Trump’s second wave
Yesterday was the worst day of Covid-19 in the US. Not just because more than 2000 people died (as they have every day since April 8) and about 30,000 new cases were confirmed, but because the most reliable of the modeling groups more than doubled its estimate of deaths by August. The “opening of the economy” that President Trump is cheering is now projected to kill an additional 70,000 Americans or so.
This new projection also spells eventual disaster for the economy. As cases expand in states that failed ever to close and that opened prematurely, people will return to quarantining themselves, disrupting the recovery and reducing demand dramatically. The impact will not be limited to a few states, as infected individuals will be traveling country-wide. The still negligible availability of tests to the broader public will guarantee that they infect many others, without any serious possibility of contact tracing in many parts of the country. This is a chain reaction. Once it starts, it will be just as difficult to stop as the first wave, which is still ongoing.
Donald Trump is trying to shift the blame to China, where officials initially tried to hush news of the new corona virus, and the World Health Organization, which praised the Chinese for their vigorous response later. But the President himself repeatedly also praised the Chinese reaction and delayed action in the US to meet the challenge. During January, February, and at least half of March, Trump did everything he could to minimize the epidemic and delay a serious response. The Federal government failed to provide for adequate testing and never insisted on social distancing.
Donald Trump is politically responsible for this mess. Not just because the buck stops on the President’s desk, but also because his decisions and non-decisions determined the outcome. The trillions of dollars in stimulus money the Congress has appropriated are going to fail to have the intended impact if the second wave of this virus is as big–or possibly even bigger–than the first. Jobs, businesses, and profits are all going to be hit harder than they have been so far.
Anthony Fauci, now muzzled, gave what is likely his farewell interview as a government employee to National Geographic. He is now muzzled and may quit or be fired. He finds no evidence that the Covid-19 virus was made in a lab or even that it unintentionally crossed from a non-human to human host there, despite the brazen claims of Secretary of State Pompeo, who wouldn’t know a virus from a tree. Fauci is also anticipating a second wave. His only bit of hope is for an early vaccine, which won’t however arrive before January. By then, Trump’s second wave will have killed 70,000 more Americans.
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Stevenson’s army, May 5
– Several reports cite other governments that dispute the Pompeo claims about the Wuhan lab. See this from the Guardian and this from FP.
-But Post columnist Henry Olsen sees the China issue as good politics.
– Dan Baer proposes an alternative approach.
– Since I made so much of my fight to kill the B-1 when I was a Senate staffer, I feel obligated to send this report on how the plan is still in business.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 4
– Last week, the DNI released a formal statement on China and the coronavirus, leaving undetermined whether it might have come from inside the Wuhan lab.
– But the president had his own different view.
– As did SecState Pompeo.
He has been the point man in the administration’s anti-China campaign.
– Now DHS – a member of the intelligence community,but not usually in the forefront — has leaked a deliberately unclassified paper arguing Chinese culpability in the pandemic.
-Today at 3pm the Pulitzer prizes will be announced.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Never let a crisis go to waste
“The region already faced significant economic fragility prior to the pandemic, but the coming recession will hurt the Middle East especially hard.” On May 1, the Wilson Center hosted a panel discussion on “The Middle East Workforce and COVID-19: Resetting the Regional Economic Formula.” The discussion featured six speakers:
Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al-Thani: Ambassador of the State of Qatar to the US
Theodore Kattouf: President of AMIDEAST and Former United States Ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates
Denise Lamaute: Economic Officer, Middle East Bureau, USAID
Andrew Baird: President and CEO, Education for Employment-Global
Alexander Farley: Research Associate
Merissa Khurma: Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives, moderated
Current context
In Ambassador Al-Thani’s keynote speech, he pointed out that unemployment, the lack of human development, and the absence of social justice have posed a threat to political, economic, and social instability in the Middle East. The outbreak of COVID-19 across the world has led to a greater challenge. The collapse of oil prices as well as the decline of tourism revenue, emigrant remittances, and economic demand are aggravating the region’s structural weaknesses. Limited opportunities for youth and their lack of prospects will create discontent and generate distrust to political leaders. Al-Thani believes that this is the main reason of the Arab Spring.
Baird thinks that COVID-19 is an enormous disrupter. The hospitality industry, including restaurants, hair salons, and manufacturing, are suffering from this crisis. There are, however, winners at this point, including home health care, public health workers, transportation, agriculture, and the information technology sector. Baird is concerned that this crisis may have a long-term impact on SMEs, making them more vulnerable. They will take a longer time to recover than larger businesses. Additionally, Baird emphasized that the crisis will widen the digital divide between men and women.
Education and workforce
Farley summarized key findings of An Analysis of Workforce Asymmetries in the Middle East and North Africa:
- The skills mismatch and deficit of needed skills in the labor market
- Private sector and education uncoordinated
- Education systems do not emphasize essential skills
- Technical vocational education and training (TVET) is neglected and suffers stigma
- Mindsets adhere to a hierarchy of public over the private sector
- SMEs face barriers to expansion, economic growth is limited
- Entrepreneurship and new business creation is low
- Women ahead in education but behind in workforce participation
Kattouf said that during the Ottoman period, there was no education except for certain elites who were educated by the British and French to serve colonists’ needs. In the Gulf, most of the current countries were protectorates without education. It was not until Nasser and Arab socialism that an aspiration for universal education and literacy started.
While the number of educational institutions is now overwhelming, the quality of higher education is decreasing as more students are admitted to public universities and good professors prefer to teach in the Gulf for higher salaries. Kattouf added that when the youth graduate from tertiary education, they are equipped with fewer skills than expected and there are fewer jobs than needed.
