Stevenson’s army, March 17

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 17, 2020 - 0 Comment

– A Trump NSC staffer on global health defends the way it was handled on the NSC

– An Obama official .rebuts Bolton on that matter.
– Politico says senior incoming officials had a pandemic wargame just before Trump’s inauguration. [They should have known, is the lesson.]
– The House finally sent its first coronavirus recovery bill to the Senate — by approving by unanimous consent [voice vote] a resolution telling the Clerk to make “technical corrections” in the text. Rep. Gohmert [R-Tex.], who had threatened to object, withdrew his objection.
– Politico notes limits to possible use of troops for domestic help against the pandemic.
– How to allow vote by mail by November elections.

– US forces in Iraq are being relocated to larger bases.

There was a late addition:

– The administration wants to send checks directly to Americans to help offset the economic effects of the coronavirus. I support that, but not that the Obama administration did the same in 2009 with virtually no GOP support.
– The National Intelligence Council in 2008 warned that America and the world would face pandemic threats in the 2020s.

– And the ever-valuable D Brief shows the Chinese response to Sen. Cotton’s fabricated claim that the Chinese developed the coronavirus as a weapon against the US.

Here’s a brief list of Chinese diplomats who are sharing a conspiracy theory on Twitter in what appears to be a coordinated campaign of disinformation — spreading a lie that the U.S. created the coronavirus in a military laboratory at Fort Detrick, Md.: 

  • Zhao Lijian, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman who seems to have initially tweeted this conspiracy last Thursday; his tweet was then shared by multiple diplomats and embassies, including—
  • Lin Songtian, Chinese ambassador to South Africa; 
  • Lijian Zhao, Ambassador to the Maldives; 
  • Zhao Yanbo, Ambassador to Botswana;
  • Quan Liu, Ambassador to Suriname; 
  • Chang Hua, Ambassador to Iran; 
  • Wang Xianfeng, press officer to the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan;
  • the Twitter account for China’s Embassy to France; 
  • China’s Embassy in Manila; 
  • Embassy in Jordan; 
  • Embassy in Chad; 
  • Embassy in Uganda; 
  • and the Twitter account for China’s Embassy in Cameroon. 

One takeaway from all the conspiracy sharing: It would sure seem that “more people inside the MFA [China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs] are seeing this kind of stuff as a good career move,” tweeted Matt Schrader, China analyst at the U.S.-based think tank, Alliance for Securing Democracy. 

Another POV: “Chinese party-state [is] taking a page out of Russia’s info ops playbook, using their Ambassadors’ @Twitter accounts for a coordinated disinfo operation,” tweeted Laura Rosenberger, who directs the Alliance for Securing Democracy. “The party-state is waging an info war using COVID-19, and using this moment to try new methods.”

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Dear Hashim,

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 17, 2020 - 10 Comments

Kosovo President Thaci responded to Shaun Byrnes’ post on peacefare.net from Saturday with these tweets:

Hashim Thaçi@HashimThaciRKS· Mar 13 Disappointed to see friends of Kosovo & mine @DanielSerwer & Byrnes being deceived by fake news. There is no secret deal or whatever btw Kosovo & Serbia. One can be achieved through a transparent process w/ US leadership & I invite u to help. @RichardGrenell is doing a great job

Hashim Thaçi@HashimThaciRKS·Mar 13 Washington has full attention on Kosovo-Serbia dialogue. It is the burden of our generation to end the conflict & open path for Euro-Atlantic integration & economic prosperity. We need support for this process, not obstacles, nor opposition. It’s about our children.

This is my response to the President, whom I have known since his first, post-war visit to the US in 1999:

Dear Hashim,

I’m entirely sympathetic to the Euro-Atlantic ambitions of Kosovo and have repeatedly lent my efforts to that cause. But it is not wise to believe that Washington pays “full attention” to the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, which has been an entirely opaque process. Few in Washington even know it is happening, and fewer care. This inattention has given Belgrade-hired lobbyists the opportunity to influence an Administration that cares little about the Balkans and not at all about Kosovo, which it regards as a product of the despised Clinton Administration.

Worse than American inattention and pro-Serb bias is that the people of Kosovo and Serbia know nothing about what is being discussed in your repeated meetings with President Vucic. Your citizens have been demanding transparency. I have asked more than once for an update. Nothing is forthcoming. That leaves you open to rumors, which aren’t necessarily accurate. Only the transparency you promise can fix that problem.

Richard Grenell is a man who has failed as Ambassador to Germany and is failing as a temporary Director of National Intelligence. He is however doing a great snow job in the Balkans, flaunting minor transportation agreements as big steps forward. He is also working hard to pressure Prime Minister Kurti with threats of withdrawing US troops and aid. Albin has bent but not yet broken to the US demand that he end the tariffs on Serbian goods. Grenell’s ultimate objective is the land/people swap the Trump Administration has been pushing and you have indicated you might accept. A majority of your population, including the Serbs south of the Ibar, are opposed to this ignoble idea, which would make Kosovo a source of instability throughout the Balkans and beyond.

