Stevenson’s army, February 21
SecState Pompeo announces start of violence reduction week leading to a Taliban deal.
WSJ reports more cooperation on Iran sanctions.
Both NYT and WaPo report DNI was fired after Trump learned his office had told House Intelligence Committee that Russia is already interfering in US 2020 elections in support of Trump.
Big study of nonvoters shows they mirror the voting population.
Lawfare says secret international agreements are still not being reported as required by law.
In further proof of my argument that some people die only in the Times, which reports deaths of interesting people, here’s the story about the man who invented computer cutting and pasting.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A non-election
Iran’s majles (parliament) elections are tomorrow. They are not free or fair, despite the extraordinary number of candidates, since the Guardian Council gets to determine who runs. It has nixed something like 60% of the candidates, most of them relative moderates or reformists. Even those prevented from running are people loyal to the Islamic Republic. None are revolutionaries, only reformers. Serious opponents of the regime are more likely to be found in the streets and in their own homes.
The outcome of the election is pre-determined: unlike 2016, conservatives will be in the majority. Supreme Leader Khamenei has been anxious to avoid another de facto vote against him, so he has stacked the deck. Any presence of reformers in the new majles will be a defeat for him. Turnout will be more interesting to watch than results. It can be hard to fake. It was around 60% the last time around. If it comes in under 50% or so, it should be interpreted as a vote of no-confidence.
It would be a mistake however to conclude even then that the regime is necessarily about to crumble, collapse, or crack. There is no sign of dissent in the security forces, who have been amply deployed to clamp down on any election-day disturbances. Protests have adopted anti-regime slogans, but they remain mostly focused on economic issues, made severe in part by US re-imposition of sanctions.
That and the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have hardened the regime significantly. The conservatives who argued that the US couldn’t be trusted to implement the nuclear deal have been proven correct. Khamenei has tried to rally Iranians around a flag of resistance. The US assassination of Qasem Soleimani has made that easier. There has been no serious difficulty restricting the candidates. The Supreme Leader will emerge from these elections with a far more compliant and conservative majles, and good prospects for conservatives in next year’s presidential election. For details on the personalities and geography involved, see this primer.
It is beyond me how this hardening of the Iranian regime serves US interests. It incentivizes Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, for which financing will always be available. Even a collapse of the regime would pose enormous difficulties for Washington, as Iran is a multiethnic state whose Kurds, Arabs, Azeris, Balochis and others would likely seek at least the self-governance they have been denied in the Islamic Republic, if not outright independence or union with neighboring states. Iran is a country of more than 80 million people. The results could be catastrophic.
It’s a non-election, but there should be no joy in that.
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Stevenson’s army, February 20
– More details on John Rood’s firing. NYT links it to policy disagreements with the WH; FP says he had a toxic work environment and many staff left.
– Amb. to Germany Richard Grenell has been named acting DNI. His major qualification for the job is fierce public loyalty to the president. He can only serve until mid-September, and would have to step down immediately if formally nominated for the job [as SecDef Esper had to do].
This lets me remind you of two of the most consequential but little known laws — the Vacancy Act and the Administrative Procedures Act. The former limits the use of non-Senate confirmed officials and people in “acting” positions. The latter prevents replacement of older executive orders and regulations without a lengthy and detailed process. The new team can’t just say, we want to change.
-Georgetown had a special event featuring former Amb. to Ukraine Yavonovitch.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bottom of the barrel
Richard Grenell, Ambassador to Germany and impresario of the recent Belgrade/Pristina agreements that are expected to open air and train service between the two cities, is pulling up stakes. He is headed back to Washington to be Director of National Intelligence, the leader if not the boss of 17 US intelligence agencies with a budget of $50 billion. He will also be the principal intelligence advisor to the President.
This is extraordinary. A gay Evangelical and white nationalist, he is a “communications” (i.e. PR) guy with no intelligence experience who has accumulated a dismal record for offending Berlin. The ink on his Pristina/Belgrade agreements isn’t even dry. I won’t be surprised if they evaporate before effective implementation. Grenell pushed himself into the Balkans not to fix anything but rather in a blatant effort to catch the President’s eye by delivering some sort of international triumph. As soon as he had even a glint of that, off he goes to bigger and better things.
