treat each other as people with whom they share a basic human nature. Prosocial engagement between returning persons and community members and institutions is key to that effort. However, public discourse insists on using language steeped in fear and anger: the returning persons are “terrorists,” “jihadists,” “ISIS brides,” or “fighters.” The stigma this language produces is a self-fulfilling prophecy—it impedes empathy, erects barriers to prosocial engagement, and perpetuates the isolation and dehumanization that often fuels violent radicalization in the first place.

Speakers:

  • Dr. Arie Kruglanski, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland
  • Shannon Foley Martinez, Consultant for the prevention and disruption of targeted identity violence
  • Dr. Hollie Nyseth-Brehm, Associate Professor of Sociology, The Ohio State University 
  • Dr. Paul Thibodeau, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Oberlin College and Conservatory

Moderator:

  • Leanne Erdberg, Director, Countering Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peac

Contemporary India: Foreign Policy, Development Strategy, and Regional Priorities for Modi 2.0 | August 06, 2019 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | The Heritage Foundation | Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s foreign policy and engagement with the world has acquired new energy and dynamism. Following India’s historic elections this spring, Modi’s second term will continue to focus on creating an enabling environment for India’s growth and development, while pursuing security and growth for all in India’s neighborhood and beyond. To discuss the Modi government’s foreign policy imperatives, and particularly India’s priorities in its regional engagements, India’s Ambassador to the U.S., His Excellency Harsh Vardhan Shringla will join Heritage Foundation South Asia scholar Jeff M. Smith for a wide-ranging conversation.

Speakers:

  • H.E. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, Ambassador of India to the United States
  • Jeff M. Smith, Research Fellow, South Asia, Heritage Foundation Asian Studies Center

A View from Iraq: A Conversation with Iraqi MP Sarkawt Shamsulddin | August 06, 2019 | 12:00 PM | The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

With a new Kurdistan Regional Government in place, the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative invites you to join us for a conversation with Iraqi Council of Representatives Member Sarkawt Shamsulddin to hear a view from Iraq. In 2018, Shamsulddin became the youngest member of the Iraqi parliament, securing the top position of the New Generation Movement in Sulaymaniyah Province. He is now one of the leaders of The Future parliamentary bloc and a member of the Iraqi-American Friendship Committee.

The discussion topics will include how Iraq views the tensions between the United States and Iran, how the new Kurdistan Regional Government cabinet is re-setting relations with Baghdad, and what can be done to promote reforms, counter corruption, and build bridges between civil society organizations in Baghdad in Erbil.

Speakers:

  • Mr. Sarkawt Shamsulddin, Member, Council of Representative of Iraq

Moderator:

  • Dr. Abbas Kadhim, Senior Fellow and Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council

The Japanese-South Korean Trade Dispute: Ramifications and the Path Forward | August 07, 2019 | 1:30 PM – 4:30 PM | The Heritage Foundation | Allsion Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here

Japan and South Korea have recently imposed rulings that impact each other’s financial interests and risk triggering a strategic trade war. During previous spikes in tensions, bilateral economic and security sectors were not involved and instead served as moderating influences. That changed for the worse last year. Strained bilateral economic relations undermine U.S. allied diplomatic and security coordination to deal with the North Korean threat. What role should Washington play in resolving disputes between two critically important Asian allies?

Speakers:

Panel I – Competing Views and Economic Considerations (1:30 – 3:00 p.m.)

  • Scott Snyder, Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations
  • Yuki Tatsumi, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the Japan Program, The Stimson Center
  • Riley Walters, Policy Analyst for Asia Economy and Technology, The Heritage Foundation

Panel II – Implications for Economics, Security, and U.S. Strategic Objectives (3:00 – 4:30 p.m.)

  • Matthew Goodman, Senior Vice President, Senior Adviser for Asian Economics, and the Simon Chair in Political Economy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • James Schoff, Senior Fellow, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair, The Hudson Institute

Hosted by:

  • Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia, The Heritage Foundation

Building Bridges? Development and Infrastructure in U.S.-China Relations | August 08, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 2nd Floor | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Amid escalating U.S.-China tensions, Washington and Beijing are focused on managing their differences on bilateral trade. At the same time, both countries have a major stake in the functioning of the global economic order—the institutions, rules, and norms that shape international economic affairs. Even as they address bilateral issues, it is also important for the two sides to confront strains in the global order.