You can of course prove me wrong in thinking you are ready to trade slices of Serb-populated Kosovo for slices of Albanian-populated Serbia: give the Kosovo parliament a full and honest account of the talks with Vucic. This should include the agendas, any drafts or proposals from either side, and a full transcript of the dialogue at the highest level and in any working groups. Then turn over responsibility for the dialogue to the government, as the Constitutional Court decided is correct and the parliament has now confirmed. Making Albin the lead will take the heat off you and put the Serbs in a difficult position, since their prime minister–a protégé of the president–cannot pretend to have the kind of popular mandate Albin has.

You are no doubt disappointed in the results election that brought Albin to power, as they left your party in third place. But working with the second place finishers to bring down the Prime Minister will do Kosovo no good at all. It risks igniting a storm that will end any prospect of suspending the tariffs or moving ahead even incrementally with the dialogue with Serbia.

To a Kosovo patriot, and I hope I am right in assuming you would like to be considered one, speed should not be the priority. There is no advantage in pursuing an agreement before Serbia’s April 26 election. President Vucic will be freer to make concessions to Kosovo after the election than before. Kosovo would be wise to wait even longer: until after the Americans go to the polls November 3.

If there is then a President Biden–a true friend of Kosovo–you can expect him to empower a serious envoy to collaborate with Europe, something Grenell can never do because had and President Trump loathe the European Union, in reaching serious agreements between Kosovo and Serbia. Joint US/EU action is a prerequisite for bringing irresistible pressure to bear on Belgrade. Grenell isn’t even trying. If Trump is re-elected, whoever is in power in Kosovo will have to hunker down again to shield your country from the onslaught of bad partition ideas the likes of Grenell will continue to generate.

Most of your citizens want a deal with Serbia that recognizes the Kosovo state as sovereign and independent within its current borders and enables it to enter the United Nations. That isn’t on offer yet. Kosovo needs to be ready to walk away from a bad deal in order to get a good one, in the right time and with the help of both the US and EU. Until then, incremental improvements are all that can be hoped for. Successful statecraft requires that you encourage your citizens to be patient. Good things come to those who can wait.

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Stevenson’s army, March 16

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 16, 2020 - 0 Comment

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Peace Picks| March 16-22

Posted in Yuanyi Liu - March 15, 2020 - 0 Comment

Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, most of the upcoming events are cancelled or postponed, except a few that will only be available via live-streaming.

Virtual Event—How to deter Russian aggression in an election year: Legislative options| March 16, 2020 | 12:30 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Please join the Atlantic Council via Zoom on March 16th at 12:30 p.m. for a timely event on how to deter Russian interference in the upcoming US presidential elections.

The head of the Atlantic Council’s Economic Sanctions Initiative, Ambassador Daniel Fried, will present a paper that assesses Congress’ options, in particular the DASKA and DETER sanctions bills, to dissuade Russian aggression in an election year.

Our speakers will evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed legislative options, outline current risks, and discuss potential challenges for the private sector in implementing additional Russia sanctions. The event will now be completely virtual, please register for the conversation here. Your understanding and cooperation is greatly appreciated.

Speakers:

Richard Sawaya: Vice President, USA Engage, National Foreign Trade Council

Cari N. Stinebower: Partner, Winston & Strawn LLP

Graham Brookie: Director and Managing Editor, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council

Ambassador Daniel Fried: Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council

——————————————————————————————————————–

Live Stream Event: Strategic National Security Space: FY 2021 Budget and Policy Forum | March 17, 2020 | 9:15 AM – 12:15 PM | CSIS | Register Here

Please join the CSIS Aerospace Security Project and Defense Budget Analysis Program on Tuesday, March 17, for the webcast “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2021 Budget and Policy Forum.” This year’s event will address the dynamic national security space landscape including the release of the Trump administration’s Fiscal Year 2021 budget, the standup of the United States Space Force and reorganization of national security space, and the evolving threat environment.