A lot bigger and better. President Trump has been unhappy with the intelligence community because it concluded that Russia interfered with the 2016 election and will do it again if not stopped. Trump has also been anxious to get evidence of Ukrainian interference in the election and dirt on former Vice President Biden and his son from Ukraine, efforts that resulted in impeachment. Had the intelligence community delivered what he wanted in Ukraine, Trump would not have needed Rudy Giuliani’s help.
The DNI job has been in “acting” hands since August. It is being reported that Grenell will also be acting. That avoids Senate confirmation, which could be difficult for Grenell. He was confirmed as Ambassador to Germany by a dismal vote of only 56-42. Acting status also gives the President stronger leverage over appointees. We can expect Grenell to toady 100% to Trump’s whims, helping him to parry intelligence community judgments that differ from the President’s predilections. This appointment–like Barr at Justice, Pompeo at State, and O’Brien at the National Security Council–is intended to solidify political control over key government agencies and ensure that they toe Trump’s erratic lines, no matter how far they stray from reality.
I suppose there have been more harmful appointments in this Administration, but this one is destined to be high on that scale. Grenell is a spinmeister, not a truth teller. The intelligence community will find itself in not only incompetent but ill-meaning hands. This would be the bottom of the barrel, if the barrel had a bottom.
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Stevenson’s army, February 19
– Background on Trump visit to India.
– CNN says USD/P Rood is being forced out.
-IG finds waste in US support for Syrian forces.
– Congress debates Libya policy.
– A smart idea for how to prepare for future war better.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Normalizing impunity
President Trump has launched an all-out assault on judicial independence. In just the last few days, he has publicly attacked the prosecutors and judge in the case against his friend Roger Stone, tweeted his own control over the judicial system, and pardoned a few mostly white white collar criminals. Attorney General Barr has also reportedly intervened to end several investigations related to the President, including one focused on the President’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani.
Empathy is not the President’s strong point. He is not doing this because he thinks the people involved are innocent or even unjustly accused and convicted, though that is what he asserts. This is an attack on the justice system intended to normalize impunity, especially for the kinds of crimes his own coterie and he himself commit. Anyone who still thinks he won’t pardon Roger Stone and former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn is closing their eyes to the obvious: Trump is preparing the ground for those pardons and likely also one for himself, issued just before leaving office. He is also warning prosecutors that they should not bother with new cases against him or his friends.
His adversaries are another matter. Former Vice President Joe Biden is still in the crosshairs, despite his dramatic decline in the polls. Bernie Sanders is leading and will no doubt soon be the subject of Senate or Justice Department investigations, as will the fast rising former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Whoever rises to the top in the campaign for the Democratic nomination can expect the same treatment. Impunity for the President and his friends will be temporary if Trump loses in November.
Two thousand former Justice Department employees have signed on to a letter protesting what is going on and calling for the Attorney General’s resignation. There are rumors of rebellion among current employees in the Justice Department, and Federal judges are holding an emergency meeting to discuss the situation. But I doubt much will result. Trump is extremely sensitive to criticism, but his response to it is to attack his critics. Barr’s only achievement at the Justice Department is protecting the President, and his only complaint has been that the President’s tweets make that harder to do. Neither of these men can be expected to back down. Both will redouble their efforts.
There is not much that can be done about this. The pardon power is unlimited. The Justice Department’s supposed independence in criminal matters is more traditional than statutory. The courts are independent, but respect for their decisions and independence is not obligatory. A president can say pretty much what he wants about judges, prosecutors, indictees, and jury forepeople. Past presidents have generally avoided saying anything or getting themselves involved in individual cases. This one thinks he can get away with it.
The one avenue open to prosecutors that the president doesn’t control is the states. Their prosecutors and courts can pursue criminals without seeking or getting permission from the Federal government, except in cases where the Feds claim doing so could endanger their own investigations. That claim has been asserted in cases against some of Trump’s pals. I trust state prosecutors will not easily yield in the future, as it is clear enough that those assertions in this Administration are intended to protect criminality, not pursue it.
The world is watching this extraordinary attack on the rule of law. No American diplomat will be able to recite her talking points about corruption and abuse of power without a quiet giggle, and occasionally a big guffaw, from whoever she is trying to convince to pursue white collar criminals. The example America sets is vital to its diplomatic standing. President Trump’s normalization of impunity will be copied in many countries around the world. Putin, Duterte, Netanyahu, Orban and other would-be autocrats will be admiring the gall.
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