Serbia should align
A group of people described to me as “prominent individuals from all walks of life in Serbia” have issued an appeal in the runup to the (remote) EU/Western Balkans Summit meeting on Wednesday:
The tone is muted, but the overall message is clear: democracy is in danger in Serbia, due in part but not only to executive action in response to the Covid-19 epidemic.
In fact democracy was at risk in Serbia well before this year. President Vucic had already accumulated vast power, including over the media and judiciary as well as uncontested control of the executive branch. There has been no effective opposition in parliament for years. Protesters against his rule came from all ends of the political spectrum, liberal and ultra-nationalist, but they had little impact. Any hope they had of winning in elections evaporated when the epidemic caused the polling to be postponed.
As in so many other countries, including my own, the epidemic has aggravated tendencies that already existed in Serbia. In mid-March, President Vucic had harsh words for the lack of EU solidarity with his country and praise for the Chinese, who have been investing more in Serbia than in the rest of Balkans. This was an intensification of his effort to return Serbia from the nominally pro-Western stance he adopted in the last Serbian presidential election in 2017 to a “non-aligned” one in keeping with the Socialist Yugoslav tradition. He had already balanced Serbia’s cooperation with NATO by leaning heavily in Russia’s direction, including by procuring its military equipment and refusing to implement EU-levied (Ukraine-related) sanctions.
Much of the rest of the Western Balkans is choosing an unequivocally Western path for its economic and political development, even if performance often falls short. Bosnia is the exception, but only because its Serb-run Republika Srpska constrains the country from making a serious run at NATO. Montenegro is still struggling with an anti-independence, anti-NATO opposition, but it has joined NATO and its government is clear about its goal of aligning economically and politically with Europe. The same is true in North Macedonia, which likewise has joined NATO after settling its “name” issue with Greece. Kosovo has always been clear about its pro-NATO, pro-EU ambitions, despite the obvious shortfalls in its performance.
Serbia is different for several reasons. The Orthodox connection is stronger than in the other countries of the Balkans, Russophilia and ethnic nationalism are dominant sentiments in the still unreconstructed right wing of its politics, and Belgrade is the successor state to Socialist Yugoslavia in much more than the legal sense. Some Serbs are nostalgic for the unaligned Yugoslav role, which they believe brought goodies from both East and West. Others just like the familiarity of the Slav-dominated East.
No one should begrudge Serbia the benefits of Russian and Chinese investment. Belgrade needs every dinar it can get for its moribund economy. Germany does a lot of business with Russia too, but has nevertheless remained a leader in the liberal democratic world.
But it is high time the EU makes clear that the path to accession will not be open unless Serbia aligns itself economically and politically with Western standards, however much it enjoys Russian and Chinese cash. It is far from that ideal today. That is the significance of the pre-Summit appeal. Brussels and the EU national capitals need to send a strong message to Serbia: you are not getting into our club unless you meet entry requirements, in particular the Copenhagen criteria:
Membership requires that candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. Membership presupposes the candidate’s ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/enlargement/ec/cop_en.htm
Sad to say, the Europeans can expect no support for now from the US in the effort to turn Serbia into a viable accession candidate. Washington is hostile to the EU, uninterested in promoting democracy except in adversary states, and cares only about quid pro quo rather than international norms or maintaining alliance relationships.
So yes, the EU/Western Balkans Summit should send a message not only about solidarity in the face of Covid-19, but also about maintaining European standards and requiring adherence to them by countries that seek membership. An anocratic Serbia is not one that can accede to the EU. Vucic should be told to align, or find Serbia lagging in the regatta for EU membership.
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Stevenson’s army, May 1
-WaPo says the administration is developing a package of anti-China measures,
many extreme and unprecedented, like demanding reparations for pandemic
costs and refusing to pay interest on Chinese-held US bonds.[As I said
in class, I support vigorous US measures to thwart Chinese military
expansion and to compete economically, especially in advanced
technologies. But I resent Trump’s weaponizing these measures mainly for
his political campaign and as a distraction from his delays and
failures handling the pandemic.]
– Part of this effort, NYT reports, is pressuring the intelligence community to prove Chinese culpability for release of the coronavirus.
– And SecState Pompeo was already in a pissing contest with Beijing.
– WSJ profiles national security adviser O’Brien, who says NSC staff is now down to the 120s.
– Yes, the FISA court consists of Article III [life-tenured] federal judges.
– NYT reports that Zoom sessions can be bad for your health.
And while I’m in a grumpy mood, how about this:
Lawmakers Vote by Mail to Roll Back Vote by Mail
April 30, 2020 at 3:10 pm EDT
“An emergency plan for Louisiana’s delayed spring elections was approved by the state Legislature after Republican lawmakers rolled back an expansion of mail-in ballots for people concerned about the coronavirus,” the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.
“Lawmakers voted by mail on the emergency plan.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Iraq between two hard places
Munquith Dagher suggests that Iran is acquiescing in Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s nomination as Iraq’s Prime Minister because of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ weakness in the wake the Soleimani assassination and the decline of its soft power inside Iraq. The smart money is betting that the parliament will approve al-Kadhimi, the third Prime Minister-designate in the current round, by the May 9 deadline, though that is far from guaranteed.