Speakers:

Mr. Stephen Kitay: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy

Major General Clint Crosier: Director, Space Force Planning, Office of the Chief of Space Operations, U.S. Space Force

Dr. Derek Tournear: Director, Space Development Agency

Dr. Morgan Dwyer: Deputy Director for Policy Analysis, CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group

Todd Harrison: Director, CSIS Aerospace Security; Director, CSIS Defense Budget Analysis Program

Mike Tierney: Velos

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Stevenson’s army, March 15

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 15, 2020 - 0 Comment
  • The woman who headed the NSC office for Global Health Security disbanded in 2018 explains what it did and could do.
  • The Post has a further report on disarray and infighting in the WH: The administration’s struggle to mitigate the coronavirus outbreak has been marked by infighting and blame-shifting, misinformation and missteps, and a slow recognition of the danger. Warring factions have wrestled for control internally and for approval from a president who has been preoccupied with the beating his image is taking.The scramble for solutions is occurring in an overriding atmosphere of trepidation of saying something that Trump might perceive as disloyal and of fear that their fumbles could cost the president his reelection in November. The task force meetings often last about 2 ½ hours. At best, they have been forums to suggest and debate a broad range of ideas, from disease mitigation to public communications. At worst, they have been dens of discord, with officials with varying portfolios feuding over policy or even simply power and position. The mood has turned especially tense over frustrations with testing delays.“People just show up in the Oval and spout off ideas,” said a former senior administration official briefed on the coronavirus discussions. “He’ll either shoot down ideas or embrace ideas quickly. It’s an ad hoc free-for-all with different advisers just spitballing.”
  • History lesson: the New Yorker has posted a 1997 article by Malcolm Gladwell  telling the story of the 1918 Spanish flu.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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A bad deal 2

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 13, 2020 - 3 Comments

I’ve already said I think the rumored deal between Belgrade and Pristina is a bad one. Some discussion of why is in order. I hasten to warn however that I have not seen the text and will have to rely on yesterday’s post from Shaun Byrnes for what it contains. I’m tired of waiting for something more definitive. If you want me to rely on the actual text of the proposed agreement, please send it to me. Absent that, here are a few points:

  1. Land/people swap: Admittedly I don’t know the geography, but any movement of boundaries or borders on an ethnic basis will open Pandora’s box. Milorad Dodik has made this perfectly clear in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where he intends to pursue partition if there is a swap between Kosovo and Serbia. He is being quiet about that for the moment to please Belgrade, but that is a purely tactical move. He is serious about pursuing independence for Republika Srpska if a swap happens anywhere in the Balkans. Principles matter.
  2. Non-recognition by Belgrade: The agreement reportedly does not include Serbia’s recognition of a sovereign and independent Kosovo, but merely a promise by Serbia no longer to stand in the way of UN membership. Accepting this would be incredibly stupid for Pristina. It is Russia, not Serbia, that ultimately blocks UN membership and will continue to do so until there is an agreement with the US to permit it. Kosovo must have not only Serbian recognition but also exchange of diplomatic representatives at the ambassadorial level and agreement to demarcate the border. Until all that happens, no Kosovo citizen should be prepared to accept a deal, much less a president responsible for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of his country.
  3. An Association of Serb Municipalities with undefined responsibilities. The association idea was a bad one when it was introduced in the 2013 Brussels-negotiated “political” agreement. Now that it is clear Serbia would use such an association to try to govern the Serb-majority municipalities from Belgrade and to block effective sovereignty from being exercised in Pristina, it is much worse. The Kosovo Constitutional Court has issued a decision that prescribes in detail what kind of association would be consistent with the constitution. Pristina should concede nothing more, and nothing indefinite.

As a prelude to this repulsive agreement, Washington is openly pressuring Prime Minister Kurti to unilaterally abolish the tariffs his predecessor imposed on Serbian (and Bosnian) goods. Influenced by Serbian-hired lobbyists, the Trump Administration has even threatened to withdraw both its peacekeepers and its assistance package from Kosovo. President Thaci is trying to cause Kurti’s government, which depends on support from people who oppose the tariffs, to fall. Kurti is trying to compromise by suspending some of the tariffs this weekend, but this hasn’t satisfied either Washington or his President. Vucic really doesn’t care: the tariffs make it easy for him to blame Pristina for stalling the agreement.

There is no good reason to rush to an agreement before the Serbian elections in April, or even soon thereafter. All of Pristina thinks Thaci is rushing to try to forestall an indictment by the Special Tribunal in The Hague, whose prosecutor is a Trump-appointed American. Vucic has made it clear he will not do a deal under pressure before he gets a renewed mandate. Richard Grenell–US Ambassador to Germany, acting but temporary Director of National Intelligence, and Special Envoy for peace negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo–is trying to deliver a diplomatic triumph to help President Trump’s re-election campaign and get himself a better job, even though he is unqualified for all the jobs he already has.

For America’s successful 1990s interventions in the Balkans in favor of liberal democracy to end in this mess would be shameful, but that is precisely what the ethno-nationalist Trump Administration wants. It views Kosovo and Bosnia as Clinton triumphs, which makes them second only to Obama successes in arousing the President’s jealousy and loathing. Shameful is not something he avoids.

There is an American election in less than eight months. Anyone who wants things to come out right in the Balkans should be prepared to await its outcome.

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