Remedies
Al-Thani believes that Middle Eastern states need to take collective action to make long-term, youth-centered development agendas in order to address the challenge of workforce asymmetries, including protecting youth rights and allowing them to participate in public life.
Farley listed various recommendations from An Analysis of Workforce Asymmetries in the Middle East and North Africa:
- Realigning education systems to labor market needs
- Rethinking assessment and tracking student progress
- Upgrading the TVET pathway
- Strengthening entrepreneurship and SMEs
- Increasing female labor force participation through multiple interventions
Denise suggests that governments, the private sector, and education systems should pursue a firm understanding of the region’s demographics, the evolving demands for skills, and the connections between providing goods and providing services. Since the pandemic forces people to embrace digital tools, it may push a “fourth Industrial Revolution.” This revolution can lead to faster technology adoption, increased productivity and performance, emergence of new markets and new consumers, the relocation of value chains, and job loses as well as job gains. Since the MENA region possesses a young workforce, they will be ready to adopt the “fourth Industrial Revolution” to create more opportunities and changes.
Baird resonated Denise’s point to never let a good crisis go to waste. He suggests that the financial system can bring the private sector closer to education. As governments exert more control over the private sector, they can take advantage of it to propose women friendly policies, including women friendly transportation, anti-harassment policy, and day care.
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Peace Picks| May 4- May 9
- CSIS Debate Series: Do Human Rights Protections Advance Counter-terrorism Objectives | May 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
Does democracy foster economic growth? Do human rights protections advance counterterrorism objectives? Does great power competition hurt or empower the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa? Since the 1990s, there generally has been consensus about U.S. priorities and policies toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
Speakers:
Rashid Abdi: Former Project Director, Horn of Africa, International Crisis Group
Dr. Naunihal Singh: Assistant Professor of National Security, US Naval War College
Colonel (ret.) Chris Wyatt: Director of African Studies, US Army War College
Karen Allen: Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Security Studies (ISS); Former Foreign Correspondent, BBC News
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
- Webinar-Disinformation pandemic: Russian and Chinese information operations in the COVID-19 era| May 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | AEI | Register Here
Was the COVID-19 virus produced in the US? Was it created by the US Army? So Moscow and Beijing would have you believe.
Russia and China aggressively manipulate perceptions to achieve their own aims. Their increasingly aggressive information campaigns are converging in method and narrative. What can the US and its allies — and the average citizen — do to inoculate against these disinformation viruses?
Speakers:
Frederick W. Kagan: Resident Scholar; Director, Critical Threats Project
Dan Blumenthal: Director, Asian Studies; Resident Fellow
Zack Cooper: Research Fellow
- COVID-19, Oil Prices, and Prospects for Iran-GCC Relations | May 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The concurrent crises of COVID-19 and tumbling oil prices are deeply felt across the Gulf region. The U.S.-led sanctions, already a huge burden on Iran’s economy, massively limit Tehran’s foreign trade options and export revenue as the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates the country’s economic troubles. On the other hand, the energy-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are facing a steep decline in oil and gas export revenues for the foreseeable future. These economic shocks coincide with a sharp and a financially expensive competition for influence across the Middle East.
How might the present deteriorating economic realities impact the geopolitical calculations of Iran, the GCC states, and U.S. interests in the Gulf region? Will the economic downturn shape the willingness of the GCC states to stand with the Trump administration in confronting Tehran leading up to the US elections in November? Is there any opportunity for Iran and the GCC states to consider a reset in relations that have been contentious since 1979. MEI is pleased to host a panel to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Mohammed Baharoon: Director general, B’huth
Dina Esfandiary: Fellow, The Century Foundation
Bilal Saab: Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security program, MEI
Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
- Analyzing the Impact of the “Maximum Pressure” Campaign on Iran | May 6, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
The Islamic Republic of Iran is in the midst of a severe political and economic crisis brought on by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign and worsened by the coronavirus outbreak. The regime has called for Washington to lift U.S. sanctions on humanitarian grounds, and significant voices, including from previous administrations, have called for the easing of sanctions on the basis of compassion.
However, the crisis presents the United States with opportunities to increase the pressure not only on the regime, but also on its proxies—Hezbollah first among them. What is the range of policy options toward Iran and Hezbollah that Washington faces? What is the goal of maximum pressure as currently implemented? Should the Trump administration stay the course or consider refining the policy?
Speakers:
David Asher: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Michael Doran: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Scott Modell: Managing Director, Rapidan Energy Group and former Senior Iran Operations Officer, Central Intelligence Agency
Mohsen Sazegara: President, Research Institute on Contemporary Iran
- Safeguarding Asia’s Most Vulnerable During COVID-19 | May 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
COVID-19 has taken the world by a storm, but none are more deeply affected than the world’s most vulnerable. Refugees and the internally displaced, individuals living under authoritarian regimes, and others living in countries with limited healthcare resources are facing, in some cases, life or death situations. While many countries battling their own domestic fight with COVID-19 are tempted to turn inwards, the U.S. as a global leader in the promotion of freedom has a responsibility to galvanize attention and partnership to ensure that the world’s most needy are receiving the assistance they need during the pandemic. Join us to learn about the unique challenges faced by Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, the impoverished in North Korea, and the marginalized in China.
Speakers:
Daniel Sullivan: Senior Advocate for Human Rights, Refugees International
Kristina Olney: Director of Government Relations, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
Jeongmin Kim: Seoul Correspondent, NK News
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