Complaint department, North Macedonia
I received today this letter from Ali Ahmeti, the President of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI). It is the leading Albanian opposition party in North Macedonia. The letter’s aim is to generate action by the US and EU:
I am writing to you today with deep concern about recent political and constitutional developments in North Macedonia that threaten the historic achievements of the Ohrid Agreement, as well as the fundamental principles of equality and peace in our multiethnic state, particularly for the Albanian community in North Macedonia.
It is troubling that plans, surprisingly announced by the government itself, indicate that the Constitutional Court intends to annul key provisions of the Law on the Use of Languages, which established the Albanian language as an equal official language under Amendment 5 of the Constitution. This poses a severe blow to the Ohrid Agreement, interethnic harmony, and stability in the country, potentially taking us back to the pre-2001 conditions that led to crisis and conflict.
Furthermore, the Constitutional Court’s decision to prohibit the identification of citizens’ ethnic affiliation within state institutions undermines the principle of collective rights of ethnic communities and nullifies the core balancing mechanisms and the Badinter principle, which are central to the Ohrid Agreement.
These mechanisms were established to guarantee the collective rights of ethnic communities based on demographic reality, thereby providing essential protection against any form of domination. By eliminating the declaration of ethnic affiliation, the Constitutional Court is breaching the Constitution itself, whose fundamental value is fair and adequate representation, effectively reverting us to pre-Ohrid conditions.
Lastly, following the recent elections, the fundamental principle of the Ohrid Agreement, which requires the formation of a political majority based on fair representation of ethnic communities, has been severely violated.
This action is not merely an issue for the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), but affects the principle of fair representation guaranteed by Amendment 6 of North Macedonia’s Constitution, serving as a safeguard against majority dominance over minorities.
These three significant setbacks to the foundations of the Ohrid Agreement pose a serious threat to peace, stability, interethnic harmony, and multiethnic democracy in North Macedonia.
These are not merely internal political matters but carry severe regional implications for overall stability. These interventions threaten to dismantle the key elements of peace and equality, taking us back to a period of crisis and conflict.
At this critical juncture, I urge for joint and decisive action to protect the achievements of the Ohrid Agreement and the guaranteed rights of the Albanian community. Your engagement in raising international awareness and mobilizing relevant institutions regarding this constitutional and political crisis is essential.
Thank you for your tireless efforts to promote peace, stability, and European integration in the Western Balkans.
Regular readers may imagine that I have ambivalent feelings about some of the issues raised in this letter.
Language
Not, however, about the language question. The Ohrid agreement is crystal clear on this subject. It requires that any language spoken by more than 20% of the population should be co-official with Macedonian.
I don’t see how you bring that obligation into question without creating more problems than North Macedonia already has. It was an important part of the 2001 peace settlement. Maintaining it is important.
Ethnic identification of government employees
The second issue concerns ethnic identification of government employees. Of course I prefer a system that is color blind and based on merit. But not specifying ethnic identification of government employees will not make government employment color blind. Names pretty much tell you who is Albanian and who is Macedonian. I suspect the intention of this proposition is to continue the current predominance of Macedonians in senior government positions.
Faking color blindness won’t work. Macedonia needs to diversify its public sector employees to more fully reflect the population’s diversity. I’m not a fan of quotas. But affirmative action with priority given to qualifications is a process that can yield reasonable results. Many Albanians have a qualification most Macedonians lack: they speak both languages. Government hiring should take that into account.
Fair representation in government
The third issue of fair representation is not fully specified. I imagine it refers to the positions given to ethnic Albanians in the current government. That is is more a political complaint than a juridical or constitutional one. One of the main Macedonian complaints about the previous government was the preponderance of Albanians in key positions. The winners of the last election sought to weaken the Albanian presence because they won the election.
DUI’s Albanian rivals negotiated the current coalition deal. If they did it badly, that is an issue for the next election. American and European diplomats can point that out to the Prime Minister, but it is not really an international issue.
Bottom lines
So my responses are
- Yes to Ali Ahmeti on the language issue,
- No to the government on the ethnic identification issue, and
- Let the voters decide on the fair representation issue.
But what difference does it make what I think? Fundamentally, these are issues that Macedonia’s citizens need to decide.
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All good, until it’s not, in Atlanta
I am now past my second week of outside poll watching in Atlanta (Fulton County). Minus three days off for a jaunt to Boston to give a talk at the Harvard Graduate School of Design. By my count, I’ve now spot-checked 21 of the 34 early voting centers in the county. I’ve been to a couple more than once.