During this event, U.S. and Chinese experts will discuss an important set of issues in the global economic order: infrastructure and development finance. They will explore where the two sides may be able to cooperate and where they need to manage their differences. The event will roll out a collection of essays written in parallel by U.S. and Chinese scholars on trade, finance, technology, and other key issues in the global economic order. This essay series is the culmination of a multi-year effort to promote U.S.-China dialogue funded by Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Speakers:

  • Nancy Lee, Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development
  • Peter Raymond, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Reconnecting Asia Project and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS; Former Advisory Leader, Capital Projects and Infrastructure, PwC
  • Stephanie Segal, Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS 
  • Ye Yu, Associate Research Fellow & Assistant Director, Institute for World Economy Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS)

Moderator:

  • Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS

Confrontation in the Gulf: Unpacking Recent Escalations and the Prospects of US-Iran Talks | August 08, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | National Press Club, Holeman Lounge, 529 14th St., NW Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here

Tensions in the Persian Gulf threaten to escalate as regional and international actors look to improve their strategic standing at the expense of their adversaries. The last few weeks witnessed a number of attacks on oil tankers and platforms, seizures of ships operating in the Gulf and traversing the Strait of Hormuz, and the mutual downing of American and Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles. Left unaddressed, these actions ratchet up tensions and could quickly lead to a conflagration that would devastate all states in the region and disrupt the free flow of hydrocarbon supplies to the international economy. Over the last few months, many efforts have been made to find a compromise that could help address the sources of tension and spare the strategic area the outcomes of a confrontation, including calls and statements by regional and international actors as well as by the United States and Iran. Despite attempts at de-escalation, the stalemate persists and talks have not taken place.

Join Arab Center Washington DC to discuss the recent escalation of hostilities in the region, the economic, political, humanitarian, and strategic risks of a potential military conflagration, the possibility for negotiations and the measures needed to advance talks between Iran and the Trump Administration, and the impact of the current stalemate and policy responses from the actors involved.

Speakers:

  • Shireen Hunter, University Associate, Georgetown University
  • Kenneth Katzman, Middle East Specialist, Congressional Research Service 
  • Assal Rad, Research Fellow, National Iranian American Council
  • Barbara Slavin, Director and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

Moderator:

  • Daniel Brumberg, Associate Professor and Director, Democracy and Governance Studies, Georgetown University, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
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Peace Picks | July 29 – Aug 2

US-China Relations: The View From Cities And States | July 29, 2019 | 9:30 AM – 11:45 AM | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Throughout the United States, local leaders are stepping onto the world stage. Governors and mayors have expanded their international portfolios, including by launching initiatives to attract investment and jointly address transnational challenges like climate change. While economic interests previously guided much of sub-national outreach, cultural exchange and scientific partnership are also becoming important forces of attraction.

The U.S.-China relationship is no exception to this trend. Despite the shift in Washington toward viewing China as a strategic competitor, many state and local leaders continue to explore ways to seize opportunities for closer collaboration with Chinese counterparts. What are the key motivations for this outreach at the sub-national level? Are such efforts generating positive benefits? What effect, if any, are deepening relations between local governments in the United States and China having on the overall bilateral relationship? Are there risks from deepening sub-national U.S.-China relations that deserve greater scrutiny?

On July 29, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings will host a public event to explore the costs, benefits, and impacts of sub-national exchanges between the United States and China. Oregon Governor Kate Brown will join a keynote conversation moderated by award-winning journalist and author James Fallows. A high-level panel of experts and practitioners will then convene to discuss the potential promises and pitfalls of sub-national connections within the U.S.-China relationship.

Speakers:

Introduction

  • Cheng Li, Director – John L.  Thornton China Center, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy

Keynote Conversation

  • The Hon. Kate Brown, Governor – State of Oregon

Moderator:

  • James Fallows, National Correspondent – The Atlantic, Co-Author – “Our Towns: A 100,000-Mile Journey into The Heart of America”

Discussion

  • The Hon. Bob Holden, Former Governor – State of Missouri, Chairman and CEO – United States Heartland China Association
  • Amb. Nina Hachigian, Deputy Mayor of International Affairs – City of Los Angeles
  • Reta Jo Lewis, Senior Fellow and Director of Congressional Affairs – The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Moderator:

  • Ryan Hass, The Michael H. Armacost Chair, Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center

Development of Environmental Law and Enforcement in China | July 29, 2019 | 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM | Environmental Law Institute, Suite 700 | 1730 M Street NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

This year marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of the diplomatic relations between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China. Over the past decade, the U.S. government, civil society, academia, and businesses have been actively engaging with China on environmental governance through capacity-building, knowledge transfer, and other mechanisms. These efforts have been instrumental in transferring best practices in environmental governance, helping China develop towards an effective and predictable environmental regulatory system, encouraging the growth of a vibrant community of environmental advocates and officials, and moving towards a more level playing field for U.S. businesses.

