Peace Picks | March 9 – 13
A Conversation on National Security with General Petraeus | March 9, 2020 | 2:00PM – 3:00 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
More than 18 years after the 9/11 attacks, the United States has shifted its focus to competition with near-peer great competitors while still deterring rogue states like Iran and North Korea. During the latter years of President Obama’s administration and the early years of President Trump’s — through the 2018 National Defense Strategy, in particular — the U.S. has placed China’s ascendance at the heart of national security policymaking. But ongoing challenges with Russia, Afghanistan, the broader Middle East, and the Korean peninsula will continue to demand U.S. attention and resources.
General David Petraeus — former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), commander of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, and commander of multinational forces in Iraq during the President George W. Bush-era surge — is a distinguished practitioner and analyst of national security. On March 9, he will join Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon in a wide-ranging conversation on the international security environment, the state of the armed forces, and the emerging threats facing the United States.
Africa Symposium 2020: Advancing Africa’s Governance, Peace, and Security | March 11, 2020 | 8:00 AM – 5:00 PM | Wilson Center | Register Here
Please join the Institute for Defense Analyses and the Wilson Center Africa Program on Wednesday, March 11 for the Africa Symposium 2020, “Advancing Africa’s Governance, Peace, and Security.” Access and download the full program agenda below.
In 2020 Africa embarks on its fourth decade of political and economic liberalization. Over the last 30 years, many nations of the continent have moved beyond reliance on military governments and controlled economies. Many have moved into the middle-income category, established norms for elections and political stability, and created institutions to manage conflicts.
But, with 54 countries, Africa’s progress is uneven. Africa embarks on the next decade with uncertainty over the democratic dividend and new challenges to peace and security. At the same time, there are new internal and international stakeholders that test the status quo and demand a share of Africa’s future. Each of these factors has implications for the U.S. government’s engagement with Africa and its strategic interests on the continent. Africa Symposium 2020 will reflect on the democratic dividend; Africa’s conflict management mechanisms; important stakeholders, such as women and youth; and Africa’s evolving international relations.
Speakers
Keynote Speaker: Major General Christopher E. Craige, U.S. Africa Command
Whitney Baird, Deputy Assistant Secretary for West Africa and Security Affairs, Bureau of African Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Pete Marocco, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Department of Defense
Lina Benabdallah, Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University
Jaimie Bleck, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Judd Devermont, Africa Program Director, Center for Strategic and Internatioonal Studies
E. Gyimah-Boadi, Co-founder and Executive Director, Afrobarometer
Sandra Pepera, Director, Gender, Women and Democracy, National Democratic Institute
Marc Sommers, Former Fellow, Independent Consultant,
Paul D. Williams, Global Fellow, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University
General Norton Schwartz, President and CEO, Institute for Defense Analyses
Monde Muyangwam, Africa Program Director
Magdalena Bajll, National Intelligence Manager for Africa
The Way Forward in Syria: Idlib, US Policy, and the Constitutional Process | March 11, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 1:00 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
The Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies (HCCS), the Syrian American Council (SAC), and Arab Center Washington DC (ACW) will convene a conference in Washington DC exploring the way forward in Syria. The conference will focus on updates on Idlib, the developing humanitarian and refugee crises, Turkey’s involvement, and US policy toward Syria.