No wait no mess
I’m delighted to report that I have continued to find nothing to complain about. The early voting centers are adequately staffed and equipped. I haven’t found more than a 15-minute line anywhere. All the polling center managers say they haven’t had a longer line since early voting started.
That’s despite the record numbers of people voting. More than half of the number of people who voted in Georgia in 2020 have already voted. Most people exiting report that voting took no more than 5 minutes. None have registered complaints with me.
The Georgia Democratic Party has been concerned that polling centers post notices citing the disqualification of two candidates. All the polling centers I’ve visited display the notices prominently, along with the ballot, both inside and outside.
Four of the polling centers have had individual police officers stationed discreetly outside. I saw no indication voters felt intimidated or inhibited from voting. None of the police officers reported any incidents.
It would be hard not to conclude that Fulton County knows what it is doing and has done it well.
A long way to go
Of course there is a long way ahead. Early voting continues through November 1. Vote review panels are starting this week. Those are the panels that decide on a voter’s intention if it is not clear on the ballot. They also supervise duplication of ballots that can’t be machine read. I’ll have my first opportunity to contribute to those processes Friday, in Hall County north of Atlanta.
I am expecting an assignment to poll watch inside a polling center, also in Hall County, for election day. I am also expecting for this week assignments to ballot count monitoring. That is likely to continue for a few days after November 5.
The controversies to come
The process so far looks good to me. But that of course doesn’t mean that there aren’t problems. And even if there aren’t problems, some people will want to invent some. No one should imagine that Donald Trump is going to take a loss in Georgia without protest. He no doubt has both his mouth and his lawyers ready to complain about fraud if he loses. If he wins, he’ll extol the process.
The people voting so far in Georgia are disproportionately women. This spells trouble for the Republicans, joy for the Democrats. But of course the percentage could be reversed this week or on election day. And you really can’t tell how people vote when you ask them how the process went. Nor are there enough lawn signs or other indicators to tell you anything meaningful.
The Georgia state election board is still resolving quite a few issues, some in court. That is due to a MAGA takeover, which has put election deniers in charge. They are still trying to change the process. That is outrageous while the voting is taking place and so close to Election Day. When the courts refuse their proposals, they will no doubt complain that the election wasn’t fair.
It’s all good, until it’s not.
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Four more bad reasons to vote Trump
I somehow managed yesterday in citing ten reasons to vote for Trump to skip an obvious one: immigration. It merited mention, not least because it a very bad reason to be voting for Trump.
We need the labor
The United States needs more immigrants, not fewer. The tight labor market is driving up wages and productivity. That is welcome after many years that they lagged the increase in returns to capital. Incomes have been rising faster than prices since the epidemic. But there are limits. The US fertility rate (average number of children per woman over a lifetime) is down to 1.6. This is insufficient to sustain a stable population size. The resulting aging of the population increases the demands on Social Security and Medicare while decreasing their revenue streams.
Immigration can help to alleviate these problems. Immigrants to the US are younger on average and have more children than people born in the US. They help to pay the bills of those reaching retirement age, also relieving labor market pressure.
We need the entrepreneurs and executives
Immigrants are also disproportionately entrepreneurs. They do not on the whole take jobs from native-born Americans but create jobs for everyone:
…immigrants act more as “job creators” than “job takers” and play outsized roles in US high-growth entrepreneurship.
This is important, as US economic growth depends heavily on new, small companies. And small companies grow. Immigrants founded nearly 45% of the Fortune 500.
It is of course also true that immigrants play important roles in managing major corporations. The tech sector is rife with immigrant executives. Eighty per cent of privately held billion dollar companies have immigrants in a senior role. The American economy today depends on immigrant managers.
Getting rid of them isn’t possible
The Obama and Biden Administrations focused deportation on people who posed security risks. The Trump Administration did not have clear priorities. Biden has removed (often by expulsion rather than deportation) many more immigrants than Trump did.
That doesn’t mean Trump isn’t going to try to do what he said he would do. He has pledged to round up and expel millions. Trump’s effort would cost many billions and involve hiring ten thousand new immigration officials.
Even beginning that process will unleash chaos in the American economy, further tighten the labor market. It will also discourage immigration that we need for the purposes cited above. Trump’s election will slam down an economy that is landing softly.
There is a bipartisan solution already drafted that Trump won’t support
Republicans and Democrats have already agreed to a bipartisan immigration bill. Trump blocked its approval in the Congress. But the new Congress can revive the plan and pass it. Harris has pledged to sign it.
If elected, Trump will need to insist on something “better.” He is unlikely to get it if the Democrats control one of the Houses. Only Harris guarantees that immigration will be dealt with quickly on a bipartisan basis in the new Congress.