In recent years, the Chinese government has made efforts to address environmental quality that have included the enactment of new laws on air pollution, water pollution, and contaminated sites, and provisions strengthening enforcement. While PM2.5 levels have declined significantly, much work remains to get air quality protective of public health, and formidable water pollution and soil contamination problems remain. 

Top U.S. government environmental lawyers will join John Pendergrass, Vice President of ELI, and Jennifer Turner, Director of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum to compare their recent experiences, and to discuss Chinese environmental law developments, new approaches to enforcement, and the effects of Chinese environmental laws on U.S. companies. 

Panelists:

  • Jeffrey Clark, Assistant Attorney General, Environment and Natural Resources Division (ENRD), Department of Justice
  • Matt Leopold, General Counsel, Environmental Protection Agency
  • Jon Brightbill, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Environment and Natural Resources Division (ENRD), Department of Justice

Moderator:

  • John Pendergrass, Vice President, Programs and Publications, Environmental Law Institute
  • Jennifer L. Turner, Director, China Environment Forum & Manager, Global Choke Point Initiative

Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections | July 29, 2019 | 12:30 AM – 2:00 PM |  The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

The July 2019 parliamentary elections are a pivotal event in Ukraine’s history as the people voted to elect a new parliament, which will form a new government. Running with a strong anti-corruption message, then political outsider Volodymyr Zelenskyy won a crushing victory in April’s presidential elections and again in the Rada elections, where exit polls show his party securing around 43 percent of the vote, a historic result and the most decisive of its kind in Ukraine since 1991. With an outright majority in the Rada a possibility, Zelenskyy may now have the mandate he needs to implement his anti-corruption program.

Panelists:

  • Adrian Karatnycky, Senior Fellow & Co-Director of the Ukraine in Europe Initiative, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
  • Ambassador John Herbst, Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
  • Dr. Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

Moderator:

  • Melinda Haring, Editor, UkraineAlert, Atlantic Council

Hong Kong and the Indo-Pacific Political Economy with former U.S. Consul GeneralKurt Tong | July 30, 2019 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 2nd Floor | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Kurt Tong, former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong and Macau, has returned to the United States following a three-year tour and has retired from the Foreign Service. He will join us at CSIS to discuss Hong Kong’s relationship with China and comment on the future direction of American economic policy in the region.

Speakers:

Introduction

  • Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS

Keynote Address

  • Amb. Kurt Tong, U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong and Macau

Armchair Discussion

  • Amb. Kurt Tong, U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong and Macau
  • Scott Kennedy, Senior Adviser, Freeman Chair in China Studies and Director, Project on Chinese Business and Political Economy, CSIS

Assessing Space Security: Threat and Response | July 31, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

It is a dynamic and fast-moving time with regard to the security of the outer space environment. In March 2018, India conducted a successful anti-satellite test. Russia and China continue to advance their anti-satellite weapons capabilities by developing various technologies, from laser weapons to ground-based anti-satellite systems. In response to this increasingly contested environment, President Donald Trump proposed the creation of a U.S. Space Force in 2018. The idea was not without controversy. While some experts lauded the decision, others advocated instead for a Space Command. A year in, that debate continues.

On July 31, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host a discussion on the evolving threats to space security and how the United States and the international community can most effectively respond to these challenges. Brookings Senior Fellow for Security and Strategy Frank Rose will be joined by an expert panel including Todd Harrison; Mallory Stewart; and Madelyn Creedon. Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon will moderate the discussion as well as share his thoughts on the issues.

Panelists: 

  • Madelyn R. Creedon, Former Principal Deputy Administrator – National Nuclear Security Administration, Nonresident Senior Fellow-the Brookings Institution
  • Todd Harrison, Director, Defense Budget Analysis, Director, Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow, International Security Program – CSIS
  • Frank A. Rose, Senior Fellow, Security and Strategy – Foreign Policy
  • Mallory Stewart, Principal Technical Staff – Sandia National Laboratory Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance – U.S. Department of State

Moderator:

  • Michael E. O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Director of Research – Foreign Policy, The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair

The New Battle for the Atlantic | July 31, 2019 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM |  The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

The North Atlantic has historically played a critical role in the great power conflicts of the 20th Century, serving as a strategic bridge between the United States and Europe during both World Wars and the Cold War. For this reason, sea power has long been a core element of NATO’s deterrence posture. However, as the world enters the ‘maritime century’ – a period transformed by trade and communication across the world’s oceans – emerging technologies and a rapidly changing global political landscape have begun to reshape the maritime security environment in the North Atlantic.

