peacefare.net

Kosovo needs to hedge

Kosovo prides itself on being the most pro-American country on earth. I don’t really know if it is true. Pew does not include Kosovo in its polling. There Vietnam holds the top position. But it is only 84% favorable to the US. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kosovo could equal or beat that.

There are good reasons for Kosovo’s pro-American lean. More than 90% of the population is Albanian. Most of them credit the United States for forcing Serbian Slobodan Milosevic strongman out of Kosovo in 1999. Even the Serbs and other minorities in Kosovo have some reason to be positive about the US, since NATO troops have protected them for more than 20 years. Whether they would admit it however is another question, since Serbia’s attitude toward the US is equivocal at best.

This week it was revealed that an American prosecutor at the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague has filed charges against Kosovo President Thaci, former Assembly Speaker Veseli, and eight others. It is inconceivable that the American envoy handling Kosovo and Serbia, Richard Grenell, was not informed in advance. He did nothing to stop the revelation, which was a break with the court’s normal procedure, and quickly welcomed Thaci’s decision not to come to Washington for talks with Serbian President Vucic this weekend.

I have nothing against charges for war crimes and crimes against humanity, provided there is sufficient evidence that can be presented in court. If confirmed by one of the judges, the President, Veseli, and the other indictees should resign and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done (several times).

But this incident confirms what I have been telling my Kosovar colleagues for over a year: to diversify their sources of support. The United States is simply no long a reliable advocate of the statehood, independence, and sovereignty of Kosovo. The Trump Administration has for some time leaned in Serbia’s direction on major issues: land and people swaps, tariffs Kosovo levied in retaliation for Serbia’s derecognition campaign, and the leadership of Kosovo’s government, which was changed as the result of American pressure.

The new prime minister, Avdullah Hoti, has also cancelled his appearance in Washington. This is understandable. He has only a one vote margin in the parliament and owes his premiership to President Thaci, who blocked new elections after the previous government fell to a no-confidence vote. Hoti has outlined a clear and I would say compelling platform for the talks with Belgrade, but he is not a political heavyweight and needs support from two-thirds of the parliament for anything he agrees with Serbia. Going to Washington would have left him exposed at home during a crucial juncture in Kosovo politics.

The hour is late, but I believe that Kosovo needs to find some new friends. Germany is a vital supporter, not only because of its weight within the EU but also because it has been unalterably opposed to the land and people swaps the Americans have been open to. Japan, seeing China court Serbia, has upped its game with Kosovo. That’s good.

But most of all Kosovo needs to crack the code on getting the European countries that do not recognize its sovereignty to change their minds. The European Union negotiator for the Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak, promised repeatedly that Slovakia would recognize Kosovo while he was that country’s Foreign Minister. The time has come for him to deliver. EU High Representative Borrell, formerly Foreign Minister of the cardinal non-recognizer, Spain, should also be told that the time has come for Madrid to realize that recognition of Kosovo would in no way undermine Spain’s position on Catalonia, unless Madrid regards itself as analogous to Milosevic’s Belgrade.

If Donald Trump goes down to already likely defeat in November, Kosovo can expect the Biden Administration to return to the traditional American support for its statehood, sovereignty, and independence. But Kosovo will still be a small country in a world increasingly dominated by geopolitics and geoeconomics. The Americans may be more supportive under Biden, but they will also have their hands full with other issues. Bandwagoning with the US paid dividends once upon a time, but sovereign and independent states don’t need to stay in love. Kosovo should hedge its bets.

Kosovo is in trouble

The Kosovo Specialist Chambers (KSC) and Specialist Prosecutor’s Office (SPO) charged with ensuring accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the aftermath of the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war announced today that the prosecutor on April 24 charged President Thaci and former Speaker of the parliament Veseli, who is now the head of the political party Thaci founded. The announcement added:

The Indictment is only an accusation. It is the result of a lengthy investigation and reflects the SPO’s determination that it can prove all of the charges beyond a reasonable doubt. A KSC Pre-Trial Judge is currently reviewing the Indictment to decide on whether to confirm the charges.

The Prosecutor is said to have found it necessary to make the charges public because of “efforts by Hashim Thaci and Kadri Veseli to obstruct and undermine the work of the KSC.”

This surprised me. First, because I have doubted that sufficient evidence still exists even to bring charges, never mind convict. Second, because it comes just days before Pristina and Belgrade are supposed to send delegations to Washington for talks sponsored by the Trump Administration. The SPO is a Trump-named American. I suppose someone may have thought publicizing this secret indictment would bring pressure to bear on Thaci, but it is hard to picture him coming to DC with this indictment pending.

In principle, the talks could proceed anyway, as both the Constitutional Court and the Kosovo Assembly have decided that the responsibility for them lies with the government headed by Avdullah Hoti, not with the President. It may test whether the Prime Minister can exercise independent authority, but it will necessarily put him at considerable political risk. If he appears in Washington, he will be criticized at home and at an enormous disadvantage diplomatically.

