Age matters
I’ve enjoyed testifying many times in front of Joe Biden, who was a stalwart of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee before he became Vice President to Barack Obama. He is well-informed and judicious, even if I have disagreed with him on issues like calling Macedonia Macedonia and whether Serbia merited candidacy for accession to the European Union. Senator Biden was genuinely interested in hearing from witnesses at Senate hearings and treated them with respect.
It is now more than ten years since our last encounter. Neither the Vice President nor I are the same people we were before 2008. He has had the extraordinary experience of governing with Barack Obama, whom I admire even if I think he made terrible mistakes, especially in Syria and Libya. I have become a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, a great international affairs school that allows me to learn every day as much as I teach my students. The world has moved on too. The unipolar moment has ended, the war on terror has failed, and geopolitical competition is intensifying.
Is Joe Biden the right person to install in the White House today?
I was ready for someone a lot younger. It seemed to me that a candidate in their 40s or 50s would appeal more to Gen Xers. My baby boomer generation seems exhausted, not to mention Biden’s “post-war cohort.” But amazingly the competition came down to people who are all in their 70s: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Michael Bloomberg in addition to Biden. Warren and Bloomberg (he dropped out while I was writing this post) aren’t really contenders, but they were still in the race last night.
I don’t really know what to make of this, but the implications need to be examined. Both Sanders (78) and Biden (77) are doubtful for a second term. So the question of who gets the vice presidential nod is more important than usual. In either case it will likely be a woman. Kamala Harris (55) is one obvious choice. Though she didn’t do brilliantly in the race for the nomination, a woman who is smart, an experienced prosecutor, black and (east) Indian, and from California touches a lot of appealing demographics. Amy Klobuchar (59) is another smart, experienced prosecutor from a state that, unlike California, will be in contention, Minnesota.
Another implication is the need for renewal in the Democratic Party. Its flag bearers in the House and Senate are Nancy Pelosi (79) and Charles Schumer (a relatively youthful 69). I admire their experience and skill in managing President Trump, even if the successful impeachment failed in the Senate to lead to remove him from office. Pelosi in particular has repeatedly made the President look like the fool he is. Schumer has also had his moments, especially when he let Trump take responsibility for closing down the US government. But no matter how good a competitor is, passing the baton is a crucial part of any relay race. The older Ds need to make sure it is done well.
There is no lack of youthful talent among the Democrats. The campaign for the nomination showcased not only Harris and Klobuchar, but also their fellow Senator Cory Booker, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Secretary Julian Castro. Andrew Yang, Deval Patrick, and Michael Bennett are also potential future notables, judging from their performances on the campaign trail and in debates. There are lots of others in Congress: Senator Chris Murphy stands out in my mind as someone all but destined for Secretary of State.
On the Republican side of the equation, it is harder to know what to say. There was no lack of younger, truly conservative talent running for the nomination against Donald Trump in 2016, but they split the primary votes, allowing him to win. The conservatives have now mostly thrown in the towel and reconciled themselves to his peculiar brand of egotistical would-be authoritarianism. I can hope Mitt Romney will find the will and the means to rescue the Republican party from the racist and xenophobic cesspool into which it has fallen, but the odds are not good. Now Senator Romney is not a youngster either: 72. It could take a decade or more for the Republicans to recover from Trump, if they recover at all.
Age matters. I’m allowed to say it. I’m 74.
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Stevenson’s army, March 4
-NYT says Iran has enough fuel for a bomb.
– Trump talks with a Taliban leader, while the US strikes at Taliban.
– David Ignatius warns of trouble in Jordan.
– EU supports Greek efforts to seal border.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 3
-Politico reports State-Defense clash over Patriots to Turkey.
– George Packer describes how Trump has subdued the Deep State, targeting and humiliating career professionals in State and Justice.
-SecState Pompeo says Congress will be informed of secret agreements on Afghanistan.
-Here’s the transcript of his TV interview on the topic.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 2
– The Afghan peace deal may break down over prisoner exchanges.