The reemergence of great power competition is forcing NATO to reinvest in capabilities for the maritime domain, where it has historically held a razor thin advantage. Faced with mounting tensions between Russia and the Alliance and an increasingly sophisticated Russian navy, the United States and NATO must rebuild and adapt their strategy and capabilities to secure the strategic link between the United States and Europe in the increasingly contested North Atlantic region.

Magnus Nordenman, a noted expert on NATO and security in Northern Europe and the former director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, will join us to discuss these important issues, which are also highlighted in his recent book, The New Battle for the Atlantic: Emerging Naval Competition with Russia in the Far North.


Are Sanctions Working? | July 31, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 11:45 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 2nd Floor | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

The CSIS Energy & National Security Program is pleased to invite you to Are Sanctions Working?, a conference examining the state of U.S. sanctions―what is different, what is and is not working, and implications for U.S. foreign policy, the global economy, and the energy sector.

The United States has employed sanctions as a foreign policy mechanism for decades.  In recent years, the United States has developed a new generation of more targeted, more agile economic sanctions.  It has become increasingly reliant on these new tools, and its ambitions for their impact have increased.

Whether more robust sanctions regimes have won any clear victories is a matter of debate.   In the last three years, U.S.-imposed unilateral and secondary sanctions regimes have sought to influence North Korea, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.  But countries that have been subject to sanctions for years have found ways to adjust to U.S. moves.

This conference will review the efficacy of the new style of U.S. sanctions, understand what is contributing to their success or failure, and gauge their future.  Speakers will also explore how sustained use of sanctions is impacting one universally important sector: the energy sector.

Speakers:

  • John J. Hamre, CSIS President and CEO
  • Sarah Ladislaw, Senior Vice President; Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program
  • Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and The Arctic; and Director Europe Program
  • Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President; Simon Chair in Political Economy and Senior Advisor for Asian Economics
  • Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director Middle East Program
  • Stephanie Segal, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy
  • Kevin Book, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Energy and National Security Program
  • Jeffrey Mankoff, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
  • Moises Rendon, Director, The Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow, Americas Program
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The waiting game should end

Since February 2019, millions of Algerians throughout the country have assembled en masse to demonstrate frustration and dissatisfaction with the political system of former president Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika, who had announced his candidacy for a fifth mandate. The combination of rampant corruption within the ranks of the senior officials alongside Bouteflika’s physical and mental impairment led Algerians to say enough. As the popular movement (Hirak) expanded and demonstrations grew larger and more consistent with each passing Friday, Bouteflika’s long-standing reign over Algeria came to an end in April with news of his resignation. Hirak now is in its 22nd week, maintaining its peaceful nature despite arrests and imprisonment of protesters and opposition figures.

Realizing the importance of Algeria, the Brookings Institution hosted an event on “Algeria’s Uprising: Protesters and the Military” on July 17. While the event was introduced by Vice President and Director Bruce Jones, the panel was composed of Africa Policy Analyst Alexis Arieff, Visiting Fellow Sharan Grewal, former Ambassador to Algeria Robert Ford. Brookings Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes moderated.

The event revolved around the findings of a survey Grewal conducted of over 9,000 Algerians via Facebook advertisements that targeted Algerians above the age of 18 and living in Algeria. In order to perform a comparative study between civilians and military personnel, the program used targeted individuals who showed an interest in or stated that they are part of the military in any way.

Of the 9,000 Algerians surveyed, over 7,000 were civilian, while just under 2,000 were military. Grewal presented the data through a series of graphs that covered topics such as support for protest goals, the scheduled July 4th Presidential elections, and potential civil-military frictions. Results showed a divide between junior and senior officers in the military, as soldiers and junior officers tended to side with the protest movement and the civilian population at large.

Following the presentation of the findings, Grewal was joined by Arieff, Cofman-Wittes, and Ford to discuss the numbers as well as the political climate in Algeria. What makes the Algerian movement so unique is that it has remained peaceful 5 months on—a feat that contrasts with the country’s brutal “Black Decade” civil war in the 1990s.

Arieff, comparing the two events, remarked that Algerians learned from the experiences of Syria and Libya as well as their own: they are reluctant to undergo a repetition of the civil war that traumatized a generation. Additionally, Arieff noted that the senior leadership in the military has observed that repression can backfire, as in Tunisia.