9:00 AM: Keynote Address: Challenges for US Policy in Syria
Khalil E. Jahshan, Executive Directorm Arab Center Washington DC
Zaki Lababidi, President, Syrian American Council
Keynote Speaker, Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, US Special Representative for Syria Engagement and the Global Coalition
10:00 AM: The continuing Humanitarian Crisis and US Policy in Syria
Wa’el Alzayat, CEO, Emgage Foundation
Wendy Pearlman, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northwestern University
Zaher Sahloul, President of MedGlobal
Valerie Szybala, Independent Consultant and Former Executive Director of The Syrian Institute
Yaser Tabbara, Strategic and Legal Advisor and Co-Founder, the Syrian Forum
Marwa Daoudy (Chair), Assistant Professor, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies in the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
12:00 PM: Keynote Luncheon: US Policy Response to The Humanitarian Crisis in Syria
A Conversation with the United States National Security Advisor | March 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The world is awash in security challenges. China’s rapid militarization; Russia’s attempts to intimidate NATO, at large, and the Baltic States, in particular, and its propping-up the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria; Iran’s consistent support to terrorist groups across the Middle East, sustained development of missile technologies now able to reach Europe, and use of nuclear blackmail to force Europe’s hand in supporting its nuclear ambitions; Nicolas Maduro’s death grip on Venezuela that threatens the complete collapse of the country and the spillover of instability into neighboring states in South and Central America; large swathes of Africa beset by violent Islamist radical groups…the list is long. The role of the President’s National Security Advisor, in part, is to coordinate the activities of the vast array of agencies that support understanding and responding to such a world. Leading the work of the National Security Council, and serving as the ‘honest broker’ for intelligence estimates and policy recommendations to the President, Robert O’Brien, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, must determine how best to ensure all relevant offices across the Executive Branch support the President’s efforts to ensure America’s security interests are addressed.
Please join us for a discussion with Robert O’Brien, a rare public opportunity to hear directly from him about his current work to streamline the National Security Council, make information coming to the President more focused and relevant, and the implementation of security decisions more timely and effective.
Speakers
Kim R. Holmes, Executive Vice President
Robert C. O’Brien, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs
Global Trends in the Rule of Law | March 11, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
As we enter a new decade, troubling developments around the rule of law continue to raise concerns for the future of fair and functioning societies. Since 2009, the World Justice Project (WJP) has documented these trends in its annual WJP Rule of Law Index, now covering 128 countries and jurisdictions in the new 2020 edition. Based on more than 130,000 household surveys and 4,000 legal practitioner and expert surveys worldwide,the 2020 Index provides citizens, governments, donors, businesses, and civil society organizations around the world with a comprehensive comparative analysis of countries’ adherence to universal rule of law principles.
Join USIP and the World Justice Project (WJP) as we delve into the findings from the WJP Rule of Law Index 2020. WJP’s chief research officer will review important insights and data trends from the report. This will be followed by a panel discussion on the underlying factors behind the results, as well as the policy implications for those invested in strengthening the rule of law.
Speakers
David Yang, Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation,
U.S. Institute of Peace
William Hubbard, Chairman of the Board of Directors, World Justice
Project
Sanjay Pradhan, keynote, Chief Executive Officer, Open Government Partnership
Alejandro Ponce, report presentation, Chief Research Officer, World Justice Project
Elizabeth Andersen, Executive Director, World Justice Project
Maria Stephan, Director of Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Margaret Lewis, Professor of Law, Seton Hall University
Philippe Leroux-Martin, moderator, Director for Governance, Justice and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
U.S.- China Relations and Global Impact | March 12, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Speakers
Louisa Greve, Director of Global Advocacy, Uyghur Human Rights Projects
Robert Ross, Professor of Political Science, Boston College Associate. John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University
Sophie Richardson, China Director, Human Rights Watch
Robert Spalding, U.S. Air Force Brig. General (ret.)
Information, the internet, and democracy: Transatlantic challenges – European responses | March 12, 2020 | 3:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council welcomes H.E. Věra Jourová, European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency, for a town hall conversation on “Information, the Internet, and Democracy: Transatlantic Challenges – European Responses.”
As the European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency, Commissioner Jourová is responsible for ensuring that the European Union and its member states adhere to its Charter of Fundamental Rights, including in the online space. She plays a lead role in preparing the EU’s Democracy Action Plan and is also key in EU discussions about online content, privacy, and rule of law. Vice President Jourová provides opening remarks focused on some of the key challenges from rapidly evolving technology and what they could mean for citizens and for democratic processes and institutions across the Atlantic. She looks forward to a conversation with the audience about the EU’s plans to address these challenges.