– The Russo-Turkish understanding over Syria is breaking down. And Greece is sending troops to its border.
– The effort to find a new Iraqi premier has broken down.
-North Korea’s missile test moratorium has ended.
– A federal judge has ruled that Ken Cuccinelli’s acting appoint is illegal under the Vacancy Act — and also that two of his decisions are nullified. That’s a consequence of using Actings improperly.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 1
An agreement has been signed; many difficult steps to follow. NYT analysis.
U.S., analyst of military contractors wonders whether they will go or stay.
CNAS has numbers on recent US sanctions.
Authorities matter: NYT says US is considering invoking Defense Production Act of 1950 to force production of masks and other medical items to deal with coronavirus.
WaPo details the conflict and bureaucratic disarray as the administration tackled the coronavirus.
NYT graphics show how Afghanistan became an”invisible war.”
David Sanger assesses the deal with the Taliban.
Another assessment from the Atlantic.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks|February 2-8
- Syria’s Tragedy, Our Lessons| March 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Middle East Program and Humanitarian Agenda are pleased to host David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, to discuss the current crisis in Idlib, the dangerous lessons of war, and how Syria could serve as a model for future conflicts.
Jacob Kurtzer, Interim Director of the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda, will provide welcome remarks to open the discussion. Mr. Miliband’s keynote address will be followed by a Q&A moderated by Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director of the Middle East Program.
Speakers:
David Miliband: President and CEO, International Rescue Committee
Jon B. Alterman: Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security; Director of the Middle East Program
Jacob Kurtzer: Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
- Leveraging a Moment of Change: Pathways to a Sustainable U.S.-Pakistan Relationship | March 3, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has never been easy or stable, and in recent years has come under increasing strain. Yet both countries have a vital stake in the maintenance of a working relationship. Several factors have complicated prospects for bilateral cooperation in the past, leading to a growing strategic divergence in how both countries view one another, and their interests vis-a-vis other regional players. Perhaps the biggest shortcoming in the Pakistan-US relationship has been that both sides have tried to address the issues between them without common frames of reference, resulting in differences of perceptions and policies.
An expert group of academics, policy analysts, and retired government officials have recently convened at the Middle East institute to study the Pakistan-US relationship. The product of their discussions is a paper that explores a range of ideas and concrete proposals designed to move the relationship in a positive and stable direction.
Speakers:
Syed Mohammad Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
- Crash Landing into Freedom: The Stories of Former North Korean Soldiers| March 4, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for an event with two former North Korean soldiers as they discuss their escapes from the hermit kingdom. U.S. Representative Ted Yoho will present keynote remarks on the need for greater freedom across Asia.
Weeks before critical diplomatic talks between the Trump administration and North Korea commenced, OH Cheong Seong successfully attempted a daring escape within the heavily guarded demilitarized zone. Under gunfire, Seong, a driver in a North Korean military police unit, drove a truck to the border and crossed by foot into South Korea. For the first time in public in the United States, he will discuss his escape and the factors that compelled him to flee.
LEE Unggil, a former solider in North Korea’s 11th Corps Special Forces who escaped while completing university studies, will explain the plight of North Korean soldiers and the motivations for those seeking freedom.
Panelists will give insight into what life is like inside the country and describe why so many North Koreans, if given the choice, would choose freedom.
Speakers:
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute
Colonel Steve Lee, U.S. Army (Ret.): Senior Vice President, Korea Defense Veterans Associations
OH Cheong Song: Former Driver in the North Korean Panmunjom Military Police Unit of the Operations Bureau
LEE Unggil: Former Member of the North Korean People’s Army 11th Corps Special Forces and Member of the North Korean People’s Liberation Front
Congressman Ted Yoho: U.S. Representative, Florida’s 3rd District, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation
- The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security| March 4, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
On January 8, President Trump addressed the nation following an Iranian missile attack on U.S. positions in Iraq. Buried in his speech was a fascinating aside. The president argued that:
“…America has achieved energy independence … these historic accomplishments changed our strategic priorities … we are now the number-one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil.”