Although the Hirak has endured, it is not clear what will happen next. According to Grewal, the regime is unable to build a roadmap without the people’s consent since doing so will be rejected during the Friday protests. The next step should be a dialogue between the people and the current leadership; however, as Grewal pointed out, without the removal of the 2Bs (Bensalah and Bedoui)—both represent the old regime—such negotiations and talks will most likely not come about.

Ford noted that the next step should the emergence of a candidate or political group that represents Hirak; however, many have been reluctant to do so for fear of being discredited or targeted. Military pressure has not reached the levels of the 1990s, but Ford suggested that it might if the protests start losing popular support. The Algerian democratic transition process is, in essence,  a waiting game between the military leadership and the civilians. The next step is for the opposition to consolidate into some party or parties to bring the concerns of the people and translate them into institutional gains via negotiations.

As Ford remarked, “if you are in the game you can achieve gradual, but real change.” While the tens of millions of Algerians participating in the democratic protests for over 20 weeks is an achievement, setting the gears in motion for a governmental transition should be the next step.

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Only time will tell

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s July 1 presidential election with 53% of the votes. In addition, MORENA, AMLO’s political party,  joined a coalition with other minority parties to consolidate a majority of seats in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies.

Keen on understanding Mexico’s current political situation, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted an event on AMLO and the Fourth Transformation: One Year After Historic Election Victory on July 8. The panel was composed of Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas Professors Blanca Heredia and Mariá Amparo Casar, Global Fellow and Director of Buendia & Laredo Jorge Buendia, as well as Albright Stonebridge Group Senior Vice President Antonio Ortiz-Mena. The panel was moderated by Deputy Director of the Mexico Institute, Christopher  Wilson.

Wilson underlined that AMLO promised to fight corruption, portraying himself as someone who could be trusted also to maintain fiscal responsibility. The question is whether his wave of support will continue or crash? AMLO had one-third of voter support in 2006 and 2012, but he currently has an approval rating between 60 to 70 percent—impressive when compared with former President Peña Nieto. Expectations are high.

For example, 41 percent believe the current economic situation is worse as compared to 14 percent who think it has improved. However, 34 percent believe that it will improve compared to 24 percent who think otherwise. Buendia expects that AMLO’s approval rating will gradually decline as the year comes to an end since the “inaugural honeymoon” will end.

Blanca indicated that language is key for AMLO. He treats corruption as a moral rather than a legal problem. In addition, he focuses on transformation but not goals: destruction of the old system rather than construction of a new one. The new leadership has been described as a populist regime in the making—one that is unique because it is situated on the left side of the political spectrum. It is all about breaking apart a system that excludes parts of society. Blanca concluded that there is an opportunity to move away from the deformed development that has hindered Mexico in the past.

Though AMLO has indicated that he has already met 78 out of the 100 promises he made, Amparo Casar suggests AMLO administration policies aimed at security, inequality, and corruption are not as effective as they could be. AMLO’s insistence that “nothing and no one is above the law” and “if you have to choose between justice and the law, do not hesitate, choose justice” can be problematic and dangerous in a country like Mexico.

Ortiz-Mena concluded with an economic perspective—looking at the possibility of increased stability and growth in Mexico. While the growth rate has remained around that seen under Peña Nieto—2.3 percent—Ortiz-Mena believes that Mexico can reach a growth rate of 4 percent. He highlighted the risks that could result from AMLO’s aversion towards increasing taxes and national debt since in the case of a drop in GDP, Mexico would not have a strong safety net to rebound quickly. This is interesting since while the new administration is left-leaning it is economically conservative.

The panel showed wide variance on Mexico’s prospects. It is still not clear whether there will be major changes, or whether the country will regress to familiar patterns. A serious transformation is still uncertain. Only time will tell.

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Peace Picks: June 24-28

Closing the Gender Gap in Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament | June 24, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC 20036 | Register Here

Nearly twenty years after the UN Security Council called for the increased participation of women in peace and security decision-making, how much progress has been made in the arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament field? After surveying four decades of multilateral meetings and conducting interviews with diplomats, a new United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research report, Still Behind the Curve, finds that women remain underrepresented in key forums and sheds light on the obstacles hindering their full and equal participation.

Join us for a presentation of this new report and an interactive discussion on how to close the gender gap.