I could go on. World population growth is also slowing markedly. There soon won’t be as many people wanting to immigrate anywhere than there once were. Trump’s anti-immigrant efforts will encourage people to go elsewhere. That will not be good for a country that depends heavily on immigrant labor, entrepreneurs, and executives. We’d be well-advised to forget Trump’s grandiose plans and grab the bipartisan solution.
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Ten reasons to vote for Trump, nine refuted
Meidas+ has saved me the trouble. It lists 200 reasons not to vote for Donald Trump. I suppose it wouldn’t be all that hard to get to 300. It is hard for me to understand why any patriotic American–or even a non-patriotic one–would vote him.
Ten reasons to vote for Trump
So let’s consider the options:
- You are a diehard Republican who has never voted for a Democrat.
- Trump will be better for the economy than Harris.
- Trump will keep the US out of war.
- You want the Federal government cut back.
- You want abortion restricted.
- LGBTQ and trans people are not your thing. Or you don’t want your children learning about such things in school.
- You don’t like what the Israelis are doing in Gaza and Lebanon.
- The US should stop supporting Ukraine and start getting friendly with Putin.
- The US should stand up to China.
- You don’t want a Black, Asian woman as President.
Even diehards are voting for Harris
Harris can’t please diehard Republicans on the policy issues, but they are voting for her anyway. Liz Cheney and her father are not alone. Many Republicans see that Trump is not planning to sustain American democracy but to dismantle it. His former White House chief of staff and his Chair of the Joint Chiefs have both labeled him an autocrat. Actually, they said “fascist.” You don’t have to be a never Trumper to vote against someone who does not accept election results unless he wins.
Pulling the Democratic lever is not all that hard. I pull Republican levers whenever I am unhappy with the Democratic candidate. You can do the right thing too.
It’s the economy, stupid
It is, and America’s economy is bigger and better than ever. The Economist calls it “the envy of the world.” Growth has recovered faster from the epidemic downturn than other developed economies. Manufacturing is up sharply. The Biden Administration has presided over the creation of a record number of jobs. The stock market has continued its rise.
The spoiler is inflation, which peaked in the first two years of the Biden Administration. Since then, it has been declining. It is now approaching the Fed’s 2% goal. No one is happy paying more for food and housing, but wages have more than kept up with inflation. Most people, on average, are not worse off.
Trump’s proposed tariffs will resuscitate inflation and tank growth. They do not need Congressional approval. Affected industries will challenge them in court, but in the meanwhile they will be collected. American consumers will pay for them. Other countries will retaliate. The tariffs spell disaster for the American and world economies.
War no more?
The Trump campaign claims to have suffered no terrorist attacks and kept the US out of war 2016/20. But that isn’t true. Trump ordered strikes in Syria and Iraq, killed Iran’s Qassem Suleimani, and presided during several terrorist attacks inside the US. He also rightly provided lethal assistance to Ukraine that the Obama Administration had denied.
Trump negotiated the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan but left too few soldiers to cover the evacuation of Afghans. He promised total withdrawal of US troops from Syria, but then he left some there.
Bloated government?
The Federal government grew more under Biden (6%) than under Trump (3.7%). But Trump claims now that he can fire many thousands of Federal employees and increase efficiency. He certainly didn’t prove that in 2016/20. The notion that Elon Musk will help him do it is laughable. Musk eviscerated Twitter and is still losing lots of money. Recovering rocket bodies and improving efficiency are not the same thing.
Trump’s intention is to fire civil servants and replace them with servile Trumpkins who do his will, despite the law. He has made no secret of this. Do you really want decades of experience to be replaced with loyalty to a 79-year-old fascist?
Abortion is the Republicans’ Achilles heel
I am not pro-abortion. I don’t know anyone who is. Nor do you need be if you vote for Harris. But banning abortion, as many Republican states have done, gives government responsibility for a decision that belongs with individual women.
Trump is right that the Supreme Court has sent the issue back to the states. There the Democrats are repeatedly winning the argument whenever it is posed in a referendum. Any Republican who wants to see her/his party in power should be wondering whether the issue is politically toxic.
Dislike of LGBTQ and trans people
You don’t want your kids to learn about these things? Guess what: you won’t be capable of stopping them. There is nothing new under the sun. The Ancient Greeks knew all about non-heterosexual preferences. Sure, you might “protect” your children for a few years. But sooner or later they will know what you know, and maybe more.
Anyway, decisions on what schools teach are mostly made at the local level. Keep it there. Why vote for a candidate who claims kids are getting operated on at school without parental consent? Is that the untruth you want your children learning?