Army Air and Missile Defense | March 13, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:45 am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Air and missile defense is one of the U.S. Army’s six modernization priorities. Major General Robert Rasch and Brigadier General Brian Gibson join CSIS to discuss what the Army has accomplished in this field, its priorities, and expected future developments. Following, a panel of experts will also discuss AMD developments and offense-defense integration.
Event Schedule
9:30-10:30: Conversation with Major General Robert Rasch, Army PEO for Missiles and Space, Brigadier General Brian Gibson, Director, Army Air and Missile Defense Cross-Functional Team, and Dr. Thomas Karako, Director, CSIS Missile Defense Project.
10:30-10:45: Coffee break
10:45-11:45: Panel discussion featuring Brian Green, Senior Associate (Non-resident), CSIS International Security Program, Barbara Treharne, Senior Analyst, Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense Organization (JIAMDO), and RADM Arch Macy (USN, ret.), JIAMDO Director, 2008-2011.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 7
The Saudi crown prince has arrested his chief rivals and charged them with treason.
Pres. Trump has named Cong. Mark Meadows as his new chief of staff. [Not “acting”]
Coronavirus blame game: countries are blaming their rivals for the epidemic.
WaPo says CIA & NSA clashed over the purchased of a Swiss crypto machine company.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Botched
The Trump Administration reaction to the corona virus outbreak is a classic case of government failure. The President has downplayed the risks from the first, hoping to limit damage to stock markets and the economy in the run-up to his re-election campaign. He is claiming anyone can get tested, which isn’t even close to being true. The number of test kits available at the end of the week was just 75,000, after the Vice President had promised one million.
Part of the problem lies at the Centers for Disease Control, which at the start of this debacle shipped test kits that did not work properly while barring others from providing them. No wonder its leadership tries to look on benevolently as the President lies blatantly:
The chronicle of the inconsistencies in US government messaging is getting biblical. No one should be surprised. It is hard to keep a straight story when you are not telling the truth. That is the trick to many police interrogations: get the suspect to contradict himself, then hammer away at the contradiction. Real infectious disease experts will stand up to that sort of interrogation. President Trump and Vice President Pence will not, because they have a tale to tell that aims at political results, not scientific ones. That’s why they’ve channeled all questioning to the White House.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty about Covid-19: when during the course of the disease is it contagious? can you be reinfected? how lethal is it? what is the best protection for the older people who are succumbing in higher percentages? will the virus attenuate as spring rolls around? But some things are already clear: stay off cruise boats and out of nursing homes. Our friend Toby Edelman had this to say yesterday on NPR about the latter:
The other advice we are getting also makes sense: wash your hands, don’t touch your face, self-quarantine if in doubt, avoid contact with people who are ill. But really we haven’t got much idea how much of this will work. It’s just common sense for any infectious disease.
What we do know is that Trump and his administration have botched their first real crisis. Unable to tell the truth, unable to fix things that go wrong, unable to listen to sound advice, they have instead politicized an epidemic and made it much worse than it might have been.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Asymmetric warfare and the great powers
I spoke last night at the Alexander Hamilton Society at Johns Hopkins’ Homewood campus. Here is what I said:
I have two points to make: the first concerns proxy forces, which are becoming the rule rather than the exception; the second concerns asymmetric or hybrid warfare, which is taking on new guises. But none of it is really new—warriors have always sought to strike an enemy where he is weak and to remove their own forces from danger.
Increased use of proxy military forces to enable great powers to duel with each other without engaging directly with their own military forces is already happening in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Ukraine. Iranian-trained and equipped militias, Turkey’s Turkoman and Islamist allies, America’s Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Lebanese Hizbollah, the Houthis, Haftar’s forces, and Russia’s mercenaries and Ukrainian proxies are playing central roles in contests that the U.S. or its Gulf allies are engaged in, mostly as adversaries against Russia or Iran.