Speakers:

  • Renata Dwan, Director of the United Nations for Disarmament Research (which published the report Still Behind the Curve)
  • Laura Holgate, Vice President for Materials Risk Management at NTI (Nuclear Threat Initiative). She led the design and launch of Gender Champions in Nuclear Policy.
  • James Acton, Carnegie Endowment of International Peace – Jessica T. Mathews Chair and Co-Director of the Nuclear Policy Program

Bringing Americans Home, How is U.S. Hostage Policy Working? | June 24th, 2019 | 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM | New America | 740 15th St NW #900 Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

Having a son or daughter, husband or mother taken hostage or detained in a foreign land is one of the most frightening experiences imaginable. On the fourth anniversary of the implementation of reforms to U.S. hostage policy, The James W. Foley Legacy Foundation in partnership with New America present the findings of a new study, “Bringing American Home,” the first non-governmental review of U.S. hostage and detainee policy. The report is based on interviews with 27 American hostages, detainees, family members, and representatives and provides a unique insight into the experiences of Americans held abroad and their families.

To discuss the report and efforts to bring Americans held abroad home, New America welcomes Diane Foley, President and Founder of the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation; Cynthia Loertscher, the report’s author and primary researcher; Luke Hartig, a New America Fellow and former Senior Director for Counterterrorism at the National Security Council; and Rob Saale, former Director of the Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell and founder and CEO of Star Consulting and Investigations LLC.

Lunch will be provided.

Participants:

  • Diane Foley, President and Founder, James W. Foley Legacy Foundation
  • Cynthia Loertscher, Author and Primary Researcher, Bringing Americans Home
  • Luke Hartig, Fellow, New America International Security Program, Former Senior Director for Counterterrorism, National Security Council
  • Rob Saale, Former Director, Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell, Founder and CEO of Star Consulting and Investigations LLC

Moderator:

Peter Bergen, Vice President, New America


ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2019, The Pursuit of Peace Amidst Changing Regional Dynamics | June 24, 2019 | 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 2nd Floor | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Please join us for our annual ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2019. A timely discussion with current and former government officials, scholars, experts, and opinion leaders from the United States and Korea who will participate in a series of panel discussions to address the state of the U.S.-ROK alliance, the prospects for the peace building process on the Korean Peninsula, and the changing regional dynamics in East Asia and beyond.

This event will be co-hosted with the Korea Foundation, a leading organization of Korea’s international exchange and public policy initiative.

You are also invited to join us after the ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2019 for a special 10th anniversary celebration of the CSIS Korea Chair, starting at 5:00 PM.

Speakers:

  • Victor Cha, Senior Adviser and Korea Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Mark Lippert, Senior Advisor (Non-resident), Korea Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow, Korea Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Progress at Risk? First Annual Conference on Security, Migration, and the Rule of Law in the Northern Triangle of Central America | June 25, 2019 | 8:30 PM – 4:30 PM | 6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center | Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington DC 20004 | Register Here

Record numbers of Central Americans have fled the countries of the Northern Triangle during the first half of 2019, giving rise to abundant questions about how to address the drivers of migration. Central to addressing the challenge of migration is the ability of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, together with the United States, to effectively reduce violence and homicides; fight corruption and strengthen the rule of law; reform the police; and reintegrate returning or deported migrants.

Please join the Latin American Program and the Seattle International Foundation for a conference on Central American Security and Migration, featuring researchers from throughout the region who will present new findings on the complex issues driving migration and insecurity and discuss options for addressing these challenges.

Panel 1: Understanding Violence and Homicides in Central America

  • Mario Herrera, Estado de la Región, Lead Author: “Homicides in Central America: Toward a Better Understanding of the Trends, Causes, and Territorial Dynamics”
  • Laura Chioda, Senior Economist, The Chief Economist Office of the Latin American and Caribbean Region, World Bank
  • Erik Alda, Creative Associates
  • Eric L. Olson (Moderator), Director of Policy, Seattle International Foundation, Consultant, Latin American Program, Wilson Center

Panel 2: Promoting the Rule of Law and Fighting Corruption

  • Gabriela Castellanos, Director, National Anti-corruption Commission of Honduras
  • Alvaro Montenegro, Guatemalan Journalist, Columnist, and Coordinator of the Alliance for Reforms of the Justice and Electoral Systems
  • Arturo Aguilar (Moderator), Executive Director, Seattle International Foundation

Panel 3: Police Professionalization: Honduras’ Special Commission to Purge and Reform the Police

  • David Dye, Lead Author of “Police Reform in Honduras: The Role of the Special Purge and Transformation Commission”
  • Omar Rivera, Member, Special Commission for the Purging and Reform of the National Police, Honduras

Panel 4: Temporary Protected Status – What If They Return?