The former reformist intelligence chief, if he gains a majority, will face an unusually fraught situation in the midst of Ramadan:
- Covid-19: While the Shia authorities were quick to end religious ceremonies and the Ministry of Health has reacted reasonably well, the pandemic will strain Iraq’s limited health system.
- Oil prices: The collapse of oil prices to around $20/barrel wrecks havoc with Iraq’s budget, which is premised this year on $56/barrel. Oil represents virtually all of the government’s revenue and the country’s exports.
- Iran/US tensions: For the moment, Washington and Tehran have backed off from their tit-for-tat attacks between Iranian proxy militias and US forces inside Iraq. Washington has also approved the waivers Iraq needs to continue importing natural gas from Iran, which otherwise would have contravened US sanctions. But nothing has been resolved between Tehran and Washington. There is no reason to believe re-escalation can’t happen again some time during the year.
- Popular demonstrations: Until Covid-19 struck, Iraq was facing a popular uprising against its sectarian/ethnic political system that caused the resignation of (still acting) Prime Minister Adil Abdel Mahdi. Popular sentiment in favor of changing the system is still running strong.
- New elections: Al-Kadhimi will need to prepare for new elections as soon as Covid-19 conditions permit, under a law passed last December that provides for smaller single-member parliamentary constituencies intended to weaken the stranglehold of Baghdad’s political party bosses. But the new system requires a census that will be difficult to conduct unless Iraq issues new “smart” ID cards.
- Relations with the US: A bilateral “strategic framework” meeting is scheduled at the level of Under Secretary of State for June 2. While its formal agenda will be broader, the key issues have to do with security: whether US troops will stay in Iraq or leave, the continuing fight against ISIS resurgence in isolated rural areas (especially in the no-man’s-land between the Iraqi army and Kurdistan Regional Government peshmerga), and whether and how to repatriate the many Iraqi ISIS fighters still in Syria.
This would be a formidable set of challenges under any circumstances, but it will be especially difficult to meet them in the midst of a pandemic and a big global economic recession.
Therein, however, may lie the silver lining, at least for the longer term. Iraq can no longer afford to depend entirely on oil. It will be compelled to diversify its economy. It has already embarked on a World Bank project to end flaring of natural gas, it needs refineries, and its agricultural sector has great potential. Iraqi politicians have generally viewed the private sector as an enemy. They will need to drop that attitude.
There is also some good news on the security front, despite the real threat to both the US and Iraqi forces from Covid-19. The Iraqis aim for complete removal of US troops in the long term and believe they already no longer need them for the kinetic fight against ISIS. The Americans however also provide training and intelligence support that is still required, if not from the US bilaterally then perhaps indirectly through NATO, if that presence can be preserved.
Baghdad aims for balance between Iran, its powerful neighbor, and the more distant but still vital US. It wants good relations with both the Great Satan and the Axis of Evil. Iraq is between two hard places.
PS: For a far more pessimistic view, and hope the US can be helpful, see Samir Sumaida’ie’s piece.
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Stevenson’s army, April 30
– I do urge you to read the new Foreign Affairs piece by Prof. Brands and Peter Feaver and Will Imboden rebutting the argument that the US foreign policy elite, “the Blob,” have failed miserably.
-WaPo reports the continuing interagency fight over China, especially the restriction of medical imports.
– WaPo also profiles Matt Pottinger, deputy NSA and one of the leading China hawks.
– NYT legal writer says the executive order on meatpacking plants doesn’t go very far.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 29
– It looks as if the appeals court is favorable to the House’s position that the executive branch should comply with House subpoenas. NYT says same.
-Meanwhile, SecDef Esper is again shifting funds for the border wall — and away from European initiatives to counter Russia.
– The president has signed an order invoking the Defense Production Act in order to keep meat processing plants open. It does say: Accordingly, I find that meat and poultry in the food supply chain meet the criteria specified in section 101(b) of the Act (50 U.S.C. 4511(b)). Under the delegation of authority provided in this order, the Secretary of Agriculture shall take all appropriate action under that section to ensure that meat and poultry processors continue operations consistent with the guidance for their operations jointly issued by the CDC and OSHA.
But nothing about immunity from suits.
– I disagree with many of his arguments but respect retired USAF Major General Charlie Dunlap and want to share his views on the Crozier case.
– Dan Drezner says the new bipartisan consensus on China is flawed like the old consensus.
– There are several new CRS reports on aspects of the Covid-19 challenge.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 28
– “Current and former officials” tell WaPo that the President’s Daily Brief contained a dozen warnings about the coronavirus in Jan & Feb.
-Commerce has expanded the list of products that will now require an export license to China because of potential military applications.
– In a sign that the Supreme Court may duck the issue of congressional subpoenas for Trump’s tax returns, the Court has asked lawyers to submit briefs on whether the matter is a “political question.”
-Daily Beast wonders what happened to Jared Kushner’s shadow task force on coronavirus.
– Risa Brooks sees growing efforts by civilians to politicize the US military.The post has a link to a long article by Brooks in International Security where she sharply criticizes the Huntington model of civilian control. [I agree with her and with Eliot Cohen’s idea of an unequal dialogue.]
-SAIS profs Barno and Bensahel describe how the pandemic will change the US military.
– Brookings has a bunch of products on China and technology.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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