It is also a test of Thaci and Veseli. If confirmed by a KSC judge, they should both resign their positions and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done several times. Their resignations would make big waves in Kosovo politics. The Assembly would need to replace Thaci, which would be a big challenge in the aftermath of the indictment. Replacing the head of a political party would be far less controversial, but still consequential. Would the PDK (Democratic Party of Kosovo) respect its Kosovo Liberation Army heritage, or move beyond it to choose someone less connected to the armed rebellion against Serbia?

If Thaci and Veseli do not resign, Kosovo will face other challenges. Neither Europe nor America will be interested in meeting with or helping politicians under indictment. The result will be international isolation. The political response inside Kosovo will be defiance. It is hard to picture anything positive coming of that kind of confrontation. Prospects for international investment, cooperation with NATO, visa-free travel in the EU, and other aspirations will be dashed.

Belgrade of course will be pleased with the indictment, both because it has sought justice for crimes against Serbs in the aftermath of the war and because it will give Serbia a leg up in any negotiations with Europe and the US. Belgrade may try to reopen the question of territorial compromise with Kosovo, claiming that the indictment proves Serbs should not be expected to live in a country dominated by criminal enemies.

To add insult to injury, the strongest supporter of Kosovo in the US Congress, chair of the House International Relations Committee Eliot Engel, was soundly defeated yesterday in a Democratic Party primary in New York City. He will speak for himself, but I won’t be surprised if Engel calls for resignations before he leaves office in January.

So the indictment is not only a personal question for Thaci and Veseli. It is an institutional and international one as well. Kosovo is in trouble.

Next weekend the Balkans come to DC

Sunday’s Serbian parliamentary election delivered a resounding landslide to President Aleksandar Vucic, as the main opposition parties decided to boycott. They rightly claimed conditions for free and fair elections did not exist, due in large part to media that are not free and courts that are not independent. I still might have preferred they participate, if only to provide a serious opposition voice in parliament, but that is water under the bridge now.

Vucic, elected to a five-year term in 2017, will stand again in 2022. The opposition is divided, incoherent, and weak. Some are right-wing Serb nationalists indistinguishable from the war criminals of the 1990s who sought to create Greater Serbia by chasing Bosniaks, Croats, and Albanians from their homes in Serb-populated or claimed areas of former Yugoslavia. Some are devoted liberal democrats who want to see equal rights for all citizens throughout the Balkans, justice for the victims of the 1990s, and Serbian membership in the European Union. It will be difficult to unify the Serbian opposition, but partial unification brought down Milosevic at the polls. It could happen again.

Vucic, once a minister in Milosevic governments, enjoys the blessings of the nationalists. He has abandoned the unabashed pro-European stance of his last election campaign and now cozies up to Beijing and Moscow, the former because of its money and the latter because of its weapons and Slavic identity. He has harsh words for Europe, despite its substantial assistance and ongoing negotiations for EU accession, and enjoys a good reputation with the Trump Administration, which holds liberal democracy and the EU in disrepute. Ethnic (white) nationalism the Administration’s only consistent ideology. While the State Department was reserved in its reaction to the parliamentary election, the White House will no doubt greet Vucic warmly next weekend, when he is expected to drop in for talks with Kosovo President Thaci under the aegis of former Ambassador to Germany and former Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell.

Some may still hope Vucic will use his strong political position in Serbia to bite the bullet on Kosovo. His position is so strong that he could survive announcing that Belgrade will recognize its now-independent province, exchange ambassadorial-level representatives with it, and sponsor its UN membership. But that isn’t going to happen because he wants Serb-populated territory in exchange. There is little else he can ask for, as the EU and US have provided Serbia with virtually all the goodies in their pockets. Some think a massive investment program might move Vucic in the right direction, but who has the money for that right now? Grenell says he will focus the talks on economic issues. I hope these will include implementing the many technical agreements Pristina and Belgrade have reached but not implemented, as well as removal of the non-tariff trade barriers that their respective chambers of commerce understand well.

It’s incongruous that Washington is focused on economic issues, which are the natural purview of the EU, while Brussels will be focusing on the bigger political questions, on which it has little purchase. This division of labor is more the result of competition than cooperation. It won’t likely last. Virtually any economic issue can be turned into a sovereignty question. All sovereignty questions have economic dimensions. The US and EU would both do better working together than competing, but that is not possible for the Trump Administration. It loathes the EU, and many Europeans, especially Germans displeased by his tenure as ambassador in Berlin, loathe Richard Grenell.

Expectations for next weekend’s meeting should be minimal, but we should also expect President Trump to try to take credit for what he will describe, if anything happens at all, as a terrific breakthrough, one better than any president has ever previously achieved in the Balkans (never mind the two wars brought to an end during Bill Clinton’s presidency). Exaggerated bluster is Trumps only real talent. It hasn’t been working well lately, because Covid-19, North Korean, Iran, Venezuela, China, and even Russia haven’t been yielding to Trump’s reality show threats. Maybe he’ll have better luck with Presidents Thaci and Vucic, but I doubt it. They both know he won’t deliver on any overblown economic packages and are likely, and wisely, looking past him to the day President Biden takes office.