In an era of great power competition, the inclination will be not to worry too much about our own proxies’ internal governance or abuse of human rights any more than we did during the Cold War. Realists and would-be autocrats will see that as idealistic claptrap. But governance matters to some of us. Let me remind you of what Alexander Hamilton said, in a strikingly different context, in the Federalist Papers:
Vigor of government is essential to the security of liberty.
It is hard to support Ukraine to win a military confrontation with Russia if Ukraine is a kleptocracy, which is why it was right for Joe Biden to back firing of a corrupt prosecutor and wrong for the Trump Administration to regret his firing, while still claiming to be against corruption. It is also hard to support UAE and Saudi forces that have committed crimes of war in Yemen, or switch to support Khalifa Haftar in Libya or Bashar al Assad in Syria. Domestic and international support for odious allies is difficult to muster. One of the reasons the Americans have backed the Syrian Democratic Forces is the Kurds’ relatively decent governance, but of course we ignore their PKK credentials and the PKK’s terrorist acts inside Turkey.
Let me turn to asymmetric warfare. Adversaries have agency. Asymmetric warfare is the product of their ingenuity. America is hard to fight on land or sea. Since the purpose of warfare is political, better to fight it where expensive armor and submarines count for less: among the people.
War amongst the people is taking on new meaning with the rise of geopolitical challengers. In Bosnia and Kosovo, we saw the use of human shields, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. We are now seeing the weaponizing of masses of people on a giant scale: Assad’s effort to drive one million IDPs from Idlib to the Turkish border and beyond with Russian backing is intended to rid his territory of people he thinks are opponents and break Turkey’s will in occupying parts of Syria. Human shields have become human spears. Turkey is using people as well, though in a less deadly way: by allowing refugees to cross into Greece, it is pressuring the Europe Union for more humanitarian assistance.
The Russian satellite states South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia as well as Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine likewise aim at political results: to make the parent states ungovernable and block their progress towards the West.
Hybrid warfare using other means other than population movements and puppet states is also on the rise. In the Balkans, the Russians are aiming at destabilization without spending much. They’ve tried assassination, cyberattacks, mass mobilization, illicit political financing, and social media. The U.S. is not above using all those tools as well. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Stuxnet, the color revolutions, financing of NGOs and political training, and the State Department’s more than 120 acknowledged Twitter accounts (not to mention the covert ones) may look to you and me like good causes, but they look like potent weapons to America’s adversaries.
We may not be headed into a Cold War with any single adversary, but we are certainly heading towards a geopolitical competition that will entail use of all the means available in an environment of shifting alliances and uncertain outcomes.
But in the end, it may not be state adversaries that bring us down via proxies, weaponizing people, and hybrid warfare. Something much smaller may put on display our own inadequate government services. It shouldn’t escape notice that Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei, and Donald Trump are all at risk from the political and economic consequences of a virus. Defending populations from epidemics is not a new governance requirement, but rather a longstanding one. This, too, is war amongst the people, who might just demand some minimal competence and truthfulness in their governance.
Remember, again, Hamilton:
Vigor of government is essential to the security of liberty.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Only military means
As the humanitarian crisis in Idlib seems to me that biggest on earth right now (a million or more civilians displaced and under constant attack in a war zone), I reproduce below the Turkish/Russian ceasefire agreement, provided by Bassam Barabandi.
What is striking here is how mendacious the preamble is. While the ceasefire and security corridor established by this agreement are highly desirable, virtually every word of the preamble is false or based on false premises. Bashar al Assad is intent on chasing people out of Idlib because he can’t control the province so long as they remain. While this agreement may hold briefly, there is every reason to believe he will renew the assault and that the Russians and Iranians will support him every inch of the way up to the Turkish border, no matter the humanitarian consequences, unless stopped from doing so by military means.
Additional Protocol to the Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the Idlib De-Escalation Area
The Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation, as guarantors of the observance of the ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic (hereinafter referred to as the Parties),
Recalling the Memorandum on the Creation of De‑Escalation Areas in the Syrian Arab Republic as of May 4, 2017 and Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the Idlib De-Escalation Area as of September 17, 2018.