Yet the Trump administration’s own policies in the region contradict his statement. Since 2016, the United States has doubled down on its military presence in the Middle East, adding more than 14,000 troops to a region already full of U.S. bases. And the Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Iran that uses oil-focused sanctions in an attempt to weaken Iran’s regional influence and perhaps even topple the regime.
The Iran crisis thus highlights the changing relationship between U.S. foreign policy and global oil markets. If — as the president suggests — the United States is indeed energy independent, why have our strategic priorities not changed? Why do we remain overcommitted to the Middle East? And what can sanctions on Iran tell us about the increasing weaponization of global markets by U.S. policymakers?
Speakers:
Rosemary Kelanic: Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Ellan Wald: President, Transversal Consulting
Joshua Rovner: Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University
Emma Ashford: Research Fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute
- Why Should the US Care about Ukraine | March 4, 2020 | 2:30 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Throughout the recent impeachment hearings, witness after witness claimed that support for Ukraine is obviously in US national interests, without clearly explaining why. In response, on December 22, 2019, The National Interest published an article by George Beebe in which he compared current US policy toward Ukraine to the “groupthink” that led to disastrous US policies in Vietnam. Ambassador John Herbst responded to Beebe, arguing that the United States has vital strategic interests in maintaining a strong partnership with Ukraine.
For the first time, Ambassador John Herbst and Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, face off against George Beebe, Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for National Interest, and Dr. Will Ruger, Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute and Vice President for Research, Charles Koch Foundation, in a debate. Melinda Haring, Deputy Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council and Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor, The National Interest, will co-moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Ambassador John E. Herbst: Former US Ambassador to Ukraine; Director of Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Dr. Alina Polyakova: President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis
George Beebe: Vice President ad Director of Studies, Center for National Interest
Dr. Will Ruger: Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute
- The Outlook on US-China Relations| March 4, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University SAIS | Register Here
This panel discussion will examine American policy, trade, Taiwan, and other key factors affecting the US-China relations.
Speakers:
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy: Former U.S. Ambassador to China (1991-1995), USCPF Board Member
Ambassador Craig Allen: President, US-China Business Council, Former U.S. Ambassador to Brunei (2014-2018)
Robert Sutter: Professor of Practice of International Affairs, Elliott School, GWU
David J. Keegan: Former Deputy Director of the American Institute in Taiwan. Former Director, Office of Taiwan Policy, Bureau of Eastern Asian and Pacific Affairs
- US-Brazil Economic Relations: The Path to A Trade Agreement | March 5, 2020 | 9:30 AM -12:00 PM| Atlantic Council | Register Here
The United States and Brazil have long been critical commercial partners. Now, as the United States and Brazil double down on delivering on a stronger bilateral agenda, the moment is ripe to help guide discussions on practical next steps.
What actions can Brazil and the US pursue in the short term to achieve deeper collaboration? How will those pave the way for greater growth and prosperity in both countries?
The event will also mark the launch of the report “US-Brazil Trade and FDI: Enhancing the Bilateral Economic Relationship,” authored by Ken Hyatt and Lisa Schineller on the US side and Abrão Neto and Daniel Godinho on the Brazil side.
Speakers:
The Hon. Darin Lahood: US Representative (R-IL), US Congress
Sergio Segovia: President, Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, ApexBrasil
Nestor Forster: Appointed Ambassador of Brazil to the US
Joe Semsar: Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva: Secretary of Bilateral and Regional Negotiations in the Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil
Maria Cameron: Deputy Director, Office of Latin America and the Caribbean, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Kevin O’Reilly: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, US Department of State
Lisa Schroeter: Global Director of Trade & Investment Policy, Dow Chemical Company
Lisa Schineller: Managing Director, Latin American Sovereign Ratings, S&P Global Ratings
Abrão Neto: Executive Vice President, AmCham Brasil; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Former Secretary of Foreign Trade, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
Kenneth Hyatt: Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group; Former Acting Under Secretary and Deputy Under Secretary for International Trade, US Department of Commerce
Jason Marczak: Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Roberta Braga: Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
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