Gaza and Lebanon: blank check for Netanyahu
I don’t like what the Israeli government is doing in Gaza and Lebanon either. This is something on which American Jews, American Arabs, Israeli Jews, Lebanese, and Palestinians all agree. At least two-thirds of all these groups want a ceasefire and exchange of hostages/prisoners in Gaza. That would bring with it a ceasefire on the Israel/Lebanon border.
Things will get much worse in the Middle East if Trump is elected. He gave the Israelis everything they asked for when he was President. He’ll do it again if re-elected. I’m not sure what Harris will do, but it won’t be a blank check.
Ukraine won’t be the end of it
Trump has made it clear he will give Putin whatever he wants in Ukraine. That, he thinks, will end the war. If that is what you want, please do vote Republican.
But it won’t end the war. Putin will go after whatever part of Ukraine he doesn’t get, and then Moldova. Poland and the Baltic states will be at risk. He won’t stop until he is stopped. Trump won’t do it. Harris will.
Xi cleaned Trump’s clock
The same is true for China. Trump doesn’t want to defend American allies in Asia. That’s why he has suggested Japan and South Korea get their own nuclear weapons. Why not Taiwan and Philippines as well? Do you really think the world would be better off with another four nuclear powers? America would be safer?
As for trade, Trump negotiated an agreement with China. Beijing did not implement it. The result has been massive agricultural subsidies to American farmers, to compensate them for lost markets due to Chinese retaliation. The Trump tariffs will bring more retaliation and more subsidies to injured industries.
You don’t want a Black, Asian, woman as President
I’m not going to quarrel with this one. If you don’t want a smart, well-educated Black and Asian woman as President, vote for the crude grifter and felon. You are the company you keep.
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It will end when Israel wants it to
Israel continues to enjoy military successes in both Gaza and Lebanon, but its adversaries fight on. The death of Yahya Sinwar leaves Hamas without clear leadership. The death of Hassan Nasallah likewise left Hezbollah without clear leadership. But both Islamist movements continue to attack. Their cadres seek “martyrdom.”
The options
Americans, official and unofficial, are urging Israel to take the win and embark on the day after. Israel has done enormous damage to both Hamas and Hezbollah. The Israel Defense Force has decimated, but not eliminated, their underground facilities, drones, rockets, and missiles, leadership, and personnel. Ending the fighting in Gaza as well as Lebanon would open the possibility of a prisoner/hostage swap in Gaza. It would also put pressure on the UN Security Council to move Hezbollah north of the Litani River. UNSC resolution 1701 requires that. It is the declared Israel war objective in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t buying. He wants to go after Iran, which is a state sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli retaliation for Iran’s massive military attack on October 1, which did little damage, is still pending. His Defense Minister has promised it will be “lethal” and “surprising.” But it has also been delayed. The Americans want the Israelis not to target Iran’s nuclear program or its oil production facilities. The former will trigger an Iranian decision to develop nuclear weapons. The latter would bump up world oil prices.
The politics
The wars in Gaza and Lebanon are not going to end before November 5. That would give Kamala Harris a big boost at the polls. Netanyahu doesn’t want that. He wants Donald Trump back in the White House. President Biden is threatening to withhold military assistance to Israel unless humanitarian assistance starts flowing again to Gaza. Trump would not do that. Judging from past experience, he would not seek to restrain Israel at all.
No matter whom the US elects, Netanyahu has his own political calculus. His only hope for remaining in power is a military victory so overwhelming Israelis will forget his faults. They include his personal malfeasance and his government’s failure on October 7. A dramatic blow to Iran would do the trick.
The civilians
In the meanwhile, civilians are suffering the brunt of war. The situation in Gaza is unprecedented. Virtually its entire population is displaced. Most of its housing stock, its educational and health systems, as well as its economy are destroyed. People are desperate. Some are starving. There is ample evidence the Israeli army has targeted civilians and children.
In Lebanon, the destruction is less extensive so far, but Netanyahu has threatened to make it like Gaza. The Israelis have obliterated some border communities. They have also hit Beirut, including areas that are not Hezbollah strongholds. Many Lebanese are displaced. Several thousand are dead.
How does this end?
Most Israelis want a ceasefire and prisoner/hostage exchange. Most American Jews and Arabs have wanted that too. But Netanyahu wants to continue to fight Hamas and Hezbollah. He would also like to hit Iran hard. President Biden will to try to restrain him. A President Harris would do likewise. Trump would not.
Netanyahu has repeatedly demonstrated that he does what he wants. The Middle East wars won’t end until the Israeli government wants them to. That isn’t going to happen while Netanyahu is in office.
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