Reaffirming their strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Reaffirming their determination to combat all forms of terrorism, and to eliminate all terrorist groups in Syria as designated by the UNSC, while agreeing that targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure cannot be justified under any pretext,
Highlighting that there can be no military solution to the Syrian conflict and that it can only be resolved through Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, UN facilitated political process in line with the UNSCR 2254,
Stressing the importance of prevention of further deterioration of humanitarian situation, protection of civilians and ensuring humanitarian assistance to all Syrians in need without preconditions and discrimination as well as prevention of displacement of people and facilitation of safe and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their original places of residence in Syria;
Have agreed as follows,
1- Cease all military actions along the line of contact in the Idlib de-escalation area starting from 00:01 of March 6, 2020.
2- A security corridor will be established 6 km deep to the north and 6 km deep to the south from highway M4. Specific parameters of the functioning of the security corridor will be agreed between the Defense Ministries of the Turkish Republicand the Russian Federation within 7 days.
3- On March 15, 2020, joint Turkish-Russian patrolling will begin along highway M4 from the settlement of Trumba (2 km to the west of Saraqib) to the settlement of Ain-Al-Havr.
This additional protocol enters into force from the moment of signing.
Done in Moscow on 5 March, 2020 in three copies, in the Turkish, Russian and English languages, all texts having equal legal force.
Signatures:
For Republic of Turkey For Russian Federation
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
The Pakistan rollercoaster
Pakistan is in a period of neither high promise nor crisis. An expert group of independent academics, policy analysts, and retired government has taken the opportunity to lay out a range of concrete proposals for US policymakers to shape the bilateral relations. On March 3, the Middle East Institute hosted a panel discussion with some of the participants on “Pathways to a Stable and Sustainable Relationship between Pakistan and the United States.” The discussion featured eight speakers:
Syed Mohammed Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan studies, MEI
William Milam: Former US Ambassador to Pakistan
Touqir Hussain: Visiting professor at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities
Dana Marshall: President, Transnational Strategy Group
Polly Nayak: Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Institute
Pakistan-US relations
Feierstein described US-Pakistan relations as a mistrust-driven roller coaster while Siddiqui emphasized economic cooperation, culture exchange, and regional development, following a period of security focus in the 2000s. Weinbaum thinks relations have been unstable, waxing and waning, climbing to heights of interdependence and sinking to mutual recrimination. Hussain attributed the unsustainability to contradictions in strategic interests, which led to the 1998-2001 US sanctions on Pakistan.
Why now?
Weinbaum noted that today is a period of calm without major crises in the region. It’s an opportune moment to improve cooperation and put the relationship on a solid footing. We should seek better understanding as well as awareness of differences. Pakistan is critical to US regional interests in terms of eradicating ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates, achieving a stable Afghanistan, and alleviating the threat of nuclear proliferation. Hussain added that while the US is withdrawing from Afghanistan, it should continue its proactive engagement with South Asia, maintaining good relations with both India and Pakistan in the long run. Both Nayak and Milam believe the period before the upcoming election is an opportunity to address key issues in specific areas.
What the proposals are about?
Ali said the proposals focusing on Pakistan-US strategic interests, including recommendations on intelligence sharing between US and Pakistan, counterterrorism cooperation, peace between Pakistan and India, the US role in crisis management, China’s investments in Pakistan, clean energy, US investments, etc. The proposals aim to balance security with civil society and human rights, which can increase US diplomatic status in the region.
Nayak believes nuclear weapons should not be the heart of rebuilding relations. Normalization should rely on strategic economic cooperation because Pakistan faces deficits and underemployment. The proposals attempt to expand business and navigate differences in corporate and social culture.
Marshall stated that Pakistan needs more commercial and economic opportunities. Establishing a reconstruction zone could incentivize investment on border zone between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US can leverage its strategic relations with Pakistan by tying trade to security.
RSS - Posts