  • Mauricio Diaz, General Coordinator, FOSDEH
  • Maria Elena Rivera, Program Coordinator, Program on Public Policy Studies, FUNDAUNGO
  • Julia Gelatt, Senior Policy Analyst, US Immigration Program, Migration Policy Institute
  • Eric L. Olson (Moderator), Director of Policy, Seattle International Foundation, Consultant, Latin American Program, Wilson Center

What Does New Opinion Survey Data from Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan Tell Us? | June 26, 2019 | 10:00 AM | The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and the Arab Barometer invite you to join us for a panel discussion to mark the release of new public opinion survey data on the state of the economy, institutional trust, migration, government performance, media consumption, corruption, and foreign relations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan. The survey data was collected by the Arab Barometer, a nonpartisan research network that provides insight into the social, political, and economic attitudes and values of ordinary citizens across the Arab world.

A presentation of the survey data will be followed by a moderated panel discussion to discuss the implications for US policy and the region.

Panelists:

  • Dr Mark Tessler, Samuel J. Eldersveld Collegiate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Michigan
  • Dr Kathrin Thomas, Research Associate, Arab Barometer
  • Dr Abbas Kadhim, Director of the Iraqi Initiative, Atlantic Council
  • Mr Faysal Itani, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

Moderated by:

  • Ms Vivian Salama, Reporter, The Wall Street Journal

Fifth Annual Central and Eastern European Energy Security Conference | June 26, 2019 | 12:30 PM | The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

For the fifth rendition of the CEE conference, esteemed panelists and moderators will discuss and debate current Central and Eastern European energy policy, the transatlantic energy security nexus, and the movement towards European energy independence. This event is organized and sponsored in cooperation with the Slovak Presidency of the Visegrád Group.

Join us on Wednesday, June 26, 2019 from 12:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. at the Atlantic Council headquarters (1030 15th Street NW, West Tower Elevators, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005) for what is certain to be a rich and interesting conversation. This event is on-the-record and open to the media. Lunch will be served.

Speakers:

  • Dr Klaus-Dieter Borchardt, Deputy Director-General (Energy), European Commission
  • Mr András Bácsi-Nagy, Head of International Public Affairs, MOL Group
  • H.E. Václav Bartuška, Ambassador-at-Large for Energy Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic
  • Dr Artur Bobovnický, Director, Innovations and International Cooperation, Slovak Innovation and Energy Agency
  • Dr Barbara Dorić, Managing Director, LNG Croatia
  • Mr Amos Hochstein, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian Inc.
  • Mr Patrik Križanský, Managing Partner, Danubia NanoTech
  • Ms Emily Meredith, Deputy Bureau Chief, Energy Intelligence
  • Amb. Richard Morningstar, Founding Chairman, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
  • H.E. Pál Ságvári, Ambassador-at-Large for Energy Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary
  • H.E. Juraj Siváček, Ambassador-at-Large for Energy Security, Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of the Slovak Republic
  • Amb. András Simonyi, Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
  • Mr Christopher Smith, Senior Vice President for Policy, Government, and Public Affairs, Cheniere Energy, Inc.

Maritime Irregular Warfare: Preparing to Meet Hybrid Maritime Threats | June 26, 2019 | 11:45 AM – 1:30 PM | The Hudson Institute| 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here

Maritime irregular warfare represents an enduring and mounting challenge for the United States. Examples of related actions abound: Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea; possible Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping; China’s illegal fishing, dangerous maneuvers and alleged use of lasers, and other violations of international law in and beyond the South China Sea; North Korea’s illicit smuggling on the high seas; and maritime terrorism, piracy, and transnational trafficking.

To sharpen our understanding of these threats and initiate a discussion on what might be done, Hudson Institute will host the authors of two new books that address historical and current challenges of maritime irregular warfare. Their remarks will be followed by an expert panel on the implications for the Navy and U.S. national security, especially given the rise of what might be called an era of resurgent political warfare and hybrid threats. Hudson Institute Chair for Asia-Pacific Security and Senior Fellow Dr Patrick M. Cronin will moderate the discussion.

Speakers:

  • Benjamin Armstrong, Author, Small Boats and Daring Men: Maritime Raiding, Irregular Warfare, and the Early American Navy
  • Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute
  • Dr Peter Haynes, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; former Deputy Director, Strategy, Plans, and Policy (J5), U.S. Special Operations Command
  • Dr Martin N. Murphy, Visiting Fellow, Corbett Centre for Maritime Policy Studies and author, Small Boats, Weak States, Dirty Money: Piracy and Maritime Terrorism in the Modern World; Former Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
  • Linda Robinson, Senior International/Defense Researcher, RAND Corporation
  • Joshua Tallis, Author, The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers and Maritime Insecurity

A Different Kind of Prison: Mass Surveillance in Xinjiang and Its Global Implications | June 27, 2019 | 1:00 – 3:00 PM |  CSIS Headquarters, 2nd Floor | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

The Human Rights Initiative at CSIS invites you to a public event on the mass detention and surveillance of Muslims in Xinjiang, China and the risks such technologies may pose as they are implemented in other areas of China and globally.

Over one million Uyghurs and Muslims from other ethnic minority groups have been detained by the Chinese government and sent to “re-education” internment camps.  Sources indicate that detainees are psychologically and physically abused. Uyghurs outside the camps in Xinjiang are also not free, as they are kept under constant surveillance, often using advanced technology. The Chinese government is increasingly testing this technology in Xinjiang and exporting it nationally and globally, with concerning implications for democracy and human rights.

This event will focus on how this surveillance technology is being used and disseminated across the globe, which poses a risk of great harm to human rights and democracy, particularly if deployed without adequate safeguards.

Featuring keynote remarks and a moderated discussion with:

Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI), Member, House Armed Services Committee

Followed by a panel discussion among:

  • Sophie Richardson, China Director, Human Rights Watch
  • Sarah Cook, Senior Research Analyst, East Asia at Freedom House

Additional Panelists to be Announced

Moderator:

  • Amy Lehr, Director of Human Rights Initiative, CSIS

NATO at 70: Refocusing for Change? | June 27, 2019 | 2:00 PM | The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

Please join the Atlantic Council and NATO Defense College Foundation, in cooperation with the NATO Defense College and National Defense University, for a public panel discussion on “NATO at 70: Refocusing for Change?” on Thursday, June 27, 2019 from 2:00 p.m. to 6:10 p.m. at the Atlantic Council’s headquarters (1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005.)

The 70th anniversary of the Washington Treaty, the founding document of NATO, represents more than just a historical moment to commemorate NATO’s past, but also an opportunity to address the challenges facing the Alliance today and its mission going forward.

At this critical juncture, the Alliance faces an era of renewed great power competition, with the European security environment increasingly contested by both traditional and nontraditional actors. Challenges such as Russia’s aggression towards neighboring states and China’s increasing investment in Europe are forcing the United States and its NATO Allies to reimagine the Alliance’s approach to collective defense. While NATO is making progress on issues such as defense spending and military readiness, the Alliance must work with greater urgency to respond to 21st century challenges.

To inform and contribute to the discussion surrounding these issues, this high-level seminar will convene experts from both sides of the Atlantic. The seminar will feature two panel discussions. The first will focus on today’s evolving security environment in Europe and new ways to think about collective security, burden sharing, and partnerships. The second will focus on the need for a new strategic approach within NATO for today’s rapidly changing world. The seminar will also feature concluding remarks by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

Speakers to be announced.


The Impact Of Militias On Governance And Geopolitics In The Middle East And North Africa | June 28, 2019 | 10:00 AM- 11:30 AM | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Militia groups have become an increasing feature of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Often sponsored by rival outside powers, they have profound impact on local stability, internal politics, humanitarian access, and economic development, as well as on regional security and geopolitics. In Iraq, such paramilitary groups have mobilized and, in some cases, remobilized to counter the Islamic State (IS). Yet, even after territorial control was wrestled away from IS, the political and economic power of Al Hashd al-Shaabi, as the paramilitary groups are known in Arabic, has continued to grow. During the spring of 2019 tension between the United States and Iran, Iraq’s paramilitary groups became a key flashpoint. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, too, has been at the epicenter of regional rivalries and counterterrorism. And in Libya, infighting among the country’s militias has plunged the country into another phase of civil war.

On June 28, the Brookings Institution will host a panel conversation on the impact of militias in MENA and ways to address the paramilitary groups with Brookings Senior Fellows Shadi Hamid and Vanda Felbab-Brown; Richard E. Behrman Professor of Child Health and Society at Stanford University Paul Wise; Brookings John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy Jeffrey Feltman; and Senior Fellow Suzanne Maloney, who will moderate the event.

After the introductory comments, panelists will take questions from the audience.

Speakers:

  • Shadi Hamid, Brookings Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, U.S. Relations with the Islamic World
  • Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brookings Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
  • Paul Wise, Richard E. Behrman Professor of Child Health and Society at Stanford University Paul Wise
  • Jeffrey Feltman, Brookings John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy
  • Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative
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